Sector Alpha Week of 2026-07-24
Sector Alpha — machine-written from the numbers · Data as of 2026-07-24

Happy Forgings Ltd

HAPPYFORGE
Castings, Forgings & Fastners

Happy Forgings Ltd's price has outrun its earnings. +69.7% in a year against EPS +12.6% — the market is paying now for delivery later.

The sharpest disagreement: the price moved +69.7% in a year while annual EPS moved +12.6% — the difference is re-rating, and re-rating has to be repaid with earnings.

The price is in a confirmed uptrend (36 weeks in) while the P/E sits at the 97th percentile of its own 3-year range. Underneath, the last four quarters read improving — profit +23.5% year on year, and 114% of the last 3 years' profit arrived as cash. What settles it: whether earnings grow into a price that has already moved.

Stage
Consistent
partial read
Price
₹1,595
+69.7% 1Y
P/E
51.0×
97th pctile
of its own 3-year range
Revenue (Mar 26)
₹424 Cr
+20.5% YoY
Profit (Mar 26)
₹84.0 Cr
+23.5% YoY
Operating margin
31.0%
+2.0 pp YoY
ROCE
18%
FY26
ROIC
14.3%
vs WACC 12.0% → +2.3 pp
Cash conversion
114%
of profit, last 3 FY
01 · Price story

Price story Before the numbers, the tape. A stock price moves through four repeating seasons: a flat base (stage 1), an advance (2), a top (3), a decline (4). Where the price sits in that cycle frames everything below.

Happy Forgings Ltd trades at ₹1,595, in a confirmed uptrend and 36 weeks into that stage. That is +26.7% against its own 200-day average. It sits at 100% of a 52-week range of ₹886 to ₹1,595. On relative strength it has been ahead of the NIFTY 500 on a trailing-13-week view for 46 straight weeks.

Today the stock is in a confirmed uptrend — week 36 of stage 2, confirmed. At ₹1,595 it trades +26.7% versus its 200-day average and sits at 100% of its 52-week range (₹886–₹1,595).

Jul 26: ₹1,595 Weekly closing price (₹) with 50- and 200-day averages; shaded bands mark the price stage (grey base, green advance, amber top, red decline). 3-year window.
+26.7% versus the 200-day line, week 36 of stage 2
Price50-day avg200-day avg
S4S2S4S1S2₹1,661₹1,422₹1,184₹945₹706₹1,595₹1,259Dec 23Aug 24Apr 25Dec 25Jul 26
S4S2S4S1S2₹1,661₹1,422₹1,184₹945₹706₹1,595₹1,259Dec 23Apr 25Jul 26
Beating or trailing, week by week since 2023 Each cell is one week from 2023 to now (140 weeks): the stock's trailing 13-week return minus the NIFTY 500's, green ahead / red behind (±25% ramp). Grey cells are the 13-week warm-up or weeks where the NIFTY 500 reading is not held.
trailing 13-week return vs the NIFTY 500
Dec 23Jul 26

Against the market, two honest reads. Cumulative: over the last 2.6 years the stock moved +55% while the NIFTY 500 moved +20% — ahead of the index over the full window. Recent form: on a trailing-13-week view the stock has been ahead for 46 straight weeks — the ribbon below is that same metric, week by week.

What would end the trend, mechanically: two Friday closes in a row below the 200-day line. That is the exit rule — no debates.

→ The trend is one thing; the bill is another. Are you paying up for it? Next: the P/E sits at the 97th percentile of its own range.

02 · Valuation

Valuation P/E is the price of ₹1 of annual profit: how many rupees the market pays for each rupee the company earns in a year.

Happy Forgings Ltd trades at 51.0× P/E, at the pricey end of its own range (97th percentile). Its long-run median P/E is 39.9×, measured across 2.6 years of weekly readings. This places the multiple against the stock’s own record, and says nothing about what the business is worth.

Today's P/E of 51.0× is at the pricey end of its own range (97th percentile), against a long-run median of 39.9× measured over 2.6 years of weekly readings. This is a comparison against the stock's own history — not a claim about what it is worth.

P/E 51.0× vs a 39.9× long-run median P/E, weekly (left axis); earnings per share, trailing twelve months, weekly (right axis). 2.6-year window; loss-period spikes above 52× shown pinned at the top. The eps (ttm) bars are red where the reading is lower than the quarter before.
at the pricey end of its own range (97th percentile)
P/EMedianEPS (TTM) (quarterly)
54.1×₹34.546.9×₹25.939.8×₹17.332.6×₹8.625.4×₹0.0×51.00×₹32Dec 23Sep 24May 25Jan 26Jul 26
54.1×₹34.546.9×₹25.939.8×₹17.332.6×₹8.625.4×₹0.0×51.00×₹32Dec 23May 25Jul 26
PEG 1.57 PEG ratio per quarter — the P/E divided by the earnings-growth rate. The dashed line marks 1.0: below it the growth is cheap against the multiple, above it the price already prices the growth in. Last 9 quarters.
above 1.0, the multiple already banks the growth
PEGPEG = 1.0
2.2×1.9×1.5×1.2×0.9××1.57×Q4 FY24Q2 FY25Q4 FY25Q2 FY26Q4 FY26
2.2×1.9×1.5×1.2×0.9××1.57×Q4 FY24Q4 FY25Q4 FY26
P/E
51.0×
97th percentile of 3y
PEG
2.32
as reported

🚨 Why the multiple sits where it does: over the past year annual EPS moved +12.6% against a +69.7% price move — the price outran earnings, pushing the multiple UP its own range.

Put together: the multiple is full against its own past, so the story rests on the earnings line underneath it, not the multiple.

→ Cheap or dear rides on the earnings. Are they actually growing? Next: the fundamental stage — where the business sits in its arc, and how growth has compounded.

03 · Stage: Consistent

Stage: Consistent Every business sits somewhere on a fundamental arc, and this page names the spot before anything else. The last twelve quarters of revenue, profit and EPS growth — plus the return the business earns on its capital — are read as curves: Deteriorating (the curves are falling), Turning around (a trough has just formed and the last few quarters lift off it), Improving (the climb off the trough is sustained), Consistent (steadily positive with healthy returns), Topping out (still high but decelerating from the peak). When the curves genuinely disagree the read is Mixed; too little history is No read. CAGR (compound annual growth rate) is the smooth yearly pace that turns the starting value into the latest one — the fairest way to compare growth across different time spans. Read the columns together: if the 1-year number towers over the 10-year, recent growth is running hotter than the long-run trend. A dash means that window is not held, or the base year was a loss (where a growth rate is not meaningful).

Happy Forgings Ltd reads as consistent on its fundamental arc. Consistent — revenue and profit growth have stayed positive through the window, with ROCE at 20.3% and holding. The read is built from 11 quarters across 3 curves, on partial evidence.

Three growth curves, twelve quarters Year-on-year growth of trailing-twelve-month revenue (left axis), profit and EPS (right axis — they swing far wider), % at each quarter-end. Where the trailing-twelve-month history is short, the curve falls back to single-quarter year-on-year growth — noisier, and the classifier smooths and caps base-effect spikes before reading. A missing point means that reading is not held for the quarter.
the trajectory the stage is read from
RevenueProfitEPS
22%41%17%30%12%19%6.4%8.0%1.2%−3.0%%%20.5%23.5%12.7%Jun 23Sep 24Mar 26
22%41%17%30%12%19%6.4%8.0%1.2%−3.0%%%20.5%23.5%12.7%Jun 23Sep 24Mar 26
ROCE Trailing-twelve-month operating profit (before interest and tax) as a share of average capital employed — total assets minus current liabilities, the standard textbook basis, %.
the return curve, computed quarterly
ROCE
28%26%24%21%19%%20.3%Jun 23Sep 24Mar 26
28%26%24%21%19%%20.3%Jun 23Sep 24Mar 26
Revenue growth
Rising
latest +20.5% · span +2.6% to +20.5%
Profit growth
Rising
latest +23.5% · span +0.0% to +30.0%
ROCE
Steady high
latest 20.3% · span 19.9%–27.5%

Why it matters: steady curves with healthy returns are the compounding setup — the risk is the price, not the business.

One or more growth curves carry a base-effect spike — a large year-on-year move off a near-zero or loss-making comparable quarter. Those spikes are capped before the classifier reads the trajectory, and shown pinned on the chart, so a single distorted quarter does not drive the stage call.

A partial read: at least one curve is short, or the returns curve is not the computed quarterly series — hold the stage word a little more loosely.

Growth, year by year: revenue +9.7% in FY26, profit +13.1% Year-over-year growth per fiscal year, %: revenue (left axis); net profit and EPS (right axis — profit growth swings far wider). Zero line drawn.
Revenue YoYProfit YoYEPS YoY
53%78%32%31%11%−17%−10%−64%−31%−111%%%9.7%13.1%FY18FY22FY26
53%78%32%31%11%−17%−10%−64%−31%−111%%%9.7%13.1%FY18FY22FY26
TTM growth by quarter Trailing-twelve-month growth versus the year-ago TTM, per quarter, %: revenue (left axis); profit and EPS (right axis). The acceleration read compares the last 4 quarters (+9.8%) with the last 8 annualized (+6.7%).
revenue accelerating, profit stabilising
Revenue TTM YoYProfit TTM YoYEPS TTM YoY
10%24%8.5%19%6.7%14%4.9%8.5%3.1%3.4%%%9.8%12.7%Jun 23Sep 24Mar 26
10%24%8.5%19%6.7%14%4.9%8.5%3.1%3.4%%%9.8%12.7%Jun 23Sep 24Mar 26
Compound annual growth rate (%) Compound annual growth rate over each window, %. Revenue, profit and EPS from fiscal-year figures; share price is the price CAGR over the same spans. A dash = that window is not held, or the base was a loss.
1yr3yr5yr10yr
Revenue+9.7%+8.9%+21.5%
Profit+13.1%+13.1%+28.6%
EPS+12.6%+11.1%−49.4%
Share price+69.7%
Revenue YoY (Mar 26)
+20.5%
latest quarter vs a year ago
Profit YoY (Mar 26)
+23.5%
latest quarter vs a year ago
Revenue 10y
13.8%
long-run compound pace

→ The stage names the trajectory. Next: the revenue line that produces it, quarter by quarter.

04 · 4-Factor Sector Score

4-Factor Sector Score

55.7/100 — rank 8 of 19 in Castings, Forgings & Fastners · 96% evidence confidence

Happy Forgings Ltd scores 55.7 out of 100 against the 19 companies it is compared with in Castings, Forgings & Fastners, ranking 8. Strong business, demanding price: keep it on the quality list, but require either earnings upgrades or valuation compression.

The four contributions add to the total exactly: 19.1 + 17.2 + 5.5 + 13.9 = 55.7. This is the SAME number shown on the sector comparison — it is computed once, for the whole peer set, and read here.

What would change it: The read weakens if profit growth turns negative or margin improvement reverses while sector-relative strength deteriorates.

05 · Revenue

Revenue Revenue is the top line: everything the company billed its customers in the period.

Happy Forgings Ltd reported ₹424 Cr of revenue in the Mar 26 quarter, +20.5% year on year. That is the 10th straight quarter of year-on-year growth. Over 8 years it has compounded at 13.8% a year. The last full year, FY26, came in at ₹1,546 Cr. The last four reported quarters add to ₹1,546 Cr.

Happy Forgings Ltd reported ₹424 Cr of revenue in the Mar 26 quarter, +20.5% year on year. That is the 10th straight quarter of year-on-year growth. Over 8 years it has compounded at 13.8% a year. The last full year, FY26, came in at ₹1,546 Cr. The last four reported quarters add to ₹1,546 Cr.

FY26 revenue came in at ₹1,546 Cr (+9.7% on the year), capping 8 years at 13.8% compound. The latest quarter (Mar 26) printed ₹424 Cr, +20.5% year on year — the 10th consecutive quarter of year-over-year growth.

FY26 revenue ₹1,546 Cr (+9.7% YoY) Revenue bars, ₹ Cr (left); YoY growth-% line (right). 9-year window. A bar is red when it is lower than the year before.
13.8% a year over 8 years
RevenueYoY growth
1.7k53%1.3k32%83511%417−10%0−31%₹ Cr%₹1,5469.7%FY18FY22FY26
1.7k53%1.3k32%83511%417−10%0−31%₹ Cr%₹1,5469.7%FY18FY22FY26
Mar 26: ₹424 Cr (+20.5% YoY) Quarterly revenue bars, ₹ Cr (left); YoY growth-% line (right). Last 12 quarters. A bar is red when it is lower than the quarter before.
10th straight quarter of growth
Revenue (quarterly)YoY growth
45822%34317%22912%1146.4%01.2%₹ Cr%₹42420.5%Jun 23Sep 24Mar 26
45822%34317%22912%1146.4%01.2%₹ Cr%₹42420.5%Jun 23Sep 24Mar 26

Pace check: the last four quarters averaged +9.8% growth against the decade's 13.8% — the current year is running slower than its own long-run rate.

Acceleration check: trailing-twelve-month revenue grew +9.8% over the last 4 quarters against +6.7%/yr over the last 8 — accelerating; TTM profit +12.7% vs +11.5%/yr — stabilising.

→ Revenue grew — did margins hold as it scaled? Next: 31.0% this quarter (+2.0 pp YoY).

06 · Operating margin

Operating margin Operating margin is what is left of every ₹100 of sales after running the business, before interest and tax. It is the cleanest read on pricing power and cost control.

Happy Forgings Ltd's operating margin is 31.0% in the Mar 26 quarter, +2.0 percentage points against the same quarter a year ago. That is the widest this company has ever printed on a full-year basis. Across 9 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged 25.0% to 30.0%. The current quarter is running above every full year in that window.

Happy Forgings Ltd's operating margin is 31.0% in the Mar 26 quarter, +2.0 percentage points against the same quarter a year ago. That is the widest this company has ever printed on a full-year basis. Across 9 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged 25.0% to 30.0%. The current quarter is running above every full year in that window.

The latest quarter's operating margin is 31.0%, +2.0 pp against the same quarter a year ago. Across 9 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged 25.0%–30.0%, and FY26's 30.0% is the top of that band — a record year.

Why the margin moved: operating margin went +2.4 pp year on year while gross margin went +0.7 pp — the gain came mostly below the gross line: operating leverage, with costs spread over a bigger revenue base.

Worth repeating from the valuation section: cheap against its own history on record margins is not the same thing as cheap — a record margin flatters every ratio built on top of it.

FY26: 30.0% Operating margin by fiscal year, %, line (left); year-on-year change in the margin, in percentage points, line (right). 9-year window.
the widest a 25.0–30.0% band over 9 years
operating marginYoY change (pp)
30%2.2%29%1.4%28%0.5%26%−0.4%25%−1.2%%%30%1%FY18FY22FY26
30%2.2%29%1.4%28%0.5%26%−0.4%25%−1.2%%%30%1%FY18FY22FY26
Mar 26: 31.0% operating margin (+2.0 pp YoY) Quarterly operating margin, %, line (left); year-on-year change in the margin, in percentage points, line (right). Last 12 quarters. Operating profit as a share of revenue, per quarter.
Operating marginYoY change (pp)
31%3.3%30%2.2%29%1.0%28%−0.2%27%−1.3%%%31%2%Jun 23Sep 24Mar 26
31%3.3%30%2.2%29%1.0%28%−0.2%27%−1.3%%%31%2%Jun 23Sep 24Mar 26

→ Margins held — did that reach the bottom line? Next: profit +23.5% in the latest quarter.

07 · Net profit

Net profit Net profit is what survives every cost, interest and tax — the number EPS, dividends and book value all grow from.

Happy Forgings Ltd earned ₹84.0 Cr of net profit in the Mar 26 quarter, +23.5% year on year. It is the 7th consecutive quarter of growth. Full-year FY26 profit was ₹302 Cr. The 8-year compound rate is 22.9%. That is 19.8% of the quarter's revenue. The same quarter a year earlier earned ₹68.0 Cr.

Happy Forgings Ltd earned ₹84.0 Cr of net profit in the Mar 26 quarter, +23.5% year on year. It is the 7th consecutive quarter of growth. Full-year FY26 profit was ₹302 Cr. The 8-year compound rate is 22.9%. That is 19.8% of the quarter's revenue. The same quarter a year earlier earned ₹68.0 Cr.

Mar 26 profit was ₹84.0 Cr, +23.5% year on year — the 7th consecutive quarter of growth. On the full year, FY26 printed ₹302 Cr (+13.1%), and the 8-year compound rate is 22.9%.

FY26 profit ₹302 Cr (+13.1% YoY) Net profit bars, ₹ Cr (left); YoY growth-% line (right). 9-year window. A bar is red when it is lower than the year before.
22.9% a year over 8 years
Net profitYoY growth
32672%24548%16325%821.2%0−22%₹ Cr%₹30213.1%FY18FY22FY26
32672%24548%16325%821.2%0−22%₹ Cr%₹30213.1%FY18FY22FY26
Mar 26: ₹84.0 Cr (+23.5% YoY) Quarterly net profit bars, ₹ Cr (left); YoY growth-% line (right). Last 12 quarters. A bar is red when it is lower than the quarter before.
7th straight quarter of growth
Net profit (quarterly)YoY growth
9141%6830%4519%238.0%0−3.0%₹ Cr%₹8423.5%Jun 23Sep 24Mar 26
9141%6830%4519%238.0%0−3.0%₹ Cr%₹8423.5%Jun 23Sep 24Mar 26

Why profit moved: revenue contributed +20.5% and the margin +2.0 pp — the quarter was margin-led: most of the profit growth came from keeping more of each sale.

Pace comparison, last four quarters: profit +12.7% vs revenue +9.8%. Profit and revenue are moving roughly in step.

→ Profit rose — but did the cash follow? Next: 114% of the last 3 years' profit arrived as cash.

08 · Cash flow — the router

Cash flow — the router The P&L says what was earned; the cash-flow statement says what actually arrived. Operating cash flow (CFO) against profit is the cleanest lie detector in the accounts.

Over the last 3 fiscal years 114% of Happy Forgings Ltd's reported profit arrived as operating cash — the cash follows the profit. In FY26 that was ₹445 Cr of operating cash against ₹302 Cr of profit. After ₹403 Cr of capital spending, ₹42.0 Cr was left as free cash.

FY26: operating cash of ₹445 Cr against reported profit of ₹302 Cr, leaving free cash of ₹42.0 Cr after ₹403 Cr of capital spending. Across the last 3 fiscal years the conversion rate is 114% of profit.

Cash-flow readings here are annual — that is the resolution our series carries, so this section moves once a year.

FY26: CFO ₹445 Cr vs profit ₹302 Cr Operating cash flow and net profit by fiscal year, ₹ Cr; the line is free cash flow (CFO minus capital spending). 8-year window, annual resolution.
114% of 3-year profit arrived as cash
Operating cashNet profitFree cash
494316137−42−220₹ Cr₹445₹302₹42FY19FY22FY26
494316137−42−220₹ Cr₹445₹302₹42FY19FY22FY26
FY26: CFO = 147% of profit (three-year rate 114%) Operating cash as a share of net profit, per fiscal year, % (line). Dashed line = 100% — every unit of profit arriving as cash.
Conversion100%
223%178%134%89%44%%147%FY19FY22FY26
223%178%134%89%44%%147%FY19FY22FY26

Why conversion sits at 114%: the cash cycle tightened 32 days between FY21 and FY26 — cash that used to wait in the cycle now reaches the bank sooner.

Router verdict: the bigger cash user is investment — capital spending ran 3.6× depreciation over three years, so the next section's job is to check what that build-out is buying.

→ So follow the cash to where it goes. Next: ₹823 Cr of building over 3 years.

09 · Where the cash goes

Where the cash goes Working capital is the cash tied up between paying suppliers and getting paid: debtor days (customers owe), inventory days (stock waits), and the cash conversion cycle (the whole loop, in days of sales).

Happy Forgings Ltd's cash conversion cycle runs 193 days in FY26, down from 225 days in FY21. Capital spending ran ₹823 Cr over the last 3 years. At FY26 sales of ₹1,546 Cr each day of that cycle holds about ₹4.2 Cr, so roughly ₹817 Cr sits inside the business at any moment.

FY26: debtors at 93 days, inventory at 134 days — roughly 4.4 months of stock waiting to sell; that is where the cash sits while it waits — for a full cycle of 193 days, tighter than FY21's 225.

The full loop: cash goes out to suppliers and production on day 0; stock waits 134 days to sell; customers pay about 93 days after that; and suppliers themselves are paid at 34 days — netting out to the 193-day cycle.

In money terms: at FY26 sales of ₹1,546 Cr, each day of the cycle holds about ₹4.2 Cr — so the 193-day loop keeps roughly ₹817 Cr sitting inside the business at any moment.

FY26: a 193-day cash cycle Debtor days, inventory days, payable days and the cash conversion cycle by fiscal year. 9-year window.
−32 days vs FY21
Cash cycleInventory daysDebtor daysPayable days
2421841277012days193d134d93d34dFY18FY20FY22FY24FY26
2421841277012days193d134d93d34dFY18FY22FY26

On the investment side: capital spending of ₹823 Cr over the last 3 fiscal years against ₹231 Cr of depreciation — the company is building well ahead of wear-and-tear. Capital work-in-progress stands at ₹237 Cr (FY26) — capacity paid for but not yet earning.

FY26: capex ₹403 Cr, work-in-progress ₹237 Cr Capital spending per fiscal year, ₹ Cr (bars); capital work-in-progress, ₹ Cr (line). Quarterly capital-spending history is not held for India — annual is the honest resolution.
a build-out
CapexWork-in-progress
4353262181090₹ Cr₹403₹237FY19FY20FY22FY24FY26
4353262181090₹ Cr₹403₹237FY19FY22FY26

The synthesis: the cash is going into capacity, not disappearing into the cycle — the question becomes whether the new capacity earns.

→ Does all this activity actually earn its cost of capital? Next: ROCE is 18% and the ROIC − WACC spread is +2.3 pp.

10 · Return on capital

Return on capital Return on capital employed (ROCE) is the profit the whole business earns on all the money in it — equity and debt together. It is the single best test of whether growth creates value or just size.

Happy Forgings Ltd earns a ROCE of 18% in FY26. That is up from a trough of 18% in FY21. Return on invested capital clears the cost of that capital by +2.3 percentage points, so growth here adds value rather than only size. The wiring behind it is 19.5% net margin on 0.59× asset turns.

FY26 ROCE is 18%, recovered from a FY21 trough of 18% — the full ladder below shows the fall and the climb, undoctored.

Why the return is what it is — the wiring (FY26): 19.5% net margin × 0.59× asset turns × 1.24× balance-sheet leverage ≈ 14.3% on equity. Margin is doing the heavy lifting; leverage is modest — this is an earned return, not a borrowed one.

The capstone test — ROIC − WACC: 14.3% − 12.0% = a +2.3 pp spread. The 12.0% is a standing assumption for the cost of capital in India, not a per-stock estimate — read the sign and the size of the spread, not the decimals. Positive but thin — value creation with little room for error.

FY26: ROCE 18% Return on capital employed by fiscal year, % (line); ROIC by fiscal year, % (line). 8-year window, dips included. Dashed line = the 12.0% cost of capital used on this page.
the climb back from FY21's 18%
ROCEROIC (annual)WACC
34%28%22%16%10%%18%14.4%FY19FY22FY26
34%28%22%16%10%%18%14.4%FY19FY22FY26
Q4 FY26: ROCE 17.6% (TTM) vs WACC 12.0% Trailing-twelve-month ROCE and ROIC, per quarter, %; dashed line = the cost of capital. Last 12 quarters, put on a trailing-twelve-month basis and anchored to the annual figure.
ROCE (TTM)ROIC (TTM)WACC
28%24%20%15%11%%17.6%13.9%Q4 FY23Q2 FY25Q4 FY26
28%24%20%15%11%%17.6%13.9%Q4 FY23Q2 FY25Q4 FY26

→ Returns like these — is the balance sheet borrowing to make them? Next: debt-to-equity is 0.16.

11 · Debt

Debt Debt-to-equity says how much of the business is funded by borrowings. Low is the safe corner; the trend matters as much as the level.

Happy Forgings Ltd carries total debt of ₹330 Cr against shareholder equity of ₹2,128 Cr as of Mar 26, a debt-to-equity of 0.16 — effectively unlevered. On the annual view that ratio went from 0.22 in FY23 to 0.16 in FY26. The returns elsewhere on this page are therefore earned rather than borrowed.

Mar 26: total debt of ₹330 Cr against shareholder equity of ₹2,128 Cr — a debt-to-equity of 0.16. On the annual view, debt-to-equity went from 0.22 (FY23) to 0.16 (FY26). The returns on this page are earned, not borrowed.

FY26: debt ₹330 Cr at 0.16× equity Total debt by fiscal year, ₹ Cr (bars); debt-to-equity, × (line). 4-year window.
Total debtDebt-to-equity
3560.23×2670.19×1780.15×890.12×00.08×₹ Cr×₹3300.16×FY23FY24FY26
3560.23×2670.19×1780.15×890.12×00.08×₹ Cr×₹3300.16×FY23FY24FY26
Mar 26: debt ₹330 Cr, debt-to-equity 0.16 Total debt per quarter, ₹ Cr (bars); debt-to-equity, × (line). Last 12 quarters. India reports the full balance sheet half-yearly, so the intervening quarter carries the prior reading forward.
Total debt (quarterly)Debt-to-equity
3560.24×2670.20×1780.16×890.12×00.08×₹ Cr×₹3300.16×Mar 23Sep 24Mar 26
3560.24×2670.20×1780.16×890.12×00.08×₹ Cr×₹3300.16×Mar 23Sep 24Mar 26

→ Who owns this, and are they adding or leaving? Next: Domestic institutions cut 1.2 points over 8 quarters.

12 · Ownership

Ownership Who owns the stock, quarter by quarter: promoters (the controlling owners), foreign and domestic institutions, and the public. Steady accumulation by people close to the numbers is a signal; a quiet register is also an answer.

Domestic institutions cut 1.2 points of Happy Forgings Ltd over 8 quarters, the biggest move on the register. That takes domestic institutions to 15.5% of the company. Foreign institutions moved −0.4 points over the same window, to 1.9%. The register is read on the four disclosed classes only; nothing is inferred between filings.

The register over the last two years — Domestic institutions: −1.2 points over 8 quarters to 15.5%; Foreign institutions: −0.4 points over 8 quarters to 1.9%; Promoters: −0.1 points over 8 quarters to 78.5%.

🚨 Why the register moved: domestic institutions drove it (−1.2 points) — distribution into the market’s bid.

Fiscal-year ends: promoters −0.1 pts from Mar 24 to Mar 26 Shareholding at each fiscal-year end (March quarter), % of the company. 3 year-ends held.
PromotersForeign inst.Domestic inst.Public
85%62%40%17%−5.1%%78.5%1.7%16.5%3.3%Mar 24Mar 25Mar 26
85%62%40%17%−5.1%%78.5%1.7%16.5%3.3%Mar 24Mar 25Mar 26
Domestic institutions cut 1.2 points over 8 quarters Shareholding by holder class, % of the company, quarterly, last 11 quarters.
PromotersForeign inst.Domestic inst.Public
85%62%40%17%−5.1%%78.5%1.9%15.5%4.1%Dec 23Mar 25Jun 26
85%62%40%17%−5.1%%78.5%1.9%15.5%4.1%Dec 23Mar 25Jun 26

→ One last check: does the safety math agree? Next: the balance-sheet safety line.

13 · Safety line

Safety line The Z-score estimates how far a company sits from balance-sheet distress — above roughly 3 is safe, below roughly 1.8 is the danger zone. It was built for manufacturers, so it is not applied to banks and lenders.

Happy Forgings Ltd: the Z-score reads 13.40. A Z-score above roughly 3 reads as safe and below roughly 1.8 as the distress zone, so this sits well clear of distress. It is a distance-to-distress estimate from the balance sheet, not a forecast of failure.

Why it matters: a Z-score of 13.40 sits well clear of the distress zone — the balance sheet is not the risk here.

The safety line in one sentence: the Z-score reads 13.40.

Related companies · same sector · Castings, Forgings & Fastners Every company is compared on the shape of its own curves, not static ratios. The Revenue, EPS and ROCE columns each draw that company's last 12 quarters as a mini line of the ACTUAL level (trailing-twelve-month revenue and EPS, and the ROCE itself) — so a line that climbs is a business getting bigger, a line that sinks is one shrinking. The colour tracks the same line: green when it is rising or steadily healthy, amber when it is rolling over from a high (still elevated but turning down), red when it is falling, grey when flat or stuck. Colour and direction always agree — a green line never points down. The ROCE curve is the return on capital (annual readings for peers, so a slightly coarser line than the quarterly one at the top of this page). The Stage column then runs the same 12-quarter trajectory classifier used at the top of the page on each company and names where it sits. What lands a company in each bucket: CONSISTENT — growth stays positive across the window and returns are healthy (ROCE ≥ 15%, or ROE ≥ 12% for lenders); IMPROVING — profit or EPS fell into real decline, bottomed a few quarters back, and has climbed back to positive and held there; TURNING AROUND — the same kind of trough but more recent, with the latest quarters just lifting off it (an early, unconfirmed turn); TOPPING OUT — growth is still positive but decelerating hard from its own peak while returns have stopped rising; DETERIORATING — two or more growth curves are shrinking (latest below zero) and staying there, not one soft quarter; MIXED — the curves genuinely disagree, or no clean majority, so no single word fits; NO READ — fewer than eight usable quarters. It is a like-for-like read of every company against its own past, not a ranking against the group.
CompanyP/EMkt capRevenueEPSROCEStage
Happy Forgings Ltd this page51.0×₹15,247 CrConsistent
Bharat Forge Ltd91.1×₹1L CrMixed
Sona BLW Precision Forgings Ltd61.5×₹44,707 CrMixed
CIE Automotive India Ltd17.5×₹15,696 CrTurning around
Ramkrishna Forgings Ltd92.0×₹10,579 CrDeteriorating
Kennametal India Ltd52.2×₹6,116 CrDeteriorating
Balu Forge Industries Ltd20.3×₹5,264 CrMixed
Uniparts India Ltd19.3×₹3,113 CrMixed
Steelcast Ltd35.9×₹3,103 CrTopping out
Sundaram Clayton Ltd₹3,005 CrNo read
M M Forgings Ltd27.2×₹2,664 CrDeteriorating
Amic Forging Ltd70.5×₹1,992 CrNo read
Amic Forging Ltd58.9×₹1,485 Cr
Gala Precision Engineering Ltd40.4×₹1,469 CrTurning around
Nelcast Ltd24.1×₹1,170 CrTurning around
Alicon Castalloy Ltd26.6×₹1,044 CrMixed
Tirupati Forge Ltd151.0×₹951 CrTurning around
Uni Abex Alloy Products Ltd19.8×₹932 CrNo read
Synergy Green Industries Ltd186.0×₹927 CrMixed
Sterling Tools Ltd36.7×₹882 CrMixed
Uni Abex Alloy Products Ltd16.7×₹581 CrTurning around
12 · Frequently asked questions

Frequently asked questions

What is Happy Forgings Ltd's share price today?

Happy Forgings Ltd trades at ₹1,595, +69.7% over the past year. The company is valued at ₹15,247 Cr. The stock sits at 100% of its 52-week range of ₹886–₹1,595, +26.7% versus its 200-day average. On the tape, the price is in a confirmed uptrend, 36 weeks in. — as of 24 July 2026.

What were Happy Forgings Ltd's latest quarterly results?

Happy Forgings Ltd reported revenue of ₹424 Cr and net profit of ₹84.0 Cr for the Mar 26 quarter. Revenue rose 20.5% and profit rose 23.5% year on year. Earnings per share were ₹8.86. The operating margin was 31.0%, 2.0 pp higher than a year earlier. — as of 24 July 2026.

What is Happy Forgings Ltd's revenue?

Happy Forgings Ltd reported revenue of ₹424 Cr in the Mar 26 quarter, +20.5% year on year. For the full FY26 fiscal year, revenue was ₹1,546 Cr (+9.7%). Over the last 8 years revenue compounded at 13.8% a year. — as of 24 July 2026.

What is Happy Forgings Ltd's profit?

Happy Forgings Ltd earned ₹84.0 Cr of net profit in the Mar 26 quarter, +23.5% year on year — the 7th straight quarter of growth. Full-year FY26 profit was ₹302 Cr. The operating margin ran 31.0% in the latest quarter. — as of 24 July 2026.

What is Happy Forgings Ltd's market cap?

Happy Forgings Ltd's market capitalisation is ₹15,247 Cr at a share price of ₹1,595. Market cap is the share price multiplied by shares outstanding, so it is restated whenever the price moves. — as of 24 July 2026.

What is Happy Forgings Ltd's P/E ratio?

Happy Forgings Ltd trades at a P/E of 51.0×, at the 97th percentile of its own 3-year range, against a long-run median of 39.9×. This is a comparison with the stock's own history, not a value call — as of 24 July 2026.

Does Happy Forgings Ltd pay a dividend?

Yes — Happy Forgings Ltd's dividend payout was 13% of profit in FY26, and it recorded a payout in 4 of its last 9 reported fiscal years. This page holds the payout ratio, not a per-share amount. — as of 24 July 2026.

Is Happy Forgings Ltd overvalued?

On its own history, Happy Forgings Ltd looks expensive against its own history: its P/E of 51.0× sits at the 97th percentile of its 3-year range (long-run median 39.9×). That is a percentile read against the stock's own past, not a price opinion or a direction call. One caveat: margins are the best this company has ever printed — cheap on record margins is not the same thing as cheap. — as of 24 July 2026.

Is Happy Forgings Ltd growing?

Yes — Happy Forgings Ltd is growing: latest-quarter revenue +20.5% year on year, profit +23.5%, and the margin +2.0 pp at 31.0%. The 8-year compound rates are 13.8% (revenue) and 22.9% (profit). The earnings engine currently reads: improving — as of 24 July 2026.

How is Happy Forgings Ltd performing?

Happy Forgings Ltd is in a confirmed uptrend, 36 weeks in. Its latest quarter's revenue rose 20.5% and profit rose 23.5% year on year. Against the NIFTY 500 it has been ahead on a trailing-13-week view for 46 weeks. This describes what the data did, not a rating. — as of 24 July 2026.

What stage is Happy Forgings Ltd in?

Consistent — revenue and profit growth have stayed positive through the window, with ROCE at 20.3% and holding. The read comes from the last 12 quarters of growth (revenue growth +20.5% latest, profit growth +23.5% latest) plus the ROCE curve, classified by deterministic rules — a trajectory read, not a buy or sell call — as of 24 July 2026.

Is Happy Forgings Ltd in an uptrend?

Yes — the price is in a confirmed uptrend (week 36 of stage 2), trading +26.7% versus its 200-day average and at 100% of its 52-week range. Price stages cycle base → advance → top → decline, and the stage names where this stock sits in that cycle — as of 24 July 2026.

Is Happy Forgings Ltd beating the market?

On recent form, yes — Happy Forgings Ltd has been ahead of the NIFTY 500 on a trailing-13-week view for 46 straight weeks, the same metric the week-by-week ribbon on this page draws. Separately, on the cumulative view: over the last 2.6 years the stock moved +55% against the NIFTY 500's +20% — ahead of the index over the full window. — as of 24 July 2026.

Will Happy Forgings Ltd's share price go up?

This page publishes no price forecast for Happy Forgings Ltd. What it measures instead: the share price is ₹1,595, the price is in a confirmed uptrend 36 weeks in. Its P/E of 51.0× sits at the 97th percentile of its own 3-year range. — as of 24 July 2026.

Who owns Happy Forgings Ltd?

Promoters hold 78.5% of Happy Forgings Ltd, foreign institutions 1.9%, domestic institutions 15.5% and the public 4.1% (latest quarter). The biggest move on the register over the last two years: Domestic institutions cut 1.2 points over 8 quarters. — as of 24 July 2026.

Does Happy Forgings Ltd have too much debt?

No — Happy Forgings Ltd's debt-to-equity is 0.16, and operating profit covers the interest bill 47×. FY26 borrowings were ₹330 Cr against equity of ₹2,128 Cr. The returns on this page are earned, not borrowed — as of 24 July 2026.

What is Happy Forgings Ltd's capex?

Happy Forgings Ltd spent ₹823 Cr on capital expenditure over the last 3 fiscal years, a figure derived from the change in fixed assets plus depreciation. In FY26 alone that was ₹403 Cr, with ₹237 Cr in capital work-in-progress — capacity paid for but not yet earning. — as of 24 July 2026.

What is Happy Forgings Ltd's cash flow?

Happy Forgings Ltd generated ₹445 Cr of operating cash flow in FY26 and ₹42.0 Cr of free cash flow after ₹403 Cr of capital spending. Reported profit that year was ₹302 Cr, so operating cash ran ahead of profit. Cash-flow resolution for India is annual. — as of 24 July 2026.

Is Happy Forgings Ltd's profit real cash?

Yes — over the last 3 fiscal years, 114% of Happy Forgings Ltd's reported profit arrived as operating cash. In FY26, operating cash was ₹445 Cr against reported profit of ₹302 Cr. The cash then goes mostly into building capacity. Cash-flow resolution is annual — as of 24 July 2026.

How financially safe is Happy Forgings Ltd?

On the balance sheet, the Z-score reads 13.40 — above roughly 3 is safe, below roughly 1.8 is the distress zone. That sits well clear of trouble. — as of 24 July 2026.

Where is Happy Forgings Ltd in its business cycle?

Happy Forgings Ltd's FY26 operating margin was 30.0%, against a 9-year band of 25.0%–30.0%: the top of the band — a record year. Record profitability is late-cycle territory: every ratio flatters at the top, and the story leans on margins holding. The latest quarter ran 31.0%. Profitability versus a company's own long band is the cleanest cycle clock this page holds — as of 24 July 2026.

What could break the Happy Forgings Ltd story?

The sharpest disagreement: the price moved +69.7% in a year while annual EPS moved +12.6% — the difference is re-rating, and re-rating has to be repaid with earnings. Mechanically, two Friday closes in a row below the 200-day average would end the price trend — that is the exit rule this page tracks — as of 24 July 2026.

Is Happy Forgings Ltd a stock worth studying right now?

This is not investment advice. The machine read: Happy Forgings Ltd's price has outrun its earnings. +69.7% in a year against EPS +12.6% — the market is paying now for delivery later. The sharpest open question: whether earnings grow into a price that has already moved. Every number on this page is drawn deterministically from the raw series, with no forecasts and no price opinions — as of 24 July 2026.

Chat with this pageChat with pageChatChatGPTClaudePerplexityGoogle AI