Allcargo Gati Ltd(Merged)

Price story Before the numbers, the tape. A stock price moves through four repeating seasons: a flat base (stage 1), an advance (2), a top (3), a decline (4). Where the price sits in that cycle frames everything below.

Allcargo Gati Ltd(Merged) trades at ₹66.0, in a downtrend and 99 weeks into that stage. That is −2.7% against its own 200-day average. It sits at 31% of a 52-week range of ₹53 to ₹96. On relative strength it has been ahead of the NIFTY 500 on a trailing-13-week view for 1 straight week.

Today the stock is in a downtrend — week 99 of stage 4, confirmed. At ₹66.0 it trades −2.7% versus its 200-day average and sits at 31% of its 52-week range (₹53–₹96).

Against the market, two honest reads. Cumulative: over the last 9.7 years the stock moved −41% while the NIFTY 500 moved +283% — behind the index over the full window. Recent form: on a trailing-13-week view the stock has been ahead for 1 straight week — the ribbon below is that same metric, week by week.

What would end the trend, mechanically: two Friday closes in a row below the 200-day line. That is the exit rule — no debates.

→ The trend is one thing; the bill is another. Are you paying up for it? Next: the P/E sits at the 86th percentile of its own range.

Valuation P/E is the price of ₹1 of annual profit: how many rupees the market pays for each rupee the company earns in a year.

Allcargo Gati Ltd(Merged) trades at 97.5× P/E, at the pricey end of its own range (86th percentile). Its long-run median P/E is 35.5×, measured across 9.7 years of weekly readings. This places the multiple against the stock’s own record, and says nothing about what the business is worth.

Today's P/E of 97.5× is at the pricey end of its own range (86th percentile), against a long-run median of 35.5× measured over 9.7 years of weekly readings. This is a comparison against the stock's own history — not a claim about what it is worth.

Why the multiple sits where it does: over the past year annual EPS moved −18.8% against a −31.7% price move — earnings outran the price, pushing the multiple DOWN its own range.

The price move, decomposed: over 3y, of the −25.8%/yr price move, ~+22.5%/yr came from earnings growth and ~−48.3 pp from the multiple (compressing). The split is the honest approximate (price return minus earnings growth); it makes the rally itself visible instead of hiding it behind the percentile.

Put together: the multiple is full against its own past, so the story rests on the earnings line underneath it, not the multiple.

→ Cheap or dear rides on the earnings. Are they actually growing? Next: the fundamental stage — where the business sits in its arc, and how growth has compounded.

Stage: No read Every business sits somewhere on a fundamental arc, and this page names the spot before anything else. The last twelve quarters of revenue, profit and EPS growth — plus the return the business earns on its capital — are read as curves: Deteriorating (the curves are falling), Turning around (a trough has just formed and the last few quarters lift off it), Improving (the climb off the trough is sustained), Consistent (steadily positive with healthy returns), Topping out (still high but decelerating from the peak). When the curves genuinely disagree the read is Mixed; too little history is No read. CAGR (compound annual growth rate) is the smooth yearly pace that turns the starting value into the latest one — the fairest way to compare growth across different time spans. Read the columns together: if the 1-year number towers over the 10-year, recent growth is running hotter than the long-run trend. A dash means that window is not held, or the base year was a loss (where a growth rate is not meaningful).

Allcargo Gati Ltd(Merged) reads as no read on its fundamental arc. Under eight usable quarters on the growth trio — not enough history for an honest trajectory read. The read is built from 9 quarters across 2 curves, on partial evidence.

Why it matters: with too little history, an honest page says so instead of guessing a trajectory.

One or more growth curves carry a base-effect spike — a large year-on-year move off a near-zero or loss-making comparable quarter. Those spikes are capped before the classifier reads the trajectory, and shown pinned on the chart, so a single distorted quarter does not drive the stage call.

Return readings here are annual, not quarterly — read as level and direction only; they can confirm the growth curves but never drive the stage on their own.

Fewer than eight usable quarters on the growth curves — this page will not guess a trajectory from a stub of history.

→ The stage names the trajectory. Next: the revenue line that produces it, quarter by quarter.

4-Factor Sector Score

40.2/100 — rank 18 of 18 in Logistics · 41% evidence confidence · provisional, ranked below fully-evidenced peers

Allcargo Gati Ltd(Merged) scores 40.2 out of 100 against the 18 companies it is compared with in Logistics, ranking 18. Fill the missing evidence before acting; the ranking is deliberately pulled toward neutral.

The four contributions add to the total exactly: 16.2 + 7.8 + 8.9 + 7.3 = 40.2. This is the SAME number shown on the sector comparison — it is computed once, for the whole peer set, and read here.

What would change it: The read weakens if profit growth turns negative or margin improvement reverses while sector-relative strength deteriorates.

Revenue Revenue is the top line: everything the company billed its customers in the period.

Allcargo Gati Ltd(Merged) reported ₹357 Cr of revenue in the Jun 25 quarter, −0.2% year on year. Over 10 years it has compounded at −0.9% a year. The last full year, FY25, came in at ₹1,510 Cr. The last four reported quarters add to ₹1,561 Cr.

Allcargo Gati Ltd(Merged) reported ₹357 Cr of revenue in the Jun 25 quarter, −0.2% year on year. Over 10 years it has compounded at −0.9% a year. The last full year, FY25, came in at ₹1,510 Cr. The last four reported quarters add to ₹1,561 Cr.

FY25 revenue came in at ₹1,510 Cr (+2.1% on the year), capping 10 years at −0.9% compound. The latest quarter (Jun 25) printed ₹357 Cr, −0.2% year on year.

Pace check: the last four quarters averaged −0.7% growth against the decade's −0.9% — the current year is running in line with its own long-run rate.

Acceleration check: trailing-twelve-month revenue grew −1.1% over the last 4 quarters against −4.7%/yr over the last 8 — accelerating.

→ Revenue slipped — did margins hold as it scaled? Next: 3.6% this quarter (−1.5 pp YoY).

Operating margin Operating margin is what is left of every ₹100 of sales after running the business, before interest and tax. It is the cleanest read on pricing power and cost control.

Allcargo Gati Ltd(Merged)'s operating margin is 3.6% in the Jun 25 quarter, −1.5 percentage points against the same quarter a year ago. Across 12 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged 2.0% to 8.0%. The current quarter sits inside that band.

Allcargo Gati Ltd(Merged)'s operating margin is 3.6% in the Jun 25 quarter, −1.5 percentage points against the same quarter a year ago. Across 12 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged 2.0% to 8.0%. The current quarter sits inside that band.

The latest quarter's operating margin is 3.6%, −1.5 pp against the same quarter a year ago. Across 12 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged 2.0%–8.0%.

🚨 Why the margin moved: operating margin went −1.5 pp year on year while gross margin went +0.0 pp — the loss came mostly below the gross line: operating leverage, with costs spread over a bigger revenue base.

→ Margins slipped — did that reach the bottom line? Next: profit null in the latest quarter.

Net profit Net profit is what survives every cost, interest and tax — the number EPS, dividends and book value all grow from.

Allcargo Gati Ltd(Merged) earned ₹1.2 Cr of net profit in the Jun 25 quarter. Full-year FY25 profit was ₹12.0 Cr. The 10-year compound rate is −14.4%. That is 0.3% of the quarter's revenue. The same quarter a year earlier lost ₹2.2 Cr. 7 of the last 12 reported quarters were loss-making.

Allcargo Gati Ltd(Merged) earned ₹1.2 Cr of net profit in the Jun 25 quarter. Full-year FY25 profit was ₹12.0 Cr. The 10-year compound rate is −14.4%. That is 0.3% of the quarter's revenue. The same quarter a year earlier lost ₹2.2 Cr. 7 of the last 12 reported quarters were loss-making.

Jun 25 profit was ₹1.2 Cr, null year on year. On the full year, FY25 printed ₹12.0 Cr (+100.0%), and the 10-year compound rate is −14.4%.

→ Profit rose — but did the cash follow? Next: 612% of the last 3 years' profit arrived as cash.

Cash flow — the router The P&L says what was earned; the cash-flow statement says what actually arrived. Operating cash flow (CFO) against profit is the cleanest lie detector in the accounts.

Over the last 3 fiscal years 612% of Allcargo Gati Ltd(Merged)'s reported profit arrived as operating cash — the cash follows the profit. In FY25 that was ₹79.0 Cr of operating cash against ₹12.0 Cr of profit. After ₹32.0 Cr of capital spending, ₹47.0 Cr was left as free cash.

FY25: operating cash of ₹79.0 Cr against reported profit of ₹12.0 Cr, leaving free cash of ₹47.0 Cr after ₹32.0 Cr of capital spending. Across the last 3 fiscal years the conversion rate is 612% of profit.

Cash-flow readings here are annual — that is the resolution our series carries, so this section moves once a year.

Why conversion sits at 612%: the cash cycle stretched 121 days between FY20 and FY25 — more of each rupee of profit waits inside the cycle before arriving.

Router verdict: no single sink dominates — the next section checks both the working-capital cycle and the capital spending.

→ So follow the cash to where it goes. Next: a 61-day cycle and ₹204 Cr of building.

Where the cash goes Working capital is the cash tied up between paying suppliers and getting paid: debtor days (customers owe), inventory days (stock waits), and the cash conversion cycle (the whole loop, in days of sales).

Allcargo Gati Ltd(Merged)'s cash conversion cycle runs 61 days in FY25, up from −60 days in FY20. Capital spending ran ₹204 Cr over the last 3 years. At FY25 sales of ₹1,510 Cr each day of that cycle holds about ₹4.1 Cr, so roughly ₹252 Cr sits inside the business at any moment.

FY25: debtors at 61 days (an asset-light business — no inventory to speak of) — for a full cycle of 61 days, looser than FY20's −60.

In money terms: at FY25 sales of ₹1,510 Cr, each day of the cycle holds about ₹4.1 Cr — so the 61-day loop keeps roughly ₹252 Cr sitting inside the business at any moment.

On the investment side: capital spending of ₹204 Cr over the last 3 fiscal years against ₹201 Cr of depreciation — building somewhat ahead of wear-and-tear. Capital work-in-progress stands at ₹3.0 Cr (FY25) — capacity paid for but not yet earning.

The synthesis: neither the cycle nor the build-out is hoarding the cash — the machine is reasonably clean.

→ Does all this activity actually earn its cost of capital? Next: ROCE is 2%.

Return on capital Return on capital employed (ROCE) is the profit the whole business earns on all the money in it — equity and debt together. It is the single best test of whether growth creates value or just size.

Allcargo Gati Ltd(Merged) earns a ROCE of 2% in FY25. That is up from a trough of −1% in FY24. A return-on-invested-capital spread against the cost of capital is not computable from what is held here. The wiring behind it is 0.8% net margin on 1.10× asset turns.

FY25 ROCE is 2%, recovered from a FY24 trough of −1% — the full ladder below shows the fall and the climb, undoctored.

Why the return is what it is — the wiring (FY25): 0.8% net margin × 1.10× asset turns × 1.69× balance-sheet leverage ≈ 1.5% on equity. Margin does its share; leverage is a meaningful part of the equation.

→ Returns like these — is the balance sheet borrowing to make them? Next: debt-to-equity is 0.29.

Debt Debt-to-equity says how much of the business is funded by borrowings; interest cover says how many times operating profit pays the interest bill. Low and high, respectively, is the safe corner.

Allcargo Gati Ltd(Merged) carries ₹236 Cr of borrowings against ₹813 Cr of equity in FY25, a debt-to-equity of 0.29. Operating profit covers the interest bill 3×. Over 5 years borrowings went from ₹476 Cr to ₹236 Cr. Capital spending ran ₹204 Cr across the last 3 of those years.

FY25: borrowings of ₹236 Cr against equity of ₹813 Cr — a debt-to-equity of 0.29. Operating profit covers the interest bill 3×. Over 5 years borrowings went from ₹476 Cr to ₹236 Cr while capital spending ran ₹204 Cr in just the last 3 — the build-out is being paid for out of cash, not debt.

→ Who owns this, and are they adding or leaving? Next: Promoters cut 6.9 points over 8 quarters.

Ownership Who owns the stock, quarter by quarter: promoters (the controlling owners), foreign and domestic institutions, and the public. Steady accumulation by people close to the numbers is a signal; a quiet register is also an answer.

Promoters cut 6.9 points of Allcargo Gati Ltd(Merged) over 8 quarters, the biggest move on the register. That takes promoters to 46.1% of the company. Domestic institutions moved +1.4 points over the same window, to 3.0%. The register is read on the four disclosed classes only; nothing is inferred between filings.

The register over the last two years — Promoters: −6.9 points over 8 quarters to 46.1%; Domestic institutions: +1.4 points over 8 quarters to 3.0%; Foreign institutions: +1.3 points over 8 quarters to 2.0%.

🚨 Why the register moved: promoters drove it (−6.9 points), absorbed on the other side by domestic institutions (+1.4 points) — distribution into the market’s bid.

→ One last check: does the safety math agree? Next: the balance-sheet safety line.

Safety line The Z-score estimates how far a company sits from balance-sheet distress — above roughly 3 is safe, below roughly 1.8 is the danger zone. It was built for manufacturers, so it is not applied to banks and lenders.

Allcargo Gati Ltd(Merged): the Z-score is not available for this stock, so we say so rather than invent one. It is a distance-to-distress estimate from the balance sheet, not a forecast of failure. The debt, cash-flow and return sections above carry the balance-sheet evidence this page does hold, and each of them states its own reporting date.

The safety line in one sentence: the Z-score is not available for this stock, so we say so rather than invent one.

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