TD Power Systems Ltd

Price story Before the numbers, the tape. A stock price moves through four repeating seasons: a flat base (stage 1), an advance (2), a top (3), a decline (4). Where the price sits in that cycle frames everything below.

TD Power Systems Ltd trades at ₹1,485, in a confirmed uptrend and 68 weeks into that stage. That is +51.0% against its own 200-day average. It sits at 100% of a 52-week range of ₹600 to ₹1,485. On relative strength it has been ahead of the NIFTY 500 on a trailing-13-week view for 1 straight week.

Today the stock is in a confirmed uptrend — week 68 of stage 2, confirmed. At ₹1,485 it trades +51.0% versus its 200-day average and sits at 100% of its 52-week range (₹600–₹1,485).

Against the market, two honest reads. Cumulative: over the last 10.5 years the stock moved +3,556% while the NIFTY 500 moved +284% — ahead of the index over the full window. Recent form: on a trailing-13-week view the stock has been ahead for 1 straight week — the ribbon below is that same metric, week by week.

What would end the trend, mechanically: two Friday closes in a row below the 200-day line. That is the exit rule — no debates.

Story check

TD Power Systems Ltd's story is not scored yet against the markers our research file set on 14 June 2026. Where it sits in its own cycle: Not stated in the research file. Still open: PE 78x (94th %ile) with normalized PE 115x (97th %ile) — earnings must compound at 35%+ CAGR for 6-7 years to justify current price.

Our read, 14 June 2026. AI data center-driven OEM demand surge fully priced at 78x PE (94th %ile); thesis is earnings growing INTO the multiple, not further re-rating.

What is proven. AI data center-driven OEM demand surge fully priced at 78x PE (94th %ile); thesis is earnings growing INTO the multiple, not further re-rating.

What is not proven yet. PE 78x (94th %ile) with normalized PE 115x (97th %ile) — earnings must compound at 35%+ CAGR for 6-7 years to justify current price.

The test written in advance. Valuation: Priced for Perfection at 78x PE — Valuation: Priced for Perfection at 78x PE by the next result.

The test written in advance. Management Consistency: 4 Documented Pivots — Management Consistency: 4 Documented Pivots by the next result.

The test written in advance. WC Expansion: Receivables Growing Faster than Revenue — WC Expansion: Receivables Growing Faster than Revenue Debtor days exceed 160 days in any FY27 quarter; OCF/PAT falls below 0.3 for FY27 full year by the next result.

🚨 What the surface reading misses. The surface reading is: Trailing PE 78x at 94th %ile → expensive, avoid The research reads it further: OPM is at 73rd percentile of own history — NOT depressed margins inflating the PE. Normalized PE (adjusting to mid-cycle OPM 12.1%) produces PE 115x at 97th %ile. This is a genuine re-rating: the market has re-priced the business on structurally higher earnings visibility, not a trough-margin optical distortion. The §0 'loser pattern' cited: PE re-rated ahead of EPS; the risk is EPS needs to grow INTO the multiple over FY27-FY29 to justify price.

🚨 What the surface reading misses. The surface reading is: OPM 16.6% — lower than recent peak 18.8%, reads as margin compression The research reads it further: OPM 16.6% is at 73rd percentile of own 10-year history — above the mid-cycle normalized rate of 12.1%. The Mar 2025 OPM of 18.8% was the absolute peak in 10 years. 'Margin compression' is actually the business returning from its peak toward the upper end of its normal range. cycle_normalized.margin_direction = FALLING confirms OPM is in a downtrend from the peak.

Lever 1 · Operating leverage — BUILDING. Three-plant capacity now at 100%+ utilization. Rs 50 Cr incremental capex each FY27/FY28 targets de-bottlenecking and automation — expected to lift capacity to Rs 3,000-3,200 Cr revenue potential by FY28. Fixed cost absorption improves as revenue moves from Rs 1,856 Cr (FY26) toward Rs 2,400+ Cr (FY27 guidance). What proves it keeps working: Operating Leverage from Utilization Scale. It stops working if OPM fails to sustain ≥17% through FY27 despite revenue growth; execution bottlenecks from 100% utilization result in order delays and LD penalties.

Sources: our stock research file (14 June 2026) · quarterly results through Jun 26 · the company’s own earnings calls. The story check is re-scored every results season; the record below never changes.

Revenue Revenue is the top line: everything the company billed its customers in the period.

TD Power Systems Ltd reported ₹640 Cr of revenue in the Jun 26 quarter, +72.0% year on year. That is the 12th straight quarter of year-on-year growth. Over 10 years it has compounded at 13.9% a year. The last full year, FY26, came in at ₹1,856 Cr. The last four reported quarters add to ₹2,124 Cr.

Why this happened. OEM customers for gas turbine generators are planning to double capacity by 2030 on average; demand from US and Europe described as 'extremely high' with backlogs through 2030. US data centers shifting from grid to captive power due to rising electricity costs — management estimates 100 GW demand in US alone over 5-7 years. TD Power has locked capacity agreements with OEMs through 2030. FY26 order inflow 79% export-weighted (Rs 1,733 Cr exports vs Rs 2,238 Cr total).

FY26 revenue came in at ₹1,856 Cr (+45.1% on the year), capping 10 years at 13.9% compound. The latest quarter (Jun 26) printed ₹640 Cr, +72.0% year on year — the 12th consecutive quarter of year-over-year growth.

Pace check: the last four quarters averaged +53.9% growth against the decade's 13.9% — the current year is running faster than its own long-run rate.

Acceleration check: trailing-twelve-month revenue grew +54.4% over the last 4 quarters against +41.9%/yr over the last 8 — accelerating; TTM profit +45.0% vs +46.9%/yr — stabilising.

FY26-Q4. revenue ₹589 Cr and profit ₹72 Cr as reported.

FY27-Q1. revenue ₹640 Cr and profit ₹86 Cr as reported.

Why-sources: our stock research file (14 June 2026) and the company’s own results for those quarters.

Operating margin Operating margin is what is left of every ₹100 of sales after running the business, before interest and tax. It is the cleanest read on pricing power and cost control.

TD Power Systems Ltd's operating margin is 19.0% in the Jun 26 quarter, +0.0 percentage points against the same quarter a year ago. That is the widest this company has ever printed on a full-year basis. Across 13 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged 1.8% to 18.0%. The current quarter is running above every full year in that window.

The latest quarter's operating margin is 19.0%, +0.0 pp against the same quarter a year ago. Across 13 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged 1.8%–18.0%, and FY26's 18.0% is the top of that band — a record year.

Why the margin moved: operating margin went +0.5 pp year on year while gross margin went −0.3 pp — the gain came mostly from the gross line: input costs and pricing.

Worth repeating from the valuation section: cheap against its own history on record margins is not the same thing as cheap — a record margin flatters every ratio built on top of it.

FY26-Q4. revenue ₹589 Cr and profit ₹72 Cr as reported.

FY27-Q1. revenue ₹640 Cr and profit ₹86 Cr as reported.

Why-sources: our stock research file (14 June 2026) and the company’s own results for those quarters.

Net profit Net profit is what survives every cost, interest and tax — the number EPS, dividends and book value all grow from.

TD Power Systems Ltd earned ₹86.0 Cr of net profit in the Jun 26 quarter, +72.0% year on year. It is the 9th consecutive quarter of growth. Full-year FY26 profit was ₹239 Cr. That is 13.4% of the quarter's revenue. The same quarter a year earlier earned ₹50.0 Cr.

Jun 26 profit was ₹86.0 Cr, +72.0% year on year — the 9th consecutive quarter of growth. On the full year, FY26 printed ₹239 Cr (+36.6%).

Why profit moved: revenue contributed +72.0% and the margin +0.0 pp — the quarter was revenue-led, with the margin roughly flat.

Pace comparison, last four quarters: profit +44.6% vs revenue +53.9%. Profit is growing slower than sales — costs are eating the growth before it reaches the bottom line.

FY26-Q4. revenue ₹589 Cr and profit ₹72 Cr as reported.

FY27-Q1. revenue ₹640 Cr and profit ₹86 Cr as reported.

Why-sources: our stock research file (14 June 2026) and the company’s own results for those quarters.

Cash flow — the router The P&L says what was earned; the cash-flow statement says what actually arrived. Operating cash flow (CFO) against profit is the cleanest lie detector in the accounts.

Over the last 3 fiscal years 48% of TD Power Systems Ltd's reported profit arrived as operating cash — a gap worth watching. In FY26 that was ₹129 Cr of operating cash against ₹239 Cr of profit. After ₹110 Cr of capital spending, ₹19.0 Cr was left as free cash.

FY26: operating cash of ₹129 Cr against reported profit of ₹239 Cr, leaving free cash of ₹19.0 Cr after ₹110 Cr of capital spending. Across the last 3 fiscal years the conversion rate is 48% of profit.

Cash-flow readings here are annual — that is the resolution our series carries, so this section moves once a year.

🚨 Why conversion sits at 48%: the cash cycle held roughly steady between FY21 and FY26 — so conversion tracks profitability rather than the cycle. Less than 70% of profit arriving as cash is the thing to watch on this page.

Router verdict: the bigger cash user is investment — capital spending ran 3.3× depreciation over three years, so the next section's job is to check what that build-out is buying.

Where the cash goes Working capital is the cash tied up between paying suppliers and getting paid: debtor days (customers owe), inventory days (stock waits), and the cash conversion cycle (the whole loop, in days of sales).

TD Power Systems Ltd's cash conversion cycle runs 173 days in FY26, down from 174 days in FY21. Capital spending ran ₹212 Cr over the last 3 years. At FY26 sales of ₹1,856 Cr each day of that cycle holds about ₹5.1 Cr, so roughly ₹880 Cr sits inside the business at any moment.

Why this happened. Company approved strategic entry into 200 MW range generators; technology from 100%-owned UK subsidiary DFPS. Machinery procurement starts now; full capacity by end-CY2027; major revenue ramp in CY2028 (FY29). Same OEM customer base upgrading to larger sizes. Competitive set includes Siemens, Baker Hughes (post-Brush), Mitsubishi, Fuji — 15-16 month equipment procurement lead times create temporary capacity gap.

FY26: debtors at 146 days, inventory at 148 days — roughly 4.9 months of stock waiting to sell; that is where the cash sits while it waits — for a full cycle of 173 days, tighter than FY21's 174.

The full loop: cash goes out to suppliers and production on day 0; stock waits 148 days to sell; customers pay about 146 days after that; and suppliers themselves are paid at 121 days — netting out to the 173-day cycle.

In money terms: at FY26 sales of ₹1,856 Cr, each day of the cycle holds about ₹5.1 Cr — so the 173-day loop keeps roughly ₹880 Cr sitting inside the business at any moment.

On the investment side: capital spending of ₹212 Cr over the last 3 fiscal years against ₹64.0 Cr of depreciation — the company is building well ahead of wear-and-tear. Capital work-in-progress stands at ₹17.0 Cr (FY26) — capacity paid for but not yet earning.

The synthesis: the cash is going into capacity, not disappearing into the cycle — the question becomes whether the new capacity earns.

Return on capital Return on capital employed (ROCE) is the profit the whole business earns on all the money in it — equity and debt together. It is the single best test of whether growth creates value or just size.

TD Power Systems Ltd earns a ROCE of 34% in FY26. That is up from a trough of 0% in FY16. Return on invested capital clears the cost of that capital by +15.6 percentage points, so growth here adds value rather than only size. The wiring behind it is 12.9% net margin on 0.99× asset turns.

FY26 ROCE is 34%, recovered from a FY16 trough of 0% — the full ladder below shows the fall and the climb, undoctored.

Why the return is what it is — the wiring (FY26): 12.9% net margin × 0.99× asset turns × 1.75× balance-sheet leverage ≈ 22.3% on equity. Margin does its share; leverage is a meaningful part of the equation.

The capstone test — ROIC − WACC: 27.6% − 12.0% = a +15.6 pp spread. The 12.0% is a standing assumption for the cost of capital in India, not a per-stock estimate — read the sign and the size of the spread, not the decimals. A spread this wide means every rupee reinvested creates more than a rupee of value — the engine compounds.

Debt Debt-to-equity says how much of the business is funded by borrowings. Low is the safe corner; the trend matters as much as the level.

TD Power Systems Ltd carries total debt of ₹18.0 Cr against shareholder equity of ₹1,072 Cr as of Mar 26, a debt-to-equity of 0.02 — effectively unlevered. On the annual view that ratio went from 0.13 in FY22 to 0.02 in FY26. The returns elsewhere on this page are therefore earned rather than borrowed.

Why this happened. Three-plant capacity now at 100%+ utilization. Rs 50 Cr incremental capex each FY27/FY28 targets de-bottlenecking and automation — expected to lift capacity to Rs 3,000-3,200 Cr revenue potential by FY28. Fixed cost absorption improves as revenue moves from Rs 1,856 Cr (FY26) toward Rs 2,400+ Cr (FY27 guidance).

Mar 26: total debt of ₹18.0 Cr against shareholder equity of ₹1,072 Cr — a debt-to-equity of 0.02. On the annual view, debt-to-equity went from 0.13 (FY22) to 0.02 (FY26). The returns on this page are earned, not borrowed.

Ownership Who owns the stock, quarter by quarter: promoters (the controlling owners), foreign and domestic institutions, and the public. Steady accumulation by people close to the numbers is a signal; a quiet register is also an answer.

Foreign institutions added 11.3 points of TD Power Systems Ltd over 8 quarters, the biggest move on the register. That takes foreign institutions to 26.2% of the company. Domestic institutions moved −7.7 points over the same window, to 23.9%. The register is read on the four disclosed classes only; nothing is inferred between filings.

The register over the last two years — Foreign institutions: +11.3 points over 8 quarters to 26.2%; Domestic institutions: −7.7 points over 8 quarters to 23.9%; Promoters: −7.4 points over 8 quarters to 26.9%.

Why the register moved: rotation — foreign institutions +11.3 points against domestic institutions −7.7 points over 8 quarters, with promoters −7.4 points — one class of institutions handing the register to the other, not a verdict change by the people closest to the numbers.

Safety line The Z-score estimates how far a company sits from balance-sheet distress — above roughly 3 is safe, below roughly 1.8 is the danger zone. It was built for manufacturers, so it is not applied to banks and lenders.

TD Power Systems Ltd: the Z-score is not available for this stock, so we say so rather than invent one. It is a distance-to-distress estimate from the balance sheet, not a forecast of failure. The debt, cash-flow and return sections above carry the balance-sheet evidence this page does hold, and each of them states its own reporting date.

The safety line in one sentence: the Z-score is not available for this stock, so we say so rather than invent one.

Valuation P/E is the price of ₹1 of annual profit: how many rupees the market pays for each rupee the company earns in a year.

TD Power Systems Ltd trades at 84.3× P/E, at the pricey end of its own range (95th percentile). Its long-run median P/E is 35.8×, measured across 7.2 years of weekly readings. This places the multiple against the stock’s own record, and says nothing about what the business is worth.

Today's P/E of 84.3× is at the pricey end of its own range (95th percentile), against a long-run median of 35.8× measured over 7.2 years of weekly readings. This is a comparison against the stock's own history — not a claim about what it is worth.

🚨 Why the multiple sits where it does: over the past year annual EPS moved +36.7% against a +191.9% price move — the price outran earnings, pushing the multiple UP its own range.

The price move, decomposed: over 5y, of the +101.3%/yr price move, ~+36.3%/yr came from earnings growth and ~+65.0 pp from the multiple (expanding). The split is the honest approximate (price return minus earnings growth); it makes the rally itself visible instead of hiding it behind the percentile.

Put together: the multiple is full against its own past, so the story rests on the earnings line underneath it, not the multiple.

What the price assumes This reading works the multiple backwards. It asks one question: what yearly rate of profit growth is a buyer at the market price already paying for? The number is the growth rate that makes eleven years of profit — six years growing, then five fading — add up to that day's market price, once each year is discounted at 11% a year.

At its price on 15 June 2026, TD Power Systems Ltd was priced for profit growth of about 33.6% a year. The market pays that at 84.3× P/E, the 95th percentile of its own 7-year range.

What the two numbers say together. The multiple is full against its own past, and the growth the price is paying for is the whole of what a buyer is backing. Both readings sit on the same earnings, so they are one reading rather than two.

How to hold this number: it is a reading of one day's price, taken on 15 June 2026, not a running figure. A higher price is paying for more growth and a lower price for less, so it moves whenever the price does, and this page does not restate it between measurements. Every other number on this page is read off the live quote.

Stage: Consistent Every business sits somewhere on a fundamental arc, and this page names the spot before anything else. The last twelve quarters of revenue, profit and EPS growth — plus the return the business earns on its capital — are read as curves: Deteriorating (the curves are falling), Turning around (a trough has just formed and the last few quarters lift off it), Improving (the climb off the trough is sustained), Consistent (steadily positive with healthy returns), Topping out (still high but decelerating from the peak). When the curves genuinely disagree the read is Mixed; too little history is No read. CAGR (compound annual growth rate) is the smooth yearly pace that turns the starting value into the latest one — the fairest way to compare growth across different time spans. Read the columns together: if the 1-year number towers over the 10-year, recent growth is running hotter than the long-run trend. A dash means that window is not held, or the base year was a loss (where a growth rate is not meaningful).

TD Power Systems Ltd reads as consistent on its fundamental arc. Consistent — revenue, profit and EPS growth have stayed positive through the window, with ROCE at 33.5% and holding. The read is built from 12 quarters across 4 curves, on full evidence.

Why it matters: steady curves with healthy returns are the compounding setup — the risk is the price, not the business.

4-Factor Sector Score

70.0/100 — rank 1 of 2 in Capital Goods - Gensets/Turbines · 97% evidence confidence

TD Power Systems Ltd scores 70.0 out of 100 against the 2 companies it is compared with in Capital Goods - Gensets/Turbines, ranking 1. Confirmed research leader: earnings, capital efficiency and relative strength agree. Move to management, catalyst and risk diligence.

The four contributions add to the total exactly: 30.8 + 19.7 + 4.9 + 14.6 = 70. This is the SAME number shown on the sector comparison — it is computed once, for the whole peer set, and read here.

What would change it: The read weakens if profit growth turns negative or margin improvement reverses while sector-relative strength deteriorates.

Said versus delivered

What TD Power Systems Ltd's management promised, set against what actually arrived — 4 tracked promises on the record. Read straight from the company’s own earnings calls. A promise that slipped stays on this page after it is met.

FY27 Revenue Guidance Raised Without Quantitative Bridge · 12 August 2026. The latest call raised FY27 revenue guidance to 2,600 crores from the 2,400-plus crore guidance in May 2026, an increase of more than 5% from the stated floor. The May call had foreshadowed a possible increase, but the latest call did not provide a quantitative bridge explaining the size of the revision.

🚨 FY27 Margin Outlook Below Prior In-Line Expectation · 12 August 2026. In May 2026, management confirmed that FY27 margins would be in line with FY26 margins excluding the Turkey one-off. The latest call instead embedded a 16.5% margin in FY27 guidance, below the reported FY26 EBITDA margin of 18.14%, without explaining the change in margin assumptions.

Railway Strategy Reversed · 12 August 2026. The May 2026 call stated that TDPS expected to supply railway products to the U.S., Europe, Russia, and India in the following year. The latest call says TDPS is taking no fresh railway orders and will review the segment after the Indian Railway contract, indicating a material shift toward reallocating capacity to generators and motors.

Hydro Refurbishment Geographic Scope Narrowed · 12 August 2026. In May 2026, management described TDPS as active in hydro refurbishment in both India and abroad and expected high-value orders. The latest call said the company is not currently looking at taking the refurbishment business global, a material narrowing of the previously stated geographic strategy without explanation.

Every quote above is taken word for word from the company’s own earnings calls.

Frequently asked questions