Swan Defence and Heavy Industries Ltd (SWANDEF) — share price & stock analysis
Profits are still 101% below their best year.
Swan Defence and Heavy Industries Ltd (SWANDEF) trades at ₹2,262 as of 1 July 2026, up 754% over the past year — beating NIFTY 500 for 77 weeks. The machine reads this as shrinking: profits are still 101% below their best year. the price is in Stage 2 — advancing, 75 weeks in; the business cycle reads DEEP CYCLICAL / EXPANSION. Fundamentals-momentum score: 50/100 (mixed).
Data as of 1 July 2026 · every number traces to its Screener source column · not investment advice.
- Market cap
- ₹11,882 Cr
- ROE
- −124.0%
- Book value / share
- ₹13.2
- Revenue (FY26)
- ₹282 Cr
- Profit after tax (FY26)
- ₹-226 Cr
- Weinstein stage
- Stage 2 (75 weeks)
- Data as of
- 1 July 2026
Profits swing violently in this business — real losses in FY15 and FY16 and FY17 and FY18 and FY19 and FY20 and FY21 and FY22 and FY24 and FY25 and FY26. That is what “deep cyclical” means: the same company looks brilliant at the top of its cycle and broken at the bottom.net_profit
Where the clock stands now: earnings sit at 37% of their historical range, margins are near the top of their band, and valuation history is thin. That reads as EXPANSION — the comfortable middle — but the records are already on the table; from here the bet is that they keep coming.net_profit
2 of the 5 things we track are currently moving the right way — some things working, some not.
Where the levels actually stand: ROCE −8% — weak; real debt (39.83× equity); margins near the top of their band. Momentum says which way things are moving; these say where they are.
Read this number for what it is: it measures the DIRECTION of change, not the quality of the business. A mediocre business getting better scores high here; a great one having a soft quarter scores low. Profit, sales and margins count double.
An uptrend that has held for 75 weeks
STAGE 2 · ADVANCING · 75 WEEKSEvery stock cycles through the same four seasons — a flat base (stage 1), an advance (2), a top (3), a decline (4). Right now this one is in Stage 2: advancing, 75 weeks in, confirmed.stage
The price sits above its rising 200-day average (₹1,277 today) — trends like this persist more often than they reverse, which is why the system rides them instead of guessing the top.dma_200
Beating NIFTY 500 for 77 weeks — relative strength is the market’s live opinion, and right now it is on this stock’s side.rs_mansfield
What would end it: two Friday closes in a row below the 200-day line. That is the house exit rule — mechanical, no debates.dma_200
Data: Weekly price, moving averages and stage (sampled — full series in the embedded dataset)
| Period | Price (₹) | 200-DMA (₹) | 50-DMA (₹) | Stage |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 16 | 61.5 | 65.0 | 69.1 | 4 |
| Apr 16 | 65.1 | 65.7 | 67.5 | 2 |
| Jul 16 | 65.8 | 64.7 | 63.6 | 4 |
| Sep 16 | 64.0 | 64.8 | 64.8 | 1 |
| Nov 16 | 55.8 | 63.2 | 60.8 | 4 |
| Jan 17 | 55.9 | 59.9 | 55.3 | 4 |
| Mar 17 | 58.9 | 59.6 | 58.6 | 4 |
| May 17 | 65.8 | 61.4 | 64.1 | 2 |
| Jul 17 | 60.6 | 60.6 | 60.1 | 2 |
| Sep 17 | 57.9 | 59.2 | 57.1 | 4 |
| Nov 17 | 41.7 | 56.5 | 51.7 | 4 |
| Jan 18 | 50.0 | 53.0 | 49.4 | 4 |
| Mar 18 | 28.9 | 48.1 | 39.5 | 4 |
| May 18 | 14.1 | 39.0 | 23.3 | 4 |
| Jul 18 | 12.5 | 29.6 | 14.5 | 4 |
| Sep 18 | 12.1 | 24.9 | 15.0 | 4 |
| Nov 18 | 12.9 | 20.8 | 13.3 | 4 |
| Feb 19 | 11.8 | 18.1 | 13.1 | 4 |
| Apr 19 | 10.2 | 15.3 | 10.7 | 4 |
| Jun 19 | 7.2 | 12.9 | 8.6 | 4 |
| Aug 19 | 1.7 | 9.6 | 4.1 | 4 |
| Oct 19 | 1.9 | 6.9 | 1.8 | 4 |
| Dec 19 | 6.5 | 6.5 | 5.6 | 4 |
| Feb 20 | 1.5 | 5.3 | 3.2 | 4 |
| Apr 20 | 1.4 | 4.0 | 1.9 | 4 |
| Jun 20 | 2.3 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 4 |
| Aug 20 | 3.2 | 3.0 | 2.7 | 4 |
| Oct 20 | 1.9 | 3.0 | 2.7 | 4 |
| Dec 20 | 3.3 | 3.0 | 3.1 | 4 |
| Feb 21 | 2.7 | 3.0 | 2.9 | 4 |
| Apr 21 | 2.8 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 1 |
| Jul 21 | 4.9 | 3.5 | 4.4 | 2 |
| Sep 21 | 2.8 | 3.4 | 3.3 | 2 |
| Nov 21 | 3.1 | 3.3 | 3.1 | 4 |
| Jan 22 | 3.8 | 3.4 | 3.8 | 4 |
| Mar 22 | 3.6 | 3.5 | 3.6 | 2 |
| May 22 | 2.9 | 3.5 | 3.4 | 3 |
| Jul 22 | 2.9 | 3.3 | 3.1 | 4 |
| Sep 22 | 3.9 | 3.2 | 3.1 | 4 |
| Nov 22 | 2.7 | 3.2 | 3.0 | 4 |
| Jan 23 | 3.5 | 3.0 | 2.9 | 4 |
| Mar 23 | 1.9 | 2.8 | 2.4 | 4 |
| May 23 | 2.1 | 2.6 | 2.3 | 4 |
| Jan 25 | 50.6 | 5.3 | 12.6 | 4 |
| Apr 25 | 95.3 | 13.6 | 37.6 | 2 |
| Jun 25 | 188 | 30.2 | 83.4 | 2 |
| Aug 25 | 372 | 62.7 | 170 | 2 |
| Oct 25 | 702 | 120 | 323 | 2 |
| Dec 25 | 1,323 | 229 | 610 | 2 |
| Feb 26 | 1,815 | 425 | 1,098 | 2 |
| May 26 | 1,863 | 957 | 1,741 | 2 |
| Jun 26 | 2,019 | 1,212 | 1,904 | 2 |
| Jul 26 | 2,262 | 1,277 | 1,972 | 2 |
The business is losing money
Over 12 years, sales went from ₹2,534 Cr to ₹282 Cr (about −17% a year), and profit from ₹3.0 Cr to ₹−226 Cr.revenuenet_profit
Data: Revenue by year
| Period | Revenue (₹ Cr) |
|---|---|
| FY14 | 2,534 |
| FY15 | 912 |
| FY16 | 312 |
| FY17 | 563 |
| FY18 | 378 |
| FY19 | 180 |
| FY20 | 75 |
| FY21 | 6 |
| FY22 | 6 |
| FY23 | 3 |
| FY24 | 0 |
| FY25 | 7 |
| FY26 | 282 |
Data: Profit by year
| Period | Profit after tax (₹ Cr) |
|---|---|
| FY14 | 3 |
| FY15 | -371 |
| FY16 | -592 |
| FY17 | -577 |
| FY18 | -1,012 |
| FY19 | -10,927 |
| FY20 | -1,761 |
| FY21 | -3,427 |
| FY22 | -2,086 |
| FY23 | 17,937 |
| FY24 | -121 |
| FY25 | -181 |
| FY26 | -226 |
Data: OPM % by year
| Period | OPM % (%) |
|---|---|
| FY14 | 24.7 |
| FY15 | 8.9 |
| FY16 | -47.1 |
| FY17 | 6.0 |
| FY18 | -47.4 |
| FY19 | -47.8 |
| FY20 | -237.3 |
| FY21 | -400.0 |
| FY22 | -450.0 |
| FY23 | -1,100.0 |
| FY24 | -1,039.0 |
| FY25 | -1,542.9 |
| FY26 | -109.9 |
Sales exploded 4,620% last quarter
Mar 26 sales were ₹236 Cr, up 4,620% on the same quarter last year.revenue
Data: Quarterly sales
| Period | Revenue (₹ Cr) | YoY growth (%) |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 23 | 0.0 | – |
| Sep 23 | 0.0 | – |
| Dec 23 | 0.0 | – |
| Mar 24 | 0.0 | – |
| Jun 24 | 0.0 | – |
| Sep 24 | 1.0 | – |
| Dec 24 | 1.0 | – |
| Mar 25 | 5.0 | – |
| Jun 25 | 0.0 | – |
| Sep 25 | 40.0 | 3,900.0 |
| Dec 25 | 6.0 | 500.0 |
| Mar 26 | 236 | 4,620.0 |
Margins are widening — −192% → −106% in a year
Of every ₹100 of sales, the company keeps ₹−106.0 as operating profit (a year ago it kept ₹−192.3).opm_pct
Zoom out and this is the page's quiet hero: annual operating margin bottomed at −1,542.9% in FY25 and has been rebuilt to −109.9% — that recovery, not sales alone, is what powers the profit growth elsewhere on this page.operating_profit
The gross margin barely moved (60% → −85%), so the change came from running costs — the business is getting more efficient as it scales.gpm_pctopm_pct
Data: Three margins, quarterly
| Period | Gross (%) | Operating (%) | Net (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 20 | 76.0 | -773 | -3,029 |
| Jun 20 | 281 | -912 | -21,655 |
| Dec 23 | – | – | – |
| Mar 24 | – | – | – |
| Jun 24 | – | – | – |
| Sep 24 | -165 | -3,550 | -5,561 |
| Dec 24 | -48.3 | -3,159 | -4,599 |
| Mar 25 | 59.7 | -192 | -421 |
| Jun 25 | -3,733 | -7,529 | -7,331 |
| Sep 25 | 54.1 | -19.5 | -50.2 |
| Dec 25 | 98.6 | -341 | -564 |
| Mar 26 | -85.3 | -106 | -60.2 |
The bottom line changed sign — read this one carefully
Mar 26 profit after tax was ₹−142 Cr, down 517% year on year.net_profit
Data: Quarterly profit after tax
| Period | PAT (₹ Cr) | YoY growth (%) |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 23 | -26.0 | – |
| Sep 23 | -30.0 | – |
| Dec 23 | -27.0 | – |
| Mar 24 | -39.0 | -50.0 |
| Jun 24 | -51.0 | – |
| Sep 24 | -53.0 | -76.7 |
| Dec 24 | -53.0 | -96.3 |
| Mar 25 | -23.0 | 41.0 |
| Jun 25 | -31.0 | 39.2 |
| Sep 25 | -20.0 | 62.3 |
| Dec 25 | -33.0 | 37.7 |
| Mar 26 | -142 | -517.4 |
The single biggest driver was selling more.
Data: Where the profit change came from (Mar 25 → Mar 26)
| Component | Effect (₹ Cr) |
|---|---|
| PAT Mar 25 | -23 |
| More sales | −416 |
| Fatter margins | +175 |
| Other income | +126 |
| Depreciation | −2 |
| Interest | −3 |
| Everything else | +1 |
| PAT Mar 26 | -142 |
Does the profit turn into cash?
Data: Cash collected vs profit reported (annual)
| Period | Operating cash flow (₹ Cr) | Profit after tax (₹ Cr) |
|---|---|---|
| FY14 | 742 | 3.0 |
| FY15 | 432 | -371 |
| FY16 | -598 | -592 |
| FY17 | -318 | -577 |
| FY18 | -224 | -1,012 |
| FY19 | -113 | -10,927 |
| FY20 | -1,183 | -1,761 |
| FY21 | 710 | -3,427 |
| FY22 | 2,007 | -2,086 |
| FY23 | 1,428 | 17,937 |
| FY24 | -70.0 | -121 |
| FY25 | -96.0 | -181 |
| FY26 | 182 | -226 |
The cash cycle is tightening — money comes home faster
One rupee now takes about 725 days to go out the door as materials and come back as collected cash — down from 158851 days the year before.cash_conversion_cycle
The biggest mover: inventory moving faster off the shelf (165503 → 739 days).inventory_days
Data: Days of cash locked up (annual)
| Period | Customers owe (debtor days) (days) | Stock on shelf (inventory days) (days) | We owe suppliers (payable days) (days) |
|---|---|---|---|
| FY14 | 201 | 85.0 | 116 |
| FY15 | 18.0 | 405 | 399 |
| FY16 | 13.0 | 3,982 | 1,770 |
| FY17 | 2.0 | 892 | 313 |
| FY18 | 14.0 | 657 | 274 |
| FY19 | 11.0 | 1,466 | 673 |
| FY20 | 14.0 | 7,331 | 4,512 |
| FY21 | 149 | 7,331 | 4,443 |
| FY22 | 47.0 | 6,92,279 | 1,12,894 |
| FY23 | 0.0 | – | 1,09,865 |
| FY25 | 24.0 | 1,65,503 | 6,676 |
| FY26 | 16.0 | 739 | 30.0 |
No big build-out underway — growth must come from what already exists
The productive asset base has gone from ₹2,865 Cr (FY14) to ₹1,187 Cr, with another ₹166 Cr of capacity under construction right now.fixed_assetscwip
The build is bigger than the cash engine: investing outflows (₹613 Cr) exceeded operating cash (₹16.0 Cr) over the last 3 years — the difference comes from debt or shareholders.investing_cash_flowoperating_cash_flow
Data: Assets in place vs under construction (annual)
| Period | Fixed assets (₹ Cr) | Under construction (CWIP) (₹ Cr) |
|---|---|---|
| FY14 | 2,865 | 3,218 |
| FY15 | 6,060 | 3,519 |
| FY16 | 5,861 | 3,884 |
| FY17 | 5,654 | 4,268 |
| FY18 | 5,547 | 4,692 |
| FY19 | 2,022 | 103 |
| FY20 | 1,973 | 37.0 |
| FY21 | 1,406 | 37.0 |
| FY22 | 1,332 | 37.0 |
| FY23 | 1,232 | 37.0 |
| FY24 | 1,168 | 43.0 |
| FY25 | 1,180 | 155 |
| FY26 | 1,187 | 166 |
Debt is building — watch this
For every ₹100 shareholders have put in (and left in), the company has borrowed ₹3,983 — total borrowings have shrunk from ₹5,527 Cr to ₹2,788 Cr over the window.borrowings
Data: Total borrowings (annual)
| Period | Borrowings (₹ Cr) |
|---|---|
| FY14 | 5,527 |
| FY15 | 6,893 |
| FY16 | 8,306 |
| FY17 | 9,456 |
| FY18 | 10,689 |
| FY19 | 11,780 |
| FY20 | 12,918 |
| FY21 | 15,433 |
| FY22 | 15,436 |
| FY23 | 2,148 |
| FY24 | 2,219 |
| FY25 | 2,505 |
| FY26 | 2,788 |
Data: Debt vs shareholders’ money (annual)
| Period | Debt ÷ equity (x) |
|---|---|
| FY14 | 2.4 |
| FY15 | 2.6 |
| FY16 | 4.1 |
| FY17 | 6.5 |
| FY18 | 24.1 |
| FY19 | -1.1 |
| FY20 | -1.1 |
| FY21 | -1.0 |
| FY22 | -0.9 |
| FY23 | 3.9 |
| FY24 | 4.7 |
| FY25 | 8.5 |
| FY26 | 39.8 |
Every ₹100 kept in the business earns just ₹−8
Return on capital employed is −8.0% (a year ago: −6.0%). This is the single best test of business quality: what the company earns on the money it keeps.roce_pct
Data: Returns on capital (annual)
| Period | ROCE (%) |
|---|---|
| FY14 | 7.0 |
| FY15 | -1.0 |
| FY16 | -3.0 |
| FY17 | -1.0 |
| FY18 | -3.0 |
| FY19 | -2.0 |
| FY20 | -22.0 |
| FY21 | -17.0 |
| FY22 | -33.0 |
| FY23 | -26.0 |
| FY24 | -4.0 |
| FY25 | -6.0 |
| FY26 | -8.0 |
Big money is quietly accumulating
Promoters hold 89.9% (down 5 points over 8 quarters). Foreign funds own 0.6%, domestic funds 2.0%.promoters_pctfiis_pctdiis_pct
Institutions buying while the story develops is the market’s quiet vote of confidence — they meet management, you don’t.
Meanwhile domestic funds have been the sellers — from 7.9% to 2.0% over the window. Someone on the other side of the table disagrees; both sides count.diis_pct
Data: Who holds the shares, quarterly
| Period | Promoters (%) | Foreign funds (%) | Domestic funds (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 23 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 7.9 |
| Sep 23 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 7.9 |
| Dec 23 | 94.9 | 0.0 | 0.4 |
| Mar 24 | 94.9 | 0.0 | 0.4 |
| Jun 24 | 94.9 | 0.0 | 0.4 |
| Sep 24 | 94.9 | 0.0 | 0.4 |
| Dec 24 | 94.9 | 0.0 | 0.4 |
| Mar 25 | 94.9 | 0.0 | 0.4 |
| Jun 25 | 94.9 | 0.0 | 0.4 |
| Sep 25 | 94.9 | 0.0 | 0.4 |
| Dec 25 | 94.9 | 0.0 | 0.4 |
| Mar 26 | 89.9 | 0.6 | 2.1 |
- Foreign funds have neither piled in nor fled — their stake has held near 0.6% for 8 quarters. No smart-money signal, in either direction.fiis_pct
Interesting, not obvious
The numbers are genuinely mixed, and the price is roughly fair to the delivery so far.
Best thing in the data: sales rising (₹5.0 Cr → ₹236 Cr).revenue
Biggest worry: debt moving the wrong way (8.46× → 39.83×).borrowings
Machine-written research from Screener data — every number traces to its source column. Sector Alpha is not a SEBI-registered investment adviser; nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell. Not investment advice.
Straight answers from the data
What does Swan Defence and Heavy Industries Ltd do?
Incorporated in 1997, Swan Defence and Heavy Industries Ltd is engaged in the construction of vessels, repairs, and refits of ships and rigs and heavy engineering[1]. It is listed in the Ship - Docks/Breaking/Repairs sector with a market capitalisation of ₹11,882 Cr.
What is Swan Defence and Heavy Industries Ltd's share price?
As of 1 July 2026, Swan Defence and Heavy Industries Ltd trades at ₹2,262, up 754% over the past year, with a market capitalisation of ₹11,882 Cr. Beating NIFTY 500 for 77 weeks. Prices are weekly closes from Screener data; this page refreshes with each weekly update.
What is Swan Defence and Heavy Industries Ltd's share price target?
Sector Alpha does not publish broker-style price targets. Our discounted-cash-flow model estimates Swan Defence and Heavy Industries Ltd's intrinsic value at ₹8.0 per share under base assumptions (bear ₹5.0, bull ₹10.0), against the current price of ₹2,262 — a 100% premium to model value. These are model estimates, not forecasts — treat them as one input alongside the valuation history below, not as a target.
What did Swan Defence and Heavy Industries Ltd report in its latest quarterly results?
In its most recent reported quarter (Q4 FY26, quarter ended March 2026): Mar 26 sales were ₹236 Cr, up 4,620% on the same quarter last year. Mar 26 profit after tax was ₹−142 Cr, down 517% year on year. Figures are from Screener-scraped quarterly filings; the page updates when the next quarter is filed.
Is Swan Defence and Heavy Industries Ltd growing?
Sales exploded 4,620% last quarter. Mar 26 sales were ₹236 Cr, up 4,620% on the same quarter last year.
Are Swan Defence and Heavy Industries Ltd's profits growing?
The bottom line changed sign — read this one carefully. Mar 26 profit after tax was ₹−142 Cr, down 517% year on year.
What are Swan Defence and Heavy Industries Ltd's operating margins?
Margins are widening — −192% → −106% in a year. In the most recent quarter, of every ₹100 of sales, the company keeps ₹−106.0 as operating profit (a year ago it kept ₹−192.3).
What is Swan Defence and Heavy Industries Ltd's long-term growth record?
Revenue grew from ₹2,534 Cr in FY14 to ₹282 Cr in FY26 — a -16.7% compound annual growth rate over 12 years. Profit CAGR is not meaningful across this span — the company reported losses in FY15, FY16, FY17, FY18, FY19, FY20, FY21, FY22, FY24, FY25, FY26.
Is Swan Defence and Heavy Industries Ltd stock in an uptrend?
An uptrend that has held for 75 weeks. Swan Defence and Heavy Industries Ltd is in Stage 2 — advancing, 75 weeks in (confirmed). Stages follow Stan Weinstein's four-phase read of weekly price against the 200-day average: basing (1), advancing (2), topping (3), declining (4).
Why is Swan Defence and Heavy Industries Ltd stock rising?
The price is up 754% over the past year, in a confirmed Stage 2 uptrend (75 weeks), and has beaten NIFTY 500 for 77 weeks.
Is Swan Defence and Heavy Industries Ltd beating the NIFTY 500?
Yes — beating NIFTY 500 for 77 weeks, as of 1 July 2026. Relative strength is measured weekly against the NIFTY 500 (Mansfield RS): a positive reading means the stock has outperformed the index over the trailing window, week after week.
Where is Swan Defence and Heavy Industries Ltd in its business cycle?
The data reads Swan Defence and Heavy Industries Ltd as a deep cyclical business currently in its expansion phase — earnings at 37% of their own historical range. Profits swing violently in this business — real losses in FY15 and FY16 and FY17 and FY18 and FY19 and FY20 and FY21 and FY22 and FY24 and FY25 and FY26. That is what “deep cyclical” means: the same company looks brilliant at the top of its cycle and broken at the bottom.
Who owns Swan Defence and Heavy Industries Ltd — what is the promoter holding?
Promoters hold 89.9% (down 5 points over 8 quarters). Foreign funds own 0.6%, domestic funds 2.0%. Institutions buying while the story develops is the market’s quiet vote of confidence — they meet management, you don’t. Shareholding is from Screener's quarterly filings data.
Does Swan Defence and Heavy Industries Ltd have too much debt?
Debt is building — watch this. For every ₹100 shareholders have put in (and left in), the company has borrowed ₹3,983 — total borrowings have shrunk from ₹5,527 Cr to ₹2,788 Cr over the window.
What is the bull case for Swan Defence and Heavy Industries Ltd?
Profits are still 101% below their best year. Best thing in the data: sales rising (₹5.0 Cr → ₹236 Cr). Sales exploded 4,620% last quarter.
What is the bear case for Swan Defence and Heavy Industries Ltd — what could break the story?
Biggest worry: debt moving the wrong way (8.46× → 39.83×). Two quarters of margins reversing would kill this story. The nearest-term thing to watch: if quarterly growth slips below 2310%, the story weakens. This falsification condition is stated up front so the thesis can be checked against incoming quarters, not defended after the fact.
Is Swan Defence and Heavy Industries Ltd a stock worth studying right now?
Sector Alpha does not publish buy or sell recommendations — this is a research read, not advice. What the data says: interesting, not obvious. The numbers are genuinely mixed, and the price is roughly fair to the delivery so far. Across the 7-model scorecard the composite research signal is on watch at 47% confidence. This is machine-written research compiled from Screener data — every number traces to its source — and it is not investment advice. Do your own diligence.