Swan Defence and Heavy Industries Ltd

Price story Before the numbers, the tape. A stock price moves through four repeating seasons: a flat base (stage 1), an advance (2), a top (3), a decline (4). Where the price sits in that cycle frames everything below.

Swan Defence and Heavy Industries Ltd trades at ₹2,438, in a confirmed uptrend and 81 weeks into that stage. That is +53.9% against its own 200-day average. It sits at 87% of a 52-week range of ₹550 to ₹2,722. On relative strength it has been ahead of the NIFTY 500 on a trailing-13-week view for 11 straight weeks.

Today the stock is in a confirmed uptrend — week 81 of stage 2, confirmed. At ₹2,438 it trades +53.9% versus its 200-day average and sits at 87% of its 52-week range (₹550–₹2,722).

Against the market, two honest reads. Cumulative: over the last 10.5 years the stock moved +3,868% while the NIFTY 500 moved +284% — ahead of the index over the full window. Recent form: on a trailing-13-week view the stock has been ahead for 11 straight weeks — the ribbon below is that same metric, week by week.

What would end the trend, mechanically: two Friday closes in a row below the 200-day line. That is the exit rule — no debates.

Valuation P/E is the price of ₹1 of annual profit: how many rupees the market pays for each rupee the company earns in a year.

P/E does not price Swan Defence and Heavy Industries Ltd — earnings are negative, so there is no multiple to rank against its own history. The revenue and margin lines below are where a turn, when it comes, would show first. On sales the market values Swan Defence and Heavy Industries Ltd at 45.2× its FY26 revenue of ₹282 Cr.

With earnings negative, P/E does not price — there is no multiple to rank against its own history. The revenue and margin lines below are where the turn, when it comes, will show first.

Put together: the multiple is unremarkable against its own past, so the story rests on the earnings line underneath it, not the multiple.

Stage: No read Every business sits somewhere on a fundamental arc, and this page names the spot before anything else. The last twelve quarters of revenue, profit and EPS growth — plus the return the business earns on its capital — are read as curves: Deteriorating (the curves are falling), Turning around (a trough has just formed and the last few quarters lift off it), Improving (the climb off the trough is sustained), Consistent (steadily positive with healthy returns), Topping out (still high but decelerating from the peak). When the curves genuinely disagree the read is Mixed; too little history is No read. CAGR (compound annual growth rate) is the smooth yearly pace that turns the starting value into the latest one — the fairest way to compare growth across different time spans. Read the columns together: if the 1-year number towers over the 10-year, recent growth is running hotter than the long-run trend. A dash means that window is not held, or the base year was a loss (where a growth rate is not meaningful).

Swan Defence and Heavy Industries Ltd reads as no read on its fundamental arc. Under eight usable quarters on the growth trio — not enough history for an honest trajectory read. The read is built from 9 quarters across 2 curves, on partial evidence.

Why it matters: with too little history, an honest page says so instead of guessing a trajectory.

The latest quarter’s profit carries a one-off item larger than the operating base, so the profit curve is shown but does not vote in the stage call.

Return readings here are annual, not quarterly — read as level and direction only; they can confirm the growth curves but never drive the stage on their own.

Fewer than eight usable quarters on the growth curves — this page will not guess a trajectory from a stub of history.

4-Factor Sector Score

40.7/100 — rank 3 of 4 in Ship - Docks/Breaking/Repairs · 58% evidence confidence

Swan Defence and Heavy Industries Ltd scores 40.7 out of 100 against the 4 companies it is compared with in Ship - Docks/Breaking/Repairs, ranking 3. Fill the missing evidence before acting; the ranking is deliberately pulled toward neutral.

The four contributions add to the total exactly: 19.7 + 3 + 10 + 8 = 40.7. This is the SAME number shown on the sector comparison — it is computed once, for the whole peer set, and read here.

What would change it: The read weakens if profit growth turns negative or margin improvement reverses while sector-relative strength deteriorates.

Revenue Revenue is the top line: everything the company billed its customers in the period.

Swan Defence and Heavy Industries Ltd reported ₹31.0 Cr of revenue in the Jun 26 quarter. Over 10 years it has compounded at −1.0% a year. The last full year, FY26, came in at ₹282 Cr. The last four reported quarters add to ₹313 Cr.

FY26 revenue came in at ₹282 Cr (+3,928.6% on the year), capping 10 years at −1.0% compound. The latest quarter (Jun 26) printed ₹31.0 Cr, null year on year.

Pace check: the last four quarters averaged +3,006.7% growth against the decade's −1.0% — the current year is running faster than its own long-run rate.

Operating margin Operating margin is what is left of every ₹100 of sales after running the business, before interest and tax. It is the cleanest read on pricing power and cost control.

Swan Defence and Heavy Industries Ltd's operating margin is −69.0% in the Jun 26 quarter, +7,460.0 percentage points against the same quarter a year ago. Across 13 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged −1,619.0% to 25.0%. The current quarter sits inside that band.

The latest quarter's operating margin is −69.0%, +7,460.0 pp against the same quarter a year ago. Across 13 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged −1,619.0%–25.0%.

Why the margin moved: operating margin went +7,459.9 pp year on year while gross margin went +3,831.9 pp — the gain came mostly below the gross line: operating leverage, with costs spread over a bigger revenue base.

Net profit Net profit is what survives every cost, interest and tax — the number EPS, dividends and book value all grow from.

Swan Defence and Heavy Industries Ltd posted a net loss of ₹42.0 Cr in the Jun 26 quarter. That quarter carries a one-off item larger than its own revenue, so the year-on-year figure is an artefact rather than a trading result. The full FY26 year was a loss of ₹226 Cr. That loss is 135.5% of the quarter's revenue.

Jun 26 profit was ₹−42.0 Cr, null year on year. On the full year, FY26 printed ₹−226 Cr (null).

🚨 Read this profit with care: at ₹−42.0 Cr it is larger than the whole quarter's revenue of ₹31.0 Cr — no operating business earns more than it sells, so this is a one-off item (a debt-to-equity conversion, a tax write-back or an asset sale), not money the business earned. The underlying operations are running at −69.0% operating margin; the year-on-year jump and any P/E built on this number are artefacts of the one-off, not a real earnings turn.

Cash flow — the router The P&L says what was earned; the cash-flow statement says what actually arrived. Operating cash flow (CFO) against profit is the cleanest lie detector in the accounts.

Over the last 2 fiscal years 12% of Swan Defence and Heavy Industries Ltd's reported profit arrived as operating cash — a gap worth watching. In FY26 that was ₹182 Cr of operating cash against ₹−226 Cr of profit. After ₹81.0 Cr of capital spending, ₹101 Cr was left as free cash.

FY26: operating cash of ₹182 Cr against reported profit of ₹−226 Cr, leaving free cash of ₹101 Cr after ₹81.0 Cr of capital spending. Across the last 2 fiscal years the conversion rate is 12% of profit.

Cash-flow readings here are annual — that is the resolution our series carries, so this section moves once a year.

🚨 Why conversion sits at 12%: the cash cycle tightened 80 days between FY19 and FY26 — cash that used to wait in the cycle now reaches the bank sooner. Less than 70% of profit arriving as cash is the thing to watch on this page.

Router verdict: no single sink dominates — the next section checks both the working-capital cycle and the capital spending.

Where the cash goes Working capital is the cash tied up between paying suppliers and getting paid: debtor days (customers owe), inventory days (stock waits), and the cash conversion cycle (the whole loop, in days of sales).

Swan Defence and Heavy Industries Ltd's cash conversion cycle runs 725 days in FY26, down from 805 days in FY19. Capital spending ran ₹276 Cr over the last 3 years. At FY26 sales of ₹282 Cr each day of that cycle holds about ₹0.8 Cr, so roughly ₹560 Cr sits inside the business at any moment.

FY26: debtors at 16 days, inventory at 739 days — roughly 24.3 months of stock waiting to sell; that is where the cash sits while it waits — for a full cycle of 725 days, tighter than FY19's 805.

The full loop: cash goes out to suppliers and production on day 0; stock waits 739 days to sell; customers pay about 16 days after that; and suppliers themselves are paid at 30 days — netting out to the 725-day cycle.

In money terms: at FY26 sales of ₹282 Cr, each day of the cycle holds about ₹0.8 Cr — so the 725-day loop keeps roughly ₹560 Cr sitting inside the business at any moment.

On the investment side: capital spending of ₹276 Cr over the last 3 fiscal years against ₹192 Cr of depreciation — building somewhat ahead of wear-and-tear. Capital work-in-progress stands at ₹166 Cr (FY26) — capacity paid for but not yet earning.

The synthesis: neither the cycle nor the build-out is hoarding the cash — the machine is reasonably clean.

Return on capital Return on capital employed (ROCE) is the profit the whole business earns on all the money in it — equity and debt together. It is the single best test of whether growth creates value or just size.

Swan Defence and Heavy Industries Ltd earns a ROCE of −8% in FY26. That is up from a trough of −33% in FY22. A return-on-invested-capital spread against the cost of capital is not computable from what is held here. The wiring behind it is −80.1% net margin on 0.09× asset turns.

FY26 ROCE is −8%, recovered from a FY22 trough of −33% — the full ladder below shows the fall and the climb, undoctored.

Why the return is what it is — the wiring (FY26): −80.1% net margin × 0.09× asset turns × 45.24× balance-sheet leverage ≈ −326.1% on equity. Margin does its share; leverage is a meaningful part of the equation.

The quarterly return curves and the return-on-invested-capital overlay, which only the second data source carries, are not drawn on this page: its two data sources disagree by up to 3,636% on reported income across 16 comparable periods. A figure two sources cannot agree on is not drawn — the gap is a decision, not missing data.

Debt Debt-to-equity says how much of the business is funded by borrowings; interest cover says how many times operating profit pays the interest bill. Low and high, respectively, is the safe corner.

Swan Defence and Heavy Industries Ltd carries ₹2,788 Cr of borrowings against ₹70.0 Cr of equity in FY26, a debt-to-equity of 39.83. Operating profit covers the interest bill −26×. Over 5 years borrowings went from ₹15,433 Cr to ₹2,788 Cr. Capital spending ran ₹276 Cr across the last 3 of those years.

FY26: borrowings of ₹2,788 Cr against equity of ₹70.0 Cr — a debt-to-equity of 39.83. Operating profit covers the interest bill −26×. Over 5 years borrowings went from ₹15,433 Cr to ₹2,788 Cr while capital spending ran ₹276 Cr in just the last 3 — the build-out is being paid for out of cash, not debt.

The total-debt and debt-to-equity series, which only the second data source carries, are not drawn on this page: its two data sources disagree by up to 3,636% on reported income across 16 comparable periods. A figure two sources cannot agree on is not drawn — the gap is a decision, not missing data.

Ownership Who owns the stock, quarter by quarter: promoters (the controlling owners), foreign and domestic institutions, and the public. Steady accumulation by people close to the numbers is a signal; a quiet register is also an answer.

Promoters cut 5.0 points of Swan Defence and Heavy Industries Ltd over 8 quarters, the biggest move on the register. That takes promoters to 89.9% of the company. Domestic institutions moved +1.5 points over the same window, to 1.9%. The register is read on the four disclosed classes only; nothing is inferred between filings.

The register over the last two years — Promoters: −5.0 points over 8 quarters to 89.9%; Domestic institutions: +1.5 points over 8 quarters to 1.9%; Foreign institutions: +0.6 points over 8 quarters to 0.7%.

🚨 Why the register moved: promoters drove it (−5.0 points), absorbed on the other side by domestic institutions (+1.5 points) — distribution into the market’s bid.

Safety line The Z-score estimates how far a company sits from balance-sheet distress — above roughly 3 is safe, below roughly 1.8 is the danger zone. It was built for manufacturers, so it is not applied to banks and lenders.

Swan Defence and Heavy Industries Ltd: the Z-score is not available for this stock, so we say so rather than invent one. It is a distance-to-distress estimate from the balance sheet, not a forecast of failure. The debt, cash-flow and return sections above carry the balance-sheet evidence this page does hold, and each of them states its own reporting date.

The safety line in one sentence: the Z-score is not available for this stock, so we say so rather than invent one.

Frequently asked questions