Saregama India Ltd

Price story Before the numbers, the tape. A stock price moves through four repeating seasons: a flat base (stage 1), an advance (2), a top (3), a decline (4). Where the price sits in that cycle frames everything below.

Saregama India Ltd trades at ₹527, in a confirmed uptrend and 8 weeks into that stage. That is +21.9% against its own 200-day average. It sits at 100% of a 52-week range of ₹321 to ₹527. On relative strength it has been ahead of the NIFTY 500 on a trailing-13-week view for 23 straight weeks.

Today the stock is in a confirmed uptrend — week 8 of stage 2, confirmed. At ₹527 it trades +21.9% versus its 200-day average and sits at 100% of its 52-week range (₹321–₹527).

Against the market, two honest reads. Cumulative: over the last 10.4 years the stock moved +2,093% while the NIFTY 500 moved +278% — ahead of the index over the full window. Recent form: on a trailing-13-week view the stock has been ahead for 23 straight weeks — the ribbon below is that same metric, week by week.

What would end the trend, mechanically: two Friday closes in a row below the 200-day line. That is the exit rule — no debates.

Valuation P/E is the price of ₹1 of annual profit: how many rupees the market pays for each rupee the company earns in a year.

Saregama India Ltd trades at 44.6× P/E, mid-range by its own standards (65th percentile). Its long-run median P/E is 38.5×, measured across 10.4 years of weekly readings. This places the multiple against the stock’s own record, and says nothing about what the business is worth.

Today's P/E of 44.6× is mid-range by its own standards (65th percentile), against a long-run median of 38.5× measured over 10.4 years of weekly readings. This is a comparison against the stock's own history — not a claim about what it is worth.

Why the multiple sits where it does: over the past year annual EPS moved +1.4% against a +9.9% price move — the price outran earnings, pushing the multiple UP its own range.

The price move, decomposed: over 5y, of the +9.8%/yr price move, ~+10.7%/yr came from earnings growth and ~−0.9 pp from the multiple (roughly flat); over 10y, of the +37.4%/yr price move, ~+34.1%/yr came from earnings growth and ~+3.3 pp from the multiple (expanding). The split is the honest approximate (price return minus earnings growth); it makes the rally itself visible instead of hiding it behind the percentile.

Put together: the multiple is full against its own past, so the story rests on the earnings line underneath it, not the multiple.

What the price assumes This reading works the multiple backwards. It asks one question: what yearly rate of profit growth is a buyer at the market price already paying for? The number is the growth rate that makes eleven years of profit — six years growing, then five fading — add up to that day's market price, once each year is discounted at 11% a year.

At its price on 13 June 2026, Saregama India Ltd was priced for profit growth of about 23.5% a year. Profit itself has compounded 40.2% a year over the past 10 years. The market pays that at 44.6× P/E, the 65th percentile of its own 10-year range.

What the two numbers say together. The multiple is full against its own past, and the growth the price is paying for is below what this company has actually delivered. Both readings sit on the same earnings, so they are one reading rather than two.

How to hold this number: it is a reading of one day's price, taken on 13 June 2026, not a running figure. A higher price is paying for more growth and a lower price for less, so it moves whenever the price does, and this page does not restate it between measurements. Every other number on this page is read off the live quote.

Stage: Consistent Every business sits somewhere on a fundamental arc, and this page names the spot before anything else. The last twelve quarters of revenue, profit and EPS growth — plus the return the business earns on its capital — are read as curves: Deteriorating (the curves are falling), Turning around (a trough has just formed and the last few quarters lift off it), Improving (the climb off the trough is sustained), Consistent (steadily positive with healthy returns), Topping out (still high but decelerating from the peak). When the curves genuinely disagree the read is Mixed; too little history is No read. CAGR (compound annual growth rate) is the smooth yearly pace that turns the starting value into the latest one — the fairest way to compare growth across different time spans. Read the columns together: if the 1-year number towers over the 10-year, recent growth is running hotter than the long-run trend. A dash means that window is not held, or the base year was a loss (where a growth rate is not meaningful).

Saregama India Ltd reads as consistent on its fundamental arc. Consistent — revenue, profit and EPS growth have stayed positive through the window, with ROCE at 16.6% and holding. The read is built from 12 quarters across 4 curves, on full evidence.

Why it matters: steady curves with healthy returns are the compounding setup — the risk is the price, not the business.

4-Factor Sector Score

57.9/100 — rank 2 of 2 in Music Licensing · 97% evidence confidence

Saregama India Ltd scores 57.9 out of 100 against the 2 companies it is compared with in Music Licensing, ranking 2. Strong business, demanding price: keep it on the quality list, but require either earnings upgrades or valuation compression.

The four contributions add to the total exactly: 17.6 + 16.4 + 4.3 + 19.6 = 57.9. This is the SAME number shown on the sector comparison — it is computed once, for the whole peer set, and read here.

What would change it: The read weakens if profit growth turns negative or margin improvement reverses while sector-relative strength deteriorates.

Revenue Revenue is the top line: everything the company billed its customers in the period.

Saregama India Ltd reported ₹264 Cr of revenue in the Jun 26 quarter, +27.5% year on year. That is the 2nd straight quarter of year-on-year growth. Over 10 years it has compounded at 16.1% a year. The last full year, FY26, came in at ₹985 Cr. The last four reported quarters add to ₹1,041 Cr.

FY26 revenue came in at ₹985 Cr (−15.9% on the year), capping 10 years at 16.1% compound. The latest quarter (Jun 26) printed ₹264 Cr, +27.5% year on year — the 2nd consecutive quarter of year-over-year growth.

Pace check: the last four quarters averaged −1.2% growth against the decade's 16.1% — the current year is running slower than its own long-run rate.

Acceleration check: trailing-twelve-month revenue grew −11.3% over the last 4 quarters against +11.1%/yr over the last 8 — rolling over; TTM profit +8.3% vs +7.6%/yr — stabilising.

Operating margin Operating margin is what is left of every ₹100 of sales after running the business, before interest and tax. It is the cleanest read on pricing power and cost control.

Saregama India Ltd's operating margin is 35.0% in the Jun 26 quarter, +8.0 percentage points against the same quarter a year ago. Across 13 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged 1.2% to 35.0%. The current quarter sits inside that band.

The latest quarter's operating margin is 35.0%, +8.0 pp against the same quarter a year ago. Across 13 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged 1.2%–35.0%.

Why the margin moved: operating margin went +8.2 pp year on year while gross margin went +0.0 pp — the gain came mostly below the gross line: operating leverage, with costs spread over a bigger revenue base.

Net profit Net profit is what survives every cost, interest and tax — the number EPS, dividends and book value all grow from.

Saregama India Ltd earned ₹52.0 Cr of net profit in the Jun 26 quarter, +40.5% year on year. It is the 2nd consecutive quarter of growth. Full-year FY26 profit was ₹206 Cr. The 10-year compound rate is 40.2%. That is 19.7% of the quarter's revenue. The same quarter a year earlier earned ₹37.0 Cr.

Jun 26 profit was ₹52.0 Cr, +40.5% year on year — the 2nd consecutive quarter of growth. On the full year, FY26 printed ₹206 Cr (+1.0%), and the 10-year compound rate is 40.2%.

Why profit moved: revenue contributed +27.5% and the margin +8.0 pp — the quarter was margin-led: most of the profit growth came from keeping more of each sale.

Pace comparison, last four quarters: profit +11.0% vs revenue −1.2%. Profit is growing faster than sales — fixed costs are being spread over a bigger base, and each extra rupee of revenue drops more to the bottom line.

Cash flow — the router The P&L says what was earned; the cash-flow statement says what actually arrived. Operating cash flow (CFO) against profit is the cleanest lie detector in the accounts.

Over the last 3 fiscal years 86% of Saregama India Ltd's reported profit arrived as operating cash — the cash follows the profit. In FY26 that was ₹100 Cr of operating cash against ₹206 Cr of profit. After ₹278 Cr of capital spending, ₹−178 Cr was left as free cash.

FY26: operating cash of ₹100 Cr against reported profit of ₹206 Cr, leaving free cash of ₹−178 Cr after ₹278 Cr of capital spending. Across the last 3 fiscal years the conversion rate is 86% of profit.

Cash-flow readings here are annual — that is the resolution our series carries, so this section moves once a year.

Why conversion sits at 86%: the cash cycle tightened 198 days between FY21 and FY26 — cash that used to wait in the cycle now reaches the bank sooner.

Router verdict: the bigger cash user is investment — capital spending ran 4.9× depreciation over three years, so the next section's job is to check what that build-out is buying.

Where the cash goes Working capital is the cash tied up between paying suppliers and getting paid: debtor days (customers owe), inventory days (stock waits), and the cash conversion cycle (the whole loop, in days of sales).

Saregama India Ltd's cash conversion cycle runs 66 days in FY26, down from 264 days in FY21. Capital spending ran ₹865 Cr over the last 3 years. At FY26 sales of ₹985 Cr each day of that cycle holds about ₹2.7 Cr, so roughly ₹178 Cr sits inside the business at any moment.

FY26: debtors at 66 days (an asset-light business — no inventory to speak of) — for a full cycle of 66 days, tighter than FY21's 264.

In money terms: at FY26 sales of ₹985 Cr, each day of the cycle holds about ₹2.7 Cr — so the 66-day loop keeps roughly ₹178 Cr sitting inside the business at any moment.

On the investment side: capital spending of ₹865 Cr over the last 3 fiscal years against ₹176 Cr of depreciation — the company is building well ahead of wear-and-tear. Capital work-in-progress stands at ₹0.0 Cr (FY26) — capacity paid for but not yet earning.

The synthesis: the cash is going into capacity, not disappearing into the cycle — the question becomes whether the new capacity earns.

Return on capital Return on capital employed (ROCE) is the profit the whole business earns on all the money in it — equity and debt together. It is the single best test of whether growth creates value or just size.

Saregama India Ltd earns a ROCE of 18% in FY26. That is up from a trough of 4% in FY15. Return on invested capital clears the cost of that capital by +1.5 percentage points, so growth here adds value rather than only size. The wiring behind it is 20.9% net margin on 0.42× asset turns.

FY26 ROCE is 18%, recovered from a FY15 trough of 4% — the full ladder below shows the fall and the climb, undoctored.

Why the return is what it is — the wiring (FY26): 20.9% net margin × 0.42× asset turns × 1.37× balance-sheet leverage ≈ 12.0% on equity. Margin is doing the heavy lifting; leverage is modest — this is an earned return, not a borrowed one.

The capstone test — ROIC − WACC: 13.5% − 12.0% = a +1.5 pp spread. The 12.0% is a standing assumption for the cost of capital in India, not a per-stock estimate — read the sign and the size of the spread, not the decimals. Positive but thin — value creation with little room for error.

Debt Debt-to-equity says how much of the business is funded by borrowings. Low is the safe corner; the trend matters as much as the level.

Saregama India Ltd carries total debt of ₹73.0 Cr against shareholder equity of ₹1,695 Cr as of Mar 26, a debt-to-equity of 0.04 — effectively unlevered. On the annual view that ratio went from 0.00 in FY22 to 0.04 in FY26. The returns elsewhere on this page are therefore earned rather than borrowed.

Mar 26: total debt of ₹73.0 Cr against shareholder equity of ₹1,695 Cr — a debt-to-equity of 0.04. On the annual view, debt-to-equity went from 0.00 (FY22) to 0.04 (FY26). The returns on this page are earned, not borrowed.

Ownership Who owns the stock, quarter by quarter: promoters (the controlling owners), foreign and domestic institutions, and the public. Steady accumulation by people close to the numbers is a signal; a quiet register is also an answer.

Foreign institutions cut 5.7 points of Saregama India Ltd over 8 quarters, the biggest move on the register. That takes foreign institutions to 11.5% of the company. Domestic institutions moved +5.4 points over the same window, to 8.6%. The register is read on the four disclosed classes only; nothing is inferred between filings.

The register over the last two years — Foreign institutions: −5.7 points over 8 quarters to 11.5%; Domestic institutions: +5.4 points over 8 quarters to 8.6%; Promoters: +1.6 points over 8 quarters to 60.8%.

Why the register moved: rotation — foreign institutions −5.7 points against domestic institutions +5.4 points over 8 quarters, with promoters +1.6 points — one class of institutions handing the register to the other, not a verdict change by the people closest to the numbers.

Safety line The Z-score estimates how far a company sits from balance-sheet distress — above roughly 3 is safe, below roughly 1.8 is the danger zone. It was built for manufacturers, so it is not applied to banks and lenders.

Saregama India Ltd: the Z-score is not available for this stock, so we say so rather than invent one. It is a distance-to-distress estimate from the balance sheet, not a forecast of failure. The debt, cash-flow and return sections above carry the balance-sheet evidence this page does hold, and each of them states its own reporting date.

The safety line in one sentence: the Z-score is not available for this stock, so we say so rather than invent one.

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