Safari Industries (India) Ltd

Price story Before the numbers, the tape. A stock price moves through four repeating seasons: a flat base (stage 1), an advance (2), a top (3), a decline (4). Where the price sits in that cycle frames everything below.

Safari Industries (India) Ltd trades at ₹1,497, in a downtrend and 27 weeks into that stage. That is −14.2% against its own 200-day average. It sits at 8% of a 52-week range of ₹1,418 to ₹2,432. On relative strength it is currently behind the NIFTY 500 on a trailing-13-week view (3 weeks and counting).

Today the stock is in a downtrend — week 27 of stage 4, confirmed. At ₹1,497 it trades −14.2% versus its 200-day average and sits at 8% of its 52-week range (₹1,418–₹2,432).

Against the market, two honest reads. Cumulative: over the last 10.4 years the stock moved +1,628% while the NIFTY 500 moved +278% — ahead of the index over the full window. Recent form: on a trailing-13-week view the stock is currently behind (3 weeks and counting; last ahead the week of 2026-07-24) — the ribbon below is that same metric, week by week.

What would end the trend, mechanically: two Friday closes in a row below the 200-day line. That is the exit rule — no debates.

Valuation P/E is the price of ₹1 of annual profit: how many rupees the market pays for each rupee the company earns in a year.

Safari Industries (India) Ltd trades at 44.5× P/E, near the bottom of its own range — cheaper only 7% of the time. Its long-run median P/E is 65.7×, measured across 10.4 years of weekly readings. This places the multiple against the stock’s own record, and says nothing about what the business is worth.

Today's P/E of 44.5× is near the bottom of its own range — cheaper only 7% of the time, against a long-run median of 65.7× measured over 10.4 years of weekly readings. This is a comparison against the stock's own history — not a claim about what it is worth.

Why the multiple sits where it does: over the past year annual EPS moved +17.2% against a −27.0% price move — earnings outran the price, pushing the multiple DOWN its own range.

The price move, decomposed: over 10y, of the +32.1%/yr price move, ~+33.5%/yr came from earnings growth and ~−1.4 pp from the multiple (compressing). The split is the honest approximate (price return minus earnings growth); it makes the rally itself visible instead of hiding it behind the percentile.

Put together: the multiple is low against its own past, so the story rests on the earnings line underneath it, not the multiple.

What the price assumes This reading works the multiple backwards. It asks one question: what yearly rate of profit growth is a buyer at the market price already paying for? The number is the growth rate that makes eleven years of profit — six years growing, then five fading — add up to that day's market price, once each year is discounted at 11% a year.

At its price on 13 June 2026, Safari Industries (India) Ltd was priced for profit growth of about 25.4% a year. Profit itself has compounded 35.6% a year over the past 10 years. The market pays that at 44.5× P/E, the 7th percentile of its own 10-year range.

What the two numbers say together. The multiple is low against its own past, and the growth the price is paying for is below what this company has actually delivered. Both readings sit on the same earnings, so they are one reading rather than two.

How to hold this number: it is a reading of one day's price, taken on 13 June 2026, not a running figure. A higher price is paying for more growth and a lower price for less, so it moves whenever the price does, and this page does not restate it between measurements. Every other number on this page is read off the live quote.

Stage: Turning around Every business sits somewhere on a fundamental arc, and this page names the spot before anything else. The last twelve quarters of revenue, profit and EPS growth — plus the return the business earns on its capital — are read as curves: Deteriorating (the curves are falling), Turning around (a trough has just formed and the last few quarters lift off it), Improving (the climb off the trough is sustained), Consistent (steadily positive with healthy returns), Topping out (still high but decelerating from the peak). When the curves genuinely disagree the read is Mixed; too little history is No read. CAGR (compound annual growth rate) is the smooth yearly pace that turns the starting value into the latest one — the fairest way to compare growth across different time spans. Read the columns together: if the 1-year number towers over the 10-year, recent growth is running hotter than the long-run trend. A dash means that window is not held, or the base year was a loss (where a growth rate is not meaningful).

Safari Industries (India) Ltd reads as turning around on its fundamental arc. Turning around — profit growth swung from −13.5% at the trough to +10.7% off a 5-quarter-old trough, ROCE holding at 19.9%. The read is built from 12 quarters across 4 curves, on full evidence.

Why it matters: growth inflections are where re-ratings start — the curves say a turn is forming, so the question becomes whether the next quarters confirm it.

4-Factor Sector Score

46.5/100 — rank 1 of 2 in Travel Bags · 97% evidence confidence

Safari Industries (India) Ltd scores 46.5 out of 100 against the 2 companies it is compared with in Travel Bags, ranking 1. Balanced evidence: keep at normal research priority and require another comparable period before raising conviction.

The four contributions add to the total exactly: 16.1 + 16.8 + 8.8 + 4.8 = 46.5. This is the SAME number shown on the sector comparison — it is computed once, for the whole peer set, and read here.

What would change it: The read weakens if profit growth turns negative or margin improvement reverses while sector-relative strength deteriorates.

Revenue Revenue is the top line: everything the company billed its customers in the period.

Safari Industries (India) Ltd reported ₹589 Cr of revenue in the Jun 26 quarter, +11.6% year on year. That is the 12th straight quarter of year-on-year growth. Over 10 years it has compounded at 22.4% a year. The last full year, FY26, came in at ₹2,047 Cr. The last four reported quarters add to ₹2,108 Cr.

FY26 revenue came in at ₹2,047 Cr (+15.5% on the year), capping 10 years at 22.4% compound. The latest quarter (Jun 26) printed ₹589 Cr, +11.6% year on year — the 12th consecutive quarter of year-over-year growth.

Pace check: the last four quarters averaged +14.1% growth against the decade's 22.4% — the current year is running slower than its own long-run rate.

Acceleration check: trailing-twelve-month revenue grew +13.9% over the last 4 quarters against +15.8%/yr over the last 8 — stabilising; TTM profit +10.7% vs −1.5%/yr — accelerating.

Operating margin Operating margin is what is left of every ₹100 of sales after running the business, before interest and tax. It is the cleanest read on pricing power and cost control.

Safari Industries (India) Ltd's operating margin is 13.0% in the Jun 26 quarter, −2.0 percentage points against the same quarter a year ago. Across 13 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged −1.7% to 18.0%. The current quarter sits inside that band.

The latest quarter's operating margin is 13.0%, −2.0 pp against the same quarter a year ago. Across 13 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged −1.7%–18.0%.

🚨 Why the margin moved: operating margin went −2.2 pp year on year while gross margin went −1.2 pp — the loss came mostly below the gross line: operating leverage, with costs spread over a bigger revenue base.

Net profit Net profit is what survives every cost, interest and tax — the number EPS, dividends and book value all grow from.

Safari Industries (India) Ltd earned ₹48.0 Cr of net profit in the Jun 26 quarter, −4.0% year on year. Full-year FY26 profit was ₹168 Cr. The 10-year compound rate is 35.6%. That is 8.1% of the quarter's revenue. The same quarter a year earlier earned ₹50.0 Cr.

Jun 26 profit was ₹48.0 Cr, −4.0% year on year. On the full year, FY26 printed ₹168 Cr (+17.5%), and the 10-year compound rate is 35.6%.

🚨 Why profit moved: revenue contributed +11.6% and the margin −2.0 pp — the quarter was revenue-led despite a thinner margin.

Pace comparison, last four quarters: profit +14.2% vs revenue +14.1%. Profit and revenue are moving roughly in step.

Cash flow — the router The P&L says what was earned; the cash-flow statement says what actually arrived. Operating cash flow (CFO) against profit is the cleanest lie detector in the accounts.

Over the last 3 fiscal years 92% of Safari Industries (India) Ltd's reported profit arrived as operating cash — the cash follows the profit. In FY26 that was ₹173 Cr of operating cash against ₹168 Cr of profit. After ₹102 Cr of capital spending, ₹71.0 Cr was left as free cash.

FY26: operating cash of ₹173 Cr against reported profit of ₹168 Cr, leaving free cash of ₹71.0 Cr after ₹102 Cr of capital spending. Across the last 3 fiscal years the conversion rate is 92% of profit.

Cash-flow readings here are annual — that is the resolution our series carries, so this section moves once a year.

Why conversion sits at 92%: the cash cycle tightened 82 days between FY21 and FY26 — cash that used to wait in the cycle now reaches the bank sooner.

Router verdict: the bigger cash user is investment — capital spending ran 2.5× depreciation over three years, so the next section's job is to check what that build-out is buying.

Where the cash goes Working capital is the cash tied up between paying suppliers and getting paid: debtor days (customers owe), inventory days (stock waits), and the cash conversion cycle (the whole loop, in days of sales).

Safari Industries (India) Ltd's cash conversion cycle runs 103 days in FY26, down from 185 days in FY21. Capital spending ran ₹455 Cr over the last 3 years. At FY26 sales of ₹2,047 Cr each day of that cycle holds about ₹5.6 Cr, so roughly ₹578 Cr sits inside the business at any moment.

FY26: debtors at 47 days, inventory at 116 days — roughly 3.8 months of stock waiting to sell; that is where the cash sits while it waits — for a full cycle of 103 days, tighter than FY21's 185.

The full loop: cash goes out to suppliers and production on day 0; stock waits 116 days to sell; customers pay about 47 days after that; and suppliers themselves are paid at 59 days — netting out to the 103-day cycle.

In money terms: at FY26 sales of ₹2,047 Cr, each day of the cycle holds about ₹5.6 Cr — so the 103-day loop keeps roughly ₹578 Cr sitting inside the business at any moment.

On the investment side: capital spending of ₹455 Cr over the last 3 fiscal years against ₹182 Cr of depreciation — the company is building well ahead of wear-and-tear. Capital work-in-progress stands at ₹1.0 Cr (FY26) — capacity paid for but not yet earning.

The synthesis: the cash is going into capacity, not disappearing into the cycle — the question becomes whether the new capacity earns.

Return on capital Return on capital employed (ROCE) is the profit the whole business earns on all the money in it — equity and debt together. It is the single best test of whether growth creates value or just size.

Safari Industries (India) Ltd earns a ROCE of 19% in FY26. That is up from a trough of −7% in FY21. Return on invested capital clears the cost of that capital by +4.3 percentage points, so growth here adds value rather than only size. The wiring behind it is 8.2% net margin on 1.42× asset turns.

FY26 ROCE is 19%, recovered from a FY21 trough of −7% — the full ladder below shows the fall and the climb, undoctored.

Why the return is what it is — the wiring (FY26): 8.2% net margin × 1.42× asset turns × 1.29× balance-sheet leverage ≈ 15.0% on equity. Margin does its share; leverage is modest — this is an earned return, not a borrowed one.

The capstone test — ROIC − WACC: 16.3% − 12.0% = a +4.3 pp spread. The 12.0% is a standing assumption for the cost of capital in India, not a per-stock estimate — read the sign and the size of the spread, not the decimals. Positive but thin — value creation with little room for error.

Debt Debt-to-equity says how much of the business is funded by borrowings. Low is the safe corner; the trend matters as much as the level.

Safari Industries (India) Ltd carries total debt of ₹117 Cr against shareholder equity of ₹1,115 Cr as of Mar 26, a debt-to-equity of 0.10 — effectively unlevered. On the annual view that ratio went from 0.19 in FY22 to 0.10 in FY26. The returns elsewhere on this page are therefore earned rather than borrowed.

Mar 26: total debt of ₹117 Cr against shareholder equity of ₹1,115 Cr — a debt-to-equity of 0.10. On the annual view, debt-to-equity went from 0.19 (FY22) to 0.10 (FY26). The returns on this page are earned, not borrowed.

Ownership Who owns the stock, quarter by quarter: promoters (the controlling owners), foreign and domestic institutions, and the public. Steady accumulation by people close to the numbers is a signal; a quiet register is also an answer.

Domestic institutions added 6.4 points of Safari Industries (India) Ltd over 8 quarters, the biggest move on the register. That takes domestic institutions to 28.3% of the company. Foreign institutions moved −2.1 points over the same window, to 10.6%. The register is read on the four disclosed classes only; nothing is inferred between filings.

The register over the last two years — Domestic institutions: +6.4 points over 8 quarters to 28.3%; Foreign institutions: −2.1 points over 8 quarters to 10.6%; Promoters: −1.0 points over 8 quarters to 44.7%.

Why the register moved: rotation — foreign institutions −2.1 points against domestic institutions +6.4 points over 8 quarters, with promoters −1.0 points — one class of institutions handing the register to the other, not a verdict change by the people closest to the numbers.

Safety line The Z-score estimates how far a company sits from balance-sheet distress — above roughly 3 is safe, below roughly 1.8 is the danger zone. It was built for manufacturers, so it is not applied to banks and lenders.

Safari Industries (India) Ltd: the Z-score is not available for this stock, so we say so rather than invent one. It is a distance-to-distress estimate from the balance sheet, not a forecast of failure. The debt, cash-flow and return sections above carry the balance-sheet evidence this page does hold, and each of them states its own reporting date.

The safety line in one sentence: the Z-score is not available for this stock, so we say so rather than invent one.

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