Power Grid Corporation of India Ltd

Price story Before the numbers, the tape. A stock price moves through four repeating seasons: a flat base (stage 1), an advance (2), a top (3), a decline (4). Where the price sits in that cycle frames everything below.

Power Grid Corporation of India Ltd trades at ₹266, in a downtrend and 3 weeks into that stage. That is −7.7% against its own 200-day average. It sits at 22% of a 52-week range of ₹251 to ₹318. On relative strength it is currently behind the NIFTY 500 on a trailing-13-week view (18 weeks and counting).

Today the stock is in a downtrend — week 3 of stage 4, confirmed. At ₹266 it trades −7.7% versus its 200-day average and sits at 22% of its 52-week range (₹251–₹318).

Against the market, two honest reads. Cumulative: over the last 10.5 years the stock moved +254% while the NIFTY 500 moved +284% — behind the index over the full window. Recent form: on a trailing-13-week view the stock is currently behind (18 weeks and counting; last ahead the week of 2026-05-22) — the ribbon below is that same metric, week by week.

What would end the trend, mechanically: two Friday closes in a row below the 200-day line. That is the exit rule — no debates.

Story check

Power Grid Corporation of India Ltd's story is not scored yet against the markers our research file set on 31 May 2026. Where it sits in its own cycle: NEAR_PEAK.

Our read, 31 May 2026. A regulated utility whose FY26 capex delivery of ₹39,500 Cr (beat ₹35,000 Cr guide) is the leading indicator of earnings inflection — but ₹1.7L Cr works-in-hand converts to revenue only as capitalization executes over 2-3 years.

From the numbers. PE 18.1x at 79th percentile of 10-year history (down from 83rd in prior cycle read). Approaching single observed cycle peak 20.2x (Mar 2019) -- currently at ~90% of peak PE. FII shareholding trended from 33.14% (Jun…

From the price. Price stage 4, week 3 — below its 200-day line, relative strength falling.

From the research. A regulated utility whose FY26 capex delivery of ₹39,500 Cr (beat ₹35,000 Cr guide) is the leading indicator of earnings inflection — but ₹1.7L Cr works-in-hand converts to revenue only as capitalization executes over…

🚨 Where they disagree. PE 18.1x at 79th percentile of 10-year history (down from 83rd in prior cycle read). Approaching single observed cycle peak 20.2x (Mar 2019) -- currently at ~90% of peak PE. FII shareholding trended from 33.14% (Jun 2023) to 28.73% (Jun 2024), consistent institutional trimming. Price Rs291 compressed from Rs306 prior timeline -- market digesting FY28 capex guide recalibration and TBCB market share miss. Return from here requires PAT growth delivery, not multiple expansion.

What is proven. A regulated utility whose FY26 capex delivery of ₹39,500 Cr (beat ₹35,000 Cr guide) is the leading indicator of earnings inflection — but ₹1.7L Cr works-in-hand converts to revenue only as capitalization executes over 2-3 years.

What is not proven yet. FY26 capitalization guide cut from ₹23,000-25,000 Cr (May 2025) to ₹20,000 Cr (Nov 2025) before finishing ₹28,206 Cr; pattern of conservative mid-year cuts followed by beats creates forecast opacity.

The test written in advance. Capitalization lag — CWIP-to-revenue conversion slower than guided — Capitalization lag — CWIP-to-revenue conversion slower than guided Q1 FY27 capitalization disclosed in quarterly results vs ₹7,500 Cr run-rate required for FY27 guide by the next result.

The test written in advance. TBCB market share erosion — 44% actual vs 50-60% stated through Q3 FY26 — TBCB market share erosion — 44% actual vs 50-60% stated through Q3 FY26 by the next result.

The test written in advance. PE cycle at 79th percentile — return depends on PAT delivery, not multiple expansion — PE cycle at 79th percentile — return depends on PAT delivery, not multiple expansion by the next result.

What the company does. FY26 capex Rs39,500 Cr exceeded revised guidance of Rs35,000 Cr; FY27 guided Rs37,000 Cr with FY28 range Rs40,000-45,000 Cr -- materially cut from Rs82,000+ Cr declared in Mar 2026. Works in hand ₹1.7L Cr (TBCB ₹1.37L Cr, 81%) + FY27 capitalization guide ₹30,000 Cr provides 3-4 year revenue visibility; CERC 15.5% RoE on each capitalized rupee is the mechanical profit driver. TBCB market share fell from 57.34% (FY25,) to 44% (FY26,); management guidance of 50-60% through Feb-Mar 2026 was contradicted by May 2026 results -- primary new consistency flag requiring watch.

Lever 6 · Order-book wins — BUILDING. FY26 capex ₹39,500 Cr beat ₹35,000 Cr guide; FY27 guided ₹37,000 Cr; FY28 ₹40,000-45,000 Cr (revised down from ₹82,000+ Cr Mar 2026). What proves it keeps working: Capex Supercycle Delivery (₹35k→₹37k→₹40-45k Cr). It stops working if Q1 FY27 capitalization disclosed in quarterly results vs ₹7,500 Cr run-rate required for FY27 guide.

Lever 14 · A bigger market to sell into — BUILDING. CEA ₹9.1 trillion 2035 requirement for 786 GW RE; 22 HVDC schemes in pipeline totaling 127 GW; POWERGRID targets 60% capture = ₹6L Cr over 10 years. What proves it keeps working: TAM Expansion (₹9.1 trillion 2035 RE evacuation mandate). It stops working if Q1 FY27 capitalization disclosed in quarterly results vs ₹7,500 Cr run-rate required for FY27 guide.

Lever 3 · Management change — BUILDING. Market-rate compensation framework (200% tower area, 30-60% corridor) now in 2+ states; government support timelines issued; AI-based defect detection and mobile GIS deployed to accelerate execution. What proves it keeps working: RoW Bottleneck Operationally Resolved. It stops working if Q1 FY27 capitalization disclosed in quarterly results vs ₹7,500 Cr run-rate required for FY27 guide.

Lever 9 · Buyback — BUILDING. Telecom FY26 ₹1,195 Cr (+6% YoY); consultancy FY26 ₹1,755 Cr (+46% YoY); combined ~6% of revenue growing at double digits. What proves it keeps working: Non-Transmission Revenue Diversification (Telecom + Consultancy). It stops working if Q1 FY27 capitalization disclosed in quarterly results vs ₹7,500 Cr run-rate required for FY27 guide.

Sources: our stock research file (31 May 2026) · quarterly results through Jun 26 · the company’s own earnings calls. The story check is re-scored every results season; the record below never changes.

Revenue Revenue is the top line: everything the company billed its customers in the period.

Power Grid Corporation of India Ltd reported ₹11,497 Cr of revenue in the Jun 26 quarter, +2.7% year on year. Over 10 years it has compounded at 8.5% a year. The last full year, FY26, came in at ₹46,733 Cr. The last four reported quarters add to ₹47,034 Cr.

Why this happened. Core driver of POWERGRID earnings trajectory. Each capitalized rupee earns CERC-regulated 15.5% RoE. FY26 capex Rs39,500 Cr added 4,765 circuit km and 72,055 MVA. Capitalization Rs28,206 Cr exceeded guide. FY27 capex Rs37,000 Cr; FY28 Rs40,000-45,000 Cr -- lower than FY28 Rs82,000+ Cr declared in Mar 2026 but still a step up. FY27 capitalization guide Rs30,000 Cr (+6% vs FY26 actuals) is the immediate conversion metric.

FY26 revenue came in at ₹46,733 Cr (+2.1% on the year), capping 10 years at 8.5% compound. The latest quarter (Jun 26) printed ₹11,497 Cr, +2.7% year on year.

Pace check: the last four quarters averaged +2.5% growth against the decade's 8.5% — the current year is running slower than its own long-run rate.

Acceleration check: trailing-twelve-month revenue grew +2.3% over the last 4 quarters against +1.3%/yr over the last 8 — stabilising; TTM profit +3.0% vs +0.6%/yr — stabilising.

Operating margin Operating margin is what is left of every ₹100 of sales after running the business, before interest and tax. It is the cleanest read on pricing power and cost control.

Power Grid Corporation of India Ltd's operating margin is 82.0% in the Jun 26 quarter, +1.0 percentage points against the same quarter a year ago. Across 13 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged 70.0% to 88.0%. The current quarter sits inside that band.

The latest quarter's operating margin is 82.0%, +1.0 pp against the same quarter a year ago. Across 13 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged 70.0%–88.0%.

Why the margin moved: operating margin went +0.7 pp year on year while gross margin went +0.0 pp — the gain came mostly below the gross line: operating leverage, with costs spread over a bigger revenue base.

Net profit Net profit is what survives every cost, interest and tax — the number EPS, dividends and book value all grow from.

Power Grid Corporation of India Ltd earned ₹3,598 Cr of net profit in the Jun 26 quarter, −0.9% year on year. Full-year FY26 profit was ₹15,928 Cr. The 10-year compound rate is 10.3%. That is 31.3% of the quarter's revenue. The same quarter a year earlier earned ₹3,631 Cr.

Jun 26 profit was ₹3,598 Cr, −0.9% year on year. On the full year, FY26 printed ₹15,928 Cr (+2.6%), and the 10-year compound rate is 10.3%.

🚨 Why profit moved: revenue contributed +2.7% and the margin +1.0 pp — the quarter was revenue-led, with the margin roughly flat.

Pace comparison, last four quarters: profit +2.8% vs revenue +2.5%. Profit and revenue are moving roughly in step.

Cash flow — the router The P&L says what was earned; the cash-flow statement says what actually arrived. Operating cash flow (CFO) against profit is the cleanest lie detector in the accounts.

Over the last 3 fiscal years 243% of Power Grid Corporation of India Ltd's reported profit arrived as operating cash — the cash follows the profit. In FY26 that was ₹40,935 Cr of operating cash against ₹15,928 Cr of profit. After ₹27,403 Cr of capital spending, ₹13,532 Cr was left as free cash.

FY26: operating cash of ₹40,935 Cr against reported profit of ₹15,928 Cr, leaving free cash of ₹13,532 Cr after ₹27,403 Cr of capital spending. Across the last 3 fiscal years the conversion rate is 243% of profit.

Cash-flow readings here are annual — that is the resolution our series carries, so this section moves once a year.

Why conversion sits at 243%: the cash cycle stretched 12 days between FY21 and FY26 — more of each rupee of profit waits inside the cycle before arriving.

Router verdict: the bigger cash user is investment — capital spending ran 1.5× depreciation over three years, so the next section's job is to check what that build-out is buying.

Where the cash goes Working capital is the cash tied up between paying suppliers and getting paid: debtor days (customers owe), inventory days (stock waits), and the cash conversion cycle (the whole loop, in days of sales).

Power Grid Corporation of India Ltd's cash conversion cycle runs 91 days in FY26, up from 79 days in FY21. Capital spending ran ₹60,098 Cr over the last 3 years. At FY26 sales of ₹46,733 Cr each day of that cycle holds about ₹128 Cr, so roughly ₹11,651 Cr sits inside the business at any moment.

FY26: debtors at 91 days (an asset-light business — no inventory to speak of) — for a full cycle of 91 days, looser than FY21's 79.

In money terms: at FY26 sales of ₹46,733 Cr, each day of the cycle holds about ₹128 Cr — so the 91-day loop keeps roughly ₹11,651 Cr sitting inside the business at any moment.

On the investment side: capital spending of ₹60,098 Cr over the last 3 fiscal years against ₹39,029 Cr of depreciation — the company is building well ahead of wear-and-tear. Capital work-in-progress stands at ₹43,747 Cr (FY26) — capacity paid for but not yet earning.

The synthesis: the cash is going into capacity, not disappearing into the cycle — the question becomes whether the new capacity earns.

Return on capital Return on capital employed (ROCE) is the profit the whole business earns on all the money in it — equity and debt together. It is the single best test of whether growth creates value or just size.

Power Grid Corporation of India Ltd earns a ROCE of 9% in FY26. That is up from a trough of 8% in FY15. Return on invested capital clears the cost of that capital by −5.0 percentage points, so growth here is not yet paying for the capital it uses.

FY26 ROCE is 9%, recovered from a FY15 trough of 8% — the full ladder below shows the fall and the climb, undoctored.

🚨 Why the return is what it is — the wiring (FY26): 34.1% net margin × 0.16× asset turns × 2.93× balance-sheet leverage ≈ 16.0% on equity. Margin is doing the heavy lifting; leverage is a meaningful part of the equation.

The capstone test — ROIC − WACC: 7.0% − 12.0% = a −5.0 pp spread. The 12.0% is a standing assumption for the cost of capital in India, not a per-stock estimate — read the sign and the size of the spread, not the decimals. Negative — growth at these returns destroys value until the returns recover.

Debt Debt-to-equity says how much of the business is funded by borrowings. Low is the safe corner; the trend matters as much as the level.

Power Grid Corporation of India Ltd carries total debt of ₹1,51,558 Cr against shareholder equity of ₹1,00,494 Cr as of Jun 26, a debt-to-equity of 1.51. On the annual view that ratio went from 1.81 in FY22 to 1.51 in FY26. Read the returns elsewhere on this page with that leverage in mind.

Jun 26: total debt of ₹1,51,558 Cr against shareholder equity of ₹1,00,494 Cr — a debt-to-equity of 1.51. On the annual view, debt-to-equity went from 1.81 (FY22) to 1.51 (FY26). Read the returns on this page with that leverage in mind.

Ownership Who owns the stock, quarter by quarter: promoters (the controlling owners), foreign and domestic institutions, and the public. Steady accumulation by people close to the numbers is a signal; a quiet register is also an answer.

Foreign institutions cut 4.4 points of Power Grid Corporation of India Ltd over 8 quarters, the biggest move on the register. That takes foreign institutions to 24.3% of the company. Domestic institutions moved +4.3 points over the same window, to 20.6%. The register is read on the four disclosed classes only; nothing is inferred between filings.

Why this happened. RoW was primary execution bottleneck for 3+ years. March 2025 GoI guidelines shifted to market rates with three-valuer methodology. Delhi and Haryana adopted state guidelines June-July 2025. FY26 capitalization beat (Rs28,206 Cr vs Rs20,000 Cr November guide) is partial validation. AI-based defect detection, mobile GIS units (132/220 kV operational), and insulated cross-arm innovation (reduces RoW width by 20%) reduce field execution friction. 17 intra-state TBCB projects under bidding with improved payment security via regulatory amendment.

The register over the last two years — Foreign institutions: −4.4 points over 8 quarters to 24.3%; Domestic institutions: +4.3 points over 8 quarters to 20.6%; Promoters: +0.0 points over 8 quarters to 51.3%.

Why the register moved: rotation — foreign institutions −4.4 points against domestic institutions +4.3 points over 8 quarters, with promoters holding steady — one class of institutions handing the register to the other, not a verdict change by the people closest to the numbers.

Safety line The Z-score estimates how far a company sits from balance-sheet distress — above roughly 3 is safe, below roughly 1.8 is the danger zone. It was built for manufacturers, so it is not applied to banks and lenders.

Power Grid Corporation of India Ltd: the Z-score is not available for this stock, so we say so rather than invent one. It is a distance-to-distress estimate from the balance sheet, not a forecast of failure. The debt, cash-flow and return sections above carry the balance-sheet evidence this page does hold, and each of them states its own reporting date.

The safety line in one sentence: the Z-score is not available for this stock, so we say so rather than invent one.

Valuation P/E is the price of ₹1 of annual profit: how many rupees the market pays for each rupee the company earns in a year.

Power Grid Corporation of India Ltd trades at 15.6× P/E, mid-range by its own standards (56th percentile). Its long-run median P/E is 14.6×, measured across 10.5 years of weekly readings. This places the multiple against the stock’s own record, and says nothing about what the business is worth.

Today's P/E of 15.6× is mid-range by its own standards (56th percentile), against a long-run median of 14.6× measured over 10.5 years of weekly readings. This is a comparison against the stock's own history — not a claim about what it is worth.

Why the multiple sits where it does: over the past year annual EPS moved +2.6% against a −7.8% price move — earnings outran the price, pushing the multiple DOWN its own range.

The price move, decomposed: over 5y, of the +13.9%/yr price move, ~+3.2%/yr came from earnings growth and ~+10.7 pp from the multiple (expanding); over 10y, of the +10.3%/yr price move, ~+12.0%/yr came from earnings growth and ~−1.7 pp from the multiple (compressing). The split is the honest approximate (price return minus earnings growth); it makes the rally itself visible instead of hiding it behind the percentile.

Put together: the multiple is unremarkable against its own past, so the story rests on the earnings line underneath it, not the multiple.

Stage: Mixed Every business sits somewhere on a fundamental arc, and this page names the spot before anything else. The last twelve quarters of revenue, profit and EPS growth — plus the return the business earns on its capital — are read as curves: Deteriorating (the curves are falling), Turning around (a trough has just formed and the last few quarters lift off it), Improving (the climb off the trough is sustained), Consistent (steadily positive with healthy returns), Topping out (still high but decelerating from the peak). When the curves genuinely disagree the read is Mixed; too little history is No read. CAGR (compound annual growth rate) is the smooth yearly pace that turns the starting value into the latest one — the fairest way to compare growth across different time spans. Read the columns together: if the 1-year number towers over the 10-year, recent growth is running hotter than the long-run trend. A dash means that window is not held, or the base year was a loss (where a growth rate is not meaningful).

Power Grid Corporation of India Ltd reads as mixed on its fundamental arc. Mixed — no clean majority across the growth curves, ROCE slipping at 9.9% — the per-curve reads carry the story. The read is built from 12 quarters across 4 curves, on full evidence.

Why it matters: when the curves disagree, the per-curve reads above matter more than any single verdict.

4-Factor Sector Score

25.4/100 — rank 3 of 3 in Power - Transmission/Equipment · 97% evidence confidence

Power Grid Corporation of India Ltd scores 25.4 out of 100 against the 3 companies it is compared with in Power - Transmission/Equipment, ranking 3. Balanced evidence: keep at normal research priority and require another comparable period before raising conviction.

The four contributions add to the total exactly: 9.3 + 8.9 + 7.2 + 0 = 25.4. This is the SAME number shown on the sector comparison — it is computed once, for the whole peer set, and read here.

What would change it: The read weakens if profit growth turns negative or margin improvement reverses while sector-relative strength deteriorates.

Said versus delivered

What Power Grid Corporation of India Ltd's management promised, set against what actually arrived — 4 tracked promises on the record. Read straight from the company’s own earnings calls. A promise that slipped stays on this page after it is met.

TBCB Market Share Erosion · 18 May 2026. Management consistently claimed a TBCB market share between 50% and 60% in the Feb 2026 and Mar 2026 calls, asserting they were maintaining this position as late as one week before the fiscal year-end. However, the May 2026 call reported an actual FY26 market share of only 44%, representing a material discrepancy compared to the maintenance levels stated in the prior months.

Works in Hand Reporting Discrepancy · 18 May 2026. In the Mar 2026 call, management reported total works in hand of 1.48 lakh crore, explicitly stating this included capital work in progress and excluded the Pang-Kaithal project. However, the May 2026 call revised this figure to 1.7 lakh crore for the end of the same fiscal year (FY26) without a clear explanation for the 22,000 crore valuation increase in the final phase of the year.

FY28 Capex Guidance Explosion · 23 March 2026. In the February 2026 call, management explicitly guided for FY28 Capex of ₹45,000 crores. However, just one month later in the March 2026 call, they abruptly raised this forecast to over ₹82,000 crores, a near-doubling of the estimate without providing a clear bridge for such a massive revision in such a short window. Earlier call (Feb 2026): “FY”. Later call (Mar 2026): “For FY27, it will reach 45,000 crores, and by FY28, it is projected to be more than 82,000 crores.”

Leh-Kaithal Technology Pivot Uncertainty · 23 March 2026. In November 2025, management stated that the Leh-Kaithal project would shift from HVDC to AC because HVDC was deemed not feasible and too expensive (₹42,000 Cr). By March 2026, the clear path to AC appears to have regressed, with management stating discussions are still ongoing regarding whether it will remain HVDC or change to AC. Earlier call (Nov 2025): “we came to a conclusion that HVDC project may not be feasible... Government of India is considering this project to be replaced by AC project... AC is another option which we are considering”. Later call (Mar 2026): “excluded the Leh-Kaithal project from that 148,000 crore figure for now due to ongoing discussions regarding whether it will remain HVDC or change to an AC network.”

Every quote above is taken word for word from the company’s own earnings calls.

Frequently asked questions