NMDC Ltd

Price story Before the numbers, the tape. A stock price moves through four repeating seasons: a flat base (stage 1), an advance (2), a top (3), a decline (4). Where the price sits in that cycle frames everything below.

NMDC Ltd trades at ₹84.4, in a confirmed uptrend and 56 weeks into that stage. That is +2.0% against its own 200-day average. It sits at 51% of a 52-week range of ₹74 to ₹95. On relative strength it is currently behind the NIFTY 500 on a trailing-13-week view (11 weeks and counting).

Today the stock is in a confirmed uptrend — week 56 of stage 2, confirmed. At ₹84.4 it trades +2.0% versus its 200-day average and sits at 51% of its 52-week range (₹74–₹95).

Against the market, two honest reads. Cumulative: over the last 10.5 years the stock moved +309% while the NIFTY 500 moved +284% — ahead of the index over the full window. Recent form: on a trailing-13-week view the stock is currently behind (11 weeks and counting; last ahead the week of 2026-06-17) — the ribbon below is that same metric, week by week.

What would end the trend, mechanically: two Friday closes in a row below the 200-day line. That is the exit rule — no debates.

Valuation P/E is the price of ₹1 of annual profit: how many rupees the market pays for each rupee the company earns in a year.

NMDC Ltd trades at 9.9× P/E, mid-range by its own standards (62nd percentile). Its long-run median P/E is 8.7×, measured across 10.5 years of weekly readings. This places the multiple against the stock’s own record, and says nothing about what the business is worth.

Today's P/E of 9.9× is mid-range by its own standards (62nd percentile), against a long-run median of 8.7× measured over 10.5 years of weekly readings. This is a comparison against the stock's own history — not a claim about what it is worth.

Why the multiple sits where it does: over the past year annual EPS moved +14.0% against a +21.6% price move — the price outran earnings, pushing the multiple UP its own range.

The price move, decomposed: over 5y, of the +13.7%/yr price move, ~−3.3%/yr came from earnings growth and ~+17.0 pp from the multiple (expanding); over 10y, of the +12.4%/yr price move, ~+4.6%/yr came from earnings growth and ~+7.8 pp from the multiple (expanding). The split is the honest approximate (price return minus earnings growth); it makes the rally itself visible instead of hiding it behind the percentile.

Put together: the multiple is unremarkable against its own past, so the story rests on the earnings line underneath it, not the multiple.

Stage: Consistent Every business sits somewhere on a fundamental arc, and this page names the spot before anything else. The last twelve quarters of revenue, profit and EPS growth — plus the return the business earns on its capital — are read as curves: Deteriorating (the curves are falling), Turning around (a trough has just formed and the last few quarters lift off it), Improving (the climb off the trough is sustained), Consistent (steadily positive with healthy returns), Topping out (still high but decelerating from the peak). When the curves genuinely disagree the read is Mixed; too little history is No read. CAGR (compound annual growth rate) is the smooth yearly pace that turns the starting value into the latest one — the fairest way to compare growth across different time spans. Read the columns together: if the 1-year number towers over the 10-year, recent growth is running hotter than the long-run trend. A dash means that window is not held, or the base year was a loss (where a growth rate is not meaningful).

NMDC Ltd reads as consistent on its fundamental arc. Consistent — revenue, profit and EPS growth have stayed positive through the window, with ROCE at 30.4% and holding. The read is built from 12 quarters across 4 curves, on full evidence.

Why it matters: steady curves with healthy returns are the compounding setup — the risk is the price, not the business.

4-Factor Sector Score

53.9/100 — rank 5 of 6 in Mining/Minerals - Iron Ore · 100% evidence confidence

NMDC Ltd scores 53.9 out of 100 against the 6 companies it is compared with in Mining/Minerals - Iron Ore, ranking 5. Balanced evidence: keep at normal research priority and require another comparable period before raising conviction.

The four contributions add to the total exactly: 15.4 + 17.9 + 9 + 11.6 = 53.9. This is the SAME number shown on the sector comparison — it is computed once, for the whole peer set, and read here.

What would change it: The read weakens if profit growth turns negative or margin improvement reverses while sector-relative strength deteriorates.

Revenue Revenue is the top line: everything the company billed its customers in the period.

NMDC Ltd reported ₹6,795 Cr of revenue in the Jun 26 quarter, +0.8% year on year. That is the 12th straight quarter of year-on-year growth. Over 10 years it has compounded at 17.4% a year. The last full year, FY26, came in at ₹32,071 Cr. The last four reported quarters add to ₹32,127 Cr.

FY26 revenue came in at ₹32,071 Cr (+34.2% on the year), capping 10 years at 17.4% compound. The latest quarter (Jun 26) printed ₹6,795 Cr, +0.8% year on year — the 12th consecutive quarter of year-over-year growth.

Pace check: the last four quarters averaged +27.1% growth against the decade's 17.4% — the current year is running faster than its own long-run rate.

Acceleration check: trailing-twelve-month revenue grew +27.3% over the last 4 quarters against +22.7%/yr over the last 8 — accelerating; TTM profit +14.2% vs +12.6%/yr — stabilising.

Operating margin Operating margin is what is left of every ₹100 of sales after running the business, before interest and tax. It is the cleanest read on pricing power and cost control.

NMDC Ltd's operating margin is 36.0% in the Jun 26 quarter, −1.0 percentage points against the same quarter a year ago. Across 13 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged 29.0% to 64.0%. The current quarter sits inside that band.

The latest quarter's operating margin is 36.0%, −1.0 pp against the same quarter a year ago. Across 13 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged 29.0%–64.0%.

🚨 Why the margin moved: operating margin went −0.5 pp year on year while gross margin went +12.6 pp — the loss came mostly from the gross line: input costs and pricing.

Net profit Net profit is what survives every cost, interest and tax — the number EPS, dividends and book value all grow from.

NMDC Ltd earned ₹1,976 Cr of net profit in the Jun 26 quarter, +0.4% year on year. It is the 2nd consecutive quarter of growth. Full-year FY26 profit was ₹7,450 Cr. The 10-year compound rate is 11.3%. That is 29.1% of the quarter's revenue. The same quarter a year earlier earned ₹1,968 Cr.

Jun 26 profit was ₹1,976 Cr, +0.4% year on year — the 2nd consecutive quarter of growth. On the full year, FY26 printed ₹7,450 Cr (+14.3%), and the 10-year compound rate is 11.3%.

Why profit moved: revenue contributed +0.8% and the margin −1.0 pp — the quarter was revenue-led, with the margin roughly flat.

Pace comparison, last four quarters: profit +18.0% vs revenue +27.1%. Profit is growing slower than sales — costs are eating the growth before it reaches the bottom line.

Cash flow — the router The P&L says what was earned; the cash-flow statement says what actually arrived. Operating cash flow (CFO) against profit is the cleanest lie detector in the accounts.

Over the last 3 fiscal years 73% of NMDC Ltd's reported profit arrived as operating cash — most of the profit is real cash. In FY26 that was ₹4,996 Cr of operating cash against ₹7,450 Cr of profit. After ₹3,307 Cr of capital spending, ₹1,689 Cr was left as free cash.

FY26: operating cash of ₹4,996 Cr against reported profit of ₹7,450 Cr, leaving free cash of ₹1,689 Cr after ₹3,307 Cr of capital spending. Across the last 3 fiscal years the conversion rate is 73% of profit.

Cash-flow readings here are annual — that is the resolution our series carries, so this section moves once a year.

Why conversion sits at 73%: the cash cycle stretched 196 days between FY21 and FY26 — more of each rupee of profit waits inside the cycle before arriving.

Router verdict: conversion is below par and the cash cycle has stretched 196 days — the next section's job is to find where the cash is stuck.

Where the cash goes Working capital is the cash tied up between paying suppliers and getting paid: debtor days (customers owe), inventory days (stock waits), and the cash conversion cycle (the whole loop, in days of sales).

NMDC Ltd's cash conversion cycle runs 247 days in FY26, up from 51 days in FY21. Capital spending ran ₹8,656 Cr over the last 3 years. At FY26 sales of ₹32,071 Cr each day of that cycle holds about ₹87.9 Cr, so roughly ₹21,703 Cr sits inside the business at any moment.

FY26: debtors at 105 days, inventory at 170 days — roughly 5.6 months of stock waiting to sell; that is where the cash sits while it waits — for a full cycle of 247 days, looser than FY21's 51.

The full loop: cash goes out to suppliers and production on day 0; stock waits 170 days to sell; customers pay about 105 days after that; and suppliers themselves are paid at 27 days — netting out to the 247-day cycle.

In money terms: at FY26 sales of ₹32,071 Cr, each day of the cycle holds about ₹87.9 Cr — so the 247-day loop keeps roughly ₹21,703 Cr sitting inside the business at any moment.

On the investment side: capital spending of ₹8,656 Cr over the last 3 fiscal years against ₹1,248 Cr of depreciation — the company is building well ahead of wear-and-tear. Capital work-in-progress stands at ₹6,749 Cr (FY26) — capacity paid for but not yet earning.

The synthesis: the working-capital loop is the cash sink the router flagged — watch the cycle, not the P&L.

Return on capital Return on capital employed (ROCE) is the profit the whole business earns on all the money in it — equity and debt together. It is the single best test of whether growth creates value or just size.

NMDC Ltd earns a ROCE of 28% in FY26. That is up from a trough of 14% in FY16. Return on invested capital clears the cost of that capital by +10.1 percentage points, so growth here adds value rather than only size. The wiring behind it is 23.2% net margin on 0.66× asset turns.

FY26 ROCE is 28%, recovered from a FY16 trough of 14% — the full ladder below shows the fall and the climb, undoctored.

Why the return is what it is — the wiring (FY26): 23.2% net margin × 0.66× asset turns × 1.42× balance-sheet leverage ≈ 21.7% on equity. Margin is doing the heavy lifting; leverage is modest — this is an earned return, not a borrowed one.

The capstone test — ROIC − WACC: 22.1% − 12.0% = a +10.1 pp spread. The 12.0% is a standing assumption for the cost of capital in India, not a per-stock estimate — read the sign and the size of the spread, not the decimals. A spread this wide means every rupee reinvested creates more than a rupee of value — the engine compounds.

Debt Debt-to-equity says how much of the business is funded by borrowings. Low is the safe corner; the trend matters as much as the level.

NMDC Ltd carries total debt of ₹6,407 Cr against shareholder equity of ₹34,076 Cr as of Mar 26, a debt-to-equity of 0.19 — effectively unlevered. On the annual view that ratio went from 0.10 in FY22 to 0.19 in FY26. The returns elsewhere on this page are therefore earned rather than borrowed.

Mar 26: total debt of ₹6,407 Cr against shareholder equity of ₹34,076 Cr — a debt-to-equity of 0.19. On the annual view, debt-to-equity went from 0.10 (FY22) to 0.19 (FY26). The returns on this page are earned, not borrowed.

Ownership Who owns the stock, quarter by quarter: promoters (the controlling owners), foreign and domestic institutions, and the public. Steady accumulation by people close to the numbers is a signal; a quiet register is also an answer.

No holder of NMDC Ltd moved a full percentage point over the last two years — the register is quiet. Domestic institutions moved −0.5 points over the same window, to 13.8%. The register is read on the four disclosed classes only; nothing is inferred between filings.

The register over the last two years — Foreign institutions: +0.8 points over 8 quarters to 13.6%; Domestic institutions: −0.5 points over 8 quarters to 13.8%; Promoters: +0.0 points over 8 quarters to 60.8%.

Safety line The Z-score estimates how far a company sits from balance-sheet distress — above roughly 3 is safe, below roughly 1.8 is the danger zone. It was built for manufacturers, so it is not applied to banks and lenders.

NMDC Ltd: the Z-score is not available for this stock, so we say so rather than invent one. It is a distance-to-distress estimate from the balance sheet, not a forecast of failure. The debt, cash-flow and return sections above carry the balance-sheet evidence this page does hold, and each of them states its own reporting date.

The safety line in one sentence: the Z-score is not available for this stock, so we say so rather than invent one.

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