Nilkamal Ltd

Price story Before the numbers, the tape. A stock price moves through four repeating seasons: a flat base (stage 1), an advance (2), a top (3), a decline (4). Where the price sits in that cycle frames everything below.

Nilkamal Ltd trades at ₹1,798, in a downtrend and 52 weeks into that stage. That is +27.3% against its own 200-day average. It sits at 100% of a 52-week range of ₹1,127 to ₹1,798. On relative strength it has been ahead of the NIFTY 500 on a trailing-13-week view for 4 straight weeks.

Today the stock is in a downtrend — week 52 of stage 4, confirmed. At ₹1,798 it trades +27.3% versus its 200-day average and sits at 100% of its 52-week range (₹1,127–₹1,798).

Against the market, two honest reads. Cumulative: over the last 10.4 years the stock moved +63% while the NIFTY 500 moved +276% — behind the index over the full window. Recent form: on a trailing-13-week view the stock has been ahead for 4 straight weeks — the ribbon below is that same metric, week by week.

What would end the trend, mechanically: two Friday closes in a row below the 200-day line. That is the exit rule — no debates.

Valuation P/E is the price of ₹1 of annual profit: how many rupees the market pays for each rupee the company earns in a year.

Nilkamal Ltd trades at 19.9× P/E, near the bottom of its own range — cheaper only 34% of the time. Its long-run median P/E is 22.8×, measured across 10.4 years of weekly readings. This places the multiple against the stock’s own record, and says nothing about what the business is worth.

Today's P/E of 19.9× is near the bottom of its own range — cheaper only 34% of the time, against a long-run median of 22.8× measured over 10.4 years of weekly readings. This is a comparison against the stock's own history — not a claim about what it is worth.

Why the multiple sits where it does: over the past year annual EPS moved +8.6% against a +10.7% price move — the price outran earnings, pushing the multiple UP its own range.

The price move, decomposed: over 5y, of the −7.3%/yr price move, ~+2.2%/yr came from earnings growth and ~−9.5 pp from the multiple (compressing); over 10y, of the +3.5%/yr price move, ~+0.9%/yr came from earnings growth and ~+2.6 pp from the multiple (expanding). The split is the honest approximate (price return minus earnings growth); it makes the rally itself visible instead of hiding it behind the percentile.

Put together: the multiple is low against its own past, so the story rests on the earnings line underneath it, not the multiple.

A quarterly PEG curve, which only the second data source carries, is not drawn on this page: its two data sources do not share enough overlapping reported history to be compared. A figure nobody could check is not used to price growth — the gap is a decision, not missing data.

Stage: Improving Every business sits somewhere on a fundamental arc, and this page names the spot before anything else. The last twelve quarters of revenue, profit and EPS growth — plus the return the business earns on its capital — are read as curves: Deteriorating (the curves are falling), Turning around (a trough has just formed and the last few quarters lift off it), Improving (the climb off the trough is sustained), Consistent (steadily positive with healthy returns), Topping out (still high but decelerating from the peak). When the curves genuinely disagree the read is Mixed; too little history is No read. CAGR (compound annual growth rate) is the smooth yearly pace that turns the starting value into the latest one — the fairest way to compare growth across different time spans. Read the columns together: if the 1-year number towers over the 10-year, recent growth is running hotter than the long-run trend. A dash means that window is not held, or the base year was a loss (where a growth rate is not meaningful).

Nilkamal Ltd reads as improving on its fundamental arc. Improving — profit growth bottomed 6 quarters ago at −15.9% and has held its recovery at +20.2%, ROCE holding at 11.0%. The read is built from 8 quarters across 4 curves, on partial evidence.

Why it matters: a sustained climb off the trough is the setup this page is built to catch — the question moves to what you pay for it.

Return readings here are annual, not quarterly — read as level and direction only; they can confirm the growth curves but never drive the stage on their own.

A partial read: at least one curve is short, or the returns curve is not the computed quarterly series — hold the stage word a little more loosely.

4-Factor Sector Score

59.7/100 — rank 3 of 7 in Plastics - Plastic & Plastic Products · 87% evidence confidence

Nilkamal Ltd scores 59.7 out of 100 against the 7 companies it is compared with in Plastics - Plastic & Plastic Products, ranking 3. Balanced evidence: keep at normal research priority and require another comparable period before raising conviction.

The four contributions add to the total exactly: 20.7 + 9 + 13.6 + 16.4 = 59.7. This is the SAME number shown on the sector comparison — it is computed once, for the whole peer set, and read here.

What would change it: The read weakens if profit growth turns negative or margin improvement reverses while sector-relative strength deteriorates.

Revenue Revenue is the top line: everything the company billed its customers in the period.

Nilkamal Ltd reported ₹820 Cr of revenue in the Jun 26 quarter, −7.1% year on year. Over 10 years it has compounded at 7.0% a year. The last full year, FY26, came in at ₹3,778 Cr. The last four reported quarters add to ₹3,715 Cr.

FY26 revenue came in at ₹3,778 Cr (+14.0% on the year), capping 10 years at 7.0% compound. The latest quarter (Jun 26) printed ₹820 Cr, −7.1% year on year.

Pace check: the last four quarters averaged +7.8% growth against the decade's 7.0% — the current year is running in line with its own long-run rate.

Acceleration check: trailing-twelve-month revenue grew +7.6% over the last 4 quarters against +8.5%/yr over the last 8 — stabilising; TTM profit +20.2% vs +7.6%/yr — accelerating.

Operating margin Operating margin is what is left of every ₹100 of sales after running the business, before interest and tax. It is the cleanest read on pricing power and cost control.

Nilkamal Ltd's operating margin is 9.0% in the Jun 26 quarter, +2.0 percentage points against the same quarter a year ago. Across 13 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged 8.0% to 13.0%. The current quarter sits inside that band.

The latest quarter's operating margin is 9.0%, +2.0 pp against the same quarter a year ago. Across 13 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged 8.0%–13.0%.

Why the margin moved: operating margin went +2.5 pp year on year while gross margin went +3.0 pp — the gain came mostly from the gross line: input costs and pricing.

Net profit Net profit is what survives every cost, interest and tax — the number EPS, dividends and book value all grow from.

Nilkamal Ltd earned ₹24.0 Cr of net profit in the Jun 26 quarter, +60.0% year on year. It is the 4th consecutive quarter of growth. Full-year FY26 profit was ₹116 Cr. The 10-year compound rate is 0.0%. That is 2.9% of the quarter's revenue. The same quarter a year earlier earned ₹15.0 Cr.

Jun 26 profit was ₹24.0 Cr, +60.0% year on year — the 4th consecutive quarter of growth. On the full year, FY26 printed ₹116 Cr (+8.4%), and the 10-year compound rate is 0.0%.

Why profit moved: revenue contributed −7.1% and the margin +2.0 pp — the quarter was margin-led: most of the profit growth came from keeping more of each sale.

Pace comparison, last four quarters: profit +25.0% vs revenue +7.8%. Profit is growing faster than sales — fixed costs are being spread over a bigger base, and each extra rupee of revenue drops more to the bottom line.

Cash flow — the router The P&L says what was earned; the cash-flow statement says what actually arrived. Operating cash flow (CFO) against profit is the cleanest lie detector in the accounts.

Over the last 3 fiscal years 233% of Nilkamal Ltd's reported profit arrived as operating cash — the cash follows the profit. In FY26 that was ₹306 Cr of operating cash against ₹116 Cr of profit. After ₹184 Cr of capital spending, ₹122 Cr was left as free cash.

FY26: operating cash of ₹306 Cr against reported profit of ₹116 Cr, leaving free cash of ₹122 Cr after ₹184 Cr of capital spending. Across the last 3 fiscal years the conversion rate is 233% of profit.

Cash-flow readings here are annual — that is the resolution our series carries, so this section moves once a year.

Why conversion sits at 233%: the cash cycle tightened 39 days between FY21 and FY26 — cash that used to wait in the cycle now reaches the bank sooner.

Router verdict: the bigger cash user is investment — capital spending ran 1.7× depreciation over three years, so the next section's job is to check what that build-out is buying.

Where the cash goes Working capital is the cash tied up between paying suppliers and getting paid: debtor days (customers owe), inventory days (stock waits), and the cash conversion cycle (the whole loop, in days of sales).

Nilkamal Ltd's cash conversion cycle runs 109 days in FY26, down from 148 days in FY21. Capital spending ran ₹626 Cr over the last 3 years. At FY26 sales of ₹3,778 Cr each day of that cycle holds about ₹10.4 Cr, so roughly ₹1,128 Cr sits inside the business at any moment.

FY26: debtors at 45 days, inventory at 110 days — roughly 3.6 months of stock waiting to sell; that is where the cash sits while it waits — for a full cycle of 109 days, tighter than FY21's 148.

The full loop: cash goes out to suppliers and production on day 0; stock waits 110 days to sell; customers pay about 45 days after that; and suppliers themselves are paid at 46 days — netting out to the 109-day cycle.

In money terms: at FY26 sales of ₹3,778 Cr, each day of the cycle holds about ₹10.4 Cr — so the 109-day loop keeps roughly ₹1,128 Cr sitting inside the business at any moment.

On the investment side: capital spending of ₹626 Cr over the last 3 fiscal years against ₹377 Cr of depreciation — the company is building well ahead of wear-and-tear. Capital work-in-progress stands at ₹22.0 Cr (FY26) — capacity paid for but not yet earning.

The synthesis: the cash is going into capacity, not disappearing into the cycle — the question becomes whether the new capacity earns.

Return on capital Return on capital employed (ROCE) is the profit the whole business earns on all the money in it — equity and debt together. It is the single best test of whether growth creates value or just size.⚠ unverified

Nilkamal Ltd earns a ROCE of 11% in FY26. That is up from a trough of 9% in FY22. Return on invested capital clears the cost of that capital by −4.6 percentage points, so growth here is not yet paying for the capital it uses. The wiring behind it is 3.1% net margin on 1.50× asset turns.

FY26 ROCE is 11%, recovered from a FY22 trough of 9% — the full ladder below shows the fall and the climb, undoctored.

🚨 Why the return is what it is — the wiring (FY26): 3.1% net margin × 1.50× asset turns × 1.60× balance-sheet leverage ≈ 7.4% on equity. Margin does its share; leverage is modest — this is an earned return, not a borrowed one.

The capstone test — ROIC − WACC: 7.4% − 12.0% = a −4.6 pp spread. The 12.0% is a standing assumption for the cost of capital in India, not a per-stock estimate — read the sign and the size of the spread, not the decimals. Negative — growth at these returns destroys value until the returns recover.

Debt Debt-to-equity says how much of the business is funded by borrowings. Low is the safe corner; the trend matters as much as the level.⚠ unverified

Nilkamal Ltd carries total debt of ₹418 Cr against shareholder equity of ₹1,579 Cr as of Mar 26, a debt-to-equity of 0.26 — effectively unlevered. On the annual view that ratio went from 0.29 in FY22 to 0.26 in FY26. The returns elsewhere on this page are therefore earned rather than borrowed.

Mar 26: total debt of ₹418 Cr against shareholder equity of ₹1,579 Cr — a debt-to-equity of 0.26. On the annual view, debt-to-equity went from 0.29 (FY22) to 0.26 (FY26). The returns on this page are earned, not borrowed.

Ownership Who owns the stock, quarter by quarter: promoters (the controlling owners), foreign and domestic institutions, and the public. Steady accumulation by people close to the numbers is a signal; a quiet register is also an answer.

Domestic institutions cut 4.8 points of Nilkamal Ltd over 8 quarters, the biggest move on the register. That takes domestic institutions to 12.9% of the company. Foreign institutions moved −0.1 points over the same window, to 1.0%. The register is read on the four disclosed classes only; nothing is inferred between filings.

The register over the last two years — Domestic institutions: −4.8 points over 8 quarters to 12.9%; Foreign institutions: −0.1 points over 8 quarters to 1.0%; Promoters: +0.0 points over 8 quarters to 64.5%.

🚨 Why the register moved: domestic institutions drove it (−4.8 points) — distribution into the market’s bid.

Safety line The Z-score estimates how far a company sits from balance-sheet distress — above roughly 3 is safe, below roughly 1.8 is the danger zone. It was built for manufacturers, so it is not applied to banks and lenders.

Nilkamal Ltd: the Z-score reads 4.41. A Z-score above roughly 3 reads as safe and below roughly 1.8 as the distress zone, so this sits well clear of distress. It is a distance-to-distress estimate from the balance sheet, not a forecast of failure.

Why it matters: a Z-score of 4.41 sits well clear of the distress zone — the balance sheet is not the risk here.

The safety line in one sentence: the Z-score reads 4.41.

Frequently asked questions