Krishival Foods Ltd

Price story Before the numbers, the tape. A stock price moves through four repeating seasons: a flat base (stage 1), an advance (2), a top (3), a decline (4). Where the price sits in that cycle frames everything below.

Krishival Foods Ltd trades at ₹407, in a confirmed uptrend and 10 weeks into that stage. That is +9.0% against its own 200-day average. It sits at 59% of a 52-week range of ₹312 to ₹473. On relative strength it is currently behind the NIFTY 500 on a trailing-13-week view (5 weeks and counting).

Today the stock is in a confirmed uptrend — week 10 of stage 2, confirmed. At ₹407 it trades +9.0% versus its 200-day average and sits at 59% of its 52-week range (₹312–₹473).

Against the market, two honest reads. Cumulative: over the last 4.4 years the stock moved +825% while the NIFTY 500 moved +54% — ahead of the index over the full window. Recent form: on a trailing-13-week view the stock is currently behind (5 weeks and counting; last ahead the week of 2026-07-10) — the ribbon below is that same metric, week by week.

What would end the trend, mechanically: two Friday closes in a row below the 200-day line. That is the exit rule — no debates.

Story check

Krishival Foods Ltd's story is not scored yet against the markers our research file set on 14 June 2026. Where it sits in its own cycle: Not stated in the research file. Still open: Full utilization already slipped once (Mar 2028 → Q1 FY29); each 6-month delay pushes the 14–15% EBITDA milestone and caps the consolidated margin expansion thesis.

Our read, 14 June 2026. A dual-brand FMCG platform (nuts + ice cream) in early capacity ramp — PE at the 12th percentile of its 4-year history while TTM PAT grew 64% YoY, with the ice cream segment now profitable one year ahead of guidance.

What is proven. A dual-brand FMCG platform (nuts + ice cream) in early capacity ramp — PE at the 12th percentile of its 4-year history while TTM PAT grew 64% YoY, with the ice cream segment now profitable one year ahead of guidance.

What is not proven yet. Full utilization already slipped once (Mar 2028 → Q1 FY29); each 6-month delay pushes the 14–15% EBITDA milestone and caps the consolidated margin expansion thesis.

Layer 1 read, 27 June 2026 — KEEP. Real earnings-driven cheapening on a young capacity ramp — but cash isn't converting and timelines keep slipping, so P2 not P1. The PE compressed from ~183x to ~48x purely because EPS quadrupled (₹1.46→₹8.38), and the last 12 quarters show revenue ramping 29→102 Cr with the ice-cream brand profitable a year ahead of plan — a genuine fresh inflection. The brake is that three years of profit have produced roughly zero operating cash and management has already pushed its full-capacity deadline out a year.

What would change Layer 1’s mind. A second consecutive quarter of negative operating cash flow with the cash-conversion-cycle re-bloating (reversing the 367→94-day improvement) would turn the accrual concern from a drag into a thesis break.

🚨 Layer 2 read, 27 June 2026 — DROP. The 'EPS-led inflection' is topline + other-income, not operating earnings — OPM collapsed to 5.3% and PAT is 85% other income while cash and FII exit. L1 kept this on the read that EPS-led multiple compression is real (EPS Rs 1.46->8.38, PE at the 12th percentile), but the freshest quarter contradicts it: a db query shows Mar 2026 operating profit FELL to Rs 5.42 Cr and OPM collapsed to 5.31% even as revenue rose 37%, and reported PAT of Rs 5.59 Cr is ~85% other income (Rs 4.77 Cr). The cash never converts — 3-year OCF/PAT aggregate is zero and FY26 OCF/FCF are negative — and FII holding collapsed from 10.13% to 0.54%. The Working Capital Growth Governor and Quality of Earnings Filter models are both decisively violated.

What would change Layer 2’s mind. Two consecutive quarters of OPM rebuilding back toward the 12-18% historical band with operating profit (not other income) driving PAT AND operating cash flow turning positive — proving the Mar 2026 5.3% OPM was a one-quarter ice-cream-ramp drag rather than structural margin erosion — would restore the operating-leverage thesis and reverse the DROP.

The test written in advance. Ice Cream Capacity Timeline Slippage (second occurrence) — Ice Cream Capacity Timeline Slippage (second occurrence) Q1 FY27 Melton Mello utilization rate vs guided 25%+ ramp; any change in Q1 FY29 timeline in the next concall by the next result.

The test written in advance. Weak Operating Cash Flow on Growth Scaling (ACCRUAL_HEAVY pattern) — Weak Operating Cash Flow on Growth Scaling (ACCRUAL_HEAVY pattern) FY27 OCF/PAT ratio; rights issue tranche receipt timing; any unplanned debt raise by the next result.

The test written in advance. Other-Income Inflation in PAT (4 of 11 quarters flagged) — Other-Income Inflation in PAT (4 of 11 quarters flagged) Other income as % of PBT in each quarter; management clarification on nature of other income sources by the next result.

What the company does. FY26 consolidated: revenue ₹293 Cr (+45% YoY), EBITDA ₹42 Cr (+66%, 13.8% margin), PAT ₹22 Cr (+64%) — both segments scaling with margin discipline. PE multiple compressed from ~183x in Jun 2022 to ~48x today (12th percentile of available history) as EPS expanded from ₹1.46 to ₹8.38 — classic earnings-driven multiple compression, not deterioration. Melton Mello ice cream achieved PAT profitability (1.7–1.8% margin) one year ahead of target at just 25% capacity utilization — management has a concrete path to 14–15% EBITDA at full 1 lakh litres/day by Q1 FY29.

🚨 What the surface reading misses. The surface reading is: PE at 48x in FMCG small-cap reads expensive — above Nifty FMCG average The research reads it further: The PE has compressed 74% from the 183x peak as EPS expanded 474%; the 48x today is the historical TROUGH of the PE range (12th percentile). The market has not re-rated the earnings growth — this is earnings-driven compression, not expensive re-rating

🚨 What the surface reading misses. The surface reading is: OPM 5.3% reads as poor margin business — below mid-cap FMCG standards The research reads it further: The 5.3% is the 0th percentile of own range — this is the quarterly trough. It is caused by: (a) Q4 FY26 seasonality (ice cream B2B wedding quarter at lower realization), (b) ₹2.88 Cr ESOP charge hitting Q4, (c) Melton Mello early-scale margin dilution. Normalized OPM at 13.5% gives a normalized PE of 38x (0th percentile of own range) — the trailing multiple is actually understating the normalized cheapness

Lever 6 · Order-book wins — BUILDING. New 10 MT/day facility commissioned Apr 2026; full 2 lakh sq ft Halkarni MIDC factory under construction targeting 40 MT/day — nuts segment sustains 15% EBITDA through scale, confirming operating leverage. What proves it keeps working: Krishival Nuts Capacity Doubling (10 MT/day → 20 MT/day → 40 MT/day). It stops working if Q1 FY27 Melton Mello utilization rate vs guided 25%+ ramp; any change in Q1 FY29 timeline in the next concall.

Lever 14 · A bigger market to sell into — BUILDING. ₹45,000 Cr India nuts market with below-global per-capita consumption shifting from loose/unbranded to organized; Krishival targets 10% India market share from a ~0.5% base today. What proves it keeps working: Category Premiumization + Unorganized-to-Organized Shift. It stops working if Q1 FY27 Melton Mello utilization rate vs guided 25%+ ramp; any change in Q1 FY29 timeline in the next concall.

Lever 1 · Operating leverage — BUILDING. Nuts peak in Q3–Q4 (festival/winter demand), ice cream peak in Q1–Q2 — inverse seasonality provides working capital smoothing and revenue floor in both halves. What proves it keeps working: Inverse Seasonality Between Nuts and Ice Cream (WC optimization). It stops working if Q1 FY27 Melton Mello utilization rate vs guided 25%+ ramp; any change in Q1 FY29 timeline in the next concall.

Sources: our stock research file (14 June 2026) · quarterly results through Jun 26 · the company’s own earnings calls. The story check is re-scored every results season; the record below never changes.

Revenue Revenue is the top line: everything the company billed its customers in the period.

Krishival Foods Ltd reported ₹89.0 Cr of revenue in the Jun 26 quarter, +79.6% year on year. That is the 5th straight quarter of year-on-year growth. Over 7 years it has compounded at 28.7% a year. The last full year, FY26, came in at ₹293 Cr. The last four reported quarters add to ₹332 Cr.

Why this happened. The existing 10 MT/day nuts facility runs at 70% utilization (FY26). Management targets 90% utilization on existing capacity + 25% on new 10 MT/day in FY27. A new 35,000 sq ft processing unit was commissioned April 2026, adding 10 MT/day. The full 2 lakh sq ft Halkarni MIDC factory targets 40 MT/day over two years. At 15% EBITDA through scale, each incremental revenue rupee drops proportionately — operating leverage is already visible (FY24 revenue ₹103 Cr → FY26 ₹293 Cr with EBITDA margin up from 13% to 13.8% on a consolidated basis despite ice cream dilution).

FY26 revenue came in at ₹293 Cr (+45.0% on the year), capping 7 years at 28.7% compound. The latest quarter (Jun 26) printed ₹89.0 Cr, +79.6% year on year — the 5th consecutive quarter of year-over-year growth.

Pace check: the last four quarters averaged +50.9% growth against the decade's 28.7% — the current year is running faster than its own long-run rate.

Acceleration check: trailing-twelve-month revenue grew +49.2% over the last 4 quarters against +121.8%/yr over the last 8 — rolling over; TTM profit +60.4% vs +102.3%/yr — rolling over.

Operating margin Operating margin is what is left of every ₹100 of sales after running the business, before interest and tax. It is the cleanest read on pricing power and cost control.

Krishival Foods Ltd's operating margin is 11.8% in the Jun 26 quarter, +0.9 percentage points against the same quarter a year ago. Across 8 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged 7.0% to 15.0%. The current quarter sits inside that band.

Why this happened. Nuts revenue is biased toward Q3–Q4 (weddings, festivals, winter gifting). Ice cream peaks Q1–Q2. The combination theoretically reduces the peak WC absorption that plagued FY23–FY24 (CCC 203/367 days). FY25 showed early working of this: CCC fell to 118 days, OCF turned positive at +₹46 Cr vs −₹31 Cr in FY24. FY26 CCC at 94 days vs 367 in FY24 — the inverse-seasonality benefit is mechanically visible in the balance sheet.

The latest quarter's operating margin is 11.8%, +0.9 pp against the same quarter a year ago. Across 8 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged 7.0%–15.0%.

Why the margin moved: operating margin went +0.9 pp year on year while gross margin went +1.7 pp — the gain came mostly from the gross line: input costs and pricing.

Net profit Net profit is what survives every cost, interest and tax — the number EPS, dividends and book value all grow from.

Krishival Foods Ltd earned ₹5.6 Cr of net profit in the Jun 26 quarter, +27.3% year on year. It is the 5th consecutive quarter of growth. Full-year FY26 profit was ₹22.0 Cr. The 7-year compound rate is 55.5%. That is 6.3% of the quarter's revenue. The same quarter a year earlier earned ₹4.4 Cr.

Jun 26 profit was ₹5.6 Cr, +27.3% year on year — the 5th consecutive quarter of growth. On the full year, FY26 printed ₹22.0 Cr (+57.1%), and the 7-year compound rate is 55.5%.

Why profit moved: revenue contributed +79.6% and the margin +0.9 pp — the quarter was revenue-led, with the margin roughly flat.

Pace comparison, last four quarters: profit +3,193.0% vs revenue +50.9%. Profit is growing faster than sales — fixed costs are being spread over a bigger base, and each extra rupee of revenue drops more to the bottom line.

Cash flow — the router The P&L says what was earned; the cash-flow statement says what actually arrived. Operating cash flow (CFO) against profit is the cleanest lie detector in the accounts.

Over the last 3 fiscal years 0% of Krishival Foods Ltd's reported profit arrived as operating cash — a gap worth watching. In FY26 that was ₹−15.0 Cr of operating cash against ₹22.0 Cr of profit. After ₹37.0 Cr of capital spending, ₹−52.0 Cr was left as free cash.

FY26: operating cash of ₹−15.0 Cr against reported profit of ₹22.0 Cr, leaving free cash of ₹−52.0 Cr after ₹37.0 Cr of capital spending. Across the last 3 fiscal years the conversion rate is 0% of profit.

Cash-flow readings here are annual — that is the resolution our series carries, so this section moves once a year.

🚨 Why conversion sits at 0%: the cash cycle tightened 37 days between FY21 and FY26 — cash that used to wait in the cycle now reaches the bank sooner. Less than 70% of profit arriving as cash is the thing to watch on this page.

Router verdict: the bigger cash user is investment — capital spending ran 4.9× depreciation over three years, so the next section's job is to check what that build-out is buying.

Where the cash goes Working capital is the cash tied up between paying suppliers and getting paid: debtor days (customers owe), inventory days (stock waits), and the cash conversion cycle (the whole loop, in days of sales).

Krishival Foods Ltd's cash conversion cycle runs 94 days in FY26, down from 131 days in FY21. Capital spending ran ₹64.0 Cr over the last 3 years. At FY26 sales of ₹293 Cr each day of that cycle holds about ₹0.8 Cr, so roughly ₹75.0 Cr sits inside the business at any moment.

FY26: debtors at 61 days, inventory at 46 days — roughly 1.5 months of stock waiting to sell; that is where the cash sits while it waits — for a full cycle of 94 days, tighter than FY21's 131.

The full loop: cash goes out to suppliers and production on day 0; stock waits 46 days to sell; customers pay about 61 days after that; and suppliers themselves are paid at 13 days — netting out to the 94-day cycle.

In money terms: at FY26 sales of ₹293 Cr, each day of the cycle holds about ₹0.8 Cr — so the 94-day loop keeps roughly ₹75.0 Cr sitting inside the business at any moment.

On the investment side: capital spending of ₹64.0 Cr over the last 3 fiscal years against ₹13.0 Cr of depreciation — the company is building well ahead of wear-and-tear. Capital work-in-progress stands at ₹11.0 Cr (FY26) — capacity paid for but not yet earning.

The synthesis: the cash is going into capacity, not disappearing into the cycle — the question becomes whether the new capacity earns.

Return on capital Return on capital employed (ROCE) is the profit the whole business earns on all the money in it — equity and debt together. It is the single best test of whether growth creates value or just size.⚠ unverified

Krishival Foods Ltd earns a ROCE of 16% in FY26. That is up from a trough of 6% in FY21. Return on invested capital clears the cost of that capital by +0.8 percentage points, so growth here adds value rather than only size. The wiring behind it is 7.5% net margin on 1.17× asset turns.

FY26 ROCE is 16%, recovered from a FY21 trough of 6% — the full ladder below shows the fall and the climb, undoctored.

Why the return is what it is — the wiring (FY26): 7.5% net margin × 1.17× asset turns × 1.30× balance-sheet leverage ≈ 11.4% on equity. Margin does its share; leverage is modest — this is an earned return, not a borrowed one.

The capstone test — ROIC − WACC: 12.8% − 12.0% = a +0.8 pp spread. The 12.0% is a standing assumption for the cost of capital in India, not a per-stock estimate — read the sign and the size of the spread, not the decimals. Positive but thin — value creation with little room for error.

Debt Debt-to-equity says how much of the business is funded by borrowings. Low is the safe corner; the trend matters as much as the level.⚠ unverified

Krishival Foods Ltd carries total debt of ₹36.0 Cr against shareholder equity of ₹200 Cr as of Mar 26, a debt-to-equity of 0.18 — effectively unlevered. On the annual view that ratio went from 0.26 in FY22 to 0.18 in FY26. The returns elsewhere on this page are therefore earned rather than borrowed.

Mar 26: total debt of ₹36.0 Cr against shareholder equity of ₹200 Cr — a debt-to-equity of 0.18. On the annual view, debt-to-equity went from 0.26 (FY22) to 0.18 (FY26). The returns on this page are earned, not borrowed.

Ownership Who owns the stock, quarter by quarter: promoters (the controlling owners), foreign and domestic institutions, and the public. Steady accumulation by people close to the numbers is a signal; a quiet register is also an answer.

Foreign institutions cut 11.3 points of Krishival Foods Ltd over 8 quarters, the biggest move on the register. That takes foreign institutions to 0.5% of the company. Domestic institutions moved +3.0 points over the same window, to 3.0%. The register is read on the four disclosed classes only; nothing is inferred between filings.

The register over the last two years — Foreign institutions: −11.3 points over 8 quarters to 0.5%; Domestic institutions: +3.0 points over 8 quarters to 3.0%; Promoters: +0.0 points over 8 quarters to 37.2%.

Why the register moved: rotation — foreign institutions −11.3 points against domestic institutions +3.0 points over 8 quarters, with promoters holding steady — one class of institutions handing the register to the other, not a verdict change by the people closest to the numbers.

Safety line The Z-score estimates how far a company sits from balance-sheet distress — above roughly 3 is safe, below roughly 1.8 is the danger zone. It was built for manufacturers, so it is not applied to banks and lenders.

Krishival Foods Ltd: the Z-score is not available for this stock, so we say so rather than invent one. It is a distance-to-distress estimate from the balance sheet, not a forecast of failure. The debt, cash-flow and return sections above carry the balance-sheet evidence this page does hold, and each of them states its own reporting date.

The safety line in one sentence: the Z-score is not available for this stock, so we say so rather than invent one.

Valuation P/E is the price of ₹1 of annual profit: how many rupees the market pays for each rupee the company earns in a year.

Krishival Foods Ltd trades at 47.3× P/E, near the bottom of its own range — cheaper only 14% of the time. Its long-run median P/E is 78.4×, measured across 4.2 years of weekly readings. This places the multiple against the stock’s own record, and says nothing about what the business is worth.

Today's P/E of 47.3× is near the bottom of its own range — cheaper only 14% of the time, against a long-run median of 78.4× measured over 4.2 years of weekly readings. This is a comparison against the stock's own history — not a claim about what it is worth.

Why the multiple sits where it does: over the past year annual EPS moved +58.4% against a +12.7% price move — earnings outran the price, pushing the multiple DOWN its own range.

The price move, decomposed: over 3y, of the +16.6%/yr price move, ~+60.8%/yr came from earnings growth and ~−44.2 pp from the multiple (compressing). The split is the honest approximate (price return minus earnings growth); it makes the rally itself visible instead of hiding it behind the percentile.

Put together: the multiple is low against its own past, so the story rests on the earnings line underneath it, not the multiple.

A quarterly PEG curve, which only the second data source carries, is not drawn on this page: its two data sources do not share enough overlapping reported history to be compared. A figure nobody could check is not used to price growth — the gap is a decision, not missing data.

What the price assumes This reading works the multiple backwards. It asks one question: what yearly rate of profit growth is a buyer at the market price already paying for? The number is the growth rate that makes eleven years of profit — six years growing, then five fading — add up to that day's market price, once each year is discounted at 11% a year.

At its price on 29 June 2026, Krishival Foods Ltd was priced for profit growth of about 26.6% a year. Profit itself has compounded 55.5% a year over the past 7 years. The market pays that at 47.3× P/E, the 14th percentile of its own 4-year range.

What the two numbers say together. The multiple is low against its own past, and the growth the price is paying for is below what this company has actually delivered. Both readings sit on the same earnings, so they are one reading rather than two.

How to hold this number: it is a reading of one day's price, taken on 29 June 2026, not a running figure. A higher price is paying for more growth and a lower price for less, so it moves whenever the price does, and this page does not restate it between measurements. Every other number on this page is read off the live quote.

Stage: No read Every business sits somewhere on a fundamental arc, and this page names the spot before anything else. The last twelve quarters of revenue, profit and EPS growth — plus the return the business earns on its capital — are read as curves: Deteriorating (the curves are falling), Turning around (a trough has just formed and the last few quarters lift off it), Improving (the climb off the trough is sustained), Consistent (steadily positive with healthy returns), Topping out (still high but decelerating from the peak). When the curves genuinely disagree the read is Mixed; too little history is No read. CAGR (compound annual growth rate) is the smooth yearly pace that turns the starting value into the latest one — the fairest way to compare growth across different time spans. Read the columns together: if the 1-year number towers over the 10-year, recent growth is running hotter than the long-run trend. A dash means that window is not held, or the base year was a loss (where a growth rate is not meaningful).

Krishival Foods Ltd reads as no read on its fundamental arc. Under eight usable quarters on the growth trio — not enough history for an honest trajectory read. The read is built from 6 quarters across 1 curve, on partial evidence.

Why it matters: with too little history, an honest page says so instead of guessing a trajectory.

One or more growth curves carry a base-effect spike — a large year-on-year move off a near-zero or loss-making comparable quarter. Those spikes are capped before the classifier reads the trajectory, and shown pinned on the chart, so a single distorted quarter does not drive the stage call.

Return readings here are annual, not quarterly — read as level and direction only; they can confirm the growth curves but never drive the stage on their own.

Fewer than eight usable quarters on the growth curves — this page will not guess a trajectory from a stub of history.

4-Factor Sector Score

64.4/100 — rank 1 of 1 in FMCG - Dry Fruits · 84% evidence confidence

Krishival Foods Ltd scores 64.4 out of 100 against the 1 companies it is compared with in FMCG - Dry Fruits, ranking 1. Balanced evidence: keep at normal research priority and require another comparable period before raising conviction.

The four contributions add to the total exactly: 26 + 13.8 + 13.1 + 11.5 = 64.4. This is the SAME number shown on the sector comparison — it is computed once, for the whole peer set, and read here.

What would change it: The read weakens if profit growth turns negative or margin improvement reverses while sector-relative strength deteriorates.

Said versus delivered

What Krishival Foods Ltd's management promised, set against what actually arrived — 2 tracked promises on the record. Read straight from the company’s own earnings calls. A promise that slipped stays on this page after it is met.

🚨 Ice Cream Capacity - Full Utilization Deadline Slipped · 4 May 2026. In the Nov 2025 call, management committed to a specific target of March 2028 for full utilization of the 1 lakh liter per day ice cream plant, stating it twice across both prepared remarks and Q&A. The May 2026 call moves this deadline to "by Q1 FY29" (April-June 2028) without offering any explanation for the change. Full capacity utilization is the direct trigger for the segment EBITDA margin expanding from the current 7% toward the stated 14-15% long-run target, making any slippage here material to the ice cream profitability timeline.

Ice Cream and Nuts Revenue Parity - One Year Pushout · 4 May 2026. In the Nov 2025 call, management projected that ice cream and nuts revenues would reach near-parity within the FY27-FY28 window, explicitly including FY27 as a possible achievement date. The May 2026 call shifts this window entirely to FY28-FY29, definitively removing FY27 from scope and extending the earliest possible parity date by a full year without any explanation. With ice cream at approximately 30% of FY26 revenue, this pushout signals a meaningful deceleration in the ice cream revenue ramp relative to prior projections.

Every quote above is taken word for word from the company’s own earnings calls.

Frequently asked questions