Kanpur Plastipack Ltd

Price story Before the numbers, the tape. A stock price moves through four repeating seasons: a flat base (stage 1), an advance (2), a top (3), a decline (4). Where the price sits in that cycle frames everything below.

Kanpur Plastipack Ltd trades at ₹246, in a confirmed uptrend and 19 weeks into that stage. That is +17.4% against its own 200-day average. It sits at 75% of a 52-week range of ₹162 to ₹273. On relative strength it has been ahead of the NIFTY 500 on a trailing-13-week view for 6 straight weeks.

Today the stock is in a confirmed uptrend — week 19 of stage 2, confirmed. At ₹246 it trades +17.4% versus its 200-day average and sits at 75% of its 52-week range (₹162–₹273).

Against the market, two honest reads. Cumulative: over the last 10.4 years the stock moved +330% while the NIFTY 500 moved +246% — ahead of the index over the full window. Recent form: on a trailing-13-week view the stock has been ahead for 6 straight weeks — the ribbon below is that same metric, week by week.

What would end the trend, mechanically: two Friday closes in a row below the 200-day line. That is the exit rule — no debates.

Story check

Kanpur Plastipack Ltd's story is not scored yet against the markers our research file set on 22 August 2026. Where it sits in its own cycle: CYCLE_BOTTOM_WITH_EARNINGS_RECOVERY. Still open: A sustained failure of the core FIBC business to convert expanded capacity into profitable volume, causing operating profitability to reverse, would invalidate the thesis.

Our read, 22 August 2026. A commodity packaging business recovering from a three-year trough — FIBC mix shift and three new platforms give the next 8 quarters a genuine growth engine, but management's guidance credibility is the key risk to underwrite.

From the numbers. PE at 12.5x, 29th percentile of 10Y range, 0.707x median of 17.67x. Classified CYCLE_BOTTOM with GOLDEN_SETUP EPS profile. Peak PE was 56.4x (Jun23); previous trough was 8.8x (Mar22). Current position represents 78%…

From the price. Price stage 2, week 19 — above its 200-day line, relative strength rising.

From the research. A commodity packaging business recovering from a three-year trough — FIBC mix shift and three new platforms give the next 8 quarters a genuine growth engine, but management's guidance credibility is the key risk to…

🚨 Where they disagree. PE at 12.5x, 29th percentile of 10Y range, 0.707x median of 17.67x. Classified CYCLE_BOTTOM with GOLDEN_SETUP EPS profile. Peak PE was 56.4x (Jun23); previous trough was 8.8x (Mar22). Current position represents 78% compression from peak driven by earnings expansion (EPS recovering from near-zero to Rs 16.13 FY26 and Rs 4.8 in Q1 FY27), not by price decline. DII accumulation (1.67% stake in Aug26) confirms institutional recognition of the turnaround.

What is proven. A commodity packaging business recovering from a three-year trough — FIBC mix shift and three new platforms give the next 8 quarters a genuine growth engine, but management's guidance credibility is the key risk to underwrite.

What is not proven yet. A sustained failure of the core FIBC business to convert expanded capacity into profitable volume, causing operating profitability to reverse, would invalidate the thesis.

🚨 What would change our mind. A sustained failure of the core FIBC business to convert expanded capacity into profitable volume, causing operating profitability to reverse, would invalidate the thesis.

Layer 1 read, 22 August 2026 — KEEP. Profit went from a loss to Rs 46 crore while the shares got cheaper — the recovery is real, the promises are not. Kanpur Plastipack makes big woven bulk bags, and three years of near-zero profits ended: FY26 profit rose 254.5% to Rs 39 crore and the quarterly run has been 2, 8, 3, 6, 8, 11, 15 and 12 crore. The reason is a deliberate mix shift out of plain fabric at about 7% margin into bulk bags at 12.5-13.5%, with the bag line running at 85% of capacity and Europe — nearly 60% of exports — now paying zero tariff. I checked the latest quarter in the database rather than trusting the summary: operating profit itself grew 31%, so this is the business improving and not an accounting flatter. What holds it to a second-tier rating is management's word — eight separate guidance items have been revised…

What would change Layer 1’s mind. The bulk-bag line failing to convert its new capacity into profitable volume — concretely, quarterly production stuck near the 3,000 tonnes of Q1 FY27 through FY27 with no path to the 5,000-tonne Q1 FY28 target, while operating margin slips back under 7%. That is the timeline's own falsification sharpened to a number I can check each quarter. The second trigger is quality of profit: if a coming quarter shows operating profit flat or falling year on year with other income carrying the pre-tax…

Layer 2 read, 22 August 2026 — BENCH. The recovery is real, but one promised project must land on time before promotion. Profit recovered strongly, yet the stock-targeted model says repeated guidance slips should force a WATCH call until a major milestone is delivered, and the Timeline records eight revisions. A live official check also found the EU-India agreement is not yet binding, so the export-tariff catalyst cannot override the delivery risk.

What would change Layer 2’s mind. Unit 3 completing by the stated mid-September 2026 date and starting production without another revision would flip BENCH to ADVANCE.

The test written in advance. A sustained failure of the core FIBC business to convert expanded capacity into profitable volume, causing operating profitability to reverse, would invalidate the thesis. — the thesis as written as stated by the next result.

The test written in advance. Management Guidance Credibility (8 cross-call revisions) — Management Guidance Credibility (8 cross-call revisions) Quarterly revenue run-rate in non-woven and Unit 3 FIBC production tonnage vs stated targets by the next result.

The test written in advance. Polypropylene & Freight Cost Volatility — Polypropylene & Freight Cost Volatility Ocean freight indices and quarterly gross margin sustainability in the 45-47% target range by the next result.

What the company does. FY26 closed with revenue +27.5% (Rs 718 Cr), PAT quadrupled to Rs 39 Cr, and OPM recovering 4%→9% — operating leverage on the FIBC core is visible after three years of trough. PE sits at 29th percentile of 10Y range at 12.5x vs median 17.67x (CYCLE_BOTTOM, EARNINGS_DRIVEN decomposition), while EPS has recovered to Rs 16.13 in FY26 and Rs 4.8 in Q1 FY27. Three new platforms launching in FY27 (FIBC Unit 3, Non-Woven technical textiles, S-Can premium PP yarn JV) target incremental revenue on existing asset infrastructure with manageable capex.

Lever 1 · Operating leverage — BUILDING. FIBC at 85% utilization, 18,000 tons capacity, confirmed-order procurement + per-kg pass-through protecting 45-47% gross margins — operating leverage visible as PAT grew 4x on volume and realization gains. What proves it keeps working: Operating Leverage on FIBC Core. It stops working if A sustained failure of the core FIBC business to convert expanded capacity into profitable volume, causing operating profitability to reverse, would invalidate the thesis.

Lever 2 · Value-added mix — BUILDING. Reallocation from lower-margin Fabric (7% EBITDA) to FIBC (12.5-13.5% EBITDA) — targeting 70-75% of output to structurally expand blended manufacturing margin. What proves it keeps working: FIBC Product Mix Shift (52% → 70-75% of manufacturing). It stops working if A sustained failure of the core FIBC business to convert expanded capacity into profitable volume, causing operating profitability to reverse, would invalidate the thesis.

Lever 10 · New geographies — BUILDING. EU FTA at 0% tariff benefits Europe (56-60% of exports); Bangladesh faces structural constraints (no domestic polymer, port congestion, engineering talent limits) supporting Indian export share. What proves it keeps working: EU FTA Export Tailwind + Bangladesh Structural Constraints. It stops working if A sustained failure of the core FIBC business to convert expanded capacity into profitable volume, causing operating profitability to reverse, would invalidate the thesis.

Lever 9 · Buyback — BUILDING. Rs 55 Cr capex facility targeting automotive, geotextiles, and filtration — Q3 FY27 commissioning targeting Rs 20-25 Cr FY27 and Rs 100-120 Cr FY28 at 15-16% EBITDA. What proves it keeps working: Non-Woven Technical Textiles Entry (New TAM). It stops working if A sustained failure of the core FIBC business to convert expanded capacity into profitable volume, causing operating profitability to reverse, would invalidate the thesis.

Sources: our stock research file (22 August 2026) · quarterly results through Jun 26 · the company’s own earnings calls. The story check is re-scored every results season; the record below never changes.

Revenue Revenue is the top line: everything the company billed its customers in the period.

Kanpur Plastipack Ltd reported ₹204 Cr of revenue in the Jun 26 quarter, +13.3% year on year. That is the 11th straight quarter of year-on-year growth. Over 6 years it has compounded at 14.8% a year. The last full year, FY26, came in at ₹718 Cr. The last four reported quarters add to ₹741 Cr.

Why this happened. Europe accounts for 56-60% of exports with a diversified customer base where no single client exceeds 10-15%. The EU FTA provides a tariff advantage in the company's primary export geography. Regional competitors in Bangladesh face lack of domestic raw material access, port logistics delays, and infrastructure constraints. India retains an estimated 30% production cost advantage relative to European domestic producers.

FY26 revenue came in at ₹718 Cr (+27.5% on the year), capping 6 years at 14.8% compound. The latest quarter (Jun 26) printed ₹204 Cr, +13.3% year on year — the 11th consecutive quarter of year-over-year growth.

Pace check: the last four quarters averaged +12.1% growth against the decade's 14.8% — the current year is running slower than its own long-run rate.

Acceleration check: trailing-twelve-month revenue grew +12.1% over the last 4 quarters against +18.4%/yr over the last 8 — rolling over.

Operating margin Operating margin is what is left of every ₹100 of sales after running the business, before interest and tax. It is the cleanest read on pricing power and cost control.

Kanpur Plastipack Ltd's operating margin is 8.0% in the Jun 26 quarter, +1.0 percentage points against the same quarter a year ago. Across 7 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged 4.0% to 12.0%. The current quarter sits inside that band.

Why this happened. The core FIBC business drives operational earnings. Unit 2 operates at 85% utilization with a confirmed-order procurement model that mitigates raw material price volatility. The per-kg pass-through mechanism insulates operating profitability during commodity swings. FY26 saw operating leverage materialize as revenue rose 27.5% while PAT expanded to Rs 39 Cr. With Q1 FY27 standalone income crossing Rs 200 Cr and Unit 3 adding phased volume, core operating leverage remains the baseline earnings driver.

The latest quarter's operating margin is 8.0%, +1.0 pp against the same quarter a year ago. Across 7 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged 4.0%–12.0%.

Why the margin moved: operating margin went +1.3 pp year on year while gross margin went +2.4 pp — the gain came mostly from the gross line: input costs and pricing.

Net profit Net profit is what survives every cost, interest and tax — the number EPS, dividends and book value all grow from.

Kanpur Plastipack Ltd earned ₹12.0 Cr of net profit in the Jun 26 quarter, +100.0% year on year. It is the 4th consecutive quarter of growth. Full-year FY26 profit was ₹39.0 Cr. The 6-year compound rate is 40.8%. That is 5.9% of the quarter's revenue. The same quarter a year earlier earned ₹6.0 Cr.

Jun 26 profit was ₹12.0 Cr, +100.0% year on year — the 4th consecutive quarter of growth. On the full year, FY26 printed ₹39.0 Cr (+254.5%), and the 6-year compound rate is 40.8%.

Why profit moved: revenue contributed +13.3% and the margin +1.0 pp — the quarter was revenue-led, with the margin roughly flat.

Pace comparison, last four quarters: profit +209.4% vs revenue +12.1%. Profit is growing faster than sales — fixed costs are being spread over a bigger base, and each extra rupee of revenue drops more to the bottom line.

Cash flow — the router The P&L says what was earned; the cash-flow statement says what actually arrived. Operating cash flow (CFO) against profit is the cleanest lie detector in the accounts.

Over the last 3 fiscal years 163% of Kanpur Plastipack Ltd's reported profit arrived as operating cash — the cash follows the profit. In FY26 that was ₹51.0 Cr of operating cash against ₹39.0 Cr of profit. After ₹19.0 Cr of capital spending, ₹32.0 Cr was left as free cash.

FY26: operating cash of ₹51.0 Cr against reported profit of ₹39.0 Cr, leaving free cash of ₹32.0 Cr after ₹19.0 Cr of capital spending. Across the last 3 fiscal years the conversion rate is 163% of profit.

Cash-flow readings here are annual — that is the resolution our series carries, so this section moves once a year.

Why conversion sits at 163%: the cash cycle tightened 53 days between FY21 and FY26 — cash that used to wait in the cycle now reaches the bank sooner.

Router verdict: no single sink dominates — the next section checks both the working-capital cycle and the capital spending.

Where the cash goes Working capital is the cash tied up between paying suppliers and getting paid: debtor days (customers owe), inventory days (stock waits), and the cash conversion cycle (the whole loop, in days of sales).

Kanpur Plastipack Ltd's cash conversion cycle runs 116 days in FY26, down from 169 days in FY21. Capital spending ran ₹9.0 Cr over the last 3 years. At FY26 sales of ₹718 Cr each day of that cycle holds about ₹2.0 Cr, so roughly ₹228 Cr sits inside the business at any moment.

FY26: debtors at 48 days, inventory at 86 days — roughly 2.8 months of stock waiting to sell; that is where the cash sits while it waits — for a full cycle of 116 days, tighter than FY21's 169.

The full loop: cash goes out to suppliers and production on day 0; stock waits 86 days to sell; customers pay about 48 days after that; and suppliers themselves are paid at 18 days — netting out to the 116-day cycle.

In money terms: at FY26 sales of ₹718 Cr, each day of the cycle holds about ₹2.0 Cr — so the 116-day loop keeps roughly ₹228 Cr sitting inside the business at any moment.

On the investment side: capital spending of ₹9.0 Cr over the last 3 fiscal years against ₹37.0 Cr of depreciation — spending at or below maintenance level. Capital work-in-progress stands at ₹9.0 Cr (FY26) — capacity paid for but not yet earning.

The synthesis: neither the cycle nor the build-out is hoarding the cash — the machine is reasonably clean.

Return on capital Return on capital employed (ROCE) is the profit the whole business earns on all the money in it — equity and debt together. It is the single best test of whether growth creates value or just size.

Kanpur Plastipack Ltd earns a ROCE of 17% in FY26. That is up from a trough of 5% in FY23. Return on invested capital clears the cost of that capital by −0.9 percentage points, so growth here is not yet paying for the capital it uses. The wiring behind it is 5.4% net margin on 1.53× asset turns.

FY26 ROCE is 17%, recovered from a FY23 trough of 5% — the full ladder below shows the fall and the climb, undoctored.

🚨 Why the return is what it is — the wiring (FY26): 5.4% net margin × 1.53× asset turns × 1.75× balance-sheet leverage ≈ 14.5% on equity. Margin does its share; leverage is a meaningful part of the equation.

The capstone test — ROIC − WACC: 11.1% − 12.0% = a −0.9 pp spread. The 12.0% is a standing assumption for the cost of capital in India, not a per-stock estimate — read the sign and the size of the spread, not the decimals. Negative — growth at these returns destroys value until the returns recover.

Debt Debt-to-equity says how much of the business is funded by borrowings; interest cover says how many times operating profit pays the interest bill. Low and high, respectively, is the safe corner.

Kanpur Plastipack Ltd carries ₹112 Cr of borrowings against ₹268 Cr of equity in FY26, a debt-to-equity of 0.42. Operating profit covers the interest bill 6×. Over 5 years borrowings went from ₹158 Cr to ₹112 Cr. Capital spending ran ₹9.0 Cr across the last 3 of those years.

FY26: borrowings of ₹112 Cr against equity of ₹268 Cr — a debt-to-equity of 0.42. Operating profit covers the interest bill 6×. Over 5 years borrowings went from ₹158 Cr to ₹112 Cr while capital spending ran ₹9.0 Cr in just the last 3 — the build-out is being paid for out of cash, not debt.

Ownership Who owns the stock, quarter by quarter: promoters (the controlling owners), foreign and domestic institutions, and the public. Steady accumulation by people close to the numbers is a signal; a quiet register is also an answer.

Domestic institutions added 1.7 points of Kanpur Plastipack Ltd over 8 quarters, the biggest move on the register. That takes domestic institutions to 1.7% of the company. Promoters moved +1.4 points over the same window, to 68.2%. The register is read on the four disclosed classes only; nothing is inferred between filings.

Why this happened. Entry into needle-punch technical textiles expands addressable market across automotive interiors, footwear, geotextiles, and filtration. Two machines are scheduled for phased commissioning starting Q3 FY27. Management expects the segment to generate Rs 20-25 Cr in FY27 and scale toward Rs 100-120 Cr in FY28 at 15-16% EBITDA, delivering higher operating margins than the legacy packaging business.

The register over the last two years — Domestic institutions: +1.7 points over 8 quarters to 1.7%; Promoters: +1.4 points over 8 quarters to 68.2%; Foreign institutions: +0.0 points over 8 quarters to 0.0%.

Why the register moved: domestic institutions drove it (+1.7 points), alongside promoters (+1.4 points) — steady accumulation by institutions reading the same numbers this page reads.

Safety line The Z-score estimates how far a company sits from balance-sheet distress — above roughly 3 is safe, below roughly 1.8 is the danger zone. It was built for manufacturers, so it is not applied to banks and lenders.

Kanpur Plastipack Ltd: the Z-score is not available for this stock, so we say so rather than invent one. It is a distance-to-distress estimate from the balance sheet, not a forecast of failure. The debt, cash-flow and return sections above carry the balance-sheet evidence this page does hold, and each of them states its own reporting date.

The safety line in one sentence: the Z-score is not available for this stock, so we say so rather than invent one.

Valuation P/E is the price of ₹1 of annual profit: how many rupees the market pays for each rupee the company earns in a year.

Kanpur Plastipack Ltd trades at 13.4× P/E, mid-range by its own standards (40th percentile). Its long-run median P/E is 16.4×, measured across 6.3 years of weekly readings. This places the multiple against the stock’s own record, and says nothing about what the business is worth.

Today's P/E of 13.4× is mid-range by its own standards (40th percentile), against a long-run median of 16.4× measured over 6.3 years of weekly readings. This is a comparison against the stock's own history — not a claim about what it is worth.

Why the multiple sits where it does: over the past year annual EPS moved +226.5% against a +10.1% price move — earnings outran the price, pushing the multiple DOWN its own range.

The price move, decomposed: over 5y, of the +6.2%/yr price move, ~+5.9%/yr came from earnings growth and ~+0.3 pp from the multiple (roughly flat). The split is the honest approximate (price return minus earnings growth); it makes the rally itself visible instead of hiding it behind the percentile.

Put together: the multiple is unremarkable against its own past, so the story rests on the earnings line underneath it, not the multiple.

What the price assumes This reading works the multiple backwards. It asks one question: what yearly rate of profit growth is a buyer at the market price already paying for? The number is the growth rate that makes eleven years of profit — six years growing, then five fading — add up to that day's market price, once each year is discounted at 11% a year.

Solved at its 25 August 2026 price, Kanpur Plastipack Ltd was paying for profit growth of about 5.8% a year. Profit itself has compounded 40.8% a year over the past 6 years. Today the market pays 13.4× P/E, the 40th percentile of its own 6-year range.

What the two numbers say together. The multiple is unremarkable against its own past, and the growth the price is paying for is below what this company has actually delivered.

How to hold this number: it is a reading of one day's price, taken on 25 August 2026, not a running figure — every other number on this page, the multiple included, is read off the live quote as of 18 September 2026. A higher price is paying for more growth and a lower price for less, so it moves whenever the price does, and this page does not restate it between measurements.

Stage: Improving Every business sits somewhere on a fundamental arc, and this page names the spot before anything else. The last twelve quarters of revenue, profit and EPS growth — plus the return the business earns on its capital — are read as curves: Deteriorating (the curves are falling), Turning around (a trough has just formed and the last few quarters lift off it), Improving (the climb off the trough is sustained), Consistent (steadily positive with healthy returns), Topping out (still high but decelerating from the peak). When the curves genuinely disagree the read is Mixed; too little history is No read. CAGR (compound annual growth rate) is the smooth yearly pace that turns the starting value into the latest one — the fairest way to compare growth across different time spans. Read the columns together: if the 1-year number towers over the 10-year, recent growth is running hotter than the long-run trend. A dash means that window is not held, or the base year was a loss (where a growth rate is not meaningful).

Kanpur Plastipack Ltd reads as improving on its fundamental arc. Improving — profit growth bottomed 8 quarters ago at −57.1% and has held its recovery at +100.0% (single-quarter readings), ROCE lifting at 17.0%. The read is built from 8 quarters across 3 curves, on partial evidence.

Why it matters: a sustained climb off the trough is the setup this page is built to catch — the question moves to what you pay for it.

One or more growth curves carry a base-effect spike — a large year-on-year move off a near-zero or loss-making comparable quarter. Those spikes are capped before the classifier reads the trajectory, and shown pinned on the chart, so a single distorted quarter does not drive the stage call.

Return readings here are annual, not quarterly — read as level and direction only; they can confirm the growth curves but never drive the stage on their own.

A partial read: at least one curve is short, or the returns curve is not the computed quarterly series — hold the stage word a little more loosely.

4-Factor Sector Score

56.5/100 — rank 2 of 2 in Packaging - Polysacks · 77% evidence confidence

Kanpur Plastipack Ltd scores 56.5 out of 100 against the 2 companies it is compared with in Packaging - Polysacks, ranking 2. Acceleration candidate, not a confirmed leader: earnings are strong but sector-relative strength is -20.1% and the one-year return is 6%. Do not upgrade until sector-relative strength is above zero and another reported period confirms growth.

The four contributions add to the total exactly: 27.7 + 13.8 + 10 + 5 = 56.5. This is the SAME number shown on the sector comparison — it is computed once, for the whole peer set, and read here.

What would change it: The read weakens if profit growth turns negative or margin improvement reverses while sector-relative strength deteriorates.

Said versus delivered

What Kanpur Plastipack Ltd's management promised, set against what actually arrived — 4 tracked promises on the record. Read straight from the company’s own earnings calls. A promise that slipped stays on this page after it is met.

Premium Polypropylene Yarn Revenue Guidance Cut · 29 July 2026. In the Feb 2026 and May 2026 calls, management indicated approximately INR20 crores to INR25 crores of revenue for the premium polypropylene yarn business in the upcoming financial year. In Jul 2026, management instead guided to about 10 crores for the year, implying a reduction of roughly 50% or more without explaining a change in scope, timing, or assumptions.

🚨 FIBC Expansion Building Timeline Slipped · 29 July 2026. The Feb 2026 and May 2026 calls both stated that the Unit 3 FIBC expansion building was targeted for completion by May 2026. In Jul 2026, management said only the ground floor was completed and that the first and second floors would not be completed until mid-September, indicating a material delay to the previously stated building completion milestone without explanation.

PP Yarn JV Margin Guidance Materially Revised Upward · 4 May 2026. In Nov 2025, management guided EBITDA margins for the premium PP yarn joint venture at 5%-10%, framing it explicitly as an early-stage experiment with high uncertainty. By May 2026, management revised this upward to 15% for both the marketing JV and the manufacturing entity - a 50%-to-200% increase - with no explanation of what changed operationally or commercially to justify such a material improvement in the projected margin profile.

Order Book Described as Extremely Stable Then Followed by Halved Lead Times · 4 May 2026. In Feb 2026, management stated with high conviction that the order book was extremely stable with nothing to be worried about, providing no caveats about any emerging risk. By May 2026, lead times had dropped from 6-8 weeks to 3-4 weeks - a near 50% decline - attributed to geopolitical disruption and cautious customer procurement. While the Iran conflict represents new external information, the dramatic contrast between the emphatic stability assertion in Feb 2026 and the material deterioration just three months later raises questions about management's risk visibility and communication.

Every quote above is taken word for word from the company’s own earnings calls.

Frequently asked questions