Hindustan Zinc Ltd

Price story Before the numbers, the tape. A stock price moves through four repeating seasons: a flat base (stage 1), an advance (2), a top (3), a decline (4). Where the price sits in that cycle frames everything below.

Hindustan Zinc Ltd trades at ₹562, losing momentum at the top and 4 weeks into that stage. That is +1.1% against its own 200-day average. It sits at 43% of a 52-week range of ₹458 to ₹699. On relative strength it is currently behind the NIFTY 500 on a trailing-13-week view (1 week and counting).

Today the stock is losing momentum at the top — week 4 of stage 3, confirmed. At ₹562 it trades +1.1% versus its 200-day average and sits at 43% of its 52-week range (₹458–₹699).

Against the market, two honest reads. Cumulative: over the last 10.5 years the stock moved +245% while the NIFTY 500 moved +284% — behind the index over the full window. Recent form: on a trailing-13-week view the stock is currently behind (1 week and counting; last ahead the week of 2026-08-07) — the ribbon below is that same metric, week by week.

What would end the trend, mechanically: two Friday closes in a row below the 200-day line. That is the exit rule — no debates.

Story check

Hindustan Zinc Ltd's story is not scored yet against the markers our research file set on 17 May 2026. Where it sits in its own cycle: MID_CONTRACTION.

Our read, 17 May 2026. A commodity business that has broken the commodity mould — lowest-cost global zinc producer now compounding volume + cost edge + silver optionality into a multi-year earnings step-change.

From the numbers. PE at 63rd percentile of own history — not cheap, not expensive. The prior cycle: PE trough Sep 2022 at 11.3x, peak Jun 2024 at 27.2x (expansion driven by EPS + multiple). Currently at 19.4x with EPS accelerating…

From the price. Price stage 3, week 4 — above its 200-day line, relative strength falling.

From the research. A commodity business that has broken the commodity mould — lowest-cost global zinc producer now compounding volume + cost edge + silver optionality into a multi-year earnings step-change.

🚨 Where they disagree. PE at 63rd percentile of own history — not cheap, not expensive. The prior cycle: PE trough Sep 2022 at 11.3x, peak Jun 2024 at 27.2x (expansion driven by EPS + multiple). Currently at 19.4x with EPS accelerating strongly (Q4 FY26 EPS Rs 11.91, up 67.6% YoY). The EARNINGS_DISCONNECT label from pe_pb_cycle is accurate — EPS is ripping but PE is contracting, which means price performance has been subdued. At Rs 638/share and TTM EPS Rs 32.74, PE is 19.5x — reasonable for a ROCE 70%+ compounder with a funded capacity expansion.

What is proven. A commodity business that has broken the commodity mould — lowest-cost global zinc producer now compounding volume + cost edge + silver optionality into a multi-year earnings step-change.

What is not proven yet. With EBITDA margin at 54%, the business carries a high fixed-to-variable cost ratio; a sustained 15%+ LME zinc correction would compress PAT disproportionately — management acknowledges Rs 20% PAT sensitivity.

The test written in advance. LME Zinc/Silver Price Correction — LME Zinc/Silver Price Correction LME Zinc weekly settlement + silver spot; if zinc <$2,900 for 4+ weeks, risk escalates by the next result.

The test written in advance. Renewable Energy Systematic Target Misses — Renewable Energy Systematic Target Misses FY27 Q1 RE % disclosure (must show >20% to validate 30-35% FY27 path) by the next result.

The test written in advance. Vedanta Brand Fee / Related Party Overhang — Vedanta Brand Fee / Related Party Overhang Any renegotiation announcement or board approval of fee extension post-FY30 by the next result.

What the company does. FY26 crossed Rs 40,000 crore revenue and Rs 20,000 crore EBITDA for the first time; PAT Rs 13,832 crore (+34% YoY), EBITDA margin 54% — record on nearly every metric. Zinc cost $959/ton (5-year low, below its own Rs 1,000/ton guidance); silver at 45% of profitability with a clear 627t→680t→800t+ ramp; net cash Rs 5,594 crore vs net debt a year ago. 250 kt integrated smelter (FY28-29) + 600-700 kt Phase 2 + fertiliser plant pipeline add Rs 40,000+ crore incremental revenue over 3-4 years — capital funded entirely from internal FCF of Rs 13,337 crore per year.

Lever 3 · Management change — BUILDING. 1.1 million tons mined FY26 (first time ever), 1,048 kt refined. FY27 guided 1,150 kt mined and refined — 10% more volume compounds directly to EBITDA at 54%+ margin. What proves it keeps working: Volume Scale-Up — 1 Million Ton Milestone Crossed. It stops working if LME Zinc weekly settlement + silver spot; if zinc <$2,900 for 4+ weeks, risk escalates.

Lever 5 · Regulatory approval — BUILDING. FY26 zinc COP $959/ton (5-year low, $40/ton below guidance); each 2% RE increase adds ~$1/ton savings — path to 70% RE by FY28 enables ~$25/ton structural cost reduction. What proves it keeps working: Cost Leadership — 5-Year COP Low, RE Transition Underway. It stops working if LME Zinc weekly settlement + silver spot; if zinc <$2,900 for 4+ weeks, risk escalates.

Lever 7 · Consolidation — BUILDING. 627 tons FY26 → 680 tons FY27 guided → 800+ tons when 250 kt smelter online. Silver at 45% of profits with structural demand tailwinds (solar, electronics) and HZL holding 90% India primary market share. What proves it keeps working: Silver Optionality — 45% of Profitability, Structural Ramp. It stops working if LME Zinc weekly settlement + silver spot; if zinc <$2,900 for 4+ weeks, risk escalates.

Lever 1 · Operating leverage — BUILDING. 250 kt smelter (FY28-29, Rs 12,000 crore, double-digit IRR) adds 100 kt zinc + ~120 tons silver + Rs 40,000 crore incremental revenue; fertiliser plant commissioning Q2 FY27 adds Rs 400-450 crore EBITDA. What proves it keeps working: Growth Capex Pipeline — 250 kt Smelter + Fertiliser Plant. It stops working if LME Zinc weekly settlement + silver spot; if zinc <$2,900 for 4+ weeks, risk escalates.

Sources: our stock research file (17 May 2026) · quarterly results through Jun 26 · the company’s own earnings calls. The story check is re-scored every results season; the record below never changes.

Revenue Revenue is the top line: everything the company billed its customers in the period.

Hindustan Zinc Ltd reported ₹13,747 Cr of revenue in the Jun 26 quarter, +76.9% year on year. That is the 4th straight quarter of year-on-year growth. Over 10 years it has compounded at 11.2% a year. The last full year, FY26, came in at ₹40,844 Cr. The last four reported quarters add to ₹46,820 Cr.

Why this happened. 627 tons FY26 → 680 tons FY27 guided → 800+ tons when 250 kt smelter online. Silver at 45% of profits with structural demand tailwinds (solar, electronics) and HZL holding 90% India primary market share.

FY26 revenue came in at ₹40,844 Cr (+19.8% on the year), capping 10 years at 11.2% compound. The latest quarter (Jun 26) printed ₹13,747 Cr, +76.9% year on year — the 4th consecutive quarter of year-over-year growth.

Pace check: the last four quarters averaged +39.3% growth against the decade's 11.2% — the current year is running faster than its own long-run rate.

Acceleration check: trailing-twelve-month revenue grew +38.8% over the last 4 quarters against +25.4%/yr over the last 8 — accelerating; TTM profit +66.6% vs +44.8%/yr — accelerating.

Operating margin Operating margin is what is left of every ₹100 of sales after running the business, before interest and tax. It is the cleanest read on pricing power and cost control.

Hindustan Zinc Ltd's operating margin is 59.0% in the Jun 26 quarter, +9.0 percentage points against the same quarter a year ago. Across 13 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged 44.0% to 56.0%. The current quarter is running above every full year in that window.

Why this happened. The capacity pipeline is the long-duration bull case. Phase 1 (250 kt smelter at Debari) mobilised with engineering finalised — capital ~$2,600/ton with double-digit IRR significantly above industry. Phase 2 (600-700 kt smelter) in commercial process with order placement expected imminently. Together these take capacity toward 2 million tons. The fertiliser plant commissioning in Q2 FY27 is the near-term unlock — Rs 2,000-2,500 crore revenue with Rs 400-450 crore EBITDA. Zinc tailings reprocessing plant (10 MTPA, Q4 FY28) adds another ~100 kt zinc + 25 tons silver from waste streams.

The latest quarter's operating margin is 59.0%, +9.0 pp against the same quarter a year ago. Across 13 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged 44.0%–56.0%.

Why the margin moved: operating margin went +8.9 pp year on year while gross margin went +3.3 pp — the gain came mostly below the gross line: operating leverage, with costs spread over a bigger revenue base.

Net profit Net profit is what survives every cost, interest and tax — the number EPS, dividends and book value all grow from.

Hindustan Zinc Ltd earned ₹5,469 Cr of net profit in the Jun 26 quarter, +144.8% year on year. It is the 4th consecutive quarter of growth. Full-year FY26 profit was ₹13,832 Cr. The 10-year compound rate is 5.4%. That is 39.8% of the quarter's revenue. The same quarter a year earlier earned ₹2,234 Cr.

Jun 26 profit was ₹5,469 Cr, +144.8% year on year — the 4th consecutive quarter of growth. On the full year, FY26 printed ₹13,832 Cr (+33.6%), and the 10-year compound rate is 5.4%.

Why profit moved: revenue contributed +76.9% and the margin +9.0 pp — the quarter was margin-led: most of the profit growth came from keeping more of each sale.

Pace comparison, last four quarters: profit +68.1% vs revenue +39.3%. Profit is growing faster than sales — fixed costs are being spread over a bigger base, and each extra rupee of revenue drops more to the bottom line.

Cash flow — the router The P&L says what was earned; the cash-flow statement says what actually arrived. Operating cash flow (CFO) against profit is the cleanest lie detector in the accounts.

Over the last 3 fiscal years 139% of Hindustan Zinc Ltd's reported profit arrived as operating cash — the cash follows the profit. In FY26 that was ₹17,008 Cr of operating cash against ₹13,832 Cr of profit. After ₹5,922 Cr of capital spending, ₹11,086 Cr was left as free cash.

FY26: operating cash of ₹17,008 Cr against reported profit of ₹13,832 Cr, leaving free cash of ₹11,086 Cr after ₹5,922 Cr of capital spending. Across the last 3 fiscal years the conversion rate is 139% of profit.

Cash-flow readings here are annual — that is the resolution our series carries, so this section moves once a year.

Why conversion sits at 139%: the cash cycle held roughly steady between FY21 and FY26 — so conversion tracks profitability rather than the cycle.

Router verdict: no single sink dominates — the next section checks both the working-capital cycle and the capital spending.

Where the cash goes Working capital is the cash tied up between paying suppliers and getting paid: debtor days (customers owe), inventory days (stock waits), and the cash conversion cycle (the whole loop, in days of sales).

Hindustan Zinc Ltd's cash conversion cycle runs 4 days in FY26, down from 7 days in FY21. Capital spending ran ₹14,385 Cr over the last 3 years. At FY26 sales of ₹40,844 Cr each day of that cycle holds about ₹112 Cr, so roughly ₹448 Cr sits inside the business at any moment.

FY26: debtors at 4 days (an asset-light business — no inventory to speak of) — for a full cycle of 4 days, tighter than FY21's 7.

In money terms: at FY26 sales of ₹40,844 Cr, each day of the cycle holds about ₹112 Cr — so the 4-day loop keeps roughly ₹448 Cr sitting inside the business at any moment.

On the investment side: capital spending of ₹14,385 Cr over the last 3 fiscal years against ₹10,898 Cr of depreciation — building somewhat ahead of wear-and-tear. Capital work-in-progress stands at ₹3,409 Cr (FY26) — capacity paid for but not yet earning.

The synthesis: neither the cycle nor the build-out is hoarding the cash — the machine is reasonably clean.

Return on capital Return on capital employed (ROCE) is the profit the whole business earns on all the money in it — equity and debt together. It is the single best test of whether growth creates value or just size.

Hindustan Zinc Ltd earns a ROCE of 70% in FY26. That is up from a trough of 20% in FY14. A return-on-invested-capital spread against the cost of capital is not computable from what is held here. The wiring behind it is 33.9% net margin on 0.96× asset turns.

FY26 ROCE is 70%, recovered from a FY14 trough of 20% — the full ladder below shows the fall and the climb, undoctored.

Why the return is what it is — the wiring (FY26): 33.9% net margin × 0.96× asset turns × 1.87× balance-sheet leverage ≈ 60.9% on equity. Margin is doing the heavy lifting; leverage is a meaningful part of the equation.

The quarterly return curves and the return-on-invested-capital overlay, which only the second data source carries, are not drawn on this page: its two data sources disagree by up to 3.3% on reported income across 15 comparable periods. A figure two sources cannot agree on is not drawn — the gap is a decision, not missing data.

Debt Debt-to-equity says how much of the business is funded by borrowings; interest cover says how many times operating profit pays the interest bill. Low and high, respectively, is the safe corner.

Hindustan Zinc Ltd carries ₹8,728 Cr of borrowings against ₹22,629 Cr of equity in FY26, a debt-to-equity of 0.39. Operating profit covers the interest bill 25×. Over 5 years borrowings went from ₹7,201 Cr to ₹8,728 Cr. Capital spending ran ₹14,385 Cr across the last 3 of those years.

FY26: borrowings of ₹8,728 Cr against equity of ₹22,629 Cr — a debt-to-equity of 0.39. Operating profit covers the interest bill 25×. Over 5 years borrowings went from ₹7,201 Cr to ₹8,728 Cr while capital spending ran ₹14,385 Cr in just the last 3 — part of the build-out is riding on borrowed money.

The total-debt and debt-to-equity series, which only the second data source carries, are not drawn on this page: its two data sources disagree by up to 3.3% on reported income across 15 comparable periods. A figure two sources cannot agree on is not drawn — the gap is a decision, not missing data.

Ownership Who owns the stock, quarter by quarter: promoters (the controlling owners), foreign and domestic institutions, and the public. Steady accumulation by people close to the numbers is a signal; a quiet register is also an answer.

Promoters cut 4.2 points of Hindustan Zinc Ltd over 8 quarters, the biggest move on the register. That takes promoters to 60.7% of the company. Domestic institutions moved +2.0 points over the same window, to 5.0%. The register is read on the four disclosed classes only; nothing is inferred between filings.

Why this happened. Operating leverage from volume is the core engine. Each additional kilotonne of refined metal at current prices (~$3,200/ton zinc + silver premium) drops straight into EBITDA at the incremental margin. FY26 debottlenecking at Chanderiya and Dariba added 21,000 tons refined capacity, now stabilised. FY27 volume of 1,150 kt is achievable on existing infrastructure — no major capex needed. This is pure throughput compounding.

The register over the last two years — Promoters: −4.2 points over 8 quarters to 60.7%; Domestic institutions: +2.0 points over 8 quarters to 5.0%; Foreign institutions: +1.5 points over 8 quarters to 2.2%.

🚨 Why the register moved: promoters drove it (−4.2 points), absorbed on the other side by domestic institutions (+2.0 points) — distribution into the market’s bid.

Safety line The Z-score estimates how far a company sits from balance-sheet distress — above roughly 3 is safe, below roughly 1.8 is the danger zone. It was built for manufacturers, so it is not applied to banks and lenders.

Hindustan Zinc Ltd: the Z-score is not available for this stock, so we say so rather than invent one. It is a distance-to-distress estimate from the balance sheet, not a forecast of failure. The debt, cash-flow and return sections above carry the balance-sheet evidence this page does hold, and each of them states its own reporting date.

Why this happened. Cost leadership is a durable structural advantage, not a cyclical windfall. FY26 achieved it through: 64% domestic coal in Q4 (vs 53% FY26 average), improved byproduct realization (sulfuric acid, scrap), and operating leverage from volume. The RE transition adds a second layer: FY27 target 30-35%, FY28 target 70%. If achieved, the incremental $25/ton savings on ~1.1 million tons = ~$27.5 million or ~Rs 230 crore annual EBITDA benefit. The risk: RE targets have been missed three times running.

The safety line in one sentence: the Z-score is not available for this stock, so we say so rather than invent one.

Valuation P/E is the price of ₹1 of annual profit: how many rupees the market pays for each rupee the company earns in a year.

Hindustan Zinc Ltd trades at 13.9× P/E, near the bottom of its own range — cheaper only 28% of the time. Its long-run median P/E is 17.2×, measured across 10.5 years of weekly readings. This places the multiple against the stock’s own record, and says nothing about what the business is worth.

Today's P/E of 13.9× is near the bottom of its own range — cheaper only 28% of the time, against a long-run median of 17.2× measured over 10.5 years of weekly readings. This is a comparison against the stock's own history — not a claim about what it is worth.

Why the multiple sits where it does: over the past year annual EPS moved +33.6% against a +31.7% price move — earnings outran the price, pushing the multiple DOWN its own range.

The price move, decomposed: over 3y, of the +21.1%/yr price move, ~+21.9%/yr came from earnings growth and ~−0.8 pp from the multiple (roughly flat). The split is the honest approximate (price return minus earnings growth); it makes the rally itself visible instead of hiding it behind the percentile.

Put together: the multiple is low against its own past, so the story rests on the earnings line underneath it, not the multiple.

The PEG ratio and its quarterly curve, which only the second data source carries, are not drawn on this page: its two data sources disagree by up to 3.3% on reported income across 15 comparable periods. A figure two sources cannot agree on is not drawn — the gap is a decision, not missing data.

Stage: Consistent Every business sits somewhere on a fundamental arc, and this page names the spot before anything else. The last twelve quarters of revenue, profit and EPS growth — plus the return the business earns on its capital — are read as curves: Deteriorating (the curves are falling), Turning around (a trough has just formed and the last few quarters lift off it), Improving (the climb off the trough is sustained), Consistent (steadily positive with healthy returns), Topping out (still high but decelerating from the peak). When the curves genuinely disagree the read is Mixed; too little history is No read. CAGR (compound annual growth rate) is the smooth yearly pace that turns the starting value into the latest one — the fairest way to compare growth across different time spans. Read the columns together: if the 1-year number towers over the 10-year, recent growth is running hotter than the long-run trend. A dash means that window is not held, or the base year was a loss (where a growth rate is not meaningful).

Hindustan Zinc Ltd reads as consistent on its fundamental arc. Consistent — revenue, profit and EPS growth have stayed positive through the window, with ROCE at 70.0% and holding. The read is built from 8 quarters across 4 curves, on partial evidence.

Why it matters: steady curves with healthy returns are the compounding setup — the risk is the price, not the business.

Return readings here are annual, not quarterly — read as level and direction only; they can confirm the growth curves but never drive the stage on their own.

A partial read: at least one curve is short, or the returns curve is not the computed quarterly series — hold the stage word a little more loosely.

4-Factor Sector Score

75.2/100 — rank 1 of 3 in Metals · 79% evidence confidence

Hindustan Zinc Ltd scores 75.2 out of 100 against the 3 companies it is compared with in Metals, ranking 1. Balanced evidence: keep at normal research priority and require another comparable period before raising conviction.

The four contributions add to the total exactly: 34.1 + 22 + 10.7 + 8.4 = 75.2. This is the SAME number shown on the sector comparison — it is computed once, for the whole peer set, and read here.

What would change it: The read weakens if profit growth turns negative or margin improvement reverses while sector-relative strength deteriorates.

Said versus delivered

What Hindustan Zinc Ltd's management promised, set against what actually arrived — 4 tracked promises on the record. Read straight from the company’s own earnings calls. A promise that slipped stays on this page after it is met.

🚨 Hot Acid Leaching Commissioning Delay · 24 April 2026. In the Oct 2025 call, management guided commissioning of the lead and silver recovery plant using hot acid leaching technology by Q4 FY26. In the Apr 2026 call, this has slipped to Q2 FY27, a delay of at least two quarters. The justification offered — 'first-of-its-kind project in India' — is generic and cites no specific new technical or regulatory development to explain the slippage, which is material given silver's 45% contribution to overall profitability and the project's role in unlocking incremental lead and silver recovery. Earlier call (Oct 2025): “lead, silver recovery plant with hot acid leaching technology by quarter 4 FY26”. Later call (Apr 2026): “Given its complexity as a first-of-its-kind project in India, commissioning is now expected in Q2 FY27”.

🚨 Systematic Renewable Energy Target Misses · 24 April 2026. Both prior calls guided FY26 to exit at 25% renewable energy, and the Jan 2026 call explicitly guided FY27 RE consumption at 35-40%. The Apr 2026 call reveals FY26 actually closed at just 18% — missing the guided exit rate by 7 percentage points — and now lowers the FY27 target to 30-35%, a 5-point downgrade from the Jan 2026 guidance, with no explanation offered for either miss or the revision. Given management's own stated cost benefit of approximately $1/ton per 2% increase in renewable energy, this repeated and unexplained slippage has direct implications for the cost of production trajectory that management has built its investment thesis around. Later call (Apr 2026): “FY26 closed at around 18% renewable energy. For the full year FY27, we should be between 30% and 35%.”

Roaster Capacity Reduction · 19 January 2026. Management consistently reported the capacity of the new Debari roaster at 160,000 tons per annum in both the July and October 2025 calls. However, in the January 2026 call, they stated the commissioned capacity is 150,000 tons, representing an unexplained 10,000-ton (approx. 6%) reduction in the asset's capability. Earlier call (Oct 2025): “During the second quarter, we commissioned a 160,000 tons per annum roaster at Debari”. Later call (Jan 2026): “Earlier this year, we completed the commissioning of a 150,000 tons per annum roaster at Debari”.

Hedge Price Discrepancy · 19 January 2026. In the October 2025 call, management reported their silver hedge position had an average price of $37 per troy ounce. In the January 2026 call, they retroactively claimed these same hedges (executed in June/July 2025) were done at $39, a material $2 discrepancy per ounce on the reported book. Earlier call (Oct 2025): “And silver, we are hedged by 131 tons with an average price of $37 per troy ounce.” Later call (Jan 2026): “The FY26 hedges were done at a price of $39 in the month of June and July.”

Every quote above is taken word for word from the company’s own earnings calls.

Frequently asked questions