Gujarat Ambuja Exports Ltd (GAEL) — share price & stock analysis

Market cap

₹7,453 Cr

P/E

24.3×

ROE

9.8%

vs own 10-yr valuation

66th pctile

Book value / share

₹71.8

EPS (TTM)

₹6.71

10-yr median P/E

19.5×

Revenue (FY26)

₹5,729 Cr

Profit after tax (FY26)

₹304 Cr

Weinstein stage

Stage 2 (27 weeks)

Data as of

1 July 2026

4 of the 6 things we track are currently moving the right way — nearly everything is pulling in the same direction.

Where the levels actually stand: ROCE 13% — decent; effectively no debt; margins mid-band. Momentum says which way things are moving; these say where they are.

Read this number for what it is: it measures the DIRECTION of change, not the quality of the business. A mediocre business getting better scores high here; a great one having a soft quarter scores low. Profit, sales and margins count double.

The market has pre-paid for growth that hasn’t arrived yet

Since Jun 2016, the stock is up 928% while earnings per share grew 195%. The difference is re-rating — investors paying more for the same rupee of profit.pricettm_eps

That works until it doesn’t: from here, earnings have to do the lifting, because the multiple has already done its part.

Today’s P/E of 24.3× is the middle of its own range against its own 10-year history (66th percentile) — neither a bargain nor a stretch, by its own standards.pe_ratio

Price is the weekly close (₹). EPS is trailing-twelve-month profit per share, anchored on Screener's own snapshots; between snapshots it is filled from price ÷ P/E (an exact identity), and any fill straying more than 18% from the neighbouring snapshots is dropped rather than shown. The lower panel is the P/E — what the market pays per rupee of profit; the dotted line is its long-run median (19.5×).

An uptrend that has held for 27 weeks

Every stock cycles through the same four seasons — a flat base (stage 1), an advance (2), a top (3), a decline (4). Right now this one is in Stage 2: advancing, 27 weeks in, confirmed.stage

The price sits above its rising 200-day average (₹139 today) — trends like this persist more often than they reverse, which is why the system rides them instead of guessing the top.dma_200

Beating NIFTY 500 for 35 weeks — relative strength is the market’s live opinion, and right now it is on this stock’s side.rs_mansfield

What would end it: two Friday closes in a row below the 200-day line. That is the house exit rule — mechanical, no debates.dma_200

A lumpy ride — no clean trend in profits

Over 15 years, sales went from ₹1,953 Cr to ₹5,729 Cr (about 7% a year), and profit from ₹93.0 Cr to ₹304 Cr.revenuenet_profit

Sales grew 16% last quarter — the 4th straight quarter of growth

Mar 26 sales were ₹1,467 Cr, up 16% on the same quarter last year.revenue

That makes 4 quarters of growth in a row — this is a trend, not a blip.revenue

Margins are widening — 5% → 13% in a year

Of every ₹100 of sales, the company keeps ₹13.3 as operating profit (a year ago it kept ₹4.9).opm_pct

The gross margin moved the same way (22% → 33%), so this is about input costs and pricing power — the raw-material equation improved.gpm_pctopm_pct

Profit exploded 322% — mostly from keeping more of each sale

Mar 26 profit after tax was ₹135 Cr, up 322% year on year.net_profit

The profits are real — they turn into cash

Over the last 5 profitable years, the business reported ₹1,704 Cr of profit and collected ₹1,619 Cr of operating cash — about 95% conversion.operating_cash_flownet_profit

When cash tracks profit this closely, the earnings need no asterisk.

The cash cycle is stable

One rupee now takes about 84 days to go out the door as materials and come back as collected cash — down from 90 days the year before.cash_conversion_cycle

The biggest mover: inventory moving faster off the shelf (79 → 69 days).inventory_days

Building hard — new capacity is under construction

The productive asset base has gone from ₹299 Cr (FY11) to ₹1,185 Cr, with another ₹443 Cr of capacity under construction right now.fixed_assetscwip

Work-in-progress is 37% of the existing asset base — that is a serious bet on future demand. Capacity like this shows up in sales with a lag; it is tomorrow’s growth being paid for today.cwip

The build is bigger than the cash engine: investing outflows (₹990 Cr) exceeded operating cash (₹782 Cr) over the last 3 years — the difference comes from debt or shareholders.investing_cash_flowoperating_cash_flow

Almost no debt — this company cannot be killed by a bad year

For every ₹100 shareholders have put in (and left in), the company has borrowed ₹13 — total borrowings have grown from ₹232 Cr to ₹441 Cr over the window.borrowings

Every ₹100 kept in the business earns ₹13 — decent, not special

Return on capital employed is 13.0% (a year ago: 11.0%). This is the single best test of business quality: what the company earns on the money it keeps.roce_pct

Institutions bought the story, then started backing away

Promoters hold 63.8%, essentially unchanged. Foreign funds own 2.2%, domestic funds 0.8%.promoters_pctfiis_pctdiis_pct

The numbers earn a deeper study — and watch the one thing that matters

The numbers lean positive, and the price already assumes the good news continues.

Best thing in the data: profit rising (₹32.0 Cr → ₹135 Cr).net_profit

Biggest worry: free cash flow falling (₹5.0 Cr → ₹−173 Cr).operating_cash_flow

One dissent worth hearing: our valuation lens reads negative — “its fair-value math says the price sits about 20% above what the numbers justify”. When a lens disagrees with the committee, it is usually pointing at the thing that breaks first.

Machine-written research from Screener data — every number traces to its source column. Sector Alpha is not a SEBI-registered investment adviser; nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell. Not investment advice.

Straight answers from the data