Centum Electronics Ltd

Price story Before the numbers, the tape. A stock price moves through four repeating seasons: a flat base (stage 1), an advance (2), a top (3), a decline (4). Where the price sits in that cycle frames everything below.

Centum Electronics Ltd trades at ₹3,539, in a confirmed uptrend and 25 weeks into that stage. That is +17.4% against its own 200-day average. It sits at 82% of a 52-week range of ₹2,093 to ₹3,852. On relative strength it has been ahead of the NIFTY 500 on a trailing-13-week view for 2 straight weeks.

Today the stock is in a confirmed uptrend — week 25 of stage 2, confirmed. At ₹3,539 it trades +17.4% versus its 200-day average and sits at 82% of its 52-week range (₹2,093–₹3,852).

Against the market, two honest reads. Cumulative: over the last 10.4 years the stock moved +589% while the NIFTY 500 moved +276% — ahead of the index over the full window. Recent form: on a trailing-13-week view the stock has been ahead for 2 straight weeks — the ribbon below is that same metric, week by week.

What would end the trend, mechanically: two Friday closes in a row below the 200-day line. That is the exit rule — no debates.

Story check

Centum Electronics Ltd's story is not scored yet against the markers our research file set on 17 May 2026. Where it sits in its own cycle: NEAR_TROUGH_RECOVERY. Still open: Liabilities exceed assets by Rs 100+ Cr; court-dependent July 2026 deadline carries slippage risk; any further impairments extend consolidated negative ROE beyond FY27.

Our read, 17 May 2026. A high-quality standalone India defence-ESDM franchise masked by three years of overseas capital destruction — restructuring complete, AESA radar validates systems integrator ambition.

From the numbers. PE cycle at 48th percentile of 10Y range — not classically cheap, but the current PE is inflated by near-zero consolidated earnings (EPS FY26: -35.15 consolidated). PE cycle label FALLING_KNIFE correctly captures the…

From the price. Price stage 2, week 25 — above its 200-day line, relative strength falling.

From the research. A high-quality standalone India defence-ESDM franchise masked by three years of overseas capital destruction — restructuring complete, AESA radar validates systems integrator ambition.

🚨 Where they disagree. PE cycle at 48th percentile of 10Y range — not classically cheap, but the current PE is inflated by near-zero consolidated earnings (EPS FY26: -35.15 consolidated). PE cycle label FALLING_KNIFE correctly captures the near-zero earnings environment. The cycle has traversed 4 full peaks/troughs since Mar 2016 with peak PEs of 233-306x and troughs of 9-81x. FY26 standalone PAT Rs 100 Cr implies standalone PE of ~44x at current MCap — premium but defensible for a defence-ESDM compounder with 25-30% CAGR guidance. FII buying from 0.37% to 2.37% and DII accumulation from 6.34% to 21.51% signal institutional conviction in recovery thesis.

What is proven. A high-quality standalone India defence-ESDM franchise masked by three years of overseas capital destruction — restructuring complete, AESA radar validates systems integrator ambition.

What is not proven yet. Liabilities exceed assets by Rs 100+ Cr; court-dependent July 2026 deadline carries slippage risk; any further impairments extend consolidated negative ROE beyond FY27.

The test written in advance. France judicial reorganization — additional impairments / extended timeline — France judicial reorganization — additional impairments / extended timeline Q1 FY27 (Jul 2026) — France deconsolidation confirmation + Q1 discontinued ops loss < Q4's Rs 33 Cr by the next result.

The test written in advance. Management guidance credibility — 5 documented consistency failures — Management guidance credibility — 5 documented consistency failures Q1 FY27 standalone EBITDA margin — must show ≥13% to validate FY27 guidance trajectory by the next result.

The test written in advance. Promoter holding decline — 11.9pp in 3 years — Promoter holding decline — 11.9pp in 3 years Mar 2027 shareholding — any stabilization or reversal of promoter decline would be strongly positive by the next result.

What the company does. FY26 standalone: revenue +25%, EBITDA +28% (12.42% margin), PAT +63%, ROCE 21.16% vs 12.40% — operating leverage visible on the India core. Overseas drag amputated: Canada discontinued Q4 FY26, France judicial reorganization initiated March 2026 with July 2026 completion target — Rs 203 Cr exceptional charges already recognised standalone. AESA radar win (HAL, Rs 570 Cr+ lifecycle, Rs 67 Cr dev phase) + standalone order book Rs 1,645 Cr (+23%) validates transition from component supplier to radar system integrator.

Lever 6 · Order-book wins — BUILDING. Rs 570 Cr+ lifecycle value AESA radar for HAL LCA — first full turnkey radar system win; development phase Rs 67 Cr over 3 years, production through FY31. What proves it keeps working: AESA Radar System Win — HAL LCA Platform. It stops working if Q1 FY27 (Jul 2026) — France deconsolidation confirmation + Q1 discontinued ops loss < Q4's Rs 33 Cr.

Lever 12 · New product launch — BUILDING. Canada discontinued Q4 FY26; France judicial reorganization July 2026 exit target — consolidated PAT turns positive as Rs 39+ Cr annual drag eliminated. What proves it keeps working: Overseas Restructuring — Discontinued Operations Elimination. It stops working if Q1 FY27 (Jul 2026) — France deconsolidation confirmation + Q1 discontinued ops loss < Q4's Rs 33 Cr.

Lever 2 · Value-added mix — BUILDING. BTS >50% of order book by value at 20%+ EBITDA margins vs EMS at 9-11%; blended standalone margin on trajectory to 13-15% as BTS revenue share grows. What proves it keeps working: BTS Mix Shift Driving Margin Expansion. It stops working if Q1 FY27 (Jul 2026) — France deconsolidation confirmation + Q1 discontinued ops loss < Q4's Rs 33 Cr.

Lever 14 · A bigger market to sell into — BUILDING. 65 part numbers qualified, serial production initiated Q3 FY26; Rs 10 Cr FY26 base toward Rs 30 Cr annual run-rate within 2-3 years at 20-25%+ ROCE (capital-light model). What proves it keeps working: Semiconductor Equipment Segment Ramp. It stops working if Q1 FY27 (Jul 2026) — France deconsolidation confirmation + Q1 discontinued ops loss < Q4's Rs 33 Cr.

Sources: our stock research file (17 May 2026) · quarterly results through Jun 26 · the company’s own earnings calls. The story check is re-scored every results season; the record below never changes.

Revenue Revenue is the top line: everything the company billed its customers in the period.

Centum Electronics Ltd reported ₹204 Cr of revenue in the Jun 26 quarter, +14.0% year on year. That is the 2nd straight quarter of year-on-year growth. Over 10 years it has compounded at 9.0% a year. The last full year, FY26, came in at ₹953 Cr. The last four reported quarters add to ₹1,058 Cr.

Why this happened. The AESA radar win from HAL for the Light Combat Aircraft represents the most significant strategic inflection in Centum's history. Unlike prior BTS contracts (subsystems and components), this is a full turnkey radar system — scope covers complete radar delivery and platform integration. Total lifecycle value exceeds Rs 570 Cr. Development phase is Rs 67 Cr over 3 years (currently underway). Production phase runs through FY31. At 20%+ BTS margins, this programme alone adds meaningful PAT. More importantly, it validates Centum's claim to the integrated systems tier where it will increasingly compete with its own customers (HAL, DRDO, BEL) — a natural ecosystem evolution but one that requires…

FY26 revenue came in at ₹953 Cr (+28.8% on the year), capping 10 years at 9.0% compound. The latest quarter (Jun 26) printed ₹204 Cr, +14.0% year on year — the 2nd consecutive quarter of year-over-year growth.

Pace check: the last four quarters averaged +8.7% growth against the decade's 9.0% — the current year is running in line with its own long-run rate.

Acceleration check: trailing-twelve-month revenue grew +8.1% over the last 4 quarters against −1.4%/yr over the last 8 — accelerating.

Operating margin Operating margin is what is left of every ₹100 of sales after running the business, before interest and tax. It is the cleanest read on pricing power and cost control.

Centum Electronics Ltd's operating margin is 12.0% in the Jun 26 quarter, −4.0 percentage points against the same quarter a year ago. Across 13 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged 3.0% to 21.0%. The current quarter sits inside that band.

Why this happened. BTS (Build-to-Spec) revenue grew 37% in FY26; BTS is now >50% of the standalone order book by value (vs 42% EMS). BTS margin profile is approximately 20%+ EBITDA vs EMS 9-11%. As BTS proportion of revenue rises with execution cycles, blended standalone margin trends toward the 13-15% guidance band. FY26 standalone margin came in at 12.42% — below the originally stated 13-15% standalone band due to EMS product mix headwinds (better-value programmes deferred to FY27). Management expects FY27 margin recovery as deferred programmes execute. The 14.22% consolidated continuing operations margin in FY26 (vs 12.21% prior year) shows the trajectory when overseas drag is excluded.

The latest quarter's operating margin is 12.0%, −4.0 pp against the same quarter a year ago. Across 13 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged 3.0%–21.0%.

🚨 Why the margin moved: operating margin went −4.2 pp year on year while gross margin went −5.3 pp — the loss came mostly from the gross line: input costs and pricing.

Net profit Net profit is what survives every cost, interest and tax — the number EPS, dividends and book value all grow from.

Centum Electronics Ltd earned ₹106 Cr of net profit in the Jun 26 quarter, +2,020.0% year on year. The full FY26 year was a loss of ₹52.0 Cr. That is 52.0% of the quarter's revenue. The same quarter a year earlier earned ₹5.0 Cr. 5 of the last 12 reported quarters were loss-making.

Jun 26 profit was ₹106 Cr, +2,020.0% year on year. On the full year, FY26 printed ₹−52.0 Cr (null).

Cash flow — the router The P&L says what was earned; the cash-flow statement says what actually arrived. Operating cash flow (CFO) against profit is the cleanest lie detector in the accounts.

Over the last 3 fiscal years 746% of Centum Electronics Ltd's reported profit arrived as operating cash — the cash follows the profit. In FY26 that was ₹60.0 Cr of operating cash against ₹−52.0 Cr of profit. After ₹−72.0 Cr of capital spending, ₹132 Cr was left as free cash.

FY26: operating cash of ₹60.0 Cr against reported profit of ₹−52.0 Cr, leaving free cash of ₹132 Cr after ₹−72.0 Cr of capital spending. Across the last 3 fiscal years the conversion rate is 746% of profit.

Cash-flow readings here are annual — that is the resolution our series carries, so this section moves once a year.

Why conversion sits at 746%: the cash cycle stretched 47 days between FY21 and FY26 — more of each rupee of profit waits inside the cycle before arriving.

Router verdict: no single sink dominates — the next section checks both the working-capital cycle and the capital spending.

Where the cash goes Working capital is the cash tied up between paying suppliers and getting paid: debtor days (customers owe), inventory days (stock waits), and the cash conversion cycle (the whole loop, in days of sales).

Centum Electronics Ltd's cash conversion cycle runs 234 days in FY26, up from 187 days in FY21. Capital spending ran ₹−23.0 Cr over the last 3 years. At FY26 sales of ₹953 Cr each day of that cycle holds about ₹2.6 Cr, so roughly ₹611 Cr sits inside the business at any moment.

FY26: debtors at 115 days, inventory at 268 days — roughly 8.8 months of stock waiting to sell; that is where the cash sits while it waits — for a full cycle of 234 days, looser than FY21's 187.

The full loop: cash goes out to suppliers and production on day 0; stock waits 268 days to sell; customers pay about 115 days after that; and suppliers themselves are paid at 149 days — netting out to the 234-day cycle.

In money terms: at FY26 sales of ₹953 Cr, each day of the cycle holds about ₹2.6 Cr — so the 234-day loop keeps roughly ₹611 Cr sitting inside the business at any moment.

On the investment side: capital spending of ₹−23.0 Cr over the last 3 fiscal years against ₹85.0 Cr of depreciation — spending at or below maintenance level. Capital work-in-progress stands at ₹0.0 Cr (FY26) — capacity paid for but not yet earning.

The synthesis: neither the cycle nor the build-out is hoarding the cash — the machine is reasonably clean.

Return on capital Return on capital employed (ROCE) is the profit the whole business earns on all the money in it — equity and debt together. It is the single best test of whether growth creates value or just size.

Centum Electronics Ltd earns a ROCE of 26% in FY26. That is up from a trough of 1% in FY18. A return-on-invested-capital spread against the cost of capital is not computable from what is held here. The wiring behind it is −5.5% net margin on 0.73× asset turns.

FY26 ROCE is 26%, recovered from a FY18 trough of 1% — the full ladder below shows the fall and the climb, undoctored.

Why the return is what it is — the wiring (FY26): −5.5% net margin × 0.73× asset turns × 3.80× balance-sheet leverage ≈ −15.3% on equity. Margin does its share; leverage is a meaningful part of the equation.

The quarterly return curves and the return-on-invested-capital overlay, which only the second data source carries, are not drawn on this page: its two data sources disagree by up to 40% on reported income across 14 comparable periods. A figure two sources cannot agree on is not drawn — the gap is a decision, not missing data.

Debt Debt-to-equity says how much of the business is funded by borrowings; interest cover says how many times operating profit pays the interest bill. Low and high, respectively, is the safe corner.

Centum Electronics Ltd carries ₹123 Cr of borrowings against ₹343 Cr of equity in FY26, a debt-to-equity of 0.36. Operating profit covers the interest bill 8×. Over 5 years borrowings went from ₹374 Cr to ₹123 Cr. Capital spending ran ₹−23.0 Cr across the last 3 of those years.

FY26: borrowings of ₹123 Cr against equity of ₹343 Cr — a debt-to-equity of 0.36. Operating profit covers the interest bill 8×. Over 5 years borrowings went from ₹374 Cr to ₹123 Cr while capital spending ran ₹−23.0 Cr in just the last 3 — the build-out is being paid for out of cash, not debt.

The total-debt and debt-to-equity series, which only the second data source carries, are not drawn on this page: its two data sources disagree by up to 40% on reported income across 14 comparable periods. A figure two sources cannot agree on is not drawn — the gap is a decision, not missing data.

Ownership Who owns the stock, quarter by quarter: promoters (the controlling owners), foreign and domestic institutions, and the public. Steady accumulation by people close to the numbers is a signal; a quiet register is also an answer.

Promoters cut 11.9 points of Centum Electronics Ltd over 8 quarters, the biggest move on the register. That takes promoters to 46.8% of the company. Domestic institutions moved +11.5 points over the same window, to 19.7%. The register is read on the four disclosed classes only; nothing is inferred between filings.

The register over the last two years — Promoters: −11.9 points over 8 quarters to 46.8%; Domestic institutions: +11.5 points over 8 quarters to 19.7%; Foreign institutions: +2.9 points over 8 quarters to 3.3%.

🚨 Why the register moved: promoters drove it (−11.9 points), absorbed on the other side by domestic institutions (+11.5 points) — distribution into the market’s bid.

Safety line The Z-score estimates how far a company sits from balance-sheet distress — above roughly 3 is safe, below roughly 1.8 is the danger zone. It was built for manufacturers, so it is not applied to banks and lenders.

Centum Electronics Ltd: the Z-score is not available for this stock, so we say so rather than invent one. It is a distance-to-distress estimate from the balance sheet, not a forecast of failure. The debt, cash-flow and return sections above carry the balance-sheet evidence this page does hold, and each of them states its own reporting date.

The safety line in one sentence: the Z-score is not available for this stock, so we say so rather than invent one.

Valuation P/E is the price of ₹1 of annual profit: how many rupees the market pays for each rupee the company earns in a year.

Centum Electronics Ltd trades at 59.7× P/E, mid-range by its own standards (60th percentile). Its long-run median P/E is 37.5×, measured across 10.4 years of weekly readings. This places the multiple against the stock’s own record, and says nothing about what the business is worth.

Today's P/E of 59.7× is mid-range by its own standards (60th percentile), against a long-run median of 37.5× measured over 10.4 years of weekly readings. This is a comparison against the stock's own history — not a claim about what it is worth.

🚨 Why the multiple sits where it does: over the past year annual EPS moved −1,995.2% against a +42.4% price move — the price outran earnings, pushing the multiple UP its own range.

The price move, decomposed: over 5y, of the +49.8%/yr price move, ~+34.8%/yr came from earnings growth and ~+15.0 pp from the multiple (expanding); over 10y, of the +21.3%/yr price move, ~+12.6%/yr came from earnings growth and ~+8.7 pp from the multiple (expanding). The split is the honest approximate (price return minus earnings growth); it makes the rally itself visible instead of hiding it behind the percentile.

Put together: the multiple is unremarkable against its own past, so the story rests on the earnings line underneath it, not the multiple.

A quarterly PEG curve, which only the second data source carries, is not drawn on this page: its two data sources disagree by up to 40% on reported income across 14 comparable periods. A figure two sources cannot agree on is not drawn — the gap is a decision, not missing data.

Stage: No read Every business sits somewhere on a fundamental arc, and this page names the spot before anything else. The last twelve quarters of revenue, profit and EPS growth — plus the return the business earns on its capital — are read as curves: Deteriorating (the curves are falling), Turning around (a trough has just formed and the last few quarters lift off it), Improving (the climb off the trough is sustained), Consistent (steadily positive with healthy returns), Topping out (still high but decelerating from the peak). When the curves genuinely disagree the read is Mixed; too little history is No read. CAGR (compound annual growth rate) is the smooth yearly pace that turns the starting value into the latest one — the fairest way to compare growth across different time spans. Read the columns together: if the 1-year number towers over the 10-year, recent growth is running hotter than the long-run trend. A dash means that window is not held, or the base year was a loss (where a growth rate is not meaningful).

Centum Electronics Ltd reads as no read on its fundamental arc. Under eight usable quarters on the growth trio — not enough history for an honest trajectory read. The read is built from 8 quarters across 2 curves, on partial evidence.

Why it matters: with too little history, an honest page says so instead of guessing a trajectory.

The latest quarter’s profit carries a one-off item larger than the operating base, so the profit curve is shown but does not vote in the stage call.

One or more growth curves carry a base-effect spike — a large year-on-year move off a near-zero or loss-making comparable quarter. Those spikes are capped before the classifier reads the trajectory, and shown pinned on the chart, so a single distorted quarter does not drive the stage call.

Return readings here are annual, not quarterly — read as level and direction only; they can confirm the growth curves but never drive the stage on their own.

Fewer than eight usable quarters on the growth curves — this page will not guess a trajectory from a stub of history.

4-Factor Sector Score

52.3/100 — rank 2 of 2 in EMS · 72% evidence confidence

Centum Electronics Ltd scores 52.3 out of 100 against the 2 companies it is compared with in EMS, ranking 2. Balanced evidence: keep at normal research priority and require another comparable period before raising conviction.

The four contributions add to the total exactly: 20.9 + 16.4 + 10 + 5 = 52.3. This is the SAME number shown on the sector comparison — it is computed once, for the whole peer set, and read here.

What would change it: The read weakens if profit growth turns negative or margin improvement reverses while sector-relative strength deteriorates.

Said versus delivered

What Centum Electronics Ltd's management promised, set against what actually arrived — 4 tracked promises on the record. Read straight from the company’s own earnings calls. A promise that slipped stays on this page after it is met.

FY27 Revenue Growth Target Narrowed · 14 August 2026. In May 2026, management said it was working toward 25%-30% medium-term growth. In Aug 2026, the stated outlook was approximately 25% growth for this year and next year, removing the prior 30% upper-end target without explaining the narrowing.

EBITDA Margin Outlook Became Less Specific and Lower-Confidence · 14 August 2026. In May 2026, management maintained a 13%-15% EBITDA target. In Aug 2026, management only targeted moving above approximately 13%, said margins could remain stable or improve slightly next year, and stated that it was too early to comment on next year, representing a meaningful reduction in confidence and specificity without explanation.

🚨 UHM Radar Program Value Below Earlier Disclosure · 14 August 2026. The Feb 2026 call valued the complete radar system program at approximately INR700 crores over five to six years. The Aug 2026 call described the UHM program as exceeding INR570 crores over its life cycle, a materially lower disclosed value with no explanation of whether the scope or commercial terms changed.

🚨 FY26 Standalone Revenue Growth Guidance Miss · 15 May 2026. In the Nov 2025 call, management explicitly guided for 30% standalone revenue growth for full year FY26, and the Feb 2026 call offered no formal downward revision despite 9-month standalone growth tracking at 25% year-on-year. The May 2026 call reported actual FY26 standalone revenue growth of approximately 25%, a 500 basis point shortfall below the explicitly stated target, with no acknowledgment of the guidance miss or explanation for the gap.

Every quote above is taken word for word from the company’s own earnings calls.

Frequently asked questions