Belrise Industries Ltd

Price story Before the numbers, the tape. A stock price moves through four repeating seasons: a flat base (stage 1), an advance (2), a top (3), a decline (4). Where the price sits in that cycle frames everything below.

Belrise Industries Ltd trades at ₹248, in a confirmed uptrend and 66 weeks into that stage. That is +18.7% against its own 200-day average. It sits at 92% of a 52-week range of ₹160 to ₹255. On relative strength it has been ahead of the NIFTY 500 on a trailing-13-week view for 1 straight week.

Today the stock is in a confirmed uptrend — week 66 of stage 2, confirmed. At ₹248 it trades +18.7% versus its 200-day average and sits at 92% of its 52-week range (₹160–₹255).

Against the market, two honest reads. Cumulative: over the last 1.3 years the stock moved +164% while the NIFTY 500 moved −1% — ahead of the index over the full window. Recent form: on a trailing-13-week view the stock has been ahead for 1 straight week — the ribbon below is that same metric, week by week.

What would end the trend, mechanically: two Friday closes in a row below the 200-day line. That is the exit rule — no debates.

Story check

Belrise Industries Ltd's story is not scored yet against the markers our research file set on 22 August 2026. Where it sits in its own cycle: PEAK. Our fortnightly research layers last read it on 22 August 2026.

Our read, 22 August 2026. Belrise is adding customer content and new programs, but the earnings case must clear a price-led valuation and unresolved QIP share-count, promoter-holding, and delivery questions.

From the numbers. This week's PE-cycle payload labels the setup RIDING_WAVE, with PE 41.3x, 83rd percentile, and PRICE_DRIVEN decomposition. Deterministic curve work separately records 40.4x at 2026-08-21, MONOTONIC_EXPANSION, price…

From the price. Price stage 2, week 66 — above its 200-day line, relative strength rising.

From the research. Belrise is adding customer content and new programs, but the earnings case must clear a price-led valuation and unresolved QIP share-count, promoter-holding, and delivery questions.

🚨 Where they disagree. This week's PE-cycle payload labels the setup RIDING_WAVE, with PE 41.3x, 83rd percentile, and PRICE_DRIVEN decomposition. Deterministic curve work separately records 40.4x at 2026-08-21, MONOTONIC_EXPANSION, price stage 2, an operating-cycle PEAK, falling margin direction, and NA_SHORT_MARGIN_HISTORY. The short history prevents a full through-cycle margin verdict, but it does not support trough or cheap language.

What is proven. Belrise is adding customer content and new programs, but the earnings case must clear a price-led valuation and unresolved QIP share-count, promoter-holding, and delivery questions.

What is not proven yet. The thesis breaks if the next two reported quarters fail to convert named programs into revenue while operating margin falls below the recent range and management still cannot provide a QIP share-count reconciliation or explain the promoter-holding change.

🚨 What would change our mind. The thesis breaks if the next two reported quarters fail to convert named programs into revenue while operating margin falls below the recent range and management still cannot provide a QIP share-count reconciliation or explain the promoter-holding change.

🚨 Layer 1 read, 22 August 2026 — DROP. The share price re-rated 57% while profits stopped growing — the earnings peak was fifteen months ago. Belrise's valuation went from 25.8 to 40.4 times earnings in five quarters, but trailing profit over the same five points was Rs 497 Cr, then 507, then 507 — flat — and quarterly earnings per share peaked at Rs 1.69 in Mar 2025 against Rs 1.37 in Jun 2026. The new business management names is genuine but small and late: about Rs 65 Cr a year from a chassis programme and over Rs 150 Cr at peak from solar trackers, together roughly 2.3% of last year's Rs 9,509 Cr revenue, and neither starts before Q4 FY27. Two things I found in its favour: the working-capital alarm is a false reading (the underlying collection, stock and payment days show the cash cycle improving from 53 to 48 days), and…

🚨 CIO read, 22 August 2026 — EXIT. EXIT (story_complete) · forward-asymmetry 29/100 · CONTESTED. CONTESTED — judged EPS growth of 17% falls short of the 25.8% implied rate, leaving a −8.8-point sustain gap. The rating is full at the 83rd percentile, while per-share earnings are flat and four tracked promises were missed.

The test written in advance. The thesis breaks if the next two reported quarters fail to convert named programs into revenue while operating margin falls below the recent range and management still cannot provide a QIP share-count reconciliation or explain the promoter-holding change. — the thesis as written as stated by the next result.

The test written in advance. Valuation and late-cycle risk — Valuation and late-cycle risk by the next result.

The test written in advance. QIP dilution arithmetic unresolved — QIP dilution arithmetic unresolved QIP allotment, revised weighted share count, or disclosed issue price. by the next result.

What the company does. Latest quarterly revenue and profit increased year on year while operating margin remained near the recent range. New chassis, solar, commercial-vehicle and aerospace initiatives provide named future revenue sources, with execution dates concentrated later in the fiscal year. The valuation premium is price-led; deterministic work places the operating cycle at a peak, with falling margin direction and insufficient margin history for a trough-earnings conclusion.

🚨 What the surface reading misses. The surface reading is: The trailing multiple appears expensive because it is near the high end of the available history. The research reads it further: Normalization lifts earnings modestly, but the operating cycle is at peak and margin direction is falling; limited margin history prevents a reliable claim that earnings are cyclically depressed.

🚨 What the surface reading misses. The surface reading is: Cash conversion above one indicates profit is converting into operating cash. The research reads it further: Cash is not accumulating because capex and debt repayment consume it; the cash story is growth working capital plus capex, not an identified earnings-quality leak.

Lever 2 · Value-added mix — BUILDING. Named chassis programs are scheduled to begin later in the fiscal year and could convert order breadth into revenue. What proves it keeps working: Chassis and systems program starts. It stops working if Customer production or facility readiness delays the start beyond the guided quarter.

Lever 9 · Buyback — BUILDING. A solar-tracker facility has a stated production date and peak-revenue reference, creating non-auto diversification. What proves it keeps working: Solar-tracker assembly entry. It stops working if The facility does not start production in the stated quarter or customer ramp remains below management's peak reference.

Lever 13 · Mandatory norms — BUILDING. The pending Hyva closing would add a commercial-vehicle cluster footprint and customer relationships. What proves it keeps working: Commercial-vehicle expansion through Hyva. It stops working if The acquisition does not close in the guided quarter or initial integration reduces operating margin.

Lever 7 · Consolidation — BUILDING. Manufacturing revenue remains concentrated in two- and three-wheelers, where platform launches and product additions support content growth. What proves it keeps working: Two-wheeler content and customer breadth. It stops working if Customer mix continues to keep company growth below the relevant production cycle.

Sources: our stock research file (22 August 2026) · quarterly results through Jun 26 · the company’s own earnings calls. The story check is re-scored every results season; the record below never changes.

Revenue Revenue is the top line: everything the company billed its customers in the period.

Belrise Industries Ltd reported ₹2,546 Cr of revenue in the Jun 26 quarter, +12.6% year on year. That is the 8th straight quarter of year-on-year growth. Over 8 years it has compounded at 16.2% a year. The last full year, FY26, came in at ₹9,509 Cr. The last four reported quarters add to ₹9,794 Cr.

Why this happened. Management reports broadening access across chassis, braking, EV localization and wheel assemblies. The driver needs evidence that growth catches up with industry demand after the disclosed customer-mix and timing effect.

FY26 revenue came in at ₹9,509 Cr (+14.7% on the year), capping 8 years at 16.2% compound. The latest quarter (Jun 26) printed ₹2,546 Cr, +12.6% year on year — the 8th consecutive quarter of year-over-year growth.

Pace check: the last four quarters averaged +11.7% growth against the decade's 16.2% — the current year is running slower than its own long-run rate.

Acceleration check: trailing-twelve-month revenue grew +11.7% over the last 4 quarters against +15.7%/yr over the last 8 — rolling over; TTM profit +28.0% vs +29.6%/yr — stabilising.

Operating margin Operating margin is what is left of every ₹100 of sales after running the business, before interest and tax. It is the cleanest read on pricing power and cost control.

Belrise Industries Ltd's operating margin is 12.0% in the Jun 26 quarter, +0.0 percentage points against the same quarter a year ago. Across 8 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged 11.0% to 14.0%. The current quarter sits inside that band.

Why this happened. The latest call identifies a two-wheeler and three-wheeler chassis program with stated annual-revenue potential and a Q4 FY27 start. This is the value-chain climb: systems content, rather than a single component, can raise revenue per customer platform.

The latest quarter's operating margin is 12.0%, +0.0 pp against the same quarter a year ago. Across 8 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged 11.0%–14.0%.

🚨 Why the margin moved: operating margin went −0.9 pp year on year while gross margin went +0.6 pp — the loss came mostly from the gross line: input costs and pricing.

Net profit Net profit is what survives every cost, interest and tax — the number EPS, dividends and book value all grow from.

Belrise Industries Ltd earned ₹122 Cr of net profit in the Jun 26 quarter, +8.9% year on year. It is the 6th consecutive quarter of growth. Full-year FY26 profit was ₹497 Cr. The 8-year compound rate is 11.7%. That is 4.8% of the quarter's revenue. The same quarter a year earlier earned ₹112 Cr.

Jun 26 profit was ₹122 Cr, +8.9% year on year — the 6th consecutive quarter of growth. On the full year, FY26 printed ₹497 Cr (+40.0%), and the 8-year compound rate is 11.7%.

Why profit moved: revenue contributed +12.6% and the margin +0.0 pp — the quarter was revenue-led, with the margin roughly flat.

Pace comparison, last four quarters: profit +32.5% vs revenue +11.7%. Profit is growing faster than sales — fixed costs are being spread over a bigger base, and each extra rupee of revenue drops more to the bottom line.

Cash flow — the router The P&L says what was earned; the cash-flow statement says what actually arrived. Operating cash flow (CFO) against profit is the cleanest lie detector in the accounts.

Over the last 3 fiscal years 185% of Belrise Industries Ltd's reported profit arrived as operating cash — the cash follows the profit. In FY26 that was ₹876 Cr of operating cash against ₹497 Cr of profit. After ₹542 Cr of capital spending, ₹334 Cr was left as free cash.

FY26: operating cash of ₹876 Cr against reported profit of ₹497 Cr, leaving free cash of ₹334 Cr after ₹542 Cr of capital spending. Across the last 3 fiscal years the conversion rate is 185% of profit.

Cash-flow readings here are annual — that is the resolution our series carries, so this section moves once a year.

Why conversion sits at 185%: the cash cycle tightened 17 days between FY21 and FY26 — cash that used to wait in the cycle now reaches the bank sooner.

Router verdict: the bigger cash user is investment — capital spending ran 1.8× depreciation over three years, so the next section's job is to check what that build-out is buying.

Where the cash goes Working capital is the cash tied up between paying suppliers and getting paid: debtor days (customers owe), inventory days (stock waits), and the cash conversion cycle (the whole loop, in days of sales).

Belrise Industries Ltd's cash conversion cycle runs 48 days in FY26, down from 65 days in FY21. Capital spending ran ₹1,847 Cr over the last 3 years. At FY26 sales of ₹9,509 Cr each day of that cycle holds about ₹26.1 Cr, so roughly ₹1,250 Cr sits inside the business at any moment.

FY26: debtors at 67 days, inventory at 44 days — roughly 1.4 months of stock waiting to sell; that is where the cash sits while it waits — for a full cycle of 48 days, tighter than FY21's 65.

The full loop: cash goes out to suppliers and production on day 0; stock waits 44 days to sell; customers pay about 67 days after that; and suppliers themselves are paid at 63 days — netting out to the 48-day cycle.

In money terms: at FY26 sales of ₹9,509 Cr, each day of the cycle holds about ₹26.1 Cr — so the 48-day loop keeps roughly ₹1,250 Cr sitting inside the business at any moment.

On the investment side: capital spending of ₹1,847 Cr over the last 3 fiscal years against ₹1,012 Cr of depreciation — the company is building well ahead of wear-and-tear. Capital work-in-progress stands at ₹240 Cr (FY26) — capacity paid for but not yet earning.

The synthesis: the cash is going into capacity, not disappearing into the cycle — the question becomes whether the new capacity earns.

Return on capital Return on capital employed (ROCE) is the profit the whole business earns on all the money in it — equity and debt together. It is the single best test of whether growth creates value or just size.

Belrise Industries Ltd earns a ROCE of 15% in FY26. That is up from a trough of 11% in FY21. Return on invested capital clears the cost of that capital by −2.2 percentage points, so growth here is not yet paying for the capital it uses. The wiring behind it is 5.2% net margin on 1.11× asset turns.

FY26 ROCE is 15%, recovered from a FY21 trough of 11% — the full ladder below shows the fall and the climb, undoctored.

🚨 Why the return is what it is — the wiring (FY26): 5.2% net margin × 1.11× asset turns × 1.64× balance-sheet leverage ≈ 9.5% on equity. Margin does its share; leverage is a meaningful part of the equation.

The capstone test — ROIC − WACC: 9.8% − 12.0% = a −2.2 pp spread. The 12.0% is a standing assumption for the cost of capital in India, not a per-stock estimate — read the sign and the size of the spread, not the decimals. Negative — growth at these returns destroys value until the returns recover.

Debt Debt-to-equity says how much of the business is funded by borrowings. Low is the safe corner; the trend matters as much as the level.

Belrise Industries Ltd carries total debt of ₹1,521 Cr against shareholder equity of ₹5,226 Cr as of Mar 26, a debt-to-equity of 0.29 — effectively unlevered. On the annual view that ratio went from 1.52 in FY22 to 0.29 in FY26. The returns elsewhere on this page are therefore earned rather than borrowed.

Mar 26: total debt of ₹1,521 Cr against shareholder equity of ₹5,226 Cr — a debt-to-equity of 0.29. On the annual view, debt-to-equity went from 1.52 (FY22) to 0.29 (FY26). The returns on this page are earned, not borrowed.

Ownership Who owns the stock, quarter by quarter: promoters (the controlling owners), foreign and domestic institutions, and the public. Steady accumulation by people close to the numbers is a signal; a quiet register is also an answer.

Promoters cut 11.9 points of Belrise Industries Ltd over 5 quarters, the biggest move on the register. That takes promoters to 61.1% of the company. Domestic institutions moved +6.0 points over the same window, to 13.1%. The register is read on the four disclosed classes only; nothing is inferred between filings.

Why this happened. Management describes the solar order as recurring and scalable, with a new facility intended to serve export and domestic opportunities. Delivery must be demonstrated before it is treated as a durable diversification stream.

The register over the last two years — Promoters: −11.9 points over 5 quarters to 61.1%; Domestic institutions: +6.0 points over 5 quarters to 13.1%; Foreign institutions: +5.3 points over 5 quarters to 12.1%.

🚨 Why the register moved: promoters drove it (−11.9 points), absorbed on the other side by domestic institutions (+6.0 points) — distribution into the market’s bid.

Safety line The Z-score estimates how far a company sits from balance-sheet distress — above roughly 3 is safe, below roughly 1.8 is the danger zone. It was built for manufacturers, so it is not applied to banks and lenders.

Belrise Industries Ltd: the Z-score is not available for this stock, so we say so rather than invent one. It is a distance-to-distress estimate from the balance sheet, not a forecast of failure. The debt, cash-flow and return sections above carry the balance-sheet evidence this page does hold, and each of them states its own reporting date.

Why this happened. Management says the closing process is underway and links the business to tipper bodies and commercial-vehicle OEMs. It is a dated transaction catalyst, not current earnings, until closing and integration are reported.

The safety line in one sentence: the Z-score is not available for this stock, so we say so rather than invent one.

Valuation P/E is the price of ₹1 of annual profit: how many rupees the market pays for each rupee the company earns in a year.

Belrise Industries Ltd trades at 47.0× P/E, about the priciest it has ever traded. Its long-run median P/E is 28.8×, measured across 1.3 years of weekly readings. This places the multiple against the stock’s own record, and says nothing about what the business is worth.

Today's P/E of 47.0× is about the priciest it has ever traded, against a long-run median of 28.8× measured over 1.3 years of weekly readings. This is a comparison against the stock's own history — not a claim about what it is worth.

🚨 Why the multiple sits where it does: over the past year annual EPS moved +2.2% against a +57.4% price move — the price outran earnings, pushing the multiple UP its own range.

Put together: the multiple is full against its own past, so the story rests on the earnings line underneath it, not the multiple.

What the price assumes This reading works the multiple backwards. It asks one question: what yearly rate of profit growth is a buyer at the market price already paying for? The number is the growth rate that makes eleven years of profit — six years growing, then five fading — add up to that day's market price, once each year is discounted at 11% a year.

Solved at its 24 August 2026 price, Belrise Industries Ltd was paying for profit growth of about 25.8% a year. Profit itself has compounded 11.7% a year over the past 8 years. Today the market pays 47.0× P/E, the 100th percentile of its own 1-year range.

What the two numbers say together. The multiple is full against its own past, and the growth the price is paying for is far above what this company has actually delivered.

How to hold this number: it is a reading of one day's price, taken on 24 August 2026, not a running figure — every other number on this page, the multiple included, is read off the live quote as of 25 September 2026. A higher price is paying for more growth and a lower price for less, so it moves whenever the price does, and this page does not restate it between measurements.

Stage: Mixed Every business sits somewhere on a fundamental arc, and this page names the spot before anything else. The last twelve quarters of revenue, profit and EPS growth — plus the return the business earns on its capital — are read as curves: Deteriorating (the curves are falling), Turning around (a trough has just formed and the last few quarters lift off it), Improving (the climb off the trough is sustained), Consistent (steadily positive with healthy returns), Topping out (still high but decelerating from the peak). When the curves genuinely disagree the read is Mixed; too little history is No read. CAGR (compound annual growth rate) is the smooth yearly pace that turns the starting value into the latest one — the fairest way to compare growth across different time spans. Read the columns together: if the 1-year number towers over the 10-year, recent growth is running hotter than the long-run trend. A dash means that window is not held, or the base year was a loss (where a growth rate is not meaningful).

Belrise Industries Ltd reads as mixed on its fundamental arc. Mixed — growth is normalizing off a hyper-growth base: profit growth has eased from +64.6% at its peak to +28.0% but is still expanding, ROCE holding at 17.0%. The read is built from 12 quarters across 4 curves, on full evidence.

Why it matters: when the curves disagree, the per-curve reads above matter more than any single verdict.

4-Factor Sector Score

58.8/100 — rank 1 of 1 in Auto Ancillaries - 2 Wheelers · 90% evidence confidence

Belrise Industries Ltd scores 58.8 out of 100 against the 1 companies it is compared with in Auto Ancillaries - 2 Wheelers, ranking 1. Balanced evidence: keep at normal research priority and require another comparable period before raising conviction.

The four contributions add to the total exactly: 18.9 + 12.4 + 15 + 12.5 = 58.8. This is the SAME number shown on the sector comparison — it is computed once, for the whole peer set, and read here.

What would change it: The read weakens if profit growth turns negative or margin improvement reverses while sector-relative strength deteriorates.

Said versus delivered

What Belrise Industries Ltd's management promised, set against what actually arrived — 4 tracked promises on the record. Read straight from the company’s own earnings calls. A promise that slipped stays on this page after it is met.

High-Tensile Capability Revised Downward · 17 August 2026. The February 2026 call stated that Belrise could access high-tensile capability up to 1,700 megapascals through its H-One partnership. In the latest call, management described the capability as extending only up to 1,470 MPa, a materially lower ceiling, without explaining the change; this could affect assumptions about the technology's differentiation and addressable opportunity.

Capex Guidance Shift · 25 May 2026. In the Nov 2025 call, management committed to an absolute capital expenditure guidance of INR 8,000 million over both the then-current and subsequent fiscal years. However, in the May 2026 call, management shifted to a percentage-based guidance of 6% to 6.5% of manufacturing revenues. Applying this percentage-based guidance over the same period yields a materially higher projected absolute capital footprint compared to the previously guided flat amount.

🚨 Merger Timeline Slippage · 2 February 2026. In November 2025, management explicitly maintained that the merger with Badve Autocomp and Eximus would be completed within the current fiscal year (FY26). However, in the February 2026 call (held just one month before fiscal year-end), management stated the regulatory timeline is 10-12 months, effectively pushing completion into FY27, despite confusingly retaining the FY26 reference in the same sentence. Earlier call (Nov 2025): “We still maintain that we will be able to do it as soon as possible... within this fiscal year.” Later call (Feb 2026): “The timeline for regulatory and NCLT approvals is 10-12 months, so likely within FY26.”

Commercial Vehicle Ramp-Up Discrepancy · 2 February 2026. In the November 2025 call, management claimed the new commercial vehicle (CV) facility had ramped up in 'record time' and would reach peak revenues of INR 120 million/month within 2-3 months. Contradicting this growth narrative, the February 2026 results showed a sequential decline in CV revenue share (from 8.3% to 7.9%) and absolute revenue, with explanations focused solely on PV supply chain issues rather than the CV stall. Earlier call (Nov 2025): “The dedicated facility for this program has been ramped up in record time, and we expect to reach peak revenues in the next two to three months. At full capacity, this facility is expected to generate revenues of approximately INR120 million per month.” Later call (Feb 2026): “In terms of manufacturing segmental performance... commercial vehicles 7.9%... shifting our Bhiwadi plant for a Japanese OEM caused a transitional production loss.”

Every quote above is taken word for word from the company’s own earnings calls.

Frequently asked questions