Belrise Industries Ltd

Price story Before the numbers, the tape. A stock price moves through four repeating seasons: a flat base (stage 1), an advance (2), a top (3), a decline (4). Where the price sits in that cycle frames everything below.

Belrise Industries Ltd trades at ₹255, in a confirmed uptrend and 60 weeks into that stage. That is +27.5% against its own 200-day average. It sits at 100% of a 52-week range of ₹150 to ₹255. On relative strength it has been ahead of the NIFTY 500 on a trailing-13-week view for 57 straight weeks.

Today the stock is in a confirmed uptrend — week 60 of stage 2, confirmed. At ₹255 it trades +27.5% versus its 200-day average and sits at 100% of its 52-week range (₹150–₹255).

Against the market, two honest reads. Cumulative: over the last 1.2 years the stock moved +172% while the NIFTY 500 moved +3% — ahead of the index over the full window. Recent form: on a trailing-13-week view the stock has been ahead for 57 straight weeks — the ribbon below is that same metric, week by week.

What would end the trend, mechanically: two Friday closes in a row below the 200-day line. That is the exit rule — no debates.

Story check

Belrise Industries Ltd's story is not scored yet against the markers our research file set on 31 May 2026. Where it sits in its own cycle: EARLY_EXPANSION. Still open: Shift from ₹8,000 Mn absolute to 6-6.5% of manufacturing revenues materially increases projected absolute capex as revenues grow — inconsistency vs Nov 2025 commitment, raising FCF concerns.

Our read, 31 May 2026. FY26 delivery confirmed (revenue +15%, PAT +40%) — two major OEM wins (₹310 Cr peak combined) and Chesterhall aerospace acquisition shift FY27 thesis from recovery to re-acceleration.

From the numbers. Post-IPO stock with limited history (listed May 2025). PE at 80th+ percentile (38.5x vs 26.9x median) reflects growth expectations at growth multiple. DII ownership doubled from 4% (Sep 2025) → 9.27% (Dec 2025) → 10.16%…

From the price. Price stage 2, week 60 — above its 200-day line, relative strength falling.

From the research. FY26 delivery confirmed (revenue +15%, PAT +40%) — two major OEM wins (₹310 Cr peak combined) and Chesterhall aerospace acquisition shift FY27 thesis from recovery to re-acceleration.

🚨 Where they disagree. Post-IPO stock with limited history (listed May 2025). PE at 80th+ percentile (38.5x vs 26.9x median) reflects growth expectations at growth multiple. DII ownership doubled from 4% (Sep 2025) → 9.27% (Dec 2025) → 10.16% (Mar 2026) over 3 quarters — institutional accumulation signal despite Q4 one-time charge. FII stable at 8.86% (Mar 2026) vs 8.9% (Dec 2025). No 10Y cycle reference for compression analysis (IPO < 1 year old). The institutional signal has shifted from FII_BUYING to DII_ACCUMULATION as the primary positive indicator.

What is proven. FY26 delivery confirmed (revenue +15%, PAT +40%) — two major OEM wins (₹310 Cr peak combined) and Chesterhall aerospace acquisition shift FY27 thesis from recovery to re-acceleration.

What is not proven yet. Shift from ₹8,000 Mn absolute to 6-6.5% of manufacturing revenues materially increases projected absolute capex as revenues grow — inconsistency vs Nov 2025 commitment, raising FCF concerns.

Layer 2 read, 19 July 2026 — BENCH. Extended IPO with the re-rating fuel spent — EPS flat year-on-year and the merger catalyst slipped a fourth time; no external positive to justify advancing. FY26 delivery was real (rev +15%, PAT +40%) but EPS is now flat YoY (Mar25 1.69 -> Mar26 1.46) and OPM slipped 13->11%, so the 83rd-percentile PE is no longer pulled up by fresh earnings. The sector shows an IDEAL_TROUGH_SETUP but that accrues to earlier-cycle peers, not this extended name; the Tijori fallback flags a margin HEADWIND for auto ancillaries. No cited external positive and no DROP-grade negative — BENCH.

What would change Layer 2’s mind. A concrete forward EPS re-acceleration signal — the Chesterhall/OEM ramps landing as delivered volume in the next quarter (reversing the flat EPS 1.46) OR the merger finally closing (promoter stake moving off 66.46%) — would flip BENCH to ADVANCE. A margin collapse from the crude/freight headwind materializing would flip toward DROP.

The test written in advance. Capex Guidance Shift — Higher Absolute Spend Than Guided — Capex Guidance Shift — Higher Absolute Spend Than Guided FY27 interim capex spend vs ₹4,640 Mn annual implied; any further guidance revision upward by the next result.

The test written in advance. Merger Timeline — Fourth Slip, NCLT Status Opaque — Merger Timeline — Fourth Slip, NCLT Status Opaque Promoter shareholding moving above 66.46% (signals share issuance for merger); NCLT filing announcement in Q1 FY27 call by the next result.

The test written in advance. Margin Compression from Near-Term Cost Pressures — Margin Compression from Near-Term Cost Pressures Q1 FY27 consolidated OPM below 11.5% without aerospace one-time explanation by the next result.

Lever 2 · Value-added mix — BUILDING. Japanese 2W OEM (₹220 Cr peak, Q4 FY27) + fastest-growing 2W/3W OEM (₹90 Cr peak, Q2 FY27) confirmed in May 2026 call — both on quantified timelines, adding ~4% structural uplift to FY26 manufacturing base. What proves it keeps working: Two New Major 2W OEM Wins — ₹310 Cr Peak Combined Revenue. It stops working if FY27 interim capex spend vs ₹4,640 Mn annual implied; any further guidance revision upward.

Lever 7 · Consolidation — BUILDING. 2W CPV reached ₹20,000 (+67% from ₹12,000 baseline) with 80% from proprietary products; 4W CPV expanded 40-45% to ₹40-45,000 post-H1. Steering columns now at all top-3 Indian 2W OEMs. What proves it keeps working: Content Per Vehicle Expansion — Tier-0.5 Wallet Share. It stops working if FY27 interim capex spend vs ₹4,640 Mn annual implied; any further guidance revision upward.

Lever 1 · Operating leverage — BUILDING. Interest cost dropped from ₹89 Cr (Sep 2024) to ₹46 Cr (Mar 2026) — ₹172 Cr annualized PAT uplift that directly explains 40% FY26 PAT growth on 15% revenue growth. What proves it keeps working: Post-IPO Interest Cost Structural Decline. It stops working if FY27 interim capex spend vs ₹4,640 Mn annual implied; any further guidance revision upward.

Lever 9 · Buyback — BUILDING. Chesterhall UK (£18.5 Mn revenue, 20%+ ROCE, single-source for world's highest-selling aircraft) acquired for £13.2 Mn; SDM France one-time ₹94.7 Cr loss absorbed; both targeted EBITDA positive FY27. What proves it keeps working: Aerospace Diversification — Chesterhall UK + SDM France. It stops working if FY27 interim capex spend vs ₹4,640 Mn annual implied; any further guidance revision upward.

Sources: our stock research file (31 May 2026) · quarterly results through Jun 26 · the company’s own earnings calls. The story check is re-scored every results season; the record below never changes.

Revenue Revenue is the top line: everything the company billed its customers in the period.

Belrise Industries Ltd reported ₹2,546 Cr of revenue in the Jun 26 quarter, +12.6% year on year. That is the 8th straight quarter of year-on-year growth. Over 8 years it has compounded at 16.2% a year. The last full year, FY26, came in at ₹9,509 Cr. The last four reported quarters add to ₹9,794 Cr.

Why this happened. The Tier-0.5 compounding is now documented across two full fiscal years. 2W content per vehicle expanded from ₹12,000 (FY25 start) → ₹17,300 (Q1 FY26 target) → ₹20,000 (FY26 actual) — each step driven by a proprietary product line addition (steering, suspension, high-tensile, braking, plastics). 80% of CPV growth is from internally-developed products, creating recurring incremental revenue that is sticky once qualified. 4W/CV CPV of ₹40-45,000 is enabled by the H1 high-tensile capability. The structural ceiling of CPV expansion is still far off — management targets cross-selling the existing proprietary product portfolio to OEMs 2, 3, and 4 to align with OEM-1's current ₹20,000 level.

FY26 revenue came in at ₹9,509 Cr (+14.7% on the year), capping 8 years at 16.2% compound. The latest quarter (Jun 26) printed ₹2,546 Cr, +12.6% year on year — the 8th consecutive quarter of year-over-year growth.

Pace check: the last four quarters averaged +11.7% growth against the decade's 16.2% — the current year is running slower than its own long-run rate.

Acceleration check: trailing-twelve-month revenue grew +11.7% over the last 4 quarters against +15.7%/yr over the last 8 — rolling over; TTM profit +28.0% vs +29.6%/yr — stabilising.

Operating margin Operating margin is what is left of every ₹100 of sales after running the business, before interest and tax. It is the cleanest read on pricing power and cost control.

Belrise Industries Ltd's operating margin is 12.0% in the Jun 26 quarter, +0.0 percentage points against the same quarter a year ago. Across 8 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged 11.0% to 14.0%. The current quarter sits inside that band.

Why this happened. The May 2026 concall delivered two concrete OEM wins with specific peak revenues and production start dates. The Japanese 2W OEM awarded exhaust systems and metal components — a relationship earned through 8-week supply chain crisis management when a competitor faced financial distress. Production begins Q4 FY27 with ₹220 Cr peak annual revenue. The fastest-growing 2W/3W OEM awarded exhaust and fuel tanks for its highest-selling model, with Bangalore brownfield facility supporting Q2 FY27 production start at ₹90 Cr peak. Both wins are off the same capability (850 robots, NVH metallurgical expertise, full verticalization) that broke the 30-year steering column monopoly 18 months ago…

The latest quarter's operating margin is 12.0%, +0.0 pp against the same quarter a year ago. Across 8 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged 11.0%–14.0%.

🚨 Why the margin moved: operating margin went −0.9 pp year on year while gross margin went +0.6 pp — the loss came mostly from the gross line: input costs and pricing.

Net profit Net profit is what survives every cost, interest and tax — the number EPS, dividends and book value all grow from.

Belrise Industries Ltd earned ₹122 Cr of net profit in the Jun 26 quarter, +8.9% year on year. It is the 6th consecutive quarter of growth. Full-year FY26 profit was ₹497 Cr. The 8-year compound rate is 11.7%. That is 4.8% of the quarter's revenue. The same quarter a year earlier earned ₹112 Cr.

Jun 26 profit was ₹122 Cr, +8.9% year on year — the 6th consecutive quarter of growth. On the full year, FY26 printed ₹497 Cr (+40.0%), and the 8-year compound rate is 11.7%.

Why profit moved: revenue contributed +12.6% and the margin +0.0 pp — the quarter was revenue-led, with the margin roughly flat.

Pace comparison, last four quarters: profit +32.5% vs revenue +11.7%. Profit is growing faster than sales — fixed costs are being spread over a bigger base, and each extra rupee of revenue drops more to the bottom line.

Cash flow — the router The P&L says what was earned; the cash-flow statement says what actually arrived. Operating cash flow (CFO) against profit is the cleanest lie detector in the accounts.

Over the last 3 fiscal years 185% of Belrise Industries Ltd's reported profit arrived as operating cash — the cash follows the profit. In FY26 that was ₹876 Cr of operating cash against ₹497 Cr of profit. After ₹542 Cr of capital spending, ₹334 Cr was left as free cash.

FY26: operating cash of ₹876 Cr against reported profit of ₹497 Cr, leaving free cash of ₹334 Cr after ₹542 Cr of capital spending. Across the last 3 fiscal years the conversion rate is 185% of profit.

Cash-flow readings here are annual — that is the resolution our series carries, so this section moves once a year.

Why conversion sits at 185%: the cash cycle tightened 17 days between FY21 and FY26 — cash that used to wait in the cycle now reaches the bank sooner.

Router verdict: the bigger cash user is investment — capital spending ran 1.8× depreciation over three years, so the next section's job is to check what that build-out is buying.

Where the cash goes Working capital is the cash tied up between paying suppliers and getting paid: debtor days (customers owe), inventory days (stock waits), and the cash conversion cycle (the whole loop, in days of sales).

Belrise Industries Ltd's cash conversion cycle runs 48 days in FY26, down from 65 days in FY21. Capital spending ran ₹1,847 Cr over the last 3 years. At FY26 sales of ₹9,509 Cr each day of that cycle holds about ₹26.1 Cr, so roughly ₹1,250 Cr sits inside the business at any moment.

FY26: debtors at 67 days, inventory at 44 days — roughly 1.4 months of stock waiting to sell; that is where the cash sits while it waits — for a full cycle of 48 days, tighter than FY21's 65.

The full loop: cash goes out to suppliers and production on day 0; stock waits 44 days to sell; customers pay about 67 days after that; and suppliers themselves are paid at 63 days — netting out to the 48-day cycle.

In money terms: at FY26 sales of ₹9,509 Cr, each day of the cycle holds about ₹26.1 Cr — so the 48-day loop keeps roughly ₹1,250 Cr sitting inside the business at any moment.

On the investment side: capital spending of ₹1,847 Cr over the last 3 fiscal years against ₹1,012 Cr of depreciation — the company is building well ahead of wear-and-tear. Capital work-in-progress stands at ₹240 Cr (FY26) — capacity paid for but not yet earning.

The synthesis: the cash is going into capacity, not disappearing into the cycle — the question becomes whether the new capacity earns.

Return on capital Return on capital employed (ROCE) is the profit the whole business earns on all the money in it — equity and debt together. It is the single best test of whether growth creates value or just size.

Belrise Industries Ltd earns a ROCE of 15% in FY26. That is up from a trough of 11% in FY21. Return on invested capital clears the cost of that capital by −2.1 percentage points, so growth here is not yet paying for the capital it uses. The wiring behind it is 5.2% net margin on 1.11× asset turns.

FY26 ROCE is 15%, recovered from a FY21 trough of 11% — the full ladder below shows the fall and the climb, undoctored.

🚨 Why the return is what it is — the wiring (FY26): 5.2% net margin × 1.11× asset turns × 1.64× balance-sheet leverage ≈ 9.5% on equity. Margin does its share; leverage is a meaningful part of the equation.

The capstone test — ROIC − WACC: 9.9% − 12.0% = a −2.1 pp spread. The 12.0% is a standing assumption for the cost of capital in India, not a per-stock estimate — read the sign and the size of the spread, not the decimals. Negative — growth at these returns destroys value until the returns recover.

Debt Debt-to-equity says how much of the business is funded by borrowings. Low is the safe corner; the trend matters as much as the level.

Belrise Industries Ltd carries total debt of ₹1,521 Cr against shareholder equity of ₹5,226 Cr as of Mar 26, a debt-to-equity of 0.29 — effectively unlevered. On the annual view that ratio went from 1.52 in FY22 to 0.29 in FY26. The returns elsewhere on this page are therefore earned rather than borrowed.

Mar 26: total debt of ₹1,521 Cr against shareholder equity of ₹5,226 Cr — a debt-to-equity of 0.29. On the annual view, debt-to-equity went from 1.52 (FY22) to 0.29 (FY26). The returns on this page are earned, not borrowed.

Ownership Who owns the stock, quarter by quarter: promoters (the controlling owners), foreign and domestic institutions, and the public. Steady accumulation by people close to the numbers is a signal; a quiet register is also an answer.

Promoters cut 11.9 points of Belrise Industries Ltd over 5 quarters, the biggest move on the register. That takes promoters to 61.1% of the company. Domestic institutions moved +6.0 points over the same window, to 13.1%. The register is read on the four disclosed classes only; nothing is inferred between filings.

Why this happened. Chesterhall acquisition delivers immediate aerospace OEM relationships (two world's largest aircraft OEMs + premier engine supplier) that would take 2-3 years to build organically due to 12-24 month qualification timelines. Acquired at £13.2 Mn with 0.5-1% rejection rate — premium quality certifications included in price. The medium-term strategy is India localization: transfer Chesterhall and SDM production to India leveraging cost and engineering advantages, targeting 10%+ of total revenues from aerospace. SDM France absorbed ₹94.7 Cr one-time Q4 FY26 loss (start-up engineering, legal, and personnel costs) which management expects to reverse to EBITDA positive in FY27. This driver is at…

The register over the last two years — Promoters: −11.9 points over 5 quarters to 61.1%; Domestic institutions: +6.0 points over 5 quarters to 13.1%; Foreign institutions: +5.3 points over 5 quarters to 12.1%.

🚨 Why the register moved: promoters drove it (−11.9 points), absorbed on the other side by domestic institutions (+6.0 points) — distribution into the market’s bid.

Safety line The Z-score estimates how far a company sits from balance-sheet distress — above roughly 3 is safe, below roughly 1.8 is the danger zone. It was built for manufacturers, so it is not applied to banks and lenders.

Belrise Industries Ltd: the Z-score is not available for this stock, so we say so rather than invent one. It is a distance-to-distress estimate from the balance sheet, not a forecast of failure. The debt, cash-flow and return sections above carry the balance-sheet evidence this page does hold, and each of them states its own reporting date.

Why this happened. The merger remains the largest structural event in the thesis but continues to slip on timeline. Combined PAT of ₹1,123 Mn at 8.3x P/E is immediately accretive given Belrise's ~38x multiple. Post-merger revenue accretion ₹1,000+ Cr (net of ₹11.5 Bn RPT elimination). Promoter shareholding rises from 66.5% to 67.9%. Board has approved the merger; NCLT filing status was not updated in the May 2026 call, and the promoter holding remains at 66.46% in Mar 2026 data — unchanged from Dec 2025, confirming the merger has not yet closed. Given 4 prior schedule slips (Q2 FY26 → Q3 FY26 → Q4 FY26 → Q2 FY27), this is now a WATCHING-PENDING catalyst rather than a near-term trigger.

The safety line in one sentence: the Z-score is not available for this stock, so we say so rather than invent one.

Valuation P/E is the price of ₹1 of annual profit: how many rupees the market pays for each rupee the company earns in a year.

Belrise Industries Ltd trades at 48.4× P/E, about the priciest it has ever traded. Its long-run median P/E is 28.6×, measured across 1.2 years of weekly readings. This places the multiple against the stock’s own record, and says nothing about what the business is worth.

Today's P/E of 48.4× is about the priciest it has ever traded, against a long-run median of 28.6× measured over 1.2 years of weekly readings. This is a comparison against the stock's own history — not a claim about what it is worth.

🚨 Why the multiple sits where it does: over the past year annual EPS moved +2.2% against a +89.8% price move — the price outran earnings, pushing the multiple UP its own range.

Put together: the multiple is full against its own past, so the story rests on the earnings line underneath it, not the multiple.

Stage: Mixed Every business sits somewhere on a fundamental arc, and this page names the spot before anything else. The last twelve quarters of revenue, profit and EPS growth — plus the return the business earns on its capital — are read as curves: Deteriorating (the curves are falling), Turning around (a trough has just formed and the last few quarters lift off it), Improving (the climb off the trough is sustained), Consistent (steadily positive with healthy returns), Topping out (still high but decelerating from the peak). When the curves genuinely disagree the read is Mixed; too little history is No read. CAGR (compound annual growth rate) is the smooth yearly pace that turns the starting value into the latest one — the fairest way to compare growth across different time spans. Read the columns together: if the 1-year number towers over the 10-year, recent growth is running hotter than the long-run trend. A dash means that window is not held, or the base year was a loss (where a growth rate is not meaningful).

Belrise Industries Ltd reads as mixed on its fundamental arc. Mixed — growth is normalizing off a hyper-growth base: profit growth has eased from +64.6% at its peak to +28.0% but is still expanding, ROCE holding at 17.0%. The read is built from 12 quarters across 4 curves, on full evidence.

Why it matters: when the curves disagree, the per-curve reads above matter more than any single verdict.

4-Factor Sector Score

66.3/100 — rank 2 of 4 in Auto Ancillaries - 2 Wheelers · 84% evidence confidence

Belrise Industries Ltd scores 66.3 out of 100 against the 4 companies it is compared with in Auto Ancillaries - 2 Wheelers, ranking 2. Balanced evidence: keep at normal research priority and require another comparable period before raising conviction.

The four contributions add to the total exactly: 18.9 + 15.4 + 15 + 17 = 66.3. This is the SAME number shown on the sector comparison — it is computed once, for the whole peer set, and read here.

What would change it: The read weakens if profit growth turns negative or margin improvement reverses while sector-relative strength deteriorates.

Said versus delivered

What Belrise Industries Ltd's management promised, set against what actually arrived — 4 tracked promises on the record. Read straight from the company’s own earnings calls. A promise that slipped stays on this page after it is met.

Capex Guidance Shift · 25 May 2026. In the Nov 2025 call, management committed to an absolute capital expenditure guidance of INR 8,000 million over both the then-current and subsequent fiscal years. However, in the May 2026 call, management shifted to a percentage-based guidance of 6% to 6.5% of manufacturing revenues. Applying this percentage-based guidance over the same period yields a materially higher projected absolute capital footprint compared to the previously guided flat amount.

🚨 Merger Timeline Slippage · 2 February 2026. In November 2025, management explicitly maintained that the merger with Badve Autocomp and Eximus would be completed within the current fiscal year (FY26). However, in the February 2026 call (held just one month before fiscal year-end), management stated the regulatory timeline is 10-12 months, effectively pushing completion into FY27, despite confusingly retaining the FY26 reference in the same sentence. Earlier call (Nov 2025): “We still maintain that we will be able to do it as soon as possible... within this fiscal year.” Later call (Feb 2026): “The timeline for regulatory and NCLT approvals is 10-12 months, so likely within FY26.”

Commercial Vehicle Ramp-Up Discrepancy · 2 February 2026. In the November 2025 call, management claimed the new commercial vehicle (CV) facility had ramped up in 'record time' and would reach peak revenues of INR 120 million/month within 2-3 months. Contradicting this growth narrative, the February 2026 results showed a sequential decline in CV revenue share (from 8.3% to 7.9%) and absolute revenue, with explanations focused solely on PV supply chain issues rather than the CV stall. Earlier call (Nov 2025): “The dedicated facility for this program has been ramped up in record time, and we expect to reach peak revenues in the next two to three months. At full capacity, this facility is expected to generate revenues of approximately INR120 million per month.” Later call (Feb 2026): “In terms of manufacturing segmental performance... commercial vehicles 7.9%... shifting our Bhiwadi plant for a Japanese OEM caused a transitional production loss.”

🚨 Chennai Plant Peak Revenue and Timeline Revision · 12 November 2025. Management significantly revised down the peak revenue potential and extended the ramp-up timeline for its primary Chennai facility. In the August 2025 call, the plant was projected to reach a peak annual turnover of INR 2,000-2,500 million within 2-3 quarters. However, in the November 2025 call, this outlook was lowered to INR 1,500-2,000 million and the timeline was pushed out to 12-18 months, without any explanation for the reduction or delay. Earlier call (Aug 2025): “The Chennai plant is expected to continue scaling over the next two to three quarters with a targeted annual turnover of INR2,000 to INR2,500 million at its peak.” Later call (Nov 2025): “another Chennai facility that we set up for a premium two-wheeler OEM and a large commercial vehicle OEM in Chennai. That has already ramped up, and I think in the next 12 to 18 months we can enable that to get to again INR 1,500 million, and that speed can go up to INR 2,000 million as well.”

Every quote above is taken word for word from the company’s own earnings calls.

Frequently asked questions