Arvind Ltd

Price story Before the numbers, the tape. A stock price moves through four repeating seasons: a flat base (stage 1), an advance (2), a top (3), a decline (4). Where the price sits in that cycle frames everything below.

Arvind Ltd trades at ₹572, in a confirmed uptrend and 24 weeks into that stage. That is +32.0% against its own 200-day average. It sits at 100% of a 52-week range of ₹280 to ₹572. On relative strength it has been ahead of the NIFTY 500 on a trailing-13-week view for 2 straight weeks.

Today the stock is in a confirmed uptrend — week 24 of stage 2, confirmed. At ₹572 it trades +32.0% versus its 200-day average and sits at 100% of its 52-week range (₹280–₹572).

Against the market, two honest reads. Cumulative: over the last 10.5 years the stock moved +564% while the NIFTY 500 moved +284% — ahead of the index over the full window. Recent form: on a trailing-13-week view the stock has been ahead for 2 straight weeks — the ribbon below is that same metric, week by week.

What would end the trend, mechanically: two Friday closes in a row below the 200-day line. That is the exit rule — no debates.

Story check

Arvind Ltd's story is not scored yet against the markers our research file set on 17 May 2026. Where it sits in its own cycle: MID_CONTRACTION.

Our read, 17 May 2026. Two engines — AMD (21% growth, 15% margins) and garmenting verticalization — are real, but the stock at 82nd-percentile PE has front-run the delivery by 2-3 years.

From the numbers. PE at 82nd percentile of 10-year range (24.3x vs 10.5x median = 2.3x multiple). Peak cycle was Sep 2024 at 32.1x. Currently in MID_CONTRACTION from that peak. The PE decomposition is EARNINGS_DRIVEN — EPS did grow from…

From the price. Price stage 2, week 24 — above its 200-day line, relative strength falling.

From the research. Two engines — AMD (21% growth, 15% margins) and garmenting verticalization — are real, but the stock at 82nd-percentile PE has front-run the delivery by 2-3 years.

🚨 Where they disagree. PE at 82nd percentile of 10-year range (24.3x vs 10.5x median = 2.3x multiple). Peak cycle was Sep 2024 at 32.1x. Currently in MID_CONTRACTION from that peak. The PE decomposition is EARNINGS_DRIVEN — EPS did grow from Rs9 to Rs16 TTM — but the PAT YoY momentum is now decelerating sharply (35% → 70% → -4.7% → 6.5%). FII_SELLING signal confirms smart money is reducing exposure at current levels. Three historical troughs: Mar 2016 (8.25x), Mar 2020 (5.4x), Dec 2022 (6.4x). Current level is far above any historical trough, suggesting significant downside risk if growth disappoints.

What is proven. Two engines — AMD (21% growth, 15% margins) and garmenting verticalization — are real, but the stock at 82nd-percentile PE has front-run the delivery by 2-3 years.

What is not proven yet. PE at 24x vs historical median 10.5x (2.3x, 82nd percentile) while earnings are decelerating — the market has fully priced the AMD/garmenting transformation before 2-3 years of delivery; any earnings miss triggers PE de-rate to 12-15x range (-30 to -45% downside).

The test written in advance. PE at 82nd percentile — FULLY_EXPANDED, MID_CONTRACTION — PE at 82nd percentile — FULLY_EXPANDED, MID_CONTRACTION AMD quarterly revenue growth below 18% OR consolidated OPM below 10.5% in any quarter by the next result.

The test written in advance. H1 FY27 Margin Headwind — Input Cost Squeeze — H1 FY27 Margin Headwind — Input Cost Squeeze H1 FY27 consolidated EBITDA margin vs H1 FY26 reported margin; oil price trajectory by the next result.

The test written in advance. Management Guidance Consistency — Repeated Pattern of Misses — Management Guidance Consistency — Repeated Pattern of Misses Q1 FY27 AMD revenue vs mid-teens target; Dalco financial contribution vs 'accretive from year one' claim by the next result.

What the company does. FY26 closed with revenue +12% to Rs9,303 Cr, EBITDA crossing Rs1,000 Cr for the first time, PAT +21% to Rs444 Cr, and ROCE at 14% (+120 bps) — the transformation is happening. The problem: PE at 24x vs 10.5x historical median (82nd percentile, FULLY_EXPANDED) while earnings momentum is CONTRACTING YoY in the latest quarter and FII is selling. AMD (18-20% growth target, 15-16% EBITDA) + Dalco US acquisition + EU/UK FTA unlock are the multi-year catalysts, but H1 FY27 faces 1-1.5% EBITDA margin headwind from input costs and debt has nearly doubled post-Dalco.

Lever 2 · Value-added mix — BUILDING. AMD delivered Rs1,839 Cr revenue (+21%), 15.1% EBITDA margins — AA-rated, growing 18-20% CAGR with defense, industrial composites, and filtration as structural sub-segments; as AMD grows from ~22% to a larger revenue share, blended margins structurally improve. What proves it keeps working: AMD Structural Re-rating Engine. It stops working if AMD quarterly revenue growth below 18% OR consolidated OPM below 10.5% in any quarter.

Lever 1 · Operating leverage — BUILDING. Garmenting hit 42 million pieces (+12%) and Rs2,000 Cr+ revenue in FY26 — now capacity-constrained with demand automatic; path to mid-teen EBITDA margins over 2-3 years as factories mature. What proves it keeps working: Garmenting Verticalization Operating Leverage. It stops working if AMD quarterly revenue growth below 18% OR consolidated OPM below 10.5% in any quarter.

Lever 10 · New geographies — BUILDING. UK and EU FTAs ratified — duty-free access eliminates competitive disadvantage vs Bangladesh; garmenting is currently underrepresented in Arvind's EU/UK portfolio with 'great headroom to grow' per management. What proves it keeps working: EU/UK FTA Geographical Expansion. It stops working if AMD quarterly revenue growth below 18% OR consolidated OPM below 10.5% in any quarter.

Lever 7 · Consolidation — BUILDING. Denim 60 million meters (+15% FY26 full year), woven 136 million meters (all-time high, +5%) — both at or near full capacity utilization; incremental volume opportunity limited to 5-7% expansion. What proves it keeps working: Fabric Utilization at Historical Highs. It stops working if AMD quarterly revenue growth below 18% OR consolidated OPM below 10.5% in any quarter.

Sources: our stock research file (17 May 2026) · quarterly results through Jun 26 · the company’s own earnings calls. The story check is re-scored every results season; the record below never changes.

Revenue Revenue is the top line: everything the company billed its customers in the period.

Arvind Ltd reported ₹2,501 Cr of revenue in the Jun 26 quarter, +24.7% year on year. That is the 8th straight quarter of year-on-year growth. Over 10 years it has compounded at 1.5% a year. The last full year, FY26, came in at ₹9,303 Cr. The last four reported quarters add to ₹9,798 Cr.

Why this happened. The UK FTA benefit is expected to start flowing from FY27. Arvind does approximately Rs200 Cr of business in the UK currently, with management expecting this to at least double in the next few years. The EU FTA (expected full approval by end-CY26) levels the playing field against Bangladesh competitors who previously held duty-free access. This is a structural unlock for garmenting, as full-package garments (not just fabric exports) benefit most from the FTA. The risk is implementation timeline: ratification processes can take 12+ months, meaning near-term benefit is likely FY27-FY28 weighted rather than immediate.

FY26 revenue came in at ₹9,303 Cr (+11.7% on the year), capping 10 years at 1.5% compound. The latest quarter (Jun 26) printed ₹2,501 Cr, +24.7% year on year — the 8th consecutive quarter of year-over-year growth.

Pace check: the last four quarters averaged +15.4% growth against the decade's 1.5% — the current year is running faster than its own long-run rate.

Acceleration check: trailing-twelve-month revenue grew +15.2% over the last 4 quarters against +12.7%/yr over the last 8 — stabilising; TTM profit +13.7% vs +15.0%/yr — stabilising.

Operating margin Operating margin is what is left of every ₹100 of sales after running the business, before interest and tax. It is the cleanest read on pricing power and cost control.

Arvind Ltd's operating margin is 10.0% in the Jun 26 quarter, +1.0 percentage points against the same quarter a year ago. Across 13 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged 9.0% to 14.0%. The current quarter sits inside that band.

Why this happened. AMD is Arvind's highest-quality business with the most durable growth visibility. Q3 FY26 delivered the segment's record quarterly revenue of Rs496 Cr (+32% YoY, 15.5% EBITDA margins) driven by defense orders, industrial composites (Vande Bharat program), and Human Protection. The AMD demerger into a wholly-owned subsidiary Arvind Advanced Materials Limited (effective September 2025) provides structural optionality. The Dalco acquisition adds US market entry with non-woven and industrial filtration capabilities at mid-teen margins. Human Protection, Industrial, and Composites sub-segments are diversified — no single segment dominates. The key risk: AMD's project-based lumpy revenue…

The latest quarter's operating margin is 10.0%, +1.0 pp against the same quarter a year ago. Across 13 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged 9.0%–14.0%.

Why the margin moved: operating margin went +0.8 pp year on year while gross margin went −1.4 pp — the gain came mostly from the gross line: input costs and pricing.

Net profit Net profit is what survives every cost, interest and tax — the number EPS, dividends and book value all grow from.

Arvind Ltd earned ₹58.0 Cr of net profit in the Jun 26 quarter, +5.5% year on year. It is the 2nd consecutive quarter of growth. Full-year FY26 profit was ₹427 Cr. The 10-year compound rate is 3.1%. That is 2.3% of the quarter's revenue. The same quarter a year earlier earned ₹55.0 Cr.

Jun 26 profit was ₹58.0 Cr, +5.5% year on year — the 2nd consecutive quarter of growth. On the full year, FY26 printed ₹427 Cr (+16.3%), and the 10-year compound rate is 3.1%.

Why profit moved: revenue contributed +24.7% and the margin +1.0 pp — the quarter was revenue-led, with the margin roughly flat.

Pace comparison, last four quarters: profit +19.3% vs revenue +15.4%. Profit is growing faster than sales — fixed costs are being spread over a bigger base, and each extra rupee of revenue drops more to the bottom line.

Cash flow — the router The P&L says what was earned; the cash-flow statement says what actually arrived. Operating cash flow (CFO) against profit is the cleanest lie detector in the accounts.

Over the last 3 fiscal years 203% of Arvind Ltd's reported profit arrived as operating cash — the cash follows the profit. In FY26 that was ₹867 Cr of operating cash against ₹427 Cr of profit. After ₹417 Cr of capital spending, ₹450 Cr was left as free cash.

FY26: operating cash of ₹867 Cr against reported profit of ₹427 Cr, leaving free cash of ₹450 Cr after ₹417 Cr of capital spending. Across the last 3 fiscal years the conversion rate is 203% of profit.

Cash-flow readings here are annual — that is the resolution our series carries, so this section moves once a year.

Why conversion sits at 203%: the cash cycle stretched 29 days between FY21 and FY26 — more of each rupee of profit waits inside the cycle before arriving.

Router verdict: the bigger cash user is investment — capital spending ran 1.7× depreciation over three years, so the next section's job is to check what that build-out is buying.

Where the cash goes Working capital is the cash tied up between paying suppliers and getting paid: debtor days (customers owe), inventory days (stock waits), and the cash conversion cycle (the whole loop, in days of sales).

Arvind Ltd's cash conversion cycle runs 73 days in FY26, up from 44 days in FY21. Capital spending ran ₹1,422 Cr over the last 3 years. At FY26 sales of ₹9,303 Cr each day of that cycle holds about ₹25.5 Cr, so roughly ₹1,861 Cr sits inside the business at any moment.

FY26: debtors at 57 days, inventory at 177 days — roughly 5.8 months of stock waiting to sell; that is where the cash sits while it waits — for a full cycle of 73 days, looser than FY21's 44.

The full loop: cash goes out to suppliers and production on day 0; stock waits 177 days to sell; customers pay about 57 days after that; and suppliers themselves are paid at 160 days — netting out to the 73-day cycle.

In money terms: at FY26 sales of ₹9,303 Cr, each day of the cycle holds about ₹25.5 Cr — so the 73-day loop keeps roughly ₹1,861 Cr sitting inside the business at any moment.

On the investment side: capital spending of ₹1,422 Cr over the last 3 fiscal years against ₹815 Cr of depreciation — the company is building well ahead of wear-and-tear. Capital work-in-progress stands at ₹119 Cr (FY26) — capacity paid for but not yet earning.

The synthesis: the cash is going into capacity, not disappearing into the cycle — the question becomes whether the new capacity earns.

Return on capital Return on capital employed (ROCE) is the profit the whole business earns on all the money in it — equity and debt together. It is the single best test of whether growth creates value or just size.

Arvind Ltd earns a ROCE of 14% in FY26. That is up from a trough of 5% in FY21. Return on invested capital clears the cost of that capital by −2.3 percentage points, so growth here is not yet paying for the capital it uses. The wiring behind it is 4.6% net margin on 1.05× asset turns.

FY26 ROCE is 14%, recovered from a FY21 trough of 5% — the full ladder below shows the fall and the climb, undoctored.

🚨 Why the return is what it is — the wiring (FY26): 4.6% net margin × 1.05× asset turns × 2.18× balance-sheet leverage ≈ 10.5% on equity. Margin does its share; leverage is a meaningful part of the equation.

The capstone test — ROIC − WACC: 9.7% − 12.0% = a −2.3 pp spread. The 12.0% is a standing assumption for the cost of capital in India, not a per-stock estimate — read the sign and the size of the spread, not the decimals. Negative — growth at these returns destroys value until the returns recover.

Debt Debt-to-equity says how much of the business is funded by borrowings. Low is the safe corner; the trend matters as much as the level.

Arvind Ltd carries total debt of ₹1,660 Cr against shareholder equity of ₹4,141 Cr as of Mar 26, a debt-to-equity of 0.40. On the annual view that ratio went from 0.62 in FY22 to 0.40 in FY26. Read the returns elsewhere on this page with that leverage in mind.

Mar 26: total debt of ₹1,660 Cr against shareholder equity of ₹4,141 Cr — a debt-to-equity of 0.40. On the annual view, debt-to-equity went from 0.62 (FY22) to 0.40 (FY26). Read the returns on this page with that leverage in mind.

Ownership Who owns the stock, quarter by quarter: promoters (the controlling owners), foreign and domestic institutions, and the public. Steady accumulation by people close to the numbers is a signal; a quiet register is also an answer.

Domestic institutions added 5.6 points of Arvind Ltd over 8 quarters, the biggest move on the register. That takes domestic institutions to 22.8% of the company. Foreign institutions moved −2.4 points over the same window, to 15.9%. The register is read on the four disclosed classes only; nothing is inferred between filings.

The register over the last two years — Domestic institutions: +5.6 points over 8 quarters to 22.8%; Foreign institutions: −2.4 points over 8 quarters to 15.9%; Promoters: −1.5 points over 8 quarters to 38.1%.

Why the register moved: rotation — foreign institutions −2.4 points against domestic institutions +5.6 points over 8 quarters, with promoters −1.5 points — one class of institutions handing the register to the other, not a verdict change by the people closest to the numbers.

Safety line The Z-score estimates how far a company sits from balance-sheet distress — above roughly 3 is safe, below roughly 1.8 is the danger zone. It was built for manufacturers, so it is not applied to banks and lenders.

Arvind Ltd: the Z-score reads 3.03. A Z-score above roughly 3 reads as safe and below roughly 1.8 as the distress zone, so this sits well clear of distress. It is a distance-to-distress estimate from the balance sheet, not a forecast of failure.

Why it matters: a Z-score of 3.03 sits well clear of the distress zone — the balance sheet is not the risk here.

The safety line in one sentence: the Z-score reads 3.03.

Valuation P/E is the price of ₹1 of annual profit: how many rupees the market pays for each rupee the company earns in a year.

Arvind Ltd trades at 35.5× P/E, about the priciest it has ever traded. Its long-run median P/E is 10.5×, measured across 10.5 years of weekly readings. This places the multiple against the stock’s own record, and says nothing about what the business is worth.

Today's P/E of 35.5× is about the priciest it has ever traded, against a long-run median of 10.5× measured over 10.5 years of weekly readings. This is a comparison against the stock's own history — not a claim about what it is worth.

🚨 Why the multiple sits where it does: over the past year annual EPS moved +17.0% against a +99.2% price move — the price outran earnings, pushing the multiple UP its own range.

The price move, decomposed: over 5y, of the +42.3%/yr price move, ~+35.2%/yr came from earnings growth and ~+7.1 pp from the multiple (expanding); over 10y, of the +18.7%/yr price move, ~+2.8%/yr came from earnings growth and ~+15.9 pp from the multiple (expanding). The split is the honest approximate (price return minus earnings growth); it makes the rally itself visible instead of hiding it behind the percentile.

Put together: the multiple is full against its own past, so the story rests on the earnings line underneath it, not the multiple.

What the price assumes This reading works the multiple backwards. It asks one question: what yearly rate of profit growth is a buyer at the market price already paying for? The number is the growth rate that makes eleven years of profit — six years growing, then five fading — add up to that day's market price, once each year is discounted at 11% a year.

At its price on 13 June 2026, Arvind Ltd was priced for profit growth of about 19.4% a year. Profit itself has compounded 3.1% a year over the past 10 years. The market pays that at 35.5× P/E, the 99th percentile of its own 11-year range.

What the two numbers say together. The multiple is full against its own past, and the growth the price is paying for is far above what this company has actually delivered. Both readings sit on the same earnings, so they are one reading rather than two.

How to hold this number: it is a reading of one day's price, taken on 13 June 2026, not a running figure. A higher price is paying for more growth and a lower price for less, so it moves whenever the price does, and this page does not restate it between measurements. Every other number on this page is read off the live quote.

Stage: Topping out Every business sits somewhere on a fundamental arc, and this page names the spot before anything else. The last twelve quarters of revenue, profit and EPS growth — plus the return the business earns on its capital — are read as curves: Deteriorating (the curves are falling), Turning around (a trough has just formed and the last few quarters lift off it), Improving (the climb off the trough is sustained), Consistent (steadily positive with healthy returns), Topping out (still high but decelerating from the peak). When the curves genuinely disagree the read is Mixed; too little history is No read. CAGR (compound annual growth rate) is the smooth yearly pace that turns the starting value into the latest one — the fairest way to compare growth across different time spans. Read the columns together: if the 1-year number towers over the 10-year, recent growth is running hotter than the long-run trend. A dash means that window is not held, or the base year was a loss (where a growth rate is not meaningful).

Arvind Ltd reads as topping out on its fundamental arc. Topping out — profit and EPS growth have decelerated hard (profit growth +31.9% at its peak → +13.7% latest) while ROCE still reads 15.9%. The read is built from 12 quarters across 4 curves, on full evidence.

Why it matters: decelerating from a peak is where good stories quietly end — the multiple usually notices late.

4-Factor Sector Score

64.1/100 — rank 1 of 2 in Textiles · 97% evidence confidence

Arvind Ltd scores 64.1 out of 100 against the 2 companies it is compared with in Textiles, ranking 1. Balanced evidence: keep at normal research priority and require another comparable period before raising conviction.

The four contributions add to the total exactly: 21.7 + 14.3 + 11.9 + 16.2 = 64.1. This is the SAME number shown on the sector comparison — it is computed once, for the whole peer set, and read here.

What would change it: The read weakens if profit growth turns negative or margin improvement reverses while sector-relative strength deteriorates.

Said versus delivered

What Arvind Ltd's management promised, set against what actually arrived — 4 tracked promises on the record. Read straight from the company’s own earnings calls. A promise that slipped stays on this page after it is met.

Dalco FY27 Growth Guidance Reset · 13 August 2026. In May 2026, management said Dalco should grow in the mid-teens and that capacity would not constrain 15% growth. In Aug 2026, management reset current-year growth to 9-10%; although integration and a higher capex cycle were cited, management did not reconcile why the previously stated annual capex plan and available capacity headroom no longer supported the earlier target.

Dalco Debt Paydown Timeline Extended · 13 August 2026. In May 2026, management said it aimed to almost wind down the acquisition debt over the next couple of years. In Aug 2026, management explicitly moved repayment to the full five-year term, a material change in the deleveraging pace that affects leverage and cash-flow assumptions.

🚨 Advanced Materials EBITDA Margin Guidance Raised Without Explanation · 16 May 2026. In the Jan 2026 call management explicitly guided to a long-term sustainable EBITDA margin range of 14-15% for the Advanced Materials business, treating any quarter above 15% as an outperformance driven by profitable orders. In the May 2026 call management revised the aspirational margin range upward to 15-16% without providing a clear explanation for what structurally changed, despite acknowledging that Dalco (at high-teens margins) is not yet consolidated in this outlook.

Shift From No Fabric Capacity Growth to 5-7% Expansion · 16 May 2026. In the Jan 2026 call management was emphatic that they were not aggressively investing in the fabric side and did not want to grow the fabric footprint beyond a certain point, directing incremental capital to garmenting instead. In the May 2026 call management disclosed a 5-7% fabric capacity expansion described as coming after a very long time, without reconciling this with the prior stated reluctance to expand fabric.

Every quote above is taken word for word from the company’s own earnings calls.

Frequently asked questions