Aries Agro Ltd

Price story Before the numbers, the tape. A stock price moves through four repeating seasons: a flat base (stage 1), an advance (2), a top (3), a decline (4). Where the price sits in that cycle frames everything below.

Aries Agro Ltd trades at ₹388, building a base and 4 weeks into that stage. That is +13.7% against its own 200-day average. It sits at 73% of a 52-week range of ₹274 to ₹429. On relative strength it has been ahead of the NIFTY 500 on a trailing-13-week view for 8 straight weeks.

Today the stock is building a base — week 4 of stage 1. At ₹388 it trades +13.7% versus its 200-day average and sits at 73% of its 52-week range (₹274–₹429).

Against the market, two honest reads. Cumulative: over the last 10.0 years the stock moved +253% while the NIFTY 500 moved +244% — ahead of the index over the full window. Recent form: on a trailing-13-week view the stock has been ahead for 8 straight weeks — the ribbon below is that same metric, week by week.

What would end the trend, mechanically: two Friday closes in a row below the 200-day line. That is the exit rule — no debates.

Story check

Aries Agro Ltd's story is not scored yet against the markers our research file set on 17 May 2026. Where it sits in its own cycle: CYCLE_BOTTOM_TO_EARLY_EXPANSION. Still open: Q4 (Jan-Mar) is structurally loss-making in 5 of the last 6 years — monsoon-driven demand collapses create a persistent PAT drag that makes annualized earnings noisy.

Our read, 17 May 2026. A specialist micronutrient pioneer quietly deleveraging and re-expanding margins — cheap at 11x PE while PAT has compounded 75% in FY25 and the sector wind turns structural.

From the numbers. PE at 34th percentile of 10Y range (current 11.3x vs median 12x). Historical cycle shows prior trough at 5.8x (Mar 2020) followed by expansion to 20.1x (Mar 2024). Current cycle is EARNINGS_DRIVEN — EPS growing while PE…

From the price. Price stage 1, week 4 — above its 200-day line, relative strength rising.

From the research. A specialist micronutrient pioneer quietly deleveraging and re-expanding margins — cheap at 11x PE while PAT has compounded 75% in FY25 and the sector wind turns structural.

🚨 Where they disagree. PE at 34th percentile of 10Y range (current 11.3x vs median 12x). Historical cycle shows prior trough at 5.8x (Mar 2020) followed by expansion to 20.1x (Mar 2024). Current cycle is EARNINGS_DRIVEN — EPS growing while PE compresses. FIIs have risen from 1.78% to 2.91% over 8 quarters, a slow but directional positive. CYCLE_BOTTOM + GOLDEN_SETUP signals from pe_pb_cycle agent indicate setup is favorable but low_reliability flag noted due to null TTM data fields.

What is proven. A specialist micronutrient pioneer quietly deleveraging and re-expanding margins — cheap at 11x PE while PAT has compounded 75% in FY25 and the sector wind turns structural.

What is not proven yet. Q4 (Jan-Mar) is structurally loss-making in 5 of the last 6 years — monsoon-driven demand collapses create a persistent PAT drag that makes annualized earnings noisy.

The test written in advance. Monsoon / Agricultural Seasonality — Monsoon / Agricultural Seasonality Q1 FY27 (Jun 2026) revenue YoY — must sustain ≥15% growth to validate base case by the next result.

The test written in advance. Trademark Litigation and Transfer Pricing Disputes — Trademark Litigation and Transfer Pricing Disputes Any exchange filing on litigation outcome or IT department assessment orders by the next result.

The test written in advance. Raw Material Price Volatility (Imported Minerals) — Raw Material Price Volatility (Imported Minerals) Q2 FY27 OPM vs INR/USD rate — if OPM falls below 12% in peak season, raw material pressure is the culprit by the next result.

What the company does. FY25 closed with revenue +20.5% to ₹622 Cr and PAT +75% to ₹34 Cr — operating leverage is real, with OPM recovering from 11% to a trajectory above 14% in H1 FY26. Debt has fallen from ₹96 Cr in FY23 to ~₹44 Cr by Mar-2025 and interest costs halved YoY in Q3 FY26 (₹1.96 Cr vs ₹4.81 Cr) — every rupee of deleveraging drops directly to PAT. At 11.6x PE vs sector peers trading at 15-20x, Aries is priced like a commodity company despite holding one of the largest market shares in the chelated micronutrient segment in India.

Lever 1 · Operating leverage — BUILDING. Revenue growing 18-20% YoY while PAT grows 38-75% — operating leverage is translating every incremental rupee of sales at 2-3x the rate to the bottom line. What proves it keeps working: Operating Leverage Inflection. It stops working if Q1 FY27 (Jun 2026) revenue YoY — must sustain ≥15% growth to validate base case.

Lever 7 · Consolidation — BUILDING. Debt halved from ₹96 Cr (FY23) to ₹44 Cr (Mar-2025); interest fell -59% YoY in Q3 FY26 to just ₹1.96 Cr — this directly boosts PAT without requiring any revenue growth. What proves it keeps working: Deleveraging — Interest Cost Collapse. It stops working if Q1 FY27 (Jun 2026) revenue YoY — must sustain ≥15% growth to validate base case.

Lever 14 · A bigger market to sell into — BUILDING. India's Soil Health Card scheme has created pull demand for micronutrients; global chelated micronutrients market growing at 9.7% CAGR; Asia-Pacific holds 42.8% of global market. What proves it keeps working: Sector Tailwind — Micronutrient Demand Structural Growth. It stops working if Q1 FY27 (Jun 2026) revenue YoY — must sustain ≥15% growth to validate base case.

Lever 10 · New geographies — BUILDING. Amarak Chemicals UAE associate restart and a Sulphur Bentonite facility contract in Jebel Ali (signed July 2024) provide a Middle East + Africa gateway for FY26-27 revenue growth. What proves it keeps working: International Expansion — UAE Facility Restart + Africa/Vietnam. It stops working if Q1 FY27 (Jun 2026) revenue YoY — must sustain ≥15% growth to validate base case.

Sources: our stock research file (17 May 2026) · quarterly results through Dec 25. The story check is re-scored every results season; the record below never changes.

Revenue Revenue is the top line: everything the company billed its customers in the period.

Aries Agro Ltd reported ₹202 Cr of revenue in the Dec 25 quarter, +18.8% year on year. That is the 9th straight quarter of year-on-year growth. Over 10 years it has compounded at 8.4% a year. The last full year, FY25, came in at ₹622 Cr. The last four reported quarters add to ₹695 Cr.

Why this happened. Aries has reduced total debt from ₹96 crore in FY23 to approximately ₹44 crore by March 2025. The compounding benefit: not only does PAT improve directly from lower interest, but ROCE and ROE improve as the capital base becomes more efficient. Working capital receivables have also been compressed from 120-130 days to 70-80 days, releasing cash into the business. This driver is largely self-sustaining as long as the business generates positive operating cash flow.

FY25 revenue came in at ₹622 Cr (+20.5% on the year), capping 10 years at 8.4% compound. The latest quarter (Dec 25) printed ₹202 Cr, +18.8% year on year — the 9th consecutive quarter of year-over-year growth.

Pace check: the last four quarters averaged +15.7% growth against the decade's 8.4% — the current year is running faster than its own long-run rate.

Acceleration check: trailing-twelve-month revenue grew +14.7% over the last 4 quarters against +17.3%/yr over the last 8 — stabilising; TTM profit +38.7% vs +69.3%/yr — rolling over.

Operating margin Operating margin is what is left of every ₹100 of sales after running the business, before interest and tax. It is the cleanest read on pricing power and cost control.

Aries Agro Ltd's operating margin is 14.0% in the Dec 25 quarter, +1.0 percentage points against the same quarter a year ago. Across 12 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged 10.0% to 21.0%. The current quarter sits inside that band.

Why this happened. The core driver of the investment thesis. FY25 saw revenue +20.5% while PAT jumped 75% — textbook positive operating leverage from a company that was over-leveraged and under-earning relative to its asset base. In H1 FY26, Q2's OPM of 19.1% and Q3's 14.2% (vs 11-12% in FY24 quarters) confirm the expansion is structural, not just one quarter. Interest savings from deleveraging are amplifying the effect: Q3 FY26 interest was ₹1.96 Cr vs ₹4.81 Cr prior year — a ₹2.85 Cr direct PAT contribution from financing alone each quarter.

The latest quarter's operating margin is 14.0%, +1.0 pp against the same quarter a year ago. Across 12 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged 10.0%–21.0%.

Why the margin moved: operating margin went +1.4 pp year on year while gross margin went −0.2 pp — the gain came mostly below the gross line: operating leverage, with costs spread over a bigger revenue base.

Net profit Net profit is what survives every cost, interest and tax — the number EPS, dividends and book value all grow from.

Aries Agro Ltd earned ₹17.0 Cr of net profit in the Dec 25 quarter, +54.5% year on year. It is the 3rd consecutive quarter of growth. Full-year FY25 profit was ₹33.0 Cr. The 10-year compound rate is 5.7%. That is 8.4% of the quarter's revenue. The same quarter a year earlier earned ₹11.0 Cr.

Dec 25 profit was ₹17.0 Cr, +54.5% year on year — the 3rd consecutive quarter of growth. On the full year, FY25 printed ₹33.0 Cr (+83.3%), and the 10-year compound rate is 5.7%.

Why profit moved: revenue contributed +18.8% and the margin +1.0 pp — the quarter was revenue-led, with the margin roughly flat.

Pace comparison, last four quarters: profit +34.2% vs revenue +15.7%. Profit is growing faster than sales — fixed costs are being spread over a bigger base, and each extra rupee of revenue drops more to the bottom line.

Cash flow — the router The P&L says what was earned; the cash-flow statement says what actually arrived. Operating cash flow (CFO) against profit is the cleanest lie detector in the accounts.

Over the last 3 fiscal years 352% of Aries Agro Ltd's reported profit arrived as operating cash — the cash follows the profit. In FY25 that was ₹105 Cr of operating cash against ₹33.0 Cr of profit. After ₹31.0 Cr of capital spending, ₹74.0 Cr was left as free cash.

FY25: operating cash of ₹105 Cr against reported profit of ₹33.0 Cr, leaving free cash of ₹74.0 Cr after ₹31.0 Cr of capital spending. Across the last 3 fiscal years the conversion rate is 352% of profit.

Cash-flow readings here are annual — that is the resolution our series carries, so this section moves once a year.

Why conversion sits at 352%: the cash cycle tightened 253 days between FY20 and FY25 — cash that used to wait in the cycle now reaches the bank sooner.

Router verdict: the bigger cash user is investment — capital spending ran 3.1× depreciation over three years, so the next section's job is to check what that build-out is buying.

Where the cash goes Working capital is the cash tied up between paying suppliers and getting paid: debtor days (customers owe), inventory days (stock waits), and the cash conversion cycle (the whole loop, in days of sales).

Aries Agro Ltd's cash conversion cycle runs 159 days in FY25, down from 412 days in FY20. Capital spending ran ₹77.0 Cr over the last 3 years. At FY25 sales of ₹622 Cr each day of that cycle holds about ₹1.7 Cr, so roughly ₹271 Cr sits inside the business at any moment.

FY25: debtors at 69 days, inventory at 150 days — roughly 4.9 months of stock waiting to sell; that is where the cash sits while it waits — for a full cycle of 159 days, tighter than FY20's 412.

The full loop: cash goes out to suppliers and production on day 0; stock waits 150 days to sell; customers pay about 69 days after that; and suppliers themselves are paid at 60 days — netting out to the 159-day cycle.

In money terms: at FY25 sales of ₹622 Cr, each day of the cycle holds about ₹1.7 Cr — so the 159-day loop keeps roughly ₹271 Cr sitting inside the business at any moment.

On the investment side: capital spending of ₹77.0 Cr over the last 3 fiscal years against ₹25.0 Cr of depreciation — the company is building well ahead of wear-and-tear. Capital work-in-progress stands at ₹10.0 Cr (FY25) — capacity paid for but not yet earning.

The synthesis: the cash is going into capacity, not disappearing into the cycle — the question becomes whether the new capacity earns.

Return on capital Return on capital employed (ROCE) is the profit the whole business earns on all the money in it — equity and debt together. It is the single best test of whether growth creates value or just size.

Aries Agro Ltd earns a ROCE of 18% in FY25. That is up from a trough of 10% in FY16. Return on invested capital clears the cost of that capital by +1.6 percentage points, so growth here adds value rather than only size. The wiring behind it is 5.3% net margin on 1.07× asset turns.

FY25 ROCE is 18%, recovered from a FY16 trough of 10% — the full ladder below shows the fall and the climb, undoctored.

Why the return is what it is — the wiring (FY25): 5.3% net margin × 1.07× asset turns × 2.00× balance-sheet leverage ≈ 11.3% on equity. Margin does its share; leverage is a meaningful part of the equation.

The capstone test — ROIC − WACC: 13.6% − 12.0% = a +1.6 pp spread. The 12.0% is a standing assumption for the cost of capital in India, not a per-stock estimate — read the sign and the size of the spread, not the decimals. Positive but thin — value creation with little room for error.

Debt Debt-to-equity says how much of the business is funded by borrowings; interest cover says how many times operating profit pays the interest bill. Low and high, respectively, is the safe corner.

Aries Agro Ltd carries ₹49.0 Cr of borrowings against ₹290 Cr of equity in FY25, a debt-to-equity of 0.17. Operating profit covers the interest bill 4×. Over 5 years borrowings went from ₹150 Cr to ₹49.0 Cr. Capital spending ran ₹77.0 Cr across the last 3 of those years.

FY25: borrowings of ₹49.0 Cr against equity of ₹290 Cr — a debt-to-equity of 0.17. Operating profit covers the interest bill 4×. Over 5 years borrowings went from ₹150 Cr to ₹49.0 Cr while capital spending ran ₹77.0 Cr in just the last 3 — the build-out is being paid for out of cash, not debt.

Ownership Who owns the stock, quarter by quarter: promoters (the controlling owners), foreign and domestic institutions, and the public. Steady accumulation by people close to the numbers is a signal; a quiet register is also an answer.

No holder of Aries Agro Ltd moved a full percentage point over the last two years — the register is quiet. Foreign institutions moved +0.0 points over the same window, to 3.3%. The register is read on the four disclosed classes only; nothing is inferred between filings.

The register over the last two years — Promoters: +0.0 points over 8 quarters to 52.7%; Foreign institutions: +0.0 points over 8 quarters to 3.3%; Domestic institutions: +0.0 points over 8 quarters to 0.0%.

Safety line The Z-score estimates how far a company sits from balance-sheet distress — above roughly 3 is safe, below roughly 1.8 is the danger zone. It was built for manufacturers, so it is not applied to banks and lenders.

Aries Agro Ltd: the Z-score is not available for this stock, so we say so rather than invent one. It is a distance-to-distress estimate from the balance sheet, not a forecast of failure. The debt, cash-flow and return sections above carry the balance-sheet evidence this page does hold, and each of them states its own reporting date.

The safety line in one sentence: the Z-score is not available for this stock, so we say so rather than invent one.

Valuation P/E is the price of ₹1 of annual profit: how many rupees the market pays for each rupee the company earns in a year.

Aries Agro Ltd trades at 11.6× P/E, mid-range by its own standards (43rd percentile). Its long-run median P/E is 12.3×, measured across 10.0 years of weekly readings. This places the multiple against the stock’s own record, and says nothing about what the business is worth.

Today's P/E of 11.6× is mid-range by its own standards (43rd percentile), against a long-run median of 12.3× measured over 10.0 years of weekly readings. This is a comparison against the stock's own history — not a claim about what it is worth.

Why the multiple sits where it does: over the past year annual EPS moved +75.1% against a +45.1% price move — earnings outran the price, pushing the multiple DOWN its own range.

The price move, decomposed: over 5y, of the +35.9%/yr price move, ~+29.2%/yr came from earnings growth and ~+6.7 pp from the multiple (expanding); over 10y, of the +13.5%/yr price move, ~+23.2%/yr came from earnings growth and ~−9.7 pp from the multiple (compressing). The split is the honest approximate (price return minus earnings growth); it makes the rally itself visible instead of hiding it behind the percentile.

Put together: the multiple is unremarkable against its own past, so the story rests on the earnings line underneath it, not the multiple.

What the price assumes This reading works the multiple backwards. It asks one question: what yearly rate of profit growth is a buyer at the market price already paying for? The number is the growth rate that makes eleven years of profit — six years growing, then five fading — add up to that day's market price, once each year is discounted at 11% a year.

At its price on 13 June 2026, Aries Agro Ltd was priced for profit growth of about 3.9% a year. Profit itself has compounded 5.7% a year over the past 10 years. The market pays that at 11.6× P/E, the 43rd percentile of its own 10-year range.

What the two numbers say together. The multiple is unremarkable against its own past, and the growth the price is paying for is close to what this company has actually delivered. Both readings sit on the same earnings, so they are one reading rather than two.

How to hold this number: it is a reading of one day's price, taken on 13 June 2026, not a running figure. A higher price is paying for more growth and a lower price for less, so it moves whenever the price does, and this page does not restate it between measurements. Every other number on this page is read off the live quote.

Stage: No read Every business sits somewhere on a fundamental arc, and this page names the spot before anything else. The last twelve quarters of revenue, profit and EPS growth — plus the return the business earns on its capital — are read as curves: Deteriorating (the curves are falling), Turning around (a trough has just formed and the last few quarters lift off it), Improving (the climb off the trough is sustained), Consistent (steadily positive with healthy returns), Topping out (still high but decelerating from the peak). When the curves genuinely disagree the read is Mixed; too little history is No read. CAGR (compound annual growth rate) is the smooth yearly pace that turns the starting value into the latest one — the fairest way to compare growth across different time spans. Read the columns together: if the 1-year number towers over the 10-year, recent growth is running hotter than the long-run trend. A dash means that window is not held, or the base year was a loss (where a growth rate is not meaningful).

Aries Agro Ltd reads as no read on its fundamental arc. Under eight usable quarters on the growth trio — not enough history for an honest trajectory read. The read is built from 9 quarters across 2 curves, on partial evidence.

Why it matters: with too little history, an honest page says so instead of guessing a trajectory.

One or more growth curves carry a base-effect spike — a large year-on-year move off a near-zero or loss-making comparable quarter. Those spikes are capped before the classifier reads the trajectory, and shown pinned on the chart, so a single distorted quarter does not drive the stage call.

Return readings here are annual, not quarterly — read as level and direction only; they can confirm the growth curves but never drive the stage on their own.

Fewer than eight usable quarters on the growth curves — this page will not guess a trajectory from a stub of history.

Frequently asked questions