Aries Agro Ltd

Price story Before the numbers, the tape. A stock price moves through four repeating seasons: a flat base (stage 1), an advance (2), a top (3), a decline (4). Where the price sits in that cycle frames everything below.

Aries Agro Ltd trades at ₹472, in a confirmed uptrend and 5 weeks into that stage. That is +26.8% against its own 200-day average. It sits at 86% of a 52-week range of ₹301 to ₹500. On relative strength it has been ahead of the NIFTY 500 on a trailing-13-week view for 6 straight weeks.

Today the stock is in a confirmed uptrend — week 5 of stage 2, confirmed. At ₹472 it trades +26.8% versus its 200-day average and sits at 86% of its 52-week range (₹301–₹500).

Against the market, two honest reads. Cumulative: over the last 10.4 years the stock moved +330% while the NIFTY 500 moved +242% — ahead of the index over the full window. Recent form: on a trailing-13-week view the stock has been ahead for 6 straight weeks — the ribbon below is that same metric, week by week.

What would end the trend, mechanically: two Friday closes in a row below the 200-day line. That is the exit rule — no debates.

Story check

Aries Agro Ltd's story is not scored yet against the markers our research file set on 17 May 2026. Where it sits in its own cycle: CYCLE_BOTTOM_TO_EARLY_EXPANSION. Still open: Q4 (Jan-Mar) is structurally loss-making in 5 of the last 6 years — monsoon-driven demand collapses create a persistent PAT drag that makes annualized earnings noisy.

Our read, 17 May 2026. A specialist micronutrient pioneer quietly deleveraging and re-expanding margins — cheap at 11x PE while PAT has compounded 75% in FY25 and the sector wind turns structural.

From the numbers. PE at 34th percentile of 10Y range (current 11.3x vs median 12x). Historical cycle shows prior trough at 5.8x (Mar 2020) followed by expansion to 20.1x (Mar 2024). Current cycle is EARNINGS_DRIVEN — EPS growing while PE…

From the price. Price stage 2, week 5 — above its 200-day line, relative strength rising.

From the research. A specialist micronutrient pioneer quietly deleveraging and re-expanding margins — cheap at 11x PE while PAT has compounded 75% in FY25 and the sector wind turns structural.

🚨 Where they disagree. PE at 34th percentile of 10Y range (current 11.3x vs median 12x). Historical cycle shows prior trough at 5.8x (Mar 2020) followed by expansion to 20.1x (Mar 2024). Current cycle is EARNINGS_DRIVEN — EPS growing while PE compresses. FIIs have risen from 1.78% to 2.91% over 8 quarters, a slow but directional positive. CYCLE_BOTTOM + GOLDEN_SETUP signals from pe_pb_cycle agent indicate setup is favorable but low_reliability flag noted due to null TTM data fields.

What is proven. A specialist micronutrient pioneer quietly deleveraging and re-expanding margins — cheap at 11x PE while PAT has compounded 75% in FY25 and the sector wind turns structural.

What is not proven yet. Q4 (Jan-Mar) is structurally loss-making in 5 of the last 6 years — monsoon-driven demand collapses create a persistent PAT drag that makes annualized earnings noisy.

Layer 1 read, 22 August 2026 — KEEP. The cheap-and-turning story is still true, but the debt-repayment engine behind it has already run out. Comparing like quarters, the business really is growing: June profit per share went Rs 5.59, Rs 7.71, Rs 11.47 over three years and the latest June quarter grew revenue 16.8% and profit 50%, clearing the thesis's own 15% test. The problem is the second engine. The thesis leans on interest costs collapsing from Rs 4.81 Cr to Rs 1.96 Cr as its strongest evidence, but the full quarterly series shows June 2026 back at Rs 5 Cr, exactly where it was a year earlier — that saving is finished. And with no earnings call ever held by this company, there is no management voice to check any of it against.

What would change Layer 1’s mind. The frozen thesis names the September-2026 quarter's peak-season operating margin as its proof point: milestone M3 requires 17% or better. Sharpened to this layer: if September 2026 prints operating margin below 15% while interest stays at or above Rs 5 Cr, then both engines are gone at once — the operating-leverage story and the deleveraging story — and the widening March loss becomes the trend rather than the seasonal exception. That flips this to a DROP. In the other direction, a September…

Layer 2 read, 22 August 2026 — ADVANCE. A dated external check still supports the recovery, but no management call backs it. The frozen record has no public concall and describes forward guidance as opaque. Even so, the stock-level operating-leverage model and the correctly matched sector social item support the direction, with no external finding that breaks it.

What would change Layer 2’s mind. A current sector q4_risks finding that an input-cost or policy shock is pushing Aries below the Timeline's peak-season margin watch level, with no offsetting catalyst, would flip ADVANCE to DROP.

Layer 3 read, 22 August 2026 — DEPLOY. The earnings recovery survives, but monsoon and imported-input risk require a small position. The latest like-quarter move was led by revenue rather than a one-off, while the recurring March loss remains the seasonal weak point. The web sweep aligns with Timeline R3 on imported-input risk, and C016 confirms there is no concall to test management's explanation, so DEPLOY is limited to starter size.

What would change Layer 3’s mind. A peak-season quarter with a year-on-year margin decline and no renewed interest-cost saving would show both recovery engines have failed and would flip DEPLOY to DROP.

CIO read, 22 August 2026 — BENCH. NOT ADMITTED (incoming, benched) · forward-asymmetry 59/100 · CLEAR_NO_CONTEST. June profit rose from Rs 7 crore to Rs 10 crore to Rs 15 crore over three years, and the card shows a 7.7-point positive sustain gap. But the shares are at a fresh Stage 4 peak after a 3.48-times run and the company has no public earnings call, so this cannot displace a stronger name.

The test written in advance. Monsoon / Agricultural Seasonality — Monsoon / Agricultural Seasonality Q1 FY27 (Jun 2026) revenue YoY — must sustain ≥15% growth to validate base case by the next result.

The test written in advance. Trademark Litigation and Transfer Pricing Disputes — Trademark Litigation and Transfer Pricing Disputes Any exchange filing on litigation outcome or IT department assessment orders by the next result.

The test written in advance. Raw Material Price Volatility (Imported Minerals) — Raw Material Price Volatility (Imported Minerals) Q2 FY27 OPM vs INR/USD rate — if OPM falls below 12% in peak season, raw material pressure is the culprit by the next result.

What the company does. FY25 closed with revenue +20.5% to ₹622 Cr and PAT +75% to ₹34 Cr — operating leverage is real, with OPM recovering from 11% to a trajectory above 14% in H1 FY26. Debt has fallen from ₹96 Cr in FY23 to ~₹44 Cr by Mar-2025 and interest costs halved YoY in Q3 FY26 (₹1.96 Cr vs ₹4.81 Cr) — every rupee of deleveraging drops directly to PAT. At 11.6x PE vs sector peers trading at 15-20x, Aries is priced like a commodity company despite holding one of the largest market shares in the chelated micronutrient segment in India.

Lever 1 · Operating leverage — BUILDING. Revenue growing 18-20% YoY while PAT grows 38-75% — operating leverage is translating every incremental rupee of sales at 2-3x the rate to the bottom line. What proves it keeps working: Operating Leverage Inflection. It stops working if Q1 FY27 (Jun 2026) revenue YoY — must sustain ≥15% growth to validate base case.

Lever 7 · Consolidation — BUILDING. Debt halved from ₹96 Cr (FY23) to ₹44 Cr (Mar-2025); interest fell -59% YoY in Q3 FY26 to just ₹1.96 Cr — this directly boosts PAT without requiring any revenue growth. What proves it keeps working: Deleveraging — Interest Cost Collapse. It stops working if Q1 FY27 (Jun 2026) revenue YoY — must sustain ≥15% growth to validate base case.

Lever 14 · A bigger market to sell into — BUILDING. India's Soil Health Card scheme has created pull demand for micronutrients; global chelated micronutrients market growing at 9.7% CAGR; Asia-Pacific holds 42.8% of global market. What proves it keeps working: Sector Tailwind — Micronutrient Demand Structural Growth. It stops working if Q1 FY27 (Jun 2026) revenue YoY — must sustain ≥15% growth to validate base case.

Lever 10 · New geographies — BUILDING. Amarak Chemicals UAE associate restart and a Sulphur Bentonite facility contract in Jebel Ali (signed July 2024) provide a Middle East + Africa gateway for FY26-27 revenue growth. What proves it keeps working: International Expansion — UAE Facility Restart + Africa/Vietnam. It stops working if Q1 FY27 (Jun 2026) revenue YoY — must sustain ≥15% growth to validate base case.

Sources: our stock research file (17 May 2026) · quarterly results through Jun 26. The story check is re-scored every results season; the record below never changes.

Revenue Revenue is the top line: everything the company billed its customers in the period.

Aries Agro Ltd reported ₹188 Cr of revenue in the Jun 26 quarter, +16.8% year on year. That is the 11th straight quarter of year-on-year growth. Over 10 years it has compounded at 10.9% a year. The last full year, FY26, came in at ₹740 Cr. The last four reported quarters add to ₹779 Cr.

Why this happened. Aries has reduced total debt from ₹96 crore in FY23 to approximately ₹44 crore by March 2025. The compounding benefit: not only does PAT improve directly from lower interest, but ROCE and ROE improve as the capital base becomes more efficient. Working capital receivables have also been compressed from 120-130 days to 70-80 days, releasing cash into the business. This driver is largely self-sustaining as long as the business generates positive operating cash flow.

FY26 revenue came in at ₹740 Cr (+19.0% on the year), capping 10 years at 10.9% compound. The latest quarter (Jun 26) printed ₹188 Cr, +16.8% year on year — the 11th consecutive quarter of year-over-year growth.

Pace check: the last four quarters averaged +21.3% growth against the decade's 10.9% — the current year is running faster than its own long-run rate.

Acceleration check: trailing-twelve-month revenue grew +19.3% over the last 4 quarters against +19.3%/yr over the last 8 — stabilising; TTM profit +30.6% vs +49.6%/yr — rolling over.

Operating margin Operating margin is what is left of every ₹100 of sales after running the business, before interest and tax. It is the cleanest read on pricing power and cost control.

Aries Agro Ltd's operating margin is 14.0% in the Jun 26 quarter, +0.0 percentage points against the same quarter a year ago. Across 13 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged 10.0% to 21.0%. The current quarter sits inside that band.

Why this happened. The core driver of the investment thesis. FY25 saw revenue +20.5% while PAT jumped 75% — textbook positive operating leverage from a company that was over-leveraged and under-earning relative to its asset base. In H1 FY26, Q2's OPM of 19.1% and Q3's 14.2% (vs 11-12% in FY24 quarters) confirm the expansion is structural, not just one quarter. Interest savings from deleveraging are amplifying the effect: Q3 FY26 interest was ₹1.96 Cr vs ₹4.81 Cr prior year — a ₹2.85 Cr direct PAT contribution from financing alone each quarter.

The latest quarter's operating margin is 14.0%, +0.0 pp against the same quarter a year ago. Across 13 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged 10.0%–21.0%.

Why the margin moved: operating margin went +0.9 pp year on year while gross margin went +0.8 pp — the gain came mostly from the gross line: input costs and pricing.

Net profit Net profit is what survives every cost, interest and tax — the number EPS, dividends and book value all grow from.

Aries Agro Ltd earned ₹15.0 Cr of net profit in the Jun 26 quarter, +50.0% year on year. Full-year FY26 profit was ₹42.0 Cr. The 10-year compound rate is 18.0%. That is 8.0% of the quarter's revenue. The same quarter a year earlier earned ₹10.0 Cr. 3 of the last 12 reported quarters were loss-making.

Jun 26 profit was ₹15.0 Cr, +50.0% year on year. On the full year, FY26 printed ₹42.0 Cr (+27.3%), and the 10-year compound rate is 18.0%.

Why profit moved: revenue contributed +16.8% and the margin +0.0 pp — the quarter was revenue-led, with the margin roughly flat.

Pace comparison, last four quarters: profit +36.6% vs revenue +21.3%. Profit is growing faster than sales — fixed costs are being spread over a bigger base, and each extra rupee of revenue drops more to the bottom line.

Cash flow — the router The P&L says what was earned; the cash-flow statement says what actually arrived. Operating cash flow (CFO) against profit is the cleanest lie detector in the accounts.

Over the last 3 fiscal years 287% of Aries Agro Ltd's reported profit arrived as operating cash — the cash follows the profit. In FY26 that was ₹86.0 Cr of operating cash against ₹42.0 Cr of profit. After ₹47.0 Cr of capital spending, ₹39.0 Cr was left as free cash.

FY26: operating cash of ₹86.0 Cr against reported profit of ₹42.0 Cr, leaving free cash of ₹39.0 Cr after ₹47.0 Cr of capital spending. Across the last 3 fiscal years the conversion rate is 287% of profit.

Cash-flow readings here are annual — that is the resolution our series carries, so this section moves once a year.

Why conversion sits at 287%: the cash cycle tightened 166 days between FY21 and FY26 — cash that used to wait in the cycle now reaches the bank sooner.

Router verdict: the bigger cash user is investment — capital spending ran 3.9× depreciation over three years, so the next section's job is to check what that build-out is buying.

Where the cash goes Working capital is the cash tied up between paying suppliers and getting paid: debtor days (customers owe), inventory days (stock waits), and the cash conversion cycle (the whole loop, in days of sales).

Aries Agro Ltd's cash conversion cycle runs 122 days in FY26, down from 288 days in FY21. Capital spending ran ₹109 Cr over the last 3 years. At FY26 sales of ₹740 Cr each day of that cycle holds about ₹2.0 Cr, so roughly ₹247 Cr sits inside the business at any moment.

FY26: debtors at 46 days, inventory at 148 days — roughly 4.9 months of stock waiting to sell; that is where the cash sits while it waits — for a full cycle of 122 days, tighter than FY21's 288.

The full loop: cash goes out to suppliers and production on day 0; stock waits 148 days to sell; customers pay about 46 days after that; and suppliers themselves are paid at 71 days — netting out to the 122-day cycle.

In money terms: at FY26 sales of ₹740 Cr, each day of the cycle holds about ₹2.0 Cr — so the 122-day loop keeps roughly ₹247 Cr sitting inside the business at any moment.

On the investment side: capital spending of ₹109 Cr over the last 3 fiscal years against ₹28.0 Cr of depreciation — the company is building well ahead of wear-and-tear. Capital work-in-progress stands at ₹40.0 Cr (FY26) — capacity paid for but not yet earning.

The synthesis: the cash is going into capacity, not disappearing into the cycle — the question becomes whether the new capacity earns.

Return on capital Return on capital employed (ROCE) is the profit the whole business earns on all the money in it — equity and debt together. It is the single best test of whether growth creates value or just size.

Aries Agro Ltd earns a ROCE of 21% in FY26. That is up from a trough of 10% in FY16. Return on invested capital clears the cost of that capital by +1.6 percentage points, so growth here adds value rather than only size. The wiring behind it is 5.7% net margin on 1.16× asset turns.

FY26 ROCE is 21%, recovered from a FY16 trough of 10% — the full ladder below shows the fall and the climb, undoctored.

Why the return is what it is — the wiring (FY26): 5.7% net margin × 1.16× asset turns × 1.91× balance-sheet leverage ≈ 12.6% on equity. Margin does its share; leverage is a meaningful part of the equation.

The capstone test — ROIC − WACC: 13.6% − 12.0% = a +1.6 pp spread. The 12.0% is a standing assumption for the cost of capital in India, not a per-stock estimate — read the sign and the size of the spread, not the decimals. Positive but thin — value creation with little room for error.

Debt Debt-to-equity says how much of the business is funded by borrowings; interest cover says how many times operating profit pays the interest bill. Low and high, respectively, is the safe corner.

Aries Agro Ltd carries ₹56.0 Cr of borrowings against ₹334 Cr of equity in FY26, a debt-to-equity of 0.17. Operating profit covers the interest bill 4×. Over 5 years borrowings went from ₹143 Cr to ₹56.0 Cr. Capital spending ran ₹109 Cr across the last 3 of those years.

FY26: borrowings of ₹56.0 Cr against equity of ₹334 Cr — a debt-to-equity of 0.17. Operating profit covers the interest bill 4×. Over 5 years borrowings went from ₹143 Cr to ₹56.0 Cr while capital spending ran ₹109 Cr in just the last 3 — the build-out is being paid for out of cash, not debt.

Ownership Who owns the stock, quarter by quarter: promoters (the controlling owners), foreign and domestic institutions, and the public. Steady accumulation by people close to the numbers is a signal; a quiet register is also an answer.

No holder of Aries Agro Ltd moved a full percentage point over the last two years — the register is quiet. Foreign institutions moved +0.0 points over the same window, to 3.1%. The register is read on the four disclosed classes only; nothing is inferred between filings.

The register over the last two years — Promoters: +0.0 points over 8 quarters to 52.7%; Foreign institutions: +0.0 points over 8 quarters to 3.1%; Domestic institutions: +0.0 points over 8 quarters to 0.0%.

Safety line The Z-score estimates how far a company sits from balance-sheet distress — above roughly 3 is safe, below roughly 1.8 is the danger zone. It was built for manufacturers, so it is not applied to banks and lenders.

Aries Agro Ltd: the Z-score is not available for this stock, so we say so rather than invent one. It is a distance-to-distress estimate from the balance sheet, not a forecast of failure. The debt, cash-flow and return sections above carry the balance-sheet evidence this page does hold, and each of them states its own reporting date.

The safety line in one sentence: the Z-score is not available for this stock, so we say so rather than invent one.

Valuation P/E is the price of ₹1 of annual profit: how many rupees the market pays for each rupee the company earns in a year.

Aries Agro Ltd trades at 12.9× P/E, mid-range by its own standards (60th percentile). Its long-run median P/E is 12.1×, measured across 10.4 years of weekly readings. This places the multiple against the stock’s own record, and says nothing about what the business is worth.

Today's P/E of 12.9× is mid-range by its own standards (60th percentile), against a long-run median of 12.1× measured over 10.4 years of weekly readings. This is a comparison against the stock's own history — not a claim about what it is worth.

Why the multiple sits where it does: over the past year annual EPS moved +26.0% against a +14.9% price move — earnings outran the price, pushing the multiple DOWN its own range.

The price move, decomposed: over 5y, of the +25.9%/yr price move, ~+21.3%/yr came from earnings growth and ~+4.6 pp from the multiple (expanding); over 10y, of the +16.9%/yr price move, ~+28.9%/yr came from earnings growth and ~−12.0 pp from the multiple (compressing). The split is the honest approximate (price return minus earnings growth); it makes the rally itself visible instead of hiding it behind the percentile.

Put together: the multiple is unremarkable against its own past, so the story rests on the earnings line underneath it, not the multiple.

What the price assumes This reading works the multiple backwards. It asks one question: what yearly rate of profit growth is a buyer at the market price already paying for? The number is the growth rate that makes eleven years of profit — six years growing, then five fading — add up to that day's market price, once each year is discounted at 11% a year.

Solved at its 27 August 2026 price, Aries Agro Ltd was paying for profit growth of about 4.3% a year. Profit itself has compounded 18.0% a year over the past 10 years. Today the market pays 12.9× P/E, the 60th percentile of its own 10-year range.

What the two numbers say together. The multiple is unremarkable against its own past, and the growth the price is paying for is below what this company has actually delivered.

How to hold this number: it is a reading of one day's price, taken on 27 August 2026, not a running figure — every other number on this page, the multiple included, is read off the live quote as of 18 September 2026. A higher price is paying for more growth and a lower price for less, so it moves whenever the price does, and this page does not restate it between measurements.

Stage: Consistent Every business sits somewhere on a fundamental arc, and this page names the spot before anything else. The last twelve quarters of revenue, profit and EPS growth — plus the return the business earns on its capital — are read as curves: Deteriorating (the curves are falling), Turning around (a trough has just formed and the last few quarters lift off it), Improving (the climb off the trough is sustained), Consistent (steadily positive with healthy returns), Topping out (still high but decelerating from the peak). When the curves genuinely disagree the read is Mixed; too little history is No read. CAGR (compound annual growth rate) is the smooth yearly pace that turns the starting value into the latest one — the fairest way to compare growth across different time spans. Read the columns together: if the 1-year number towers over the 10-year, recent growth is running hotter than the long-run trend. A dash means that window is not held, or the base year was a loss (where a growth rate is not meaningful).

Aries Agro Ltd reads as consistent on its fundamental arc. Consistent — revenue, profit and EPS growth have stayed positive through the window, with ROCE at 21.0% and holding. The read is built from 8 quarters across 4 curves, on partial evidence.

Why it matters: steady curves with healthy returns are the compounding setup — the risk is the price, not the business.

Return readings here are annual, not quarterly — read as level and direction only; they can confirm the growth curves but never drive the stage on their own.

A partial read: at least one curve is short, or the returns curve is not the computed quarterly series — hold the stage word a little more loosely.

4-Factor Sector Score

69.4/100 — rank 1 of 1 in Fertilizers - Phosphatic - Single Super Phosphate · 78% evidence confidence

Aries Agro Ltd scores 69.4 out of 100 against the 1 companies it is compared with in Fertilizers - Phosphatic - Single Super Phosphate, ranking 1. Confirmed research leader: earnings, capital efficiency and relative strength agree. Move to management, catalyst and risk diligence.

The four contributions add to the total exactly: 27.1 + 18.6 + 11.2 + 12.5 = 69.4. This is the SAME number shown on the sector comparison — it is computed once, for the whole peer set, and read here.

What would change it: The read weakens if profit growth turns negative or margin improvement reverses while sector-relative strength deteriorates.

Frequently asked questions