Aditya Vision Ltd

Price story Before the numbers, the tape. A stock price moves through four repeating seasons: a flat base (stage 1), an advance (2), a top (3), a decline (4). Where the price sits in that cycle frames everything below.

Aditya Vision Ltd trades at ₹615, in a confirmed uptrend and 19 weeks into that stage. That is +10.6% against its own 200-day average. It sits at 78% of a 52-week range of ₹451 to ₹660. On relative strength it is currently behind the NIFTY 500 on a trailing-13-week view (3 weeks and counting).

Today the stock is in a confirmed uptrend — week 19 of stage 2, confirmed. At ₹615 it trades +10.6% versus its 200-day average and sits at 78% of its 52-week range (₹451–₹660).

Against the market, two honest reads. Cumulative: over the last 9.7 years the stock moved +40,073% while the NIFTY 500 moved +232% — ahead of the index over the full window. Recent form: on a trailing-13-week view the stock is currently behind (3 weeks and counting; last ahead the week of 2026-08-21) — the ribbon below is that same metric, week by week.

What would end the trend, mechanically: two Friday closes in a row below the 200-day line. That is the exit rule — no debates.

Story check

Aditya Vision Ltd's story is not scored yet against the markers our research file set on 31 May 2026. Where it sits in its own cycle: NEAR_PEAK. Still open: PE 59x on FY26 EPS of Rs 9.05 with PAT growth decelerating to 10.4% YoY — the current price embeds 25%+ PAT growth that has not yet materialized.

What is proven. See the research file

What is not proven yet. PE 59x on FY26 EPS of Rs 9.05 with PAT growth decelerating to 10.4% YoY — the current price embeds 25%+ PAT growth that has not yet materialized.

The test written in advance. PE at 79th percentile with decelerating PAT growth — PE at 79th percentile with decelerating PAT growth FY27 Q1 PAT growth vs PE trajectory by the next result.

The test written in advance. Management guidance credibility erosion — Management guidance credibility erosion Q1 FY27 actuals vs May 2026 framing by the next result.

The test written in advance. Gross margin dilution from electronics/mobile mix shift — Gross margin dilution from electronics/mobile mix shift Q1 FY27 gross margin vs 16% recovery threshold by the next result.

What the company does. Aditya Vision has 207 stores across 4 states with 50%+ of the base now 3+ years old. Revenue CAGR 29% over 5 years (FY21–FY26) with PAT CAGR 42.4%, but FY26 PAT growth decelerated to 10.4% as OpEx surged 50% YoY from expansion spend. The thesis is store-maturity-driven operating leverage: as the 102 stores added in 3 years age into profitability, EBITDA margin should drift from 8.5% toward 9–10%, but at PE 59x the current price already embeds an optimistic scenario.

Lever 1 · Operating leverage — BUILDING. 50%+ of 207 stores are 3+ years old. As new-store drag as % of total declines, EBITDA should drift from 8.5% toward 9–10% without incremental revenue acceleration. What proves it keeps working: Store Maturation Operating Leverage. It stops working if FY27 Q1 PAT growth vs PE trajectory.

Lever 2 · Value-added mix — BUILDING. UP has only 53 stores in 30 of 75 districts. Bihar is near-saturated (118 stores, 38 of 75 districts). UP + MP entry gives a 5-7 year growth runway at 20-25 stores/year. What proves it keeps working: Geographic White-Space Expansion. It stops working if FY27 Q1 PAT growth vs PE trajectory.

Lever 5 · Regulatory approval — BUILDING. H2 FY26 matched H1 revenue for the first time — company repositioning from 'summer-cooling dependent' to 'all-weather' via TVs, mobiles, washing machines. What proves it keeps working: Deseasoning — H2 Contribution Parity. It stops working if FY27 Q1 PAT growth vs PE trajectory.

Lever 7 · Consolidation — BUILDING. Bihar free electricity scheme (125 units/month), UP salary revisions (+30-35%), and Union Budget income tax relief create structural demand uplift in the Hindi heartland. What proves it keeps working: Government-Driven Rural Demand. It stops working if FY27 Q1 PAT growth vs PE trajectory.

Sources: our stock research file (31 May 2026) · quarterly results through Jun 26 · the company’s own earnings calls. The story check is re-scored every results season; the record below never changes.

Revenue Revenue is the top line: everything the company billed its customers in the period.

Aditya Vision Ltd reported ₹1,193 Cr of revenue in the Jun 26 quarter, +26.9% year on year. That is the 12th straight quarter of year-on-year growth. Over 10 years it has compounded at 27.3% a year. The last full year, FY26, came in at ₹2,672 Cr. The last four reported quarters add to ₹2,925 Cr.

Why this happened. Management cited Rs 13,000 Cr direct transfers to women under MREY, 125 units free electricity in Bihar (launched Q2 FY26), and Union Budget tax relief of Rs 1 lakh Cr as demand tailwinds. These schemes are concentrated in Bihar, UP, and Jharkhand — exactly the company's operating geography — and reduce consumer price sensitivity for appliance purchases.

FY26 revenue came in at ₹2,672 Cr (+18.2% on the year), capping 10 years at 27.3% compound. The latest quarter (Jun 26) printed ₹1,193 Cr, +26.9% year on year — the 12th consecutive quarter of year-over-year growth.

Pace check: the last four quarters averaged +26.2% growth against the decade's 27.3% — the current year is running slower than its own long-run rate.

Acceleration check: trailing-twelve-month revenue grew +26.6% over the last 4 quarters against +21.2%/yr over the last 8 — accelerating; TTM profit +29.9% vs +22.3%/yr — accelerating.

Operating margin Operating margin is what is left of every ₹100 of sales after running the business, before interest and tax. It is the cleanest read on pricing power and cost control.

Aditya Vision Ltd's operating margin is 10.0% in the Jun 26 quarter, +0.0 percentage points against the same quarter a year ago. Across 13 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged 1.0% to 10.0%. The current quarter sits inside that band.

Why this happened. Management characterizes the maturation dynamic as a 'pyramid effect' — mature stores contribute disproportionately more EBIT than new stores, and as the 102 stores added in 3 years age, the drag proportion of total OpEx falls. Q4 FY26 SSSG of 18% (vs 6% in Q4 FY25) is the clearest signal that mature stores are accelerating. The forward assumption is that UP stores opened Feb–Mar FY26 (13 percentage points of contribution) will ramp to full annualized contribution in FY27.

The latest quarter's operating margin is 10.0%, +0.0 pp against the same quarter a year ago. Across 13 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged 1.0%–10.0%.

Why the margin moved: operating margin went +0.9 pp year on year while gross margin went +0.7 pp — the gain came mostly from the gross line: input costs and pricing.

Net profit Net profit is what survives every cost, interest and tax — the number EPS, dividends and book value all grow from.

Aditya Vision Ltd earned ₹77.0 Cr of net profit in the Jun 26 quarter, +40.0% year on year. It is the 11th consecutive quarter of growth. Full-year FY26 profit was ₹117 Cr. The 10-year compound rate is 61.0%. That is 6.5% of the quarter's revenue. The same quarter a year earlier earned ₹55.0 Cr.

Jun 26 profit was ₹77.0 Cr, +40.0% year on year — the 11th consecutive quarter of growth. On the full year, FY26 printed ₹117 Cr (+10.4%), and the 10-year compound rate is 61.0%.

Why profit moved: revenue contributed +26.9% and the margin +0.0 pp — the quarter was revenue-led, with the margin roughly flat.

Pace comparison, last four quarters: profit +24.6% vs revenue +26.2%. Profit and revenue are moving roughly in step.

Cash flow — the router The P&L says what was earned; the cash-flow statement says what actually arrived. Operating cash flow (CFO) against profit is the cleanest lie detector in the accounts.

Over the last 3 fiscal years 9% of Aditya Vision Ltd's reported profit arrived as operating cash — a gap worth watching. In FY26 that was ₹75.0 Cr of operating cash against ₹117 Cr of profit. After ₹98.0 Cr of capital spending, ₹−23.0 Cr was left as free cash.

FY26: operating cash of ₹75.0 Cr against reported profit of ₹117 Cr, leaving free cash of ₹−23.0 Cr after ₹98.0 Cr of capital spending. Across the last 3 fiscal years the conversion rate is 9% of profit.

Cash-flow readings here are annual — that is the resolution our series carries, so this section moves once a year.

🚨 Why conversion sits at 9%: the cash cycle stretched 69 days between FY21 and FY26 — more of each rupee of profit waits inside the cycle before arriving. Less than 70% of profit arriving as cash is the thing to watch on this page.

Router verdict: conversion is below par and the cash cycle has stretched 69 days — the next section's job is to find where the cash is stuck.

Where the cash goes Working capital is the cash tied up between paying suppliers and getting paid: debtor days (customers owe), inventory days (stock waits), and the cash conversion cycle (the whole loop, in days of sales).

Aditya Vision Ltd's cash conversion cycle runs 104 days in FY26, up from 35 days in FY21. Capital spending ran ₹247 Cr over the last 3 years. At FY26 sales of ₹2,672 Cr each day of that cycle holds about ₹7.3 Cr, so roughly ₹761 Cr sits inside the business at any moment.

FY26: debtors at 0 days, inventory at 136 days — roughly 4.5 months of stock waiting to sell; that is where the cash sits while it waits — for a full cycle of 104 days, looser than FY21's 35.

The full loop: cash goes out to suppliers and production on day 0; stock waits 136 days to sell; customers pay about 0 days after that; and suppliers themselves are paid at 32 days — netting out to the 104-day cycle.

In money terms: at FY26 sales of ₹2,672 Cr, each day of the cycle holds about ₹7.3 Cr — so the 104-day loop keeps roughly ₹761 Cr sitting inside the business at any moment.

On the investment side: capital spending of ₹247 Cr over the last 3 fiscal years against ₹106 Cr of depreciation — the company is building well ahead of wear-and-tear. Capital work-in-progress stands at ₹6.0 Cr (FY26) — capacity paid for but not yet earning.

The synthesis: the working-capital loop is the cash sink the router flagged — watch the cycle, not the P&L.

Return on capital Return on capital employed (ROCE) is the profit the whole business earns on all the money in it — equity and debt together. It is the single best test of whether growth creates value or just size.

Aditya Vision Ltd earns a ROCE of 17% in FY26. That is up from a trough of 10% in FY18. Return on invested capital clears the cost of that capital by +1.8 percentage points, so growth here adds value rather than only size. The wiring behind it is 4.4% net margin on 1.82× asset turns.

FY26 ROCE is 17%, recovered from a FY18 trough of 10% — the full ladder below shows the fall and the climb, undoctored.

Why the return is what it is — the wiring (FY26): 4.4% net margin × 1.82× asset turns × 2.13× balance-sheet leverage ≈ 17.1% on equity. Margin does its share; leverage is a meaningful part of the equation.

The capstone test — ROIC − WACC: 13.8% − 12.0% = a +1.8 pp spread. The 12.0% is a standing assumption for the cost of capital in India, not a per-stock estimate — read the sign and the size of the spread, not the decimals. Positive but thin — value creation with little room for error.

Debt Debt-to-equity says how much of the business is funded by borrowings. Low is the safe corner; the trend matters as much as the level.

Aditya Vision Ltd carries total debt of ₹573 Cr against shareholder equity of ₹688 Cr as of Mar 26, a debt-to-equity of 0.83. On the annual view that ratio went from 3.57 in FY22 to 0.83 in FY26. Read the returns elsewhere on this page with that leverage in mind.

Mar 26: total debt of ₹573 Cr against shareholder equity of ₹688 Cr — a debt-to-equity of 0.83. On the annual view, debt-to-equity went from 3.57 (FY22) to 0.83 (FY26). Read the returns on this page with that leverage in mind.

Ownership Who owns the stock, quarter by quarter: promoters (the controlling owners), foreign and domestic institutions, and the public. Steady accumulation by people close to the numbers is a signal; a quiet register is also an answer.

Domestic institutions added 13.4 points of Aditya Vision Ltd over 8 quarters, the biggest move on the register. That takes domestic institutions to 21.7% of the company. Promoters moved −6.1 points over the same window, to 47.1%. The register is read on the four disclosed classes only; nothing is inferred between filings.

The register over the last two years — Domestic institutions: +13.4 points over 8 quarters to 21.7%; Promoters: −6.1 points over 8 quarters to 47.1%; Foreign institutions: +4.8 points over 8 quarters to 15.1%.

Why the register moved: domestic institutions drove it (+13.4 points), absorbed on the other side by promoters (−6.1 points) — steady accumulation by institutions reading the same numbers this page reads.

Safety line The Z-score estimates how far a company sits from balance-sheet distress — above roughly 3 is safe, below roughly 1.8 is the danger zone. It was built for manufacturers, so it is not applied to banks and lenders.

Aditya Vision Ltd: the Z-score is not available for this stock, so we say so rather than invent one. It is a distance-to-distress estimate from the balance sheet, not a forecast of failure. The debt, cash-flow and return sections above carry the balance-sheet evidence this page does hold, and each of them states its own reporting date.

Why this happened. The structural shift: cooling appliances were ~48% of Q2 sales in FY25 but fell to 34% in Q2 FY26. The gap was filled by washing machines (+30% growth), TVs (+30%), and mobiles (+20% ASP with 20% volume share gain). If H1/H2 balance holds in FY27, it reduces earnings volatility and lowers the risk premium warranted on the stock.

The safety line in one sentence: the Z-score is not available for this stock, so we say so rather than invent one.

Valuation P/E is the price of ₹1 of annual profit: how many rupees the market pays for each rupee the company earns in a year.

Aditya Vision Ltd trades at 56.8× P/E, mid-range by its own standards (69th percentile). Its long-run median P/E is 40.4×, measured across 9.7 years of weekly readings. This places the multiple against the stock’s own record, and says nothing about what the business is worth.

Today's P/E of 56.8× is mid-range by its own standards (69th percentile), against a long-run median of 40.4× measured over 9.7 years of weekly readings. This is a comparison against the stock's own history — not a claim about what it is worth.

Why the multiple sits where it does: over the past year annual EPS moved +10.4% against a +24.3% price move — the price outran earnings, pushing the multiple UP its own range.

The price move, decomposed: over 5y, of the +46.3%/yr price move, ~+27.8%/yr came from earnings growth and ~+18.5 pp from the multiple (expanding). The split is the honest approximate (price return minus earnings growth); it makes the rally itself visible instead of hiding it behind the percentile.

Put together: the multiple is full against its own past, so the story rests on the earnings line underneath it, not the multiple.

What the price assumes This reading works the multiple backwards. It asks one question: what yearly rate of profit growth is a buyer at the market price already paying for? The number is the growth rate that makes eleven years of profit — six years growing, then five fading — add up to that day's market price, once each year is discounted at 11% a year.

Solved at its 13 June 2026 price, Aditya Vision Ltd was paying for profit growth of about 29.8% a year. Profit itself has compounded 61.0% a year over the past 10 years. Today the market pays 56.8× P/E, the 69th percentile of its own 10-year range.

What the two numbers say together. The multiple is full against its own past, and the growth the price is paying for is below what this company has actually delivered.

How to hold this number: it is a reading of one day's price, taken on 13 June 2026, not a running figure — every other number on this page, the multiple included, is read off the live quote as of 11 September 2026. A higher price is paying for more growth and a lower price for less, so it moves whenever the price does, and this page does not restate it between measurements.

Stage: Mixed Every business sits somewhere on a fundamental arc, and this page names the spot before anything else. The last twelve quarters of revenue, profit and EPS growth — plus the return the business earns on its capital — are read as curves: Deteriorating (the curves are falling), Turning around (a trough has just formed and the last few quarters lift off it), Improving (the climb off the trough is sustained), Consistent (steadily positive with healthy returns), Topping out (still high but decelerating from the peak). When the curves genuinely disagree the read is Mixed; too little history is No read. CAGR (compound annual growth rate) is the smooth yearly pace that turns the starting value into the latest one — the fairest way to compare growth across different time spans. Read the columns together: if the 1-year number towers over the 10-year, recent growth is running hotter than the long-run trend. A dash means that window is not held, or the base year was a loss (where a growth rate is not meaningful).

Aditya Vision Ltd reads as mixed on its fundamental arc. Mixed — no clean majority across the growth curves, ROCE holding at 23.5% — the per-curve reads carry the story. The read is built from 12 quarters across 4 curves, on full evidence.

Why it matters: when the curves disagree, the per-curve reads above matter more than any single verdict.

4-Factor Sector Score

44.8/100 — rank 3 of 3 in Retail - Electronics · 97% evidence confidence

Aditya Vision Ltd scores 44.8 out of 100 against the 3 companies it is compared with in Retail - Electronics, ranking 3. Acceleration candidate, not a confirmed leader: earnings are strong but sector-relative strength is -9.3% and the one-year return is 22.4%. Do not upgrade until sector-relative strength is above zero and another reported period confirms growth.

The four contributions add to the total exactly: 23.6 + 13.1 + 3.1 + 5 = 44.8. This is the SAME number shown on the sector comparison — it is computed once, for the whole peer set, and read here.

What would change it: The read weakens if profit growth turns negative or margin improvement reverses while sector-relative strength deteriorates.

Said versus delivered

What Aditya Vision Ltd's management promised, set against what actually arrived — 4 tracked promises on the record. Read straight from the company’s own earnings calls. A promise that slipped stays on this page after it is met.

Seasonality Narrative Reversal · 31 July 2026. In the May 2026 call, management said the business had moved away from its historical seasonal dependence and described it as an all-weather, all-season company. In the Jul 2026 call, management reverted to describing the business as built around seasonal demand, said cooling categories remain concentrated in summer, and stated there is no way to reduce the seasonality, without reconciling the change; this matters for forecasting revenue mix, working capital and quarterly margins.

Annual Store Addition Guidance Quietly Reduced · 8 May 2026. In both the Nov 2025 and Jan 2026 calls, management consistently guided for 30 to 35 annual store additions, with the Jan 2026 call reaffirming 30 as the standing annual guidance number investors could rely on. In the May 2026 call, management reduced this stated figure to 25 stores per year without any explanation, a 17% cut to the reference number that investors use to model the pace of network expansion and its associated revenue ramp.

🚨 Q1 FY27 Exceptional Demand Narrative Significantly Downgraded · 8 May 2026. In both prior calls, management made explicit and repeated commitments that Q1 FY27 would be an above-trend standout quarter driven by pent-up cooling demand from the weakest summer since the company's inception, and the Jan 2026 call confirmed inventory was being actively accumulated in anticipation of that outsized demand. The May 2026 call, delivered midway through Q1 FY27, instead characterizes May as slightly colder and frames the aspiration as achieving only a normal summer season, a material retreat from the exceptional growth narrative that formed a key assumption in investor FY27 earnings models.

🚨 FY26 Full-Year EBITDA Margin Fell Below the Floor Guided in Jan 2026 · 8 May 2026. In the Jan 2026 call, with nine-month FY26 EBITDA margins at 8.7%, management directly confirmed to an analyst that the full-year outcome would be similar to or better than that figure, providing investors a directional floor for their models. The May 2026 call reports full-year FY26 EBITDA margins of 8.5%, 20 basis points below that guided floor, with the shortfall driven by a Q4 EBITDA margin of only 8.1%, and management did not proactively acknowledge this miss in their prepared remarks.

Every quote above is taken word for word from the company’s own earnings calls.

Frequently asked questions