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NTPC Green Energy Ltd: Why Is It Outperforming Nifty 500?

Active
RS +13.8%Weak

In Week of Mar 28, 2026, NTPC Green Energy Ltd (Power - Generation/Distribution) is outperforming Nifty 500 with +13.8% relative strength. Fundamentals: Weak.

Strong Opportunity

What's Happening

💎PE falling while earnings hold — value emerging
💰Trading 65% above estimated fair value — significant premium

Earnings Acceleration Triggers

1. 8 GW annual renewable capacity addition ramp-up
Q1 FY27 onwardsHIGH
2. Green ammonia export opportunity
FY28MEDIUM
3. Round-the-clock renewable projects at premium tariffs
FY27-FY28MEDIUM

Key Risks

1. Aggressive green ammonia project economics
MEDIUM
2. Renewable capacity addition execution challenges
HIGH

Key Numbers

PAT Growth YoY
-74%
Inflection Down
Revenue YoY
+29%
Stable
Operating Margin
82.0%
-200 bps YoY
PE Ratio
143.0
Current Price
₹95
Fundamental Score
25/100
Weak
3Y PAT CAGR
+66%
Market Cap
80.1K Cr
Valuation
Significantly Overvalued

12-Week Performance

Weekly presence in the outperformers list. Green = beating Nifty 500 by 10%+ that week.

12 weeks agoThis week

Why Are NTPC Green Energy Ltd's Earnings Accelerating?

Based on Q3 FY26 (ended December 31, 2025) earnings • Updated Mar 14, 2026

8 GW annual renewable capacity addition ramp-up

Expected: Q1 FY27 onwardsHIGH confidence+₹12000 Cr revenue

What: NGEL targeting 8 GW capacity addition in both FY27 and FY28 with revenue impact of ₹12,000-15,000 cr annually

Impact: +₹12000 Cr revenue

“Sarit Maheshwari: 'Sir, our plan as of now for FY27 is 8 gigawatt. And we have already commenced work on the various plants which have to give the capacities next year. And likewise, for FY28 also, we are targeting 8 gigawatt of capacity addition.'”

Green ammonia export opportunity

Expected: FY28MEDIUM confidence+₹800 Cr revenue

What: 70,000 MWh/year green ammonia supply contract secured through SECI bid

Impact: +₹800 Cr revenue

“NGEL secured SECI bid for supply of 70,000 megawatts per annum of green ammonia”

Round-the-clock renewable projects at premium tariffs

Expected: FY27-FY28MEDIUM confidence+₹500 Cr revenue

What: 140 MW R24 project secured at ₹4.35/kWh tariff, higher than standard solar rates

Impact: +₹500 Cr revenue

“Ayana secured 140-megawatt round-the-clock renewable project at a tariff of INR4.35 per kilowatt hours”

What Are the Key Risks for NTPC Green Energy Ltd?

Earnings deceleration risks from management commentary

Aggressive green ammonia project economics

MEDIUM

Trigger: If returns fall below 11%

Impact: -300 bps margin impact

Management view: Investor question: 'does the project meet our return threshold of 11%, 12% for higher equity IRR, or are there any plans to reconsider that green ammonia project?'

Monitor: Project IRR vs target

Renewable capacity addition execution challenges

HIGH

Trigger: If quarterly additions fall below 2 GW

Management view: Acknowledged weather-related challenges affecting current operations

Monitor: Quarterly capacity addition vs target

What Is NTPC Green Energy Ltd's Management Saying?

Key quotes from recent conference calls

“Sir, our plan as of now for FY27 is 8 gigawatt. And we have already commenced work on the various plants which have to give the capacities next year. And likewise, for FY28 also, we are targeting 8 gigawatt of capacity addition. — Sarit Maheshwari”
“Consolidated revenue from operations increased by 23% to INR1,946 crores in nine months FY26, while operating EBITDA grew by 25% to INR1,701 crores. EBITDA margin improved to 87%, underscoring the robust profitability of the renewable portfolio. — NTPC Management”
“NGEL secured its maiden battery energy storage project of 80 megawatt by 320 megawatt hours in Kerala through NHPC, won a SECI bid for supply of 70,000 megawatts per annum of green ammonia and Ayana secured 140-megawatt round-the-clock renewable project at a tariff of INR4.35 per kilowatt hours. — NTPC Management”
“We have over 33 gigawatts of capacity under construction, comprising 16.5 gigawatts of coal-based capacity, about 1.9 gigawatts of hydro and around 15 gigawatts of renewable energy, and this is providing a solid foundation for near to medium-term growth. — NTPC Management”

What Is NTPC Green Energy Ltd's Management Guidance?

Forward-looking targets from management for FY27-FY28

Management Tone: BULLISH

Key Milestones

• 8 GW renewable capacity addition in FY27

• 8 GW renewable capacity addition in FY28

• Commissioning of 15 GW renewable capacity under construction

How Fast Is NTPC Green Energy Ltd Growing?

Revenue, profit and margin growth rates

MetricYoY3Y CAGRTrend
Revenue+29%+80%Stable
PAT (Net Profit)-74%+66%Inflection Down
OPM82.0%-200 bpsStable

The above analysis is parsed from publicly available earnings call transcripts. This is educational research only — not investment advice. Last updated Mar 14, 2026.

Other Top Power - Generation/Distribution Stocks Beating Nifty 500

NTPC Ltd
Strong • 8w streak
+27.5%
Adani Power Ltd
Weak
+19.9%
Tata Power Company Ltd
Average
+13.2%
JSW Energy Ltd
Average • 4w streak
+12.7%
NHPC Ltd
Weak
+9.3%
← Back to Power - Generation/DistributionDashboard

Frequently Asked Questions: NTPC Green Energy Ltd

Based on publicly available financial data. This is educational research, not investment advice.

What were NTPC Green Energy Ltd's latest quarterly results?

NTPC Green Energy Ltd's latest quarterly results (Dec 2025) show

  • PAT Growth YoY: -74.2% (inflecting downward)
  • Revenue Growth YoY: +29.3%
  • Operating Margin: 82.0% (stable)

Is NTPC Green Energy Ltd's profit growing or declining?

NTPC Green Energy Ltd's profit is declining with an inflecting downward trend.

  • PAT Growth YoY: -74.2% (latest quarter)
  • PAT Growth QoQ: -80.2% (sequential)
  • 3-Year PAT CAGR: +66.5%
  • Trend: Inflecting downward — consistent growth pattern

What is NTPC Green Energy Ltd's revenue growth trend?

NTPC Green Energy Ltd's revenue growth trend is stable.

  • Revenue Growth YoY: +29.3%
  • Revenue Growth QoQ: +6.7% (sequential)
  • 3-Year Revenue CAGR: +80.0%

How is NTPC Green Energy Ltd's operating margin trending?

NTPC Green Energy Ltd's operating margin is stable.

  • Current OPM: 82.0%
  • OPM Change YoY: -2.0% basis points
  • OPM Change QoQ: -4.0% basis points

What is NTPC Green Energy Ltd's 3-year profit and revenue CAGR?

NTPC Green Energy Ltd's long-term compounding rates

  • 3-Year Profit CAGR: +66.5%
  • 3-Year Revenue CAGR: +80.0%

Is NTPC Green Energy Ltd's growth accelerating or decelerating?

NTPC Green Energy Ltd's earnings growth is inflecting downward with negative momentum on a sequential basis.

  • YoY Acceleration: -174.2% bps
  • Sequential Acceleration: 0.0% bps
  • Margin Warning: Operating margins are under pressure

What is NTPC Green Energy Ltd's trailing twelve month (TTM) performance?

NTPC Green Energy Ltd's trailing twelve month (TTM) performance

  • TTM PAT: ₹556 Cr
  • TTM PAT Growth: +72.1% YoY
  • TTM Revenue: ₹3,000 Cr
  • TTM Revenue Growth: +22.5% YoY
  • TTM Operating Margin: 86.8%

Is NTPC Green Energy Ltd overvalued or undervalued?

NTPC Green Energy Ltd appears significantly overvalued based on our fair value analysis.

  • Valuation Signal: Significantly Overvalued
  • Current PE: 143.0x
  • Price-to-Book: 4.3x

What is NTPC Green Energy Ltd's current PE ratio?

NTPC Green Energy Ltd's current PE ratio is 143.0x.

  • Current PE: 143.0x
  • Market Cap: 80.1K Cr

How does NTPC Green Energy Ltd's valuation compare to its history?

NTPC Green Energy Ltd's current PE is 143.0x.

  • Current PE: 143.0x
  • Valuation Assessment: Significantly Overvalued

What is NTPC Green Energy Ltd's price-to-book ratio?

NTPC Green Energy Ltd's price-to-book ratio is 4.3x.

  • Price-to-Book (P/B): 4.3x
  • Book Value per Share: ₹22
  • Current Price: ₹95

Is NTPC Green Energy Ltd a fundamentally strong company?

NTPC Green Energy Ltd is rated Weak with a fundamental score of 24.89/100. This score is calculated from objective financial metrics

  • Revenue Growth YoY: +29.3% (10% weight)
  • PAT Growth YoY: -74.2% (10% weight)
  • PAT Growth QoQ: -80.2% (10% weight)
  • Margins stable (10% weight)

Is NTPC Green Energy Ltd debt free?

NTPC Green Energy Ltd has a debt-to-equity ratio of N/A.

  • Total Debt: ₹22,000 Cr

What is NTPC Green Energy Ltd's return on equity (ROE) and ROCE?

NTPC Green Energy Ltd's return ratios over recent years

  • FY2024: ROCE 8.0%
  • FY2025: ROCE 5.0%

Is NTPC Green Energy Ltd's cash flow positive?

NTPC Green Energy Ltd's operating cash flow is positive (FY2025).

  • Cash from Operations (CFO): ₹2,000 Cr
  • Free Cash Flow (FCF): ₹-16,000 Cr
  • CFO/PAT Ratio: 422% (strong cash conversion)

What is NTPC Green Energy Ltd's dividend yield?

NTPC Green Energy Ltd currently does not pay a significant dividend (yield 0.00%).

  • Dividend Yield: 0.00%
  • Current Price: ₹95

Who holds NTPC Green Energy Ltd shares — promoters, FII, DII?

NTPC Green Energy Ltd's shareholding pattern (Dec 2025)

  • Promoters: 89.0%
  • FII (Foreign): 1.6%
  • DII (Domestic): 4.8%
  • Public: 4.6%

Is promoter holding increasing or decreasing in NTPC Green Energy Ltd?

NTPC Green Energy Ltd's promoter holding has remained stable recently.

  • Current Promoter Holding: 89.0% (Dec 2025)
  • Previous Quarter: 89.0% (Sep 2025)
  • Change: 0.00% (stable)

How long has NTPC Green Energy Ltd been outperforming Nifty 500?

NTPC Green Energy Ltd has been outperforming Nifty 500 for 3 consecutive weeks, indicating early-stage outperformance.

Is NTPC Green Energy Ltd a new momentum entry or an established outperformer?

NTPC Green Energy Ltd is an established outperformer with 3 weeks of consecutive Nifty 500 outperformance.

What are the growth catalysts for NTPC Green Energy Ltd?

NTPC Green Energy Ltd has 3 key growth catalysts identified from recent earnings analysis

  • 8 GW annual renewable capacity addition ramp-up
  • Green ammonia export opportunity
  • Round-the-clock renewable projects at premium tariffs

What are the key risks in NTPC Green Energy Ltd?

NTPC Green Energy Ltd has 2 key risks worth monitoring

  • Aggressive green ammonia project economics
  • Renewable capacity addition execution challenges

What did NTPC Green Energy Ltd's management say in the latest earnings call?

In Q3 FY26 (ended December 31, 2025), NTPC Green Energy Ltd's management highlighted

  • "Sir, our plan as of now for FY27 is 8 gigawatt. And we have already commenced work on the various plants which have to give the capacities next year. ..."
  • "Consolidated revenue from operations increased by 23% to INR1,946 crores in nine months FY26, while operating EBITDA grew by 25% to INR1,701 crores. E..."
  • "NGEL secured its maiden battery energy storage project of 80 megawatt by 320 megawatt hours in Kerala through NHPC, won a SECI bid for supply of 70,00..."

What is NTPC Green Energy Ltd's management guidance for growth?

NTPC Green Energy Ltd's management has provided the following forward guidance for FY27-FY28

  • Management tone: bullish
  • Milestone: 8 GW renewable capacity addition in FY27
  • Milestone: 8 GW renewable capacity addition in FY28

Is NTPC Green Energy Ltd worth studying for long term investment?

Based on quantitative research signals, here is why NTPC Green Energy Ltd may be worth studying

  • Cash flow is positive — CFO ₹2,000 Cr

What is the investment thesis for NTPC Green Energy Ltd?

NTPC Green Energy Ltd investment thesis summary:

Research Signals (Bull Case)

  • Revenue growing at +29.3% YoY
  • Growth catalyst: 8 GW annual renewable capacity addition ramp-up

Risk Factors (Bear Case)

  • Margins under pressure
  • Appears significantly overvalued
  • Key risk: Aggressive green ammonia project economics

What is the future outlook for NTPC Green Energy Ltd?

NTPC Green Energy Ltd's forward outlook based on current data signals

  • Earnings Trend: inflecting downward
  • Revenue Trend: stable
  • Margin Trend: stable
  • Valuation: Significantly Overvalued
  • Key Catalyst: 8 GW annual renewable capacity addition ramp-up
  • Key Risk: Aggressive green ammonia project economics

The above FAQs are generated from publicly available earnings data and conference call transcripts. This is educational research only. Sector Alpha is not SEBI registered and does not provide investment advice.