Swan Defence and Heavy Industries Ltd

Price story Before the numbers, the tape. A stock price moves through four repeating seasons: a flat base (stage 1), an advance (2), a top (3), a decline (4). Where the price sits in that cycle frames everything below.

Swan Defence and Heavy Industries Ltd trades at ₹2,225, in a confirmed uptrend and 77 weeks into that stage. That is +60.4% against its own 200-day average. It sits at 91% of a 52-week range of ₹372 to ₹2,399. On relative strength it has been ahead of the NIFTY 500 on a trailing-13-week view for 7 straight weeks.

Today the stock is in a confirmed uptrend — week 77 of stage 2, confirmed. At ₹2,225 it trades +60.4% versus its 200-day average and sits at 91% of its 52-week range (₹372–₹2,399).

Against the market, two honest reads. Cumulative: over the last 10.4 years the stock moved +3,521% while the NIFTY 500 moved +280% — ahead of the index over the full window. Recent form: on a trailing-13-week view the stock has been ahead for 7 straight weeks — the ribbon below is that same metric, week by week.

What would end the trend, mechanically: two Friday closes in a row below the 200-day line. That is the exit rule — no debates.

→ The trend is one thing; the bill is another. Are you paying up for it? Next: how the P/E reads against its own history.

Valuation P/E is the price of ₹1 of annual profit: how many rupees the market pays for each rupee the company earns in a year.

P/E does not price Swan Defence and Heavy Industries Ltd — earnings are negative, so there is no multiple to rank against its own history. The revenue and margin lines below are where a turn, when it comes, would show first. On sales the market values Swan Defence and Heavy Industries Ltd at 45.4× its FY26 revenue of ₹282 Cr.

With earnings negative, P/E does not price — there is no multiple to rank against its own history. The revenue and margin lines below are where the turn, when it comes, will show first.

Put together: the multiple is unremarkable against its own past, so the story rests on the earnings line underneath it, not the multiple.

→ Cheap or dear rides on the earnings. Are they actually growing? Next: the fundamental stage — where the business sits in its arc, and how growth has compounded.

Stage: No read Every business sits somewhere on a fundamental arc, and this page names the spot before anything else. The last twelve quarters of revenue, profit and EPS growth — plus the return the business earns on its capital — are read as curves: Deteriorating (the curves are falling), Turning around (a trough has just formed and the last few quarters lift off it), Improving (the climb off the trough is sustained), Consistent (steadily positive with healthy returns), Topping out (still high but decelerating from the peak). When the curves genuinely disagree the read is Mixed; too little history is No read. CAGR (compound annual growth rate) is the smooth yearly pace that turns the starting value into the latest one — the fairest way to compare growth across different time spans. Read the columns together: if the 1-year number towers over the 10-year, recent growth is running hotter than the long-run trend. A dash means that window is not held, or the base year was a loss (where a growth rate is not meaningful).

Swan Defence and Heavy Industries Ltd reads as no read on its fundamental arc. Under eight usable quarters on the growth trio — not enough history for an honest trajectory read. The read is built from 8 quarters across 2 curves, on partial evidence.

Why it matters: with too little history, an honest page says so instead of guessing a trajectory.

Return readings here are annual, not quarterly — read as level and direction only; they can confirm the growth curves but never drive the stage on their own.

Fewer than eight usable quarters on the growth curves — this page will not guess a trajectory from a stub of history.

→ The stage names the trajectory. Next: the revenue line that produces it, quarter by quarter.

4-Factor Sector Score

37.0/100 — rank 3 of 4 in Ship - Docks/Breaking/Repairs · 63% evidence confidence

Swan Defence and Heavy Industries Ltd scores 37.0 out of 100 against the 4 companies it is compared with in Ship - Docks/Breaking/Repairs, ranking 3. Balanced evidence: keep at normal research priority and require another comparable period before raising conviction.

The four contributions add to the total exactly: 18.4 + 0.6 + 10 + 8 = 37. This is the SAME number shown on the sector comparison — it is computed once, for the whole peer set, and read here.

What would change it: The read weakens if profit growth turns negative or margin improvement reverses while sector-relative strength deteriorates.

Revenue Revenue is the top line: everything the company billed its customers in the period.

Swan Defence and Heavy Industries Ltd reported ₹236 Cr of revenue in the Mar 26 quarter, +4,620.0% year on year. That is the 3rd straight quarter of year-on-year growth. Over 10 years it has compounded at −1.0% a year. The last full year, FY26, came in at ₹282 Cr. The last four reported quarters add to ₹282 Cr.

Swan Defence and Heavy Industries Ltd reported ₹236 Cr of revenue in the Mar 26 quarter, +4,620.0% year on year. That is the 3rd straight quarter of year-on-year growth. Over 10 years it has compounded at −1.0% a year. The last full year, FY26, came in at ₹282 Cr. The last four reported quarters add to ₹282 Cr.

FY26 revenue came in at ₹282 Cr (+3,928.6% on the year), capping 10 years at −1.0% compound. The latest quarter (Mar 26) printed ₹236 Cr, +4,620.0% year on year — the 3rd consecutive quarter of year-over-year growth.

Pace check: the last four quarters averaged +3,006.7% growth against the decade's −1.0% — the current year is running faster than its own long-run rate.

→ Revenue grew — did margins hold as it scaled? Next: −106.0% this quarter (+86.0 pp YoY).

Operating margin Operating margin is what is left of every ₹100 of sales after running the business, before interest and tax. It is the cleanest read on pricing power and cost control.

Swan Defence and Heavy Industries Ltd's operating margin is −106.0% in the Mar 26 quarter, +86.0 percentage points against the same quarter a year ago. Across 13 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged −1,536.0% to 25.0%. The current quarter sits inside that band.

Swan Defence and Heavy Industries Ltd's operating margin is −106.0% in the Mar 26 quarter, +86.0 percentage points against the same quarter a year ago. Across 13 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged −1,536.0% to 25.0%. The current quarter sits inside that band.

The latest quarter's operating margin is −106.0%, +86.0 pp against the same quarter a year ago. Across 13 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged −1,536.0%–25.0%.

Why the margin moved: operating margin went +86.3 pp year on year while gross margin went −144.9 pp — the gain came mostly from the gross line: input costs and pricing.

→ Margins held — did that reach the bottom line? Next: profit null in the latest quarter.

Net profit Net profit is what survives every cost, interest and tax — the number EPS, dividends and book value all grow from.

Swan Defence and Heavy Industries Ltd posted a net loss of ₹142 Cr in the Mar 26 quarter. The full FY26 year was a loss of ₹226 Cr. That loss is 60.2% of the quarter's revenue. The same quarter a year earlier lost ₹23.0 Cr. 12 of the last 12 reported quarters were loss-making.

Swan Defence and Heavy Industries Ltd posted a net loss of ₹142 Cr in the Mar 26 quarter. The full FY26 year was a loss of ₹226 Cr. That loss is 60.2% of the quarter's revenue. The same quarter a year earlier lost ₹23.0 Cr. 12 of the last 12 reported quarters were loss-making.

Mar 26 profit was ₹−142 Cr, null year on year. On the full year, FY26 printed ₹−226 Cr (null).

→ Profit rose — but did the cash follow? Next: 12% of the last 2 years' profit arrived as cash.

Cash flow — the router The P&L says what was earned; the cash-flow statement says what actually arrived. Operating cash flow (CFO) against profit is the cleanest lie detector in the accounts.

Over the last 2 fiscal years 12% of Swan Defence and Heavy Industries Ltd's reported profit arrived as operating cash — a gap worth watching. In FY26 that was ₹182 Cr of operating cash against ₹−226 Cr of profit. After ₹81.0 Cr of capital spending, ₹101 Cr was left as free cash.

FY26: operating cash of ₹182 Cr against reported profit of ₹−226 Cr, leaving free cash of ₹101 Cr after ₹81.0 Cr of capital spending. Across the last 2 fiscal years the conversion rate is 12% of profit.

Cash-flow readings here are annual — that is the resolution our series carries, so this section moves once a year.

🚨 Why conversion sits at 12%: the cash cycle tightened 80 days between FY19 and FY26 — cash that used to wait in the cycle now reaches the bank sooner. Less than 70% of profit arriving as cash is the thing to watch on this page.

Router verdict: no single sink dominates — the next section checks both the working-capital cycle and the capital spending.

→ So follow the cash to where it goes. Next: a 725-day cycle and ₹276 Cr of building.

Where the cash goes Working capital is the cash tied up between paying suppliers and getting paid: debtor days (customers owe), inventory days (stock waits), and the cash conversion cycle (the whole loop, in days of sales).

Swan Defence and Heavy Industries Ltd's cash conversion cycle runs 725 days in FY26, down from 805 days in FY19. Capital spending ran ₹276 Cr over the last 3 years. At FY26 sales of ₹282 Cr each day of that cycle holds about ₹0.8 Cr, so roughly ₹560 Cr sits inside the business at any moment.

FY26: debtors at 16 days, inventory at 739 days — roughly 24.3 months of stock waiting to sell; that is where the cash sits while it waits — for a full cycle of 725 days, tighter than FY19's 805.

The full loop: cash goes out to suppliers and production on day 0; stock waits 739 days to sell; customers pay about 16 days after that; and suppliers themselves are paid at 30 days — netting out to the 725-day cycle.

In money terms: at FY26 sales of ₹282 Cr, each day of the cycle holds about ₹0.8 Cr — so the 725-day loop keeps roughly ₹560 Cr sitting inside the business at any moment.

On the investment side: capital spending of ₹276 Cr over the last 3 fiscal years against ₹192 Cr of depreciation — building somewhat ahead of wear-and-tear. Capital work-in-progress stands at ₹166 Cr (FY26) — capacity paid for but not yet earning.

The synthesis: neither the cycle nor the build-out is hoarding the cash — the machine is reasonably clean.

→ Does all this activity actually earn its cost of capital? Next: ROCE is −8% and the ROIC − WACC spread is −25.8 pp.

Return on capital Return on capital employed (ROCE) is the profit the whole business earns on all the money in it — equity and debt together. It is the single best test of whether growth creates value or just size.

Swan Defence and Heavy Industries Ltd earns a ROCE of −8% in FY26. That is up from a trough of −33% in FY22. Return on invested capital clears the cost of that capital by −25.8 percentage points, so growth here is not yet paying for the capital it uses.

FY26 ROCE is −8%, recovered from a FY22 trough of −33% — the full ladder below shows the fall and the climb, undoctored.

🚨 Why the return is what it is — the wiring (FY26): −80.1% net margin × 0.09× asset turns × 45.24× balance-sheet leverage ≈ −326.1% on equity. Margin does its share; leverage is a meaningful part of the equation.

The capstone test — ROIC − WACC: −13.8% − 12.0% = a −25.8 pp spread. The 12.0% is a standing assumption for the cost of capital in India, not a per-stock estimate — read the sign and the size of the spread, not the decimals. Negative — growth at these returns destroys value until the returns recover.

→ Returns like these — is the balance sheet borrowing to make them? Next: debt-to-equity is 39.83.

Debt Debt-to-equity says how much of the business is funded by borrowings. Low is the safe corner; the trend matters as much as the level.

Swan Defence and Heavy Industries Ltd carries total debt of ₹2,788 Cr against shareholder equity of ₹70.0 Cr as of Mar 26, a debt-to-equity of 39.83. On the annual view that ratio went from −1.06 in FY20 to 39.83 in FY26. Read the returns elsewhere on this page with that leverage in mind.

Mar 26: total debt of ₹2,788 Cr against shareholder equity of ₹70.0 Cr — a debt-to-equity of 39.83. On the annual view, debt-to-equity went from −1.06 (FY20) to 39.83 (FY26). Read the returns on this page with that leverage in mind.

→ Who owns this, and are they adding or leaving? Next: Promoters cut 5.0 points over 8 quarters.

Ownership Who owns the stock, quarter by quarter: promoters (the controlling owners), foreign and domestic institutions, and the public. Steady accumulation by people close to the numbers is a signal; a quiet register is also an answer.

Promoters cut 5.0 points of Swan Defence and Heavy Industries Ltd over 8 quarters, the biggest move on the register. That takes promoters to 89.9% of the company. Domestic institutions moved +1.5 points over the same window, to 1.9%. The register is read on the four disclosed classes only; nothing is inferred between filings.

The register over the last two years — Promoters: −5.0 points over 8 quarters to 89.9%; Domestic institutions: +1.5 points over 8 quarters to 1.9%; Foreign institutions: +0.6 points over 8 quarters to 0.7%.

🚨 Why the register moved: promoters drove it (−5.0 points), absorbed on the other side by domestic institutions (+1.5 points) — distribution into the market’s bid.

→ One last check: does the safety math agree? Next: the balance-sheet safety line.

Safety line The Z-score estimates how far a company sits from balance-sheet distress — above roughly 3 is safe, below roughly 1.8 is the danger zone. It was built for manufacturers, so it is not applied to banks and lenders.

Swan Defence and Heavy Industries Ltd: the Z-score is not available for this stock, so we say so rather than invent one. It is a distance-to-distress estimate from the balance sheet, not a forecast of failure. The debt, cash-flow and return sections above carry the balance-sheet evidence this page does hold, and each of them states its own reporting date.

The safety line in one sentence: the Z-score is not available for this stock, so we say so rather than invent one.

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