Petronet LNG Ltd

Price story Before the numbers, the tape. A stock price moves through four repeating seasons: a flat base (stage 1), an advance (2), a top (3), a decline (4). Where the price sits in that cycle frames everything below.

Petronet LNG Ltd trades at ₹274, in a downtrend and 15 weeks into that stage. That is −2.6% against its own 200-day average. It sits at 36% of a 52-week range of ₹246 to ₹323. On relative strength it is currently behind the NIFTY 500 on a trailing-13-week view (1 week and counting).

Today the stock is in a downtrend — week 15 of stage 4, confirmed. At ₹274 it trades −2.6% versus its 200-day average and sits at 36% of its 52-week range (₹246–₹323).

Against the market, two honest reads. Cumulative: over the last 10.4 years the stock moved +135% while the NIFTY 500 moved +280% — behind the index over the full window. Recent form: on a trailing-13-week view the stock is currently behind (1 week and counting; last ahead the week of 2026-07-10) — the ribbon below is that same metric, week by week.

What would end the trend, mechanically: two Friday closes in a row below the 200-day line. That is the exit rule — no debates.

→ The trend is one thing; the bill is another. Are you paying up for it? Next: the P/E sits at the 22nd percentile of its own range.

Valuation P/E is the price of ₹1 of annual profit: how many rupees the market pays for each rupee the company earns in a year.

Petronet LNG Ltd trades at 10.5× P/E, near the bottom of its own range — cheaper only 22% of the time. Its long-run median P/E is 12.8×, measured across 9.9 years of weekly readings. This places the multiple against the stock’s own record, and says nothing about what the business is worth.

Today's P/E of 10.5× is near the bottom of its own range — cheaper only 22% of the time, against a long-run median of 12.8× measured over 9.9 years of weekly readings. This is a comparison against the stock's own history — not a claim about what it is worth.

Why the multiple sits where it does: over the past year annual EPS moved −1.5% against a −9.9% price move — earnings outran the price, pushing the multiple DOWN its own range.

The price move, decomposed: over 5y, of the +4.3%/yr price move, ~+5.9%/yr came from earnings growth and ~−1.6 pp from the multiple (compressing); over 10y, of the +6.5%/yr price move, ~+16.4%/yr came from earnings growth and ~−9.9 pp from the multiple (compressing). The split is the honest approximate (price return minus earnings growth); it makes the rally itself visible instead of hiding it behind the percentile.

Put together: the multiple is low against its own past, so the story rests on the earnings line underneath it, not the multiple.

→ Cheap or dear rides on the earnings. Are they actually growing? Next: the fundamental stage — where the business sits in its arc, and how growth has compounded.

Stage: Mixed Every business sits somewhere on a fundamental arc, and this page names the spot before anything else. The last twelve quarters of revenue, profit and EPS growth — plus the return the business earns on its capital — are read as curves: Deteriorating (the curves are falling), Turning around (a trough has just formed and the last few quarters lift off it), Improving (the climb off the trough is sustained), Consistent (steadily positive with healthy returns), Topping out (still high but decelerating from the peak). When the curves genuinely disagree the read is Mixed; too little history is No read. CAGR (compound annual growth rate) is the smooth yearly pace that turns the starting value into the latest one — the fairest way to compare growth across different time spans. Read the columns together: if the 1-year number towers over the 10-year, recent growth is running hotter than the long-run trend. A dash means that window is not held, or the base year was a loss (where a growth rate is not meaningful).

Petronet LNG Ltd reads as mixed on its fundamental arc. Mixed — revenue, profit and EPS growth are shrinking while ROCE holds at 22.1% — falling growth against firm returns, so no single stage word fits yet. The read is built from 12 quarters across 4 curves, on full evidence.

Why it matters: when the curves disagree, the per-curve reads above matter more than any single verdict.

→ The stage names the trajectory. Next: the revenue line that produces it, quarter by quarter.

4-Factor Sector Score

68.3/100 — rank 1 of 7 in Gas Distribution · 90% evidence confidence

Petronet LNG Ltd scores 68.3 out of 100 against the 7 companies it is compared with in Gas Distribution, ranking 1. Balanced evidence: keep at normal research priority and require another comparable period before raising conviction.

The four contributions add to the total exactly: 20.9 + 20.3 + 13.5 + 13.6 = 68.3. This is the SAME number shown on the sector comparison — it is computed once, for the whole peer set, and read here.

What would change it: The read weakens if profit growth turns negative or margin improvement reverses while sector-relative strength deteriorates.

Revenue Revenue is the top line: everything the company billed its customers in the period.

Petronet LNG Ltd reported ₹9,442 Cr of revenue in the Mar 26 quarter, −23.3% year on year. Over 10 years it has compounded at 4.8% a year. The last full year, FY26, came in at ₹43,495 Cr. The last four reported quarters add to ₹43,495 Cr.

Petronet LNG Ltd reported ₹9,442 Cr of revenue in the Mar 26 quarter, −23.3% year on year. Over 10 years it has compounded at 4.8% a year. The last full year, FY26, came in at ₹43,495 Cr. The last four reported quarters add to ₹43,495 Cr.

FY26 revenue came in at ₹43,495 Cr (−14.7% on the year), capping 10 years at 4.8% compound. The latest quarter (Mar 26) printed ₹9,442 Cr, −23.3% year on year.

Pace check: the last four quarters averaged −14.7% growth against the decade's 4.8% — the current year is running slower than its own long-run rate.

Acceleration check: trailing-twelve-month revenue grew −14.7% over the last 4 quarters against −9.2%/yr over the last 8 — rolling over; TTM profit −1.5% vs +3.5%/yr — rolling over.

→ Revenue slipped — did margins hold as it scaled? Next: 20.0% this quarter (+8.0 pp YoY).

Operating margin Operating margin is what is left of every ₹100 of sales after running the business, before interest and tax. It is the cleanest read on pricing power and cost control.

Petronet LNG Ltd's operating margin is 20.0% in the Mar 26 quarter, +8.0 percentage points against the same quarter a year ago. Across 12 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged 4.0% to 18.0%. The current quarter is running above every full year in that window.

Petronet LNG Ltd's operating margin is 20.0% in the Mar 26 quarter, +8.0 percentage points against the same quarter a year ago. Across 12 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged 4.0% to 18.0%. The current quarter is running above every full year in that window.

The latest quarter's operating margin is 20.0%, +8.0 pp against the same quarter a year ago. Across 12 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged 4.0%–18.0%.

Why the margin moved: operating margin went +7.4 pp year on year while gross margin went +5.9 pp — the gain came mostly from the gross line: input costs and pricing.

→ Margins held — did that reach the bottom line? Next: profit +25.2% in the latest quarter.

Net profit Net profit is what survives every cost, interest and tax — the number EPS, dividends and book value all grow from.

Petronet LNG Ltd earned ₹1,371 Cr of net profit in the Mar 26 quarter, +25.2% year on year. Full-year FY26 profit was ₹3,913 Cr. The 10-year compound rate is 15.5%. That is 14.5% of the quarter's revenue. The same quarter a year earlier earned ₹1,095 Cr.

Petronet LNG Ltd earned ₹1,371 Cr of net profit in the Mar 26 quarter, +25.2% year on year. Full-year FY26 profit was ₹3,913 Cr. The 10-year compound rate is 15.5%. That is 14.5% of the quarter's revenue. The same quarter a year earlier earned ₹1,095 Cr.

Mar 26 profit was ₹1,371 Cr, +25.2% year on year. On the full year, FY26 printed ₹3,913 Cr (−1.5%), and the 10-year compound rate is 15.5%.

Why profit moved: revenue contributed −23.3% and the margin +8.0 pp — the quarter was margin-led: most of the profit growth came from keeping more of each sale.

Pace comparison, last four quarters: profit −1.7% vs revenue −14.7%. Profit is growing faster than sales — fixed costs are being spread over a bigger base, and each extra rupee of revenue drops more to the bottom line.

→ Profit rose — but did the cash follow? Next: 122% of the last 3 years' profit arrived as cash.

Cash flow — the router The P&L says what was earned; the cash-flow statement says what actually arrived. Operating cash flow (CFO) against profit is the cleanest lie detector in the accounts.

Over the last 3 fiscal years 122% of Petronet LNG Ltd's reported profit arrived as operating cash — the cash follows the profit. In FY26 that was ₹4,750 Cr of operating cash against ₹3,913 Cr of profit. After ₹1,905 Cr of capital spending, ₹2,845 Cr was left as free cash.

FY26: operating cash of ₹4,750 Cr against reported profit of ₹3,913 Cr, leaving free cash of ₹2,845 Cr after ₹1,905 Cr of capital spending. Across the last 3 fiscal years the conversion rate is 122% of profit.

Cash-flow readings here are annual — that is the resolution our series carries, so this section moves once a year.

Why conversion sits at 122%: the cash cycle held roughly steady between FY21 and FY26 — so conversion tracks profitability rather than the cycle.

Router verdict: the bigger cash user is investment — capital spending ran 1.7× depreciation over three years, so the next section's job is to check what that build-out is buying.

→ So follow the cash to where it goes. Next: ₹4,050 Cr of building over 3 years.

Where the cash goes Working capital is the cash tied up between paying suppliers and getting paid: debtor days (customers owe), inventory days (stock waits), and the cash conversion cycle (the whole loop, in days of sales).

Petronet LNG Ltd's cash conversion cycle runs 10 days in FY26, down from 14 days in FY21. Capital spending ran ₹4,050 Cr over the last 3 years. At FY26 sales of ₹43,495 Cr each day of that cycle holds about ₹119 Cr, so roughly ₹1,192 Cr sits inside the business at any moment.

FY26: debtors at 9 days, inventory at 9 days — roughly 0.3 months of stock waiting to sell; that is where the cash sits while it waits — for a full cycle of 10 days, tighter than FY21's 14.

The full loop: cash goes out to suppliers and production on day 0; stock waits 9 days to sell; customers pay about 9 days after that; and suppliers themselves are paid at 7 days — netting out to the 10-day cycle.

In money terms: at FY26 sales of ₹43,495 Cr, each day of the cycle holds about ₹119 Cr — so the 10-day loop keeps roughly ₹1,192 Cr sitting inside the business at any moment.

On the investment side: capital spending of ₹4,050 Cr over the last 3 fiscal years against ₹2,421 Cr of depreciation — the company is building well ahead of wear-and-tear. Capital work-in-progress stands at ₹2,497 Cr (FY26) — capacity paid for but not yet earning.

The synthesis: the cash is going into capacity, not disappearing into the cycle — the question becomes whether the new capacity earns.

→ Does all this activity actually earn its cost of capital? Next: ROCE is 23% and the ROIC − WACC spread is −0.1 pp.

Return on capital Return on capital employed (ROCE) is the profit the whole business earns on all the money in it — equity and debt together. It is the single best test of whether growth creates value or just size.

Petronet LNG Ltd earns a ROCE of 23% in FY26. That is up from a trough of 15% in FY16. Return on invested capital clears the cost of that capital by −0.1 percentage points, so growth here is not yet paying for the capital it uses. The wiring behind it is 9.0% net margin on 1.59× asset turns.

FY26 ROCE is 23%, recovered from a FY16 trough of 15% — the full ladder below shows the fall and the climb, undoctored.

🚨 Why the return is what it is — the wiring (FY26): 9.0% net margin × 1.59× asset turns × 1.23× balance-sheet leverage ≈ 17.6% on equity. Margin does its share; leverage is modest — this is an earned return, not a borrowed one.

The capstone test — ROIC − WACC: 11.9% − 12.0% = a −0.1 pp spread. The 12.0% is a standing assumption for the cost of capital in India, not a per-stock estimate — read the sign and the size of the spread, not the decimals. Negative — growth at these returns destroys value until the returns recover.

→ Returns like these — is the balance sheet borrowing to make them? Next: debt-to-equity is 0.11.

Debt Debt-to-equity says how much of the business is funded by borrowings. Low is the safe corner; the trend matters as much as the level.

Petronet LNG Ltd carries total debt of ₹2,341 Cr against shareholder equity of ₹22,285 Cr as of Mar 26, a debt-to-equity of 0.11 — effectively unlevered. On the annual view that ratio went from 0.25 in FY22 to 0.11 in FY26. The returns elsewhere on this page are therefore earned rather than borrowed.

Mar 26: total debt of ₹2,341 Cr against shareholder equity of ₹22,285 Cr — a debt-to-equity of 0.11. On the annual view, debt-to-equity went from 0.25 (FY22) to 0.11 (FY26). The returns on this page are earned, not borrowed.

→ Who owns this, and are they adding or leaving? Next: the register is quiet.

Ownership Who owns the stock, quarter by quarter: promoters (the controlling owners), foreign and domestic institutions, and the public. Steady accumulation by people close to the numbers is a signal; a quiet register is also an answer.

No holder of Petronet LNG Ltd moved a full percentage point over the last two years — the register is quiet. Foreign institutions moved +0.7 points over the same window, to 26.3%. The register is read on the four disclosed classes only; nothing is inferred between filings.

The register over the last two years — Domestic institutions: +0.8 points over 8 quarters to 13.7%; Foreign institutions: +0.7 points over 8 quarters to 26.3%; Promoters: +0.0 points over 8 quarters to 50.0%.

→ One last check: does the safety math agree? Next: the balance-sheet safety line.

Safety line The Z-score estimates how far a company sits from balance-sheet distress — above roughly 3 is safe, below roughly 1.8 is the danger zone. It was built for manufacturers, so it is not applied to banks and lenders.

Petronet LNG Ltd: the Z-score is not available for this stock, so we say so rather than invent one. It is a distance-to-distress estimate from the balance sheet, not a forecast of failure. The debt, cash-flow and return sections above carry the balance-sheet evidence this page does hold, and each of them states its own reporting date.

The safety line in one sentence: the Z-score is not available for this stock, so we say so rather than invent one.

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