Gujarat Gas Ltd

Price story Before the numbers, the tape. A stock price moves through four repeating seasons: a flat base (stage 1), an advance (2), a top (3), a decline (4). Where the price sits in that cycle frames everything below.

Gujarat Gas Ltd trades at ₹353, in a downtrend and 84 weeks into that stage. That is −11.5% against its own 200-day average. It sits at 29% of a 52-week range of ₹308 to ₹460. On relative strength it is currently behind the NIFTY 500 on a trailing-13-week view (1 week and counting).

Today the stock is in a downtrend — week 84 of stage 4, confirmed. At ₹353 it trades −11.5% versus its 200-day average and sits at 29% of its 52-week range (₹308–₹460).

Against the market, two honest reads. Cumulative: over the last 10.2 years the stock moved +227% while the NIFTY 500 moved +262% — behind the index over the full window. Recent form: on a trailing-13-week view the stock is currently behind (1 week and counting; last ahead the week of 2026-06-19) — the ribbon below is that same metric, week by week.

What would end the trend, mechanically: two Friday closes in a row below the 200-day line. That is the exit rule — no debates.

→ The trend is one thing; the bill is another. Are you paying up for it? Next: the P/E sits at the 8th percentile of its own range.

Valuation P/E is the price of ₹1 of annual profit: how many rupees the market pays for each rupee the company earns in a year.

Gujarat Gas Ltd trades at 18.6× P/E, near the bottom of its own range — cheaper only 8% of the time. Its long-run median P/E is 28.8×, measured across 9.8 years of weekly readings. This places the multiple against the stock’s own record, and says nothing about what the business is worth.

Today's P/E of 18.6× is near the bottom of its own range — cheaper only 8% of the time, against a long-run median of 28.8× measured over 9.8 years of weekly readings. This is a comparison against the stock's own history — not a claim about what it is worth.

Why the multiple sits where it does: over the past year annual EPS moved +46.1% against a −25.0% price move — earnings outran the price, pushing the multiple DOWN its own range.

The price move, decomposed: over 5y, of the −11.3%/yr price move, ~+7.0%/yr came from earnings growth and ~−18.3 pp from the multiple (compressing). The split is the honest approximate (price return minus earnings growth); it makes the rally itself visible instead of hiding it behind the percentile.

Put together: the multiple is low against its own past, so the story rests on the earnings line underneath it, not the multiple.

The PEG ratio, which only the second data source carries, is not drawn on this page: its two data sources do not share enough overlapping reported history to be compared. A figure nobody could check is not used to price growth — the gap is a decision, not missing data.

→ Cheap or dear rides on the earnings. Are they actually growing? Next: the fundamental stage — where the business sits in its arc, and how growth has compounded.

Stage: Mixed Every business sits somewhere on a fundamental arc, and this page names the spot before anything else. The last twelve quarters of revenue, profit and EPS growth — plus the return the business earns on its capital — are read as curves: Deteriorating (the curves are falling), Turning around (a trough has just formed and the last few quarters lift off it), Improving (the climb off the trough is sustained), Consistent (steadily positive with healthy returns), Topping out (still high but decelerating from the peak). When the curves genuinely disagree the read is Mixed; too little history is No read. CAGR (compound annual growth rate) is the smooth yearly pace that turns the starting value into the latest one — the fairest way to compare growth across different time spans. Read the columns together: if the 1-year number towers over the 10-year, recent growth is running hotter than the long-run trend. A dash means that window is not held, or the base year was a loss (where a growth rate is not meaningful).

Gujarat Gas Ltd reads as mixed on its fundamental arc. Mixed — revenue growth is rising at +41.2% (single-quarter readings) while profit growth is falling at −47.2% (single-quarter readings) — the curves disagree, so the per-curve reads carry the story. The read is built from 10 quarters across 3 curves, on partial evidence.

Why it matters: when the curves disagree, the per-curve reads above matter more than any single verdict.

One or more growth curves carry a base-effect spike — a large year-on-year move off a near-zero or loss-making comparable quarter. Those spikes are capped before the classifier reads the trajectory, and shown pinned on the chart, so a single distorted quarter does not drive the stage call.

Return readings here are annual, not quarterly — read as level and direction only; they can confirm the growth curves but never drive the stage on their own.

A partial read: at least one curve is short, or the returns curve is not the computed quarterly series — hold the stage word a little more loosely.

→ The stage names the trajectory. Next: the revenue line that produces it, quarter by quarter.

4-Factor Sector Score

46.3/100 — rank 5 of 7 in Gas Distribution · 83% evidence confidence

Gujarat Gas Ltd scores 46.3 out of 100 against the 7 companies it is compared with in Gas Distribution, ranking 5. Balanced evidence: keep at normal research priority and require another comparable period before raising conviction.

The four contributions add to the total exactly: 17.1 + 15.7 + 11.4 + 2.1 = 46.3. This is the SAME number shown on the sector comparison — it is computed once, for the whole peer set, and read here.

What would change it: The read weakens if profit growth turns negative or margin improvement reverses while sector-relative strength deteriorates.

Revenue Revenue is the top line: everything the company billed its customers in the period.

Gujarat Gas Ltd reported ₹5,792 Cr of revenue in the Mar 26 quarter, +41.2% year on year. Over 10 years it has compounded at 14.5% a year. The last full year, FY26, came in at ₹23,614 Cr. The last four reported quarters add to ₹17,101 Cr.

Gujarat Gas Ltd reported ₹5,792 Cr of revenue in the Mar 26 quarter, +41.2% year on year. Over 10 years it has compounded at 14.5% a year. The last full year, FY26, came in at ₹23,614 Cr. The last four reported quarters add to ₹17,101 Cr.

FY26 revenue came in at ₹23,614 Cr (+43.2% on the year), capping 10 years at 14.5% compound. The latest quarter (Mar 26) printed ₹5,792 Cr, +41.2% year on year.

Pace check: the last four quarters averaged +4.1% growth against the decade's 14.5% — the current year is running slower than its own long-run rate.

Acceleration check: trailing-twelve-month revenue grew +3.7% over the last 4 quarters against +4.4%/yr over the last 8 — stabilising; TTM profit −10.6% vs −5.2%/yr — rolling over.

→ Revenue grew — did margins hold as it scaled? Next: 11.0% this quarter (+0.0 pp YoY).

Operating margin Operating margin is what is left of every ₹100 of sales after running the business, before interest and tax. It is the cleanest read on pricing power and cost control.

Gujarat Gas Ltd's operating margin is 11.0% in the Mar 26 quarter, +0.0 percentage points against the same quarter a year ago. Across 12 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged 12.0% to 21.0%. The current quarter is running below every full year in that window.

Gujarat Gas Ltd's operating margin is 11.0% in the Mar 26 quarter, +0.0 percentage points against the same quarter a year ago. Across 12 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged 12.0% to 21.0%. The current quarter is running below every full year in that window.

The latest quarter's operating margin is 11.0%, +0.0 pp against the same quarter a year ago. Across 12 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged 12.0%–21.0%.

🚨 Why the margin moved: operating margin went −0.5 pp year on year while gross margin went −0.4 pp — the loss came mostly from the gross line: input costs and pricing.

→ Margins held — did that reach the bottom line? Next: profit −47.2% in the latest quarter.

Net profit Net profit is what survives every cost, interest and tax — the number EPS, dividends and book value all grow from.

Gujarat Gas Ltd earned ₹152 Cr of net profit in the Mar 26 quarter, −47.2% year on year. Full-year FY26 profit was ₹1,678 Cr. The 10-year compound rate is 24.3%. That is 2.6% of the quarter's revenue. The same quarter a year earlier earned ₹288 Cr.

Gujarat Gas Ltd earned ₹152 Cr of net profit in the Mar 26 quarter, −47.2% year on year. Full-year FY26 profit was ₹1,678 Cr. The 10-year compound rate is 24.3%. That is 2.6% of the quarter's revenue. The same quarter a year earlier earned ₹288 Cr.

Mar 26 profit was ₹152 Cr, −47.2% year on year. On the full year, FY26 printed ₹1,678 Cr (+46.2%), and the 10-year compound rate is 24.3%.

🚨 Why profit moved: revenue contributed +41.2% and the margin +0.0 pp — the quarter was revenue-led, with the margin roughly flat.

Pace comparison, last four quarters: profit −9.2% vs revenue +4.1%. Profit is growing slower than sales — costs are eating the growth before it reaches the bottom line.

→ Profit rose — but did the cash follow? Next: 155% of the last 3 years' profit arrived as cash.

Cash flow — the router The P&L says what was earned; the cash-flow statement says what actually arrived. Operating cash flow (CFO) against profit is the cleanest lie detector in the accounts.

Over the last 3 fiscal years 155% of Gujarat Gas Ltd's reported profit arrived as operating cash — the cash follows the profit. In FY26 that was ₹2,721 Cr of operating cash against ₹1,678 Cr of profit. After ₹6,339 Cr of capital spending, ₹−3,618 Cr was left as free cash.

FY26: operating cash of ₹2,721 Cr against reported profit of ₹1,678 Cr, leaving free cash of ₹−3,618 Cr after ₹6,339 Cr of capital spending. Across the last 3 fiscal years the conversion rate is 155% of profit.

Cash-flow readings here are annual — that is the resolution our series carries, so this section moves once a year.

Why conversion sits at 155%: the cash cycle held roughly steady between FY21 and FY26 — so conversion tracks profitability rather than the cycle.

Router verdict: the bigger cash user is investment — capital spending ran 4.3× depreciation over three years, so the next section's job is to check what that build-out is buying.

→ So follow the cash to where it goes. Next: ₹8,050 Cr of building over 3 years.

Where the cash goes Working capital is the cash tied up between paying suppliers and getting paid: debtor days (customers owe), inventory days (stock waits), and the cash conversion cycle (the whole loop, in days of sales).

Gujarat Gas Ltd's cash conversion cycle runs 17 days in FY26, up from 8 days in FY21. Capital spending ran ₹8,050 Cr over the last 3 years. At FY26 sales of ₹23,614 Cr each day of that cycle holds about ₹64.7 Cr, so roughly ₹1,100 Cr sits inside the business at any moment.

FY26: debtors at 27 days, inventory at 22 days — roughly 0.7 months of stock waiting to sell; that is where the cash sits while it waits — for a full cycle of 17 days, looser than FY21's 8.

The full loop: cash goes out to suppliers and production on day 0; stock waits 22 days to sell; customers pay about 27 days after that; and suppliers themselves are paid at 32 days — netting out to the 17-day cycle.

In money terms: at FY26 sales of ₹23,614 Cr, each day of the cycle holds about ₹64.7 Cr — so the 17-day loop keeps roughly ₹1,100 Cr sitting inside the business at any moment.

On the investment side: capital spending of ₹8,050 Cr over the last 3 fiscal years against ₹1,884 Cr of depreciation — the company is building well ahead of wear-and-tear. Capital work-in-progress stands at ₹836 Cr (FY26) — capacity paid for but not yet earning.

The synthesis: the cash is going into capacity, not disappearing into the cycle — the question becomes whether the new capacity earns.

→ Does all this activity actually earn its cost of capital? Next: ROCE is 18% and the ROIC − WACC spread is −3.2 pp.

Return on capital Return on capital employed (ROCE) is the profit the whole business earns on all the money in it — equity and debt together. It is the single best test of whether growth creates value or just size.

Gujarat Gas Ltd earns a ROCE of 18% in FY26. That is up from a trough of 12% in FY16. Return on invested capital clears the cost of that capital by −3.2 percentage points, so growth here is not yet paying for the capital it uses. The wiring behind it is 7.1% net margin on 0.86× asset turns.

FY26 ROCE is 18%, recovered from a FY16 trough of 12% — the full ladder below shows the fall and the climb, undoctored.

🚨 Why the return is what it is — the wiring (FY26): 7.1% net margin × 0.86× asset turns × 1.49× balance-sheet leverage ≈ 9.1% on equity. Margin does its share; leverage is modest — this is an earned return, not a borrowed one.

The capstone test — ROIC − WACC: 8.8% − 12.0% = a −3.2 pp spread. The 12.0% is a standing assumption for the cost of capital in India, not a per-stock estimate — read the sign and the size of the spread, not the decimals. Negative — growth at these returns destroys value until the returns recover.

→ Returns like these — is the balance sheet borrowing to make them? Next: debt-to-equity is 0.18.

Debt Debt-to-equity says how much of the business is funded by borrowings; interest cover says how many times operating profit pays the interest bill. Low and high, respectively, is the safe corner.

Gujarat Gas Ltd carries ₹3,243 Cr of borrowings against ₹18,438 Cr of equity in FY26, a debt-to-equity of 0.18. Operating profit covers the interest bill 12×. Over 5 years borrowings went from ₹983 Cr to ₹3,243 Cr. Capital spending ran ₹8,050 Cr across the last 3 of those years.

FY26: borrowings of ₹3,243 Cr against equity of ₹18,438 Cr — a debt-to-equity of 0.18. Operating profit covers the interest bill 12×. Over 5 years borrowings went from ₹983 Cr to ₹3,243 Cr while capital spending ran ₹8,050 Cr in just the last 3 — part of the build-out is riding on borrowed money.

→ Who owns this, and are they adding or leaving? Next: Promoters cut 22.0 points over 8 quarters.

Ownership Who owns the stock, quarter by quarter: promoters (the controlling owners), foreign and domestic institutions, and the public. Steady accumulation by people close to the numbers is a signal; a quiet register is also an answer.

Promoters cut 22.0 points of Gujarat Gas Ltd over 8 quarters, the biggest move on the register. That takes promoters to 38.9% of the company. Domestic institutions moved +9.9 points over the same window, to 24.6%. The register is read on the four disclosed classes only; nothing is inferred between filings.

The register over the last two years — Promoters: −22.0 points over 8 quarters to 38.9%; Domestic institutions: +9.9 points over 8 quarters to 24.6%; Foreign institutions: +6.3 points over 8 quarters to 10.6%.

🚨 Why the register moved: promoters drove it (−22.0 points), absorbed on the other side by domestic institutions (+9.9 points) — distribution into the market’s bid.

→ One last check: does the safety math agree? Next: the balance-sheet safety line.

Safety line The Z-score estimates how far a company sits from balance-sheet distress — above roughly 3 is safe, below roughly 1.8 is the danger zone. It was built for manufacturers, so it is not applied to banks and lenders.

Gujarat Gas Ltd: the Z-score is not available for this stock, so we say so rather than invent one. It is a distance-to-distress estimate from the balance sheet, not a forecast of failure. The debt, cash-flow and return sections above carry the balance-sheet evidence this page does hold, and each of them states its own reporting date.

The safety line in one sentence: the Z-score is not available for this stock, so we say so rather than invent one.

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