GAIL (India) Ltd

Price story Before the numbers, the tape. A stock price moves through four repeating seasons: a flat base (stage 1), an advance (2), a top (3), a decline (4). Where the price sits in that cycle frames everything below.

GAIL (India) Ltd trades at ₹171, building a base and 5 weeks into that stage. That is +1.6% against its own 200-day average. It sits at 74% of a 52-week range of ₹137 to ₹183. On relative strength it has been ahead of the NIFTY 500 on a trailing-13-week view for 11 straight weeks.

Today the stock is building a base — week 5 of stage 1, confirmed. At ₹171 it trades +1.6% versus its 200-day average and sits at 74% of its 52-week range (₹137–₹183).

Against the market, two honest reads. Cumulative: over the last 10.3 years the stock moved +169% while the NIFTY 500 moved +274% — behind the index over the full window. Recent form: on a trailing-13-week view the stock has been ahead for 11 straight weeks — the ribbon below is that same metric, week by week.

What would end the trend, mechanically: two Friday closes in a row below the 200-day line. That is the exit rule — no debates.

→ The trend is one thing; the bill is another. Are you paying up for it? Next: the P/E sits at the 61st percentile of its own range.

Valuation P/E is the price of ₹1 of annual profit: how many rupees the market pays for each rupee the company earns in a year.

GAIL (India) Ltd trades at 14.7× P/E, mid-range by its own standards (61st percentile). Its long-run median P/E is 12.4×, measured across 10.4 years of weekly readings. This places the multiple against the stock’s own record, and says nothing about what the business is worth.

Today's P/E of 14.7× is mid-range by its own standards (61st percentile), against a long-run median of 12.4× measured over 10.4 years of weekly readings. This is a comparison against the stock's own history — not a claim about what it is worth.

🚨 Why the multiple sits where it does: over the past year annual EPS moved −39.1% against a −7.6% price move — the price outran earnings, pushing the multiple UP its own range.

The price move, decomposed: over 5y, of the +12.1%/yr price move, ~+4.7%/yr came from earnings growth and ~+7.4 pp from the multiple (expanding); over 10y, of the +8.8%/yr price move, ~+9.6%/yr came from earnings growth and ~−0.8 pp from the multiple (roughly flat). The split is the honest approximate (price return minus earnings growth); it makes the rally itself visible instead of hiding it behind the percentile.

Put together: the multiple is unremarkable against its own past, so the story rests on the earnings line underneath it, not the multiple.

→ Cheap or dear rides on the earnings. Are they actually growing? Next: the fundamental stage — where the business sits in its arc, and how growth has compounded.

Stage: Deteriorating Every business sits somewhere on a fundamental arc, and this page names the spot before anything else. The last twelve quarters of revenue, profit and EPS growth — plus the return the business earns on its capital — are read as curves: Deteriorating (the curves are falling), Turning around (a trough has just formed and the last few quarters lift off it), Improving (the climb off the trough is sustained), Consistent (steadily positive with healthy returns), Topping out (still high but decelerating from the peak). When the curves genuinely disagree the read is Mixed; too little history is No read. CAGR (compound annual growth rate) is the smooth yearly pace that turns the starting value into the latest one — the fairest way to compare growth across different time spans. Read the columns together: if the 1-year number towers over the 10-year, recent growth is running hotter than the long-run trend. A dash means that window is not held, or the base year was a loss (where a growth rate is not meaningful).

GAIL (India) Ltd reads as deteriorating on its fundamental arc. Deteriorating — profit and EPS growth are shrinking (profit growth −39.2% latest against +172.2% at its 12-quarter best), ROCE slipping at 9.4%. The read is built from 12 quarters across 4 curves, on full evidence.

🚨 Why it matters: falling curves mean every cheap-looking ratio below needs a discount for direction.

→ The stage names the trajectory. Next: the revenue line that produces it, quarter by quarter.

4-Factor Sector Score

31.8/100 — rank 7 of 7 in Gas Distribution · 90% evidence confidence

GAIL (India) Ltd scores 31.8 out of 100 against the 7 companies it is compared with in Gas Distribution, ranking 7. Balanced evidence: keep at normal research priority and require another comparable period before raising conviction.

The four contributions add to the total exactly: 8 + 6 + 6.3 + 11.5 = 31.8. This is the SAME number shown on the sector comparison — it is computed once, for the whole peer set, and read here.

What would change it: The read weakens if profit growth turns negative or margin improvement reverses while sector-relative strength deteriorates.

Revenue Revenue is the top line: everything the company billed its customers in the period.

GAIL (India) Ltd reported ₹35,577 Cr of revenue in the Mar 26 quarter, −2.4% year on year. Over 10 years it has compounded at 10.5% a year. The last full year, FY26, came in at ₹1,41,598 Cr. The last four reported quarters add to ₹1,41,598 Cr.

GAIL (India) Ltd reported ₹35,577 Cr of revenue in the Mar 26 quarter, −2.4% year on year. Over 10 years it has compounded at 10.5% a year. The last full year, FY26, came in at ₹1,41,598 Cr. The last four reported quarters add to ₹1,41,598 Cr.

FY26 revenue came in at ₹1,41,598 Cr (−0.2% on the year), capping 10 years at 10.5% compound. The latest quarter (Mar 26) printed ₹35,577 Cr, −2.4% year on year.

Pace check: the last four quarters averaged −0.1% growth against the decade's 10.5% — the current year is running slower than its own long-run rate.

Acceleration check: trailing-twelve-month revenue grew −0.2% over the last 4 quarters against +3.1%/yr over the last 8 — rolling over; TTM profit −39.2% vs −12.5%/yr — rolling over.

→ Revenue slipped — did margins hold as it scaled? Next: 4.0% this quarter (−6.0 pp YoY).

Operating margin Operating margin is what is left of every ₹100 of sales after running the business, before interest and tax. It is the cleanest read on pricing power and cost control.

GAIL (India) Ltd's operating margin is 4.0% in the Mar 26 quarter, −6.0 percentage points against the same quarter a year ago. Across 13 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged 5.0% to 16.0%. The current quarter is running below every full year in that window.

GAIL (India) Ltd's operating margin is 4.0% in the Mar 26 quarter, −6.0 percentage points against the same quarter a year ago. Across 13 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged 5.0% to 16.0%. The current quarter is running below every full year in that window.

The latest quarter's operating margin is 4.0%, −6.0 pp against the same quarter a year ago. Across 13 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged 5.0%–16.0%.

🚨 Why the margin moved: operating margin went −5.6 pp year on year while gross margin went −1.6 pp — the loss came mostly below the gross line: operating leverage, with costs spread over a bigger revenue base.

→ Margins slipped — did that reach the bottom line? Next: profit −40.9% in the latest quarter.

Net profit Net profit is what survives every cost, interest and tax — the number EPS, dividends and book value all grow from.

GAIL (India) Ltd earned ₹1,481 Cr of net profit in the Mar 26 quarter, −40.9% year on year. Full-year FY26 profit was ₹7,582 Cr. The 10-year compound rate is 15.0%. That is 4.2% of the quarter's revenue. The same quarter a year earlier earned ₹2,506 Cr.

GAIL (India) Ltd earned ₹1,481 Cr of net profit in the Mar 26 quarter, −40.9% year on year. Full-year FY26 profit was ₹7,582 Cr. The 10-year compound rate is 15.0%. That is 4.2% of the quarter's revenue. The same quarter a year earlier earned ₹2,506 Cr.

Mar 26 profit was ₹1,481 Cr, −40.9% year on year. On the full year, FY26 printed ₹7,582 Cr (−39.2%), and the 10-year compound rate is 15.0%.

🚨 Why profit moved: revenue contributed −2.4% and the margin −6.0 pp — the quarter was revenue-led despite a thinner margin.

Pace comparison, last four quarters: profit −37.5% vs revenue −0.1%. Profit is growing slower than sales — costs are eating the growth before it reaches the bottom line.

→ Profit rose — but did the cash follow? Next: 132% of the last 3 years' profit arrived as cash.

Cash flow — the router The P&L says what was earned; the cash-flow statement says what actually arrived. Operating cash flow (CFO) against profit is the cleanest lie detector in the accounts.

Over the last 3 fiscal years 132% of GAIL (India) Ltd's reported profit arrived as operating cash — the cash follows the profit. In FY26 that was ₹11,249 Cr of operating cash against ₹7,582 Cr of profit. After ₹10,317 Cr of capital spending, ₹932 Cr was left as free cash.

FY26: operating cash of ₹11,249 Cr against reported profit of ₹7,582 Cr, leaving free cash of ₹932 Cr after ₹10,317 Cr of capital spending. Across the last 3 fiscal years the conversion rate is 132% of profit.

Cash-flow readings here are annual — that is the resolution our series carries, so this section moves once a year.

Why conversion sits at 132%: the cash cycle held roughly steady between FY21 and FY26 — so conversion tracks profitability rather than the cycle.

Router verdict: the bigger cash user is investment — capital spending ran 3.3× depreciation over three years, so the next section's job is to check what that build-out is buying.

→ So follow the cash to where it goes. Next: ₹37,702 Cr of building over 3 years.

Where the cash goes Working capital is the cash tied up between paying suppliers and getting paid: debtor days (customers owe), inventory days (stock waits), and the cash conversion cycle (the whole loop, in days of sales).

GAIL (India) Ltd's cash conversion cycle runs 19 days in FY26, up from 10 days in FY21. Capital spending ran ₹37,702 Cr over the last 3 years. At FY26 sales of ₹1,41,598 Cr each day of that cycle holds about ₹388 Cr, so roughly ₹7,371 Cr sits inside the business at any moment.

FY26: debtors at 22 days, inventory at 16 days — roughly 0.5 months of stock waiting to sell; that is where the cash sits while it waits — for a full cycle of 19 days, looser than FY21's 10.

The full loop: cash goes out to suppliers and production on day 0; stock waits 16 days to sell; customers pay about 22 days after that; and suppliers themselves are paid at 19 days — netting out to the 19-day cycle.

In money terms: at FY26 sales of ₹1,41,598 Cr, each day of the cycle holds about ₹388 Cr — so the 19-day loop keeps roughly ₹7,371 Cr sitting inside the business at any moment.

On the investment side: capital spending of ₹37,702 Cr over the last 3 fiscal years against ₹11,306 Cr of depreciation — the company is building well ahead of wear-and-tear. Capital work-in-progress stands at ₹24,072 Cr (FY26) — capacity paid for but not yet earning.

The synthesis: the cash is going into capacity, not disappearing into the cycle — the question becomes whether the new capacity earns.

→ Does all this activity actually earn its cost of capital? Next: ROCE is 10% and the ROIC − WACC spread is −6.6 pp.

Return on capital Return on capital employed (ROCE) is the profit the whole business earns on all the money in it — equity and debt together. It is the single best test of whether growth creates value or just size.

GAIL (India) Ltd earns a ROCE of 10% in FY26. That is up from a trough of 8% in FY16. Return on invested capital clears the cost of that capital by −6.6 percentage points, so growth here is not yet paying for the capital it uses. The wiring behind it is 5.4% net margin on 1.01× asset turns.

FY26 ROCE is 10%, recovered from a FY16 trough of 8% — the full ladder below shows the fall and the climb, undoctored.

🚨 Why the return is what it is — the wiring (FY26): 5.4% net margin × 1.01× asset turns × 1.58× balance-sheet leverage ≈ 8.6% on equity. Margin does its share; leverage is modest — this is an earned return, not a borrowed one.

The capstone test — ROIC − WACC: 5.4% − 12.0% = a −6.6 pp spread. The 12.0% is a standing assumption for the cost of capital in India, not a per-stock estimate — read the sign and the size of the spread, not the decimals. Negative — growth at these returns destroys value until the returns recover.

→ Returns like these — is the balance sheet borrowing to make them? Next: debt-to-equity is 0.28.

Debt Debt-to-equity says how much of the business is funded by borrowings. Low is the safe corner; the trend matters as much as the level.

GAIL (India) Ltd carries total debt of ₹24,831 Cr against shareholder equity of ₹89,292 Cr as of Mar 26, a debt-to-equity of 0.28 — effectively unlevered. On the annual view that ratio went from 0.14 in FY22 to 0.28 in FY26. The returns elsewhere on this page are therefore earned rather than borrowed.

Mar 26: total debt of ₹24,831 Cr against shareholder equity of ₹89,292 Cr — a debt-to-equity of 0.28. On the annual view, debt-to-equity went from 0.14 (FY22) to 0.28 (FY26). The returns on this page are earned, not borrowed.

→ Who owns this, and are they adding or leaving? Next: Domestic institutions added 1.0 points over 8 quarters.

Ownership Who owns the stock, quarter by quarter: promoters (the controlling owners), foreign and domestic institutions, and the public. Steady accumulation by people close to the numbers is a signal; a quiet register is also an answer.

Domestic institutions added 1.0 points of GAIL (India) Ltd over 8 quarters, the biggest move on the register. That takes domestic institutions to 19.1% of the company. Foreign institutions moved −0.2 points over the same window, to 15.0%. The register is read on the four disclosed classes only; nothing is inferred between filings.

The register over the last two years — Domestic institutions: +1.0 points over 8 quarters to 19.1%; Foreign institutions: −0.2 points over 8 quarters to 15.0%; Promoters: −0.1 points over 8 quarters to 51.8%.

Why the register moved: domestic institutions drove it (+1.0 points) — steady accumulation by institutions reading the same numbers this page reads.

→ One last check: does the safety math agree? Next: the balance-sheet safety line.

Safety line The Z-score estimates how far a company sits from balance-sheet distress — above roughly 3 is safe, below roughly 1.8 is the danger zone. It was built for manufacturers, so it is not applied to banks and lenders.

GAIL (India) Ltd: the Z-score is not available for this stock, so we say so rather than invent one. It is a distance-to-distress estimate from the balance sheet, not a forecast of failure. The debt, cash-flow and return sections above carry the balance-sheet evidence this page does hold, and each of them states its own reporting date.

The safety line in one sentence: the Z-score is not available for this stock, so we say so rather than invent one.

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