Bosch Ltd
BOSCHLTDBosch Ltd's earnings have outrun its stock. EPS grew +37.6% in a year against a +6.8% price move.
The sharpest disagreement: annual EPS moved +37.6% against a +6.8% price move — the market has not yet caught up with the delivery.
The price is in a confirmed uptrend (7 weeks in) while the P/E sits at the 94th percentile of its own 10-year range. Underneath, the last four quarters read improving — profit +2.9% year on year, and 80% of the last 3 years' profit arrived as cash. What settles it: whether the price catches up with earnings that have already moved.
Price story Before the numbers, the tape. A stock price moves through four repeating seasons: a flat base (stage 1), an advance (2), a top (3), a decline (4). Where the price sits in that cycle frames everything below.
Bosch Ltd trades at ₹40,855, in a confirmed uptrend and 7 weeks into that stage. That is +10.9% against its own 200-day average. It sits at 92% of a 52-week range of ₹29,615 to ₹41,895. On relative strength it has been ahead of the NIFTY 500 on a trailing-13-week view for 13 straight weeks.
Today the stock is in a confirmed uptrend — week 7 of stage 2, confirmed. At ₹40,855 it trades +10.9% versus its 200-day average and sits at 92% of its 52-week range (₹29,615–₹41,895).
Against the market, two honest reads. Cumulative: over the last 10.3 years the stock moved +127% while the NIFTY 500 moved +274% — behind the index over the full window. Recent form: on a trailing-13-week view the stock has been ahead for 13 straight weeks — the ribbon below is that same metric, week by week.
What would end the trend, mechanically: two Friday closes in a row below the 200-day line. That is the exit rule — no debates.
→ The trend is one thing; the bill is another. Are you paying up for it? Next: the P/E sits at the 94th percentile of its own range.
Valuation P/E is the price of ₹1 of annual profit: how many rupees the market pays for each rupee the company earns in a year.
Bosch Ltd trades at 59.0× P/E, at the pricey end of its own range (94th percentile). Its long-run median P/E is 40.6×, measured across 10.0 years of weekly readings. This places the multiple against the stock’s own record, and says nothing about what the business is worth.
Today's P/E of 59.0× is at the pricey end of its own range (94th percentile), against a long-run median of 40.6× measured over 10.0 years of weekly readings. This is a comparison against the stock's own history — not a claim about what it is worth.
Why the multiple sits where it does: over the past year annual EPS moved +37.6% against a +6.8% price move — earnings outran the price, pushing the multiple DOWN its own range.
The price move, decomposed: over 5y, of the +21.7%/yr price move, ~+16.5%/yr came from earnings growth and ~+5.2 pp from the multiple (expanding); over 10y, of the +5.5%/yr price move, ~+5.0%/yr came from earnings growth and ~+0.5 pp from the multiple (roughly flat). The split is the honest approximate (price return minus earnings growth); it makes the rally itself visible instead of hiding it behind the percentile.
Put together: the multiple is full against its own past, so the story rests on the earnings line underneath it, not the multiple.
A quarterly PEG curve, which only the second data source carries, is not drawn on this page: its two data sources disagree by up to 4.6% on reported income across 14 comparable periods. A figure two sources cannot agree on is not drawn — the gap is a decision, not missing data.
→ Cheap or dear rides on the earnings. Are they actually growing? Next: the fundamental stage — where the business sits in its arc, and how growth has compounded.
Stage: Mixed Every business sits somewhere on a fundamental arc, and this page names the spot before anything else. The last twelve quarters of revenue, profit and EPS growth — plus the return the business earns on its capital — are read as curves: Deteriorating (the curves are falling), Turning around (a trough has just formed and the last few quarters lift off it), Improving (the climb off the trough is sustained), Consistent (steadily positive with healthy returns), Topping out (still high but decelerating from the peak). When the curves genuinely disagree the read is Mixed; too little history is No read. CAGR (compound annual growth rate) is the smooth yearly pace that turns the starting value into the latest one — the fairest way to compare growth across different time spans. Read the columns together: if the 1-year number towers over the 10-year, recent growth is running hotter than the long-run trend. A dash means that window is not held, or the base year was a loss (where a growth rate is not meaningful).
Bosch Ltd reads as mixed on its fundamental arc. Mixed — no clean majority across the growth curves, ROCE lifting at 22.0% — the per-curve reads carry the story. The read is built from 10 quarters across 3 curves, on partial evidence.
Why it matters: when the curves disagree, the per-curve reads above matter more than any single verdict.
One or more growth curves carry a base-effect spike — a large year-on-year move off a near-zero or loss-making comparable quarter. Those spikes are capped before the classifier reads the trajectory, and shown pinned on the chart, so a single distorted quarter does not drive the stage call.
Return readings here are annual, not quarterly — read as level and direction only; they can confirm the growth curves but never drive the stage on their own.
A partial read: at least one curve is short, or the returns curve is not the computed quarterly series — hold the stage word a little more loosely.
| 1yr | 3yr | 5yr | 10yr | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | +10.8% | +10.3% | +15.6% | +7.5% |
| Profit | +37.6% | +24.8% | +41.9% | +6.1% |
| EPS | +37.6% | +24.8% | +41.9% | +6.8% |
| Share price | +6.8% | +29.3% | +21.7% | +5.5% |
→ The stage names the trajectory. Next: the revenue line that produces it, quarter by quarter.
4-Factor Sector Score
54.8/100 — rank 9 of 20 in Auto Ancillaries - Diversified · 79% evidence confidence
Bosch Ltd scores 54.8 out of 100 against the 20 companies it is compared with in Auto Ancillaries - Diversified, ranking 9. Strong business, demanding price: keep it on the quality list, but require either earnings upgrades or valuation compression.
The four contributions add to the total exactly: 20 + 19 + 6.4 + 9.4 = 54.8. This is the SAME number shown on the sector comparison — it is computed once, for the whole peer set, and read here.
What would change it: The read weakens if profit growth turns negative or margin improvement reverses while sector-relative strength deteriorates.
Revenue Revenue is the top line: everything the company billed its customers in the period.
Bosch Ltd reported ₹5,566 Cr of revenue in the Mar 26 quarter, +13.3% year on year. That is the 10th straight quarter of year-on-year growth. Over 10 years it has compounded at 7.5% a year. The last full year, FY26, came in at ₹20,035 Cr. The last four reported quarters add to ₹20,036 Cr.
Bosch Ltd reported ₹5,566 Cr of revenue in the Mar 26 quarter, +13.3% year on year. That is the 10th straight quarter of year-on-year growth. Over 10 years it has compounded at 7.5% a year. The last full year, FY26, came in at ₹20,035 Cr. The last four reported quarters add to ₹20,036 Cr.
FY26 revenue came in at ₹20,035 Cr (+10.8% on the year), capping 10 years at 7.5% compound. The latest quarter (Mar 26) printed ₹5,566 Cr, +13.3% year on year — the 10th consecutive quarter of year-over-year growth.
Pace check: the last four quarters averaged +10.7% growth against the decade's 7.5% — the current year is running faster than its own long-run rate.
Acceleration check: trailing-twelve-month revenue grew +10.8% over the last 4 quarters against +9.4%/yr over the last 8 — stabilising; TTM profit +37.5% vs +5.5%/yr — accelerating.
→ Revenue grew — did margins hold as it scaled? Next: 14.0% this quarter (+1.0 pp YoY).
Operating margin Operating margin is what is left of every ₹100 of sales after running the business, before interest and tax. It is the cleanest read on pricing power and cost control.
Bosch Ltd's operating margin is 14.0% in the Mar 26 quarter, +1.0 percentage points against the same quarter a year ago. Across 11 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged 12.0% to 19.0%. The current quarter sits inside that band.
Bosch Ltd's operating margin is 14.0% in the Mar 26 quarter, +1.0 percentage points against the same quarter a year ago. Across 11 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged 12.0% to 19.0%. The current quarter sits inside that band.
The latest quarter's operating margin is 14.0%, +1.0 pp against the same quarter a year ago. Across 11 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged 12.0%–19.0%.
Why the margin moved: operating margin went +0.9 pp year on year while gross margin went −2.8 pp — the gain came mostly from the gross line: input costs and pricing.
→ Margins held — did that reach the bottom line? Next: profit +2.9% in the latest quarter.
Net profit Net profit is what survives every cost, interest and tax — the number EPS, dividends and book value all grow from.
Bosch Ltd earned ₹570 Cr of net profit in the Mar 26 quarter, +2.9% year on year. It is the 4th consecutive quarter of growth. Full-year FY26 profit was ₹2,773 Cr. The 10-year compound rate is 6.1%. That is 10.2% of the quarter's revenue. The same quarter a year earlier earned ₹554 Cr.
Bosch Ltd earned ₹570 Cr of net profit in the Mar 26 quarter, +2.9% year on year. It is the 4th consecutive quarter of growth. Full-year FY26 profit was ₹2,773 Cr. The 10-year compound rate is 6.1%. That is 10.2% of the quarter's revenue. The same quarter a year earlier earned ₹554 Cr.
Mar 26 profit was ₹570 Cr, +2.9% year on year — the 4th consecutive quarter of growth. On the full year, FY26 printed ₹2,773 Cr (+37.6%), and the 10-year compound rate is 6.1%.
Why profit moved: revenue contributed +13.3% and the margin +1.0 pp — the quarter was revenue-led, with the margin roughly flat.
Pace comparison, last four quarters: profit +40.4% vs revenue +10.7%. Profit is growing faster than sales — fixed costs are being spread over a bigger base, and each extra rupee of revenue drops more to the bottom line.
→ Profit rose — but did the cash follow? Next: 80% of the last 3 years' profit arrived as cash.
Cash flow — the router The P&L says what was earned; the cash-flow statement says what actually arrived. Operating cash flow (CFO) against profit is the cleanest lie detector in the accounts.
Over the last 3 fiscal years 80% of Bosch Ltd's reported profit arrived as operating cash — the cash follows the profit. In FY26 that was ₹2,175 Cr of operating cash against ₹2,773 Cr of profit. After ₹386 Cr of capital spending, ₹1,789 Cr was left as free cash.
FY26: operating cash of ₹2,175 Cr against reported profit of ₹2,773 Cr, leaving free cash of ₹1,789 Cr after ₹386 Cr of capital spending. Across the last 3 fiscal years the conversion rate is 80% of profit.
Cash-flow readings here are annual — that is the resolution our series carries, so this section moves once a year.
Why conversion sits at 80%: the cash cycle stretched 19 days between FY21 and FY26 — more of each rupee of profit waits inside the cycle before arriving.
Router verdict: no single sink dominates — the next section checks both the working-capital cycle and the capital spending.
→ So follow the cash to where it goes. Next: a 13-day cycle and ₹1,113 Cr of building.
Where the cash goes Working capital is the cash tied up between paying suppliers and getting paid: debtor days (customers owe), inventory days (stock waits), and the cash conversion cycle (the whole loop, in days of sales).
Bosch Ltd's cash conversion cycle runs 13 days in FY26, up from −6 days in FY21. Capital spending ran ₹1,113 Cr over the last 3 years. At FY26 sales of ₹20,035 Cr each day of that cycle holds about ₹54.9 Cr, so roughly ₹714 Cr sits inside the business at any moment.
FY26: debtors at 51 days, inventory at 61 days — roughly 2.0 months of stock waiting to sell; that is where the cash sits while it waits — for a full cycle of 13 days, looser than FY21's −6.
The full loop: cash goes out to suppliers and production on day 0; stock waits 61 days to sell; customers pay about 51 days after that; and suppliers themselves are paid at 98 days — netting out to the 13-day cycle.
In money terms: at FY26 sales of ₹20,035 Cr, each day of the cycle holds about ₹54.9 Cr — so the 13-day loop keeps roughly ₹714 Cr sitting inside the business at any moment.
On the investment side: capital spending of ₹1,113 Cr over the last 3 fiscal years against ₹1,198 Cr of depreciation — spending at or below maintenance level. Capital work-in-progress stands at ₹358 Cr (FY26) — capacity paid for but not yet earning.
The synthesis: neither the cycle nor the build-out is hoarding the cash — the machine is reasonably clean.
→ Does all this activity actually earn its cost of capital? Next: ROCE is 22%.
Return on capital Return on capital employed (ROCE) is the profit the whole business earns on all the money in it — equity and debt together. It is the single best test of whether growth creates value or just size.
Bosch Ltd earns a ROCE of 22% in FY26. That is up from a trough of 14% in FY21. A return-on-invested-capital spread against the cost of capital is not computable from what is held here. The wiring behind it is 13.8% net margin on 0.92× asset turns.
FY26 ROCE is 22%, recovered from a FY21 trough of 14% — the full ladder below shows the fall and the climb, undoctored.
Why the return is what it is — the wiring (FY26): 13.8% net margin × 0.92× asset turns × 1.46× balance-sheet leverage ≈ 18.5% on equity. Margin does its share; leverage is modest — this is an earned return, not a borrowed one.
The quarterly return curves and the return-on-invested-capital overlay, which only the second data source carries, are not drawn on this page: its two data sources disagree by up to 4.6% on reported income across 14 comparable periods. A figure two sources cannot agree on is not drawn — the gap is a decision, not missing data.
→ Returns like these — is the balance sheet borrowing to make them? Next: debt-to-equity is 0.01.
Debt Debt-to-equity says how much of the business is funded by borrowings; interest cover says how many times operating profit pays the interest bill. Low and high, respectively, is the safe corner.
Bosch Ltd carries ₹119 Cr of borrowings against ₹14,846 Cr of equity in FY26, a debt-to-equity of 0.01. Operating profit covers the interest bill 98×. Over 5 years borrowings went from ₹54.0 Cr to ₹119 Cr. Capital spending ran ₹1,113 Cr across the last 3 of those years.
FY26: borrowings of ₹119 Cr against equity of ₹14,846 Cr — a debt-to-equity of 0.01. Operating profit covers the interest bill 98×. Over 5 years borrowings went from ₹54.0 Cr to ₹119 Cr while capital spending ran ₹1,113 Cr in just the last 3 — part of the build-out is riding on borrowed money.
The total-debt and debt-to-equity series, which only the second data source carries, are not drawn on this page: its two data sources disagree by up to 4.6% on reported income across 14 comparable periods. A figure two sources cannot agree on is not drawn — the gap is a decision, not missing data.
→ Who owns this, and are they adding or leaving? Next: Foreign institutions added 1.1 points over 8 quarters.
Ownership Who owns the stock, quarter by quarter: promoters (the controlling owners), foreign and domestic institutions, and the public. Steady accumulation by people close to the numbers is a signal; a quiet register is also an answer.
Foreign institutions added 1.1 points of Bosch Ltd over 8 quarters, the biggest move on the register. That takes foreign institutions to 7.1% of the company. Domestic institutions moved −0.6 points over the same window, to 15.2%. The register is read on the four disclosed classes only; nothing is inferred between filings.
The register over the last two years — Foreign institutions: +1.1 points over 8 quarters to 7.1%; Domestic institutions: −0.6 points over 8 quarters to 15.2%; Promoters: +0.0 points over 8 quarters to 70.5%.
Why the register moved: foreign institutions drove it (+1.1 points), absorbed on the other side by domestic institutions (−0.6 points) — steady accumulation by institutions reading the same numbers this page reads.
→ One last check: does the safety math agree? Next: the balance-sheet safety line.
Safety line The Z-score estimates how far a company sits from balance-sheet distress — above roughly 3 is safe, below roughly 1.8 is the danger zone. It was built for manufacturers, so it is not applied to banks and lenders.
Bosch Ltd: the Z-score is withheld — it comes from the second data source this page could not reconcile, and a solvency score is not worth printing on a number two sources dispute. It is a distance-to-distress estimate from the balance sheet, not a forecast of failure.
The safety line in one sentence: the Z-score is withheld — it comes from the second data source this page could not reconcile, and a solvency score is not worth printing on a number two sources dispute.
| Company | P/E | Mkt cap | Revenue | EPS | ROCE | Stage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bosch Ltd this page | 59.0× | ₹1.2L Cr | Mixed | |||
| Samvardhana Motherson International Ltd | 36.0× | ₹1.5L Cr | Turning around | |||
| Endurance Technologies Ltd | 39.7× | ₹37,051 Cr | Consistent | |||
| Motherson Sumi Wiring India Ltd | 42.6× | ₹26,600 Cr | Mixed | |||
| ZF Commercial Vehicle Control System India Ltd | 52.3× | ₹26,410 Cr | Topping out | |||
| Sansera Engineering Ltd | 59.1× | ₹19,874 Cr | Mixed | |||
| Minda Corporation Ltd | 44.8× | ₹16,173 Cr | Mixed | |||
| Lumax Auto Technologies Ltd | 34.7× | ₹9,991 Cr | Consistent | |||
| Varroc Engineering Ltd | 38.7× | ₹9,820 Cr | Turning around | |||
| S J S Enterprises Ltd | 44.0× | ₹7,475 Cr | Consistent | |||
| Suprajit Engineering Ltd | 35.5× | ₹6,646 Cr | Turning around | |||
| Sharda Motor Industries Ltd | 14.3× | ₹4,744 Cr | Mixed | |||
| Carraro India Ltd | 22.1× | ₹3,036 Cr | No read | |||
| NDR Auto Components Ltd | 30.9× | ₹1,933 Cr | Mixed | |||
| Jay Bharat Maruti Ltd | 12.5× | ₹1,747 Cr | No read | |||
| OBSC Perfection Ltd | 56.0× | ₹1,512 Cr | No read | |||
| Automobile Corporation Of Goa Ltd | 18.7× | ₹1,353 Cr | Turning around | |||
| Precision Camshafts Ltd | 53.4× | ₹1,317 Cr | Mixed | |||
| Automobile Corporation Of Goa Ltd | 15.1× | ₹1,027 Cr | Turning around | |||
| Munjal Auto Industries Ltd | 28.2× | ₹998 Cr | No read | |||
| Mercury EV-Tech Ltd | 160.0× | ₹667 Cr | Deteriorating |
Frequently asked questions
What is Bosch Ltd's share price today?
Bosch Ltd trades at ₹40,855, +6.8% over the past year. The company is valued at ₹1,23,161 Cr. The stock sits at 92% of its 52-week range of ₹29,615–₹41,895, +10.9% versus its 200-day average. On the tape, the price is in a confirmed uptrend, 7 weeks in. — as of 24 July 2026.
What were Bosch Ltd's latest quarterly results?
Bosch Ltd reported revenue of ₹5,566 Cr and net profit of ₹570 Cr for the Mar 26 quarter. Revenue rose 13.3% and profit rose 2.9% year on year. Earnings per share were ₹193.26. The operating margin was 14.0%, 1.0 pp higher than a year earlier. — as of 24 July 2026.
What is Bosch Ltd's revenue?
Bosch Ltd reported revenue of ₹5,566 Cr in the Mar 26 quarter, +13.3% year on year. For the full FY26 fiscal year, revenue was ₹20,035 Cr (+10.8%). Over the last 10 years revenue compounded at 7.5% a year. — as of 24 July 2026.
What is Bosch Ltd's profit?
Bosch Ltd earned ₹570 Cr of net profit in the Mar 26 quarter, +2.9% year on year — the 4th straight quarter of growth. Full-year FY26 profit was ₹2,773 Cr. The operating margin ran 14.0% in the latest quarter. — as of 24 July 2026.
What is Bosch Ltd's market cap?
Bosch Ltd's market capitalisation is ₹1,23,161 Cr at a share price of ₹40,855. Market cap is the share price multiplied by shares outstanding, so it is restated whenever the price moves. — as of 24 July 2026.
What is Bosch Ltd's P/E ratio?
Bosch Ltd trades at a P/E of 59.0×, at the 94th percentile of its own 10-year range, against a long-run median of 40.6×. This is a comparison with the stock's own history, not a value call — as of 24 July 2026.
Does Bosch Ltd pay a dividend?
Yes — Bosch Ltd's dividend payout was 29% of profit in FY26, and it recorded a payout in each of its last 11 reported fiscal years. This page holds the payout ratio, not a per-share amount. — as of 24 July 2026.
Is Bosch Ltd overvalued?
On its own history, Bosch Ltd looks expensive against its own history: its P/E of 59.0× sits at the 94th percentile of its 10-year range (long-run median 40.6×). That is a percentile read against the stock's own past, not a price opinion or a direction call. — as of 24 July 2026.
Is Bosch Ltd growing?
Yes — Bosch Ltd is growing: latest-quarter revenue +13.3% year on year, profit +2.9%, and the margin +1.0 pp at 14.0%. The 10-year compound rates are 7.5% (revenue) and 6.1% (profit). The earnings engine currently reads: improving — as of 24 July 2026.
How is Bosch Ltd performing?
Bosch Ltd is in a confirmed uptrend, 7 weeks in. Its latest quarter's revenue rose 13.3% and profit rose 2.9% year on year. Against the NIFTY 500 it has been ahead on a trailing-13-week view for 13 weeks. This describes what the data did, not a rating. — as of 24 July 2026.
What stage is Bosch Ltd in?
Mixed — no clean majority across the growth curves, ROCE lifting at 22.0% — the per-curve reads carry the story. The read comes from the last 12 quarters of growth (revenue growth +13.3% latest, profit growth +2.9% latest) plus the ROCE curve, classified by deterministic rules — a trajectory read, not a buy or sell call — as of 24 July 2026.
Is Bosch Ltd in an uptrend?
Yes — the price is in a confirmed uptrend (week 7 of stage 2), trading +10.9% versus its 200-day average and at 92% of its 52-week range. Price stages cycle base → advance → top → decline, and the stage names where this stock sits in that cycle — as of 24 July 2026.
Is Bosch Ltd beating the market?
On recent form, yes — Bosch Ltd has been ahead of the NIFTY 500 on a trailing-13-week view for 13 straight weeks, the same metric the week-by-week ribbon on this page draws. Separately, on the cumulative view: over the last 10.3 years the stock moved +127% against the NIFTY 500's +274% — behind the index over the full window. — as of 24 July 2026.
Will Bosch Ltd's share price go up?
This page publishes no price forecast for Bosch Ltd. What it measures instead: the share price is ₹40,855, the price is in a confirmed uptrend 7 weeks in. Its P/E of 59.0× sits at the 94th percentile of its own 10-year range. — as of 24 July 2026.
Who owns Bosch Ltd?
Promoters hold 70.5% of Bosch Ltd, foreign institutions 7.1%, domestic institutions 15.2% and the public 7.2% (latest quarter). The biggest move on the register over the last two years: Foreign institutions added 1.1 points over 8 quarters. — as of 24 July 2026.
Does Bosch Ltd have too much debt?
No — Bosch Ltd's debt-to-equity is 0.01, and operating profit covers the interest bill 98×. FY26 borrowings were ₹119 Cr against equity of ₹14,846 Cr. The returns on this page are earned, not borrowed — as of 24 July 2026.
What is Bosch Ltd's capex?
Bosch Ltd spent ₹1,113 Cr on capital expenditure over the last 3 fiscal years, a figure derived from the change in fixed assets plus depreciation. In FY26 alone that was ₹386 Cr, with ₹358 Cr in capital work-in-progress — capacity paid for but not yet earning. — as of 24 July 2026.
What is Bosch Ltd's cash flow?
Bosch Ltd generated ₹2,175 Cr of operating cash flow in FY26 and ₹1,789 Cr of free cash flow after ₹386 Cr of capital spending. Reported profit that year was ₹2,773 Cr, so operating cash ran behind profit. Cash-flow resolution for India is annual. — as of 24 July 2026.
Is Bosch Ltd's profit real cash?
Yes — over the last 3 fiscal years, 80% of Bosch Ltd's reported profit arrived as operating cash. In FY26, operating cash was ₹2,175 Cr against reported profit of ₹2,773 Cr. The cash then goes into a mix of the working-capital cycle and capacity. Cash-flow resolution is annual — as of 24 July 2026.
Where is Bosch Ltd in its business cycle?
Bosch Ltd's FY26 operating margin was 13.0%, against a 11-year band of 12.0%–19.0%: the low end of its own band, which is where recoveries start when they come. The latest quarter ran 14.0%. Profitability versus a company's own long band is the cleanest cycle clock this page holds — as of 24 July 2026.
What could break the Bosch Ltd story?
The sharpest disagreement: annual EPS moved +37.6% against a +6.8% price move — the market has not yet caught up with the delivery. Mechanically, two Friday closes in a row below the 200-day average would end the price trend — that is the exit rule this page tracks — as of 24 July 2026.
Is Bosch Ltd a stock worth studying right now?
This is not investment advice. The machine read: Bosch Ltd's earnings have outrun its stock. EPS grew +37.6% in a year against a +6.8% price move. The sharpest open question: whether the price catches up with earnings that have already moved. Every number on this page is drawn deterministically from the raw series, with no forecasts and no price opinions — as of 24 July 2026.