NILE Ltd

Price story Before the numbers, the tape. A stock price moves through four repeating seasons: a flat base (stage 1), an advance (2), a top (3), a decline (4). Where the price sits in that cycle frames everything below.

NILE Ltd trades at ₹1,471, in a downtrend and 15 weeks into that stage. That is −11.5% against its own 200-day average. It sits at 17% of a 52-week range of ₹1,342 to ₹2,091. On relative strength it has been ahead of the NIFTY 500 on a trailing-13-week view for 5 straight weeks.

Today the stock is in a downtrend — week 15 of stage 4, confirmed. At ₹1,471 it trades −11.5% versus its 200-day average and sits at 17% of its 52-week range (₹1,342–₹2,091).

Against the market, two honest reads. Cumulative: over the last 10.0 years the stock moved +797% while the NIFTY 500 moved +228% — ahead of the index over the full window. Recent form: on a trailing-13-week view the stock has been ahead for 5 straight weeks — the ribbon below is that same metric, week by week.

What would end the trend, mechanically: two Friday closes in a row below the 200-day line. That is the exit rule — no debates.

→ The trend is one thing; the bill is another. Are you paying up for it? Next: the P/E sits at the 36th percentile of its own range.

Valuation P/E is the price of ₹1 of annual profit: how many rupees the market pays for each rupee the company earns in a year.

NILE Ltd trades at 8.6× P/E, mid-range by its own standards (36th percentile). Its long-run median P/E is 9.8×, measured across 6.1 years of weekly readings. This places the multiple against the stock’s own record, and says nothing about what the business is worth.

Today's P/E of 8.6× is mid-range by its own standards (36th percentile), against a long-run median of 9.8× measured over 6.1 years of weekly readings. This is a comparison against the stock's own history — not a claim about what it is worth.

One caveat before moving on: margins are the best this company has ever printed — cheap against its own history on record margins is not the same thing as cheap. If profitability mean-reverts, today's multiple is higher than it looks.

Why the multiple sits where it does: over the past year annual EPS moved +16.6% against a −0.2% price move — earnings outran the price, pushing the multiple DOWN its own range.

The price move, decomposed: over 5y, of the +37.2%/yr price move, ~+42.2%/yr came from earnings growth and ~−5.0 pp from the multiple (compressing). The split is the honest approximate (price return minus earnings growth); it makes the rally itself visible instead of hiding it behind the percentile.

Put together: the multiple is unremarkable against its own past, so the story rests on the earnings line underneath it, not the multiple.

→ Cheap or dear rides on the earnings. Are they actually growing? Next: the fundamental stage — where the business sits in its arc, and how growth has compounded.

Stage: Turning around Every business sits somewhere on a fundamental arc, and this page names the spot before anything else. The last twelve quarters of revenue, profit and EPS growth — plus the return the business earns on its capital — are read as curves: Deteriorating (the curves are falling), Turning around (a trough has just formed and the last few quarters lift off it), Improving (the climb off the trough is sustained), Consistent (steadily positive with healthy returns), Topping out (still high but decelerating from the peak). When the curves genuinely disagree the read is Mixed; too little history is No read. CAGR (compound annual growth rate) is the smooth yearly pace that turns the starting value into the latest one — the fairest way to compare growth across different time spans. Read the columns together: if the 1-year number towers over the 10-year, recent growth is running hotter than the long-run trend. A dash means that window is not held, or the base year was a loss (where a growth rate is not meaningful).

NILE Ltd reads as turning around on its fundamental arc. Turning around — profit growth swung from +0.0% at the trough to +50.0% off a 4-quarter-old trough (single-quarter readings), ROCE lifting at 20.0%. The read is built from 9 quarters across 3 curves, on partial evidence.

Why it matters: growth inflections are where re-ratings start — the curves say a turn is forming, so the question becomes whether the next quarters confirm it.

One or more growth curves carry a base-effect spike — a large year-on-year move off a near-zero or loss-making comparable quarter. Those spikes are capped before the classifier reads the trajectory, and shown pinned on the chart, so a single distorted quarter does not drive the stage call.

Return readings here are annual, not quarterly — read as level and direction only; they can confirm the growth curves but never drive the stage on their own.

A partial read: at least one curve is short, or the returns curve is not the computed quarterly series — hold the stage word a little more loosely.

→ The stage names the trajectory. Next: the revenue line that produces it, quarter by quarter.

4-Factor Sector Score

No sector-relative score — NILE Ltd is not present in the sector comparison for Recycling.

The score is a rank WITHIN a peer set: every metric is scored by percentile against the other members. Without the peer set there is no score to state, so none is invented here.

Revenue Revenue is the top line: everything the company billed its customers in the period.

NILE Ltd reported ₹291 Cr of revenue in the Dec 25 quarter, +24.9% year on year. That is the 2nd straight quarter of year-on-year growth. Over 5 years it has compounded at 9.2% a year. The last full year, FY25, came in at ₹920 Cr. The last four reported quarters add to ₹1,000 Cr.

NILE Ltd reported ₹291 Cr of revenue in the Dec 25 quarter, +24.9% year on year. That is the 2nd straight quarter of year-on-year growth. Over 5 years it has compounded at 9.2% a year. The last full year, FY25, came in at ₹920 Cr. The last four reported quarters add to ₹1,000 Cr.

FY25 revenue came in at ₹920 Cr (+9.8% on the year), capping 5 years at 9.2% compound. The latest quarter (Dec 25) printed ₹291 Cr, +24.9% year on year — the 2nd consecutive quarter of year-over-year growth.

Pace check: the last four quarters averaged +10.7% growth against the decade's 9.2% — the current year is running faster than its own long-run rate.

Acceleration check: trailing-twelve-month revenue grew +10.6% over the last 4 quarters against +6.5%/yr over the last 8 — accelerating; TTM profit +62.5% vs +23.7%/yr — accelerating.

→ Revenue grew — did margins hold as it scaled? Next: 7.0% this quarter (+0.0 pp YoY).

Operating margin Operating margin is what is left of every ₹100 of sales after running the business, before interest and tax. It is the cleanest read on pricing power and cost control.

NILE Ltd's operating margin is 7.0% in the Dec 25 quarter, +0.0 percentage points against the same quarter a year ago. That is the widest this company has ever printed on a full-year basis. Across 6 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged 4.0% to 6.0%. The current quarter is running above every full year in that window.

NILE Ltd's operating margin is 7.0% in the Dec 25 quarter, +0.0 percentage points against the same quarter a year ago. That is the widest this company has ever printed on a full-year basis. Across 6 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged 4.0% to 6.0%. The current quarter is running above every full year in that window.

The latest quarter's operating margin is 7.0%, +0.0 pp against the same quarter a year ago. Across 6 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged 4.0%–6.0%, and FY25's 6.0% is the top of that band — a record year.

Why the margin moved: operating margin went +0.7 pp year on year while gross margin went −2.4 pp — the gain came mostly from the gross line: input costs and pricing.

Worth repeating from the valuation section: cheap against its own history on record margins is not the same thing as cheap — a record margin flatters every ratio built on top of it.

→ Margins held — did that reach the bottom line? Next: profit +50.0% in the latest quarter.

Net profit Net profit is what survives every cost, interest and tax — the number EPS, dividends and book value all grow from.

NILE Ltd earned ₹15.0 Cr of net profit in the Dec 25 quarter, +50.0% year on year. It is the 4th consecutive quarter of growth. Full-year FY25 profit was ₹36.0 Cr. The 5-year compound rate is 26.8%. That is 5.2% of the quarter's revenue. The same quarter a year earlier earned ₹10.0 Cr.

NILE Ltd earned ₹15.0 Cr of net profit in the Dec 25 quarter, +50.0% year on year. It is the 4th consecutive quarter of growth. Full-year FY25 profit was ₹36.0 Cr. The 5-year compound rate is 26.8%. That is 5.2% of the quarter's revenue. The same quarter a year earlier earned ₹10.0 Cr.

Dec 25 profit was ₹15.0 Cr, +50.0% year on year — the 4th consecutive quarter of growth. On the full year, FY25 printed ₹36.0 Cr (+16.1%), and the 5-year compound rate is 26.8%.

Why profit moved: revenue contributed +24.9% and the margin +0.0 pp — the quarter was revenue-led, with the margin roughly flat.

Pace comparison, last four quarters: profit +63.5% vs revenue +10.7%. Profit is growing faster than sales — fixed costs are being spread over a bigger base, and each extra rupee of revenue drops more to the bottom line.

→ Profit rose — but did the cash follow? Next: 83% of the last 3 years' profit arrived as cash.

Cash flow — the router The P&L says what was earned; the cash-flow statement says what actually arrived. Operating cash flow (CFO) against profit is the cleanest lie detector in the accounts.

Over the last 3 fiscal years 83% of NILE Ltd's reported profit arrived as operating cash — the cash follows the profit. In FY25 that was ₹−1.0 Cr of operating cash against ₹36.0 Cr of profit. After ₹15.0 Cr of capital spending, ₹−16.0 Cr was left as free cash.

FY25: operating cash of ₹−1.0 Cr against reported profit of ₹36.0 Cr, leaving free cash of ₹−16.0 Cr after ₹15.0 Cr of capital spending. Across the last 3 fiscal years the conversion rate is 83% of profit.

Cash-flow readings here are annual — that is the resolution our series carries, so this section moves once a year.

Why conversion sits at 83%: the cash cycle held roughly steady between FY20 and FY25 — so conversion tracks profitability rather than the cycle.

Router verdict: the bigger cash user is investment — capital spending ran 3.8× depreciation over three years, so the next section's job is to check what that build-out is buying.

→ So follow the cash to where it goes. Next: ₹38.0 Cr of building over 3 years.

Where the cash goes Working capital is the cash tied up between paying suppliers and getting paid: debtor days (customers owe), inventory days (stock waits), and the cash conversion cycle (the whole loop, in days of sales).

NILE Ltd's cash conversion cycle runs 91 days in FY25, up from 82 days in FY20. Capital spending ran ₹38.0 Cr over the last 3 years. At FY25 sales of ₹920 Cr each day of that cycle holds about ₹2.5 Cr, so roughly ₹229 Cr sits inside the business at any moment.

FY25: debtors at 36 days, inventory at 57 days — roughly 1.9 months of stock waiting to sell; that is where the cash sits while it waits — for a full cycle of 91 days, looser than FY20's 82.

The full loop: cash goes out to suppliers and production on day 0; stock waits 57 days to sell; customers pay about 36 days after that; and suppliers themselves are paid at 2 days — netting out to the 91-day cycle.

In money terms: at FY25 sales of ₹920 Cr, each day of the cycle holds about ₹2.5 Cr — so the 91-day loop keeps roughly ₹229 Cr sitting inside the business at any moment.

On the investment side: capital spending of ₹38.0 Cr over the last 3 fiscal years against ₹10.0 Cr of depreciation — the company is building well ahead of wear-and-tear. Capital work-in-progress stands at ₹14.0 Cr (FY25) — capacity paid for but not yet earning.

The synthesis: the cash is going into capacity, not disappearing into the cycle — the question becomes whether the new capacity earns.

→ Does all this activity actually earn its cost of capital? Next: ROCE is 20%.

Return on capital Return on capital employed (ROCE) is the profit the whole business earns on all the money in it — equity and debt together. It is the single best test of whether growth creates value or just size.

NILE Ltd earns a ROCE of 20% in FY25. That is up from a trough of 12% in FY21. A return-on-invested-capital spread against the cost of capital is not computable from what is held here. The wiring behind it is 3.9% net margin on 3.05× asset turns.

FY25 ROCE is 20%, recovered from a FY21 trough of 12% — the full ladder below shows the fall and the climb, undoctored.

Why the return is what it is — the wiring (FY25): 3.9% net margin × 3.05× asset turns × 1.14× balance-sheet leverage ≈ 13.6% on equity. Margin does its share; leverage is modest — this is an earned return, not a borrowed one.

→ Returns like these — is the balance sheet borrowing to make them? Next: debt-to-equity is 0.08.

Debt Debt-to-equity says how much of the business is funded by borrowings; interest cover says how many times operating profit pays the interest bill. Low and high, respectively, is the safe corner.

NILE Ltd carries ₹22.0 Cr of borrowings against ₹265 Cr of equity in FY25, a debt-to-equity of 0.08. Operating profit covers the interest bill 28×. Over 5 years borrowings went from ₹22.0 Cr to ₹22.0 Cr. Capital spending ran ₹38.0 Cr across the last 3 of those years.

FY25: borrowings of ₹22.0 Cr against equity of ₹265 Cr — a debt-to-equity of 0.08. Operating profit covers the interest bill 28×. Over 5 years borrowings went from ₹22.0 Cr to ₹22.0 Cr while capital spending ran ₹38.0 Cr in just the last 3 — the build-out is being paid for out of cash, not debt.

→ Who owns this, and are they adding or leaving? Next: the register is quiet.

Ownership Who owns the stock, quarter by quarter: promoters (the controlling owners), foreign and domestic institutions, and the public. Steady accumulation by people close to the numbers is a signal; a quiet register is also an answer.

No holder of NILE Ltd moved a full percentage point over the last two years — the register is quiet. Foreign institutions moved +0.1 points over the same window, to 0.2%. The register is read on the four disclosed classes only; nothing is inferred between filings.

The register over the last two years — Domestic institutions: +0.3 points over 8 quarters to 0.3%; Foreign institutions: +0.1 points over 8 quarters to 0.2%; Promoters: +0.0 points over 8 quarters to 50.4%.

→ One last check: does the safety math agree? Next: the balance-sheet safety line.

Safety line The Z-score estimates how far a company sits from balance-sheet distress — above roughly 3 is safe, below roughly 1.8 is the danger zone. It was built for manufacturers, so it is not applied to banks and lenders.

NILE Ltd: the Z-score is not available for this stock, so we say so rather than invent one. It is a distance-to-distress estimate from the balance sheet, not a forecast of failure. The debt, cash-flow and return sections above carry the balance-sheet evidence this page does hold, and each of them states its own reporting date.

The safety line in one sentence: the Z-score is not available for this stock, so we say so rather than invent one.

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