Vintage Coffee & Beverages Ltd

Price story Before the numbers, the tape. A stock price moves through four repeating seasons: a flat base (stage 1), an advance (2), a top (3), a decline (4). Where the price sits in that cycle frames everything below.

Vintage Coffee & Beverages Ltd trades at ₹148, in a confirmed uptrend and 8 weeks into that stage. That is +1.7% against its own 200-day average. It sits at 52% of a 52-week range of ₹123 to ₹172. On relative strength it is currently behind the NIFTY 500 on a trailing-13-week view (3 weeks and counting).

Today the stock is in a confirmed uptrend — week 8 of stage 2, confirmed. At ₹148 it trades +1.7% versus its 200-day average and sits at 52% of its 52-week range (₹123–₹172).

Against the market, two honest reads. Cumulative: over the last 7.0 years the stock moved +1,796% while the NIFTY 500 moved +166% — ahead of the index over the full window. Recent form: on a trailing-13-week view the stock is currently behind (3 weeks and counting; last ahead the week of 2026-07-24) — the ribbon below is that same metric, week by week.

What would end the trend, mechanically: two Friday closes in a row below the 200-day line. That is the exit rule — no debates.

Story check

Vintage Coffee & Beverages Ltd's story is not scored yet against the markers our research file set on 27 June 2026. Where it sits in its own cycle: Not stated in the research file. Our fortnightly research layers last read it on 19 July 2026.

Our read, 27 June 2026. Instant coffee exporter at the early innings of a freeze-dried platform build — FY26 revenue nearly doubled and the next capacity step opens a second, premium-margin layer.

What is proven. Instant coffee exporter at the early innings of a freeze-dried platform build — FY26 revenue nearly doubled and the next capacity step opens a second, premium-margin layer.

What is not proven yet. If Q1 FY27 volumes miss the 2,100 metric ton floor for two consecutive quarters, that would indicate customer commitment visibility was overstated and the utilisation ramp thesis breaks. Separately, if freeze-dried capex escalates beyond Rs 650 crore or commissioning slips past December 2027, the FY28 margin story shifts from base case to bull case.

🚨 What would change our mind. If Q1 FY27 volumes miss the 2,100 metric ton floor for two consecutive quarters, that would indicate customer commitment visibility was overstated and the utilisation ramp thesis breaks. Separately, if freeze-dried capex escalates beyond Rs 650 crore or commissioning slips past December 2027, the FY28 margin story shifts from base case to bull case.

Layer 1 read, 19 July 2026 — KEEP. Instant-coffee exporter early in a freeze-dried ramp — PE de-rated while EPS quadrupled, real turn but cash quality unproven. The multiple sits at the 12.5th percentile of its 10-year range yet the last 12 quarters show revenue climbing from Rs 21cr to Rs 165cr and EPS from Rs 0.16 to Rs 1.44 — the compression is a de-rating compounder, not a value trap. Three named drivers fuel the next 6-8 quarters: the freeze-dried plant commissioning ~Mar 2027, packed-mix rising to 60%, and a utilisation ramp to 95%. The honest caveat is cash: 3-year OCF-to-PAT is -0.35x, plugged partly with new borrowing, and promoters have cut their stake from 69.9% to 34.6% — both flagged RED and unresolved, so conviction is capped.

What would change Layer 1’s mind. Q1 FY27 quarterly volume below the 2,100 MT floor for two consecutive quarters (utilisation/commitment thesis breaks), OR OCF staying negative into FY27 while the freeze-dried debt (Rs 400cr planned, C035) draws down — that would turn the accrual-heavy caveat from a growth artifact into a genuine earnings-quality failure.

Layer 2 read, 19 July 2026 — ADVANCE. Genuinely cheap EPS-led coffee-export compounder with no external negative — thin streams, so P1 carries it through. Vintage nearly quadrupled its 12-quarter engine and grew FY26 revenue and PAT ~80% while its PE sits at the 12.5th percentile with positive MoS — a real depressed-breakout, not a value trap, since the earnings momentum is strong. Every external stream is empty for FMCG-Coffee (NO_CURVE, null capital flows), so L1's P1 backstops the sparse data and, with no cited external negative, it advances — the -0.35x 3y OCF-to-PAT and promoter dilution to 34.6% are real cash/governance watches but are fact-explained growth-funding, not a thesis-break, and go to L3 as leads.

What would change Layer 2’s mind. A Tier 1-2 governance source (Moneycontrol/ET) surfacing a related-party or fraud concern behind the 35pp promoter dilution, OR Q1-FY27 volumes below the 2,100-ton floor for two consecutive quarters (the timeline's own falsification) — either would break the utilisation-ramp thesis and flip ADVANCE->DROP.

Layer 3 read, 19 July 2026 — DEPLOY. Organic near-doubling at a 14th-percentile PE, clean risk sweep — but a management on WATCHLIST for capex/dilution flip-flops. FY26 revenue nearly doubled to Rs 553cr (+79%) with PAT up 80% to Rs 72cr [C001/C002, fact], and this is a genuine spray-dried export capacity ramp, not an acquisition, so the growth-VERIFY alert clears. The 9-type external sweep found nothing HIGH — only 2026 coffee-shipping disruption is a real MEDIUM logistics cost item — and there is no SEBI/CBI/ED action. The one genuine caution is management conduct: promoter fell 69.9%->34.6% partly via equity the company first denied planning (Nov 2025), and freeze-dried capex crept Rs 450->550cr unexplained — WATCHLIST, not FAIL.

What would change Layer 3’s mind. A SEBI/enforcement order on the dilution disclosure, OR a further freeze-dried capex escalation beyond Rs 650cr / commissioning slip past Dec-2027 (Timeline thesis.would_change_my_mind) — either would flip management WATCHLIST->FAIL and DEPLOY->DROP; a further promoter reduction with fresh pledging would do the same.

🚨 What the surface reading misses. The surface reading is: Debt rising suggests deteriorating balance sheet. The research reads it further: The Rs 42 crore debt increase in FY26 was a working capital top-up; the brownfield Rs 45 crore capex was primarily funded from internal accruals. The Rs 400 crore freeze-dried debt load has not yet landed — that arrives FY27 to FY28.

🚨 What the surface reading misses. The surface reading is: Negative 3-year OCF-to-PAT ratio of -0.35x suggests poor cash conversion. The research reads it further: The why_guards wc_model classifies VINCOFE as a distributor-inventory business where inventory and receivables structurally absorb cash as sales grow. The CCC compressed from 921 days in FY22 to 178 days in FY26. FY26 alone turned OCF positive at Rs 15 crore for the first time in the expansion phase.

Lever 6 · Order-book wins — BUILDING. Brownfield expansion from 6,500 to 11,000 metric tons operational from April 2026 — 95% utilisation target backed by customer commitments implies approximately 2,550 to 2,600 metric tons per quarter versus 1,924 in March 2026. What proves it keeps working: 11,000-Ton Brownfield Utilisation Ramp. It stops working if Q1 FY27 volumes come in below 2,100 metric tons and the shortfall persists in Q2, suggesting customer off-take visibility was overstated.

Lever 2 · Value-added mix — BUILDING. Packed product mix rose from 31% to 53% in FY26 and is targeted at 60% in FY27 with packing capacity expanded from 3,000 to 5,000 metric tons — each percentage point of mix shift improves EBITDA per kilogram. What proves it keeps working: Packed Product Mix Shift to 60%. It stops working if Packed mix stays below 55% in three consecutive quarters, indicating packing capacity or demand-side constraints are binding.

Lever 1 · Operating leverage — BUILDING. 5,500 metric ton freeze-dried capacity at Rs 550 crore capex; commercial operations from July 2027 adds a second, premium-margin revenue stream at 30 to 40% higher realisations than spray-dried. What proves it keeps working: Freeze-Dried Coffee Platform (FY28 to FY29 margin engine). It stops working if Freeze-dried capex escalates beyond Rs 650 crore or the commercial commissioning date slips past December 2027, pushing FY28 margin uplift into FY29.

Lever 10 · New geographies — BUILDING. Revenue diversified across five regions with no single market above 38% — geographic spread limits the impact of any one region's disruption and supports the customer-commitment visibility underpinning the utilisation ramp. What proves it keeps working: Geographic Revenue Diversification.

Sources: our stock research file (27 June 2026) · quarterly results through Jun 26 · the company’s own earnings calls. The story check is re-scored every results season; the record below never changes.

Revenue Revenue is the top line: everything the company billed its customers in the period.

Vintage Coffee & Beverages Ltd reported ₹161 Cr of revenue in the Jun 26 quarter, +57.8% year on year. That is the 12th straight quarter of year-on-year growth. The last full year, FY26, came in at ₹553 Cr. The last four reported quarters add to ₹613 Cr.

Why this happened. The 4,500 metric ton brownfield addition was completed using Rs 45 crore from internal accruals and came online in Q1 FY27. Volume guidance for FY27 is 10,200 to 10,400 metric tons at 95% utilisation, with Q1 at 70 to 75% due to the lean season and Q2 onward at full capacity. Customer commitments are described as confirmed across all geographic markets.

FY26 revenue came in at ₹553 Cr (+79.0% on the year). The latest quarter (Jun 26) printed ₹161 Cr, +57.8% year on year — the 12th consecutive quarter of year-over-year growth.

Acceleration check: trailing-twelve-month revenue grew +67.0% over the last 4 quarters against +99.5%/yr over the last 8 — rolling over; TTM profit +58.0% vs +129.5%/yr — rolling over.

FY26-Q4. revenue ₹165 Cr and profit ₹21 Cr as reported.

FY27-Q1. revenue ₹161 Cr and profit ₹21 Cr as reported.

Why-sources: our stock research file (27 June 2026) and the company’s own results for those quarters.

Operating margin Operating margin is what is left of every ₹100 of sales after running the business, before interest and tax. It is the cleanest read on pricing power and cost control.

Vintage Coffee & Beverages Ltd's operating margin is 20.0% in the Jun 26 quarter, +2.0 percentage points against the same quarter a year ago. Across 13 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged −12.0% to 71.0%. The current quarter sits inside that band.

Why this happened. Packed products carry 20 to 30% higher gross profit per metric ton versus bulk. Packing capacity has been expanded from 3,000 to 5,000 metric tons. Management guides realisations to improve 2 to 3% in FY27 from agglomerated coffee focus and consumer pack growth. The mechanism is the mix of product type, not the underlying coffee bean price.

The latest quarter's operating margin is 20.0%, +2.0 pp against the same quarter a year ago. Across 13 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged −12.0%–71.0%.

Why the margin moved: operating margin went +1.9 pp year on year while gross margin went +2.3 pp — the gain came mostly from the gross line: input costs and pricing.

FY26-Q4. revenue ₹165 Cr and profit ₹21 Cr as reported.

FY27-Q1. revenue ₹161 Cr and profit ₹21 Cr as reported.

Why-sources: our stock research file (27 June 2026) and the company’s own results for those quarters.

Net profit Net profit is what survives every cost, interest and tax — the number EPS, dividends and book value all grow from.

Vintage Coffee & Beverages Ltd earned ₹21.0 Cr of net profit in the Jun 26 quarter, +50.0% year on year. It is the 12th consecutive quarter of growth. Full-year FY26 profit was ₹72.0 Cr. That is 13.0% of the quarter's revenue. The same quarter a year earlier earned ₹14.0 Cr.

Jun 26 profit was ₹21.0 Cr, +50.0% year on year — the 12th consecutive quarter of growth. On the full year, FY26 printed ₹72.0 Cr (+80.0%).

Why profit moved: revenue contributed +57.8% and the margin +2.0 pp — the quarter was margin-led: most of the profit growth came from keeping more of each sale.

Pace comparison, last four quarters: profit +66.2% vs revenue +68.8%. Profit and revenue are moving roughly in step.

FY26-Q4. revenue ₹165 Cr and profit ₹21 Cr as reported.

FY27-Q1. revenue ₹161 Cr and profit ₹21 Cr as reported.

Why-sources: our stock research file (27 June 2026) and the company’s own results for those quarters.

Cash flow — the router The P&L says what was earned; the cash-flow statement says what actually arrived. Operating cash flow (CFO) against profit is the cleanest lie detector in the accounts.

Over the last 3 fiscal years −35% of Vintage Coffee & Beverages Ltd's reported profit arrived as operating cash — a gap worth watching. In FY26 that was ₹15.0 Cr of operating cash against ₹72.0 Cr of profit. After ₹160 Cr of capital spending, ₹−145 Cr was left as free cash.

FY26: operating cash of ₹15.0 Cr against reported profit of ₹72.0 Cr, leaving free cash of ₹−145 Cr after ₹160 Cr of capital spending. Across the last 3 fiscal years the conversion rate is −35% of profit.

Cash-flow readings here are annual — that is the resolution our series carries, so this section moves once a year.

🚨 Why conversion sits at −35%: the cash cycle tightened 343 days between FY21 and FY26 — cash that used to wait in the cycle now reaches the bank sooner. Less than 70% of profit arriving as cash is the thing to watch on this page.

Router verdict: the bigger cash user is investment — capital spending ran 8.1× depreciation over three years, so the next section's job is to check what that build-out is buying.

Where the cash goes Working capital is the cash tied up between paying suppliers and getting paid: debtor days (customers owe), inventory days (stock waits), and the cash conversion cycle (the whole loop, in days of sales).

Vintage Coffee & Beverages Ltd's cash conversion cycle runs 178 days in FY26, down from 521 days in FY21. Capital spending ran ₹171 Cr over the last 3 years. At FY26 sales of ₹553 Cr each day of that cycle holds about ₹1.5 Cr, so roughly ₹270 Cr sits inside the business at any moment.

FY26: debtors at 88 days, inventory at 94 days — roughly 3.1 months of stock waiting to sell; that is where the cash sits while it waits — for a full cycle of 178 days, tighter than FY21's 521.

The full loop: cash goes out to suppliers and production on day 0; stock waits 94 days to sell; customers pay about 88 days after that; and suppliers themselves are paid at 3 days — netting out to the 178-day cycle.

In money terms: at FY26 sales of ₹553 Cr, each day of the cycle holds about ₹1.5 Cr — so the 178-day loop keeps roughly ₹270 Cr sitting inside the business at any moment.

On the investment side: capital spending of ₹171 Cr over the last 3 fiscal years against ₹21.0 Cr of depreciation — the company is building well ahead of wear-and-tear. Capital work-in-progress stands at ₹0.0 Cr (FY26) — capacity paid for but not yet earning.

The synthesis: the cash is going into capacity, not disappearing into the cycle — the question becomes whether the new capacity earns.

Return on capital Return on capital employed (ROCE) is the profit the whole business earns on all the money in it — equity and debt together. It is the single best test of whether growth creates value or just size.

Vintage Coffee & Beverages Ltd earns a ROCE of 18% in FY26. That is up from a trough of 0% in FY15. Return on invested capital clears the cost of that capital by +1.2 percentage points, so growth here adds value rather than only size. The wiring behind it is 13.0% net margin on 0.76× asset turns.

FY26 ROCE is 18%, recovered from a FY15 trough of 0% — the full ladder below shows the fall and the climb, undoctored.

Why the return is what it is — the wiring (FY26): 13.0% net margin × 0.76× asset turns × 1.27× balance-sheet leverage ≈ 12.5% on equity. Margin does its share; leverage is modest — this is an earned return, not a borrowed one.

The capstone test — ROIC − WACC: 13.2% − 12.0% = a +1.2 pp spread. The 12.0% is a standing assumption for the cost of capital in India, not a per-stock estimate — read the sign and the size of the spread, not the decimals. Positive but thin — value creation with little room for error.

Debt Debt-to-equity says how much of the business is funded by borrowings. Low is the safe corner; the trend matters as much as the level.

Vintage Coffee & Beverages Ltd carries total debt of ₹124 Cr against shareholder equity of ₹569 Cr as of Mar 26, a debt-to-equity of 0.22 — effectively unlevered. On the annual view that ratio went from 1.05 in FY22 to 0.22 in FY26. The returns elsewhere on this page are therefore earned rather than borrowed.

Mar 26: total debt of ₹124 Cr against shareholder equity of ₹569 Cr — a debt-to-equity of 0.22. On the annual view, debt-to-equity went from 1.05 (FY22) to 0.22 (FY26). The returns on this page are earned, not borrowed.

Ownership Who owns the stock, quarter by quarter: promoters (the controlling owners), foreign and domestic institutions, and the public. Steady accumulation by people close to the numbers is a signal; a quiet register is also an answer.

Domestic institutions added 9.6 points of Vintage Coffee & Beverages Ltd over 8 quarters, the biggest move on the register. That takes domestic institutions to 9.6% of the company. Promoters moved −5.9 points over the same window, to 34.6%. The register is read on the four disclosed classes only; nothing is inferred between filings.

The register over the last two years — Domestic institutions: +9.6 points over 8 quarters to 9.6%; Promoters: −5.9 points over 8 quarters to 34.6%; Foreign institutions: +3.1 points over 8 quarters to 5.4%.

Why the register moved: domestic institutions drove it (+9.6 points), absorbed on the other side by promoters (−5.9 points) — steady accumulation by institutions reading the same numbers this page reads.

Safety line The Z-score estimates how far a company sits from balance-sheet distress — above roughly 3 is safe, below roughly 1.8 is the danger zone. It was built for manufacturers, so it is not applied to banks and lenders.

Vintage Coffee & Beverages Ltd: the Z-score is not available for this stock, so we say so rather than invent one. It is a distance-to-distress estimate from the balance sheet, not a forecast of failure. The debt, cash-flow and return sections above carry the balance-sheet evidence this page does hold, and each of them states its own reporting date.

The safety line in one sentence: the Z-score is not available for this stock, so we say so rather than invent one.

Valuation P/E is the price of ₹1 of annual profit: how many rupees the market pays for each rupee the company earns in a year.

Vintage Coffee & Beverages Ltd trades at 27.4× P/E, about the cheapest it has ever traded. Its long-run median P/E is 52.0×, measured across 3.2 years of weekly readings. This places the multiple against the stock’s own record, and says nothing about what the business is worth.

Today's P/E of 27.4× is about the cheapest it has ever traded, against a long-run median of 52.0× measured over 3.2 years of weekly readings. This is a comparison against the stock's own history — not a claim about what it is worth.

Why the multiple sits where it does: over the past year annual EPS moved +55.5% against a +0.4% price move — earnings outran the price, pushing the multiple DOWN its own range.

The price move, decomposed: over 3y, of the +88.8%/yr price move, ~+121.2%/yr came from earnings growth and ~−32.4 pp from the multiple (compressing). The split is the honest approximate (price return minus earnings growth); it makes the rally itself visible instead of hiding it behind the percentile.

Put together: the multiple is low against its own past, so the story rests on the earnings line underneath it, not the multiple.

What the price assumes This reading works the multiple backwards. It asks one question: what yearly rate of profit growth is a buyer at the market price already paying for? The number is the growth rate that makes eleven years of profit — six years growing, then five fading — add up to that day's market price, once each year is discounted at 11% a year.

At its price on 20 July 2026, Vintage Coffee & Beverages Ltd was priced for profit growth of about 19.5% a year. The market pays that at 27.4× P/E, the 1st percentile of its own 3-year range.

What the two numbers say together. The multiple is low against its own past, and the growth the price is paying for is the whole of what a buyer is backing. Both readings sit on the same earnings, so they are one reading rather than two.

How to hold this number: it is a reading of one day's price, taken on 20 July 2026, not a running figure. A higher price is paying for more growth and a lower price for less, so it moves whenever the price does, and this page does not restate it between measurements. Every other number on this page is read off the live quote.

Stage: Mixed Every business sits somewhere on a fundamental arc, and this page names the spot before anything else. The last twelve quarters of revenue, profit and EPS growth — plus the return the business earns on its capital — are read as curves: Deteriorating (the curves are falling), Turning around (a trough has just formed and the last few quarters lift off it), Improving (the climb off the trough is sustained), Consistent (steadily positive with healthy returns), Topping out (still high but decelerating from the peak). When the curves genuinely disagree the read is Mixed; too little history is No read. CAGR (compound annual growth rate) is the smooth yearly pace that turns the starting value into the latest one — the fairest way to compare growth across different time spans. Read the columns together: if the 1-year number towers over the 10-year, recent growth is running hotter than the long-run trend. A dash means that window is not held, or the base year was a loss (where a growth rate is not meaningful).

Vintage Coffee & Beverages Ltd reads as mixed on its fundamental arc. Mixed — growth is normalizing off a hyper-growth base: revenue growth has eased from +135.9% at its peak to +67.0% but is still expanding, ROCE lifting at 19.7%. The read is built from 12 quarters across 4 curves, on full evidence.

Why it matters: when the curves disagree, the per-curve reads above matter more than any single verdict.

4-Factor Sector Score

65.4/100 — rank 1 of 2 in FMCG - Coffee · 91% evidence confidence

Vintage Coffee & Beverages Ltd scores 65.4 out of 100 against the 2 companies it is compared with in FMCG - Coffee, ranking 1. Acceleration candidate, not a confirmed leader: earnings are strong but sector-relative strength is -11.6% and the one-year return is 4.3%. Do not upgrade until sector-relative strength is above zero and another reported period confirms growth.

The four contributions add to the total exactly: 28.7 + 15.2 + 17.1 + 4.4 = 65.4. This is the SAME number shown on the sector comparison — it is computed once, for the whole peer set, and read here.

What would change it: The read weakens if profit growth turns negative or margin improvement reverses while sector-relative strength deteriorates.

Said versus delivered

What Vintage Coffee & Beverages Ltd's management promised, set against what actually arrived — 4 tracked promises on the record. Read straight from the company’s own earnings calls. A promise that slipped stays on this page after it is met.

Peak Debt Guidance Increased · 3 August 2026. May 2026 described INR 300 crores of additional debt plus INR 100 crores of working capital as the peak debt level, implying INR 400 crores in total. In Aug 2026, management set maximum peak debt at INR 450 crores, a 12.5% increase from the prior call's stated total, without explaining the change.

Phase 2 Funding Narrative Changed · 3 August 2026. In May 2026, management said internal accruals might be insufficient to fund Phase 2 and that ECB financing might be required. In Aug 2026, management instead said Phase 2 would be funded from incremental FY28 cash flow, without explaining what changed in the cash generation or leverage assumptions.

🚨 FDC Premium Assumption Reduced · 3 August 2026. In Feb 2026, management described freeze-dried coffee as having an approximately 40% higher price than spray-dried coffee. In Aug 2026, management cited a 28%-32% difference and later described the EBITDA uplift as 20%-30%, materially below the earlier stated premium; management did not reconcile whether this reflected a changed economic assumption or a switch from price to EBITDA.

FY28 Margin Guidance Appears Higher · 3 August 2026. May 2026 explicitly guided to an EBITDA margin of 20%-21% for the year with eight to nine months of freeze-dried production. In Aug 2026, management endorsed a 23%-24% consolidated margin as the business-plan assumption for the next two years, implying a higher FY28 assumption without explaining a change in the ramp-up or product-mix assumptions.

Every quote above is taken word for word from the company’s own earnings calls.

Frequently asked questions