Vintage Coffee & Beverages Ltd

Price story Before the numbers, the tape. A stock price moves through four repeating seasons: a flat base (stage 1), an advance (2), a top (3), a decline (4). Where the price sits in that cycle frames everything below.

Vintage Coffee & Beverages Ltd trades at ₹174, in a confirmed uptrend and 13 weeks into that stage. That is +15.5% against its own 200-day average. It sits at 93% of a 52-week range of ₹123 to ₹178. On relative strength it has been ahead of the NIFTY 500 on a trailing-13-week view for 4 straight weeks.

Today the stock is in a confirmed uptrend — week 13 of stage 2, confirmed. At ₹174 it trades +15.5% versus its 200-day average and sits at 93% of its 52-week range (₹123–₹178).

Against the market, two honest reads. Cumulative: over the last 7.1 years the stock moved +2,128% while the NIFTY 500 moved +158% — ahead of the index over the full window. Recent form: on a trailing-13-week view the stock has been ahead for 4 straight weeks — the ribbon below is that same metric, week by week.

What would end the trend, mechanically: two Friday closes in a row below the 200-day line. That is the exit rule — no debates.

Story check

Vintage Coffee & Beverages Ltd's story is not scored yet against the markers our research file set on 22 August 2026. Where it sits in its own cycle: Not stated in the research file. Our fortnightly research layers last read it on 22 August 2026.

Our read, 22 August 2026. Instant coffee processor expanding capacity from 6,500 to 11,000 metric tons and building a 5,500 metric ton freeze-dried platform to drive volume and margin escalation.

What is proven. Instant coffee processor expanding capacity from 6,500 to 11,000 metric tons and building a 5,500 metric ton freeze-dried platform to drive volume and margin escalation.

What is not proven yet. Thesis invalidation would occur if full-year FY27 export volume fails to reach 9,000 metric tons indicating lack of customer off-take for the 11,000 metric ton facility, or if freeze-dried coffee capex escalates beyond Rs 650 crore requiring additional equity dilution and delaying commercial operations past December 2027.

🚨 What would change our mind. Thesis invalidation would occur if full-year FY27 export volume fails to reach 9,000 metric tons indicating lack of customer off-take for the 11,000 metric ton facility, or if freeze-dried coffee capex escalates beyond Rs 650 crore requiring additional equity dilution and delaying commercial operations past December 2027.

Layer 1 read, 22 August 2026 — KEEP. Capacity nearly doubled and it shows in the numbers — but management keeps revising how the next plant is funded. Vintage finished taking its instant-coffee capacity from 6,500 to 11,000 tonnes using its own cash, and it shows: quarterly revenue has gone from Rs 30 crore to Rs 161 crore over three years with operating margin holding between 14% and 20%. Earnings per share is up 375% since FY24 while the price has risen just 5% in the last year, so the shares now change hands at 29.8 times earnings against a three-year median above 50 [C009, C008 — the percentile part of that is a model reading, not a hard fact]. The problem is the funding of the next plant: the cost estimate has been raised from Rs 450 crore to Rs 550 crore across three calls, management promised no share issue and then issued shares…

What would change Layer 1’s mind. The Timeline's kill-switch is FY27 export volume failing to reach 9,000 tonnes, or freeze-dried capital escalating past Rs 650 crore. I sharpen it to the nearest checkable observation, which is also the one the driver D1 names as its own stop: if the September 2026 quarter reports sales volume below 2,400 tonnes, then the lean-season inventory build that explains June's flat sequential quarter was not a timing effect but an absorption failure — the customers are not taking the extra capacity…

Layer 2 read, 22 August 2026 — BENCH. The new capacity is working, but outside evidence does not yet clear the funding and cash risks. The completed expansion is producing output: Q1 production was 2,402 tonnes, and the 6,500-to-11,000-tonne project is operating. Yet project cost rose from Rs 450 crore to Rs 550 crore and debt-only funding changed to warrants and equity, so the Management Guidance Credibility Cap supports waiting. With every sector and social stream silent, P2 remains BENCH rather than becoming a thin-data DROP.

What would change Layer 2’s mind. An independent customer or export source confirming enough orders for the Timeline's 9,000-tonne FY27 volume test, with the freeze-dried project still at Rs 550 crore and no fresh equity, would flip BENCH to ADVANCE.

What the company does. FY26 revenue expanded 79.3% YoY to Rs 553 crore and PAT grew 79.8% to Rs 72 crore; Q1 FY27 revenue rose 58.4% YoY to Rs 161 crore as the 11,000 metric ton brownfield facility became operational. Phase 1 freeze-dried coffee plant (5,500 metric tons, Rs 550 crore capex) is scheduled for commercial production in Q2 FY28, with management targeting 22 to 24% consolidated EBITDA margin by FY29. PE is at the 0th to 4th percentile of 10-year history (29.9x vs median 52.3x) while TTM EPS is up 375% over FY24 trough, reflecting multiple compression during volume expansion.

🚨 What the surface reading misses. The surface reading is: Borrowings rose from Rs 82 crore to Rs 124 crore in FY26. The research reads it further: The debt increase reflects working capital financing rather than capex overruns, keeping D/E conservative at 0.22 prior to the freeze-dried debt drawdowns.

🚨 What the surface reading misses. The surface reading is: Cumulative operating cash flow is negative over three years despite accounting profits. The research reads it further: In a distributor-inventory model scaling revenue by 320% across two years, transit inventory and trade credit absorb cash during rapid ramp-up. FY26 OCF inflected positive at Rs 15 crore.

Lever 6 · Order-book wins — BUILDING. Brownfield expansion to 11,000 MT operational in Q1 FY27, targeting 95% full-year utilization (10,500 MT) backed by annual customer commitments. What proves it keeps working: 11,000 MT Spray-Dried Capacity Ramp. It stops working if FY27 production drops below 9,500 MT or customer inventory absorption stalls in Q2-Q3.

Lever 2 · Value-added mix — BUILDING. Consumer pack mix rose to 55% in Q1 FY27 (targeting 60%), driving higher realization and EBITDA per kg within the cost-plus structure. What proves it keeps working: Packed Product Mix Shift Toward 60%. It stops working if Consumer pack share slips below 50% or packing machine line installations stall.

Lever 1 · Operating leverage — BUILDING. Greenfield 5,500 MT freeze-dried coffee plant at Rs 550 crore capex commences commercial operations in Q2 FY28, generating 20-30% higher EBITDA per kg. What proves it keeps working: 5,500 MT Freeze-Dried Platform Commercialization in FY28. It stops working if Commissioning slips beyond September 2027 or customer LOI conversions fall below 60%.

Lever 10 · New geographies — BUILDING. Direct export sales to global brand owners across six geographic regions limit concentration risk and provide demand visibility. What proves it keeps working: Export Market Geographic Diversification. It stops working if Geopolitical sanctions or freight disruptions impact shipments to top export destinations.

Sources: our stock research file (22 August 2026) · quarterly results through Jun 26 · the company’s own earnings calls. The story check is re-scored every results season; the record below never changes.

Revenue Revenue is the top line: everything the company billed its customers in the period.

Vintage Coffee & Beverages Ltd reported ₹161 Cr of revenue in the Jun 26 quarter, +57.8% year on year. That is the 12th straight quarter of year-on-year growth. The last full year, FY26, came in at ₹553 Cr. The last four reported quarters add to ₹613 Cr.

Why this happened. The brownfield expansion increased total spray-dried capacity from 6,500 to 11,000 metric tons as of Q1 FY27. Production ran at 2,402 MT in Q1 while sales were 1,856 MT due to the lean season, building inventory for subsequent delivery. Management guides 10,500 MT of volume in FY27 generating Rs 850-900 crore in revenue.

FY26 revenue came in at ₹553 Cr (+79.0% on the year). The latest quarter (Jun 26) printed ₹161 Cr, +57.8% year on year — the 12th consecutive quarter of year-over-year growth.

Acceleration check: trailing-twelve-month revenue grew +67.0% over the last 4 quarters against +99.5%/yr over the last 8 — rolling over; TTM profit +58.0% vs +129.5%/yr — rolling over.

FY26-Q4. revenue ₹165 Cr and profit ₹21 Cr as reported.

FY27-Q1. revenue ₹161 Cr and profit ₹21 Cr as reported.

Why-sources: our stock research file (22 August 2026) and the company’s own results for those quarters.

Operating margin Operating margin is what is left of every ₹100 of sales after running the business, before interest and tax. It is the cleanest read on pricing power and cost control.

Vintage Coffee & Beverages Ltd's operating margin is 20.0% in the Jun 26 quarter, +2.0 percentage points against the same quarter a year ago. Across 13 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged −12.0% to 71.0%. The current quarter sits inside that band.

Why this happened. Packed products generate Rs 150-160 EBITDA per kg compared to bulk sales. Packing capacity has expanded to 5,000 MT with an additional line in progress. Consumer packs reached 55.0% of sales in Q1 FY27, supporting a 20% OPM.

The latest quarter's operating margin is 20.0%, +2.0 pp against the same quarter a year ago. Across 13 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged −12.0%–71.0%.

Why the margin moved: operating margin went +1.9 pp year on year while gross margin went +2.3 pp — the gain came mostly from the gross line: input costs and pricing.

FY26-Q4. revenue ₹165 Cr and profit ₹21 Cr as reported.

FY27-Q1. revenue ₹161 Cr and profit ₹21 Cr as reported.

Why-sources: our stock research file (22 August 2026) and the company’s own results for those quarters.

Net profit Net profit is what survives every cost, interest and tax — the number EPS, dividends and book value all grow from.

Vintage Coffee & Beverages Ltd earned ₹21.0 Cr of net profit in the Jun 26 quarter, +50.0% year on year. It is the 12th consecutive quarter of growth. Full-year FY26 profit was ₹72.0 Cr. That is 13.0% of the quarter's revenue. The same quarter a year earlier earned ₹14.0 Cr.

Jun 26 profit was ₹21.0 Cr, +50.0% year on year — the 12th consecutive quarter of growth. On the full year, FY26 printed ₹72.0 Cr (+80.0%).

Why profit moved: revenue contributed +57.8% and the margin +2.0 pp — the quarter was margin-led: most of the profit growth came from keeping more of each sale.

Pace comparison, last four quarters: profit +66.2% vs revenue +68.8%. Profit and revenue are moving roughly in step.

FY26-Q4. revenue ₹165 Cr and profit ₹21 Cr as reported.

FY27-Q1. revenue ₹161 Cr and profit ₹21 Cr as reported.

Why-sources: our stock research file (22 August 2026) and the company’s own results for those quarters.

Cash flow — the router The P&L says what was earned; the cash-flow statement says what actually arrived. Operating cash flow (CFO) against profit is the cleanest lie detector in the accounts.

Over the last 3 fiscal years −35% of Vintage Coffee & Beverages Ltd's reported profit arrived as operating cash — a gap worth watching. In FY26 that was ₹15.0 Cr of operating cash against ₹72.0 Cr of profit. After ₹160 Cr of capital spending, ₹−145 Cr was left as free cash.

FY26: operating cash of ₹15.0 Cr against reported profit of ₹72.0 Cr, leaving free cash of ₹−145 Cr after ₹160 Cr of capital spending. Across the last 3 fiscal years the conversion rate is −35% of profit.

Cash-flow readings here are annual — that is the resolution our series carries, so this section moves once a year.

🚨 Why conversion sits at −35%: the cash cycle tightened 343 days between FY21 and FY26 — cash that used to wait in the cycle now reaches the bank sooner. Less than 70% of profit arriving as cash is the thing to watch on this page.

Router verdict: the bigger cash user is investment — capital spending ran 8.1× depreciation over three years, so the next section's job is to check what that build-out is buying.

Where the cash goes Working capital is the cash tied up between paying suppliers and getting paid: debtor days (customers owe), inventory days (stock waits), and the cash conversion cycle (the whole loop, in days of sales).

Vintage Coffee & Beverages Ltd's cash conversion cycle runs 178 days in FY26, down from 521 days in FY21. Capital spending ran ₹171 Cr over the last 3 years. At FY26 sales of ₹553 Cr each day of that cycle holds about ₹1.5 Cr, so roughly ₹270 Cr sits inside the business at any moment.

FY26: debtors at 88 days, inventory at 94 days — roughly 3.1 months of stock waiting to sell; that is where the cash sits while it waits — for a full cycle of 178 days, tighter than FY21's 521.

The full loop: cash goes out to suppliers and production on day 0; stock waits 94 days to sell; customers pay about 88 days after that; and suppliers themselves are paid at 3 days — netting out to the 178-day cycle.

In money terms: at FY26 sales of ₹553 Cr, each day of the cycle holds about ₹1.5 Cr — so the 178-day loop keeps roughly ₹270 Cr sitting inside the business at any moment.

On the investment side: capital spending of ₹171 Cr over the last 3 fiscal years against ₹21.0 Cr of depreciation — the company is building well ahead of wear-and-tear. Capital work-in-progress stands at ₹0.0 Cr (FY26) — capacity paid for but not yet earning.

The synthesis: the cash is going into capacity, not disappearing into the cycle — the question becomes whether the new capacity earns.

Return on capital Return on capital employed (ROCE) is the profit the whole business earns on all the money in it — equity and debt together. It is the single best test of whether growth creates value or just size.

Vintage Coffee & Beverages Ltd earns a ROCE of 18% in FY26. That is up from a trough of 0% in FY15. Return on invested capital clears the cost of that capital by +1.2 percentage points, so growth here adds value rather than only size. The wiring behind it is 13.0% net margin on 0.76× asset turns.

FY26 ROCE is 18%, recovered from a FY15 trough of 0% — the full ladder below shows the fall and the climb, undoctored.

Why the return is what it is — the wiring (FY26): 13.0% net margin × 0.76× asset turns × 1.27× balance-sheet leverage ≈ 12.5% on equity. Margin does its share; leverage is modest — this is an earned return, not a borrowed one.

The capstone test — ROIC − WACC: 13.2% − 12.0% = a +1.2 pp spread. The 12.0% is a standing assumption for the cost of capital in India, not a per-stock estimate — read the sign and the size of the spread, not the decimals. Positive but thin — value creation with little room for error.

Debt Debt-to-equity says how much of the business is funded by borrowings. Low is the safe corner; the trend matters as much as the level.

Vintage Coffee & Beverages Ltd carries total debt of ₹124 Cr against shareholder equity of ₹569 Cr as of Mar 26, a debt-to-equity of 0.22 — effectively unlevered. On the annual view that ratio went from 1.05 in FY22 to 0.22 in FY26. The returns elsewhere on this page are therefore earned rather than borrowed.

Mar 26: total debt of ₹124 Cr against shareholder equity of ₹569 Cr — a debt-to-equity of 0.22. On the annual view, debt-to-equity went from 1.05 (FY22) to 0.22 (FY26). The returns on this page are earned, not borrowed.

Ownership Who owns the stock, quarter by quarter: promoters (the controlling owners), foreign and domestic institutions, and the public. Steady accumulation by people close to the numbers is a signal; a quiet register is also an answer.

Domestic institutions added 9.6 points of Vintage Coffee & Beverages Ltd over 8 quarters, the biggest move on the register. That takes domestic institutions to 9.6% of the company. Promoters moved −5.9 points over the same window, to 34.6%. The register is read on the four disclosed classes only; nothing is inferred between filings.

The register over the last two years — Domestic institutions: +9.6 points over 8 quarters to 9.6%; Promoters: −5.9 points over 8 quarters to 34.6%; Foreign institutions: +3.1 points over 8 quarters to 5.4%.

Why the register moved: domestic institutions drove it (+9.6 points), absorbed on the other side by promoters (−5.9 points) — steady accumulation by institutions reading the same numbers this page reads.

Safety line The Z-score estimates how far a company sits from balance-sheet distress — above roughly 3 is safe, below roughly 1.8 is the danger zone. It was built for manufacturers, so it is not applied to banks and lenders.

Vintage Coffee & Beverages Ltd: the Z-score is not available for this stock, so we say so rather than invent one. It is a distance-to-distress estimate from the balance sheet, not a forecast of failure. The debt, cash-flow and return sections above carry the balance-sheet evidence this page does hold, and each of them states its own reporting date.

The safety line in one sentence: the Z-score is not available for this stock, so we say so rather than invent one.

Valuation P/E is the price of ₹1 of annual profit: how many rupees the market pays for each rupee the company earns in a year.

Vintage Coffee & Beverages Ltd trades at 32.4× P/E, near the bottom of its own range — cheaper only 8% of the time. Its long-run median P/E is 51.8×, measured across 3.3 years of weekly readings. This places the multiple against the stock’s own record, and says nothing about what the business is worth.

Today's P/E of 32.4× is near the bottom of its own range — cheaper only 8% of the time, against a long-run median of 51.8× measured over 3.3 years of weekly readings. This is a comparison against the stock's own history — not a claim about what it is worth.

Why the multiple sits where it does: over the past year annual EPS moved +55.5% against a +16.5% price move — earnings outran the price, pushing the multiple DOWN its own range.

The price move, decomposed: over 3y, of the +85.3%/yr price move, ~+121.5%/yr came from earnings growth and ~−36.2 pp from the multiple (compressing). The split is the honest approximate (price return minus earnings growth); it makes the rally itself visible instead of hiding it behind the percentile.

Put together: the multiple is low against its own past, so the story rests on the earnings line underneath it, not the multiple.

What the price assumes This reading works the multiple backwards. It asks one question: what yearly rate of profit growth is a buyer at the market price already paying for? The number is the growth rate that makes eleven years of profit — six years growing, then five fading — add up to that day's market price, once each year is discounted at 11% a year.

Solved at its 25 August 2026 price, Vintage Coffee & Beverages Ltd was paying for profit growth of about 18.2% a year. Today the market pays 32.4× P/E, the 8th percentile of its own 3-year range.

What the two numbers say together. The multiple is low against its own past, and the growth the price is paying for is the whole of what a buyer is backing.

How to hold this number: it is a reading of one day's price, taken on 25 August 2026, not a running figure — every other number on this page, the multiple included, is read off the live quote as of 18 September 2026. A higher price is paying for more growth and a lower price for less, so it moves whenever the price does, and this page does not restate it between measurements.

Stage: Mixed Every business sits somewhere on a fundamental arc, and this page names the spot before anything else. The last twelve quarters of revenue, profit and EPS growth — plus the return the business earns on its capital — are read as curves: Deteriorating (the curves are falling), Turning around (a trough has just formed and the last few quarters lift off it), Improving (the climb off the trough is sustained), Consistent (steadily positive with healthy returns), Topping out (still high but decelerating from the peak). When the curves genuinely disagree the read is Mixed; too little history is No read. CAGR (compound annual growth rate) is the smooth yearly pace that turns the starting value into the latest one — the fairest way to compare growth across different time spans. Read the columns together: if the 1-year number towers over the 10-year, recent growth is running hotter than the long-run trend. A dash means that window is not held, or the base year was a loss (where a growth rate is not meaningful).

Vintage Coffee & Beverages Ltd reads as mixed on its fundamental arc. Mixed — growth is normalizing off a hyper-growth base: revenue growth has eased from +135.9% at its peak to +67.0% but is still expanding, ROCE lifting at 19.7%. The read is built from 12 quarters across 4 curves, on full evidence.

Why it matters: when the curves disagree, the per-curve reads above matter more than any single verdict.

4-Factor Sector Score

69.5/100 — rank 1 of 2 in FMCG - Coffee · 91% evidence confidence

Vintage Coffee & Beverages Ltd scores 69.5 out of 100 against the 2 companies it is compared with in FMCG - Coffee, ranking 1. Balanced evidence: keep at normal research priority and require another comparable period before raising conviction.

The four contributions add to the total exactly: 28.7 + 15.2 + 17.6 + 8 = 69.5. This is the SAME number shown on the sector comparison — it is computed once, for the whole peer set, and read here.

What would change it: The read weakens if profit growth turns negative or margin improvement reverses while sector-relative strength deteriorates.

Said versus delivered

What Vintage Coffee & Beverages Ltd's management promised, set against what actually arrived — 4 tracked promises on the record. Read straight from the company’s own earnings calls. A promise that slipped stays on this page after it is met.

Peak Debt Guidance Increased · 3 August 2026. May 2026 described INR 300 crores of additional debt plus INR 100 crores of working capital as the peak debt level, implying INR 400 crores in total. In Aug 2026, management set maximum peak debt at INR 450 crores, a 12.5% increase from the prior call's stated total, without explaining the change.

Phase 2 Funding Narrative Changed · 3 August 2026. In May 2026, management said internal accruals might be insufficient to fund Phase 2 and that ECB financing might be required. In Aug 2026, management instead said Phase 2 would be funded from incremental FY28 cash flow, without explaining what changed in the cash generation or leverage assumptions.

🚨 FDC Premium Assumption Reduced · 3 August 2026. In Feb 2026, management described freeze-dried coffee as having an approximately 40% higher price than spray-dried coffee. In Aug 2026, management cited a 28%-32% difference and later described the EBITDA uplift as 20%-30%, materially below the earlier stated premium; management did not reconcile whether this reflected a changed economic assumption or a switch from price to EBITDA.

FY28 Margin Guidance Appears Higher · 3 August 2026. May 2026 explicitly guided to an EBITDA margin of 20%-21% for the year with eight to nine months of freeze-dried production. In Aug 2026, management endorsed a 23%-24% consolidated margin as the business-plan assumption for the next two years, implying a higher FY28 assumption without explaining a change in the ramp-up or product-mix assumptions.

Every quote above is taken word for word from the company’s own earnings calls.

Frequently asked questions