CCL Products (India) Ltd

Price story Before the numbers, the tape. A stock price moves through four repeating seasons: a flat base (stage 1), an advance (2), a top (3), a decline (4). Where the price sits in that cycle frames everything below.

CCL Products (India) Ltd trades at ₹1,133, in a confirmed uptrend and 64 weeks into that stage. That is +7.2% against its own 200-day average. It sits at 79% of a 52-week range of ₹830 to ₹1,214. On relative strength it is currently behind the NIFTY 500 on a trailing-13-week view (2 weeks and counting).

Today the stock is in a confirmed uptrend — week 64 of stage 2, confirmed. At ₹1,133 it trades +7.2% versus its 200-day average and sits at 79% of its 52-week range (₹830–₹1,214).

Against the market, two honest reads. Cumulative: over the last 10.4 years the stock moved +510% while the NIFTY 500 moved +278% — ahead of the index over the full window. Recent form: on a trailing-13-week view the stock is currently behind (2 weeks and counting; last ahead the week of 2026-07-31) — the ribbon below is that same metric, week by week.

What would end the trend, mechanically: two Friday closes in a row below the 200-day line. That is the exit rule — no debates.

Story check

CCL Products (India) Ltd's story is not scored yet against the markers our research file set on 19 July 2026. Where it sits in its own cycle: Not stated in the research file. Our fortnightly research layers last read it on 19 July 2026.

Our read, 19 July 2026. India's largest instant coffee exporter completing a Vietnam capacity build-out while pivoting to branded domestic sales — now generating free cash flow as capex falls away and deleveraging is in progress.

What is proven. India's largest instant coffee exporter completing a Vietnam capacity build-out while pivoting to branded domestic sales — now generating free cash flow as capex falls away and deleveraging is in progress.

What is not proven yet. If EBITDA-per-kg drops below Rs 120 for two consecutive quarters while management's explanation is competitive pricing pressure (not seasonal mix) — that breaks the cost-plus insulation thesis. Alternatively, if the India branded B2C business remains below 6% EBITDA margin beyond FY28 while drawing working capital investment, the B2C compounding thesis fails. Either event would cause me to reconsider the forward runway.

🚨 What would change our mind. If EBITDA-per-kg drops below Rs 120 for two consecutive quarters while management's explanation is competitive pricing pressure (not seasonal mix) — that breaks the cost-plus insulation thesis. Alternatively, if the India branded B2C business remains below 6% EBITDA margin beyond FY28 while drawing working capital investment, the B2C compounding thesis fails. Either event would cause me to reconsider the forward runway.

Layer 1 read, 19 July 2026 — KEEP. Real coffee-platform earnings tripling with strong cash conversion, but the multiple already sits at its 10-year record and FY27 growth was cut to 15%. FY26 revenue rose 43% and EBITDA 32% with net debt cut Rs 750cr to Rs 1,073cr and 3-year OCF/PAT of 1.27 — a genuinely funded, organic Vietnam-led ramp. The problem is price: PE 41 is the 98th percentile of its own history and has risen 24% over 8 quarters, so the market has fully paid for the recent earnings, and management downguided FY27 to 15% flat. That leaves no compression cushion, so it ranks P2 rather than P1.

What would change Layer 1’s mind. EBITDA-per-kg dropping below Rs 120 for two consecutive quarters on competitive (not seasonal-mix) pricing pressure [thesis falsification / R1], which would break the cost-plus insulation and turn the EPS engine flat under a record multiple — flipping P2 toward DROP.

Layer 2 read, 19 July 2026 — BENCH. Real coffee compounder but the multiple is at a 10-year peak and outran a downguided forward — bench, don't chase. CCL's growth is genuine and organic (revenue 836->1224cr on the Vietnam ramp and branded pivot), but the PE sits at the 98.8th percentile at its own 10-year high with zero drawdown, and the earnings underneath are EXPANDING not trough-depressed — so this is a true full re-rating, not a cheap-at-the-bottom illusion. Management then DOWNGUIDED FY27 to 15% while margins compressed (OPM 19.5->15.7%), meaning the multiple outran the forward growth rate. The 'Valuation Cushion Threshold' model says a P2 with an elevated PE and near-par MoS has no buffer to absorb any miss — so I hold it for next fortnight rather than deploy a slot a P1 (CARRARO) deserves.

What would change Layer 2’s mind. A meaningful multiple de-rating that restores MoS cushion (PE back toward its ~29 median) WITHOUT thesis damage, OR a FY27 up-guide + OPM re-expansion (EBITDA-per-kg holding above Rs 120) that re-establishes fresh growth ahead of the multiple — either would flip BENCH to ADVANCE. Conversely, EBITDA-per-kg below Rs 120 for two quarters on competitive pricing would flip toward DROP.

What the company does. CCL operates on a 100% cost-plus model insulating EBITDA-per-kg from green coffee price swings. Vietnam freeze-dried capacity commissioned in FY25 is ramping, branded India sales (Continental) grew to Rs 440 crores in FY26, and FY26 free cash flow was positive for the first time in 4 years (FCF Rs 748 crores per cash decomposition). The FY27 cycle is a normalization from exceptional FY26 tailwinds — guided at 15% volume and EBITDA growth — with the key debate being whether the FY27 free cash flow sustains debt repayment and seeds the next capacity tranche.

🚨 What the surface reading misses. The surface reading is: PE at 98th percentile of 10-year history reads as expensive — the most stretched the stock has ever been on trailing multiples. The research reads it further: OPM currently at 15.7%, which sits at the 2nd percentile of 10-year history (range 15.1-27.8%). The cost-plus model passes green coffee price inflation to customers in revenue but not in EBITDA — FY26 revenue grew 43% while EBITDA grew 32%, compressing the OPM percentage mechanically. Trailing EPS of Rs 29.07 is thus cyclically suppressed at trough margins. Normalized to mid-cycle OPM of 21.5%, EPS would be approximately Rs 45.21 — placing normalized PE at 26.4x, the 35th percentile.

🚨 What the surface reading misses. The surface reading is: OCF/PAT 2.21 reads as exceptional cash generation quality. The research reads it further: Working capital released Rs 318 crores in FY26 (delta_wc = -318 vs +293 in FY24). Inventory days compressed from 262 to 131 — the dominant driver. This is a one-cycle normalization: during FY22-24, CCL built inventory during both the capex ramp and elevated coffee price environment. FY26 represents the mean-reversion as coffee prices stabilized and storage requirements fell. The 3-year aggregate OCF/PAT of 1.27 (not 2.21) is the structural rate.

Sources: our stock research file (19 July 2026) · quarterly results through Jun 26 · the company’s own earnings calls. The story check is re-scored every results season; the record below never changes.

Revenue Revenue is the top line: everything the company billed its customers in the period.

CCL Products (India) Ltd reported ₹1,200 Cr of revenue in the Jun 26 quarter, +13.6% year on year. That is the 12th straight quarter of year-on-year growth. Over 10 years it has compounded at 16.9% a year. The last full year, FY26, came in at ₹4,457 Cr. The last four reported quarters add to ₹4,602 Cr.

FY26 revenue came in at ₹4,457 Cr (+43.5% on the year), capping 10 years at 16.9% compound. The latest quarter (Jun 26) printed ₹1,200 Cr, +13.6% year on year — the 12th consecutive quarter of year-over-year growth.

Pace check: the last four quarters averaged +37.9% growth against the decade's 16.9% — the current year is running faster than its own long-run rate.

Acceleration check: trailing-twelve-month revenue grew +35.8% over the last 4 quarters against +28.8%/yr over the last 8 — accelerating; TTM profit +39.2% vs +29.0%/yr — accelerating.

FY26-Q4. revenue ₹1,224 Cr and profit ₹115 Cr as reported.

FY27-Q1. revenue ₹1,200 Cr and profit ₹117 Cr as reported.

Why-sources: our stock research file (19 July 2026) and the company’s own results for those quarters.

Operating margin Operating margin is what is left of every ₹100 of sales after running the business, before interest and tax. It is the cleanest read on pricing power and cost control.

CCL Products (India) Ltd's operating margin is 16.0% in the Jun 26 quarter, +1.0 percentage points against the same quarter a year ago. Across 13 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged 16.0% to 25.0%. The current quarter sits inside that band.

Why this happened. Vietnam freeze-dried capacity (approximately 36,000-37,000 MT of the 77,000 MT system) was at 25-30% utilization in year 1 per the Feb 2026 concall. Freeze-dried commands higher gross margin than spray-dried, and the old India capacity runs near 100%. As Vietnam ramp progresses to 72-73% system utilization by FY27-end on 15% volume growth, the margin mix should improve. CWIP collapsing from Rs 501 crores (Mar 2024) to Rs 3 crores (Mar 2026) confirms commissioning is complete — the ramp is now an operating story, not a capex story.

The latest quarter's operating margin is 16.0%, +1.0 pp against the same quarter a year ago. Across 13 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged 16.0%–25.0%.

Why the margin moved: operating margin went +1.1 pp year on year while gross margin went +2.5 pp — the gain came mostly from the gross line: input costs and pricing.

FY26-Q4. revenue ₹1,224 Cr and profit ₹115 Cr as reported.

FY27-Q1. revenue ₹1,200 Cr and profit ₹117 Cr as reported.

Why-sources: our stock research file (19 July 2026) and the company’s own results for those quarters.

Net profit Net profit is what survives every cost, interest and tax — the number EPS, dividends and book value all grow from.

CCL Products (India) Ltd earned ₹117 Cr of net profit in the Jun 26 quarter, +62.5% year on year. It is the 6th consecutive quarter of growth. Full-year FY26 profit was ₹388 Cr. The 10-year compound rate is 12.3%. That is 9.8% of the quarter's revenue. The same quarter a year earlier earned ₹72.0 Cr.

Jun 26 profit was ₹117 Cr, +62.5% year on year — the 6th consecutive quarter of growth. On the full year, FY26 printed ₹388 Cr (+25.2%), and the 10-year compound rate is 12.3%.

Why profit moved: revenue contributed +13.6% and the margin +1.0 pp — the quarter was revenue-led, with the margin roughly flat.

Pace comparison, last four quarters: profit +42.6% vs revenue +37.9%. Profit is growing faster than sales — fixed costs are being spread over a bigger base, and each extra rupee of revenue drops more to the bottom line.

FY26-Q4. revenue ₹1,224 Cr and profit ₹115 Cr as reported.

FY27-Q1. revenue ₹1,200 Cr and profit ₹117 Cr as reported.

Why-sources: our stock research file (19 July 2026) and the company’s own results for those quarters.

Cash flow — the router The P&L says what was earned; the cash-flow statement says what actually arrived. Operating cash flow (CFO) against profit is the cleanest lie detector in the accounts.

Over the last 3 fiscal years 127% of CCL Products (India) Ltd's reported profit arrived as operating cash — the cash follows the profit. In FY26 that was ₹858 Cr of operating cash against ₹388 Cr of profit. After ₹110 Cr of capital spending, ₹748 Cr was left as free cash.

FY26: operating cash of ₹858 Cr against reported profit of ₹388 Cr, leaving free cash of ₹748 Cr after ₹110 Cr of capital spending. Across the last 3 fiscal years the conversion rate is 127% of profit.

Cash-flow readings here are annual — that is the resolution our series carries, so this section moves once a year.

Why conversion sits at 127%: the cash cycle tightened 106 days between FY21 and FY26 — cash that used to wait in the cycle now reaches the bank sooner.

Router verdict: the bigger cash user is investment — capital spending ran 3.1× depreciation over three years, so the next section's job is to check what that build-out is buying.

Where the cash goes Working capital is the cash tied up between paying suppliers and getting paid: debtor days (customers owe), inventory days (stock waits), and the cash conversion cycle (the whole loop, in days of sales).

CCL Products (India) Ltd's cash conversion cycle runs 166 days in FY26, down from 272 days in FY21. Capital spending ran ₹1,067 Cr over the last 3 years. At FY26 sales of ₹4,457 Cr each day of that cycle holds about ₹12.2 Cr, so roughly ₹2,027 Cr sits inside the business at any moment.

FY26: debtors at 67 days, inventory at 131 days — roughly 4.3 months of stock waiting to sell; that is where the cash sits while it waits — for a full cycle of 166 days, tighter than FY21's 272.

The full loop: cash goes out to suppliers and production on day 0; stock waits 131 days to sell; customers pay about 67 days after that; and suppliers themselves are paid at 32 days — netting out to the 166-day cycle.

In money terms: at FY26 sales of ₹4,457 Cr, each day of the cycle holds about ₹12.2 Cr — so the 166-day loop keeps roughly ₹2,027 Cr sitting inside the business at any moment.

On the investment side: capital spending of ₹1,067 Cr over the last 3 fiscal years against ₹348 Cr of depreciation — the company is building well ahead of wear-and-tear. Capital work-in-progress stands at ₹3.0 Cr (FY26) — capacity paid for but not yet earning.

The synthesis: the cash is going into capacity, not disappearing into the cycle — the question becomes whether the new capacity earns.

Return on capital Return on capital employed (ROCE) is the profit the whole business earns on all the money in it — equity and debt together. It is the single best test of whether growth creates value or just size.

CCL Products (India) Ltd earns a ROCE of 16% in FY26. That is up from a trough of 12% in FY24. Return on invested capital clears the cost of that capital by +3.7 percentage points, so growth here adds value rather than only size. The wiring behind it is 8.7% net margin on 1.03× asset turns.

FY26 ROCE is 16%, recovered from a FY24 trough of 12% — the full ladder below shows the fall and the climb, undoctored.

Why the return is what it is — the wiring (FY26): 8.7% net margin × 1.03× asset turns × 1.84× balance-sheet leverage ≈ 16.5% on equity. Margin does its share; leverage is a meaningful part of the equation.

The capstone test — ROIC − WACC: 15.7% − 12.0% = a +3.7 pp spread. The 12.0% is a standing assumption for the cost of capital in India, not a per-stock estimate — read the sign and the size of the spread, not the decimals. Positive but thin — value creation with little room for error.

Debt Debt-to-equity says how much of the business is funded by borrowings. Low is the safe corner; the trend matters as much as the level.

CCL Products (India) Ltd carries total debt of ₹1,324 Cr against shareholder equity of ₹2,345 Cr as of Mar 26, a debt-to-equity of 0.56. On the annual view that ratio went from 0.52 in FY22 to 0.56 in FY26. Read the returns elsewhere on this page with that leverage in mind.

Why this happened. Borrowings fell Rs 491 crores in FY26 to Rs 1,324 crores per the Mar 2026 balance sheet. Management guided FY27 exit debt at Rs 1,100-1,200 crores. At the guided 7.5% borrowing rate, every Rs 100 crores reduction saves approximately Rs 7.5 crores PAT annually. Additionally, Rs 25-30 crores of Vietnam capitalized interest (which suppressed FY25 interest expense) was disclosed under analyst probing in the May 2026 call — this is now flowing through P&L and is reflected in FY26 numbers. FY27 interest cost should stabilize at approximately Rs 100 crores against the Rs 1,100-1,200 crore debt range.

Mar 26: total debt of ₹1,324 Cr against shareholder equity of ₹2,345 Cr — a debt-to-equity of 0.56. On the annual view, debt-to-equity went from 0.52 (FY22) to 0.56 (FY26). Read the returns on this page with that leverage in mind.

Ownership Who owns the stock, quarter by quarter: promoters (the controlling owners), foreign and domestic institutions, and the public. Steady accumulation by people close to the numbers is a signal; a quiet register is also an answer.

Foreign institutions added 2.3 points of CCL Products (India) Ltd over 8 quarters, the biggest move on the register. That takes foreign institutions to 12.1% of the company. Domestic institutions moved +0.5 points over the same window, to 21.1%. The register is read on the four disclosed classes only; nothing is inferred between filings.

The register over the last two years — Foreign institutions: +2.3 points over 8 quarters to 12.1%; Domestic institutions: +0.5 points over 8 quarters to 21.1%; Promoters: +0.0 points over 8 quarters to 46.1%.

Why the register moved: foreign institutions drove it (+2.3 points), alongside domestic institutions (+0.5 points) — steady accumulation by institutions reading the same numbers this page reads.

Safety line The Z-score estimates how far a company sits from balance-sheet distress — above roughly 3 is safe, below roughly 1.8 is the danger zone. It was built for manufacturers, so it is not applied to banks and lenders.

CCL Products (India) Ltd: the Z-score is not available for this stock, so we say so rather than invent one. It is a distance-to-distress estimate from the balance sheet, not a forecast of failure. The debt, cash-flow and return sections above carry the balance-sheet evidence this page does hold, and each of them states its own reporting date.

The safety line in one sentence: the Z-score is not available for this stock, so we say so rather than invent one.

Valuation P/E is the price of ₹1 of annual profit: how many rupees the market pays for each rupee the company earns in a year.

CCL Products (India) Ltd trades at 35.0× P/E, at the pricey end of its own range (85th percentile). Its long-run median P/E is 28.8×, measured across 10.4 years of weekly readings. This places the multiple against the stock’s own record, and says nothing about what the business is worth.

Today's P/E of 35.0× is at the pricey end of its own range (85th percentile), against a long-run median of 28.8× measured over 10.4 years of weekly readings. This is a comparison against the stock's own history — not a claim about what it is worth.

Why the multiple sits where it does: over the past year annual EPS moved +25.1% against a +31.9% price move — the price outran earnings, pushing the multiple UP its own range.

The price move, decomposed: over 5y, of the +22.7%/yr price move, ~+18.1%/yr came from earnings growth and ~+4.6 pp from the multiple (expanding); over 10y, of the +15.7%/yr price move, ~+12.5%/yr came from earnings growth and ~+3.2 pp from the multiple (expanding). The split is the honest approximate (price return minus earnings growth); it makes the rally itself visible instead of hiding it behind the percentile.

Put together: the multiple is full against its own past, so the story rests on the earnings line underneath it, not the multiple.

What the price assumes This reading works the multiple backwards. It asks one question: what yearly rate of profit growth is a buyer at the market price already paying for? The number is the growth rate that makes eleven years of profit — six years growing, then five fading — add up to that day's market price, once each year is discounted at 11% a year.

At its price on 20 July 2026, CCL Products (India) Ltd was priced for profit growth of about 23.5% a year. Profit itself has compounded 12.3% a year over the past 10 years. The market pays that at 35.0× P/E, the 85th percentile of its own 10-year range.

What the two numbers say together. The multiple is full against its own past, and the growth the price is paying for is above what this company has actually delivered. Both readings sit on the same earnings, so they are one reading rather than two.

How to hold this number: it is a reading of one day's price, taken on 20 July 2026, not a running figure. A higher price is paying for more growth and a lower price for less, so it moves whenever the price does, and this page does not restate it between measurements. Every other number on this page is read off the live quote.

Stage: Consistent Every business sits somewhere on a fundamental arc, and this page names the spot before anything else. The last twelve quarters of revenue, profit and EPS growth — plus the return the business earns on its capital — are read as curves: Deteriorating (the curves are falling), Turning around (a trough has just formed and the last few quarters lift off it), Improving (the climb off the trough is sustained), Consistent (steadily positive with healthy returns), Topping out (still high but decelerating from the peak). When the curves genuinely disagree the read is Mixed; too little history is No read. CAGR (compound annual growth rate) is the smooth yearly pace that turns the starting value into the latest one — the fairest way to compare growth across different time spans. Read the columns together: if the 1-year number towers over the 10-year, recent growth is running hotter than the long-run trend. A dash means that window is not held, or the base year was a loss (where a growth rate is not meaningful).

CCL Products (India) Ltd reads as consistent on its fundamental arc. Consistent — revenue, profit and EPS growth have stayed positive through the window, with ROCE at 21.6% and holding. The read is built from 12 quarters across 4 curves, on full evidence.

Why it matters: steady curves with healthy returns are the compounding setup — the risk is the price, not the business.

4-Factor Sector Score

64.8/100 — rank 2 of 2 in FMCG - Coffee · 97% evidence confidence

CCL Products (India) Ltd scores 64.8 out of 100 against the 2 companies it is compared with in FMCG - Coffee, ranking 2. Balanced evidence: keep at normal research priority and require another comparable period before raising conviction.

The four contributions add to the total exactly: 32 + 13.6 + 5.2 + 14 = 64.8. This is the SAME number shown on the sector comparison — it is computed once, for the whole peer set, and read here.

What would change it: The read weakens if profit growth turns negative or margin improvement reverses while sector-relative strength deteriorates.

Said versus delivered

What CCL Products (India) Ltd's management promised, set against what actually arrived — 4 tracked promises on the record. Read straight from the company’s own earnings calls. A promise that slipped stays on this page after it is met.

Small-Pack Capacity Expansion Deferred · 28 July 2026. In February 2026, management said small-pack capacity was nearly full and committed to expanding it in the near future. In July 2026, management said it was not building any expansion and did not expect expansion capex for the next two years, without explaining why the earlier small-pack expansion plan had been deferred.

EBITDA Per Kilo Confidence Shift · 28 July 2026. In May 2026, management acknowledged that EBITDA per kilo could soften and said it would only try to offset the risk and maintain the metric. In July 2026, management described EBITDA per kilo as certain to remain unchanged throughout the year, representing a notable increase in confidence that was not supported by a clearly articulated change beyond the Q1 result.

FY27 Growth Guidance Ceiling Formally Removed · 8 May 2026. In the Feb 2026 call, management confirmed the 15%-20% EBITDA and volume growth range for FY27 remained valid, with the CEO explicitly agreeing when pressed that growth above 20% was possible and stating the team would continue to strive for it. The Nov 2025 call similarly anchored long-term EBITDA guidance at 15%-20% year-on-year. In the May 2026 call, both metrics were formally guided at specifically around 15%, eliminating the upper bound of the prior range - the base-effect factors cited as justification were substantially known at the time of the Feb 2026 call when management still described the full 15%-20% range as achievable or beatable.

B2C Business EBITDA Margin Target Stepped Down Without Explanation · 8 May 2026. In the Nov 2025 call, management explicitly stated the B2C segment EBITDA margin was 5%-6% and committed to maintaining those levels going forward as the company reinvests in growth. In the May 2026 call, the same business is described as running at 4%-5% EBITDA, again presented as the sustained target going forward. No explanation was provided for the 100-200 basis point downward revision to a stated forward-looking commitment in a segment management has consistently described as the company's core long-term growth and FMCG platform.

Every quote above is taken word for word from the company’s own earnings calls.

Frequently asked questions