Uno Minda Ltd

Price story Before the numbers, the tape. A stock price moves through four repeating seasons: a flat base (stage 1), an advance (2), a top (3), a decline (4). Where the price sits in that cycle frames everything below.

Uno Minda Ltd trades at ₹1,284, in a confirmed uptrend and 6 weeks into that stage. That is +9.9% against its own 200-day average. It sits at 88% of a 52-week range of ₹1,013 to ₹1,321. On relative strength it has been ahead of the NIFTY 500 on a trailing-13-week view for 11 straight weeks.

Today the stock is in a confirmed uptrend — week 6 of stage 2, confirmed. At ₹1,284 it trades +9.9% versus its 200-day average and sits at 88% of its 52-week range (₹1,013–₹1,321).

Against the market, two honest reads. Cumulative: over the last 10.5 years the stock moved +4,136% while the NIFTY 500 moved +266% — ahead of the index over the full window. Recent form: on a trailing-13-week view the stock has been ahead for 11 straight weeks — the ribbon below is that same metric, week by week.

What would end the trend, mechanically: two Friday closes in a row below the 200-day line. That is the exit rule — no debates.

Story check

Uno Minda Ltd's story is not scored yet against the markers our research file set on 22 August 2026. Where it sits in its own cycle: MID_EXPANSION. Our fortnightly research layers last read it on 22 August 2026.

Our read, 22 August 2026. Tier-1 auto-component supplier compounding revenue through vehicle premiumization, kit-value expansion and emerging EV powertrains, while valuation remains fairly priced on the normalized engine read.

From the numbers. The deterministic normalized engine places operating conditions in MID_EXPANSION and labels valuation FAIRLY_PRICED. Trailing PE is 59.7x at the 70th percentile and normalized PE is 59.2x at the 69th percentile.…

From the price. Price stage 2, week 6 — above its 200-day line, relative strength rising.

From the research. Tier-1 auto-component supplier compounding revenue through vehicle premiumization, kit-value expansion and emerging EV powertrains, while valuation remains fairly priced on the normalized engine read.

🚨 Where they disagree. The deterministic normalized engine places operating conditions in MID_EXPANSION and labels valuation FAIRLY_PRICED. Trailing PE is 59.7x at the 70th percentile and normalized PE is 59.2x at the 69th percentile. Reported Q1 FY27 OPM was 10.0%, below the normalized 11.4%, so earnings are not supported by peak margins. The latest weekly PE/PB snapshot reports FII_SELLING and an earnings-driven decomposition; its 55.5x PE snapshot is not used as the current curve value.

What is proven. Tier-1 auto-component supplier compounding revenue through vehicle premiumization, kit-value expansion and emerging EV powertrains, while valuation remains fairly priced on the normalized engine read.

What is not proven yet. A simultaneous breakdown where reported operating margin fails to recover above 10.5% over three consecutive quarters due to inability to pass on input costs, coupled with execution delays exceeding 12 months in the Khed and Chhatrapati Sambhajinagar EV powertrain facilities.

🚨 What would change our mind. A simultaneous breakdown where reported operating margin fails to recover above 10.5% over three consecutive quarters due to inability to pass on input costs, coupled with execution delays exceeding 12 months in the Khed and Chhatrapati Sambhajinagar EV powertrain facilities.

Layer 1 read, 22 August 2026 — KEEP. Sales grew 24% but profit grew 2% — the margin ate the whole quarter, and the shares are not cheap. Uno Minda keeps winning more content per vehicle — lamps, switches, alloy wheels, and now electric-vehicle parts where quarterly revenue jumped 78% to ₹542 crore. The trouble is the June 2026 quarter: ₹5,557 crore of sales at a 10.0% operating margin against the company's own 11% ±0.5% guidance for the year, so profit rose only 2.3% while sales rose 23.8%. Management explains it as raw-material and gas inflation with customer price recoveries lagging, and adds that even a full cost pass-through still shaves about 40 basis points off gross margin because they recover the cost without a markup — a real, believable mechanism, but it means margin recovery is now the whole investment case, and…

What would change Layer 1’s mind. Two consecutive quarters with operating margin back at or above 10.8% — the timeline's own M1 milestone — with profit growth reconnecting to sales growth, would take this to P1. Consuming the timeline's falsification line and driver D1's kill switch, what flips it down is operating margin failing to recover above 10.5% for three straight quarters because costs cannot be passed on, OR the Khed electric-powertrain plant slipping beyond FY27: either would mean ₹1,750 crore of annual capital…

Layer 2 read, 22 August 2026 — BENCH. Vehicle demand is healthy, but Uno Minda has not yet turned that growth into better margins or matching profit. Revenue grew strongly while profit barely moved because operating and gross margins fell. Management says commodity recovery arrives without markup and at different speeds, while its annual margin target still requires a recovery. Broad sector demand is positive, but the current external record does not yet prove that Uno Minda captures it profitably.

What would change Layer 2’s mind. ADVANCE if the next reported quarter prints an operating margin at or above 10.5%, the lower end of management's C025 guidance range, and management attributes the recovery to completed commodity pass-through rather than a one-off.

The test written in advance. A simultaneous breakdown where reported operating margin fails to recover above 10.5% over three consecutive quarters due to inability to pass on input costs, coupled with execution delays exceeding 12 months in the Khed and Chhatrapati Sambhajinagar EV powertrain facilities. — the thesis as written as stated by the next result.

The test written in advance. Valuation Multiple Compression Risk — Valuation Multiple Compression Risk TTM EPS growth below 12% YoY together with institutional selling. by the next result.

The test written in advance. Commodity Cost Inflation and Pass-Through Lag — Commodity Cost Inflation and Pass-Through Lag Reported OPM below 10.0% in consecutive quarterly results. by the next result.

What the company does. Revenue growth outpaces underlying auto OEM production through content per vehicle across LED lighting, electronic switches, alloy wheels and EV drive systems. Capital allocation is in an active reinvestment cycle with Rs 1,750 Cr FY27 capex targeting EV powertrains, 4W seating and sunroofs; reported ROCE is 19.6%. The deterministic normalized valuation read is FAIRLY_PRICED, but a 59.7x trailing PE leaves limited tolerance for operational misses despite OPM being below normalized levels.

Lever 2 · Value-added mix — BUILDING. LED lighting, electronics and premium switchgear can increase content per vehicle across OEM platforms. What proves it keeps working: Kit-Value Expansion and Vehicle Premiumization. It stops working if OEMs slow LED adoption or de-content entry-level vehicle variants because of consumer price sensitivity.

Lever 14 · A bigger market to sell into — BUILDING. Four-wheeler seating and automotive sunroofs add new addressable categories. What proves it keeps working: Adjacent Category Greenfield Additions (Sunroof & Seating). It stops working if Customer programs do not attain planned volumes or incumbent seating suppliers compress prices.

Lever 10 · New geographies — BUILDING. Pure India exports are targeted above Rs 1,500 Cr from a Rs 600 Cr FY26 base. What proves it keeps working: Global Export Market Share Expansion. It stops working if Global vehicle demand weakens or trade barriers impair export competitiveness.

Sources: our stock research file (22 August 2026) · quarterly results through Jun 26 · the company’s own earnings calls. The story check is re-scored every results season; the record below never changes.

Revenue Revenue is the top line: everything the company billed its customers in the period.

Uno Minda Ltd reported ₹5,557 Cr of revenue in the Jun 26 quarter, +23.8% year on year. That is the 11th straight quarter of year-on-year growth. Over 10 years it has compounded at 22.8% a year. The last full year, FY26, came in at ₹19,658 Cr. The last four reported quarters add to ₹20,725 Cr.

Why this happened. Green mobility revenue was Rs 542 Cr in Q1 FY27, up 78% YoY according to management. Khed and Chhatrapati Sambhajinagar facilities are intended to supply electric drive units and dedicated hybrid transmissions. Management cited approximately Rs 1,200 Cr combined capex and peak revenue north of Rs 2,500 Cr, potentially above Rs 3,000 Cr.

FY26 revenue came in at ₹19,658 Cr (+17.2% on the year), capping 10 years at 22.8% compound. The latest quarter (Jun 26) printed ₹5,557 Cr, +23.8% year on year — the 11th consecutive quarter of year-over-year growth.

Pace check: the last four quarters averaged +18.7% growth against the decade's 22.8% — the current year is running slower than its own long-run rate.

Acceleration check: trailing-twelve-month revenue grew +18.8% over the last 4 quarters against +18.5%/yr over the last 8 — stabilising; TTM profit +15.5% vs +16.2%/yr — stabilising.

FY26-Q4. revenue ₹5,336 Cr and profit ₹352 Cr as reported.

FY27-Q1. revenue ₹5,557 Cr and profit ₹316 Cr as reported.

Why-sources: our stock research file (22 August 2026) and the company’s own results for those quarters.

Operating margin Operating margin is what is left of every ₹100 of sales after running the business, before interest and tax. It is the cleanest read on pricing power and cost control.

Uno Minda Ltd's operating margin is 10.0% in the Jun 26 quarter, −2.0 percentage points against the same quarter a year ago. Across 13 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged 5.0% to 12.0%. The current quarter sits inside that band.

The latest quarter's operating margin is 10.0%, −2.0 pp against the same quarter a year ago. Across 13 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged 5.0%–12.0%.

🚨 Why the margin moved: operating margin went −1.8 pp year on year while gross margin went −3.5 pp — the loss came mostly from the gross line: input costs and pricing.

FY26-Q4. revenue ₹5,336 Cr and profit ₹352 Cr as reported.

FY27-Q1. revenue ₹5,557 Cr and profit ₹316 Cr as reported.

Why-sources: our stock research file (22 August 2026) and the company’s own results for those quarters.

Net profit Net profit is what survives every cost, interest and tax — the number EPS, dividends and book value all grow from.

Uno Minda Ltd earned ₹316 Cr of net profit in the Jun 26 quarter, +2.3% year on year. It is the 5th consecutive quarter of growth. Full-year FY26 profit was ₹1,284 Cr. The 10-year compound rate is 26.4%. That is 5.7% of the quarter's revenue. The same quarter a year earlier earned ₹309 Cr.

Jun 26 profit was ₹316 Cr, +2.3% year on year — the 5th consecutive quarter of growth. On the full year, FY26 printed ₹1,284 Cr (+25.8%), and the 10-year compound rate is 26.4%.

Why profit moved: revenue contributed +23.8% and the margin −2.0 pp — the quarter was revenue-led despite a thinner margin.

Pace comparison, last four quarters: profit +15.9% vs revenue +18.7%. Profit and revenue are moving roughly in step.

FY26-Q4. revenue ₹5,336 Cr and profit ₹352 Cr as reported.

FY27-Q1. revenue ₹5,557 Cr and profit ₹316 Cr as reported.

Why-sources: our stock research file (22 August 2026) and the company’s own results for those quarters.

Cash flow — the router The P&L says what was earned; the cash-flow statement says what actually arrived. Operating cash flow (CFO) against profit is the cleanest lie detector in the accounts.

Over the last 3 fiscal years 117% of Uno Minda Ltd's reported profit arrived as operating cash — the cash follows the profit. In FY26 that was ₹1,720 Cr of operating cash against ₹1,284 Cr of profit. After ₹1,629 Cr of capital spending, ₹91.0 Cr was left as free cash.

FY26: operating cash of ₹1,720 Cr against reported profit of ₹1,284 Cr, leaving free cash of ₹91.0 Cr after ₹1,629 Cr of capital spending. Across the last 3 fiscal years the conversion rate is 117% of profit.

Cash-flow readings here are annual — that is the resolution our series carries, so this section moves once a year.

Why conversion sits at 117%: the cash cycle stretched 19 days between FY21 and FY26 — more of each rupee of profit waits inside the cycle before arriving.

Router verdict: the bigger cash user is investment — capital spending ran 2.5× depreciation over three years, so the next section's job is to check what that build-out is buying.

Where the cash goes Working capital is the cash tied up between paying suppliers and getting paid: debtor days (customers owe), inventory days (stock waits), and the cash conversion cycle (the whole loop, in days of sales).

Uno Minda Ltd's cash conversion cycle runs 37 days in FY26, up from 18 days in FY21. Capital spending ran ₹4,640 Cr over the last 3 years. At FY26 sales of ₹19,658 Cr each day of that cycle holds about ₹53.9 Cr, so roughly ₹1,993 Cr sits inside the business at any moment.

Why this happened. Uno Minda targets outgrowth versus auto production through rising content per vehicle. In lighting, FY26 revenue was Rs 4,402 Cr and management cited LED penetration of 30% for two-wheelers and 20% for four-wheelers in Q3 FY26. Switching systems generated Rs 4,871 Cr in FY26 and management cited feature-rich systems and customer share gains.

FY26: debtors at 50 days, inventory at 62 days — roughly 2.0 months of stock waiting to sell; that is where the cash sits while it waits — for a full cycle of 37 days, looser than FY21's 18.

The full loop: cash goes out to suppliers and production on day 0; stock waits 62 days to sell; customers pay about 50 days after that; and suppliers themselves are paid at 75 days — netting out to the 37-day cycle.

In money terms: at FY26 sales of ₹19,658 Cr, each day of the cycle holds about ₹53.9 Cr — so the 37-day loop keeps roughly ₹1,993 Cr sitting inside the business at any moment.

On the investment side: capital spending of ₹4,640 Cr over the last 3 fiscal years against ₹1,845 Cr of depreciation — the company is building well ahead of wear-and-tear. Capital work-in-progress stands at ₹746 Cr (FY26) — capacity paid for but not yet earning.

The synthesis: the cash is going into capacity, not disappearing into the cycle — the question becomes whether the new capacity earns.

Return on capital Return on capital employed (ROCE) is the profit the whole business earns on all the money in it — equity and debt together. It is the single best test of whether growth creates value or just size.

Uno Minda Ltd earns a ROCE of 20% in FY26. That is up from a trough of 6% in FY14. A return-on-invested-capital spread against the cost of capital is not computable from what is held here. The wiring behind it is 6.5% net margin on 1.44× asset turns.

FY26 ROCE is 20%, recovered from a FY14 trough of 6% — the full ladder below shows the fall and the climb, undoctored.

Why the return is what it is — the wiring (FY26): 6.5% net margin × 1.44× asset turns × 2.01× balance-sheet leverage ≈ 18.8% on equity. Margin does its share; leverage is a meaningful part of the equation.

The quarterly return curves and the return-on-invested-capital overlay, which only the second data source carries, are not drawn on this page: its two data sources disagree by up to 8.2% on reported income across 14 comparable periods. A figure two sources cannot agree on is not drawn — the gap is a decision, not missing data.

Debt Debt-to-equity says how much of the business is funded by borrowings; interest cover says how many times operating profit pays the interest bill. Low and high, respectively, is the safe corner.

Uno Minda Ltd carries ₹2,740 Cr of borrowings against ₹6,829 Cr of equity in FY26, a debt-to-equity of 0.40. Operating profit covers the interest bill 12×. Over 5 years borrowings went from ₹1,159 Cr to ₹2,740 Cr. Capital spending ran ₹4,640 Cr across the last 3 of those years.

FY26: borrowings of ₹2,740 Cr against equity of ₹6,829 Cr — a debt-to-equity of 0.40. Operating profit covers the interest bill 12×. Over 5 years borrowings went from ₹1,159 Cr to ₹2,740 Cr while capital spending ran ₹4,640 Cr in just the last 3 — part of the build-out is riding on borrowed money.

The total-debt and debt-to-equity series, which only the second data source carries, are not drawn on this page: its two data sources disagree by up to 8.2% on reported income across 14 comparable periods. A figure two sources cannot agree on is not drawn — the gap is a decision, not missing data.

Ownership Who owns the stock, quarter by quarter: promoters (the controlling owners), foreign and domestic institutions, and the public. Steady accumulation by people close to the numbers is a signal; a quiet register is also an answer.

Domestic institutions added 1.1 points of Uno Minda Ltd over 8 quarters, the biggest move on the register. That takes domestic institutions to 17.5% of the company. Foreign institutions moved −0.5 points over the same window, to 8.2%. The register is read on the four disclosed classes only; nothing is inferred between filings.

The register over the last two years — Domestic institutions: +1.1 points over 8 quarters to 17.5%; Foreign institutions: −0.5 points over 8 quarters to 8.2%; Promoters: −0.4 points over 8 quarters to 68.4%.

Why the register moved: domestic institutions drove it (+1.1 points), absorbed on the other side by foreign institutions (−0.5 points) — steady accumulation by institutions reading the same numbers this page reads.

Safety line The Z-score estimates how far a company sits from balance-sheet distress — above roughly 3 is safe, below roughly 1.8 is the danger zone. It was built for manufacturers, so it is not applied to banks and lenders.

Uno Minda Ltd: the Z-score is not available for this stock, so we say so rather than invent one. It is a distance-to-distress estimate from the balance sheet, not a forecast of failure. The debt, cash-flow and return sections above carry the balance-sheet evidence this page does hold, and each of them states its own reporting date.

The safety line in one sentence: the Z-score is not available for this stock, so we say so rather than invent one.

Valuation P/E is the price of ₹1 of annual profit: how many rupees the market pays for each rupee the company earns in a year.

Uno Minda Ltd trades at 60.7× P/E, at the pricey end of its own range (72nd percentile). Its long-run median P/E is 50.3×, measured across 10.5 years of weekly readings. This places the multiple against the stock’s own record, and says nothing about what the business is worth.

Today's P/E of 60.7× is at the pricey end of its own range (72nd percentile), against a long-run median of 50.3× measured over 10.5 years of weekly readings. This is a comparison against the stock's own history — not a claim about what it is worth.

Why the multiple sits where it does: over the past year annual EPS moved +26.2% against a −2.7% price move — earnings outran the price, pushing the multiple DOWN its own range.

The price move, decomposed: over 5y, of the +29.2%/yr price move, ~+26.5%/yr came from earnings growth and ~+2.7 pp from the multiple (expanding); over 10y, of the +38.1%/yr price move, ~+24.0%/yr came from earnings growth and ~+14.1 pp from the multiple (expanding). The split is the honest approximate (price return minus earnings growth); it makes the rally itself visible instead of hiding it behind the percentile.

Put together: the multiple is full against its own past, so the story rests on the earnings line underneath it, not the multiple.

The PEG ratio and its quarterly curve, which only the second data source carries, are not drawn on this page: its two data sources disagree by up to 8.2% on reported income across 14 comparable periods. A figure two sources cannot agree on is not drawn — the gap is a decision, not missing data.

What the price assumes This reading works the multiple backwards. It asks one question: what yearly rate of profit growth is a buyer at the market price already paying for? The number is the growth rate that makes eleven years of profit — six years growing, then five fading — add up to that day's market price, once each year is discounted at 11% a year.

Solved at its 26 August 2026 price, Uno Minda Ltd was paying for profit growth of about 29.1% a year. Profit itself has compounded 26.4% a year over the past 10 years. Today the market pays 60.7× P/E, the 72nd percentile of its own 11-year range.

What the two numbers say together. The multiple is full against its own past, and the growth the price is paying for is close to what this company has actually delivered.

How to hold this number: it is a reading of one day's price, taken on 26 August 2026, not a running figure — every other number on this page, the multiple included, is read off the live quote as of 18 September 2026. A higher price is paying for more growth and a lower price for less, so it moves whenever the price does, and this page does not restate it between measurements.

Stage: Consistent Every business sits somewhere on a fundamental arc, and this page names the spot before anything else. The last twelve quarters of revenue, profit and EPS growth — plus the return the business earns on its capital — are read as curves: Deteriorating (the curves are falling), Turning around (a trough has just formed and the last few quarters lift off it), Improving (the climb off the trough is sustained), Consistent (steadily positive with healthy returns), Topping out (still high but decelerating from the peak). When the curves genuinely disagree the read is Mixed; too little history is No read. CAGR (compound annual growth rate) is the smooth yearly pace that turns the starting value into the latest one — the fairest way to compare growth across different time spans. Read the columns together: if the 1-year number towers over the 10-year, recent growth is running hotter than the long-run trend. A dash means that window is not held, or the base year was a loss (where a growth rate is not meaningful).

Uno Minda Ltd reads as consistent on its fundamental arc. Consistent — revenue, profit and EPS growth have stayed positive through the window, with ROCE at 20.0% and holding. The read is built from 8 quarters across 4 curves, on partial evidence.

Why it matters: steady curves with healthy returns are the compounding setup — the risk is the price, not the business.

Return readings here are annual, not quarterly — read as level and direction only; they can confirm the growth curves but never drive the stage on their own.

A partial read: at least one curve is short, or the returns curve is not the computed quarterly series — hold the stage word a little more loosely.

4-Factor Sector Score

62.7/100 — rank 2 of 2 in Auto Ancillaries - Head lamps lights · 79% evidence confidence

Uno Minda Ltd scores 62.7 out of 100 against the 2 companies it is compared with in Auto Ancillaries - Head lamps lights, ranking 2. Balanced evidence: keep at normal research priority and require another comparable period before raising conviction.

The four contributions add to the total exactly: 19.3 + 17.5 + 9.2 + 16.7 = 62.7. This is the SAME number shown on the sector comparison — it is computed once, for the whole peer set, and read here.

What would change it: The read weakens if profit growth turns negative or margin improvement reverses while sector-relative strength deteriorates.

Said versus delivered

What Uno Minda Ltd's management promised, set against what actually arrived — 4 tracked promises on the record. Read straight from the company’s own earnings calls. A promise that slipped stays on this page after it is met.

EV Powertrain Commissioning Delay · 18 May 2026. Management shifted the commissioning target for the high-voltage EV powertrain project from Q2 FY27, as stated in the Nov 2025 call, to the second half of FY27 in the latest May 2026 call. This represents a delay in a critical growth project without a detailed explanation of the causes for the postponement.

Alloy Wheel Market Outlook Reversal · 18 May 2026. In the Feb 2026 call, management maintained structural optimism regarding rising alloy wheel penetration across segments into the medium term. However, the latest May 2026 call acknowledges a moderation in penetration and admits that some programs switched back to steel wheels, marking a clear departure from the prior growth narrative.

Contradictory Aftermarket Sales Trajectory · 18 May 2026. During the Feb 2026 call, management stated they were very optimistic that export and aftermarket growth would continue in absolute terms every quarter. The latest May 2026 call reveals that aftermarket revenues for Q4 were 340 crore, which is a decline from the 374 crore reported in the February 2026 call, contradicting the earlier commitment to sequential improvement.

Capex Strategy Reversal · 5 February 2026. In November 2025, management emphasized strict capital discipline, explicitly stating they had removed projects from the expansion list to avoid idle capacity and would integrate remaining capacity at the Kharkhoda plant. However, in the February 2026 call, they reversed this stance by announcing a major new greenfield alloy wheel facility (likely in Western India) and admitted they had previously avoided this investment for three years but were now proceeding despite the prior focus on optimization. Earlier call (Nov 2025): “We have removed some of the projects from expansion project list... This is to ensure that we don”. Later call (Feb 2026): “The board has the [approved] setting up of green field wheel manufacturing facility... The project a capital expenditure of 6764 crore... The board decided and board took a call to go ahead with this project.”

Every quote above is taken word for word from the company’s own earnings calls.

Frequently asked questions