Sector Alpha

Track where the smart money flows in Indian equities

DashboardWeekly UpdateSector Deep DivesUploadPipelinePE CyclesBrainAboutHow We Research

Data updated weekly. Not financial advice.

sectoralpha · stock story
Forgings →
Home›Stocks›Pradeep Metals Ltd
PRADPMEPradeep Metals LtdForgings
₹470+79.3% 1y

Pradeep Metals Ltd (PRADPME) — share price & stock analysis

From losses in FY16 and FY17 to record profits — the comeback is real, the price knows it.

TURNAROUNDBeating NIFTY 500 for 19 weeks
MOMENTUMSTAGE 2 UPTRENDBEATING NIFTY 19W
TURNAROUNDMARGINS EXPANDINGWC STRETCHINGSALES MOMENTUM
DEEP CYCLICALEXPANSION
₹812 Cr
Market cap
26.8×
P/E
20.1%
ROE
By Sector Alpha Research · machine-compiled from Screener.in data · Updated 5 June 2026 · Sources: Screener.in company page, NSE quote · Not investment advice
The 30-second answer

Pradeep Metals Ltd (PRADPME) trades at ₹470 as of 5 June 2026, up 79% over the past year — beating NIFTY 500 for 19 weeks. The machine reads this as turnaround: from losses in FY16 and FY17 to record profits — the comeback is real, the price knows it. the price is in Stage 2 — advancing, 22 weeks in; the business cycle reads DEEP CYCLICAL / EXPANSION. Fundamentals-momentum score: 83/100 (mostly improving).

Data as of 5 June 2026 · every number traces to its Screener source column · not investment advice.

Key numbers
Market cap
₹812 Cr
P/E
26.8×
ROE
20.1%
Book value / share
₹95.1
Revenue (FY26)
₹338 Cr
Profit after tax (FY26)
₹30 Cr
Weinstein stage
Stage 2 (22 weeks)
Data as of
5 June 2026
MOMENTUM OF THE FUNDAMENTALS
83/100
MOSTLY IMPROVING
Levels: ROCE 21% — a high-quality engine · debt moderate (0.46× equity) · margins near the top of their band
SalesUp 5% YoY — 10 straight growth quarters
MarginsOPM 14.9% → 18.4% in a year
ProfitUp 43% YoY
Cash generationOperating cash ₹33.0 Cr → ₹32.0 Cr
Balance sheetD/E 0.52× → 0.46×
Committed ownersPromoters + funds hold 73.6% (a year ago: 73.5%)
DEEP CYCLICAL
Trough
Recovery
Expansion
Peak

Profits swing violently in this business — real losses in FY16 and FY17. That is what “deep cyclical” means: the same company looks brilliant at the top of its cycle and broken at the bottom.net_profit

Where the clock stands now: earnings sit at 100% of their historical range, margins are near the top of their band, and valuation history is thin. That reads as EXPANSION — the comfortable middle — but the records are already on the table; from here the bet is that they keep coming.net_profit

4 of the 6 things we track are currently moving the right way — nearly everything is pulling in the same direction.

Where the levels actually stand: ROCE 21% — a high-quality engine; debt moderate (0.46× equity); margins near the top of their band. Momentum says which way things are moving; these say where they are.

Read this number for what it is: it measures the DIRECTION of change, not the quality of the business. A mediocre business getting better scores high here; a great one having a soft quarter scores low. Profit, sales and margins count double.

WHERE THE PRICE IS IN ITS CYCLE

An uptrend that has held for 22 weeks

STAGE 2 · ADVANCING · 22 WEEKS

Every stock cycles through the same four seasons — a flat base (stage 1), an advance (2), a top (3), a decline (4). Right now this one is in Stage 2: advancing, 22 weeks in, confirmed.stage

The price sits above its rising 200-day average (₹322 today) and its strength against the index is still improving — trends like this persist more often than they reverse, which is why the system rides them instead of guessing the top.dma_200

Beating NIFTY 500 for 19 weeks — relative strength is the market’s live opinion, and right now it is on this stock’s side.rs_mansfield

What would end it: two Friday closes in a row below the 200-day line. That is the house exit rule — mechanical, no debates.dma_200

Weekly price with its 200-day and 50-day averages — stages shaded₹weinstein_stages
S2S4S20200400Price200-DMAStage 2 began · Feb 26Mar 16Aug 19Feb 23Jun 26
Data: Weekly price, moving averages and stage (sampled — full series in the embedded dataset)
PeriodPrice (₹)200-DMA (₹)50-DMA (₹)Stage
Mar 1653.257.954.84
May 1651.055.852.14
Jul 1644.552.446.94
Sep 1642.049.343.84
Nov 1647.848.546.94
Jan 1768.651.056.62
Mar 1765.855.261.92
May 1774.760.468.52
Jul 1764.063.067.62
Sep 1764.063.865.42
Dec 1797.268.377.92
Feb 1887.577.591.82
Apr 1896.584.496.52
Jun 1892.987.793.62
Aug 1885.285.883.54
Oct 1875.081.975.34
Dec 1882.580.677.54
Feb 1970.079.075.14
Apr 1965.075.870.24
Jun 1958.072.064.34
Aug 1957.868.159.24
Oct 1944.061.548.84
Dec 1943.255.443.04
Feb 2049.053.849.54
Apr 2033.249.140.24
Jul 2036.045.237.54
Sep 2038.042.037.04
Nov 2034.339.735.64
Jan 2162.142.147.34
Mar 2147.746.151.32
May 2141.243.641.54
Jul 2162.047.052.22
Sep 2180.357.073.02
Nov 2191.065.380.32
Jan 2212882.21112
Mar 2291.786.795.62
May 2296.189.695.22
Jul 2211492.198.82
Sep 221151001132
Dec 221621121362
Feb 231941291592
Apr 231731441702
Jun 231591531672
Aug 231621561642
Oct 231501571582
Dec 232081611724
Feb 242211812132
Apr 242491992282
Jun 242432152402
Aug 242892292562
Oct 242842532902
Dec 242602602762
Feb 252252622652
May 252252522394
Jul 253152552634
Sep 252292652682
Nov 252462512344
Jan 262722542604
Apr 263812913422
Jun 264703223912
THE LONG ARC

A business that went through the fire — losses in FY16 and FY17, records now

Over 12 years, sales went from ₹113 Cr to ₹338 Cr (about 10% a year), and profit from ₹6.0 Cr to ₹30.0 Cr.revenuenet_profit

The books show real losses in FY16 and FY17 (worst: ₹−3.0 Cr). Everything about today’s cheap-looking numbers must be read against that history — the recovery is what you are buying.net_profit

Revenue by year₹ Crannual_results
0200FY14FY19FY24FY26
Data: Revenue by year
PeriodRevenue (₹ Cr)
FY14113
FY15141
FY16143
FY17132
FY18162
FY19191
FY20195
FY21156
FY22221
FY23268
FY24277
FY25312
FY26338
Profit by year₹ Crannual_results
020.0FY14FY19FY24FY26
Data: Profit by year
PeriodProfit after tax (₹ Cr)
FY146
FY159
FY16-1
FY17-3
FY185
FY199
FY208
FY218
FY2220
FY2326
FY2422
FY2527
FY2630
OPM % by year%annual_results
7.510.012.515.017.5FY14FY19FY24FY26
Data: OPM % by year
PeriodOPM % (%)
FY1410.6
FY1512.8
FY167.7
FY178.3
FY1811.7
FY1914.7
FY2014.9
FY2116.0
FY2215.8
FY2317.2
FY2414.8
FY2515.1
FY2616.0
CHAPTER 1 · THE ENGINE

Sales have gone quiet — growth has stalled

Revenue — the money that comes in from customers, before any costs.

Mar 26 sales were ₹91.0 Cr, up 5% on the same quarter last year.revenue

That makes 10 quarters of growth in a row — this is a trend, not a blip.revenue

Quarterly sales₹ Crquarterly_results
050.0YoY %+22Jun 23Jun 24Jun 25Mar 26
Data: Quarterly sales
PeriodRevenue (₹ Cr)YoY growth (%)
Jun 2359.0–
Sep 2370.0–
Dec 2368.0–
Mar 2479.0–
Jun 2472.022.0
Sep 2474.05.7
Dec 2479.016.2
Mar 2587.010.1
Jun 2578.08.3
Sep 2586.016.2
Dec 2584.06.3
Mar 2691.04.6
CHAPTER 2 · THE TAKE

Margins are widening — 15% → 18% in a year

Margins — the share of every ₹100 of sales kept as profit. Gross (after raw materials), operating (after running costs), net (after everything).

Of every ₹100 of sales, the company keeps ₹18.4 as operating profit (a year ago it kept ₹14.9).opm_pct

The gross margin moved the same way (53% → 59%), so this is about input costs and pricing power — the raw-material equation improved.gpm_pctopm_pct

Three margins, quarterly%margin_trends
0.020.040.060.0GrossOperatingNetJun 23Jun 24Jun 25Mar 26
Data: Three margins, quarterly
PeriodGross (%)Operating (%)Net (%)
Jun 2351.89.93.4
Sep 2352.514.98.0
Dec 2355.417.510.1
Mar 2453.116.79.9
Jun 2454.515.19.8
Sep 2458.816.08.7
Dec 2452.114.58.4
Mar 2553.214.98.2
Jun 2553.813.27.2
Sep 2555.716.88.6
Dec 2558.114.98.4
Mar 2658.918.411.4
WATCH →Two consecutive quarters of margin decline would break this trend.
CHAPTER 3 · THE BOTTOM LINE

Profit exploded 43% — mostly from keeping more of each sale

PAT (profit after tax) — what is left for shareholders after every cost, interest and tax.

Mar 26 profit after tax was ₹10.0 Cr, up 43% year on year.net_profit

Quarterly profit after tax₹ Crquarterly_results
0510.0YoY %+250+43Jun 23Jun 24Jun 25Mar 26
Data: Quarterly profit after tax
PeriodPAT (₹ Cr)YoY growth (%)
Jun 232.0–
Sep 236.0–
Dec 237.0–
Mar 248.0–
Jun 247.0250.0
Sep 246.00.0
Dec 247.00.0
Mar 257.0-12.5
Jun 256.0-14.3
Sep 257.016.7
Dec 257.00.0
Mar 2610.042.9
Where the profit change came from (Mar 25 → Mar 26)₹ Cr
7+1+3+1−210PAT Mar 25More salesFattermarginsDepreciationEverythingelsePAT Mar 26

The single biggest driver was keeping more of each sale.

Data: Where the profit change came from (Mar 25 → Mar 26)
ComponentEffect (₹ Cr)
PAT Mar 257
More sales+1
Fatter margins+3
Depreciation+1
Everything else−2
PAT Mar 2610
CHAPTER 4 · THE ACID TEST

The profits are real — they turn into cash

Operating cash flow (CFO) — the cash that actually arrived, vs PAT, the profit accounting reports. Annual figures.

Over the last 5 profitable years, the business reported ₹125 Cr of profit and collected ₹146 Cr of operating cash — about 117% conversion.operating_cash_flownet_profit

One asterisk on that strength: suppliers are being paid 28 days later than a year ago (108 → 136 days). Cash flattered by stretching payables is real cash — but it is borrowed timing, not extra earning power.payable_days

Cash collected vs profit reported (annual)₹ Crcash_flow
020.040.0Operating cash flowProfit after taxFY14FY19FY24FY26
Data: Cash collected vs profit reported (annual)
PeriodOperating cash flow (₹ Cr)Profit after tax (₹ Cr)
FY148.06.0
FY150.09.0
FY1610.0-1.0
FY1712.0-3.0
FY1814.05.0
FY1919.09.0
FY2035.08.0
FY2125.08.0
FY2212.020.0
FY2337.026.0
FY2432.022.0
FY2533.027.0
FY2632.030.0
CHAPTER 5 · THE PIPELINE

The cash cycle is stretching — more money stuck in the pipeline

Working capital — days of sales locked up in inventory and unpaid bills. Screener reports this yearly, so this chart is annual.

One rupee now takes about 173 days to go out the door as materials and come back as collected cash — up from 150 days the year before.cash_conversion_cycle

The biggest mover: inventory sitting longer in the warehouse (169 → 207 days).inventory_days

Days of cash locked up (annual)daysratios
50100150200250Customers owe (debtor days)Stock on shelf (inventory days)We owe suppliers (payable days)FY14FY19FY24FY26
Data: Days of cash locked up (annual)
PeriodCustomers owe (debtor days) (days)Stock on shelf (inventory days) (days)We owe suppliers (payable days) (days)
FY1493.023665.0
FY15113243150
FY1685.022069.0
FY17121230118
FY1895.021589.0
FY1986.018979.0
FY2077.017251.0
FY2198.0213108
FY2284.018587.0
FY2374.017781.0
FY2487.0174107
FY2590.0169108
FY26102207136
CHAPTER 6 · THE BUILD

The asset base keeps compounding — this company builds

Capex — money spent on plants, machines and buildings. Gross block is what exists; CWIP (capital work-in-progress) is what is being built. Annual.

The productive asset base has gone from ₹20.0 Cr (FY14) to ₹106 Cr, with another ₹4.0 Cr of capacity under construction right now.fixed_assetscwip

The build is self-funded: the last 3 years' investing outflow (₹60.0 Cr) fits inside the operating cash the business generated (₹97.0 Cr).investing_cash_flowoperating_cash_flow

Assets in place vs under construction (annual)₹ Crbalance_sheet
050.0100Fixed assetsUnder construction (CWIP)FY14FY19FY24FY26
Data: Assets in place vs under construction (annual)
PeriodFixed assets (₹ Cr)Under construction (CWIP) (₹ Cr)
FY1420.02.0
FY1547.07.0
FY1659.03.0
FY1762.07.0
FY1862.03.0
FY1961.011.0
FY2068.02.0
FY2159.01.0
FY2270.02.0
FY2372.04.0
FY2486.01.0
FY251000.0
FY261064.0
CHAPTER 7 · SURVIVAL

Debt is present but comfortable

Debt-to-equity — borrowings against shareholders’ money. Computed from the balance sheet. Annual.

For every ₹100 shareholders have put in (and left in), the company has borrowed ₹46 — total borrowings have grown from ₹46.0 Cr to ₹75.0 Cr over the window.borrowings

Total borrowings (annual)₹ Crbalance_sheet
050.0100FY14FY19FY24FY26
Data: Total borrowings (annual)
PeriodBorrowings (₹ Cr)
FY1446.0
FY1572.0
FY1687.0
FY1793.0
FY1893.0
FY1997.0
FY2087.0
FY2165.0
FY2281.0
FY2373.0
FY2473.0
FY2571.0
FY2675.0
Debt vs shareholders’ money (annual)xbalance_sheet
012FY14FY19FY24FY26
Data: Debt vs shareholders’ money (annual)
PeriodDebt ÷ equity (x)
FY141.4
FY151.9
FY162.4
FY172.5
FY182.4
FY192.1
FY201.8
FY211.1
FY221.1
FY230.8
FY240.6
FY250.5
FY260.5
CHAPTER 8 · THE ENGINE ROOM

Every ₹100 kept in the business earns ₹21 — a high-quality engine

ROCE — profit earned per ₹100 of capital used. ROE — the same, per ₹100 of shareholders’ money alone. Annual.

Return on capital employed is 21.0% (a year ago: 21.0%). This is the single best test of business quality: what the company earns on the money it keeps.roce_pct

Returns on capital (annual)%ratios
5.010.015.020.025.0ROCEFY15FY19FY23FY26
Data: Returns on capital (annual)
PeriodROCE (%)
FY1517.0
FY167.0
FY176.0
FY1812.0
FY1916.0
FY2017.0
FY2115.0
FY2223.0
FY2325.0
FY2420.0
FY2521.0
FY2621.0
CHAPTER 9 · WHO OWNS IT

The owners aren’t moving

Shareholding — who owns the company: founders (promoters), foreign funds (FII), domestic funds (DII).

Promoters hold 73.5%, essentially unchanged. Foreign funds own null%, domestic funds 0.1%.promoters_pctfiis_pctdiis_pct

Who holds the shares, quarterly%shareholding
Promoters73.5% → 73.5% · flat
72.573.073.574.0Jun 23Jun 24Jun 25Mar 26
Domestic funds0.0% → 0.1% · flat
0.00.00.10.1Jun 23Jun 24Jun 25Mar 26
Data: Who holds the shares, quarterly
PeriodPromoters (%)Domestic funds (%)
Jun 2373.50.0
Sep 2373.50.0
Dec 2373.50.0
Mar 2473.50.0
Jun 2473.50.0
Sep 2473.50.0
Dec 2473.50.0
Mar 2573.50.0
Jun 2573.50.0
Sep 2573.50.0
Dec 2573.50.0
Mar 2673.50.1
WHAT IS NOT HAPPENING
  • Promoters are not selling. Their stake has moved 0.1 points or less in 8 quarters — it sits at 73.5%.promoters_pct
  • Sales are NOT driving the profit move — revenue grew just 4.6% while profit moved much more. This is a margin-and-recovery story, which has a shorter runway than a volume story.revenuenet_profit
THE VERDICT

The numbers earn a deeper study — and watch the one thing that matters

The numbers lean positive, and the price is roughly fair to the delivery so far.

Best thing in the data: profit rising (₹7.0 Cr → ₹10.0 Cr).net_profit

Biggest worry: free cash flow falling (₹14.0 Cr → ₹9.0 Cr).operating_cash_flow

One dissent worth hearing: our valuation lens reads negative — “its fair-value math says the price sits about 51% above what the numbers justify”. When a lens disagrees with the committee, it is usually pointing at the thing that breaks first.

The machine committee — 7 independent readsSTUDY DEEPER · 82%
Earnings patternPOSITIVE85% · w21
Valuation cyclePOSITIVE48% · w19
CatalystsNEUTRAL40% · w14
Quality & safetyPOSITIVE85% · w14
TechnicalsPOSITIVE68% · w12
ValuationNEGATIVE85% · w10
Growth at a pricePOSITIVE52% · w10
One model disagrees — the Valuation lens reads this stock as NEGATIVE (85% confidence): “its fair-value math says the price sits about 51% above what the numbers justify”
7-model research readSTUDY DEEPER · 82% confidence
WHAT WOULD CHANGE THIS VIEWTwo quarters of margins reversing would kill this story.

Machine-written research from Screener data — every number traces to its source column. Sector Alpha is not a SEBI-registered investment adviser; nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell. Not investment advice.

More Forgings stocks
Pradeep Metals LtdAll Forgings stocks →
Frequently asked questions

Straight answers from the data

What does Pradeep Metals Ltd do?

Incorporated in 1982, Pradeep Metals Ltd manufactures and sells forged and machined components[1]. It is listed in the Forgings sector with a market capitalisation of ₹812 Cr.

What is Pradeep Metals Ltd's share price?

As of 5 June 2026, Pradeep Metals Ltd trades at ₹470, up 79% over the past year, with a market capitalisation of ₹812 Cr. Beating NIFTY 500 for 19 weeks. Prices are weekly closes from Screener data; this page refreshes with each weekly update.

What is Pradeep Metals Ltd's share price target?

Sector Alpha does not publish broker-style price targets. Our discounted-cash-flow model estimates Pradeep Metals Ltd's intrinsic value at ₹302 per share under base assumptions (bear ₹208, bull ₹363), against the current price of ₹470 — a 36% premium to model value. The current price already implies roughly 16% annual earnings growth. These are model estimates, not forecasts — treat them as one input alongside the valuation history below, not as a target.

What did Pradeep Metals Ltd report in its latest quarterly results?

In its most recent reported quarter (Q4 FY26, quarter ended March 2026): Mar 26 sales were ₹91.0 Cr, up 5% on the same quarter last year. Mar 26 profit after tax was ₹10.0 Cr, up 43% year on year. Figures are from Screener-scraped quarterly filings; the page updates when the next quarter is filed.

Is Pradeep Metals Ltd growing?

Sales have gone quiet — growth has stalled. Mar 26 sales were ₹91.0 Cr, up 5% on the same quarter last year.

Are Pradeep Metals Ltd's profits growing?

Profit exploded 43% — mostly from keeping more of each sale. Mar 26 profit after tax was ₹10.0 Cr, up 43% year on year.

What are Pradeep Metals Ltd's operating margins?

Margins are widening — 15% → 18% in a year. In the most recent quarter, of every ₹100 of sales, the company keeps ₹18.4 as operating profit (a year ago it kept ₹14.9).

What is Pradeep Metals Ltd's long-term growth record?

Revenue grew from ₹113 Cr in FY14 to ₹338 Cr in FY26 — a 9.6% compound annual growth rate over 12 years. Profit after tax compounded at 14.4% over the same period (₹6 Cr → ₹30 Cr).

Is Pradeep Metals Ltd stock in an uptrend?

An uptrend that has held for 22 weeks. Pradeep Metals Ltd is in Stage 2 — advancing, 22 weeks in (confirmed). Stages follow Stan Weinstein's four-phase read of weekly price against the 200-day average: basing (1), advancing (2), topping (3), declining (4).

Why is Pradeep Metals Ltd stock rising?

The price is up 79% over the past year, in a confirmed Stage 2 uptrend (22 weeks), and has beaten NIFTY 500 for 19 weeks.

Is Pradeep Metals Ltd beating the NIFTY 500?

Yes — beating NIFTY 500 for 19 weeks, as of 5 June 2026. Relative strength is measured weekly against the NIFTY 500 (Mansfield RS): a positive reading means the stock has outperformed the index over the trailing window, week after week.

Where is Pradeep Metals Ltd in its business cycle?

The data reads Pradeep Metals Ltd as a deep cyclical business currently in its expansion phase — earnings at an all-time high for this company. Profits swing violently in this business — real losses in FY16 and FY17. That is what “deep cyclical” means: the same company looks brilliant at the top of its cycle and broken at the bottom.

Does Pradeep Metals Ltd have too much debt?

Debt is present but comfortable. For every ₹100 shareholders have put in (and left in), the company has borrowed ₹46 — total borrowings have grown from ₹46.0 Cr to ₹75.0 Cr over the window.

What is the bull case for Pradeep Metals Ltd?

From losses in FY16 and FY17 to record profits — the comeback is real, the price knows it. Best thing in the data: profit rising (₹7.0 Cr → ₹10.0 Cr). Sales have gone quiet — growth has stalled.

What is the bear case for Pradeep Metals Ltd — what could break the story?

Biggest worry: free cash flow falling (₹14.0 Cr → ₹9.0 Cr). Two quarters of margins reversing would kill this story. The nearest-term thing to watch: two consecutive quarters of margin decline would break this trend. This falsification condition is stated up front so the thesis can be checked against incoming quarters, not defended after the fact.

Is Pradeep Metals Ltd a stock worth studying right now?

Sector Alpha does not publish buy or sell recommendations — this is a research read, not advice. What the data says: the numbers earn a deeper study — and watch the one thing that matters. The numbers lean positive, and the price is roughly fair to the delivery so far. Across the 7-model scorecard the composite research signal is study deeper at 82% confidence. This is machine-written research compiled from Screener data — every number traces to its source — and it is not investment advice. Do your own diligence.

Generated from Screener data · 11 sources · why_traces/1.0 + story/1.2
details
generated 2026-07-03 11:21 · 3 material moves detected
sources: screener_company_info, screener_quarterly_results, screener_annual_results, screener_valuation_history, screener_shareholding, screener_cash_flow, screener_ratios, screener_balance_sheet, screener_margin_trends, weinstein_stages, agent_scores