Mcleod Russel India Ltd

Price story Before the numbers, the tape. A stock price moves through four repeating seasons: a flat base (stage 1), an advance (2), a top (3), a decline (4). Where the price sits in that cycle frames everything below.

Mcleod Russel India Ltd trades at ₹46.3, in a confirmed uptrend and 15 weeks into that stage. That is −9.7% against its own 200-day average. It sits at 31% of a 52-week range of ₹32 to ₹78. On relative strength it is currently behind the NIFTY 500 on a trailing-13-week view (8 weeks and counting).

Today the stock is in a confirmed uptrend — week 15 of stage 2, confirmed. At ₹46.3 it trades −9.7% versus its 200-day average and sits at 31% of its 52-week range (₹32–₹78).

Against the market, two honest reads. Cumulative: over the last 10.3 years the stock moved −75% while the NIFTY 500 moved +256% — behind the index over the full window. Recent form: on a trailing-13-week view the stock is currently behind (8 weeks and counting; last ahead the week of 2026-06-25) — the ribbon below is that same metric, week by week.

What would end the trend, mechanically: two Friday closes in a row below the 200-day line. That is the exit rule — no debates.

Valuation P/E is the price of ₹1 of annual profit: how many rupees the market pays for each rupee the company earns in a year.

Mcleod Russel India Ltd trades at 9.1× P/E, near the bottom of its own range — cheaper only 5% of the time. Its long-run median P/E is 36.2×, measured across 10.3 years of weekly readings. This places the multiple against the stock’s own record, and says nothing about what the business is worth.

Today's P/E of 9.1× is near the bottom of its own range — cheaper only 5% of the time, against a long-run median of 36.2× measured over 10.3 years of weekly readings. This is a comparison against the stock's own history — not a claim about what it is worth.

The price move, decomposed: over 10y, of the −12.7%/yr price move, ~+6.5%/yr came from earnings growth and ~−19.2 pp from the multiple (compressing). The split is the honest approximate (price return minus earnings growth); it makes the rally itself visible instead of hiding it behind the percentile.

Put together: the multiple is low against its own past, so the story rests on the earnings line underneath it, not the multiple.

Stage: No read Every business sits somewhere on a fundamental arc, and this page names the spot before anything else. The last twelve quarters of revenue, profit and EPS growth — plus the return the business earns on its capital — are read as curves: Deteriorating (the curves are falling), Turning around (a trough has just formed and the last few quarters lift off it), Improving (the climb off the trough is sustained), Consistent (steadily positive with healthy returns), Topping out (still high but decelerating from the peak). When the curves genuinely disagree the read is Mixed; too little history is No read. CAGR (compound annual growth rate) is the smooth yearly pace that turns the starting value into the latest one — the fairest way to compare growth across different time spans. Read the columns together: if the 1-year number towers over the 10-year, recent growth is running hotter than the long-run trend. A dash means that window is not held, or the base year was a loss (where a growth rate is not meaningful).

Mcleod Russel India Ltd reads as no read on its fundamental arc. Under eight usable quarters on the growth trio — not enough history for an honest trajectory read. The read is built from 8 quarters across 1 curve, on partial evidence.

Why it matters: with too little history, an honest page says so instead of guessing a trajectory.

The return-on-capital curve is not shown — net worth is negative, so a return on capital is not a meaningful number in any basis. This is a distressed balance sheet, and the stage is read from the growth curves alone.

One or more growth curves carry a base-effect spike — a large year-on-year move off a near-zero or loss-making comparable quarter. Those spikes are capped before the classifier reads the trajectory, and shown pinned on the chart, so a single distorted quarter does not drive the stage call.

Fewer than eight usable quarters on the growth curves — this page will not guess a trajectory from a stub of history.

4-Factor Sector Score

34.9/100 — rank 1 of 1 in Tea · 76% evidence confidence

Mcleod Russel India Ltd scores 34.9 out of 100 against the 1 companies it is compared with in Tea, ranking 1. Balanced evidence: keep at normal research priority and require another comparable period before raising conviction.

The four contributions add to the total exactly: 11.8 + 4 + 11.6 + 7.5 = 34.9. This is the SAME number shown on the sector comparison — it is computed once, for the whole peer set, and read here.

What would change it: The read weakens if profit growth turns negative or margin improvement reverses while sector-relative strength deteriorates.

Revenue Revenue is the top line: everything the company billed its customers in the period.

Mcleod Russel India Ltd reported ₹261 Cr of revenue in the Jun 26 quarter, +20.8% year on year. Over 10 years it has compounded at −5.0% a year. The last full year, FY26, came in at ₹1,154 Cr. The last four reported quarters add to ₹1,199 Cr.

FY26 revenue came in at ₹1,154 Cr (−2.6% on the year), capping 10 years at −5.0% compound. The latest quarter (Jun 26) printed ₹261 Cr, +20.8% year on year.

Pace check: the last four quarters averaged −0.1% growth against the decade's −5.0% — the current year is running faster than its own long-run rate.

Acceleration check: trailing-twelve-month revenue grew −0.5% over the last 4 quarters against +4.1%/yr over the last 8 — rolling over.

Operating margin Operating margin is what is left of every ₹100 of sales after running the business, before interest and tax. It is the cleanest read on pricing power and cost control.

Mcleod Russel India Ltd's operating margin is 11.0% in the Jun 26 quarter, +7.7 percentage points against the same quarter a year ago. Across 13 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged −10.0% to 20.0%. The current quarter sits inside that band.

The latest quarter's operating margin is 11.0%, +7.7 pp against the same quarter a year ago. Across 13 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged −10.0%–20.0%.

Why the margin moved: operating margin went +7.8 pp year on year while gross margin went +8.7 pp — the gain came mostly from the gross line: input costs and pricing.

Net profit Net profit is what survives every cost, interest and tax — the number EPS, dividends and book value all grow from.

Mcleod Russel India Ltd posted a net loss of ₹13.0 Cr in the Jun 26 quarter. The full FY26 year was a loss of ₹124 Cr. That loss is 5.0% of the quarter's revenue. The same quarter a year earlier lost ₹43.0 Cr. 9 of the last 12 reported quarters were loss-making.

Jun 26 profit was ₹−13.0 Cr, null year on year. On the full year, FY26 printed ₹−124 Cr (null).

Cash flow — the router The P&L says what was earned; the cash-flow statement says what actually arrived. Operating cash flow (CFO) against profit is the cleanest lie detector in the accounts.

Over the last 3 fiscal years 190% of Mcleod Russel India Ltd's reported profit arrived as operating cash — the cash follows the profit. In FY26 that was ₹53.0 Cr of operating cash against ₹−124 Cr of profit. After ₹27.0 Cr of capital spending, ₹26.0 Cr was left as free cash.

FY26: operating cash of ₹53.0 Cr against reported profit of ₹−124 Cr, leaving free cash of ₹26.0 Cr after ₹27.0 Cr of capital spending. Across the last 3 fiscal years the conversion rate is 190% of profit.

Cash-flow readings here are annual — that is the resolution our series carries, so this section moves once a year.

Why conversion sits at 190%: the cash cycle tightened 32 days between FY21 and FY26 — cash that used to wait in the cycle now reaches the bank sooner.

Router verdict: no single sink dominates — the next section checks both the working-capital cycle and the capital spending.

Where the cash goes Working capital is the cash tied up between paying suppliers and getting paid: debtor days (customers owe), inventory days (stock waits), and the cash conversion cycle (the whole loop, in days of sales).

Mcleod Russel India Ltd's cash conversion cycle runs 136 days in FY26, down from 168 days in FY21. Capital spending ran ₹22.0 Cr over the last 3 years. At FY26 sales of ₹1,154 Cr each day of that cycle holds about ₹3.2 Cr, so roughly ₹430 Cr sits inside the business at any moment.

FY26: debtors at 12 days, inventory at 718 days — roughly 23.6 months of stock waiting to sell; that is where the cash sits while it waits — for a full cycle of 136 days, tighter than FY21's 168.

The full loop: cash goes out to suppliers and production on day 0; stock waits 718 days to sell; customers pay about 12 days after that; and suppliers themselves are paid at 594 days — netting out to the 136-day cycle.

In money terms: at FY26 sales of ₹1,154 Cr, each day of the cycle holds about ₹3.2 Cr — so the 136-day loop keeps roughly ₹430 Cr sitting inside the business at any moment.

On the investment side: capital spending of ₹22.0 Cr over the last 3 fiscal years against ₹188 Cr of depreciation — spending at or below maintenance level. Capital work-in-progress stands at ₹38.0 Cr (FY26) — capacity paid for but not yet earning.

The synthesis: neither the cycle nor the build-out is hoarding the cash — the machine is reasonably clean.

Return on capital Return on capital employed (ROCE) is the profit the whole business earns on all the money in it — equity and debt together. It is the single best test of whether growth creates value or just size.

Mcleod Russel India Ltd earns a ROCE of −5% in FY26. That is up from a trough of −7% in FY24. Return on invested capital clears the cost of that capital by −18.0 percentage points, so growth here is not yet paying for the capital it uses. The wiring behind it is −10.7% net margin on 0.49× asset turns.

FY26 ROCE is −5%, recovered from a FY24 trough of −7% — the full ladder below shows the fall and the climb, undoctored.

🚨 Why the return is what it is — the wiring (FY26): −10.7% net margin × 0.49× asset turns × −46.14× balance-sheet leverage ≈ 241.9% on equity. Margin does its share; leverage is modest — this is an earned return, not a borrowed one.

The capstone test — ROIC − WACC: −6.0% − 12.0% = a −18.0 pp spread. The 12.0% is a standing assumption for the cost of capital in India, not a per-stock estimate — read the sign and the size of the spread, not the decimals. Negative — growth at these returns destroys value until the returns recover.

Debt Debt-to-equity says how much of the business is funded by borrowings; interest cover says how many times operating profit pays the interest bill. Low and high, respectively, is the safe corner.

Mcleod Russel India Ltd's net worth is negative — it owes more than it owns — so a debt-to-equity ratio is not meaningful here. Operating profit covers the interest bill −0×. Over 5 years borrowings went from ₹2,261 Cr to ₹1,495 Cr. Capital spending ran ₹22.0 Cr across the last 3 of those years.

FY26: borrowings of ₹1,495 Cr against equity of ₹−51.0 Cr — net worth is NEGATIVE: the company owes more than it owns, so a debt-to-equity ratio is not meaningful (it just goes negative). This is a balance sheet under water. Operating profit covers the interest bill −0×. Over 5 years borrowings went from ₹2,261 Cr to ₹1,495 Cr while capital spending ran ₹22.0 Cr in just the last 3 — the build-out is being paid for out of cash, not debt.

Ownership Who owns the stock, quarter by quarter: promoters (the controlling owners), foreign and domestic institutions, and the public. Steady accumulation by people close to the numbers is a signal; a quiet register is also an answer.

No holder of Mcleod Russel India Ltd moved a full percentage point over the last two years — the register is quiet. Foreign institutions moved −0.1 points over the same window, to 1.5%. The register is read on the four disclosed classes only; nothing is inferred between filings.

The register over the last two years — Domestic institutions: −0.8 points over 8 quarters to 0.5%; Foreign institutions: −0.1 points over 8 quarters to 1.5%; Promoters: +0.0 points over 8 quarters to 6.3%. Note the structure: promoters hold under 20% — this is a widely-held company where institutions, not a family, set the direction.

Safety line The Z-score estimates how far a company sits from balance-sheet distress — above roughly 3 is safe, below roughly 1.8 is the danger zone. It was built for manufacturers, so it is not applied to banks and lenders.

Mcleod Russel India Ltd: the Z-score is not available for this stock, so we say so rather than invent one. It is a distance-to-distress estimate from the balance sheet, not a forecast of failure. The debt, cash-flow and return sections above carry the balance-sheet evidence this page does hold, and each of them states its own reporting date.

The safety line in one sentence: the Z-score is not available for this stock, so we say so rather than invent one.

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