Confidence Petroleum India Ltd

Price story Before the numbers, the tape. A stock price moves through four repeating seasons: a flat base (stage 1), an advance (2), a top (3), a decline (4). Where the price sits in that cycle frames everything below.

Confidence Petroleum India Ltd trades at ₹72.0, in a confirmed uptrend and 15 weeks into that stage. That is +22.6% against its own 200-day average. It sits at 82% of a 52-week range of ₹30 to ₹81. On relative strength it is currently behind the NIFTY 500 on a trailing-13-week view (1 week and counting).

Today the stock is in a confirmed uptrend — week 15 of stage 2, confirmed. At ₹72.0 it trades +22.6% versus its 200-day average and sits at 82% of its 52-week range (₹30–₹81).

Against the market, two honest reads. Cumulative: over the last 10.4 years the stock moved +1,289% while the NIFTY 500 moved +278% — ahead of the index over the full window. Recent form: on a trailing-13-week view the stock is currently behind (1 week and counting; last ahead the week of 2026-08-07) — the ribbon below is that same metric, week by week.

What would end the trend, mechanically: two Friday closes in a row below the 200-day line. That is the exit rule — no debates.

Story check

Confidence Petroleum India Ltd's story is not scored yet against the markers our research file set on 17 May 2026. Where it sits in its own cycle: CYCLE_BOTTOM.

Our read, 17 May 2026. Volume-led revenue tripling driven by LPG bulk imports, but PAT is contracting as thin margins compress further under the LPG commodity price cycle.

From the numbers. PE at 32nd percentile of 10-year range with GOLDEN_SETUP EPS configuration (CYCLE_BOTTOM + QoQ IMPROVING). FII is selling (FII share 2.04% Sep 2024 → 0.97% Sep 2025). Cycle history shows 3 complete cycles with peak PE…

From the price. Price stage 2, week 15 — above its 200-day line, relative strength falling.

From the research. Volume-led revenue tripling driven by LPG bulk imports, but PAT is contracting as thin margins compress further under the LPG commodity price cycle.

🚨 Where they disagree. PE at 32nd percentile of 10-year range with GOLDEN_SETUP EPS configuration (CYCLE_BOTTOM + QoQ IMPROVING). FII is selling (FII share 2.04% Sep 2024 → 0.97% Sep 2025). Cycle history shows 3 complete cycles with peak PE at 99.2x (Mar 2016) and trough at 10.6x (Mar 2020). Current cycle started from trough of 19.4 (Jun 2022), peaked at 30.7 (Sep 2024), now correcting. Entry at sub-median PE is reasonable, but EPS quality needs to improve before the next expansion phase delivers.

What is proven. Volume-led revenue tripling driven by LPG bulk imports, but PAT is contracting as thin margins compress further under the LPG commodity price cycle.

What is not proven yet. OPM fell from 18% (Mar 2024) to 6% (Dec 2025). At 6% OPM and ₹25 Cr/qtr interest, PAT per ₹1,394 Cr revenue is only ₹21 Cr — any further LPG input cost spike wipes PAT.

The test written in advance. Sustained OPM compression — bulk LPG trading margin collapse — Sustained OPM compression — bulk LPG trading margin collapse by the next result.

The test written in advance. Regulatory / Governance — IT Search (Oct 2025) + GST Notice (₹233 Cr) — Regulatory / Governance — IT Search (Oct 2025) + GST Notice (₹233 Cr) by the next result.

The test written in advance. Debt-funded growth with sub-cost-of-capital returns — Debt-funded growth with sub-cost-of-capital returns Q4 FY26 and Q1 FY27 ROCE trend; if debt continues growing without ROCE improvement, thesis is invalidated by the next result.

Lever 14 · A bigger market to sell into — BUILDING. India's commercial LPG market is shifting from PSU-only to private-player participation; Confidence is exploiting this as India's largest private bulk importer. What proves it keeps working: TAM Expansion via Commercial LPG Consumption Shift. It stops working if Monthly OPM trend; if OPM stays below 7% for 2 consecutive quarters, the revenue growth story has no bottom-line read-through.

Lever 7 · Consolidation — BUILDING. 295 Auto LPG Dispensing Stations nationally, 50+ CNG stations in Bengaluru (target 100 via GAIL Gas JV) — own-brand infrastructure that earns higher margins than bulk trading. What proves it keeps working: Geographic Expansion — CNG Station Rollout + ALDS Network. It stops working if Monthly OPM trend; if OPM stays below 7% for 2 consecutive quarters, the revenue growth story has no bottom-line read-through.

Lever 12 · New product launch — BUILDING. New Type-4 composite cylinder facility in Nagpur targets CNG vehicle OEMs and the emerging hydrogen storage market — a higher-ASP, higher-margin product vs standard LPG cylinders. What proves it keeps working: Product Mix Shift — High-Pressure Composite Cylinders (Type-4 CNG/Hydrogen). It stops working if Monthly OPM trend; if OPM stays below 7% for 2 consecutive quarters, the revenue growth story has no bottom-line read-through.

Sources: our stock research file (17 May 2026) · quarterly results through Jun 26. The story check is re-scored every results season; the record below never changes.

Revenue Revenue is the top line: everything the company billed its customers in the period.

Confidence Petroleum India Ltd reported ₹2,409 Cr of revenue in the Jun 26 quarter, +116.6% year on year. That is the 8th straight quarter of year-on-year growth. Over 10 years it has compounded at 29.5% a year. The last full year, FY26, came in at ₹4,705 Cr. The last four reported quarters add to ₹6,002 Cr.

Why this happened. The shift from domestic to commercial and industrial LPG demand is the structural driver. Commercial cylinder prices rose ₹993/cylinder on May 1 2026 (new price ₹3,071.50 in Delhi), reflecting demand strength. India imports 40-50% of LPG demand, and Confidence entered bulk LPG import from Middle East markets in May 2022. Revenue from the LPG Division surged from ₹56,946 lakhs in Q3 FY25 to ₹1,32,456 lakhs in Q3 FY26 — a 133% YoY jump. The problem: this is commodity trading with minimal value addition, hence the PAT compression even as revenue doubles.

FY26 revenue came in at ₹4,705 Cr (+49.6% on the year), capping 10 years at 29.5% compound. The latest quarter (Jun 26) printed ₹2,409 Cr, +116.6% year on year — the 8th consecutive quarter of year-over-year growth.

Pace check: the last four quarters averaged +70.0% growth against the decade's 29.5% — the current year is running faster than its own long-run rate.

Acceleration check: trailing-twelve-month revenue grew +72.5% over the last 4 quarters against +51.9%/yr over the last 8 — accelerating; TTM profit +45.3% vs +25.9%/yr — accelerating.

Operating margin Operating margin is what is left of every ₹100 of sales after running the business, before interest and tax. It is the cleanest read on pricing power and cost control.

Confidence Petroleum India Ltd's operating margin is 6.0% in the Jun 26 quarter, −1.0 percentage points against the same quarter a year ago. Across 13 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged 7.0% to 14.0%. The current quarter is running below every full year in that window.

The latest quarter's operating margin is 6.0%, −1.0 pp against the same quarter a year ago. Across 13 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged 7.0%–14.0%.

🚨 Why the margin moved: operating margin went −1.5 pp year on year while gross margin went −4.7 pp — the loss came mostly from the gross line: input costs and pricing.

Net profit Net profit is what survives every cost, interest and tax — the number EPS, dividends and book value all grow from.

Confidence Petroleum India Ltd earned ₹63.0 Cr of net profit in the Jun 26 quarter, +215.0% year on year. It is the 2nd consecutive quarter of growth. Full-year FY26 profit was ₹97.0 Cr. The 10-year compound rate is 58.0%. That is 2.6% of the quarter's revenue. The same quarter a year earlier earned ₹20.0 Cr.

Jun 26 profit was ₹63.0 Cr, +215.0% year on year — the 2nd consecutive quarter of growth. On the full year, FY26 printed ₹97.0 Cr (+6.6%), and the 10-year compound rate is 58.0%.

Why profit moved: revenue contributed +116.6% and the margin −1.0 pp — the quarter was revenue-led, with the margin roughly flat.

Pace comparison, last four quarters: profit +53.1% vs revenue +70.0%. Profit is growing slower than sales — costs are eating the growth before it reaches the bottom line.

Cash flow — the router The P&L says what was earned; the cash-flow statement says what actually arrived. Operating cash flow (CFO) against profit is the cleanest lie detector in the accounts.

Over the last 3 fiscal years 230% of Confidence Petroleum India Ltd's reported profit arrived as operating cash — the cash follows the profit. In FY26 that was ₹400 Cr of operating cash against ₹97.0 Cr of profit. After ₹180 Cr of capital spending, ₹220 Cr was left as free cash.

FY26: operating cash of ₹400 Cr against reported profit of ₹97.0 Cr, leaving free cash of ₹220 Cr after ₹180 Cr of capital spending. Across the last 3 fiscal years the conversion rate is 230% of profit.

Cash-flow readings here are annual — that is the resolution our series carries, so this section moves once a year.

Why conversion sits at 230%: the cash cycle tightened 42 days between FY21 and FY26 — cash that used to wait in the cycle now reaches the bank sooner.

Router verdict: the bigger cash user is investment — capital spending ran 1.8× depreciation over three years, so the next section's job is to check what that build-out is buying.

Where the cash goes Working capital is the cash tied up between paying suppliers and getting paid: debtor days (customers owe), inventory days (stock waits), and the cash conversion cycle (the whole loop, in days of sales).

Confidence Petroleum India Ltd's cash conversion cycle runs 26 days in FY26, down from 68 days in FY21. Capital spending ran ₹901 Cr over the last 3 years. At FY26 sales of ₹4,705 Cr each day of that cycle holds about ₹12.9 Cr, so roughly ₹335 Cr sits inside the business at any moment.

FY26: debtors at 17 days, inventory at 19 days — roughly 0.6 months of stock waiting to sell; that is where the cash sits while it waits — for a full cycle of 26 days, tighter than FY21's 68.

The full loop: cash goes out to suppliers and production on day 0; stock waits 19 days to sell; customers pay about 17 days after that; and suppliers themselves are paid at 10 days — netting out to the 26-day cycle.

In money terms: at FY26 sales of ₹4,705 Cr, each day of the cycle holds about ₹12.9 Cr — so the 26-day loop keeps roughly ₹335 Cr sitting inside the business at any moment.

On the investment side: capital spending of ₹901 Cr over the last 3 fiscal years against ₹506 Cr of depreciation — the company is building well ahead of wear-and-tear. Capital work-in-progress stands at ₹28.0 Cr (FY26) — capacity paid for but not yet earning.

The synthesis: the cash is going into capacity, not disappearing into the cycle — the question becomes whether the new capacity earns.

Return on capital Return on capital employed (ROCE) is the profit the whole business earns on all the money in it — equity and debt together. It is the single best test of whether growth creates value or just size.

Confidence Petroleum India Ltd earns a ROCE of 9% in FY26. That is up from a trough of 2% in FY15. Return on invested capital clears the cost of that capital by −3.3 percentage points, so growth here is not yet paying for the capital it uses. The wiring behind it is 2.1% net margin on 1.72× asset turns.

FY26 ROCE is 9%, recovered from a FY15 trough of 2% — the full ladder below shows the fall and the climb, undoctored.

🚨 Why the return is what it is — the wiring (FY26): 2.1% net margin × 1.72× asset turns × 1.93× balance-sheet leverage ≈ 7.0% on equity. Margin does its share; leverage is a meaningful part of the equation.

The capstone test — ROIC − WACC: 8.7% − 12.0% = a −3.3 pp spread. The 12.0% is a standing assumption for the cost of capital in India, not a per-stock estimate — read the sign and the size of the spread, not the decimals. Negative — growth at these returns destroys value until the returns recover.

Debt Debt-to-equity says how much of the business is funded by borrowings. Low is the safe corner; the trend matters as much as the level.

Confidence Petroleum India Ltd carries total debt of ₹761 Cr against shareholder equity of ₹1,541 Cr as of Mar 26, a debt-to-equity of 0.49. On the annual view that ratio went from 0.13 in FY22 to 0.49 in FY26. Read the returns elsewhere on this page with that leverage in mind.

Mar 26: total debt of ₹761 Cr against shareholder equity of ₹1,541 Cr — a debt-to-equity of 0.49. On the annual view, debt-to-equity went from 0.13 (FY22) to 0.49 (FY26). Read the returns on this page with that leverage in mind.

Ownership Who owns the stock, quarter by quarter: promoters (the controlling owners), foreign and domestic institutions, and the public. Steady accumulation by people close to the numbers is a signal; a quiet register is also an answer.

Promoters added 1.5 points of Confidence Petroleum India Ltd over 8 quarters, the biggest move on the register. That takes promoters to 57.4% of the company. Foreign institutions moved −1.1 points over the same window, to 0.8%. The register is read on the four disclosed classes only; nothing is inferred between filings.

The register over the last two years — Promoters: +1.5 points over 8 quarters to 57.4%; Foreign institutions: −1.1 points over 8 quarters to 0.8%; Domestic institutions: −0.3 points over 8 quarters to 0.2%.

Why the register moved: promoters drove it (+1.5 points), absorbed on the other side by foreign institutions (−1.1 points) — steady accumulation by institutions reading the same numbers this page reads.

Safety line The Z-score estimates how far a company sits from balance-sheet distress — above roughly 3 is safe, below roughly 1.8 is the danger zone. It was built for manufacturers, so it is not applied to banks and lenders.

Confidence Petroleum India Ltd: the Z-score is not available for this stock, so we say so rather than invent one. It is a distance-to-distress estimate from the balance sheet, not a forecast of failure. The debt, cash-flow and return sections above carry the balance-sheet evidence this page does hold, and each of them states its own reporting date.

The safety line in one sentence: the Z-score is not available for this stock, so we say so rather than invent one.

Valuation P/E is the price of ₹1 of annual profit: how many rupees the market pays for each rupee the company earns in a year.

Confidence Petroleum India Ltd trades at 17.8× P/E, near the bottom of its own range — cheaper only 22% of the time. Its long-run median P/E is 25.1×, measured across 10.4 years of weekly readings. This places the multiple against the stock’s own record, and says nothing about what the business is worth.

Today's P/E of 17.8× is near the bottom of its own range — cheaper only 22% of the time, against a long-run median of 25.1× measured over 10.4 years of weekly readings. This is a comparison against the stock's own history — not a claim about what it is worth.

🚨 Why the multiple sits where it does: over the past year annual EPS moved +2.6% against a +50.0% price move — the price outran earnings, pushing the multiple UP its own range.

The price move, decomposed: over 5y, of the +3.2%/yr price move, ~+8.9%/yr came from earnings growth and ~−5.7 pp from the multiple (compressing); over 10y, of the +28.2%/yr price move, ~+44.8%/yr came from earnings growth and ~−16.6 pp from the multiple (compressing). The split is the honest approximate (price return minus earnings growth); it makes the rally itself visible instead of hiding it behind the percentile.

Put together: the multiple is low against its own past, so the story rests on the earnings line underneath it, not the multiple.

What the price assumes This reading works the multiple backwards. It asks one question: what yearly rate of profit growth is a buyer at the market price already paying for? The number is the growth rate that makes eleven years of profit — six years growing, then five fading — add up to that day's market price, once each year is discounted at 11% a year.

At its price on 15 June 2026, Confidence Petroleum India Ltd was priced for profit growth of about 17.6% a year. Profit itself has compounded 58.0% a year over the past 10 years. The market pays that at 17.8× P/E, the 22nd percentile of its own 10-year range.

What the two numbers say together. The multiple is low against its own past, and the growth the price is paying for is below what this company has actually delivered. Both readings sit on the same earnings, so they are one reading rather than two.

How to hold this number: it is a reading of one day's price, taken on 15 June 2026, not a running figure. A higher price is paying for more growth and a lower price for less, so it moves whenever the price does, and this page does not restate it between measurements. Every other number on this page is read off the live quote.

Stage: Improving Every business sits somewhere on a fundamental arc, and this page names the spot before anything else. The last twelve quarters of revenue, profit and EPS growth — plus the return the business earns on its capital — are read as curves: Deteriorating (the curves are falling), Turning around (a trough has just formed and the last few quarters lift off it), Improving (the climb off the trough is sustained), Consistent (steadily positive with healthy returns), Topping out (still high but decelerating from the peak). When the curves genuinely disagree the read is Mixed; too little history is No read. CAGR (compound annual growth rate) is the smooth yearly pace that turns the starting value into the latest one — the fairest way to compare growth across different time spans. Read the columns together: if the 1-year number towers over the 10-year, recent growth is running hotter than the long-run trend. A dash means that window is not held, or the base year was a loss (where a growth rate is not meaningful).

Confidence Petroleum India Ltd reads as improving on its fundamental arc. Improving — profit growth bottomed 6 quarters ago at −31.0% and has held its recovery at +45.3%, ROCE holding at 10.5%. The read is built from 12 quarters across 4 curves, on full evidence.

Why it matters: a sustained climb off the trough is the setup this page is built to catch — the question moves to what you pay for it.

4-Factor Sector Score

52.6/100 — rank 2 of 2 in LPG Bottling · 97% evidence confidence

Confidence Petroleum India Ltd scores 52.6 out of 100 against the 2 companies it is compared with in LPG Bottling, ranking 2. Balanced evidence: keep at normal research priority and require another comparable period before raising conviction.

The four contributions add to the total exactly: 24.8 + 5.3 + 4.6 + 17.9 = 52.6. This is the SAME number shown on the sector comparison — it is computed once, for the whole peer set, and read here.

What would change it: The read weakens if profit growth turns negative or margin improvement reverses while sector-relative strength deteriorates.

Frequently asked questions