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Confidence Petroleum India Ltd: Why Is It Outperforming Nifty 500?

Active
RS +76.5%Weak6w Streak

In Week of May 10, 2026, Confidence Petroleum India Ltd (LPG Bottling) is outperforming Nifty 500 with +76.5% relative strength. Fundamentals: Weak. On a 6-week streak.

Confidence Petroleum India Ltd Key Facts

PE Ratio
21.6x
Market Cap
₹1,818 Cr
PAT Growth YoY
-19%
Revenue Growth YoY
+100%
OPM
6.0%
RS vs Nifty 500
+76.5%
PE: Cycle BottomStrong Opportunity

What's Happening

💎PE falling while earnings hold — value emerging
🌐FII stake decreased 1.1% this quarter
💰Trading 75% above estimated fair value — significant premium

Earnings Acceleration Triggers

1. Geographical Expansion
ImmediateMEDIUM
2. Tam Expansion Changing Consumption
2 yearsMEDIUM

Key Risks

1. West Asia conflict impacting LPG supply and logistics through the Strait of Horm
HIGH
2. Contesting a GST show cause notice of ₹233
MEDIUM
3. Andhra Pradesh High Court restricted the company from exporting LPG to internati
LOW

Sector-Specific Signals

LPG Division Revenue₹1,324.56 Cr95.4%
Cylinder Division Revenue Growth-45.8%-45.8%
Bottling Plant Network60+Not Given
CNG Station Expansion Target100Not Given

Key Numbers

PAT Growth YoY
-19%
Inflection Down
Revenue YoY
+100%
Stable
Operating Margin
6.0%
-600 bps YoY
PE Ratio
21.6
Current Price
₹55
Dividend Yield
0.18%
Fundamental Score
25/100
Weak
3Y PAT CAGR
+0%
Market Cap
1.8K Cr
Valuation
Significantly Overvalued

12-Week Performance

Weekly presence in the outperformers list. Green = beating Nifty 500 by 10%+ that week.

12 weeks agoThis week

Why Are Confidence Petroleum India Ltd's Earnings Accelerating?

Based on Q3 FY26 (web) earnings • Updated Apr 18, 2026

Geographical Expansion

Expected: ImmediateMEDIUM confidence

What: investment: Dubai Subsidiary

Tam Expansion Changing Consumption

Expected: 2 yearsMEDIUM confidence

What: capex: ₹350 Cr

Impact: 100 CNG stations

What Are the Key Risks for Confidence Petroleum India Ltd?

Earnings deceleration risks from management commentary

West Asia conflict impacting LPG supply and logistics through the Strait of Horm

HIGH

Trigger: West Asia conflict impacting LPG supply and logistics through the Strait of Hormuz, causing cost escalation.

Impact: PAT impact: 19.2% YoY decline

Management view: Prioritizing domestic supply and exploring alternative sourcing.

Monitor: geopolitical

Contesting a GST show cause notice of ₹233

MEDIUM

Trigger: Contesting a GST show cause notice of ₹233.85 Cr and ongoing Income Tax searches.

Management view: The company is contesting the GST demand and has disclosed the IT search.

Monitor: regulatory

Andhra Pradesh High Court restricted the company from exporting LPG to internati

LOW

Trigger: Andhra Pradesh High Court restricted the company from exporting LPG to international markets due to domestic shortages.

Management view: Bombay High Court recently closed separate petitions from LPG dealers in the company's favor.

Monitor: litigation

What Did Confidence Petroleum India Ltd Report This Quarter?

Headline numbers from the latest earnings call

Revenue

₹1,393.88 Cr

YoY +99.91%QoQ +41.8%

Revenue doubled year-on-year primarily due to the LPG Division, which contributed ₹1,324.56 Cr to the total.

EBITDA

₹95.15 Cr

YoY -7.3%Margin 6.8%

The EBITDA margin saw a significant contraction of 790 basis points compared to the previous year.

PAT

₹21.28 Cr

YoY -19.2%QoQ +4.3%

While PAT grew marginally on a sequential basis, it declined by nearly 20% year-on-year.

Other Highlights

• LPG Division revenue nearly doubled YoY while Cylinder Division revenue declined by 45.8%.

• Company utilized ₹194.29 Cr out of ₹250.11 Cr raised via preferential issue for capex.

• Income Tax search conducted in October 2025 with no further communication received yet.

What Sector Metrics Matter for Confidence Petroleum India Ltd?

Sub-sector-specific signals from the latest concall — each with management's stated reason for the change

LPG Division Revenue

₹1,324.56 Cr

YoY 95.4%QoQ Not Given

Why: Increased demand for bulk LPG usage in industries and competitive pricing of imported blends.

Cylinder Division Revenue Growth

-45.8%

YoY -45.8%QoQ Not Given

Why: Not explained in source

Bottling Plant Network

60+

YoY Not GivenQoQ Not Given

Why: Strategic expansion to become India's largest private sector LPG bottler.

CNG Station Expansion Target

100

YoY Not GivenQoQ Not Given

Why: Diversification into the CNG segment to capture growing demand for cleaner fuels.

LPG Procurement Cost

₹1,024.15 Cr

YoY Not GivenQoQ Not Given

Why: High procurement costs due to direct imports and rising international crude prices.

EBITDA Margin Contraction

790

YoY 790 bpsQoQ Not Given

Why: Surge in global crude prices and increased freight/insurance costs for shipping via alternative routes.

What Is Confidence Petroleum India Ltd's Management Guidance?

Forward-looking targets from management

Capex Plan

₹350 Cr

Capex Plan

₹350 Cr

CNG segment expansion and setting up 100 CNG stations over two years.

Management Tone: CAUTIOUS

How Fast Is Confidence Petroleum India Ltd Growing?

Revenue, profit and margin growth rates

MetricYoY3Y CAGRTrend
Revenue+100%+30%Stable
PAT (Net Profit)-19%+0%Inflection Down
OPM6.0%-600 bpsVolatile

The above analysis is parsed from publicly available earnings call transcripts. This is educational research only — not investment advice. Last updated Apr 18, 2026.

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Frequently Asked Questions: Confidence Petroleum India Ltd

Based on publicly available financial data. This is educational research, not investment advice.

What were Confidence Petroleum India Ltd's latest quarterly results?

Confidence Petroleum India Ltd's latest quarterly results (Dec 2025) show

  • PAT Growth YoY: -19.2% (inflecting downward)
  • Revenue Growth YoY: +100.0%
  • Operating Margin: 6.0% (volatile)

Is Confidence Petroleum India Ltd's profit growing or declining?

Confidence Petroleum India Ltd's profit is declining with an inflecting downward trend.

  • PAT Growth YoY: -19.2% (latest quarter)
  • PAT Growth QoQ: +5.0% (sequential)
  • 3-Year PAT CAGR: +0.4%
  • Trend: Inflecting downward — consistent growth pattern

What is Confidence Petroleum India Ltd's revenue growth trend?

Confidence Petroleum India Ltd's revenue growth trend is stable.

  • Revenue Growth YoY: +100.0%
  • Revenue Growth QoQ: +41.8% (sequential)
  • 3-Year Revenue CAGR: +30.1%

How is Confidence Petroleum India Ltd's operating margin trending?

Confidence Petroleum India Ltd's operating margin is volatile.

  • Current OPM: 6.0%
  • OPM Change YoY: -6.0% basis points
  • OPM Change QoQ: -2.0% basis points

What is Confidence Petroleum India Ltd's 3-year profit and revenue CAGR?

Confidence Petroleum India Ltd's long-term compounding rates

  • 3-Year Profit CAGR: +0.4%
  • 3-Year Revenue CAGR: +30.1%

Is Confidence Petroleum India Ltd's growth accelerating or decelerating?

Confidence Petroleum India Ltd's earnings growth is inflecting downward with improving on a sequential basis.

  • YoY Acceleration: -10.1% bps
  • Sequential Acceleration: +5.0% bps
  • Margin Warning: Operating margins are under pressure

What is Confidence Petroleum India Ltd's trailing twelve month (TTM) performance?

Confidence Petroleum India Ltd's trailing twelve month (TTM) performance

  • TTM PAT: ₹88 Cr
  • TTM PAT Growth: +14.3% YoY
  • TTM Revenue: ₹4,000 Cr
  • TTM Revenue Growth: +54.8% YoY
  • TTM Operating Margin: 7.5%

Is Confidence Petroleum India Ltd overvalued or undervalued?

Confidence Petroleum India Ltd appears significantly overvalued based on our fair value analysis.

  • Valuation Signal: Significantly Overvalued
  • Current PE: 21.6x
  • Price-to-Book: 1.3x

What is Confidence Petroleum India Ltd's current PE ratio?

Confidence Petroleum India Ltd's current PE ratio is 21.6x.

  • Current PE: 21.6x
  • Market Cap: 1.8K Cr
  • Dividend Yield: 0.18%

How does Confidence Petroleum India Ltd's valuation compare to its history?

Confidence Petroleum India Ltd's current PE is 21.6x.

  • Current PE: 21.6x
  • Valuation Assessment: Significantly Overvalued

What is Confidence Petroleum India Ltd's price-to-book ratio?

Confidence Petroleum India Ltd's price-to-book ratio is 1.3x.

  • Price-to-Book (P/B): 1.3x
  • Book Value per Share: ₹41
  • Current Price: ₹55

Is Confidence Petroleum India Ltd a fundamentally strong company?

Confidence Petroleum India Ltd is rated Weak with a fundamental score of 25/100. This score is calculated from objective financial metrics

  • Revenue Growth YoY: +100.0% (10% weight)
  • PAT Growth YoY: -19.2% (10% weight)
  • PAT Growth QoQ: +5.0% (10% weight)
  • Margins stable (10% weight)

Is Confidence Petroleum India Ltd debt free?

Confidence Petroleum India Ltd has a debt-to-equity ratio of N/A.

  • Total Debt: ₹830 Cr

What is Confidence Petroleum India Ltd's return on equity (ROE) and ROCE?

Confidence Petroleum India Ltd's return ratios over recent years

  • FY2023: ROCE 13.0%
  • FY2024: ROCE 13.0%
  • FY2025: ROCE 9.0%

Is Confidence Petroleum India Ltd's cash flow positive?

Confidence Petroleum India Ltd's operating cash flow is positive (FY2025).

  • Cash from Operations (CFO): ₹10 Cr
  • Free Cash Flow (FCF): ₹-125 Cr
  • CFO/PAT Ratio: 11% (weak cash conversion)

What is Confidence Petroleum India Ltd's dividend yield?

Confidence Petroleum India Ltd's current dividend yield is 0.18%.

  • Dividend Yield: 0.18%
  • Current Price: ₹55

Who holds Confidence Petroleum India Ltd shares — promoters, FII, DII?

Confidence Petroleum India Ltd's shareholding pattern (Mar 2026)

  • Promoters: 55.9%
  • FII (Foreign): 0.5%
  • DII (Domestic): 0.0%
  • Public: 43.6%

Is promoter holding increasing or decreasing in Confidence Petroleum India Ltd?

Confidence Petroleum India Ltd's promoter holding has remained stable recently.

  • Current Promoter Holding: 55.9% (Mar 2026)
  • Previous Quarter: 55.9% (Dec 2025)
  • Change: 0.00% (stable)

How long has Confidence Petroleum India Ltd been outperforming Nifty 500?

Confidence Petroleum India Ltd has been outperforming Nifty 500 for 6 consecutive weeks, indicating building momentum.

Is Confidence Petroleum India Ltd a new momentum entry or an established outperformer?

Confidence Petroleum India Ltd is an established outperformer with 6 weeks of consecutive Nifty 500 outperformance.

What are the growth catalysts for Confidence Petroleum India Ltd?

Confidence Petroleum India Ltd has 2 key growth catalysts identified from recent earnings analysis

  • Geographical Expansion — Direct sourcing from the Middle East improves supply chain control but increases exposure to West Asia geopolitical risks.
  • Tam Expansion Changing Consumption — Transitioning from pure-play LPG to a diversified CNG/LPG player expands the addressable market.

What are the key risks in Confidence Petroleum India Ltd?

Confidence Petroleum India Ltd has 3 key risks worth monitoring

  • [HIGH] West Asia conflict impacting LPG supply and logistics through the Strait of Horm — West Asia conflict impacting LPG supply and logistics through the Strait of Hormuz, causing cost escalation.
  • [MEDIUM] Contesting a GST show cause notice of ₹233 — Contesting a GST show cause notice of ₹233.85 Cr and ongoing Income Tax searches.
  • [LOW] Andhra Pradesh High Court restricted the company from exporting LPG to internati — Andhra Pradesh High Court restricted the company from exporting LPG to international markets due to domestic shortages.

What is Confidence Petroleum India Ltd's management guidance for growth?

Confidence Petroleum India Ltd's management has provided the following forward guidance

  • Revenue outlook: Not Given
  • Margin outlook: Not Given
  • Capex plan: ₹350 Cr for CNG segment expansion and setting up 100 CNG stations over two years.
  • Management tone: cautious

What sector-specific metrics matter most for Confidence Petroleum India Ltd?

Confidence Petroleum India Ltd's most important sub-sector-specific KPIs from the latest concall

  • LPG Division Revenue: ₹1,324.56 Cr (YoY 95.4%) (QoQ Not Given) — Increased demand for bulk LPG usage in industries and competitive pricing of imported blends.
  • Cylinder Division Revenue Growth: -45.8% (YoY -45.8%) (QoQ Not Given) — Not explained in source
  • Bottling Plant Network: 60+ (YoY Not Given) (QoQ Not Given) — Strategic expansion to become India's largest private sector LPG bottler.
  • CNG Station Expansion Target: 100 (YoY Not Given) (QoQ Not Given) — Diversification into the CNG segment to capture growing demand for cleaner fuels.
  • LPG Procurement Cost: ₹1,024.15 Cr (YoY Not Given) (QoQ Not Given) — High procurement costs due to direct imports and rising international crude prices.
  • EBITDA Margin Contraction: 790 (YoY 790 bps) (QoQ Not Given) — Surge in global crude prices and increased freight/insurance costs for shipping via alternative routes.

Is Confidence Petroleum India Ltd worth studying for long term investment?

Based on quantitative research signals, here is why Confidence Petroleum India Ltd may be worth studying

  • Cash flow is positive — CFO ₹10 Cr

What is the investment thesis for Confidence Petroleum India Ltd?

Confidence Petroleum India Ltd investment thesis summary:

Research Signals (Bull Case)

  • Revenue growing at +100.0% YoY
  • Growth catalyst: Geographical Expansion

Risk Factors (Bear Case)

  • Margins under pressure
  • Appears significantly overvalued
  • Key risk: West Asia conflict impacting LPG supply and logistics through the Strait of Horm

What is the future outlook for Confidence Petroleum India Ltd?

Confidence Petroleum India Ltd's forward outlook based on current data signals

  • Earnings Trend: inflecting downward
  • Revenue Trend: stable
  • Margin Trend: volatile
  • Valuation: Significantly Overvalued
  • Key Catalyst: Geographical Expansion
  • Key Risk: West Asia conflict impacting LPG supply and logistics through the Strait of Horm

The above FAQs are generated from publicly available earnings data and conference call transcripts. This is educational research only. Sector Alpha is not SEBI registered and does not provide investment advice.