Industry Consolidation Virtual Monopoly
Expected: Next 5 yearsHIGH confidence
What: Anti-dumping duty extension: 5 years
“Anti-dumping duty, just yesterday we came to know, is extended for another five years on the TDI.”
Gujarat Narmada Valley Fertilizers & Chemicals Ltd: Why Is It Outperforming Nifty 500?
ActiveWeakRe-Entry
In , Gujarat Narmada Valley Fertilizers & Chemicals Ltd (Fertilisers) is outperforming Nifty 500 with +8.3% relative strength. Fundamentals: Weak.
Gujarat Narmada Valley Fertilizers & Chemicals Ltd Key Facts
- PE Ratio
- 11.7x
- Market Cap
- ₹7,290 Cr
- PAT Growth YoY
- -8%
- Revenue Growth YoY
- +5%
- OPM
- 9.0%
- RS vs Nifty 500
- +8.3%
PE: Mid ContractionStrong Opportunity
What's Happening
💎PE falling while earnings hold — value emerging
💪Debt reduced 88% YoY — balance sheet strengthening
🌐FII stake decreased 4.1% this quarter
💰Trading 44% above estimated fair value — significant premium
Earnings Acceleration Triggers
1. Industry Consolidation Virtual Monopoly
Next 5 yearsHIGH
2. Operating Leverage Inflection
FY27MEDIUM
3. Fertilizer Segment Performance
MEDIUM
Key Risks
1. Uncertainty and price volatility in Methanol, a key feedstock for acetic acid
HIGH2. Pending demand notice of Rs
MEDIUMSector-Specific Signals
TDI Realization per KgRs. 168
Total Ammonia Production175,000 tonnes
Weak Nitric Acid Production118,000 tonnes
Ammonium Nitrate Melt Production116,000 tonnes
Key Numbers
PAT Growth YoY
-8%
Inflection Down
Revenue YoY
+5%
Inflection Up
Operating Margin
9.0%
+200 bps YoY
PE Ratio
11.7
Current Price
₹496
Dividend Yield
3.63%
Fundamental Score
33/100
Weak
3Y PAT CAGR
-30%
Market Cap
7.3K Cr
Valuation
Significantly Overvalued12-Week Performance
Weekly presence in the outperformers list. Green = beating Nifty 500 by 10%+ that week.
12 weeks agoThis week
Why Are Gujarat Narmada Valley Fertilizers & Chemicals Ltd's Earnings Accelerating?
Based on Q3 FY26 earnings • Updated Apr 19, 2026
Operating Leverage Inflection
Expected: FY27MEDIUM confidence
What: Cost savings: Rs. 260-300 Cr
Impact: Rs. 300 Cr
“A.T. Kearney has represented at Board level... the total is between Rs. 260 crores to Rs. 300 crores.”
Fertilizer Segment Performance
MEDIUM confidence
What: Fertilizer Segment Performance
“The losses in case of fertilizer have come down. This is mainly because of the unfavorable subsidy freight rates which were booked last quarter”
What Are the Key Risks for Gujarat Narmada Valley Fertilizers & Chemicals Ltd?
Earnings deceleration risks from management commentary
Uncertainty and price volatility in Methanol, a key feedstock for acetic acid
HIGHTrigger: Global and geopolitical issues affecting methanol availability and pricing.
Management view: Monitoring global trends; pricing products on import parity basis.
Monitor: commodity
Pending demand notice of Rs
MEDIUMTrigger: Dispute over telecom revenue purview for non-telecom companies.
Impact: PAT impact: Rs. 21,370 Cr
Management view: The matter is at TDSAT; management believes they have a strong case based on PSU precedents.
Monitor: litigation
What Is Gujarat Narmada Valley Fertilizers & Chemicals Ltd's Management Saying?
Key quotes from recent conference calls
“Okay. And we have given a guidance of around 67,000 for TDI. So we are confident in achieving the same? [Previous TDI Production Guidance guidance]”
“the total is between Rs. 260 crores to Rs. 300 crores. Certain parts of that has been locked. [Initiative: A.T. Kearney Cost Optimization]”
“we are going with a boiler called a CFBC boiler, which has more efficiency... expected to have an efficiency of around 83%. [Initiative: CFBC Boiler Installation]”
“the uncertainty on methanol still continues, which is the main feed into acetic gas, and there are price uncertainties [Risk (commodity): HIGH]”
What Did Gujarat Narmada Valley Fertilizers & Chemicals Ltd Report This Quarter?
Headline numbers from the latest earnings call
Other Highlights
• Fertilizer segment losses reduced due to favorable subsidy freight rates compared to the previous quarter.
• TDI realization in Q3 was approximately Rs. 168 per kg.
• Subsidy outstanding as of the quarter end is roughly Rs. 302 crores.
What Sector Metrics Matter for Gujarat Narmada Valley Fertilizers & Chemicals Ltd?
Sub-sector-specific signals from the latest concall — each with management's stated reason for the change
TDI Realization per Kg
Rs. 168
Why: Suppressed in Q3 due to global weak demand.
Total Ammonia Production
175,000 tonnes
QoQ +20,000 tonnes
Why: Improved production through oil and gas routes.
Weak Nitric Acid Production
118,000 tonnes
QoQ +5,000 tonnes
Why: Combined output from two plants.
Ammonium Nitrate Melt Production
116,000 tonnes
QoQ +43,000 tonnes
Why: Ramp up in production volumes.
TDI Domestic Market Share
60%
YoY Not GivenQoQ Not Given
Subsidy Outstanding
Rs. 302 crores
QoQ +12 crores
Why: Consistent subsidy flow from the government.
Cumulative Capex Spent
Rs. 1,000 crores
Why: Ongoing investment in four major projects.
Acetic Acid Production (H1)
73,000 tonnes
What Is Gujarat Narmada Valley Fertilizers & Chemicals Ltd's Management Guidance?
Forward-looking targets from management
Capex Plan
₹2800 Cr
Capex Plan
Rs. 2,800 crores
Four major projects: Weak Nitric Acid, AN Melt, Ammonia loop expansion, and a coal-fired boiler.
Volume
Expected volume increase from TDI and new projects from 2027 onwards.
Management Tone: BULLISH
Guidance Changes
LOWERED
Weak Nitric Acid Project Timeline: On stream → Slight delay
How Fast Is Gujarat Narmada Valley Fertilizers & Chemicals Ltd Growing?
Revenue, profit and margin growth rates
| Metric | YoY | 3Y CAGR | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | +5% | -3% | Inflection Up |
| PAT (Net Profit) | -8% | -30% | Inflection Down |
| OPM | 9.0% | +200 bps | Volatile |
The above analysis is parsed from publicly available earnings call transcripts. This is educational research only — not investment advice. Last updated Apr 19, 2026.
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Frequently Asked Questions: Gujarat Narmada Valley Fertilizers & Chemicals Ltd
Based on publicly available financial data. This is educational research, not investment advice.
What were Gujarat Narmada Valley Fertilizers & Chemicals Ltd's latest quarterly results?
Gujarat Narmada Valley Fertilizers & Chemicals Ltd's latest quarterly results (Dec 2025) show
- PAT Growth YoY: -8.0% (inflecting downward)
- Revenue Growth YoY: +5.1%
- Operating Margin: 9.0% (volatile)
Is Gujarat Narmada Valley Fertilizers & Chemicals Ltd's profit growing or declining?
Gujarat Narmada Valley Fertilizers & Chemicals Ltd's profit is declining with an inflecting downward trend.
- PAT Growth YoY: -8.0% (latest quarter)
- PAT Growth QoQ: -16.2% (sequential)
- 3-Year PAT CAGR: -29.6%
- Trend: Inflecting downward — consistent growth pattern
What is Gujarat Narmada Valley Fertilizers & Chemicals Ltd's revenue growth trend?
Gujarat Narmada Valley Fertilizers & Chemicals Ltd's revenue growth trend is turning around (inflection up).
- Revenue Growth YoY: +5.1%
- Revenue Growth QoQ: +1.4% (sequential)
- 3-Year Revenue CAGR: -3.0%
How is Gujarat Narmada Valley Fertilizers & Chemicals Ltd's operating margin trending?
Gujarat Narmada Valley Fertilizers & Chemicals Ltd's operating margin is volatile.
- Current OPM: 9.0%
- OPM Change YoY: +2.0% basis points
- OPM Change QoQ: 0.0% basis points
What is Gujarat Narmada Valley Fertilizers & Chemicals Ltd's 3-year profit and revenue CAGR?
Gujarat Narmada Valley Fertilizers & Chemicals Ltd's long-term compounding rates
- 3-Year Profit CAGR: -29.6%
- 3-Year Revenue CAGR: -3.0%
Is Gujarat Narmada Valley Fertilizers & Chemicals Ltd's growth accelerating or decelerating?
Gujarat Narmada Valley Fertilizers & Chemicals Ltd's earnings growth is inflecting downward with mixed signals on a sequential basis.
- YoY Acceleration: -78.5% bps
- Sequential Acceleration: -66.2% bps
What is Gujarat Narmada Valley Fertilizers & Chemicals Ltd's trailing twelve month (TTM) performance?
Gujarat Narmada Valley Fertilizers & Chemicals Ltd's trailing twelve month (TTM) performance
- TTM PAT: ₹623 Cr
- TTM PAT Growth: +20.7% YoY
- TTM Revenue: ₹8,000 Cr
- TTM Revenue Growth: -4.1% YoY
- TTM Operating Margin: 8.3%
Is Gujarat Narmada Valley Fertilizers & Chemicals Ltd overvalued or undervalued?
Gujarat Narmada Valley Fertilizers & Chemicals Ltd appears significantly overvalued based on our fair value analysis.
- Valuation Signal: Significantly Overvalued
- Current PE: 11.7x
- Price-to-Book: 0.8x
What is Gujarat Narmada Valley Fertilizers & Chemicals Ltd's current PE ratio?
Gujarat Narmada Valley Fertilizers & Chemicals Ltd's current PE ratio is 11.7x.
- Current PE: 11.7x
- Market Cap: 7.3K Cr
- Dividend Yield: 3.63%
How does Gujarat Narmada Valley Fertilizers & Chemicals Ltd's valuation compare to its history?
Gujarat Narmada Valley Fertilizers & Chemicals Ltd's current PE is 11.7x.
- Current PE: 11.7x
- Valuation Assessment: Significantly Overvalued
What is Gujarat Narmada Valley Fertilizers & Chemicals Ltd's price-to-book ratio?
Gujarat Narmada Valley Fertilizers & Chemicals Ltd's price-to-book ratio is 0.8x.
- Price-to-Book (P/B): 0.8x
- Book Value per Share: ₹589
- Current Price: ₹496
Is Gujarat Narmada Valley Fertilizers & Chemicals Ltd a fundamentally strong company?
Gujarat Narmada Valley Fertilizers & Chemicals Ltd is rated Weak with a fundamental score of 32.8/100. This score is calculated from objective financial metrics
- Revenue Growth YoY: +5.1% (10% weight)
- PAT Growth YoY: -8.0% (10% weight)
- PAT Growth QoQ: -16.2% (10% weight)
- Margins stable (10% weight)
Is Gujarat Narmada Valley Fertilizers & Chemicals Ltd debt free?
Gujarat Narmada Valley Fertilizers & Chemicals Ltd has a debt-to-equity ratio of N/A.
- Total Debt: ₹106 Cr
What is Gujarat Narmada Valley Fertilizers & Chemicals Ltd's return on equity (ROE) and ROCE?
Gujarat Narmada Valley Fertilizers & Chemicals Ltd's return ratios over recent years
- FY2023: ROCE 23.0%
- FY2024: ROCE 8.0%
- FY2025: ROCE 10.0%
Is Gujarat Narmada Valley Fertilizers & Chemicals Ltd's cash flow positive?
Gujarat Narmada Valley Fertilizers & Chemicals Ltd's operating cash flow is positive (FY2025).
- Cash from Operations (CFO): ₹605 Cr
- Free Cash Flow (FCF): ₹139 Cr
- CFO/PAT Ratio: 101% (strong cash conversion)
What is Gujarat Narmada Valley Fertilizers & Chemicals Ltd's dividend yield?
Gujarat Narmada Valley Fertilizers & Chemicals Ltd's current dividend yield is 3.63%.
- Dividend Yield: 3.63%
- Current Price: ₹496
Who holds Gujarat Narmada Valley Fertilizers & Chemicals Ltd shares — promoters, FII, DII?
Gujarat Narmada Valley Fertilizers & Chemicals Ltd's shareholding pattern (Mar 2026)
- Promoters: 41.3%
- FII (Foreign): 12.1%
- DII (Domestic): 11.1%
- Public: 35.6%
Is promoter holding increasing or decreasing in Gujarat Narmada Valley Fertilizers & Chemicals Ltd?
Gujarat Narmada Valley Fertilizers & Chemicals Ltd's promoter holding has remained stable recently.
- Current Promoter Holding: 41.3% (Mar 2026)
- Previous Quarter: 41.3% (Dec 2025)
- Change: 0.00% (stable)
How long has Gujarat Narmada Valley Fertilizers & Chemicals Ltd been outperforming Nifty 500?
Gujarat Narmada Valley Fertilizers & Chemicals Ltd has been outperforming Nifty 500 for 1 consecutive week, indicating early-stage outperformance.
Is Gujarat Narmada Valley Fertilizers & Chemicals Ltd a new momentum entry or an established outperformer?
Gujarat Narmada Valley Fertilizers & Chemicals Ltd is a re-entry — it briefly dropped off the outperformance list but has now returned. Re-entries can signal renewed strength.
What are the growth catalysts for Gujarat Narmada Valley Fertilizers & Chemicals Ltd?
Gujarat Narmada Valley Fertilizers & Chemicals Ltd has 3 key growth catalysts identified from recent earnings analysis
- Industry Consolidation Virtual Monopoly — The government extended anti-dumping duties on TDI, protecting domestic realizations.
- Operating Leverage Inflection — Implementation of A.T. Kearney's operational transformation and new efficient boilers.
- Fertilizer Segment Performance — Reduction in losses driven by favorable subsidy freight rates and volume growth in Urea.
What are the key risks in Gujarat Narmada Valley Fertilizers & Chemicals Ltd?
Gujarat Narmada Valley Fertilizers & Chemicals Ltd has 2 key risks worth monitoring
- [HIGH] Uncertainty and price volatility in Methanol, a key feedstock for acetic acid — Global and geopolitical issues affecting methanol availability and pricing.
- [MEDIUM] Pending demand notice of Rs — Dispute over telecom revenue purview for non-telecom companies.
What did Gujarat Narmada Valley Fertilizers & Chemicals Ltd's management say in the latest earnings call?
In Q3 FY26, Gujarat Narmada Valley Fertilizers & Chemicals Ltd's management highlighted
- "Okay. And we have given a guidance of around 67,000 for TDI. So we are confident in achieving the same? [Previous TDI Production Guidance guidance]"
- "the total is between Rs. 260 crores to Rs. 300 crores. Certain parts of that has been locked. [Initiative: A.T. Kearney Cost Optimization]"
- "we are going with a boiler called a CFBC boiler, which has more efficiency... expected to have an efficiency of around 83%. [Initiative: CFBC Boiler ..."
What is Gujarat Narmada Valley Fertilizers & Chemicals Ltd's management guidance for growth?
Gujarat Narmada Valley Fertilizers & Chemicals Ltd's management has provided the following forward guidance
- Revenue outlook: Not Given
- Margin outlook: Not Given
- Capex plan: ₹2800 Cr for Four major projects: Weak Nitric Acid, AN Melt, Ammonia loop expansion, and a coal-fired boiler.
- Management tone: bullish
- Milestone: [LOWERED] Weak Nitric Acid Project Timeline: On stream → Slight delay
What sector-specific metrics matter most for Gujarat Narmada Valley Fertilizers & Chemicals Ltd?
Gujarat Narmada Valley Fertilizers & Chemicals Ltd's most important sub-sector-specific KPIs from the latest concall
- TDI Realization per Kg: Rs. 168 — Suppressed in Q3 due to global weak demand.
- Total Ammonia Production: 175,000 tonnes (QoQ +20,000 tonnes) — Improved production through oil and gas routes.
- Weak Nitric Acid Production: 118,000 tonnes (QoQ +5,000 tonnes) — Combined output from two plants.
- Ammonium Nitrate Melt Production: 116,000 tonnes (QoQ +43,000 tonnes) — Ramp up in production volumes.
- TDI Domestic Market Share: 60% (YoY Not Given) (QoQ Not Given)
- Subsidy Outstanding: Rs. 302 crores (QoQ +12 crores) — Consistent subsidy flow from the government.
Is Gujarat Narmada Valley Fertilizers & Chemicals Ltd worth studying for long term investment?
Based on quantitative research signals, here is why Gujarat Narmada Valley Fertilizers & Chemicals Ltd may be worth studying
- Cash flow is positive — CFO ₹605 Cr
What is the investment thesis for Gujarat Narmada Valley Fertilizers & Chemicals Ltd?
Gujarat Narmada Valley Fertilizers & Chemicals Ltd investment thesis summary:
Research Signals (Bull Case)
- Growth catalyst: Industry Consolidation Virtual Monopoly
Risk Factors (Bear Case)
- Appears significantly overvalued
- Key risk: Uncertainty and price volatility in Methanol, a key feedstock for acetic acid
What is the future outlook for Gujarat Narmada Valley Fertilizers & Chemicals Ltd?
Gujarat Narmada Valley Fertilizers & Chemicals Ltd's forward outlook based on current data signals
- Earnings Trend: inflecting downward
- Revenue Trend: turning around (inflection up)
- Margin Trend: volatile
- Valuation: Significantly Overvalued
- Key Catalyst: Industry Consolidation Virtual Monopoly
- Key Risk: Uncertainty and price volatility in Methanol, a key feedstock for acetic acid
The above FAQs are generated from publicly available earnings data and conference call transcripts. This is educational research only. Sector Alpha is not SEBI registered and does not provide investment advice.