Operating Leverage Inflection
Expected: OngoingHIGH confidence
What: Alumina Production Growth: 20%
Impact: ₹700 Cr volume contribution in H1
“The increase in volume has given us around INR700 crores and efficiency has given us around NR300 crores.”
National Aluminium Company Ltd: Why Is It Outperforming Nifty 500?
ActiveRS +14.7%Average11w Streak
In , National Aluminium Company Ltd (Aluminium) is outperforming Nifty 500 with +14.7% relative strength. Fundamentals: Average. On a 11-week streak.
National Aluminium Company Ltd Key Facts
- PE Ratio
- 12.7x
- Market Cap
- ₹73,823 Cr
- PAT Growth YoY
- -17%
- Revenue Growth YoY
- -5%
- OPM
- 47.0%
- RS vs Nifty 500
- +14.7%
PE: Mid ExpansionStrong Opportunity
What's Happening
💎PE falling while earnings hold — value emerging
🌐FII stake increased 4.1% this quarter
🏛️DII reducing — stake down 3.8%
💰Trading 213% below estimated fair value — significant discount
Earnings Acceleration Triggers
1. Operating Leverage Inflection
OngoingHIGH
2. New Product Or Brand Launch
June 2026HIGH
3. Interest Cost Reduction Deleveraging
CurrentMEDIUM
Key Risks
1. Alumina prices fell from $562 to $385, creating a ₹1,652 Cr negative impact on 9
HIGH2. Tensions in the Middle East disrupted alumina exports in January 2026
MEDIUM3. Wage revision due from January 1, 2027
LOWSector-Specific Signals
Alumina Production Volume (9M)20% increase+20%
Alumina Realisation (Q3)$349-38%
Metal Realisation (Q3)$2,867+13%
Caustic Soda Specific Consumption99 kg/ton-18%
Key Numbers
PAT Growth YoY
-17%
Inflection Down
Revenue YoY
-5%
Inflection Down
Operating Margin
47.0%
-500 bps YoY
PE Ratio
12.7
Current Price
₹402
Dividend Yield
2.61%
Fundamental Score
57/100
Average
3Y PAT CAGR
+59%
Market Cap
73.8K Cr
Valuation
Significantly Undervalued12-Week Performance
Weekly presence in the outperformers list. Green = beating Nifty 500 by 10%+ that week.
12 weeks agoThis week
Why Are National Aluminium Company Ltd's Earnings Accelerating?
Based on Q3 FY26 earnings • Updated Apr 18, 2026
New Product Or Brand Launch
Expected: June 2026HIGH confidence
What: New Refinery Capacity: 1 million ton
Impact: 3 lakh tons incremental volume in FY27
“existing refinery capacity, which is around 2.1 million ton, will become around 3.1 million ton.”
Interest Cost Reduction Deleveraging
Expected: CurrentMEDIUM confidence
What: Cash Balance: ₹7,900 Cr
“Interest is not there because we have not taken any loan for that... our cash balance will take care of the intermediate payment.”
Alumina Sales Volume reached 1.1 million tons in 9 months.
HIGH confidence
What: Alumina Sales Volume reached 1.1 million tons in 9 months.
“Volumes of production has increased by 20% in alumina... and sales of alumina has increased by 45%.”
What Are the Key Risks for National Aluminium Company Ltd?
Earnings deceleration risks from management commentary
Alumina prices fell from $562 to $385, creating a ₹1,652 Cr negative impact on 9
HIGHTrigger: Excess global supply from new refineries in Indonesia and reduced smelting capacity in some regions.
Impact: PAT impact: ₹1,652 Cr revenue hit
Management view: Offsetting through volume growth and efficiency improvements in caustic soda consumption.
Monitor: commodity
Tensions in the Middle East disrupted alumina exports in January 2026
MEDIUMTrigger: Regional instability affecting shipping and demand from Middle Eastern buyers.
Management view: Planning to increase shipments in February and March to recover the shortfall.
Monitor: geopolitical
Wage revision due from January 1, 2027
LOWTrigger: Periodic CPSE wage settlement cycle.
Management view: Expected to be offset by high superannuation of senior staff and lower-scale recruitment.
Monitor: labor
What Is National Aluminium Company Ltd's Management Saying?
Key quotes from recent conference calls
“So H2 also, our overall yearly plan was around 12 lakh tons to 12.5 lakh tons. [Previous Alumina Sales Volume guidance]”
“Now we are on track and whatever timelines of June 2026 we have taken; we will commission it in June 2026. [Previous Refinery Commissioning guidance]”
“We are expecting that around 3 lakh tons of alumina production from there from this year onwards. [Initiative: 5th Stream Refinery Commissioning]”
“Already, they will be taking around one and a half to two years to set up this whole technology. [Initiative: Critical Mineral Extraction]”
What Did National Aluminium Company Ltd Report This Quarter?
Headline numbers from the latest earnings call
Revenue
₹2,000 Cr increase in 9M
YoY +13%QoQ +7.4%
Why: The increase in revenue was primarily driven by higher volumes of production and sales in both alumina and metal segments.
Revenue growth was volume-led, offsetting a negative impact from lower alumina prices.
EBITDA
Not Disclosed
YoY +20%Margin 20%
Why: EBITDA margins improved due to volume growth and better efficiencies in caustic soda and CP coke consumption.
Margin expansion was supported by a 20% increase in alumina production volumes.
PAT
₹2,131 Cr
YoY +25%QoQ +0.5%
Why: Profitability increased due to higher metal prices and savings in power, fuel, and employee costs.
PAT growth remained resilient despite a significant negative price impact from alumina.
Other Highlights
• Alumina production increased by 20% in 9M FY26
• Power and fuel savings of ₹142 Cr in 9M FY26
• Employee cost reduction of ₹118 Cr in 9M FY26
What Sector Metrics Matter for National Aluminium Company Ltd?
Sub-sector-specific signals from the latest concall — each with management's stated reason for the change
Alumina Production Volume (9M)
20% increase
YoY +20%
Why: Operational efficiencies and ramp-up of existing streams.
Alumina Realisation (Q3)
$349
YoY -38%QoQ -8%
Why: Global excess supply and lower LME-linked pricing.
Metal Realisation (Q3)
$2,867
YoY +13%QoQ +10%
Why: Higher LME prices for aluminium.
Caustic Soda Specific Consumption
99 kg/ton
YoY -18%QoQ -3%
Why: Technical improvements in the refinery process.
Captive Coal Production (Annual Target)
4 million tons
YoY +48%
Why: Ramping up internal mines to reduce dependence on FSA/MCL coal.
Aluminium Cost of Production
₹153,000 - ₹156,000
Why: Stable due to captive alumina transfer at cost.
Grid Power Dependence
<5%
Why: Improved PLF of internal Captive Power Plant (CPP).
Alumina Spot vs Term Mix
75% Spot / 25% Term
Why: Strategic choice to capture spot prices, though currently spot is lower than term.
What Is National Aluminium Company Ltd's Management Guidance?
Forward-looking targets from management
Capex Plan
₹1800 Cr
Capex Plan
₹1,800 Cr to ₹2,000 Cr
Maintenance and ongoing refinery projects
Volume
REAFFIRMED
Management Tone: BULLISH
Guidance Changes
LOWERED
New Refinery Production (FY27): 5 lakh tons → 3 lakh tons
How Fast Is National Aluminium Company Ltd Growing?
Revenue, profit and margin growth rates
| Metric | YoY | 3Y CAGR | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | -5% | +8% | Inflection Down |
| PAT (Net Profit) | -17% | +59% | Inflection Down |
| OPM | 47.0% | -500 bps | Volatile |
The above analysis is parsed from publicly available earnings call transcripts. This is educational research only — not investment advice. Last updated Apr 18, 2026.
Other Top Aluminium Stocks Beating Nifty 500
Frequently Asked Questions: National Aluminium Company Ltd
Based on publicly available financial data. This is educational research, not investment advice.
What were National Aluminium Company Ltd's latest quarterly results?
National Aluminium Company Ltd's latest quarterly results (Mar 2026) show
- PAT Growth YoY: -16.7% (inflecting downward)
- Revenue Growth YoY: -4.8%
- Operating Margin: 47.0% (volatile)
Is National Aluminium Company Ltd's profit growing or declining?
National Aluminium Company Ltd's profit is declining with an inflecting downward trend.
- PAT Growth YoY: -16.7% (latest quarter)
- PAT Growth QoQ: +8.0% (sequential)
- 3-Year PAT CAGR: +59.3%
- Trend: Inflecting downward — consistent growth pattern
What is National Aluminium Company Ltd's revenue growth trend?
National Aluminium Company Ltd's revenue growth trend is inflecting downward.
- Revenue Growth YoY: -4.8%
- Revenue Growth QoQ: +6.0% (sequential)
- 3-Year Revenue CAGR: +7.8%
How is National Aluminium Company Ltd's operating margin trending?
National Aluminium Company Ltd's operating margin is volatile.
- Current OPM: 47.0%
- OPM Change YoY: -5.0% basis points
- OPM Change QoQ: +1.0% basis points
What is National Aluminium Company Ltd's 3-year profit and revenue CAGR?
National Aluminium Company Ltd's long-term compounding rates
- 3-Year Profit CAGR: +59.3%
- 3-Year Revenue CAGR: +7.8%
Is National Aluminium Company Ltd's growth accelerating or decelerating?
National Aluminium Company Ltd's earnings growth is inflecting downward with positive momentum on a sequential basis.
- YoY Acceleration: -18.6% bps
- Sequential Acceleration: -3.5% bps
- Margin Warning: Operating margins are under pressure
What is National Aluminium Company Ltd's trailing twelve month (TTM) performance?
National Aluminium Company Ltd's trailing twelve month (TTM) performance
- TTM PAT: ₹6,000 Cr
- TTM PAT Growth: +10.0% YoY
- TTM Revenue: ₹18,000 Cr
- TTM Revenue Growth: +6.3% YoY
- TTM Operating Margin: 44.5%
Is National Aluminium Company Ltd overvalued or undervalued?
National Aluminium Company Ltd appears significantly undervalued based on our fair value analysis.
- Valuation Signal: Significantly Undervalued
- Current PE: 12.7x
- Price-to-Book: 3.4x
What is National Aluminium Company Ltd's current PE ratio?
National Aluminium Company Ltd's current PE ratio is 12.7x.
- Current PE: 12.7x
- Market Cap: 73.8K Cr
- Dividend Yield: 2.61%
How does National Aluminium Company Ltd's valuation compare to its history?
National Aluminium Company Ltd's current PE is 12.7x.
- Current PE: 12.7x
- Valuation Assessment: Significantly Undervalued
What is National Aluminium Company Ltd's price-to-book ratio?
National Aluminium Company Ltd's price-to-book ratio is 3.4x.
- Price-to-Book (P/B): 3.4x
- Book Value per Share: ₹118
- Current Price: ₹402
Is National Aluminium Company Ltd a fundamentally strong company?
National Aluminium Company Ltd is rated Average with a fundamental score of 57.4/100. This score is calculated from objective financial metrics
- Revenue Growth YoY: -4.8% (10% weight)
- PAT Growth YoY: -16.7% (10% weight)
- PAT Growth QoQ: +8.0% (10% weight)
- Margins stable (10% weight)
Is National Aluminium Company Ltd debt free?
National Aluminium Company Ltd has a debt-to-equity ratio of N/A.
- Total Debt: ₹60 Cr
What is National Aluminium Company Ltd's return on equity (ROE) and ROCE?
National Aluminium Company Ltd's return ratios over recent years
- FY2024: ROCE 17.0%
- FY2025: ROCE 44.0%
- FY2026: ROCE 40.0%
Is National Aluminium Company Ltd's cash flow positive?
National Aluminium Company Ltd's operating cash flow is positive (FY2026).
- Cash from Operations (CFO): ₹6,000 Cr
- Free Cash Flow (FCF): ₹2,000 Cr
- CFO/PAT Ratio: 111% (strong cash conversion)
What is National Aluminium Company Ltd's dividend yield?
National Aluminium Company Ltd's current dividend yield is 2.61%.
- Dividend Yield: 2.61%
- Current Price: ₹402
Who holds National Aluminium Company Ltd shares — promoters, FII, DII?
National Aluminium Company Ltd's shareholding pattern (Mar 2026)
- Promoters: 51.3%
- FII (Foreign): 22.3%
- DII (Domestic): 10.8%
- Public: 15.7%
Is promoter holding increasing or decreasing in National Aluminium Company Ltd?
National Aluminium Company Ltd's promoter holding has remained stable recently.
- Current Promoter Holding: 51.3% (Mar 2026)
- Previous Quarter: 51.3% (Dec 2025)
- Change: 0.00% (stable)
How long has National Aluminium Company Ltd been outperforming Nifty 500?
National Aluminium Company Ltd has been outperforming Nifty 500 for 11 consecutive weeks, indicating consistent outperformance.
Is National Aluminium Company Ltd a new momentum entry or an established outperformer?
National Aluminium Company Ltd is an established outperformer with 11 weeks of consecutive Nifty 500 outperformance.
What are the growth catalysts for National Aluminium Company Ltd?
National Aluminium Company Ltd has 4 key growth catalysts identified from recent earnings analysis
- Operating Leverage Inflection — Increased production volumes are absorbing fixed costs and driving profitability despite price headwinds.
- New Product Or Brand Launch — The new stream will use latest technology with lower manpower and caustic soda consumption.
- Interest Cost Reduction Deleveraging — The company is debt-free and funding massive capex through internal accruals.
- Alumina Sales Volume reached 1.1 million tons in 9 months. — Higher production volumes and liquidation of inventory drove the volume beat.
What are the key risks in National Aluminium Company Ltd?
National Aluminium Company Ltd has 3 key risks worth monitoring
- [HIGH] Alumina prices fell from $562 to $385, creating a ₹1,652 Cr negative impact on 9 — Excess global supply from new refineries in Indonesia and reduced smelting capacity in some regions.
- [MEDIUM] Tensions in the Middle East disrupted alumina exports in January 2026 — Regional instability affecting shipping and demand from Middle Eastern buyers.
- [LOW] Wage revision due from January 1, 2027 — Periodic CPSE wage settlement cycle.
What did National Aluminium Company Ltd's management say in the latest earnings call?
In Q3 FY26, National Aluminium Company Ltd's management highlighted
- "So H2 also, our overall yearly plan was around 12 lakh tons to 12.5 lakh tons. [Previous Alumina Sales Volume guidance]"
- "Now we are on track and whatever timelines of June 2026 we have taken; we will commission it in June 2026. [Previous Refinery Commissioning guidance]"
- "We are expecting that around 3 lakh tons of alumina production from there from this year onwards. [Initiative: 5th Stream Refinery Commissioning]"
What is National Aluminium Company Ltd's management guidance for growth?
National Aluminium Company Ltd's management has provided the following forward guidance
- Revenue outlook: Not Given
- Margin outlook: Not Given
- Capex plan: ₹1800 Cr for Maintenance and ongoing refinery projects
- Management tone: bullish
- Milestone: [LOWERED] New Refinery Production (FY27): 5 lakh tons → 3 lakh tons
What sector-specific metrics matter most for National Aluminium Company Ltd?
National Aluminium Company Ltd's most important sub-sector-specific KPIs from the latest concall
- Alumina Production Volume (9M): 20% increase (YoY +20%) — Operational efficiencies and ramp-up of existing streams.
- Alumina Realisation (Q3): $349 (YoY -38%) (QoQ -8%) — Global excess supply and lower LME-linked pricing.
- Metal Realisation (Q3): $2,867 (YoY +13%) (QoQ +10%) — Higher LME prices for aluminium.
- Caustic Soda Specific Consumption: 99 kg/ton (YoY -18%) (QoQ -3%) — Technical improvements in the refinery process.
- Captive Coal Production (Annual Target): 4 million tons (YoY +48%) — Ramping up internal mines to reduce dependence on FSA/MCL coal.
- Aluminium Cost of Production: ₹153,000 - ₹156,000 — Stable due to captive alumina transfer at cost.
Is National Aluminium Company Ltd worth studying for long term investment?
Based on quantitative research signals, here is why National Aluminium Company Ltd may be worth studying
- Valuation: appears significantly undervalued
- Cash flow is positive — CFO ₹6,000 Cr
What is the investment thesis for National Aluminium Company Ltd?
National Aluminium Company Ltd investment thesis summary:
Research Signals (Bull Case)
- Appears significantly undervalued
- Growth catalyst: Operating Leverage Inflection
Risk Factors (Bear Case)
- Margins under pressure
- Key risk: Alumina prices fell from $562 to $385, creating a ₹1,652 Cr negative impact on 9
What is the future outlook for National Aluminium Company Ltd?
National Aluminium Company Ltd's forward outlook based on current data signals
- Earnings Trend: inflecting downward
- Revenue Trend: inflecting downward
- Margin Trend: volatile
- Valuation: Significantly Undervalued
- Key Catalyst: Operating Leverage Inflection
- Key Risk: Alumina prices fell from $562 to $385, creating a ₹1,652 Cr negative impact on 9
The above FAQs are generated from publicly available earnings data and conference call transcripts. This is educational research only. Sector Alpha is not SEBI registered and does not provide investment advice.