In , Hindalco Industries Ltd (Aluminium) is outperforming Nifty 500 with +12.2% relative strength. Fundamentals: Average. On a 12-week streak.
Weekly presence in the outperformers list. Green = beating Nifty 500 by 10%+ that week.
Based on Q3 FY26 earnings • Updated Apr 18, 2026
What: Bay Minette Commissioning: H2 FY26
Impact: $1,000+ EBITDA/ton
“the target that we have set is a very strong operational performance and very much on the back of the $1,000 plus per ton of EBITDA coming off of the Bay Minette project itself.”
What: Net Debt to EBITDA: Below 2x
“once we complete Bay Minette, our deleveraging cycle starts almost immediately after that. So, basically, after Fiscal Year '27, we enter... a deleveraging cycle.”
What: Novelis cost savings run rate reached $150 million
“With another quarter of solid execution behind us, that run rate is now $150 million as we accelerate all cost efficiency initiatives.”
What: $125 million → $150 million
“that run rate is now $150 million as we accelerate all cost efficiency initiatives.”
Earnings deceleration risks from management commentary
Trigger: Operational disruption at a major facility requiring remediation and external sourcing.
Impact: PAT impact: INR 2,002 Cr (implied adjustment)
Management view: Insurance claims filed; external sourcing of slabs; remediation expected to complete by late Q1 FY27.
Monitor: litigation
Trigger: Demand-supply imbalances in China for CP Coke.
Impact: PAT impact: 1% increase in COP
Management view: Hedging 64% of aluminum commodity at $2,807 per ton.
Monitor: commodity
Trigger: Implementation of Section 232 tariffs at 50%.
Impact: PAT impact: $34 million EBITDA hit in Q3
Management view: Relocating manufacturing to the U.S. and seeking price increases on uncontracted volumes.
Monitor: geopolitical
Key quotes from recent conference calls
“Back in April 2025, we had set an FY '26 exit savings run rate target of $75 million, which we raised last quarter to $100 million. [Previous Novelis Exit Savings Run Rate guidance]”
“So Pinakin, let's take the capex part first. So this year, we have said the capex is going to be around INR8,500 crores. [Previous India Capex FY26 guidance]”
“the target that we have set is a very strong operational performance and very much on the back of the $1,000 plus per ton of EBITDA coming off of the Bay Minette project itself. [Initiative: Bay Minette Greenfield Project]”
“The consolidated profit after tax was down 45% on a year-on-year basis to INR 2,049 crores this quarter, due to the impact of exceptional items, including the impact of the Novelis Oswego plant fires. [Risk (litigation): HIGH]”
Headline numbers from the latest earnings call
EBITDA
₹8,762 Cr
Why: Growth was driven by resilient performance in the India Upstream Aluminum business and cost efficiency initiatives at Novelis.
EBITDA growth was supported by a 14% increase in India Upstream EBITDA despite challenges at Novelis.
PAT
₹2,049 Cr
Why: The decline was due to exceptional items, specifically the impact of the Novelis Oswego plant fires.
Adjusted for exceptional items, PAT would have been INR 4,051 crores, up 8% year-on-year.
Other Highlights
• India Upstream EBITDA per ton reached $1,572
• Novelis adjusted EBITDA per ton was $495
• Consolidated net debt to EBITDA stood at 1.73x
Sub-sector-specific signals from the latest concall — each with management's stated reason for the change
India Upstream EBITDA per Ton
$1,572
Why: Resilient performance across the value chain and operational excellence.
Novelis Adjusted EBITDA per Ton
$495
Why: Impacted by Oswego fires and tariffs, partially offset by cost savings.
Aluminum Hedging % (Q4 FY26)
64%
Why: Management added positions following the recent LME run-up to lock in numbers.
Copper Shipments
122 Kt
Why: Driven by infrastructure investments and electrical applications.
Consolidated Net Debt to EBITDA
1.73x
Why: Increased due to negative free cash flow at Novelis from Oswego fires and high capex.
Alumina Sales
160 Kt
Why: Lower sales due to planned shutdowns and market conditions.
Novelis Recycling Rate
63%
Why: Maintained despite operational impairments in North America.
Renewable Energy Capacity
418 MW
Why: Progress on solar, wind, and hydel resource deployment.
Forward-looking targets from management for Long-term
OPM Guidance
600–600%
Capex Plan
₹12000 Cr
Novelis long-term EBITDA per ton target reaffirmed
INR 10,000 to 12,000 crores
India business expansion including Aditya Refinery and recycling plant projects.
Novelis Oswego volume impact
Guidance Changes
Novelis Exit Savings Run Rate: $125 million → $150 million
Revenue, profit and margin growth rates
| Metric | YoY | 3Y CAGR | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | +14% | +7% | Stable |
| PAT (Net Profit) | -45% | +5% | Inflection Down |
| OPM | 12.0% | -100 bps | Stable |
The above analysis is parsed from publicly available earnings call transcripts. This is educational research only — not investment advice. Last updated Apr 18, 2026.
Based on publicly available financial data. This is educational research, not investment advice.
Hindalco Industries Ltd's latest quarterly results (Dec 2025) show
Hindalco Industries Ltd's profit is declining with an inflecting downward trend.
Hindalco Industries Ltd's revenue growth trend is stable.
Hindalco Industries Ltd's operating margin is stable.
Hindalco Industries Ltd's long-term compounding rates
Hindalco Industries Ltd's earnings growth is inflecting downward with mixed signals on a sequential basis.
Hindalco Industries Ltd's trailing twelve month (TTM) performance
Hindalco Industries Ltd appears undervalued based on our fair value analysis.
Hindalco Industries Ltd's current PE ratio is 13.5x.
Hindalco Industries Ltd's current PE is 13.5x.
Hindalco Industries Ltd's price-to-book ratio is 1.7x.
Hindalco Industries Ltd is rated Average with a fundamental score of 41.76/100. This score is calculated from objective financial metrics
Hindalco Industries Ltd has a debt-to-equity ratio of N/A.
Hindalco Industries Ltd's return ratios over recent years
Hindalco Industries Ltd's operating cash flow is positive (FY2025).
Hindalco Industries Ltd's current dividend yield is 0.48%.
Hindalco Industries Ltd's shareholding pattern (Mar 2026)
Hindalco Industries Ltd's promoter holding has remained stable recently.
Hindalco Industries Ltd has been outperforming Nifty 500 for 12 consecutive weeks, indicating strong sustained outperformance.
Hindalco Industries Ltd is an established outperformer with 12 weeks of consecutive Nifty 500 outperformance.
Hindalco Industries Ltd has 4 key growth catalysts identified from recent earnings analysis
Hindalco Industries Ltd has 3 key risks worth monitoring
In Q3 FY26, Hindalco Industries Ltd's management highlighted
Hindalco Industries Ltd's management has provided the following forward guidance for Long-term
Hindalco Industries Ltd's most important sub-sector-specific KPIs from the latest concall
Based on quantitative research signals, here is why Hindalco Industries Ltd may be worth studying
Hindalco Industries Ltd investment thesis summary:
Hindalco Industries Ltd's forward outlook based on current data signals
The above FAQs are generated from publicly available earnings data and conference call transcripts. This is educational research only. Sector Alpha is not SEBI registered and does not provide investment advice.
