ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc.

Price story Before the numbers, the tape. A stock price moves through four repeating seasons: a flat base (stage 1), an advance (2), a top (3), a decline (4). Where the price sits in that cycle frames everything below.

ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. trades at $23.9, in a confirmed uptrend and 5 weeks into that stage. That is +6.1% against its own 200-day average. It sits at 76% of a 52-week range of $18 to $26. On relative strength it is currently behind the S&P 500 on a trailing-13-week view (13 weeks and counting).

Today the stock is in a confirmed uptrend — week 5 of stage 2. At $23.9 it trades +6.1% versus its 200-day average and sits at 76% of its 52-week range ($18–$26).

Against the market, two honest reads. Cumulative: over the last 9.8 years the stock moved +41% while the S&P 500 moved +249% — behind the index over the full window. Recent form: on a trailing-13-week view the stock is currently behind (13 weeks and counting; last ahead the week of 2026-05-01) — the ribbon below is that same metric, week by week.

What would end the trend, mechanically: two Friday closes in a row below the 200-day line. That is the exit rule — no debates.

→ The trend is one thing; the bill is another. Are you paying up for it? Next: how the P/E reads against its own history.

Valuation P/E is the price of $1 of annual profit: how many dollars the market pays for each dollar the company earns in a year.

ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. trades at 14.4× P/E, against too little history to rank. This places the multiple against the stock’s own record, and says nothing about what the business is worth.

Today's P/E of 14.4× is against too little history to rank. This is a comparison against the stock's own history — not a claim about what it is worth.

Why the multiple sits where it does: over the past year annual EPS moved +4.6% against a +17.9% price move — the price outran earnings, pushing the multiple UP its own range.

The price move, decomposed: over 3y, of the −5.1%/yr price move, ~+4.4%/yr came from earnings growth and ~−9.5 pp from the multiple (compressing). The split is the honest approximate (price return minus earnings growth); it makes the rally itself visible instead of hiding it behind the percentile.

Put together: the multiple is unremarkable against its own past, so the story rests on the earnings line underneath it, not the multiple.

→ Cheap or dear rides on the earnings. Are they actually growing? Next: the fundamental stage — where the business sits in its arc, and how growth has compounded.

Stage: Consistent Every business sits somewhere on a fundamental arc, and this page names the spot before anything else. The last twelve quarters of revenue, profit and EPS growth — plus the return the business earns on its capital — are read as curves: Deteriorating (the curves are falling), Turning around (a trough has just formed and the last few quarters lift off it), Improving (the climb off the trough is sustained), Consistent (steadily positive with healthy returns), Topping out (still high but decelerating from the peak). When the curves genuinely disagree the read is Mixed; too little history is No read. CAGR (compound annual growth rate) is the smooth yearly pace that turns the starting value into the latest one — the fairest way to compare growth across different time spans. Read the columns together: if the 1-year number towers over the 10-year, recent growth is running hotter than the long-run trend. A dash means that window is not held, or the base year was a loss (where a growth rate is not meaningful).

ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. reads as consistent on its fundamental arc. Consistent — revenue, profit and EPS growth have stayed positive through the window, with ROCE at 15.4% and holding. The read is built from 12 quarters across 4 curves, on full evidence.

Why it matters: steady curves with healthy returns are the compounding setup — the risk is the price, not the business.

→ The stage names the trajectory. Next: the revenue line that produces it, quarter by quarter.

4-Factor Sector Score

No sector-relative score — ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. is not among the largest members shown in this industry comparison for Integrated Freight & Logistics.

The score is a rank WITHIN a peer set: every metric is scored by percentile against the other members. Without the peer set there is no score to state, so none is invented here.

Revenue Revenue is the top line: everything the company billed its customers in the period.

ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. reported $13.3 B of revenue in the Mar 26 quarter, +21.9% year on year. That is the 12th straight quarter of year-on-year growth. Over 4 years it has compounded at 12.7% a year. The last full year, FY25, came in at $49.1 B. The last four reported quarters add to $51.5 B.

ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. reported $13.3 B of revenue in the Mar 26 quarter, +21.9% year on year. That is the 12th straight quarter of year-on-year growth. Over 4 years it has compounded at 12.7% a year. The last full year, FY25, came in at $49.1 B. The last four reported quarters add to $51.5 B.

FY25 revenue came in at $49.1 B (+10.9% on the year), capping 4 years at 12.7% compound. The latest quarter (Mar 26) printed $13.3 B, +21.9% year on year — the 12th consecutive quarter of year-over-year growth.

Pace check: the last four quarters averaged +13.9% growth against the decade's 12.7% — the current year is running faster than its own long-run rate.

Acceleration check: trailing-twelve-month revenue grew +13.8% over the last 4 quarters against +14.3%/yr over the last 8 — stabilising; TTM profit −1.4% vs +4.6%/yr — rolling over.

→ Revenue grew — did margins hold as it scaled? Next: 19.2% this quarter (−2.9 pp YoY).

Operating margin Operating margin is what is left of every $100 of sales after running the business, before interest and tax. It is the cleanest read on pricing power and cost control.

ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc.'s operating margin is 19.2% in the Mar 26 quarter, −2.9 percentage points against the same quarter a year ago. Across 5 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged 18.1% to 26.6%. The current quarter sits inside that band.

ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc.'s operating margin is 19.2% in the Mar 26 quarter, −2.9 percentage points against the same quarter a year ago. Across 5 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged 18.1% to 26.6%. The current quarter sits inside that band.

The latest quarter's operating margin is 19.2%, −2.9 pp against the same quarter a year ago. Across 5 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged 18.1%–26.6%.

🚨 Why the margin moved: operating margin went −2.9 pp year on year while gross margin went −0.3 pp — the loss came mostly below the gross line: operating leverage, with costs spread over a bigger revenue base.

→ Margins slipped — did that reach the bottom line? Next: profit +5.9% in the latest quarter.

Net profit Net profit is what survives every cost, interest and tax — the number EPS, dividends and book value all grow from.

ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. earned $2.2 B of net profit in the Mar 26 quarter, +5.9% year on year. It is the 3rd consecutive quarter of growth. Full-year FY25 profit was $9.2 B. The 4-year compound rate is 18.4%. That is 16.3% of the quarter's revenue. The same quarter a year earlier earned $2.0 B.

ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. earned $2.2 B of net profit in the Mar 26 quarter, +5.9% year on year. It is the 3rd consecutive quarter of growth. Full-year FY25 profit was $9.2 B. The 4-year compound rate is 18.4%. That is 16.3% of the quarter's revenue. The same quarter a year earlier earned $2.0 B.

Mar 26 profit was $2.2 B, +5.9% year on year — the 3rd consecutive quarter of growth. On the full year, FY25 printed $9.2 B (+3.9%), and the 4-year compound rate is 18.4%.

Why profit moved: revenue contributed +21.9% and the margin −2.9 pp — the quarter was revenue-led despite a thinner margin.

Pace comparison, last four quarters: profit −0.6% vs revenue +13.9%. Profit is growing slower than sales — costs are eating the growth before it reaches the bottom line.

→ Profit rose — but did the cash follow? Next: 137% of the last 3 years' profit arrived as cash.

Cash flow — the router The P&L says what was earned; the cash-flow statement says what actually arrived. Operating cash flow (CFO) against profit is the cleanest lie detector in the accounts.

Over the last 3 fiscal years 137% of ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc.'s reported profit arrived as operating cash — the cash follows the profit. In FY25 that was $12.0 B of operating cash against $9.2 B of profit. After $5.2 B of capital spending, $6.8 B was left as free cash.

FY25: operating cash of $12.0 B against reported profit of $9.2 B, leaving free cash of $6.8 B after $5.2 B of capital spending. Across the last 3 fiscal years the conversion rate is 137% of profit.

Cash-flow readings here are annual — that is the resolution our series carries, so this section moves once a year.

Why: conversion is measured cleanly, but the working-capital day-counts behind it sit below what we hold — the move is shown without inventing its driver.

Router verdict: the visible cash user is investment — the next section checks what the spending is buying.

→ So follow the cash to where it goes. Next: $17.0 B of building over 3 years.

Where the cash goes Working capital is the cash tied up between paying suppliers and getting paid: debtor days (customers owe), inventory days (stock waits), and the cash conversion cycle (the whole loop, in days of sales).

ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. does not report the debtor, inventory and payable day-counts a cash cycle is built from, so this section reads the investment side instead. Capital spending ran $17.0 B over the last 3 years. Averaged over those years that is 11.5% of FY25 revenue a year.

Working-capital day-counts are not in our numbers for this stock, so this section reads the investment side — where the cash is being put to work.

On the investment side: capital spending of $17.0 B over the last 3 fiscal years.

The synthesis: the cash is going into capacity, not disappearing into the cycle — the question becomes whether the new capacity earns.

→ Does all this activity actually earn its cost of capital? Next: ROE is 15% and the ROIC − WACC spread is +13.8 pp.

Return on equity Return on equity (ROE) is the profit the business earns on its shareholders’ money. With the full capital-employed split not in our numbers, ROE is the cleanest long ladder we can draw here.

ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. earns a ROE of 14% in FY25. That is up from a trough of 10% in FY21. Return on invested capital clears the cost of that capital by +13.8 percentage points, so growth here adds value rather than only size. The wiring behind it is 18.8% net margin on 0.54× asset turns.

FY25 ROE is 14%, recovered from a FY21 trough of 10% — the full ladder below shows the fall and the climb, undoctored.

Why the return is what it is — the wiring (FY25): 18.8% net margin × 0.54× asset turns × 1.36× balance-sheet leverage ≈ 13.8% on equity. Margin is doing the heavy lifting; leverage is modest — this is an earned return, not a borrowed one.

The capstone test — ROIC − WACC: 16.5% − 2.7% = a +13.8 pp spread. The 2.7% is an estimate of this company's own cost of capital — read the sign and the size of the spread, not the decimals. A spread this wide means every dollar reinvested creates more than a dollar of value — the engine compounds.

→ Returns like these — is the balance sheet borrowing to make them? Next: debt-to-equity is 0.35.

Dividend A dividend is cash paid out per share. Dividend per share is the declared amount for the period; the trailing twelve-month total is the four most recent quarters added together.

ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. paid $10.04 per share over the last four reported quarters, up 1.4% on a year ago. The most recent declaration was $2.69 for Dec 25. Against the current price of $23.9 that is a trailing yield of 41.96%, measured on dividends already paid rather than on a forecast.

ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. paid $10.04 per share over the last four reported quarters, up 1.4% on a year ago. The most recent declaration was $2.69 for Dec 25. Against the current price of $23.9 that is a trailing yield of 41.96%, measured on dividends already paid rather than on a forecast.

ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. paid $10.04 per share across the last four reported quarters, most recently $2.69 for Dec 25. That is up 1.4% against the same quarter a year earlier. Against the current price of $23.9 the trailing twelve months work out to 41.96% — trailing dividends measured against today's price, not a forward estimate.

→ A payout is cash leaving the business. Next: what the balance sheet looks like behind it.

Debt Debt-to-equity says how much of the business is funded by borrowings. Low is the safe corner; the trend matters as much as the level.

ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. carries total debt of $21.8 B against shareholder equity of $62.9 B as of Mar 26, a debt-to-equity of 0.35. On the annual view that ratio went from 0.09 in FY21 to 0.17 in FY25. Read the returns elsewhere on this page with that leverage in mind.

Mar 26: total debt of $21.8 B against shareholder equity of $62.9 B — a debt-to-equity of 0.35. On the annual view, debt-to-equity went from 0.09 (FY21) to 0.17 (FY25). Read the returns on this page with that leverage in mind.

→ Who owns this, and are they adding or leaving? Next: the register.

Ownership There is no quarter-by-quarter holder register to read here, so we read the crowd through short interest — the slice of tradable shares currently sold short, positioned for a fall.

No ownership or positioning reading is held for ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc., so this section names the gap rather than filling it. At typical trading volumes those positions would take about 10.7 days to buy back. There is no quarter-by-quarter holder register to read for this filer, so the crowd is read through short interest instead.

We hold no ownership or positioning reading for this stock, so this section says that plainly.

→ One last check: does the safety math agree? Next: the balance-sheet safety line.

Safety line The Z-score estimates how far a company sits from balance-sheet distress — above roughly 3 is safe, below roughly 1.8 is the danger zone. It was built for manufacturers, so it is not applied to banks and lenders.

ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc.: the Z-score reads 3.58. A Z-score above roughly 3 reads as safe and below roughly 1.8 as the distress zone, so this sits well clear of distress. It is a distance-to-distress estimate from the balance sheet, not a forecast of failure.

Why it matters: a Z-score of 3.58 sits well clear of the distress zone — the balance sheet is not the risk here.

The safety line in one sentence: the Z-score reads 3.58.

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