Vardhman Special Steels Ltd

Price story Before the numbers, the tape. A stock price moves through four repeating seasons: a flat base (stage 1), an advance (2), a top (3), a decline (4). Where the price sits in that cycle frames everything below.

Vardhman Special Steels Ltd trades at ₹298, in a confirmed uptrend and 7 weeks into that stage. That is +11.6% against its own 200-day average. It sits at 96% of a 52-week range of ₹219 to ₹302. On relative strength it has been ahead of the NIFTY 500 on a trailing-13-week view for 1 straight week.

Today the stock is in a confirmed uptrend — week 7 of stage 2, confirmed. At ₹298 it trades +11.6% versus its 200-day average and sits at 96% of its 52-week range (₹219–₹302).

Against the market, two honest reads. Cumulative: over the last 10.3 years the stock moved +1,471% while the NIFTY 500 moved +274% — ahead of the index over the full window. Recent form: on a trailing-13-week view the stock has been ahead for 1 straight week — the ribbon below is that same metric, week by week.

What would end the trend, mechanically: two Friday closes in a row below the 200-day line. That is the exit rule — no debates.

→ The trend is one thing; the bill is another. Are you paying up for it? Next: the P/E sits at the 100th percentile of its own range.

Valuation P/E is the price of ₹1 of annual profit: how many rupees the market pays for each rupee the company earns in a year.

Vardhman Special Steels Ltd trades at 31.1× P/E, about the priciest it has ever traded. Its long-run median P/E is 23.9×, measured across 2.2 years of weekly readings. This places the multiple against the stock’s own record, and says nothing about what the business is worth.

Today's P/E of 31.1× is about the priciest it has ever traded, against a long-run median of 23.9× measured over 2.2 years of weekly readings. This is a comparison against the stock's own history — not a claim about what it is worth.

Why the multiple sits where it does: over the past year annual EPS moved +1.2% against a +16.1% price move — the price outran earnings, pushing the multiple UP its own range.

Put together: the multiple is full against its own past, so the story rests on the earnings line underneath it, not the multiple.

→ Cheap or dear rides on the earnings. Are they actually growing? Next: the fundamental stage — where the business sits in its arc, and how growth has compounded.

Stage: Topping out Every business sits somewhere on a fundamental arc, and this page names the spot before anything else. The last twelve quarters of revenue, profit and EPS growth — plus the return the business earns on its capital — are read as curves: Deteriorating (the curves are falling), Turning around (a trough has just formed and the last few quarters lift off it), Improving (the climb off the trough is sustained), Consistent (steadily positive with healthy returns), Topping out (still high but decelerating from the peak). When the curves genuinely disagree the read is Mixed; too little history is No read. CAGR (compound annual growth rate) is the smooth yearly pace that turns the starting value into the latest one — the fairest way to compare growth across different time spans. Read the columns together: if the 1-year number towers over the 10-year, recent growth is running hotter than the long-run trend. A dash means that window is not held, or the base year was a loss (where a growth rate is not meaningful).

Vardhman Special Steels Ltd reads as topping out on its fundamental arc. Topping out — profit and EPS growth have decelerated hard (profit growth +35.4% at its peak → +1.1% latest) while ROCE still reads 18.1%. The read is built from 12 quarters across 4 curves, on full evidence.

Why it matters: decelerating from a peak is where good stories quietly end — the multiple usually notices late.

→ The stage names the trajectory. Next: the revenue line that produces it, quarter by quarter.

4-Factor Sector Score

56.3/100 — rank 7 of 17 in Steel Products · 93% evidence confidence

Vardhman Special Steels Ltd scores 56.3 out of 100 against the 17 companies it is compared with in Steel Products, ranking 7. Cheap but unconfirmed: require improving earnings before treating the valuation as an opportunity.

The four contributions add to the total exactly: 15.2 + 15.8 + 15 + 10.3 = 56.3. This is the SAME number shown on the sector comparison — it is computed once, for the whole peer set, and read here.

What would change it: The read weakens if profit growth turns negative or margin improvement reverses while sector-relative strength deteriorates.

Revenue Revenue is the top line: everything the company billed its customers in the period.

Vardhman Special Steels Ltd reported ₹428 Cr of revenue in the Mar 25 quarter, −2.5% year on year. Over 1 years it has compounded at 6.2% a year. The last full year, FY25, came in at ₹1,764 Cr. The last four reported quarters add to ₹1,765 Cr.

Vardhman Special Steels Ltd reported ₹428 Cr of revenue in the Mar 25 quarter, −2.5% year on year. Over 1 years it has compounded at 6.2% a year. The last full year, FY25, came in at ₹1,764 Cr. The last four reported quarters add to ₹1,765 Cr.

FY25 revenue came in at ₹1,764 Cr (+6.2% on the year), capping 1 years at 6.2% compound. The latest quarter (Mar 25) printed ₹428 Cr, −2.5% year on year.

Pace check: the last four quarters averaged +6.5% growth against the decade's 6.2% — the current year is running in line with its own long-run rate.

Acceleration check: trailing-twelve-month revenue grew +6.3% over the last 4 quarters against +0.9%/yr over the last 8 — accelerating; TTM profit +1.1% vs −3.6%/yr — accelerating.

→ Revenue slipped — did margins hold as it scaled? Next: 7.0% this quarter (−4.0 pp YoY).

Operating margin Operating margin is what is left of every ₹100 of sales after running the business, before interest and tax. It is the cleanest read on pricing power and cost control.

Vardhman Special Steels Ltd's operating margin is 7.0% in the Mar 25 quarter, −4.0 percentage points against the same quarter a year ago.

Vardhman Special Steels Ltd's operating margin is 7.0% in the Mar 25 quarter, −4.0 percentage points against the same quarter a year ago.

The latest quarter's operating margin is 7.0%, −4.0 pp against the same quarter a year ago. Across 2 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged 8.0%–9.0%.

🚨 Why the margin moved: operating margin went −3.8 pp year on year while gross margin went −4.3 pp — the loss came mostly from the gross line: input costs and pricing.

→ Margins slipped — did that reach the bottom line? Next: profit −39.4% in the latest quarter.

Net profit Net profit is what survives every cost, interest and tax — the number EPS, dividends and book value all grow from.

Vardhman Special Steels Ltd earned ₹20.0 Cr of net profit in the Mar 25 quarter, −39.4% year on year. Full-year FY25 profit was ₹93.0 Cr. The 1-year compound rate is 1.1%. That is 4.7% of the quarter's revenue. The same quarter a year earlier earned ₹33.0 Cr.

Vardhman Special Steels Ltd earned ₹20.0 Cr of net profit in the Mar 25 quarter, −39.4% year on year. Full-year FY25 profit was ₹93.0 Cr. The 1-year compound rate is 1.1%. That is 4.7% of the quarter's revenue. The same quarter a year earlier earned ₹33.0 Cr.

Mar 25 profit was ₹20.0 Cr, −39.4% year on year. On the full year, FY25 printed ₹93.0 Cr (+1.1%), and the 1-year compound rate is 1.1%.

🚨 Why profit moved: revenue contributed −2.5% and the margin −4.0 pp — the quarter was revenue-led despite a thinner margin.

Pace comparison, last four quarters: profit +9.3% vs revenue +6.5%. Profit and revenue are moving roughly in step.

→ Profit rose — but did the cash follow? Next: 145% of the last 2 years' profit arrived as cash.

Cash flow — the router The P&L says what was earned; the cash-flow statement says what actually arrived. Operating cash flow (CFO) against profit is the cleanest lie detector in the accounts.

Over the last 2 fiscal years 145% of Vardhman Special Steels Ltd's reported profit arrived as operating cash — the cash follows the profit. In FY25 that was ₹127 Cr of operating cash against ₹93.0 Cr of profit. After ₹133 Cr of capital spending, ₹−6.0 Cr was left as free cash.

FY25: operating cash of ₹127 Cr against reported profit of ₹93.0 Cr, leaving free cash of ₹−6.0 Cr after ₹133 Cr of capital spending. Across the last 2 fiscal years the conversion rate is 145% of profit.

Cash-flow readings here are annual — that is the resolution our series carries, so this section moves once a year.

Why conversion sits at 145%: the cash cycle held roughly steady between FY24 and FY25 — so conversion tracks profitability rather than the cycle.

Router verdict: the bigger cash user is investment — capital spending ran 4.0× depreciation over three years, so the next section's job is to check what that build-out is buying.

→ So follow the cash to where it goes. Next: ₹133 Cr of building over 1 years.

Where the cash goes Working capital is the cash tied up between paying suppliers and getting paid: debtor days (customers owe), inventory days (stock waits), and the cash conversion cycle (the whole loop, in days of sales).

Vardhman Special Steels Ltd's cash conversion cycle runs 120 days in FY25, down from 123 days in FY24. Capital spending ran ₹133 Cr over the last 1 years. At FY25 sales of ₹1,764 Cr each day of that cycle holds about ₹4.8 Cr, so roughly ₹580 Cr sits inside the business at any moment.

FY25: debtors at 54 days, inventory at 113 days — roughly 3.7 months of stock waiting to sell; that is where the cash sits while it waits — for a full cycle of 120 days, tighter than FY24's 123.

The full loop: cash goes out to suppliers and production on day 0; stock waits 113 days to sell; customers pay about 54 days after that; and suppliers themselves are paid at 47 days — netting out to the 120-day cycle.

In money terms: at FY25 sales of ₹1,764 Cr, each day of the cycle holds about ₹4.8 Cr — so the 120-day loop keeps roughly ₹580 Cr sitting inside the business at any moment.

On the investment side: capital spending of ₹133 Cr over the last 1 fiscal years against ₹33.0 Cr of depreciation — the company is building well ahead of wear-and-tear. Capital work-in-progress stands at ₹117 Cr (FY25) — capacity paid for but not yet earning.

The synthesis: the cash is going into capacity, not disappearing into the cycle — the question becomes whether the new capacity earns.

→ Does all this activity actually earn its cost of capital? Next: ROCE is 17% and the ROIC − WACC spread is +1.1 pp.

Return on capital Return on capital employed (ROCE) is the profit the whole business earns on all the money in it — equity and debt together. It is the single best test of whether growth creates value or just size.

Vardhman Special Steels Ltd earns a ROCE of 17% in FY25. Return on invested capital clears the cost of that capital by +1.1 percentage points, so growth here adds value rather than only size. The wiring behind it is 5.3% net margin on 1.55× asset turns.

FY25 ROCE is 17%.

Why the return is what it is — the wiring (FY25): 5.3% net margin × 1.55× asset turns × 1.42× balance-sheet leverage ≈ 11.7% on equity. Margin does its share; leverage is modest — this is an earned return, not a borrowed one.

The capstone test — ROIC − WACC: 13.1% − 12.0% = a +1.1 pp spread. The 12.0% is a standing assumption for the cost of capital in India, not a per-stock estimate — read the sign and the size of the spread, not the decimals. Positive but thin — value creation with little room for error.

→ Returns like these — is the balance sheet borrowing to make them? Next: debt-to-equity is 0.15.

Debt Debt-to-equity says how much of the business is funded by borrowings. Low is the safe corner; the trend matters as much as the level.

Vardhman Special Steels Ltd carries total debt of ₹93.0 Cr against shareholder equity of ₹1,277 Cr as of Jun 26, a debt-to-equity of 0.07 — effectively unlevered. On the annual view that ratio went from 0.29 in FY22 to 0.07 in FY26. The returns elsewhere on this page are therefore earned rather than borrowed.

Jun 26: total debt of ₹93.0 Cr against shareholder equity of ₹1,277 Cr — a debt-to-equity of 0.07. On the annual view, debt-to-equity went from 0.29 (FY22) to 0.07 (FY26). The returns on this page are earned, not borrowed.

→ Who owns this, and are they adding or leaving? Next: Promoters cut 9.5 points over 8 quarters.

Ownership Who owns the stock, quarter by quarter: promoters (the controlling owners), foreign and domestic institutions, and the public. Steady accumulation by people close to the numbers is a signal; a quiet register is also an answer.

Promoters cut 9.5 points of Vardhman Special Steels Ltd over 8 quarters, the biggest move on the register. That takes promoters to 51.1% of the company. Foreign institutions moved −0.1 points over the same window, to 0.6%. The register is read on the four disclosed classes only; nothing is inferred between filings.

The register over the last two years — Promoters: −9.5 points over 8 quarters to 51.1%; Foreign institutions: −0.1 points over 8 quarters to 0.6%; Domestic institutions: +0.1 points over 8 quarters to 3.3%.

🚨 Why the register moved: promoters drove it (−9.5 points) — distribution into the market’s bid.

→ One last check: does the safety math agree? Next: the balance-sheet safety line.

Safety line The Z-score estimates how far a company sits from balance-sheet distress — above roughly 3 is safe, below roughly 1.8 is the danger zone. It was built for manufacturers, so it is not applied to banks and lenders.

Vardhman Special Steels Ltd: the Z-score is not available for this stock, so we say so rather than invent one. It is a distance-to-distress estimate from the balance sheet, not a forecast of failure. The debt, cash-flow and return sections above carry the balance-sheet evidence this page does hold, and each of them states its own reporting date.

The safety line in one sentence: the Z-score is not available for this stock, so we say so rather than invent one.

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