VRL Logistics Ltd

Price story Before the numbers, the tape. A stock price moves through four repeating seasons: a flat base (stage 1), an advance (2), a top (3), a decline (4). Where the price sits in that cycle frames everything below.

VRL Logistics Ltd trades at ₹232, in a downtrend and 13 weeks into that stage. That is −9.2% against its own 200-day average. It sits at 3% of a 52-week range of ₹230 to ₹291. On relative strength it is currently behind the NIFTY 500 on a trailing-13-week view (7 weeks and counting).

Today the stock is in a downtrend — week 13 of stage 4, confirmed. At ₹232 it trades −9.2% versus its 200-day average and sits at 3% of its 52-week range (₹230–₹291).

Against the market, two honest reads. Cumulative: over the last 10.4 years the stock moved +52% while the NIFTY 500 moved +280% — behind the index over the full window. Recent form: on a trailing-13-week view the stock is currently behind (7 weeks and counting; last ahead the week of 2026-06-17) — the ribbon below is that same metric, week by week.

What would end the trend, mechanically: two Friday closes in a row below the 200-day line. That is the exit rule — no debates.

→ The trend is one thing; the bill is another. Are you paying up for it? Next: the P/E sits at the 7th percentile of its own range.

Valuation P/E is the price of ₹1 of annual profit: how many rupees the market pays for each rupee the company earns in a year.

VRL Logistics Ltd trades at 17.6× P/E, near the bottom of its own range — cheaper only 7% of the time. Its long-run median P/E is 32.3×, measured across 10.4 years of weekly readings. This places the multiple against the stock’s own record, and says nothing about what the business is worth.

Today's P/E of 17.6× is near the bottom of its own range — cheaper only 7% of the time, against a long-run median of 32.3× measured over 10.4 years of weekly readings. This is a comparison against the stock's own history — not a claim about what it is worth.

One caveat before moving on: margins are the best this company has ever printed — cheap against its own history on record margins is not the same thing as cheap. If profitability mean-reverts, today's multiple is higher than it looks.

Why the multiple sits where it does: over the past year annual EPS moved +29.4% against a −27.0% price move — earnings outran the price, pushing the multiple DOWN its own range.

The price move, decomposed: over 5y, of the +8.3%/yr price move, ~+40.5%/yr came from earnings growth and ~−32.2 pp from the multiple (compressing); over 10y, of the +4.0%/yr price move, ~+10.3%/yr came from earnings growth and ~−6.3 pp from the multiple (compressing). The split is the honest approximate (price return minus earnings growth); it makes the rally itself visible instead of hiding it behind the percentile.

Put together: the multiple is low against its own past, so the story rests on the earnings line underneath it, not the multiple.

→ Cheap or dear rides on the earnings. Are they actually growing? Next: the fundamental stage — where the business sits in its arc, and how growth has compounded.

Stage: Mixed Every business sits somewhere on a fundamental arc, and this page names the spot before anything else. The last twelve quarters of revenue, profit and EPS growth — plus the return the business earns on its capital — are read as curves: Deteriorating (the curves are falling), Turning around (a trough has just formed and the last few quarters lift off it), Improving (the climb off the trough is sustained), Consistent (steadily positive with healthy returns), Topping out (still high but decelerating from the peak). When the curves genuinely disagree the read is Mixed; too little history is No read. CAGR (compound annual growth rate) is the smooth yearly pace that turns the starting value into the latest one — the fairest way to compare growth across different time spans. Read the columns together: if the 1-year number towers over the 10-year, recent growth is running hotter than the long-run trend. A dash means that window is not held, or the base year was a loss (where a growth rate is not meaningful).

VRL Logistics Ltd reads as mixed on its fundamental arc. Mixed — growth is normalizing off a hyper-growth base: profit growth has eased from +174.1% at its peak to +30.2% but is still expanding, ROCE holding at 18.8%. The read is built from 12 quarters across 4 curves, on full evidence.

Why it matters: when the curves disagree, the per-curve reads above matter more than any single verdict.

→ The stage names the trajectory. Next: the revenue line that produces it, quarter by quarter.

4-Factor Sector Score

54.6/100 — rank 1 of 8 in Logistics - Warehousing/Supply Chain · 96% evidence confidence

VRL Logistics Ltd scores 54.6 out of 100 against the 8 companies it is compared with in Logistics - Warehousing/Supply Chain, ranking 1. Balanced evidence: keep at normal research priority and require another comparable period before raising conviction.

The four contributions add to the total exactly: 20.5 + 18.4 + 11.4 + 4.3 = 54.6. This is the SAME number shown on the sector comparison — it is computed once, for the whole peer set, and read here.

What would change it: The read weakens if profit growth turns negative or margin improvement reverses while sector-relative strength deteriorates.

Revenue Revenue is the top line: everything the company billed its customers in the period.

VRL Logistics Ltd reported ₹853 Cr of revenue in the Mar 26 quarter, +5.4% year on year. That is the 2nd straight quarter of year-on-year growth. Over 10 years it has compounded at 6.5% a year. The last full year, FY26, came in at ₹3,221 Cr. The last four reported quarters add to ₹3,221 Cr.

VRL Logistics Ltd reported ₹853 Cr of revenue in the Mar 26 quarter, +5.4% year on year. That is the 2nd straight quarter of year-on-year growth. Over 10 years it has compounded at 6.5% a year. The last full year, FY26, came in at ₹3,221 Cr. The last four reported quarters add to ₹3,221 Cr.

FY26 revenue came in at ₹3,221 Cr (+1.9% on the year), capping 10 years at 6.5% compound. The latest quarter (Mar 26) printed ₹853 Cr, +5.4% year on year — the 2nd consecutive quarter of year-over-year growth.

Pace check: the last four quarters averaged +1.9% growth against the decade's 6.5% — the current year is running slower than its own long-run rate.

Acceleration check: trailing-twelve-month revenue grew +1.9% over the last 4 quarters against +5.6%/yr over the last 8 — rolling over; TTM profit +30.2% vs +62.3%/yr — rolling over.

→ Revenue grew — did margins hold as it scaled? Next: 21.0% this quarter (−2.0 pp YoY).

Operating margin Operating margin is what is left of every ₹100 of sales after running the business, before interest and tax. It is the cleanest read on pricing power and cost control.

VRL Logistics Ltd's operating margin is 21.0% in the Mar 26 quarter, −2.0 percentage points against the same quarter a year ago. That is the widest this company has ever printed on a full-year basis. Across 13 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged 12.0% to 20.0%. The current quarter is running above every full year in that window.

VRL Logistics Ltd's operating margin is 21.0% in the Mar 26 quarter, −2.0 percentage points against the same quarter a year ago. That is the widest this company has ever printed on a full-year basis. Across 13 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged 12.0% to 20.0%. The current quarter is running above every full year in that window.

The latest quarter's operating margin is 21.0%, −2.0 pp against the same quarter a year ago. Across 13 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged 12.0%–20.0%, and FY26's 20.0% is the top of that band — a record year.

🚨 Why the margin moved: operating margin went −2.3 pp year on year while gross margin went +0.0 pp — the loss came mostly below the gross line: operating leverage, with costs spread over a bigger revenue base.

Worth repeating from the valuation section: cheap against its own history on record margins is not the same thing as cheap — a record margin flatters every ratio built on top of it.

→ Margins slipped — did that reach the bottom line? Next: profit −2.7% in the latest quarter.

Net profit Net profit is what survives every cost, interest and tax — the number EPS, dividends and book value all grow from.

VRL Logistics Ltd earned ₹72.0 Cr of net profit in the Mar 26 quarter, −2.7% year on year. Full-year FY26 profit was ₹237 Cr. The 10-year compound rate is 8.6%. That is 8.4% of the quarter's revenue. The same quarter a year earlier earned ₹74.0 Cr.

VRL Logistics Ltd earned ₹72.0 Cr of net profit in the Mar 26 quarter, −2.7% year on year. Full-year FY26 profit was ₹237 Cr. The 10-year compound rate is 8.6%. That is 8.4% of the quarter's revenue. The same quarter a year earlier earned ₹74.0 Cr.

Mar 26 profit was ₹72.0 Cr, −2.7% year on year. On the full year, FY26 printed ₹237 Cr (+29.5%), and the 10-year compound rate is 8.6%.

🚨 Why profit moved: revenue contributed +5.4% and the margin −2.0 pp — the quarter was revenue-led despite a thinner margin.

Pace comparison, last four quarters: profit +82.8% vs revenue +1.9%. Profit is growing faster than sales — fixed costs are being spread over a bigger base, and each extra rupee of revenue drops more to the bottom line.

→ Profit rose — but did the cash follow? Next: 321% of the last 3 years' profit arrived as cash.

Cash flow — the router The P&L says what was earned; the cash-flow statement says what actually arrived. Operating cash flow (CFO) against profit is the cleanest lie detector in the accounts.

Over the last 3 fiscal years 321% of VRL Logistics Ltd's reported profit arrived as operating cash — the cash follows the profit. In FY26 that was ₹654 Cr of operating cash against ₹237 Cr of profit. After ₹330 Cr of capital spending, ₹324 Cr was left as free cash.

FY26: operating cash of ₹654 Cr against reported profit of ₹237 Cr, leaving free cash of ₹324 Cr after ₹330 Cr of capital spending. Across the last 3 fiscal years the conversion rate is 321% of profit.

Cash-flow readings here are annual — that is the resolution our series carries, so this section moves once a year.

Why conversion sits at 321%: the cash cycle held roughly steady between FY21 and FY26 — so conversion tracks profitability rather than the cycle.

Router verdict: the bigger cash user is investment — capital spending ran 2.1× depreciation over three years, so the next section's job is to check what that build-out is buying.

→ So follow the cash to where it goes. Next: ₹1,538 Cr of building over 3 years.

Where the cash goes Working capital is the cash tied up between paying suppliers and getting paid: debtor days (customers owe), inventory days (stock waits), and the cash conversion cycle (the whole loop, in days of sales).

VRL Logistics Ltd's cash conversion cycle runs 10 days in FY26, down from 13 days in FY21. Capital spending ran ₹1,538 Cr over the last 3 years. At FY26 sales of ₹3,221 Cr each day of that cycle holds about ₹8.8 Cr, so roughly ₹88.0 Cr sits inside the business at any moment.

FY26: debtors at 10 days (an asset-light business — no inventory to speak of) — for a full cycle of 10 days, tighter than FY21's 13.

In money terms: at FY26 sales of ₹3,221 Cr, each day of the cycle holds about ₹8.8 Cr — so the 10-day loop keeps roughly ₹88.0 Cr sitting inside the business at any moment.

On the investment side: capital spending of ₹1,538 Cr over the last 3 fiscal years against ₹731 Cr of depreciation — the company is building well ahead of wear-and-tear. Capital work-in-progress stands at ₹22.0 Cr (FY26) — capacity paid for but not yet earning.

The synthesis: the cash is going into capacity, not disappearing into the cycle — the question becomes whether the new capacity earns.

→ Does all this activity actually earn its cost of capital? Next: ROCE is 18% and the ROIC − WACC spread is +2.0 pp.

Return on capital Return on capital employed (ROCE) is the profit the whole business earns on all the money in it — equity and debt together. It is the single best test of whether growth creates value or just size.

VRL Logistics Ltd earns a ROCE of 18% in FY26. That is up from a trough of 10% in FY21. Return on invested capital clears the cost of that capital by +2.0 percentage points, so growth here adds value rather than only size. The wiring behind it is 7.4% net margin on 1.24× asset turns.

FY26 ROCE is 18%, recovered from a FY21 trough of 10% — the full ladder below shows the fall and the climb, undoctored.

Why the return is what it is — the wiring (FY26): 7.4% net margin × 1.24× asset turns × 2.28× balance-sheet leverage ≈ 20.9% on equity. Margin does its share; leverage is a meaningful part of the equation.

The capstone test — ROIC − WACC: 14.0% − 12.0% = a +2.0 pp spread. The 12.0% is a standing assumption for the cost of capital in India, not a per-stock estimate — read the sign and the size of the spread, not the decimals. Positive but thin — value creation with little room for error.

→ Returns like these — is the balance sheet borrowing to make them? Next: debt-to-equity is 1.01.

Debt Debt-to-equity says how much of the business is funded by borrowings. Low is the safe corner; the trend matters as much as the level.

VRL Logistics Ltd carries total debt of ₹1,154 Cr against shareholder equity of ₹1,142 Cr as of Mar 26, a debt-to-equity of 1.01. On the annual view that ratio went from 0.82 in FY22 to 1.01 in FY26. Read the returns elsewhere on this page with that leverage in mind.

Mar 26: total debt of ₹1,154 Cr against shareholder equity of ₹1,142 Cr — a debt-to-equity of 1.01. On the annual view, debt-to-equity went from 0.82 (FY22) to 1.01 (FY26). Read the returns on this page with that leverage in mind.

→ Who owns this, and are they adding or leaving? Next: Foreign institutions cut 1.1 points over 8 quarters.

Ownership Who owns the stock, quarter by quarter: promoters (the controlling owners), foreign and domestic institutions, and the public. Steady accumulation by people close to the numbers is a signal; a quiet register is also an answer.

Foreign institutions cut 1.1 points of VRL Logistics Ltd over 8 quarters, the biggest move on the register. That takes foreign institutions to 2.7% of the company. Domestic institutions moved −0.7 points over the same window, to 24.9%. The register is read on the four disclosed classes only; nothing is inferred between filings.

The register over the last two years — Foreign institutions: −1.1 points over 8 quarters to 2.7%; Domestic institutions: −0.7 points over 8 quarters to 24.9%; Promoters: +0.0 points over 8 quarters to 60.2%.

🚨 Why the register moved: foreign institutions drove it (−1.1 points), alongside domestic institutions (−0.7 points) — distribution into the market’s bid.

→ One last check: does the safety math agree? Next: the balance-sheet safety line.

Safety line The Z-score estimates how far a company sits from balance-sheet distress — above roughly 3 is safe, below roughly 1.8 is the danger zone. It was built for manufacturers, so it is not applied to banks and lenders.

VRL Logistics Ltd: the Z-score reads 4.15. A Z-score above roughly 3 reads as safe and below roughly 1.8 as the distress zone, so this sits well clear of distress. It is a distance-to-distress estimate from the balance sheet, not a forecast of failure.

Why it matters: a Z-score of 4.15 sits well clear of the distress zone — the balance sheet is not the risk here.

The safety line in one sentence: the Z-score reads 4.15.

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