TCI Express Ltd

Price story Before the numbers, the tape. A stock price moves through four repeating seasons: a flat base (stage 1), an advance (2), a top (3), a decline (4). Where the price sits in that cycle frames everything below.

TCI Express Ltd trades at ₹581, in a downtrend and 180 weeks into that stage. That is +1.4% against its own 200-day average. It sits at 44% of a 52-week range of ₹463 to ₹733. On relative strength it has been ahead of the NIFTY 500 on a trailing-13-week view for 2 straight weeks.

Today the stock is in a downtrend — week 180 of stage 4, confirmed. At ₹581 it trades +1.4% versus its 200-day average and sits at 44% of its 52-week range (₹463–₹733).

Against the market, two honest reads. Cumulative: over the last 9.6 years the stock moved +68% while the NIFTY 500 moved +238% — behind the index over the full window. Recent form: on a trailing-13-week view the stock has been ahead for 2 straight weeks — the ribbon below is that same metric, week by week.

What would end the trend, mechanically: two Friday closes in a row below the 200-day line. That is the exit rule — no debates.

→ The trend is one thing; the bill is another. Are you paying up for it? Next: the P/E sits at the 21st percentile of its own range.

Valuation P/E is the price of ₹1 of annual profit: how many rupees the market pays for each rupee the company earns in a year.

TCI Express Ltd trades at 26.1× P/E, near the bottom of its own range — cheaper only 21% of the time. Its long-run median P/E is 31.1×, measured across 3.2 years of weekly readings. This places the multiple against the stock’s own record, and says nothing about what the business is worth.

Today's P/E of 26.1× is near the bottom of its own range — cheaper only 21% of the time, against a long-run median of 31.1× measured over 3.2 years of weekly readings. This is a comparison against the stock's own history — not a claim about what it is worth.

Why the multiple sits where it does: over the past year annual EPS moved −5.2% against a −21.7% price move — earnings outran the price, pushing the multiple DOWN its own range.

The price move, decomposed: over 3y, of the −27.7%/yr price move, ~−16.1%/yr came from earnings growth and ~−11.6 pp from the multiple (compressing). The split is the honest approximate (price return minus earnings growth); it makes the rally itself visible instead of hiding it behind the percentile.

Put together: the multiple is low against its own past, so the story rests on the earnings line underneath it, not the multiple.

The PEG ratio and its quarterly curve, which only the second data source carries, are not drawn on this page: its two data sources do not share enough overlapping reported history to be compared. A figure nobody could check is not used to price growth — the gap is a decision, not missing data.

→ Cheap or dear rides on the earnings. Are they actually growing? Next: the fundamental stage — where the business sits in its arc, and how growth has compounded.

Stage: Turning around Every business sits somewhere on a fundamental arc, and this page names the spot before anything else. The last twelve quarters of revenue, profit and EPS growth — plus the return the business earns on its capital — are read as curves: Deteriorating (the curves are falling), Turning around (a trough has just formed and the last few quarters lift off it), Improving (the climb off the trough is sustained), Consistent (steadily positive with healthy returns), Topping out (still high but decelerating from the peak). When the curves genuinely disagree the read is Mixed; too little history is No read. CAGR (compound annual growth rate) is the smooth yearly pace that turns the starting value into the latest one — the fairest way to compare growth across different time spans. Read the columns together: if the 1-year number towers over the 10-year, recent growth is running hotter than the long-run trend. A dash means that window is not held, or the base year was a loss (where a growth rate is not meaningful).

TCI Express Ltd reads as turning around on its fundamental arc. Turning around — profit growth swung from −40.6% at the trough to −15.8% off a 4-quarter-old trough (single-quarter readings), ROCE slipping at 14.0%. The read is built from 9 quarters across 3 curves, on partial evidence.

Why it matters: growth inflections are where re-ratings start — the curves say a turn is forming, so the question becomes whether the next quarters confirm it.

Return readings here are annual, not quarterly — read as level and direction only; they can confirm the growth curves but never drive the stage on their own.

A partial read: at least one curve is short, or the returns curve is not the computed quarterly series — hold the stage word a little more loosely.

→ The stage names the trajectory. Next: the revenue line that produces it, quarter by quarter.

4-Factor Sector Score

50.5/100 — rank 3 of 8 in Logistics - Warehousing/Supply Chain · 77% evidence confidence

TCI Express Ltd scores 50.5 out of 100 against the 8 companies it is compared with in Logistics - Warehousing/Supply Chain, ranking 3. Cheap but unconfirmed: require improving earnings before treating the valuation as an opportunity.

The four contributions add to the total exactly: 14.1 + 16.6 + 14.1 + 5.7 = 50.5. This is the SAME number shown on the sector comparison — it is computed once, for the whole peer set, and read here.

What would change it: The read weakens if profit growth turns negative or margin improvement reverses while sector-relative strength deteriorates.

Revenue Revenue is the top line: everything the company billed its customers in the period.

TCI Express Ltd reported ₹328 Cr of revenue in the Mar 26 quarter, +6.8% year on year. That is the 2nd straight quarter of year-on-year growth. Over 3 years it has compounded at −0.1% a year. The last full year, FY26, came in at ₹1,237 Cr. The last four reported quarters add to ₹1,238 Cr.

TCI Express Ltd reported ₹328 Cr of revenue in the Mar 26 quarter, +6.8% year on year. That is the 2nd straight quarter of year-on-year growth. Over 3 years it has compounded at −0.1% a year. The last full year, FY26, came in at ₹1,237 Cr. The last four reported quarters add to ₹1,238 Cr.

FY26 revenue came in at ₹1,237 Cr (+2.4% on the year), capping 3 years at −0.1% compound. The latest quarter (Mar 26) printed ₹328 Cr, +6.8% year on year — the 2nd consecutive quarter of year-over-year growth.

Pace check: the last four quarters averaged +2.5% growth against the decade's −0.1% — the current year is running faster than its own long-run rate.

Acceleration check: trailing-twelve-month revenue grew +2.5% over the last 4 quarters against −0.6%/yr over the last 8 — accelerating; TTM profit −4.7% vs −21.7%/yr — accelerating.

→ Revenue grew — did margins hold as it scaled? Next: 10.0% this quarter (+1.0 pp YoY).

Operating margin Operating margin is what is left of every ₹100 of sales after running the business, before interest and tax. It is the cleanest read on pricing power and cost control.

TCI Express Ltd's operating margin is 10.0% in the Mar 26 quarter, +1.0 percentage points against the same quarter a year ago. Across 4 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged 10.0% to 16.0%. The current quarter sits inside that band.

TCI Express Ltd's operating margin is 10.0% in the Mar 26 quarter, +1.0 percentage points against the same quarter a year ago. Across 4 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged 10.0% to 16.0%. The current quarter sits inside that band.

The latest quarter's operating margin is 10.0%, +1.0 pp against the same quarter a year ago. Across 4 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged 10.0%–16.0%.

Why the margin moved: operating margin went +1.1 pp year on year while gross margin went +0.0 pp — the gain came mostly below the gross line: operating leverage, with costs spread over a bigger revenue base.

→ Margins held — did that reach the bottom line? Next: profit −15.8% in the latest quarter.

Net profit Net profit is what survives every cost, interest and tax — the number EPS, dividends and book value all grow from.

TCI Express Ltd earned ₹16.0 Cr of net profit in the Mar 26 quarter, −15.8% year on year. Full-year FY26 profit was ₹81.0 Cr. The 3-year compound rate is −16.5%. That is 4.9% of the quarter's revenue. The same quarter a year earlier earned ₹19.0 Cr.

TCI Express Ltd earned ₹16.0 Cr of net profit in the Mar 26 quarter, −15.8% year on year. Full-year FY26 profit was ₹81.0 Cr. The 3-year compound rate is −16.5%. That is 4.9% of the quarter's revenue. The same quarter a year earlier earned ₹19.0 Cr.

Mar 26 profit was ₹16.0 Cr, −15.8% year on year. On the full year, FY26 printed ₹81.0 Cr (−5.8%), and the 3-year compound rate is −16.5%.

🚨 Why profit moved: revenue contributed +6.8% and the margin +1.0 pp — the quarter was revenue-led, with the margin roughly flat.

Pace comparison, last four quarters: profit −4.4% vs revenue +2.5%. Profit is growing slower than sales — costs are eating the growth before it reaches the bottom line.

→ Profit rose — but did the cash follow? Next: 119% of the last 3 years' profit arrived as cash.

Cash flow — the router The P&L says what was earned; the cash-flow statement says what actually arrived. Operating cash flow (CFO) against profit is the cleanest lie detector in the accounts.

Over the last 3 fiscal years 119% of TCI Express Ltd's reported profit arrived as operating cash — the cash follows the profit. In FY26 that was ₹101 Cr of operating cash against ₹81.0 Cr of profit. After ₹125 Cr of capital spending, ₹−24.0 Cr was left as free cash.

FY26: operating cash of ₹101 Cr against reported profit of ₹81.0 Cr, leaving free cash of ₹−24.0 Cr after ₹125 Cr of capital spending. Across the last 3 fiscal years the conversion rate is 119% of profit.

Cash-flow readings here are annual — that is the resolution our series carries, so this section moves once a year.

Why conversion sits at 119%: the cash cycle held roughly steady between FY23 and FY26 — so conversion tracks profitability rather than the cycle.

Router verdict: the bigger cash user is investment — capital spending ran 3.1× depreciation over three years, so the next section's job is to check what that build-out is buying.

→ So follow the cash to where it goes. Next: ₹208 Cr of building over 3 years.

Where the cash goes Working capital is the cash tied up between paying suppliers and getting paid: debtor days (customers owe), inventory days (stock waits), and the cash conversion cycle (the whole loop, in days of sales).

TCI Express Ltd's cash conversion cycle runs 70 days in FY26, up from 62 days in FY23. Capital spending ran ₹208 Cr over the last 3 years. At FY26 sales of ₹1,237 Cr each day of that cycle holds about ₹3.4 Cr, so roughly ₹237 Cr sits inside the business at any moment.

FY26: debtors at 70 days (an asset-light business — no inventory to speak of) — for a full cycle of 70 days, looser than FY23's 62.

In money terms: at FY26 sales of ₹1,237 Cr, each day of the cycle holds about ₹3.4 Cr — so the 70-day loop keeps roughly ₹237 Cr sitting inside the business at any moment.

On the investment side: capital spending of ₹208 Cr over the last 3 fiscal years against ₹67.0 Cr of depreciation — the company is building well ahead of wear-and-tear. Capital work-in-progress stands at ₹29.0 Cr (FY26) — capacity paid for but not yet earning.

The synthesis: the cash is going into capacity, not disappearing into the cycle — the question becomes whether the new capacity earns.

→ Does all this activity actually earn its cost of capital? Next: ROCE is 14% and the ROIC − WACC spread is −1.2 pp.

Return on capital Return on capital employed (ROCE) is the profit the whole business earns on all the money in it — equity and debt together. It is the single best test of whether growth creates value or just size.⚠ unverified

TCI Express Ltd earns a ROCE of 14% in FY26. Return on invested capital clears the cost of that capital by −1.2 percentage points, so growth here is not yet paying for the capital it uses. The wiring behind it is 6.5% net margin on 1.21× asset turns.

FY26 ROCE is 14%.

🚨 Why the return is what it is — the wiring (FY26): 6.5% net margin × 1.21× asset turns × 1.25× balance-sheet leverage ≈ 9.8% on equity. Margin does its share; leverage is modest — this is an earned return, not a borrowed one.

The capstone test — ROIC − WACC: 10.8% − 12.0% = a −1.2 pp spread. The 12.0% is a standing assumption for the cost of capital in India, not a per-stock estimate — read the sign and the size of the spread, not the decimals. Negative — growth at these returns destroys value until the returns recover.

→ Returns like these — is the balance sheet borrowing to make them? Next: debt-to-equity is 0.08.

Debt Debt-to-equity says how much of the business is funded by borrowings. Low is the safe corner; the trend matters as much as the level.⚠ unverified

TCI Express Ltd carries total debt of ₹63.0 Cr against shareholder equity of ₹819 Cr as of Mar 26, a debt-to-equity of 0.08 — effectively unlevered. On the annual view that ratio went from 0.00 in FY22 to 0.08 in FY26. The returns elsewhere on this page are therefore earned rather than borrowed.

Mar 26: total debt of ₹63.0 Cr against shareholder equity of ₹819 Cr — a debt-to-equity of 0.08. On the annual view, debt-to-equity went from 0.00 (FY22) to 0.08 (FY26). The returns on this page are earned, not borrowed.

→ Who owns this, and are they adding or leaving? Next: Domestic institutions cut 1.3 points over 8 quarters.

Ownership Who owns the stock, quarter by quarter: promoters (the controlling owners), foreign and domestic institutions, and the public. Steady accumulation by people close to the numbers is a signal; a quiet register is also an answer.

Domestic institutions cut 1.3 points of TCI Express Ltd over 8 quarters, the biggest move on the register. That takes domestic institutions to 8.9% of the company. Foreign institutions moved −0.8 points over the same window, to 0.8%. The register is read on the four disclosed classes only; nothing is inferred between filings.

The register over the last two years — Domestic institutions: −1.3 points over 8 quarters to 8.9%; Foreign institutions: −0.8 points over 8 quarters to 0.8%; Promoters: −0.2 points over 8 quarters to 69.5%.

🚨 Why the register moved: domestic institutions drove it (−1.3 points), alongside foreign institutions (−0.8 points) — distribution into the market’s bid.

→ One last check: does the safety math agree? Next: the balance-sheet safety line.

Safety line The Z-score estimates how far a company sits from balance-sheet distress — above roughly 3 is safe, below roughly 1.8 is the danger zone. It was built for manufacturers, so it is not applied to banks and lenders.

TCI Express Ltd: the Z-score reads 9.20. A Z-score above roughly 3 reads as safe and below roughly 1.8 as the distress zone, so this sits well clear of distress. It is a distance-to-distress estimate from the balance sheet, not a forecast of failure.

Why it matters: a Z-score of 9.20 sits well clear of the distress zone — the balance sheet is not the risk here.

The safety line in one sentence: the Z-score reads 9.20.

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