Rail Vikas Nigam Ltd

Price story Before the numbers, the tape. A stock price moves through four repeating seasons: a flat base (stage 1), an advance (2), a top (3), a decline (4). Where the price sits in that cycle frames everything below.

Rail Vikas Nigam Ltd trades at ₹225, in a downtrend and 50 weeks into that stage. That is −22.9% against its own 200-day average. It sits at 0% of a 52-week range of ₹225 to ₹388. On relative strength it is currently behind the NIFTY 500 on a trailing-13-week view (23 weeks and counting).

Today the stock is in a downtrend — week 50 of stage 4, confirmed. At ₹225 it trades −22.9% versus its 200-day average and sits at 0% of its 52-week range (₹225–₹388).

Against the market, two honest reads. Cumulative: over the last 7.3 years the stock moved +1,041% while the NIFTY 500 moved +139% — ahead of the index over the full window. Recent form: on a trailing-13-week view the stock is currently behind (23 weeks and counting; last ahead the week of 2026-02-27) — the ribbon below is that same metric, week by week.

What would end the trend, mechanically: two Friday closes in a row below the 200-day line. That is the exit rule — no debates.

→ The trend is one thing; the bill is another. Are you paying up for it? Next: the P/E sits at the 74th percentile of its own range.

Valuation P/E is the price of ₹1 of annual profit: how many rupees the market pays for each rupee the company earns in a year.

Rail Vikas Nigam Ltd trades at 53.5× P/E, at the pricey end of its own range (74th percentile). Its long-run median P/E is 10.0×, measured across 7.3 years of weekly readings. This places the multiple against the stock’s own record, and says nothing about what the business is worth.

Today's P/E of 53.5× is at the pricey end of its own range (74th percentile), against a long-run median of 10.0× measured over 7.3 years of weekly readings. This is a comparison against the stock's own history — not a claim about what it is worth.

Why the multiple sits where it does: over the past year annual EPS moved −31.7% against a −40.0% price move — earnings outran the price, pushing the multiple DOWN its own range.

The price move, decomposed: over 5y, of the +48.2%/yr price move, ~−2.3%/yr came from earnings growth and ~+50.5 pp from the multiple (expanding). The split is the honest approximate (price return minus earnings growth); it makes the rally itself visible instead of hiding it behind the percentile.

Put together: the multiple is full against its own past, so the story rests on the earnings line underneath it, not the multiple.

→ Cheap or dear rides on the earnings. Are they actually growing? Next: the fundamental stage — where the business sits in its arc, and how growth has compounded.

Stage: Deteriorating Every business sits somewhere on a fundamental arc, and this page names the spot before anything else. The last twelve quarters of revenue, profit and EPS growth — plus the return the business earns on its capital — are read as curves: Deteriorating (the curves are falling), Turning around (a trough has just formed and the last few quarters lift off it), Improving (the climb off the trough is sustained), Consistent (steadily positive with healthy returns), Topping out (still high but decelerating from the peak). When the curves genuinely disagree the read is Mixed; too little history is No read. CAGR (compound annual growth rate) is the smooth yearly pace that turns the starting value into the latest one — the fairest way to compare growth across different time spans. Read the columns together: if the 1-year number towers over the 10-year, recent growth is running hotter than the long-run trend. A dash means that window is not held, or the base year was a loss (where a growth rate is not meaningful).

Rail Vikas Nigam Ltd reads as deteriorating on its fundamental arc. Deteriorating — profit and EPS growth are shrinking (profit growth −31.8% latest against +24.6% at its 12-quarter best), ROCE slipping at 10.8%. The read is built from 12 quarters across 4 curves, on full evidence.

🚨 Why it matters: falling curves mean every cheap-looking ratio below needs a discount for direction.

→ The stage names the trajectory. Next: the revenue line that produces it, quarter by quarter.

4-Factor Sector Score

36.5/100 — rank 14 of 17 in Infra - Construction & Contracting · 87% evidence confidence

Rail Vikas Nigam Ltd scores 36.5 out of 100 against the 17 companies it is compared with in Infra - Construction & Contracting, ranking 14. Balanced evidence: keep at normal research priority and require another comparable period before raising conviction.

The four contributions add to the total exactly: 11.1 + 9.2 + 4.5 + 11.7 = 36.5. This is the SAME number shown on the sector comparison — it is computed once, for the whole peer set, and read here.

What would change it: The read weakens if profit growth turns negative or margin improvement reverses while sector-relative strength deteriorates.

Revenue Revenue is the top line: everything the company billed its customers in the period.

Rail Vikas Nigam Ltd reported ₹6,696 Cr of revenue in the Mar 26 quarter, +4.2% year on year. That is the 3rd straight quarter of year-on-year growth. Over 10 years it has compounded at 16.2% a year. The last full year, FY26, came in at ₹20,412 Cr. The last four reported quarters add to ₹20,412 Cr.

Rail Vikas Nigam Ltd reported ₹6,696 Cr of revenue in the Mar 26 quarter, +4.2% year on year. That is the 3rd straight quarter of year-on-year growth. Over 10 years it has compounded at 16.2% a year. The last full year, FY26, came in at ₹20,412 Cr. The last four reported quarters add to ₹20,412 Cr.

FY26 revenue came in at ₹20,412 Cr (+2.5% on the year), capping 10 years at 16.2% compound. The latest quarter (Mar 26) printed ₹6,696 Cr, +4.2% year on year — the 3rd consecutive quarter of year-over-year growth.

Pace check: the last four quarters averaged +2.0% growth against the decade's 16.2% — the current year is running slower than its own long-run rate.

Acceleration check: trailing-twelve-month revenue grew +2.5% over the last 4 quarters against −3.4%/yr over the last 8 — accelerating; TTM profit −31.8% vs −25.6%/yr — rolling over.

→ Revenue grew — did margins hold as it scaled? Next: 4.0% this quarter (−3.0 pp YoY).

Operating margin Operating margin is what is left of every ₹100 of sales after running the business, before interest and tax. It is the cleanest read on pricing power and cost control.

Rail Vikas Nigam Ltd's operating margin is 4.0% in the Mar 26 quarter, −3.0 percentage points against the same quarter a year ago. Across 12 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged 4.0% to 6.0%. The current quarter sits inside that band.

Rail Vikas Nigam Ltd's operating margin is 4.0% in the Mar 26 quarter, −3.0 percentage points against the same quarter a year ago. Across 12 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged 4.0% to 6.0%. The current quarter sits inside that band.

The latest quarter's operating margin is 4.0%, −3.0 pp against the same quarter a year ago. Across 12 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged 4.0%–6.0%.

🚨 Why the margin moved: operating margin went −2.7 pp year on year while gross margin went −2.6 pp — the loss came mostly from the gross line: input costs and pricing.

→ Margins slipped — did that reach the bottom line? Next: profit −60.0% in the latest quarter.

Net profit Net profit is what survives every cost, interest and tax — the number EPS, dividends and book value all grow from.

Rail Vikas Nigam Ltd earned ₹182 Cr of net profit in the Mar 26 quarter, −60.0% year on year. Full-year FY26 profit was ₹871 Cr. The 10-year compound rate is 7.3%. That is 2.7% of the quarter's revenue. The same quarter a year earlier earned ₹455 Cr.

Rail Vikas Nigam Ltd earned ₹182 Cr of net profit in the Mar 26 quarter, −60.0% year on year. Full-year FY26 profit was ₹871 Cr. The 10-year compound rate is 7.3%. That is 2.7% of the quarter's revenue. The same quarter a year earlier earned ₹455 Cr.

Mar 26 profit was ₹182 Cr, −60.0% year on year. On the full year, FY26 printed ₹871 Cr (−32.1%), and the 10-year compound rate is 7.3%.

🚨 Why profit moved: revenue contributed +4.2% and the margin −3.0 pp — the quarter was revenue-led despite a thinner margin.

Pace comparison, last four quarters: profit −29.0% vs revenue +2.0%. Profit is growing slower than sales — costs are eating the growth before it reaches the bottom line.

→ Profit rose — but did the cash follow? Next: 79% of the last 3 years' profit arrived as cash.

Cash flow — the router The P&L says what was earned; the cash-flow statement says what actually arrived. Operating cash flow (CFO) against profit is the cleanest lie detector in the accounts.

Over the last 3 fiscal years 79% of Rail Vikas Nigam Ltd's reported profit arrived as operating cash — most of the profit is real cash. In FY26 that was ₹−1,894 Cr of operating cash against ₹871 Cr of profit. After ₹34.0 Cr of capital spending, ₹−1,928 Cr was left as free cash.

FY26: operating cash of ₹−1,894 Cr against reported profit of ₹871 Cr, leaving free cash of ₹−1,928 Cr after ₹34.0 Cr of capital spending. Across the last 3 fiscal years the conversion rate is 79% of profit.

Cash-flow readings here are annual — that is the resolution our series carries, so this section moves once a year.

Why conversion sits at 79%: the cash cycle stretched 73 days between FY21 and FY26 — more of each rupee of profit waits inside the cycle before arriving.

Router verdict: conversion is below par and the cash cycle has stretched 73 days — the next section's job is to find where the cash is stuck.

→ So follow the cash to where it goes. Next: the 96-day cycle, in money terms.

Where the cash goes Working capital is the cash tied up between paying suppliers and getting paid: debtor days (customers owe), inventory days (stock waits), and the cash conversion cycle (the whole loop, in days of sales).

Rail Vikas Nigam Ltd's cash conversion cycle runs 96 days in FY26, up from 23 days in FY21. Capital spending ran ₹757 Cr over the last 3 years. At FY26 sales of ₹20,412 Cr each day of that cycle holds about ₹55.9 Cr, so roughly ₹5,369 Cr sits inside the business at any moment.

FY26: debtors at 96 days (an asset-light business — no inventory to speak of) — for a full cycle of 96 days, looser than FY21's 23.

In money terms: at FY26 sales of ₹20,412 Cr, each day of the cycle holds about ₹55.9 Cr — so the 96-day loop keeps roughly ₹5,369 Cr sitting inside the business at any moment.

On the investment side: capital spending of ₹757 Cr over the last 3 fiscal years against ₹88.0 Cr of depreciation — the company is building well ahead of wear-and-tear. Capital work-in-progress stands at ₹0.0 Cr (FY26) — capacity paid for but not yet earning.

The synthesis: the working-capital loop is the cash sink the router flagged — watch the cycle, not the P&L.

→ Does all this activity actually earn its cost of capital? Next: ROCE is 11% and the ROIC − WACC spread is −7.9 pp.

Return on capital Return on capital employed (ROCE) is the profit the whole business earns on all the money in it — equity and debt together. It is the single best test of whether growth creates value or just size.

Rail Vikas Nigam Ltd earns a ROCE of 11% in FY26. That is up from a trough of 7% in FY16. Return on invested capital clears the cost of that capital by −7.9 percentage points, so growth here is not yet paying for the capital it uses. The wiring behind it is 4.3% net margin on 0.94× asset turns.

FY26 ROCE is 11%, recovered from a FY16 trough of 7% — the full ladder below shows the fall and the climb, undoctored.

🚨 Why the return is what it is — the wiring (FY26): 4.3% net margin × 0.94× asset turns × 2.21× balance-sheet leverage ≈ 8.9% on equity. Margin does its share; leverage is a meaningful part of the equation.

The capstone test — ROIC − WACC: 4.1% − 12.0% = a −7.9 pp spread. The 12.0% is a standing assumption for the cost of capital in India, not a per-stock estimate — read the sign and the size of the spread, not the decimals. Negative — growth at these returns destroys value until the returns recover.

→ Returns like these — is the balance sheet borrowing to make them? Next: debt-to-equity is 0.49.

Debt Debt-to-equity says how much of the business is funded by borrowings. Low is the safe corner; the trend matters as much as the level.

Rail Vikas Nigam Ltd carries total debt of ₹4,818 Cr against shareholder equity of ₹9,818 Cr as of Mar 26, a debt-to-equity of 0.49. On the annual view that ratio went from 1.05 in FY22 to 0.49 in FY26. Read the returns elsewhere on this page with that leverage in mind.

Mar 26: total debt of ₹4,818 Cr against shareholder equity of ₹9,818 Cr — a debt-to-equity of 0.49. On the annual view, debt-to-equity went from 1.05 (FY22) to 0.49 (FY26). Read the returns on this page with that leverage in mind.

→ Who owns this, and are they adding or leaving? Next: the register is quiet.

Ownership Who owns the stock, quarter by quarter: promoters (the controlling owners), foreign and domestic institutions, and the public. Steady accumulation by people close to the numbers is a signal; a quiet register is also an answer.

No holder of Rail Vikas Nigam Ltd moved a full percentage point over the last two years — the register is quiet. Domestic institutions moved −0.2 points over the same window, to 6.6%. The register is read on the four disclosed classes only; nothing is inferred between filings.

The register over the last two years — Foreign institutions: −0.7 points over 8 quarters to 2.4%; Domestic institutions: −0.2 points over 8 quarters to 6.6%; Promoters: +0.0 points over 8 quarters to 72.8%.

→ One last check: does the safety math agree? Next: the balance-sheet safety line.

Safety line The Z-score estimates how far a company sits from balance-sheet distress — above roughly 3 is safe, below roughly 1.8 is the danger zone. It was built for manufacturers, so it is not applied to banks and lenders.

Rail Vikas Nigam Ltd: the Z-score is not available for this stock, so we say so rather than invent one. It is a distance-to-distress estimate from the balance sheet, not a forecast of failure. The debt, cash-flow and return sections above carry the balance-sheet evidence this page does hold, and each of them states its own reporting date.

The safety line in one sentence: the Z-score is not available for this stock, so we say so rather than invent one.

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