Rio Tinto Group
RIORio Tinto Group's three tracks disagree. Price, valuation and the earnings engine each tell a different story — the next quarter or two settles it.
The sharpest disagreement: the price moved +45.2% in a year while annual EPS moved −14.0% — the difference is re-rating, and re-rating has to be repaid with earnings.
The price is in a confirmed uptrend (34 weeks in). Underneath, the last four quarters read improving — profit +0.5% year on year, and 150% of the last 3 years' profit arrived as cash. What settles it: whether earnings grow into a price that has already moved.
Price story Before the numbers, the tape. A stock price moves through four repeating seasons: a flat base (stage 1), an advance (2), a top (3), a decline (4). Where the price sits in that cycle frames everything below.
Rio Tinto Group trades at $91.6, in a confirmed uptrend and 34 weeks into that stage. That is +3.0% against its own 200-day average. It sits at 67% of a 52-week range of $61 to $106. On relative strength it is currently behind the S&P 500 on a trailing-13-week view (6 weeks and counting).
Today the stock is in a confirmed uptrend — week 34 of stage 2. At $91.6 it trades +3.0% versus its 200-day average and sits at 67% of its 52-week range ($61–$106).
Against the market, two honest reads. Cumulative: over the last 10.1 years the stock moved +190% while the S&P 500 moved +248% — behind the index over the full window. Recent form: on a trailing-13-week view the stock is currently behind (6 weeks and counting; last ahead the week of 2026-06-18) — the ribbon below is that same metric, week by week.
What would end the trend, mechanically: two Friday closes in a row below the 200-day line. That is the exit rule — no debates.
→ The trend is one thing; the bill is another. Are you paying up for it? Next: how the P/E reads against its own history.
Valuation P/E is the price of $1 of annual profit: how many dollars the market pays for each dollar the company earns in a year.
Rio Tinto Group trades at 15.7× P/E, against too little history to rank. This places the multiple against the stock’s own record, and says nothing about what the business is worth.
Today's P/E of 15.7× is against too little history to rank. This is a comparison against the stock's own history — not a claim about what it is worth.
🚨 Why the multiple sits where it does: over the past year annual EPS moved −14.0% against a +45.2% price move — the price outran earnings, pushing the multiple UP its own range.
Put together: the multiple is unremarkable against its own past, so the story rests on the earnings line underneath it, not the multiple.
→ Cheap or dear rides on the earnings. Are they actually growing? Next: the fundamental stage — where the business sits in its arc, and how growth has compounded.
Stage: No read Every business sits somewhere on a fundamental arc, and this page names the spot before anything else. The last twelve quarters of revenue, profit and EPS growth — plus the return the business earns on its capital — are read as curves: Deteriorating (the curves are falling), Turning around (a trough has just formed and the last few quarters lift off it), Improving (the climb off the trough is sustained), Consistent (steadily positive with healthy returns), Topping out (still high but decelerating from the peak). When the curves genuinely disagree the read is Mixed; too little history is No read. CAGR (compound annual growth rate) is the smooth yearly pace that turns the starting value into the latest one — the fairest way to compare growth across different time spans. Read the columns together: if the 1-year number towers over the 10-year, recent growth is running hotter than the long-run trend. A dash means that window is not held, or the base year was a loss (where a growth rate is not meaningful).
Rio Tinto Group reads as no read on its fundamental arc. Under eight usable quarters on the growth trio — not enough history for an honest trajectory read. The read is built from 6 quarters across 1 curve, on partial evidence.
Why it matters: with too little history, an honest page says so instead of guessing a trajectory.
One or more growth curves carry a base-effect spike — a large year-on-year move off a near-zero or loss-making comparable quarter. Those spikes are capped before the classifier reads the trajectory, and shown pinned on the chart, so a single distorted quarter does not drive the stage call.
Fewer than eight usable quarters on the growth curves — this page will not guess a trajectory from a stub of history.
| 1yr | 3yr | 5yr | 10yr | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | +7.4% | +1.2% | — | — |
| Profit | −11.4% | −7.7% | — | — |
| EPS | −14.0% | −7.2% | — | — |
| Stock price | +45.2% | +11.5% | +1.2% | +10.8% |
→ The stage names the trajectory. Next: the revenue line that produces it, quarter by quarter.
4-Factor Sector Score
57.4/100 — rank 16 of 30 in Other Industrial Metals & Mining · 35% evidence confidence · provisional, ranked below fully-evidenced peers
Rio Tinto Group scores 57.4 out of 100 against the 30 companies it is compared with in Other Industrial Metals & Mining, ranking 16. Fill the missing evidence before acting; the ranking is deliberately pulled toward neutral.
The four contributions add to the total exactly: 17.6 + 13.2 + 10.2 + 16.4 = 57.4. This is the SAME number shown on the sector comparison — it is computed once, for the whole peer set, and read here.
What would change it: The read weakens if profit growth turns negative or margin improvement reverses while sector-relative strength deteriorates.
Revenue Revenue is the top line: everything the company billed its customers in the period.
Rio Tinto Group reported $30.8 B of revenue in the Dec 25 quarter, +14.6% year on year. That is the 2nd straight quarter of year-on-year growth. Over 4 years it has compounded at −2.4% a year. The last full year, FY25, came in at $57.6 B. The last four reported quarters add to $111 B.
Rio Tinto Group reported $30.8 B of revenue in the Dec 25 quarter, +14.6% year on year. That is the 2nd straight quarter of year-on-year growth. Over 4 years it has compounded at −2.4% a year. The last full year, FY25, came in at $57.6 B. The last four reported quarters add to $111 B.
FY25 revenue came in at $57.6 B (+7.4% on the year), capping 4 years at −2.4% compound. The latest quarter (Dec 25) printed $30.8 B, +14.6% year on year — the 2nd consecutive quarter of year-over-year growth.
Pace check: the last four quarters averaged +3.4% growth against the decade's −2.4% — the current year is running faster than its own long-run rate.
→ Revenue grew — did margins hold as it scaled? Next: 25.9% this quarter (+2.9 pp YoY).
Operating margin Operating margin is what is left of every $100 of sales after running the business, before interest and tax. It is the cleanest read on pricing power and cost control.
Rio Tinto Group's operating margin is 25.9% in the Dec 25 quarter, +2.9 percentage points against the same quarter a year ago. Across the last four quarters the operating margin has moved −0.9 percentage points. Across 5 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged 25.9% to 47.0%. The current quarter sits inside that band.
Rio Tinto Group's operating margin is 25.9% in the Dec 25 quarter, +2.9 percentage points against the same quarter a year ago. Across the last four quarters the operating margin has moved −0.9 percentage points. Across 5 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged 25.9% to 47.0%. The current quarter sits inside that band.
The latest quarter's operating margin is 25.9%, +2.9 pp against the same quarter a year ago. Across 5 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged 25.9%–47.0%.
🚨 Why the margin moved: operating margin went −0.9 pp year on year while gross margin went −1.3 pp — the loss came mostly from the gross line: input costs and pricing.
→ Margins held — did that reach the bottom line? Next: profit +0.5% in the latest quarter.
Net profit Net profit is what survives every cost, interest and tax — the number EPS, dividends and book value all grow from.
Rio Tinto Group earned $5.7 B of net profit in the Dec 25 quarter, +0.5% year on year. Full-year FY25 profit was $10.3 B. The 4-year compound rate is −17.9%. That is 18.6% of the quarter's revenue. The same quarter a year earlier earned $5.0 B.
Rio Tinto Group earned $5.7 B of net profit in the Dec 25 quarter, +0.5% year on year. Full-year FY25 profit was $10.3 B. The 4-year compound rate is −17.9%. That is 18.6% of the quarter's revenue. The same quarter a year earlier earned $5.0 B.
Dec 25 profit was $5.7 B, +0.5% year on year. On the full year, FY25 printed $10.3 B (−11.4%), and the 4-year compound rate is −17.9%.
Why profit moved: revenue contributed +14.6% and the margin +2.9 pp — the quarter was margin-led: most of the profit growth came from keeping more of each sale.
Pace comparison, last four quarters: profit +2.5% vs revenue +3.4%. Profit and revenue are moving roughly in step.
→ Profit rose — but did the cash follow? Next: 150% of the last 3 years' profit arrived as cash.
Cash flow — the router The P&L says what was earned; the cash-flow statement says what actually arrived. Operating cash flow (CFO) against profit is the cleanest lie detector in the accounts.
Over the last 3 fiscal years 150% of Rio Tinto Group's reported profit arrived as operating cash — the cash follows the profit. In FY25 that was $16.8 B of operating cash against $10.3 B of profit. After $12.3 B of capital spending, $4.5 B was left as free cash.
FY25: operating cash of $16.8 B against reported profit of $10.3 B, leaving free cash of $4.5 B after $12.3 B of capital spending. Across the last 3 fiscal years the conversion rate is 150% of profit.
Cash-flow readings here are annual — that is the resolution our series carries, so this section moves once a year.
Why: conversion is measured cleanly, but the working-capital day-counts behind it sit below what we hold — the move is shown without inventing its driver.
Router verdict: the visible cash user is investment — the next section checks what the spending is buying.
→ So follow the cash to where it goes. Next: $29.0 B of building over 3 years.
Where the cash goes Working capital is the cash tied up between paying suppliers and getting paid: debtor days (customers owe), inventory days (stock waits), and the cash conversion cycle (the whole loop, in days of sales).
Rio Tinto Group does not report the debtor, inventory and payable day-counts a cash cycle is built from, so this section reads the investment side instead. Capital spending ran $29.0 B over the last 3 years. Averaged over those years that is 16.8% of FY25 revenue a year.
Working-capital day-counts are not in our numbers for this stock, so this section reads the investment side — where the cash is being put to work.
On the investment side: capital spending of $29.0 B over the last 3 fiscal years.
The synthesis: the cash is going into capacity, not disappearing into the cycle — the question becomes whether the new capacity earns.
→ Does all this activity actually earn its cost of capital? Next: ROE is 16% and the ROIC − WACC spread is +5.4 pp.
Return on equity Return on equity (ROE) is the profit the business earns on its shareholders’ money. With the full capital-employed split not in our numbers, ROE is the cleanest long ladder we can draw here.
Rio Tinto Group earns a ROE of 15% in FY25. Return on invested capital clears the cost of that capital by +5.4 percentage points, so growth here adds value rather than only size. The wiring behind it is 17.8% net margin on 0.45× asset turns.
FY25 ROE is 15%.
Why the return is what it is — the wiring (FY25): 17.8% net margin × 0.45× asset turns × 1.91× balance-sheet leverage ≈ 15.3% on equity. Margin is doing the heavy lifting; leverage is a meaningful part of the equation.
The capstone test — ROIC − WACC: 12.6% − 7.2% = a +5.4 pp spread. The 7.2% is an estimate of this company's own cost of capital — read the sign and the size of the spread, not the decimals. A spread this wide means every dollar reinvested creates more than a dollar of value — the engine compounds.
→ Returns like these — is the balance sheet borrowing to make them? Next: debt-to-equity is 0.35.
Dividend
Rio Tinto Group pays no dividend. Across the last 8 reported quarters it has declared no dividend per share, so there is no payout history to chart and no yield to quote. Companies at this stage typically reinvest earnings rather than distribute them, which makes the cash-flow and reinvestment sections the place that cash shows up.
Rio Tinto Group does not currently pay a dividend. Across the last 8 reported quarters the company has declared no dividend per share, so there is no payout history to chart and no yield to quote. Companies at this stage typically reinvest earnings instead of distributing them.
→ No payout to follow. The cash question becomes what the business does with what it earns instead.
Debt Debt-to-equity says how much of the business is funded by borrowings; interest cover says how many times operating profit pays the interest bill. Low and high, respectively, is the safe corner.
Debt-to-equity is 0.35 at the latest reading — modestly levered; a full borrowings history is not in our numbers.
We hold only the latest reading here: a debt-to-equity of 0.35 — a modest level of leverage behind the returns above. A year-by-year borrowings ladder is not in our numbers for this stock, so we say that rather than draw a chart we cannot support.
→ Who owns this, and are they adding or leaving? Next: short interest is 0.7% of the float.
Ownership There is no quarter-by-quarter holder register to read here, so we read the crowd through short interest — the slice of tradable shares currently sold short, positioned for a fall.
0.7% of Rio Tinto Group's tradable float is currently sold short — the crowd is not positioned against this stock. At typical trading volumes those positions would take about 3.3 days to buy back. There is no quarter-by-quarter holder register to read for this filer, so the crowd is read through short interest instead.
The latest reading: 0.7% of the float is sold short, and at typical trading volumes it would take about 3.3 days to buy those positions back. The crowd is not positioned against this stock. This is a single point-in-time reading — we do not yet hold its history, so we show no trend chart.
Why it sits there: who is doing the shorting, and why, does not travel with the number — the level is shown without inventing its story.
→ One last check: does the safety math agree? Next: the balance-sheet safety line.
Safety line The Z-score estimates how far a company sits from balance-sheet distress — above roughly 3 is safe, below roughly 1.8 is the danger zone. It was built for manufacturers, so it is not applied to banks and lenders.
Rio Tinto Group: the Z-score reads 2.46. A Z-score above roughly 3 reads as safe and below roughly 1.8 as the distress zone, so this sits in the grey band between the two. It is a distance-to-distress estimate from the balance sheet, not a forecast of failure.
Why it matters: a Z-score of 2.46 sits in the grey band — neither clearly safe nor clearly distressed.
The safety line in one sentence: the Z-score reads 2.46.
| Company | P/E | Mkt cap | Revenue | EPS | ROCE | Stage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rio Tinto Group this page | 15.7× | $156B | No read | |||
| BHP Group Limited | 20.5× | $210B | Turning around | |||
| Vale S.A. | 21.1× | $63B | Turning around | |||
| Teck Resources Limited | 16.3× | $29B | Improving | |||
| MP Materials Corp. | — | $7B | Mixed | |||
| Materion Corporation | 57.5× | $4B | Turning around | |||
| Almonty Industries Inc. | — | $4B | No read | |||
| USA Rare Earth, Inc. | — | $3B | — | — | — | — |
| Skeena Resources Limited | — | $3B | — | — | — | — |
| Evolution Metals & Technologies Corp. | — | $3B | — | — | — | — |
| Nexa Resources S.A. | 7.8× | $2B | No read | |||
| TMC the metals company Inc. | — | $2B | — | — | — | — |
| Americas Gold and Silver Corporation | — | $1B | No read | |||
| Compass Minerals International, Inc. | 190.9× | $1B | No read | |||
| Vizsla Silver Corp. | — | $1B | — | — | — | — |
| Sigma Lithium Corporation | — | $1B | No read | |||
| Elevra Lithium Limited | — | $1B | — | — | — | — |
| Lithium Americas Corp. | — | $1B | — | — | — | — |
| Lithium Argentina AG | — | $1B | — | — | — | — |
| Critical Metals Corp. | — | $1B | — | — | — | — |
| IperionX Limited | — | $1B | — | — | — | — |
| Northern Dynasty Minerals Ltd. | — | $1B | — | — | — | — |
| United States Antimony Corporation | — | $1B | No read | |||
| Ferroglobe PLC | — | $1B | Deteriorating | |||
| NioCorp Developments Ltd. | — | $1B | — | — | — | — |
| Santacruz Silver Mining Ltd. | 9.5× | $1B | No read | |||
| Blue Moon Metals Inc. | — | $1B | — | — | — | — |
| Trilogy Metals Inc. | — | $1B | — | — | — | — |
| REalloys Inc. | — | $1B | No read | |||
| Standard Lithium Ltd. | — | $0B | — | — | — | — |
| Western Copper and Gold Corporation | — | $0B | — | — | — | — |
| Nouveau Monde Graphite Inc. | — | $0B | — | — | — | — |
| The Metals Royalty Company Inc. | — | $0B | — | — | — | — |
| Lifezone Metals Limited | — | $0B | No read | |||
| ioneer Ltd | — | $0B | — | — | — | — |
| Titan Mining Corporation | — | $0B | No read | |||
| Rare Earths Americas, Inc. | — | $0B | — | — | — | — |
| Nova Minerals Corp | — | $0B | — | — | — | — |
| Brazil Potash Corp. | — | $0B | — | — | — | — |
| Nicola Mining Inc. | — | $0B | No read |
Frequently asked questions
What is Rio Tinto Group's stock price today?
Rio Tinto Group trades at $91.6, +45.2% over the past year. The company is valued at $156 B. The stock sits at 67% of its 52-week range of $61–$106, +3.0% versus its 200-day average. On the tape, the price is in a confirmed uptrend, 34 weeks in. — as of 29 July 2026.
What were Rio Tinto Group's latest quarterly results?
Rio Tinto Group reported revenue of $30.8 B and net profit of $5.7 B for the Dec 25 quarter. Revenue rose 14.6% and profit rose 0.5% year on year. Earnings per share were $3.32. The operating margin was 25.9%, 2.9 pp higher than a year earlier. — as of 29 July 2026.
What is Rio Tinto Group's revenue?
Rio Tinto Group reported revenue of $30.8 B in the Dec 25 quarter, +14.6% year on year. For the full FY25 fiscal year, revenue was $57.6 B (+7.4%). Over the last 4 years revenue compounded at −2.4% a year. — as of 29 July 2026.
What is Rio Tinto Group's profit?
Rio Tinto Group earned $5.7 B of net profit in the Dec 25 quarter, +0.5% year on year. Full-year FY25 profit was $10.3 B. The operating margin ran 25.9% in the latest quarter. — as of 29 July 2026.
What is Rio Tinto Group's market cap?
Rio Tinto Group's market capitalisation is $156 B at a stock price of $91.6. Market cap is the share price multiplied by shares outstanding, so it is restated whenever the price moves. — as of 29 July 2026.
Does Rio Tinto Group pay a dividend?
No — Rio Tinto Group has declared no dividend per share in any of its last 8 reported quarters, so there is no payout history and no yield to quote. That is a reading of the filed statements, not an estimate. — as of 29 July 2026.
Is Rio Tinto Group growing?
Yes — Rio Tinto Group is growing: latest-quarter revenue +14.6% year on year, profit +0.5%, and the margin +2.9 pp at 25.9%. The 4-year compound rates are −2.4% (revenue) and −17.9% (profit). The earnings engine currently reads: improving — as of 29 July 2026.
How is Rio Tinto Group performing?
Rio Tinto Group is in a confirmed uptrend, 34 weeks in. Its latest quarter's revenue rose 14.6% and profit rose 0.5% year on year. Against the S&P 500 it has been behind on a trailing-13-week view for 6 weeks. This describes what the data did, not a rating. — as of 29 July 2026.
Is Rio Tinto Group in an uptrend?
Yes — the price is in a confirmed uptrend (week 34 of stage 2), trading +3.0% versus its 200-day average and at 67% of its 52-week range. Price stages cycle base → advance → top → decline, and the stage names where this stock sits in that cycle — as of 29 July 2026.
Is Rio Tinto Group beating the market?
Not lately — on a trailing-13-week view Rio Tinto Group is currently behind the S&P 500 (6 weeks and counting; last ahead the week of 2026-06-18), the same metric the week-by-week ribbon on this page draws. Separately, on the cumulative view: over the last 10.1 years the stock moved +190% against the S&P 500's +248% — behind the index over the full window. — as of 29 July 2026.
Will Rio Tinto Group's stock price go up?
This page publishes no price forecast for Rio Tinto Group. What it measures instead: the stock price is $91.6, the price is in a confirmed uptrend 34 weeks in. Direction is not something this site claims to know. — as of 29 July 2026.
Is the market betting against Rio Tinto Group?
No — short interest is 0.7% of Rio Tinto Group's tradable float, about 3.3 days to cover at typical volumes. That is a low reading: the crowd is not positioned against this stock. With no quarter-by-quarter holder register here, short interest is the cleanest crowd read we hold — as of 29 July 2026.
Does Rio Tinto Group have too much debt?
It is moderate — Rio Tinto Group's debt-to-equity is 0.35. A year-by-year borrowings ladder is not in our numbers for this stock, so the latest reading is the cleanest hold. Read the returns on this page with that leverage in mind — as of 29 July 2026.
What is Rio Tinto Group's capex?
Rio Tinto Group spent $29.0 B on capital expenditure over the last 3 fiscal years, a figure derived from the change in fixed assets plus depreciation. In FY25 alone that was $12.3 B. — as of 29 July 2026.
What is Rio Tinto Group's cash flow?
Rio Tinto Group generated $16.8 B of operating cash flow in FY25 and $4.5 B of free cash flow after $12.3 B of capital spending. Reported profit that year was $10.3 B, so operating cash ran ahead of profit. — as of 29 July 2026.
Is Rio Tinto Group's profit real cash?
Yes — over the last 3 fiscal years, 150% of Rio Tinto Group's reported profit arrived as operating cash. In FY25, operating cash was $16.8 B against reported profit of $10.3 B. The cash then goes mostly into building capacity. Cash-flow resolution is annual — as of 29 July 2026.
How financially safe is Rio Tinto Group?
On the balance sheet, the Z-score reads 2.46 — above roughly 3 is safe, below roughly 1.8 is the distress zone. That is in the grey band — neither clearly safe nor clearly distressed. — as of 29 July 2026.
Where is Rio Tinto Group in its business cycle?
Rio Tinto Group's FY25 operating margin was 25.9%, against a 5-year band of 25.9%–47.0%: the low end of its own band, which is where recoveries start when they come. The latest quarter ran 25.9%. Profitability versus a company's own long band is the cleanest cycle clock this page holds — as of 29 July 2026.
What could break the Rio Tinto Group story?
The sharpest disagreement: the price moved +45.2% in a year while annual EPS moved −14.0% — the difference is re-rating, and re-rating has to be repaid with earnings. Mechanically, two Friday closes in a row below the 200-day average would end the price trend — that is the exit rule this page tracks — as of 29 July 2026.
Is Rio Tinto Group a stock worth studying right now?
This is not investment advice. The machine read: Rio Tinto Group's three tracks disagree. Price, valuation and the earnings engine each tell a different story — the next quarter or two settles it. The sharpest open question: whether earnings grow into a price that has already moved. Every number on this page is drawn deterministically from the raw series, with no forecasts and no price opinions — as of 29 July 2026.