BHP Group Limited

Price story Before the numbers, the tape. A stock price moves through four repeating seasons: a flat base (stage 1), an advance (2), a top (3), a decline (4). Where the price sits in that cycle frames everything below.

BHP Group Limited trades at $83.8, in a confirmed uptrend and 32 weeks into that stage. That is +17.0% against its own 200-day average. It sits at 82% of a 52-week range of $52 to $91. On relative strength it has been ahead of the S&P 500 on a trailing-13-week view for 2 straight weeks.

Today the stock is in a confirmed uptrend — week 32 of stage 2. At $83.8 it trades +17.0% versus its 200-day average and sits at 82% of its 52-week range ($52–$91).

Against the market, two honest reads. Cumulative: over the last 10.1 years the stock moved +186% while the S&P 500 moved +248% — behind the index over the full window. Recent form: on a trailing-13-week view the stock has been ahead for 2 straight weeks — the ribbon below is that same metric, week by week.

What would end the trend, mechanically: two Friday closes in a row below the 200-day line. That is the exit rule — no debates.

→ The trend is one thing; the bill is another. Are you paying up for it? Next: how the P/E reads against its own history.

Valuation P/E is the price of $1 of annual profit: how many dollars the market pays for each dollar the company earns in a year.

BHP Group Limited trades at 20.6× P/E, against too little history to rank. This places the multiple against the stock’s own record, and says nothing about what the business is worth.

Today's P/E of 20.6× is against too little history to rank. This is a comparison against the stock's own history — not a claim about what it is worth.

🚨 Why the multiple sits where it does: over the past year annual EPS moved +14.1% against a +57.6% price move — the price outran earnings, pushing the multiple UP its own range.

The price move, decomposed: over 5y, of the +1.3%/yr price move, ~+2.3%/yr came from earnings growth and ~−1.0 pp from the multiple (compressing). The split is the honest approximate (price return minus earnings growth); it makes the rally itself visible instead of hiding it behind the percentile.

Put together: the multiple is unremarkable against its own past, so the story rests on the earnings line underneath it, not the multiple.

→ Cheap or dear rides on the earnings. Are they actually growing? Next: the fundamental stage — where the business sits in its arc, and how growth has compounded.

Stage: Turning around Every business sits somewhere on a fundamental arc, and this page names the spot before anything else. The last twelve quarters of revenue, profit and EPS growth — plus the return the business earns on its capital — are read as curves: Deteriorating (the curves are falling), Turning around (a trough has just formed and the last few quarters lift off it), Improving (the climb off the trough is sustained), Consistent (steadily positive with healthy returns), Topping out (still high but decelerating from the peak). When the curves genuinely disagree the read is Mixed; too little history is No read. CAGR (compound annual growth rate) is the smooth yearly pace that turns the starting value into the latest one — the fairest way to compare growth across different time spans. Read the columns together: if the 1-year number towers over the 10-year, recent growth is running hotter than the long-run trend. A dash means that window is not held, or the base year was a loss (where a growth rate is not meaningful).

BHP Group Limited reads as turning around on its fundamental arc. Turning around — EPS growth swung from −58.1% at the trough to −38.9% off a 1-quarter-old trough, ROCE holding at 48.0%. The read is built from 12 quarters across 4 curves, on full evidence.

Why it matters: growth inflections are where re-ratings start — the curves say a turn is forming, so the question becomes whether the next quarters confirm it.

→ The stage names the trajectory. Next: the revenue line that produces it, quarter by quarter.

4-Factor Sector Score

60.5/100 — rank 15 of 30 in Other Industrial Metals & Mining · 35% evidence confidence · provisional, ranked below fully-evidenced peers

BHP Group Limited scores 60.5 out of 100 against the 30 companies it is compared with in Other Industrial Metals & Mining, ranking 15. Fill the missing evidence before acting; the ranking is deliberately pulled toward neutral.

The four contributions add to the total exactly: 17.9 + 13.7 + 9.9 + 19 = 60.5. This is the SAME number shown on the sector comparison — it is computed once, for the whole peer set, and read here.

What would change it: The read weakens if profit growth turns negative or margin improvement reverses while sector-relative strength deteriorates.

Revenue Revenue is the top line: everything the company billed its customers in the period.

BHP Group Limited reported $27.9 B of revenue in the Dec 25 quarter, +10.8% year on year. Over 4 years it has compounded at −2.6% a year. The last full year, FY25, came in at $51.3 B. The last four reported quarters add to $108 B.

BHP Group Limited reported $27.9 B of revenue in the Dec 25 quarter, +10.8% year on year. Over 4 years it has compounded at −2.6% a year. The last full year, FY25, came in at $51.3 B. The last four reported quarters add to $108 B.

FY25 revenue came in at $51.3 B (−7.9% on the year), capping 4 years at −2.6% compound. The latest quarter (Dec 25) printed $27.9 B, +10.8% year on year.

Pace check: the last four quarters averaged −0.9% growth against the decade's −2.6% — the current year is running faster than its own long-run rate.

Acceleration check: trailing-twelve-month revenue grew −6.9% over the last 4 quarters against −2.0%/yr over the last 8 — rolling over; TTM profit −8.5% vs −0.9%/yr — rolling over.

→ Revenue grew — did margins hold as it scaled? Next: 43.9% this quarter (+7.6 pp YoY).

Operating margin Operating margin is what is left of every $100 of sales after running the business, before interest and tax. It is the cleanest read on pricing power and cost control.

BHP Group Limited's operating margin is 43.9% in the Dec 25 quarter, +7.6 percentage points against the same quarter a year ago. Across the last four quarters the operating margin has moved +26.3 percentage points. Across 5 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged 31.5% to 52.4%. The current quarter sits inside that band.

BHP Group Limited's operating margin is 43.9% in the Dec 25 quarter, +7.6 percentage points against the same quarter a year ago. Across the last four quarters the operating margin has moved +26.3 percentage points. Across 5 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged 31.5% to 52.4%. The current quarter sits inside that band.

The latest quarter's operating margin is 43.9%, +7.6 pp against the same quarter a year ago. Across 5 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged 31.5%–52.4%.

Why the margin moved: operating margin went +26.3 pp year on year while gross margin went +15.8 pp — the gain came mostly from the gross line: input costs and pricing.

→ Margins held — did that reach the bottom line? Next: profit +34.6% in the latest quarter.

Net profit Net profit is what survives every cost, interest and tax — the number EPS, dividends and book value all grow from.

BHP Group Limited earned $7.1 B of net profit in the Dec 25 quarter, +34.6% year on year. Full-year FY25 profit was $11.1 B. The 4-year compound rate is −5.0%. That is 25.5% of the quarter's revenue. The same quarter a year earlier earned $1.7 B.

BHP Group Limited earned $7.1 B of net profit in the Dec 25 quarter, +34.6% year on year. Full-year FY25 profit was $11.1 B. The 4-year compound rate is −5.0%. That is 25.5% of the quarter's revenue. The same quarter a year earlier earned $1.7 B.

Dec 25 profit was $7.1 B, +34.6% year on year. On the full year, FY25 printed $11.1 B (+16.0%), and the 4-year compound rate is −5.0%.

Why profit moved: revenue contributed +10.8% and the margin +7.6 pp — the quarter was margin-led: most of the profit growth came from keeping more of each sale.

Pace comparison, last four quarters: profit +58.3% vs revenue −0.9%. Profit is growing faster than sales — fixed costs are being spread over a bigger base, and each extra dollar of revenue drops more to the bottom line.

→ Profit rose — but did the cash follow? Next: 166% of the last 3 years' profit arrived as cash.

Cash flow — the router The P&L says what was earned; the cash-flow statement says what actually arrived. Operating cash flow (CFO) against profit is the cleanest lie detector in the accounts.

Over the last 3 fiscal years 166% of BHP Group Limited's reported profit arrived as operating cash — the cash follows the profit. In FY25 that was $18.7 B of operating cash against $11.1 B of profit. After $9.4 B of capital spending, $9.2 B was left as free cash.

FY25: operating cash of $18.7 B against reported profit of $11.1 B, leaving free cash of $9.2 B after $9.4 B of capital spending. Across the last 3 fiscal years the conversion rate is 166% of profit.

Cash-flow readings here are annual — that is the resolution our series carries, so this section moves once a year.

Why: conversion is measured cleanly, but the working-capital day-counts behind it sit below what we hold — the move is shown without inventing its driver.

Router verdict: the visible cash user is investment — the next section checks what the spending is buying.

→ So follow the cash to where it goes. Next: $25.0 B of building over 3 years.

Where the cash goes Working capital is the cash tied up between paying suppliers and getting paid: debtor days (customers owe), inventory days (stock waits), and the cash conversion cycle (the whole loop, in days of sales).

BHP Group Limited does not report the debtor, inventory and payable day-counts a cash cycle is built from, so this section reads the investment side instead. Capital spending ran $25.0 B over the last 3 years. Averaged over those years that is 16.3% of FY25 revenue a year.

Working-capital day-counts are not in our numbers for this stock, so this section reads the investment side — where the cash is being put to work.

On the investment side: capital spending of $25.0 B over the last 3 fiscal years.

The synthesis: the cash is going into capacity, not disappearing into the cycle — the question becomes whether the new capacity earns.

→ Does all this activity actually earn its cost of capital? Next: ROE is 25% and the ROIC − WACC spread is +10.2 pp.

Return on equity Return on equity (ROE) is the profit the business earns on its shareholders’ money. With the full capital-employed split not in our numbers, ROE is the cleanest long ladder we can draw here.

BHP Group Limited earns a ROE of 21% in FY25. That is up from a trough of 20% in FY24. Return on invested capital clears the cost of that capital by +10.2 percentage points, so growth here adds value rather than only size. The wiring behind it is 21.7% net margin on 0.47× asset turns.

FY25 ROE is 21%, recovered from a FY24 trough of 20% — the full ladder below shows the fall and the climb, undoctored.

Why the return is what it is — the wiring (FY25): 21.7% net margin × 0.47× asset turns × 2.08× balance-sheet leverage ≈ 21.2% on equity. Margin is doing the heavy lifting; leverage is a meaningful part of the equation.

The capstone test — ROIC − WACC: 18.2% − 8.0% = a +10.2 pp spread. The 8.0% is an estimate of this company's own cost of capital — read the sign and the size of the spread, not the decimals. A spread this wide means every dollar reinvested creates more than a dollar of value — the engine compounds.

→ Returns like these — is the balance sheet borrowing to make them? Next: debt-to-equity is 0.53.

Dividend

BHP Group Limited pays no dividend. Across the last 12 reported quarters it has declared no dividend per share, so there is no payout history to chart and no yield to quote. Companies at this stage typically reinvest earnings rather than distribute them, which makes the cash-flow and reinvestment sections the place that cash shows up.

BHP Group Limited does not currently pay a dividend. Across the last 12 reported quarters the company has declared no dividend per share, so there is no payout history to chart and no yield to quote. Companies at this stage typically reinvest earnings instead of distributing them.

→ No payout to follow. The cash question becomes what the business does with what it earns instead.

Debt Debt-to-equity says how much of the business is funded by borrowings; interest cover says how many times operating profit pays the interest bill. Low and high, respectively, is the safe corner.

Debt-to-equity is 0.53 at the latest reading — modestly levered; a full borrowings history is not in our numbers.

We hold only the latest reading here: a debt-to-equity of 0.53 — a modest level of leverage behind the returns above. A year-by-year borrowings ladder is not in our numbers for this stock, so we say that rather than draw a chart we cannot support.

→ Who owns this, and are they adding or leaving? Next: short interest is 0.3% of the float.

Ownership There is no quarter-by-quarter holder register to read here, so we read the crowd through short interest — the slice of tradable shares currently sold short, positioned for a fall.

0.3% of BHP Group Limited's tradable float is currently sold short — the crowd is not positioned against this stock. At typical trading volumes those positions would take about 5.8 days to buy back. There is no quarter-by-quarter holder register to read for this filer, so the crowd is read through short interest instead.

The latest reading: 0.3% of the float is sold short, and at typical trading volumes it would take about 5.8 days to buy those positions back. The crowd is not positioned against this stock. This is a single point-in-time reading — we do not yet hold its history, so we show no trend chart.

Why it sits there: who is doing the shorting, and why, does not travel with the number — the level is shown without inventing its story.

→ One last check: does the safety math agree? Next: the balance-sheet safety line.

Safety line The Z-score estimates how far a company sits from balance-sheet distress — above roughly 3 is safe, below roughly 1.8 is the danger zone. It was built for manufacturers, so it is not applied to banks and lenders.

BHP Group Limited: the Z-score reads 3.03. A Z-score above roughly 3 reads as safe and below roughly 1.8 as the distress zone, so this sits well clear of distress. It is a distance-to-distress estimate from the balance sheet, not a forecast of failure.

Why it matters: a Z-score of 3.03 sits well clear of the distress zone — the balance sheet is not the risk here.

The safety line in one sentence: the Z-score reads 3.03.

Frequently asked questions