Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance, Inc.

Price story Before the numbers, the tape. A stock price moves through four repeating seasons: a flat base (stage 1), an advance (2), a top (3), a decline (4). Where the price sits in that cycle frames everything below.

Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance, Inc. trades at $10.1, between stages. That is −15.8% against its own 200-day average. It sits at 0% of a 52-week range of $10 to $14. On relative strength it is currently behind the S&P 500 on a trailing-13-week view (43 weeks and counting).

Today the stock is between stages. At $10.1 it trades −15.8% versus its 200-day average and sits at 0% of its 52-week range ($10–$14).

Against the market, two honest reads. Cumulative: over the last 1.0 years the stock moved −27% while the S&P 500 moved +19% — behind the index over the full window. Recent form: on a trailing-13-week view the stock is currently behind (43 weeks and counting) — the ribbon below is that same metric, week by week.

What would end the trend, mechanically: two Friday closes in a row below the 200-day line. That is the exit rule — no debates.

→ The trend is one thing; the bill is another. Are you paying up for it? Next: the P/E sits at the 2nd percentile of its own range.

Valuation P/E is the price of $1 of annual profit: how many dollars the market pays for each dollar the company earns in a year.

Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance, Inc. trades at 7.0× P/E, about the cheapest it has ever traded. Its long-run median P/E is 7.5×, measured across 1.0 years of weekly readings. This places the multiple against the stock’s own record, and says nothing about what the business is worth.

Today's P/E of 7.0× is about the cheapest it has ever traded, against a long-run median of 7.5× measured over 1.0 years of weekly readings. This is a comparison against the stock's own history — not a claim about what it is worth.

Why the multiple sits where it does: over the past year annual EPS moved −10.6% against a −25.0% price move — earnings outran the price, pushing the multiple DOWN its own range.

Put together: the multiple is low against its own past, so the story rests on the earnings line underneath it, not the multiple.

→ Cheap or dear rides on the earnings. Are they actually growing? Next: the fundamental stage — where the business sits in its arc, and how growth has compounded.

Stage: Deteriorating Every business sits somewhere on a fundamental arc, and this page names the spot before anything else. The last twelve quarters of revenue, profit and EPS growth — plus the return the business earns on its capital — are read as curves: Deteriorating (the curves are falling), Turning around (a trough has just formed and the last few quarters lift off it), Improving (the climb off the trough is sustained), Consistent (steadily positive with healthy returns), Topping out (still high but decelerating from the peak). When the curves genuinely disagree the read is Mixed; too little history is No read. CAGR (compound annual growth rate) is the smooth yearly pace that turns the starting value into the latest one — the fairest way to compare growth across different time spans. Read the columns together: if the 1-year number towers over the 10-year, recent growth is running hotter than the long-run trend. A dash means that window is not held, or the base year was a loss (where a growth rate is not meaningful).

Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance, Inc. reads as deteriorating on its fundamental arc. Deteriorating — revenue, profit and EPS growth are shrinking (revenue growth −20.0% latest against +100.0% at its 12-quarter best), ROE holding at 12.9%. The read is built from 12 quarters across 4 curves, on partial evidence.

🚨 Why it matters: falling curves mean every cheap-looking ratio below needs a discount for direction.

Return readings here are annual, not quarterly — read as level and direction only; they can confirm the growth curves but never drive the stage on their own.

A partial read: at least one curve is short, or the returns curve is not the computed quarterly series — hold the stage word a little more loosely.

→ The stage names the trajectory. Next: the revenue line that produces it, quarter by quarter.

4-Factor Sector Score

35.6/100 — rank 13 of 29 in REIT - Mortgage · 56% evidence confidence

Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance, Inc. scores 35.6 out of 100 against the 29 companies it is compared with in REIT - Mortgage, ranking 13. Fill the missing evidence before acting; the ranking is deliberately pulled toward neutral.

The four contributions add to the total exactly: 12.1 + 13 + 5.9 + 4.6 = 35.6. This is the SAME number shown on the sector comparison — it is computed once, for the whole peer set, and read here.

What would change it: The read weakens if ROA rolls over or gross NPA rises while sector-relative strength deteriorates.

Revenue Revenue is the top line: everything the company billed its customers in the period.

Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance, Inc. reported $0.0 B of revenue in the Mar 26 quarter, +0.0% year on year. Over 3 years it has compounded at 7.7% a year. The last full year, FY25, came in at $0.1 B. The last four reported quarters add to $0.0 B.

Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance, Inc. reported $0.0 B of revenue in the Mar 26 quarter, +0.0% year on year. Over 3 years it has compounded at 7.7% a year. The last full year, FY25, came in at $0.1 B. The last four reported quarters add to $0.0 B.

FY25 revenue came in at $0.1 B (−16.7% on the year), capping 3 years at 7.7% compound. The latest quarter (Mar 26) printed $0.0 B, +0.0% year on year.

Pace check: the last four quarters averaged −12.5% growth against the decade's 7.7% — the current year is running slower than its own long-run rate.

Acceleration check: trailing-twelve-month revenue grew −20.0% over the last 4 quarters against −10.6%/yr over the last 8 — rolling over; TTM profit −25.0% vs −13.4%/yr — rolling over.

→ Revenue grew — did margins hold as it scaled? Next: the margin picture.

Operating margin Operating margin is what is left of every $100 of sales after running the business, before interest and tax. It is the cleanest read on pricing power and cost control.

A clean operating margin is not in our numbers for Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance, Inc. — its accounts do not report the operating-profit line this section reads, which is common for lenders and holding companies. The sections above and below carry the readings this company's filings do support.

A clean operating margin is not in our numbers for Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance, Inc. — its accounts do not report the operating-profit line this section reads, which is common for lenders and holding companies. The sections above and below carry the readings this company's filings do support.

This company's accounts do not report the operating-profit line this section reads — common for lenders and holding companies classified outside the financial bucket. The revenue and net-profit sections are the cleaner reads for Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance, Inc..

Why: the numbers show the operating margin move clearly, but the cost lines behind it sit below what we hold — so we state the move without inventing its driver.

→ Margins slipped — did that reach the bottom line? Next: profit −100.0% in the latest quarter.

Net profit Net profit is what survives every cost, interest and tax — the number EPS, dividends and book value all grow from.

Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance, Inc. earned $0.0 B of net profit in the Mar 26 quarter, −100.0% year on year. Full-year FY25 profit was $0.0 B. The 3-year compound rate is 10.1%. That is 0.0% of the quarter's revenue. The same quarter a year earlier earned $0.0 B.

Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance, Inc. earned $0.0 B of net profit in the Mar 26 quarter, −100.0% year on year. Full-year FY25 profit was $0.0 B. The 3-year compound rate is 10.1%. That is 0.0% of the quarter's revenue. The same quarter a year earlier earned $0.0 B.

Mar 26 profit was $0.0 B, −100.0% year on year. On the full year, FY25 printed $0.0 B (+0.0%), and the 3-year compound rate is 10.1%.

Pace comparison, last four quarters: profit −25.0% vs revenue −12.5%. Profit is growing slower than sales — costs are eating the growth before it reaches the bottom line.

→ Profit rose — but did the cash follow? Next: 67% of the last 3 years' profit arrived as cash.

Cash flow — the router The P&L says what was earned; the cash-flow statement says what actually arrived. Operating cash flow (CFO) against profit is the cleanest lie detector in the accounts.

Over the last 3 fiscal years 67% of Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance, Inc.'s reported profit arrived as operating cash — most of the profit is real cash. In FY25 that was $0.0 B of operating cash against $0.0 B of profit. After null of capital spending, $0.0 B was left as free cash.

FY25: operating cash of $0.0 B against reported profit of $0.0 B, leaving free cash of $0.0 B after null of capital spending. Across the last 3 fiscal years the conversion rate is 67% of profit.

Cash-flow readings here are annual — that is the resolution our series carries, so this section moves once a year.

🚨 Why: conversion is measured cleanly, but the working-capital day-counts behind it sit below what we hold — the move is shown without inventing its driver.

Router verdict: no single sink dominates — the next section checks both the working-capital cycle and the capital spending.

→ So follow the cash to where it goes.

Where the cash goes Working capital is the cash tied up between paying suppliers and getting paid: debtor days (customers owe), inventory days (stock waits), and the cash conversion cycle (the whole loop, in days of sales).

Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance, Inc. does not report the debtor, inventory and payable day-counts a cash cycle is built from, so this section reads the investment side instead. Nothing is estimated in place of the missing day-counts, so no cash-cycle chart is drawn.

Working-capital day-counts are not in our numbers for this stock, so this section reads the investment side — where the cash is being put to work.

The synthesis: neither the cycle nor the build-out is hoarding the cash — the machine is reasonably clean.

→ Does all this activity actually earn its cost of capital? Next: ROE is 10%.

Return on equity Return on equity (ROE) is the profit the business earns on its shareholders’ money. With the full capital-employed split not in our numbers, ROE is the cleanest long ladder we can draw here.

Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance, Inc. earns a ROE of 13% in FY25. That is up from a trough of 12% in FY22. A return-on-invested-capital spread against the cost of capital is not computable from what is held here. The wiring behind it is 80.0% net margin on 0.12× asset turns.

FY25 ROE is 13%, recovered from a FY22 trough of 12% — the full ladder below shows the fall and the climb, undoctored.

Why the return is what it is — the wiring (FY25): 80.0% net margin × 0.12× asset turns × 1.35× balance-sheet leverage ≈ 13.0% on equity. Margin is doing the heavy lifting; leverage is modest — this is an earned return, not a borrowed one.

→ Returns like these — is the balance sheet borrowing to make them? Next: debt-to-equity is 0.38.

Dividend A dividend is cash paid out per share. Dividend per share is the declared amount for the period; the trailing twelve-month total is the four most recent quarters added together.

Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance, Inc. paid $1.88 per share over the last four reported quarters. The most recent declaration was $0.47 for Mar 26. Against the current price of $10.1 that is a trailing yield of 18.63%, measured on dividends already paid rather than on a forecast.

Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance, Inc. paid $1.88 per share over the last four reported quarters. The most recent declaration was $0.47 for Mar 26. Against the current price of $10.1 that is a trailing yield of 18.63%, measured on dividends already paid rather than on a forecast.

Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance, Inc. paid $1.88 per share across the last four reported quarters, most recently $0.47 for Mar 26. Against the current price of $10.1 the trailing twelve months work out to 18.63% — trailing dividends measured against today's price, not a forward estimate.

→ A payout is cash leaving the business. Next: what the balance sheet looks like behind it.

Debt Debt-to-equity says how much of the business is funded by borrowings. Low is the safe corner; the trend matters as much as the level.

Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance, Inc. carries total debt of $0.1 B against shareholder equity of $0.3 B as of Mar 26, a debt-to-equity of 0.17 — effectively unlevered. On the annual view that ratio went from 0.00 in FY21 to 0.16 in FY25. The returns elsewhere on this page are therefore earned rather than borrowed.

Mar 26: total debt of $0.1 B against shareholder equity of $0.3 B — a debt-to-equity of 0.17. On the annual view, debt-to-equity went from 0.00 (FY21) to 0.16 (FY25). The returns on this page are earned, not borrowed.

→ Who owns this, and are they adding or leaving? Next: short interest is 5.0% of the float.

Ownership There is no quarter-by-quarter holder register to read here, so we read the crowd through short interest — the slice of tradable shares currently sold short, positioned for a fall.

5.0% of Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance, Inc.'s tradable float is currently sold short — some money is positioned against it. At typical trading volumes those positions would take about 5.3 days to buy back. There is no quarter-by-quarter holder register to read for this filer, so the crowd is read through short interest instead.

The latest reading: 5.0% of the float is sold short, and at typical trading volumes it would take about 5.3 days to buy those positions back. Some money is positioned against it. This is a single point-in-time reading — we do not yet hold its history, so we show no trend chart.

Why it sits there: who is doing the shorting, and why, does not travel with the number — the level is shown without inventing its story.

→ One last check: does the safety math agree? Next: the balance-sheet safety line.

Safety line The Z-score estimates how far a company sits from balance-sheet distress — above roughly 3 is safe, below roughly 1.8 is the danger zone. It was built for manufacturers, so it is not applied to banks and lenders.

Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance, Inc.: the Z-score is not available for this stock, so we say so rather than invent one. It is a distance-to-distress estimate from the balance sheet, not a forecast of failure. The debt, cash-flow and return sections above carry the balance-sheet evidence this page does hold, and each of them states its own reporting date.

The safety line in one sentence: the Z-score is not available for this stock, so we say so rather than invent one.

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