Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc.

Price story Before the numbers, the tape. A stock price moves through four repeating seasons: a flat base (stage 1), an advance (2), a top (3), a decline (4). Where the price sits in that cycle frames everything below.

Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc. trades at $7.5, between stages. That is −7.6% against its own 200-day average. It sits at 13% of a 52-week range of $7 to $9. On relative strength it is currently behind the S&P 500 on a trailing-13-week view (16 weeks and counting).

Today the stock is between stages. At $7.5 it trades −7.6% versus its 200-day average and sits at 13% of its 52-week range ($7–$9).

Against the market, two honest reads. Cumulative: over the last 1.0 years the stock moved −2% while the S&P 500 moved +19% — behind the index over the full window. Recent form: on a trailing-13-week view the stock is currently behind (16 weeks and counting; last ahead the week of 2026-04-10) — the ribbon below is that same metric, week by week.

What would end the trend, mechanically: two Friday closes in a row below the 200-day line. That is the exit rule — no debates.

→ The trend is one thing; the bill is another. Are you paying up for it? Next: the P/E sits at the 46th percentile of its own range.

Valuation P/E is the price of $1 of annual profit: how many dollars the market pays for each dollar the company earns in a year.

Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc. trades at 11.0× P/E, mid-range by its own standards (46th percentile). Its long-run median P/E is 11.3×, measured across 1.0 years of weekly readings. This places the multiple against the stock’s own record, and says nothing about what the business is worth.

Today's P/E of 11.0× is mid-range by its own standards (46th percentile), against a long-run median of 11.3× measured over 1.0 years of weekly readings. This is a comparison against the stock's own history — not a claim about what it is worth.

Why the multiple sits where it does: over the past year annual EPS moved +103.1% against a −2.5% price move — earnings outran the price, pushing the multiple DOWN its own range.

Put together: the multiple is unremarkable against its own past, so the story rests on the earnings line underneath it, not the multiple.

→ Cheap or dear rides on the earnings. Are they actually growing? Next: the fundamental stage — where the business sits in its arc, and how growth has compounded.

Stage: No read Every business sits somewhere on a fundamental arc, and this page names the spot before anything else. The last twelve quarters of revenue, profit and EPS growth — plus the return the business earns on its capital — are read as curves: Deteriorating (the curves are falling), Turning around (a trough has just formed and the last few quarters lift off it), Improving (the climb off the trough is sustained), Consistent (steadily positive with healthy returns), Topping out (still high but decelerating from the peak). When the curves genuinely disagree the read is Mixed; too little history is No read. CAGR (compound annual growth rate) is the smooth yearly pace that turns the starting value into the latest one — the fairest way to compare growth across different time spans. Read the columns together: if the 1-year number towers over the 10-year, recent growth is running hotter than the long-run trend. A dash means that window is not held, or the base year was a loss (where a growth rate is not meaningful).

Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc. reads as no read on its fundamental arc. Under eight usable quarters on the growth trio — not enough history for an honest trajectory read. The read is built from 8 quarters across 2 curves, on partial evidence.

Why it matters: with too little history, an honest page says so instead of guessing a trajectory.

One or more growth curves carry a base-effect spike — a large year-on-year move off a near-zero or loss-making comparable quarter. Those spikes are capped before the classifier reads the trajectory, and shown pinned on the chart, so a single distorted quarter does not drive the stage call.

Return readings here are annual, not quarterly — read as level and direction only; they can confirm the growth curves but never drive the stage on their own.

Fewer than eight usable quarters on the growth curves — this page will not guess a trajectory from a stub of history.

→ The stage names the trajectory. Next: the revenue line that produces it, quarter by quarter.

4-Factor Sector Score

70.9/100 — rank 1 of 29 in REIT - Mortgage · 70% evidence confidence

Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc. scores 70.9 out of 100 against the 29 companies it is compared with in REIT - Mortgage, ranking 1. Balanced evidence: keep at normal research priority and require another comparable period before raising conviction.

The four contributions add to the total exactly: 25.9 + 19.6 + 15.6 + 9.8 = 70.9. This is the SAME number shown on the sector comparison — it is computed once, for the whole peer set, and read here.

What would change it: The read weakens if ROA rolls over or gross NPA rises while sector-relative strength deteriorates.

Revenue Revenue is the top line: everything the company billed its customers in the period.

Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc. reported $−0.0 B of revenue in the Mar 26 quarter, −200.0% year on year. The last full year, FY25, came in at $0.1 B. The last four reported quarters add to $0.1 B. A multi-year compound rate is not shown because the annual history behind it is too short to compute one honestly.

Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc. reported $−0.0 B of revenue in the Mar 26 quarter, −200.0% year on year. The last full year, FY25, came in at $0.1 B. The last four reported quarters add to $0.1 B. A multi-year compound rate is not shown because the annual history behind it is too short to compute one honestly.

FY25 revenue came in at $0.1 B (+50.0% on the year). The latest quarter (Mar 26) printed $−0.0 B, −200.0% year on year.

Acceleration check: trailing-twelve-month revenue grew +14.3% over the last 4 quarters against +182.8%/yr over the last 8 — rolling over.

→ Revenue slipped — did margins hold as it scaled? Next: the margin picture.

Operating margin Operating margin is what is left of every $100 of sales after running the business, before interest and tax. It is the cleanest read on pricing power and cost control.

A clean operating margin is not in our numbers for Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc. — its accounts do not report the operating-profit line this section reads, which is common for lenders and holding companies. The sections above and below carry the readings this company's filings do support.

A clean operating margin is not in our numbers for Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc. — its accounts do not report the operating-profit line this section reads, which is common for lenders and holding companies. The sections above and below carry the readings this company's filings do support.

This company's accounts do not report the operating-profit line this section reads — common for lenders and holding companies classified outside the financial bucket. The revenue and net-profit sections are the cleaner reads for Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc..

Why: the numbers show the operating margin move clearly, but the cost lines behind it sit below what we hold — so we state the move without inventing its driver.

→ Margins slipped — did that reach the bottom line? Next: profit −200.0% in the latest quarter.

Net profit Net profit is what survives every cost, interest and tax — the number EPS, dividends and book value all grow from.

Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc. posted a net loss of $0.02 B in the Mar 26 quarter. Full-year FY25 profit was $0.1 B. That loss is 100.0% of the quarter's revenue. The same quarter a year earlier earned $0.0 B. 4 of the last 12 reported quarters were loss-making.

Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc. posted a net loss of $0.02 B in the Mar 26 quarter. Full-year FY25 profit was $0.1 B. That loss is 100.0% of the quarter's revenue. The same quarter a year earlier earned $0.0 B. 4 of the last 12 reported quarters were loss-making.

Mar 26 profit was $−0.0 B, −200.0% year on year. On the full year, FY25 printed $0.1 B (+66.7%).

→ Profit rose — but did the cash follow? Next: 212% of the last 2 years' profit arrived as cash.

Cash flow — the router The P&L says what was earned; the cash-flow statement says what actually arrived. Operating cash flow (CFO) against profit is the cleanest lie detector in the accounts.

Over the last 2 fiscal years 212% of Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc.'s reported profit arrived as operating cash — the cash follows the profit. In FY25 that was $0.2 B of operating cash against $0.1 B of profit. Cash resolution here is annual, because quarterly cash statements are not published.

FY25: operating cash of $0.2 B against reported profit of $0.1 B. Across the last 2 fiscal years the conversion rate is 212% of profit.

Cash-flow readings here are annual — that is the resolution our series carries, so this section moves once a year.

Why: conversion is measured cleanly, but the working-capital day-counts behind it sit below what we hold — the move is shown without inventing its driver.

Router verdict: no single sink dominates — the next section checks both the working-capital cycle and the capital spending.

→ So follow the cash to where it goes.

Where the cash goes Working capital is the cash tied up between paying suppliers and getting paid: debtor days (customers owe), inventory days (stock waits), and the cash conversion cycle (the whole loop, in days of sales).

Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc. does not report the debtor, inventory and payable day-counts a cash cycle is built from, so this section reads the investment side instead. Nothing is estimated in place of the missing day-counts, so no cash-cycle chart is drawn.

Working-capital day-counts are not in our numbers for this stock, so this section reads the investment side — where the cash is being put to work.

The synthesis: neither the cycle nor the build-out is hoarding the cash — the machine is reasonably clean.

→ Does all this activity actually earn its cost of capital? Next: ROE is 8%.

Return on equity Return on equity (ROE) is the profit the business earns on its shareholders’ money. With the full capital-employed split not in our numbers, ROE is the cleanest long ladder we can draw here.

Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc. earns a ROE of 13% in FY25. That is up from a trough of −50% in FY22. A return-on-invested-capital spread against the cost of capital is not computable from what is held here. The wiring behind it is 83.3% net margin on 0.02× asset turns.

FY25 ROE is 13%, recovered from a FY22 trough of −50% — the full ladder below shows the fall and the climb, undoctored.

Why the return is what it is — the wiring (FY25): 83.3% net margin × 0.02× asset turns × 8.10× balance-sheet leverage ≈ 13.5% on equity. Margin is doing the heavy lifting; leverage is a meaningful part of the equation.

→ Returns like these — is the balance sheet borrowing to make them? Next: debt-to-equity is 6.13.

Dividend

Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc. pays no dividend. Across the last 12 reported quarters it has declared no dividend per share, so there is no payout history to chart and no yield to quote. Companies at this stage typically reinvest earnings rather than distribute them, which makes the cash-flow and reinvestment sections the place that cash shows up.

Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc. does not currently pay a dividend. Across the last 12 reported quarters the company has declared no dividend per share, so there is no payout history to chart and no yield to quote. Companies at this stage typically reinvest earnings instead of distributing them.

→ No payout to follow. The cash question becomes what the business does with what it earns instead.

Debt Debt-to-equity says how much of the business is funded by borrowings; interest cover says how many times operating profit pays the interest bill. Low and high, respectively, is the safe corner.

Debt-to-equity is 6.13 at the latest reading — carrying real leverage; a full borrowings history is not in our numbers.

We hold only the latest reading here: a debt-to-equity of 6.13 — a level of leverage that amplifies both the returns above and the risk. A year-by-year borrowings ladder is not in our numbers for this stock, so we say that rather than draw a chart we cannot support.

→ Who owns this, and are they adding or leaving? Next: short interest is 9.4% of the float.

Ownership There is no quarter-by-quarter holder register to read here, so we read the crowd through short interest — the slice of tradable shares currently sold short, positioned for a fall.

9.4% of Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc.'s tradable float is currently sold short — some money is positioned against it. At typical trading volumes those positions would take about 3.0 days to buy back. There is no quarter-by-quarter holder register to read for this filer, so the crowd is read through short interest instead.

The latest reading: 9.4% of the float is sold short, and at typical trading volumes it would take about 3.0 days to buy those positions back. Some money is positioned against it. This is a single point-in-time reading — we do not yet hold its history, so we show no trend chart.

Why it sits there: who is doing the shorting, and why, does not travel with the number — the level is shown without inventing its story.

→ One last check: does the safety math agree? Next: the balance-sheet safety line.

Safety line The Z-score estimates how far a company sits from balance-sheet distress — above roughly 3 is safe, below roughly 1.8 is the danger zone. It was built for manufacturers, so it is not applied to banks and lenders.

Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc.: the Z-score is not available for this stock, so we say so rather than invent one. It is a distance-to-distress estimate from the balance sheet, not a forecast of failure. The debt, cash-flow and return sections above carry the balance-sheet evidence this page does hold, and each of them states its own reporting date.

The safety line in one sentence: the Z-score is not available for this stock, so we say so rather than invent one.

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