Patel Retail Ltd
PATELRMARTPatel Retail Ltd's earnings have outrun its stock. EPS grew +15.1% in a year against a −16.9% price move.
The sharpest disagreement: profits are rising, but only −34% of the last 3 years' profit arrived as operating cash — the gap between the P&L and the bank account is the thing to watch.
The price is in a downtrend (47 weeks in) while the P/E sits at the 66th percentile of its own 1-year range. Underneath, the last four quarters read improving — profit +39.0% year on year, and −34% of the last 3 years' profit arrived as cash. What settles it: whether the cash starts following the profit.
Price story Before the numbers, the tape. A stock price moves through four repeating seasons: a flat base (stage 1), an advance (2), a top (3), a decline (4). Where the price sits in that cycle frames everything below.
Patel Retail Ltd trades at ₹218, in a downtrend and 47 weeks into that stage. That is +1.8% against its own 200-day average. It sits at 59% of a 52-week range of ₹154 to ₹262. On relative strength it has been ahead of the NIFTY 500 on a trailing-13-week view for 4 straight weeks.
Today the stock is in a downtrend — week 47 of stage 4. At ₹218 it trades +1.8% versus its 200-day average and sits at 59% of its 52-week range (₹154–₹262).
Against the market, two honest reads. Cumulative: over the last 11 months the stock moved −17% while the NIFTY 500 moved +2% — behind the index over the full window. Recent form: on a trailing-13-week view the stock has been ahead for 4 straight weeks — the ribbon below is that same metric, week by week.
What would end the trend, mechanically: two Friday closes in a row below the 200-day line. That is the exit rule — no debates.
→ The trend is one thing; the bill is another. Are you paying up for it? Next: the P/E sits at the 66th percentile of its own range.
Valuation P/E is the price of ₹1 of annual profit: how many rupees the market pays for each rupee the company earns in a year.
Patel Retail Ltd trades at 19.1× P/E, mid-range by its own standards (66th percentile). Its long-run median P/E is 18.2×, measured across 0.9 years of weekly readings. This places the multiple against the stock’s own record, and says nothing about what the business is worth.
Today's P/E of 19.1× is mid-range by its own standards (66th percentile), against a long-run median of 18.2× measured over 0.9 years of weekly readings. This is a comparison against the stock's own history — not a claim about what it is worth.
Why the multiple sits where it does: over the past year annual EPS moved +15.1% against a −16.9% price move — earnings outran the price, pushing the multiple DOWN its own range.
Put together: the multiple is full against its own past, so the story rests on the earnings line underneath it, not the multiple.
→ Cheap or dear rides on the earnings. Are they actually growing? Next: the fundamental stage — where the business sits in its arc, and how growth has compounded.
Stage: No read Every business sits somewhere on a fundamental arc, and this page names the spot before anything else. The last twelve quarters of revenue, profit and EPS growth — plus the return the business earns on its capital — are read as curves: Deteriorating (the curves are falling), Turning around (a trough has just formed and the last few quarters lift off it), Improving (the climb off the trough is sustained), Consistent (steadily positive with healthy returns), Topping out (still high but decelerating from the peak). When the curves genuinely disagree the read is Mixed; too little history is No read. CAGR (compound annual growth rate) is the smooth yearly pace that turns the starting value into the latest one — the fairest way to compare growth across different time spans. Read the columns together: if the 1-year number towers over the 10-year, recent growth is running hotter than the long-run trend. A dash means that window is not held, or the base year was a loss (where a growth rate is not meaningful).
Patel Retail Ltd reads as no read on its fundamental arc. Under eight usable quarters on the growth trio — not enough history for an honest trajectory read. The read is built from 4 quarters across 1 curve, on partial evidence.
Why it matters: with too little history, an honest page says so instead of guessing a trajectory.
One or more growth curves carry a base-effect spike — a large year-on-year move off a near-zero or loss-making comparable quarter. Those spikes are capped before the classifier reads the trajectory, and shown pinned on the chart, so a single distorted quarter does not drive the stage call.
Return readings here are annual, not quarterly — read as level and direction only; they can confirm the growth curves but never drive the stage on their own.
Fewer than eight usable quarters on the growth curves — this page will not guess a trajectory from a stub of history.
| 1yr | 3yr | 5yr | 10yr | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | +27.6% | +0.9% | +5.0% | — |
| Profit | +56.0% | +34.6% | +26.6% | — |
| EPS | +15.1% | −35.2% | −17.3% | — |
| Share price | −16.9% | — | — | — |
→ The stage names the trajectory. Next: the revenue line that produces it, quarter by quarter.
4-Factor Sector Score
50.4/100 — rank 18 of 48 in Trading · 56% evidence confidence
Patel Retail Ltd scores 50.4 out of 100 against the 48 companies it is compared with in Trading, ranking 18. Fill the missing evidence before acting; the ranking is deliberately pulled toward neutral.
The four contributions add to the total exactly: 15.8 + 13.8 + 10.8 + 10 = 50.4. This is the SAME number shown on the sector comparison — it is computed once, for the whole peer set, and read here.
What would change it: The read weakens if profit growth turns negative or margin improvement reverses while sector-relative strength deteriorates.
Revenue Revenue is the top line: everything the company billed its customers in the period.
Patel Retail Ltd reported ₹334 Cr of revenue in the Mar 26 quarter, +52.1% year on year. That is the 4th straight quarter of year-on-year growth. Over 6 years it has compounded at 8.7% a year. The last full year, FY26, came in at ₹1,048 Cr. The last four reported quarters add to ₹1,048 Cr.
Patel Retail Ltd reported ₹334 Cr of revenue in the Mar 26 quarter, +52.1% year on year. That is the 4th straight quarter of year-on-year growth. Over 6 years it has compounded at 8.7% a year. The last full year, FY26, came in at ₹1,048 Cr. The last four reported quarters add to ₹1,048 Cr.
FY26 revenue came in at ₹1,048 Cr (+27.6% on the year), capping 6 years at 8.7% compound. The latest quarter (Mar 26) printed ₹334 Cr, +52.1% year on year — the 4th consecutive quarter of year-over-year growth.
Pace check: the last four quarters averaged +26.1% growth against the decade's 8.7% — the current year is running faster than its own long-run rate.
→ Revenue grew — did margins hold as it scaled? Next: 5.2% this quarter (−1.9 pp YoY).
Operating margin Operating margin is what is left of every ₹100 of sales after running the business, before interest and tax. It is the cleanest read on pricing power and cost control.
Patel Retail Ltd's operating margin is 5.2% in the Mar 26 quarter, −1.9 percentage points against the same quarter a year ago. That is the widest this company has ever printed on a full-year basis. Across 7 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged 3.0% to 7.0%. The current quarter sits inside that band.
Patel Retail Ltd's operating margin is 5.2% in the Mar 26 quarter, −1.9 percentage points against the same quarter a year ago. That is the widest this company has ever printed on a full-year basis. Across 7 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged 3.0% to 7.0%. The current quarter sits inside that band.
The latest quarter's operating margin is 5.2%, −1.9 pp against the same quarter a year ago. Across 7 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged 3.0%–7.0%, and FY26's 7.0% is the top of that band — a record year.
🚨 Why the margin moved: operating margin went −1.9 pp year on year while gross margin went −5.9 pp — the loss came mostly from the gross line: input costs and pricing.
Worth repeating from the valuation section: cheap against its own history on record margins is not the same thing as cheap — a record margin flatters every ratio built on top of it.
→ Margins slipped — did that reach the bottom line? Next: profit +39.0% in the latest quarter.
Net profit Net profit is what survives every cost, interest and tax — the number EPS, dividends and book value all grow from.
Patel Retail Ltd earned ₹10.0 Cr of net profit in the Mar 26 quarter, +39.0% year on year. It is the 4th consecutive quarter of growth. Full-year FY26 profit was ₹39.0 Cr. The 6-year compound rate is 33.1%. That is 3.0% of the quarter's revenue. The same quarter a year earlier earned ₹7.2 Cr.
Patel Retail Ltd earned ₹10.0 Cr of net profit in the Mar 26 quarter, +39.0% year on year. It is the 4th consecutive quarter of growth. Full-year FY26 profit was ₹39.0 Cr. The 6-year compound rate is 33.1%. That is 3.0% of the quarter's revenue. The same quarter a year earlier earned ₹7.2 Cr.
Mar 26 profit was ₹10.0 Cr, +39.0% year on year — the 4th consecutive quarter of growth. On the full year, FY26 printed ₹39.0 Cr (+56.0%), and the 6-year compound rate is 33.1%.
Why profit moved: revenue contributed +52.1% and the margin −1.9 pp — the quarter was revenue-led, with the margin roughly flat.
Pace comparison, last four quarters: profit +55.3% vs revenue +26.1%. Profit is growing faster than sales — fixed costs are being spread over a bigger base, and each extra rupee of revenue drops more to the bottom line.
→ Profit rose — but did the cash follow? Next: −34% of the last 3 years' profit arrived as cash.
Cash flow — the router The P&L says what was earned; the cash-flow statement says what actually arrived. Operating cash flow (CFO) against profit is the cleanest lie detector in the accounts.
Over the last 3 fiscal years −34% of Patel Retail Ltd's reported profit arrived as operating cash — a gap worth watching. In FY26 that was ₹−83.0 Cr of operating cash against ₹39.0 Cr of profit. After ₹62.0 Cr of capital spending, ₹−145 Cr was left as free cash.
FY26: operating cash of ₹−83.0 Cr against reported profit of ₹39.0 Cr, leaving free cash of ₹−145 Cr after ₹62.0 Cr of capital spending. Across the last 3 fiscal years the conversion rate is −34% of profit.
Cash-flow readings here are annual — that is the resolution our series carries, so this section moves once a year.
🚨 Why conversion sits at −34%: the cash cycle stretched 69 days between FY21 and FY26 — more of each rupee of profit waits inside the cycle before arriving. Less than 70% of profit arriving as cash is the thing to watch on this page.
Router verdict: conversion is below par and the cash cycle has stretched 69 days — the next section's job is to find where the cash is stuck.
→ So follow the cash to where it goes. Next: the 128-day cycle, in money terms.
Where the cash goes Working capital is the cash tied up between paying suppliers and getting paid: debtor days (customers owe), inventory days (stock waits), and the cash conversion cycle (the whole loop, in days of sales).
Patel Retail Ltd's cash conversion cycle runs 128 days in FY26, up from 59 days in FY21. Capital spending ran ₹88.0 Cr over the last 3 years. At FY26 sales of ₹1,048 Cr each day of that cycle holds about ₹2.9 Cr, so roughly ₹368 Cr sits inside the business at any moment.
FY26: debtors at 56 days, inventory at 109 days — roughly 3.6 months of stock waiting to sell; that is where the cash sits while it waits — for a full cycle of 128 days, looser than FY21's 59.
The full loop: cash goes out to suppliers and production on day 0; stock waits 109 days to sell; customers pay about 56 days after that; and suppliers themselves are paid at 37 days — netting out to the 128-day cycle.
In money terms: at FY26 sales of ₹1,048 Cr, each day of the cycle holds about ₹2.9 Cr — so the 128-day loop keeps roughly ₹368 Cr sitting inside the business at any moment.
On the investment side: capital spending of ₹88.0 Cr over the last 3 fiscal years against ₹40.0 Cr of depreciation — the company is building well ahead of wear-and-tear. Capital work-in-progress stands at ₹1.0 Cr (FY26) — capacity paid for but not yet earning.
The synthesis: the working-capital loop is the cash sink the router flagged — watch the cycle, not the P&L.
→ Does all this activity actually earn its cost of capital? Next: ROCE is 15% and the ROIC − WACC spread is −3.3 pp.
Return on capital Return on capital employed (ROCE) is the profit the whole business earns on all the money in it — equity and debt together. It is the single best test of whether growth creates value or just size.⚠ unverified
Patel Retail Ltd earns a ROCE of 15% in FY26. That is up from a trough of 10% in FY22. Return on invested capital clears the cost of that capital by −3.3 percentage points, so growth here is not yet paying for the capital it uses. The wiring behind it is 3.7% net margin on 1.69× asset turns.
FY26 ROCE is 15%, recovered from a FY22 trough of 10% — the full ladder below shows the fall and the climb, undoctored.
🚨 Why the return is what it is — the wiring (FY26): 3.7% net margin × 1.69× asset turns × 1.71× balance-sheet leverage ≈ 10.7% on equity. Margin does its share; leverage is a meaningful part of the equation.
The capstone test — ROIC − WACC: 8.7% − 12.0% = a −3.3 pp spread. The 12.0% is a standing assumption for the cost of capital in India, not a per-stock estimate — read the sign and the size of the spread, not the decimals. Negative — growth at these returns destroys value until the returns recover.
→ Returns like these — is the balance sheet borrowing to make them? Next: debt-to-equity is 0.45.
Debt Debt-to-equity says how much of the business is funded by borrowings. Low is the safe corner; the trend matters as much as the level.⚠ unverified
Patel Retail Ltd carries total debt of ₹163 Cr against shareholder equity of ₹364 Cr as of Mar 26, a debt-to-equity of 0.45. On the annual view that ratio went from 2.00 in FY24 to 0.45 in FY26. Read the returns elsewhere on this page with that leverage in mind.
Mar 26: total debt of ₹163 Cr against shareholder equity of ₹364 Cr — a debt-to-equity of 0.45. On the annual view, debt-to-equity went from 2.00 (FY24) to 0.45 (FY26). Read the returns on this page with that leverage in mind.
→ Who owns this, and are they adding or leaving? Next: the register is quiet.
Ownership Who owns the stock, quarter by quarter: promoters (the controlling owners), foreign and domestic institutions, and the public. Steady accumulation by people close to the numbers is a signal; a quiet register is also an answer.
No holder of Patel Retail Ltd moved a full percentage point over the last two years — the register is quiet. The register is read on the four disclosed classes only; nothing is inferred between filings.
The register over the last two years — .
→ One last check: does the safety math agree? Next: the balance-sheet safety line.
Safety line The Z-score estimates how far a company sits from balance-sheet distress — above roughly 3 is safe, below roughly 1.8 is the danger zone. It was built for manufacturers, so it is not applied to banks and lenders.
Patel Retail Ltd: the Z-score is not available for this stock, so we say so rather than invent one. It is a distance-to-distress estimate from the balance sheet, not a forecast of failure. The debt, cash-flow and return sections above carry the balance-sheet evidence this page does hold, and each of them states its own reporting date.
The safety line in one sentence: the Z-score is not available for this stock, so we say so rather than invent one.
| Company | P/E | Mkt cap | Revenue | EPS | ROCE | Stage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patel Retail Ltd this page | 19.1× | ₹746 Cr | No read | |||
| Adani Enterprises Ltd | — | ₹4.1L Cr | Mixed | |||
| Lloyds Enterprises Ltd | 1,079.0× | ₹11,894 Cr | Turning around | |||
| RRP Semiconductor Ltd | — | ₹11,877 Cr | No read | |||
| MMTC Ltd | 92.2× | ₹9,228 Cr | No read | |||
| SG Mart Ltd | 72.3× | ₹8,993 Cr | Mixed | |||
| Rashi Peripherals Ltd | 18.5× | ₹5,139 Cr | Consistent | |||
| PTC India Ltd | 8.0× | ₹4,866 Cr | Mixed | |||
| Euro Pratik Sales Ltd | 37.2× | ₹3,083 Cr | No read | |||
| Shankara Buildpro Ltd | 23.1× | ₹2,998 Cr | No read | |||
| Blue Pearl Agriventures Ltd | 5,705.0× | ₹2,795 Cr | No read | |||
| BN Agrochem Ltd | 78.2× | ₹2,688 Cr | No read | |||
| Onix Solar Energy Ltd | 34.7× | ₹2,300 Cr | No read | |||
| Aayush Art and Bullion Ltd | 227.0× | ₹1,790 Cr | No read | |||
| Onix Solar Energy Ltd | 117.0× | ₹1,779 Cr | No read | |||
| Kothari Industrial Corporation Ltd | — | ₹1,761 Cr | No read | |||
| Kothari Industrial Corporation Ltd | — | ₹1,728 Cr | No read | |||
| Aayush Art and Bullion Ltd | 882.0× | ₹1,702 Cr | Mixed | |||
| Keto Motors Ltd | — | ₹1,603 Cr | No read | |||
| Le Merite Exports Ltd | 87.0× | ₹1,177 Cr | — | — | — | — |
| Arisinfra Solutions Ltd | 18.5× | ₹1,007 Cr | No read | |||
| Sudarshan Pharma Industries Ltd | 43.2× | ₹1,006 Cr | No read | |||
| Tembo Global Industries Ltd | 10.8× | ₹984 Cr | Mixed | |||
| A-1 Ltd | 383.0× | ₹947 Cr | Deteriorating | |||
| Bizotic Commercial Ltd | 86.4× | ₹936 Cr | — | — | — | — |
| Neueon Corporation Ltd | — | ₹930 Cr | No read | |||
| Shah Foods Ltd | 276.0× | ₹908 Cr | — | — | — | — |
| Hexa Tradex Ltd | — | ₹857 Cr | No read | |||
| Dhunseri Ventures Ltd | 9.4× | ₹854 Cr | Deteriorating | |||
| Vision Infra Equipment Solutions Ltd | 24.9× | ₹774 Cr | — | — | — | — |
| Hardwyn India Ltd | 58.5× | ₹773 Cr | Improving | |||
| Yogi Ltd | 36.9× | ₹765 Cr | No read | |||
| Yogi Ltd | 39.1× | ₹741 Cr | No read | |||
| Nupur Recyclers Ltd | 51.0× | ₹725 Cr | Mixed | |||
| Mardia Samyoung Capillary Tubes Company Ltd | 687.0× | ₹707 Cr | No read | |||
| State Trading Corporation of India Ltd | 15.9× | ₹707 Cr | No read | |||
| Uniphos Enterprises Ltd | 33.0× | ₹683 Cr | No read | |||
| Cropster Agro Ltd | 43.7× | ₹679 Cr | No read | |||
| Fabtech Technologies Ltd | 13.7× | ₹666 Cr | No read | |||
| Sudarshan Pharma Industries Ltd | 28.7× | ₹609 Cr | No read |
Frequently asked questions
What is Patel Retail Ltd's share price today?
Patel Retail Ltd trades at ₹218, −16.9% over the past year. The company is valued at ₹746 Cr. The stock sits at 59% of its 52-week range of ₹154–₹262, +1.8% versus its 200-day average. On the tape, the price is in a downtrend, 47 weeks in. — as of 24 July 2026.
What were Patel Retail Ltd's latest quarterly results?
Patel Retail Ltd reported revenue of ₹334 Cr and net profit of ₹10.0 Cr for the Mar 26 quarter. Revenue rose 52.1% and profit rose 39.0% year on year. Earnings per share were ₹2.99. The operating margin was 5.2%, 1.9 pp lower than a year earlier. — as of 24 July 2026.
What is Patel Retail Ltd's revenue?
Patel Retail Ltd reported revenue of ₹334 Cr in the Mar 26 quarter, +52.1% year on year. For the full FY26 fiscal year, revenue was ₹1,048 Cr (+27.6%). Over the last 6 years revenue compounded at 8.7% a year. — as of 24 July 2026.
What is Patel Retail Ltd's profit?
Patel Retail Ltd earned ₹10.0 Cr of net profit in the Mar 26 quarter, +39.0% year on year — the 4th straight quarter of growth. Full-year FY26 profit was ₹39.0 Cr. The operating margin ran 5.2% in the latest quarter. — as of 24 July 2026.
What is Patel Retail Ltd's market cap?
Patel Retail Ltd's market capitalisation is ₹746 Cr at a share price of ₹218. Market cap is the share price multiplied by shares outstanding, so it is restated whenever the price moves. — as of 24 July 2026.
What is Patel Retail Ltd's P/E ratio?
Patel Retail Ltd trades at a P/E of 19.1×, at the 66th percentile of its own 1-year range, against a long-run median of 18.2×. This is a comparison with the stock's own history, not a value call — as of 24 July 2026.
Does Patel Retail Ltd pay a dividend?
No — Patel Retail Ltd has recorded a dividend payout of 0% of profit in each of its last 7 reported fiscal years, so there is no payout history to quote. That is a reading of the filed annual statements, not an estimate. — as of 24 July 2026.
Is Patel Retail Ltd overvalued?
On its own history, Patel Retail Ltd looks expensive against its own history: its P/E of 19.1× sits at the 66th percentile of its 1-year range (long-run median 18.2×). That is a percentile read against the stock's own past, not a price opinion or a direction call. One caveat: margins are the best this company has ever printed — cheap on record margins is not the same thing as cheap. — as of 24 July 2026.
Is Patel Retail Ltd growing?
Yes — Patel Retail Ltd is growing: latest-quarter revenue +52.1% year on year, profit +39.0%, and the margin −1.9 pp at 5.2%. The 6-year compound rates are 8.7% (revenue) and 33.1% (profit). The earnings engine currently reads: improving — as of 24 July 2026.
How is Patel Retail Ltd performing?
Patel Retail Ltd is in a downtrend, 47 weeks in. Its latest quarter's revenue rose 52.1% and profit rose 39.0% year on year. Against the NIFTY 500 it has been ahead on a trailing-13-week view for 4 weeks. This describes what the data did, not a rating. — as of 24 July 2026.
Is Patel Retail Ltd in an uptrend?
No — the price is in a downtrend (week 47 of stage 4), trading +1.8% versus its 200-day average and at 59% of its 52-week range. Price stages cycle base → advance → top → decline, and the stage names where this stock sits in that cycle — as of 24 July 2026.
Is Patel Retail Ltd beating the market?
On recent form, yes — Patel Retail Ltd has been ahead of the NIFTY 500 on a trailing-13-week view for 4 straight weeks, the same metric the week-by-week ribbon on this page draws. Separately, on the cumulative view: over the last 11 months the stock moved −17% against the NIFTY 500's +2% — behind the index over the full window. — as of 24 July 2026.
Will Patel Retail Ltd's share price go up?
This page publishes no price forecast for Patel Retail Ltd. What it measures instead: the share price is ₹218, the price is in a downtrend 47 weeks in. Its P/E of 19.1× sits at the 66th percentile of its own 1-year range. — as of 24 July 2026.
Who owns Patel Retail Ltd?
Promoters hold 70.0% of Patel Retail Ltd, foreign institutions 1.5%, domestic institutions 3.0% and the public 25.5% (latest quarter). No holder moved a full point over the last two years — the register is quiet. — as of 24 July 2026.
Does Patel Retail Ltd have too much debt?
It is moderate — Patel Retail Ltd's debt-to-equity is 0.45, and operating profit covers the interest bill 6×. FY26 borrowings were ₹163 Cr against equity of ₹363 Cr. Read the returns on this page with that leverage in mind — as of 24 July 2026.
What is Patel Retail Ltd's capex?
Patel Retail Ltd spent ₹88.0 Cr on capital expenditure over the last 3 fiscal years, a figure derived from the change in fixed assets plus depreciation. In FY26 alone that was ₹62.0 Cr, with ₹1.0 Cr in capital work-in-progress — capacity paid for but not yet earning. — as of 24 July 2026.
What is Patel Retail Ltd's cash flow?
Patel Retail Ltd generated ₹−83.0 Cr of operating cash flow in FY26 and ₹−145 Cr of free cash flow after ₹62.0 Cr of capital spending. Reported profit that year was ₹39.0 Cr, so operating cash ran behind profit. Cash-flow resolution for India is annual. — as of 24 July 2026.
Is Patel Retail Ltd's profit real cash?
Not fully — over the last 3 fiscal years, −34% of Patel Retail Ltd's reported profit arrived as operating cash. In FY26, operating cash was ₹−83.0 Cr against reported profit of ₹39.0 Cr. The cash then goes mostly into the working-capital cycle. Cash-flow resolution is annual — as of 24 July 2026.
Where is Patel Retail Ltd in its business cycle?
Patel Retail Ltd's FY26 operating margin was 7.0%, against a 7-year band of 3.0%–7.0%: the top of the band — a record year. Record profitability is late-cycle territory: every ratio flatters at the top, and the story leans on margins holding. The latest quarter ran 5.2%. Profitability versus a company's own long band is the cleanest cycle clock this page holds — as of 24 July 2026.
What could break the Patel Retail Ltd story?
The sharpest disagreement: profits are rising, but only −34% of the last 3 years' profit arrived as operating cash — the gap between the P&L and the bank account is the thing to watch. Mechanically, two Friday closes in a row below the 200-day average would end the price trend — that is the exit rule this page tracks — as of 24 July 2026.
Is Patel Retail Ltd a stock worth studying right now?
This is not investment advice. The machine read: Patel Retail Ltd's earnings have outrun its stock. EPS grew +15.1% in a year against a −16.9% price move. The sharpest open question: whether the cash starts following the profit. Every number on this page is drawn deterministically from the raw series, with no forecasts and no price opinions — as of 24 July 2026.