Paradeep Phosphates Ltd

Price story Before the numbers, the tape. A stock price moves through four repeating seasons: a flat base (stage 1), an advance (2), a top (3), a decline (4). Where the price sits in that cycle frames everything below.

Paradeep Phosphates Ltd trades at ₹140, in a downtrend and 26 weeks into that stage. That is +2.3% against its own 200-day average. It sits at 30% of a 52-week range of ₹105 to ₹220. On relative strength it has been ahead of the NIFTY 500 on a trailing-13-week view for 14 straight weeks.

Today the stock is in a downtrend — week 26 of stage 4, confirmed. At ₹140 it trades +2.3% versus its 200-day average and sits at 30% of its 52-week range (₹105–₹220).

Against the market, two honest reads. Cumulative: over the last 4.1 years the stock moved +219% while the NIFTY 500 moved +66% — ahead of the index over the full window. Recent form: on a trailing-13-week view the stock has been ahead for 14 straight weeks — the ribbon below is that same metric, week by week.

What would end the trend, mechanically: two Friday closes in a row below the 200-day line. That is the exit rule — no debates.

→ The trend is one thing; the bill is another. Are you paying up for it? Next: the P/E sits at the 37th percentile of its own range.

Valuation P/E is the price of ₹1 of annual profit: how many rupees the market pays for each rupee the company earns in a year.

Paradeep Phosphates Ltd trades at 13.8× P/E, mid-range by its own standards (37th percentile). Its long-run median P/E is 16.6×, measured across 4.2 years of weekly readings. This places the multiple against the stock’s own record, and says nothing about what the business is worth.

Today's P/E of 13.8× is mid-range by its own standards (37th percentile), against a long-run median of 16.6× measured over 4.2 years of weekly readings. This is a comparison against the stock's own history — not a claim about what it is worth.

Why the multiple sits where it does: over the past year annual EPS moved +41.8% against a −18.1% price move — earnings outran the price, pushing the multiple DOWN its own range.

The price move, decomposed: over 3y, of the +30.6%/yr price move, ~+38.1%/yr came from earnings growth and ~−7.5 pp from the multiple (compressing). The split is the honest approximate (price return minus earnings growth); it makes the rally itself visible instead of hiding it behind the percentile.

Put together: the multiple is unremarkable against its own past, so the story rests on the earnings line underneath it, not the multiple.

A quarterly PEG curve, which only the second data source carries, is not drawn on this page: its two data sources disagree by up to 24% on reported income across 14 comparable periods. A figure two sources cannot agree on is not drawn — the gap is a decision, not missing data.

→ Cheap or dear rides on the earnings. Are they actually growing? Next: the fundamental stage — where the business sits in its arc, and how growth has compounded.

Stage: Mixed Every business sits somewhere on a fundamental arc, and this page names the spot before anything else. The last twelve quarters of revenue, profit and EPS growth — plus the return the business earns on its capital — are read as curves: Deteriorating (the curves are falling), Turning around (a trough has just formed and the last few quarters lift off it), Improving (the climb off the trough is sustained), Consistent (steadily positive with healthy returns), Topping out (still high but decelerating from the peak). When the curves genuinely disagree the read is Mixed; too little history is No read. CAGR (compound annual growth rate) is the smooth yearly pace that turns the starting value into the latest one — the fairest way to compare growth across different time spans. Read the columns together: if the 1-year number towers over the 10-year, recent growth is running hotter than the long-run trend. A dash means that window is not held, or the base year was a loss (where a growth rate is not meaningful).

Paradeep Phosphates Ltd reads as mixed on its fundamental arc. Mixed — no clean majority across the growth curves, ROCE lifting at 17.0% — the per-curve reads carry the story. The read is built from 10 quarters across 3 curves, on partial evidence.

Why it matters: when the curves disagree, the per-curve reads above matter more than any single verdict.

One or more growth curves carry a base-effect spike — a large year-on-year move off a near-zero or loss-making comparable quarter. Those spikes are capped before the classifier reads the trajectory, and shown pinned on the chart, so a single distorted quarter does not drive the stage call.

Return readings here are annual, not quarterly — read as level and direction only; they can confirm the growth curves but never drive the stage on their own.

A partial read: at least one curve is short, or the returns curve is not the computed quarterly series — hold the stage word a little more loosely.

→ The stage names the trajectory. Next: the revenue line that produces it, quarter by quarter.

4-Factor Sector Score

53.1/100 — rank 4 of 15 in Fertilisers · 66% evidence confidence

Paradeep Phosphates Ltd scores 53.1 out of 100 against the 15 companies it is compared with in Fertilisers, ranking 4. Acceleration candidate, not a confirmed leader: earnings are strong but sector-relative strength is -12.4% and the one-year return is -18.1%. Do not upgrade until sector-relative strength is above zero and another reported period confirms growth.

The four contributions add to the total exactly: 23.9 + 13.1 + 10 + 6.1 = 53.1. This is the SAME number shown on the sector comparison — it is computed once, for the whole peer set, and read here.

What would change it: The read weakens if profit growth turns negative or margin improvement reverses while sector-relative strength deteriorates.

Revenue Revenue is the top line: everything the company billed its customers in the period.

Paradeep Phosphates Ltd reported ₹4,702 Cr of revenue in the Mar 26 quarter, +12.1% year on year. That is the 7th straight quarter of year-on-year growth. Over 7 years it has compounded at 25.9% a year. The last full year, FY26, came in at ₹21,826 Cr. The last four reported quarters add to ₹21,827 Cr.

Paradeep Phosphates Ltd reported ₹4,702 Cr of revenue in the Mar 26 quarter, +12.1% year on year. That is the 7th straight quarter of year-on-year growth. Over 7 years it has compounded at 25.9% a year. The last full year, FY26, came in at ₹21,826 Cr. The last four reported quarters add to ₹21,827 Cr.

FY26 revenue came in at ₹21,826 Cr (+57.9% on the year), capping 7 years at 25.9% compound. The latest quarter (Mar 26) printed ₹4,702 Cr, +12.1% year on year — the 7th consecutive quarter of year-over-year growth.

Pace check: the last four quarters averaged +41.4% growth against the decade's 25.9% — the current year is running faster than its own long-run rate.

Acceleration check: trailing-twelve-month revenue grew +34.9% over the last 4 quarters against +37.3%/yr over the last 8 — stabilising; TTM profit +55.5% vs +215.8%/yr — rolling over.

→ Revenue grew — did margins hold as it scaled? Next: 9.0% this quarter (+0.0 pp YoY).

Operating margin Operating margin is what is left of every ₹100 of sales after running the business, before interest and tax. It is the cleanest read on pricing power and cost control.

Paradeep Phosphates Ltd's operating margin is 9.0% in the Mar 26 quarter, +0.0 percentage points against the same quarter a year ago. Across 8 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged 6.0% to 11.0%. The current quarter sits inside that band.

Paradeep Phosphates Ltd's operating margin is 9.0% in the Mar 26 quarter, +0.0 percentage points against the same quarter a year ago. Across 8 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged 6.0% to 11.0%. The current quarter sits inside that band.

The latest quarter's operating margin is 9.0%, +0.0 pp against the same quarter a year ago. Across 8 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged 6.0%–11.0%.

Why the margin moved: operating margin went +0.3 pp year on year while gross margin went −3.0 pp — the gain came mostly from the gross line: input costs and pricing.

→ Margins held — did that reach the bottom line? Next: profit −9.3% in the latest quarter.

Net profit Net profit is what survives every cost, interest and tax — the number EPS, dividends and book value all grow from.

Paradeep Phosphates Ltd earned ₹156 Cr of net profit in the Mar 26 quarter, −9.3% year on year. Full-year FY26 profit was ₹996 Cr. The 7-year compound rate is 30.0%. That is 3.3% of the quarter's revenue. The same quarter a year earlier earned ₹172 Cr. 1 of the last 12 reported quarters were loss-making.

Paradeep Phosphates Ltd earned ₹156 Cr of net profit in the Mar 26 quarter, −9.3% year on year. Full-year FY26 profit was ₹996 Cr. The 7-year compound rate is 30.0%. That is 3.3% of the quarter's revenue. The same quarter a year earlier earned ₹172 Cr. 1 of the last 12 reported quarters were loss-making.

Mar 26 profit was ₹156 Cr, −9.3% year on year. On the full year, FY26 printed ₹996 Cr (+80.4%), and the 7-year compound rate is 30.0%.

🚨 Why profit moved: revenue contributed +12.1% and the margin +0.0 pp — the quarter was revenue-led, with the margin roughly flat.

Pace comparison, last four quarters: profit +1,563.0% vs revenue +41.4%. Profit is growing faster than sales — fixed costs are being spread over a bigger base, and each extra rupee of revenue drops more to the bottom line.

→ Profit rose — but did the cash follow? Next: 110% of the last 3 years' profit arrived as cash.

Cash flow — the router The P&L says what was earned; the cash-flow statement says what actually arrived. Operating cash flow (CFO) against profit is the cleanest lie detector in the accounts.

Over the last 3 fiscal years 110% of Paradeep Phosphates Ltd's reported profit arrived as operating cash — the cash follows the profit. In FY26 that was ₹−1,012 Cr of operating cash against ₹996 Cr of profit. After ₹2,951 Cr of capital spending, ₹−3,963 Cr was left as free cash.

FY26: operating cash of ₹−1,012 Cr against reported profit of ₹996 Cr, leaving free cash of ₹−3,963 Cr after ₹2,951 Cr of capital spending. Across the last 3 fiscal years the conversion rate is 110% of profit.

Cash-flow readings here are annual — that is the resolution our series carries, so this section moves once a year.

Why conversion sits at 110%: the cash cycle stretched 37 days between FY21 and FY26 — more of each rupee of profit waits inside the cycle before arriving.

Router verdict: the bigger cash user is investment — capital spending ran 4.3× depreciation over three years, so the next section's job is to check what that build-out is buying.

→ So follow the cash to where it goes. Next: ₹3,747 Cr of building over 3 years.

Where the cash goes Working capital is the cash tied up between paying suppliers and getting paid: debtor days (customers owe), inventory days (stock waits), and the cash conversion cycle (the whole loop, in days of sales).

Paradeep Phosphates Ltd's cash conversion cycle runs 115 days in FY26, up from 78 days in FY21. Capital spending ran ₹3,747 Cr over the last 3 years. At FY26 sales of ₹21,826 Cr each day of that cycle holds about ₹59.8 Cr, so roughly ₹6,877 Cr sits inside the business at any moment.

FY26: debtors at 80 days, inventory at 105 days — roughly 3.5 months of stock waiting to sell; that is where the cash sits while it waits — for a full cycle of 115 days, looser than FY21's 78.

The full loop: cash goes out to suppliers and production on day 0; stock waits 105 days to sell; customers pay about 80 days after that; and suppliers themselves are paid at 70 days — netting out to the 115-day cycle.

In money terms: at FY26 sales of ₹21,826 Cr, each day of the cycle holds about ₹59.8 Cr — so the 115-day loop keeps roughly ₹6,877 Cr sitting inside the business at any moment.

On the investment side: capital spending of ₹3,747 Cr over the last 3 fiscal years against ₹866 Cr of depreciation — the company is building well ahead of wear-and-tear. Capital work-in-progress stands at ₹424 Cr (FY26) — capacity paid for but not yet earning.

The synthesis: the cash is going into capacity, not disappearing into the cycle — the question becomes whether the new capacity earns.

→ Does all this activity actually earn its cost of capital? Next: ROCE is 17%.

Return on capital Return on capital employed (ROCE) is the profit the whole business earns on all the money in it — equity and debt together. It is the single best test of whether growth creates value or just size.

Paradeep Phosphates Ltd earns a ROCE of 17% in FY26. That is up from a trough of 7% in FY24. A return-on-invested-capital spread against the cost of capital is not computable from what is held here. The wiring behind it is 4.6% net margin on 1.22× asset turns.

FY26 ROCE is 17%, recovered from a FY24 trough of 7% — the full ladder below shows the fall and the climb, undoctored.

Why the return is what it is — the wiring (FY26): 4.6% net margin × 1.22× asset turns × 2.64× balance-sheet leverage ≈ 14.8% on equity. Margin does its share; leverage is a meaningful part of the equation.

The quarterly return curves and the return-on-invested-capital overlay, which only the second data source carries, are not drawn on this page: its two data sources disagree by up to 24% on reported income across 14 comparable periods. A figure two sources cannot agree on is not drawn — the gap is a decision, not missing data.

→ Returns like these — is the balance sheet borrowing to make them? Next: debt-to-equity is 1.02.

Debt Debt-to-equity says how much of the business is funded by borrowings; interest cover says how many times operating profit pays the interest bill. Low and high, respectively, is the safe corner.

Paradeep Phosphates Ltd carries ₹6,906 Cr of borrowings against ₹6,783 Cr of equity in FY26, a debt-to-equity of 1.02. Operating profit covers the interest bill 4×. Over 5 years borrowings went from ₹1,251 Cr to ₹6,906 Cr. Capital spending ran ₹3,747 Cr across the last 3 of those years.

FY26: borrowings of ₹6,906 Cr against equity of ₹6,783 Cr — a debt-to-equity of 1.02. Operating profit covers the interest bill 4×. Over 5 years borrowings went from ₹1,251 Cr to ₹6,906 Cr while capital spending ran ₹3,747 Cr in just the last 3 — part of the build-out is riding on borrowed money.

The total-debt and debt-to-equity series, which only the second data source carries, are not drawn on this page: its two data sources disagree by up to 24% on reported income across 14 comparable periods. A figure two sources cannot agree on is not drawn — the gap is a decision, not missing data.

→ Who owns this, and are they adding or leaving? Next: Domestic institutions cut 8.8 points over 8 quarters.

Ownership Who owns the stock, quarter by quarter: promoters (the controlling owners), foreign and domestic institutions, and the public. Steady accumulation by people close to the numbers is a signal; a quiet register is also an answer.

Domestic institutions cut 8.8 points of Paradeep Phosphates Ltd over 8 quarters, the biggest move on the register. That takes domestic institutions to 18.1% of the company. Foreign institutions moved +3.2 points over the same window, to 5.1%. The register is read on the four disclosed classes only; nothing is inferred between filings.

The register over the last two years — Domestic institutions: −8.8 points over 8 quarters to 18.1%; Foreign institutions: +3.2 points over 8 quarters to 5.1%; Promoters: +1.8 points over 8 quarters to 57.9%.

Why the register moved: rotation — foreign institutions +3.2 points against domestic institutions −8.8 points over 8 quarters, with promoters +1.8 points — one class of institutions handing the register to the other, not a verdict change by the people closest to the numbers.

→ One last check: does the safety math agree? Next: the balance-sheet safety line.

Safety line The Z-score estimates how far a company sits from balance-sheet distress — above roughly 3 is safe, below roughly 1.8 is the danger zone. It was built for manufacturers, so it is not applied to banks and lenders.

Paradeep Phosphates Ltd: the Z-score is not available for this stock, so we say so rather than invent one. It is a distance-to-distress estimate from the balance sheet, not a forecast of failure. The debt, cash-flow and return sections above carry the balance-sheet evidence this page does hold, and each of them states its own reporting date.

The safety line in one sentence: the Z-score is not available for this stock, so we say so rather than invent one.

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