NTPC Green Energy Ltd

Price story Before the numbers, the tape. A stock price moves through four repeating seasons: a flat base (stage 1), an advance (2), a top (3), a decline (4). Where the price sits in that cycle frames everything below.

NTPC Green Energy Ltd trades at ₹92.0, in a confirmed uptrend and 11 weeks into that stage. That is −7.4% against its own 200-day average. It sits at 22% of a 52-week range of ₹86 to ₹112. On relative strength it is currently behind the NIFTY 500 on a trailing-13-week view (11 weeks and counting).

Today the stock is in a confirmed uptrend — week 11 of stage 2. At ₹92.0 it trades −7.4% versus its 200-day average and sits at 22% of its 52-week range (₹86–₹112).

Against the market, two honest reads. Cumulative: over the last 1.6 years the stock moved −26% while the NIFTY 500 moved +1% — behind the index over the full window. Recent form: on a trailing-13-week view the stock is currently behind (11 weeks and counting; last ahead the week of 2026-06-05) — the ribbon below is that same metric, week by week.

What would end the trend, mechanically: two Friday closes in a row below the 200-day line. That is the exit rule — no debates.

→ The trend is one thing; the bill is another. Are you paying up for it? Next: the P/E sits at the 13th percentile of its own range.

Valuation P/E is the price of ₹1 of annual profit: how many rupees the market pays for each rupee the company earns in a year.

NTPC Green Energy Ltd trades at 134.0× P/E, near the bottom of its own range — cheaper only 13% of the time. Its long-run median P/E is 157.5×, measured across 1.7 years of weekly readings. This places the multiple against the stock’s own record, and says nothing about what the business is worth.

Today's P/E of 134.0× is near the bottom of its own range — cheaper only 13% of the time, against a long-run median of 157.5× measured over 1.7 years of weekly readings. This is a comparison against the stock's own history — not a claim about what it is worth.

Why the multiple sits where it does: over the past year annual EPS moved +10.7% against a −16.9% price move — earnings outran the price, pushing the multiple DOWN its own range.

Put together: the multiple is low against its own past, so the story rests on the earnings line underneath it, not the multiple.

→ Cheap or dear rides on the earnings. Are they actually growing? Next: the fundamental stage — where the business sits in its arc, and how growth has compounded.

Stage: No read Every business sits somewhere on a fundamental arc, and this page names the spot before anything else. The last twelve quarters of revenue, profit and EPS growth — plus the return the business earns on its capital — are read as curves: Deteriorating (the curves are falling), Turning around (a trough has just formed and the last few quarters lift off it), Improving (the climb off the trough is sustained), Consistent (steadily positive with healthy returns), Topping out (still high but decelerating from the peak). When the curves genuinely disagree the read is Mixed; too little history is No read. CAGR (compound annual growth rate) is the smooth yearly pace that turns the starting value into the latest one — the fairest way to compare growth across different time spans. Read the columns together: if the 1-year number towers over the 10-year, recent growth is running hotter than the long-run trend. A dash means that window is not held, or the base year was a loss (where a growth rate is not meaningful).

NTPC Green Energy Ltd reads as no read on its fundamental arc. Under eight usable quarters on the growth trio — not enough history for an honest trajectory read. The read is built from 7 quarters across 1 curve, on partial evidence.

Why it matters: with too little history, an honest page says so instead of guessing a trajectory.

One or more growth curves carry a base-effect spike — a large year-on-year move off a near-zero or loss-making comparable quarter. Those spikes are capped before the classifier reads the trajectory, and shown pinned on the chart, so a single distorted quarter does not drive the stage call.

Fewer than eight usable quarters on the growth curves — this page will not guess a trajectory from a stub of history.

→ The stage names the trajectory. Next: the revenue line that produces it, quarter by quarter.

4-Factor Sector Score

36.2/100 — rank 17 of 20 in Power - Generation/Distribution · 93% evidence confidence

NTPC Green Energy Ltd scores 36.2 out of 100 against the 20 companies it is compared with in Power - Generation/Distribution, ranking 17. Balanced evidence: keep at normal research priority and require another comparable period before raising conviction.

The four contributions add to the total exactly: 19.1 + 8.5 + 3.5 + 5.1 = 36.2. This is the SAME number shown on the sector comparison — it is computed once, for the whole peer set, and read here.

What would change it: The read weakens if profit growth turns negative or margin improvement reverses while sector-relative strength deteriorates.

Revenue Revenue is the top line: everything the company billed its customers in the period.

NTPC Green Energy Ltd reported ₹1,107 Cr of revenue in the Jun 26 quarter, +62.8% year on year. That is the 7th straight quarter of year-on-year growth. Over 3 years it has compounded at 156.2% a year. The last full year, FY26, came in at ₹2,858 Cr. The last four reported quarters add to ₹3,285 Cr.

NTPC Green Energy Ltd reported ₹1,107 Cr of revenue in the Jun 26 quarter, +62.8% year on year. That is the 7th straight quarter of year-on-year growth. Over 3 years it has compounded at 156.2% a year. The last full year, FY26, came in at ₹2,858 Cr. The last four reported quarters add to ₹3,285 Cr.

FY26 revenue came in at ₹2,858 Cr (+29.3% on the year), capping 3 years at 156.2% compound. The latest quarter (Jun 26) printed ₹1,107 Cr, +62.8% year on year — the 7th consecutive quarter of year-over-year growth.

Pace check: the last four quarters averaged +40.1% growth against the decade's 156.2% — the current year is running slower than its own long-run rate.

→ Revenue grew — did margins hold as it scaled? Next: 89.0% this quarter (+0.0 pp YoY).

Operating margin Operating margin is what is left of every ₹100 of sales after running the business, before interest and tax. It is the cleanest read on pricing power and cost control.

NTPC Green Energy Ltd's operating margin is 89.0% in the Jun 26 quarter, +0.0 percentage points against the same quarter a year ago. Across 4 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged 87.0% to 90.0%. The current quarter sits inside that band.

NTPC Green Energy Ltd's operating margin is 89.0% in the Jun 26 quarter, +0.0 percentage points against the same quarter a year ago. Across 4 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged 87.0% to 90.0%. The current quarter sits inside that band.

The latest quarter's operating margin is 89.0%, +0.0 pp against the same quarter a year ago. Across 4 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged 87.0%–90.0%.

Why the margin moved: operating margin went +0.6 pp year on year while gross margin went +0.0 pp — the gain came mostly below the gross line: operating leverage, with costs spread over a bigger revenue base.

→ Margins held — did that reach the bottom line? Next: profit +38.6% in the latest quarter.

Net profit Net profit is what survives every cost, interest and tax — the number EPS, dividends and book value all grow from.

NTPC Green Energy Ltd earned ₹305 Cr of net profit in the Jun 26 quarter, +38.6% year on year. Full-year FY26 profit was ₹521 Cr. The 3-year compound rate is 45.0%. That is 27.6% of the quarter's revenue. The same quarter a year earlier earned ₹220 Cr.

NTPC Green Energy Ltd earned ₹305 Cr of net profit in the Jun 26 quarter, +38.6% year on year. Full-year FY26 profit was ₹521 Cr. The 3-year compound rate is 45.0%. That is 27.6% of the quarter's revenue. The same quarter a year earlier earned ₹220 Cr.

Jun 26 profit was ₹305 Cr, +38.6% year on year. On the full year, FY26 printed ₹521 Cr (+9.9%), and the 3-year compound rate is 45.0%.

Why profit moved: revenue contributed +62.8% and the margin +0.0 pp — the quarter was revenue-led, with the margin roughly flat.

Pace comparison, last four quarters: profit +20.3% vs revenue +40.1%. Profit is growing slower than sales — costs are eating the growth before it reaches the bottom line.

→ Profit rose — but did the cash follow? Next: 449% of the last 3 years' profit arrived as cash.

Cash flow — the router The P&L says what was earned; the cash-flow statement says what actually arrived. Operating cash flow (CFO) against profit is the cleanest lie detector in the accounts.

Over the last 3 fiscal years 449% of NTPC Green Energy Ltd's reported profit arrived as operating cash — the cash follows the profit. In FY26 that was ₹2,386 Cr of operating cash against ₹521 Cr of profit. After ₹18,698 Cr of capital spending, ₹−16,312 Cr was left as free cash.

FY26: operating cash of ₹2,386 Cr against reported profit of ₹521 Cr, leaving free cash of ₹−16,312 Cr after ₹18,698 Cr of capital spending. Across the last 3 fiscal years the conversion rate is 449% of profit.

Cash-flow readings here are annual — that is the resolution our series carries, so this section moves once a year.

Why conversion sits at 449%: the cash cycle tightened 622 days between FY23 and FY26 — cash that used to wait in the cycle now reaches the bank sooner.

Router verdict: the bigger cash user is investment — capital spending ran 15.7× depreciation over three years, so the next section's job is to check what that build-out is buying.

→ So follow the cash to where it goes. Next: ₹39,391 Cr of building over 3 years.

Where the cash goes Working capital is the cash tied up between paying suppliers and getting paid: debtor days (customers owe), inventory days (stock waits), and the cash conversion cycle (the whole loop, in days of sales).

NTPC Green Energy Ltd's cash conversion cycle runs 78 days in FY26, down from 700 days in FY23. Capital spending ran ₹39,391 Cr over the last 3 years. At FY26 sales of ₹2,858 Cr each day of that cycle holds about ₹7.8 Cr, so roughly ₹611 Cr sits inside the business at any moment.

FY26: debtors at 78 days (an asset-light business — no inventory to speak of) — for a full cycle of 78 days, tighter than FY23's 700.

In money terms: at FY26 sales of ₹2,858 Cr, each day of the cycle holds about ₹7.8 Cr — so the 78-day loop keeps roughly ₹611 Cr sitting inside the business at any moment.

On the investment side: capital spending of ₹39,391 Cr over the last 3 fiscal years against ₹2,503 Cr of depreciation — the company is building well ahead of wear-and-tear. Capital work-in-progress stands at ₹14,193 Cr (FY26) — capacity paid for but not yet earning.

The synthesis: the cash is going into capacity, not disappearing into the cycle — the question becomes whether the new capacity earns.

→ Does all this activity actually earn its cost of capital? Next: ROCE is 4% and the ROIC − WACC spread is −9.7 pp.

Return on capital Return on capital employed (ROCE) is the profit the whole business earns on all the money in it — equity and debt together. It is the single best test of whether growth creates value or just size.

NTPC Green Energy Ltd earns a ROCE of 4% in FY26. Return on invested capital clears the cost of that capital by −9.7 percentage points, so growth here is not yet paying for the capital it uses. The wiring behind it is 18.2% net margin on 0.05× asset turns.

FY26 ROCE is 4%.

🚨 Why the return is what it is — the wiring (FY26): 18.2% net margin × 0.05× asset turns × 3.18× balance-sheet leverage ≈ 2.9% on equity. Margin is doing the heavy lifting; leverage is a meaningful part of the equation.

The capstone test — ROIC − WACC: 2.3% − 12.0% = a −9.7 pp spread. The 12.0% is a standing assumption for the cost of capital in India, not a per-stock estimate — read the sign and the size of the spread, not the decimals. Negative — growth at these returns destroys value until the returns recover.

→ Returns like these — is the balance sheet borrowing to make them? Next: debt-to-equity is 1.67.

Debt Debt-to-equity says how much of the business is funded by borrowings. Low is the safe corner; the trend matters as much as the level.

NTPC Green Energy Ltd carries total debt of ₹31,716 Cr against shareholder equity of ₹19,189 Cr as of Mar 26, a debt-to-equity of 1.65. On the annual view that ratio went from 2.22 in FY24 to 1.65 in FY26. Read the returns elsewhere on this page with that leverage in mind.

Mar 26: total debt of ₹31,716 Cr against shareholder equity of ₹19,189 Cr — a debt-to-equity of 1.65. On the annual view, debt-to-equity went from 2.22 (FY24) to 1.65 (FY26). Read the returns on this page with that leverage in mind.

→ Who owns this, and are they adding or leaving? Next: the register is quiet.

Ownership Who owns the stock, quarter by quarter: promoters (the controlling owners), foreign and domestic institutions, and the public. Steady accumulation by people close to the numbers is a signal; a quiet register is also an answer.

No holder of NTPC Green Energy Ltd moved a full percentage point over the last two years — the register is quiet. Domestic institutions moved −0.1 points over the same window, to 5.2%. The register is read on the four disclosed classes only; nothing is inferred between filings.

The register over the last two years — Foreign institutions: −0.5 points over 6 quarters to 1.7%; Domestic institutions: −0.1 points over 6 quarters to 5.2%; Promoters: +0.0 points over 6 quarters to 89.0%.

→ One last check: does the safety math agree? Next: the balance-sheet safety line.

Safety line The Z-score estimates how far a company sits from balance-sheet distress — above roughly 3 is safe, below roughly 1.8 is the danger zone. It was built for manufacturers, so it is not applied to banks and lenders.

NTPC Green Energy Ltd: the Z-score is not available for this stock, so we say so rather than invent one. It is a distance-to-distress estimate from the balance sheet, not a forecast of failure. The debt, cash-flow and return sections above carry the balance-sheet evidence this page does hold, and each of them states its own reporting date.

The safety line in one sentence: the Z-score is not available for this stock, so we say so rather than invent one.

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