JSW Energy Ltd
JSWENERGYJSW Energy Ltd's earnings have outrun its stock. EPS grew +14.2% in a year against a +2.0% price move.
The sharpest disagreement: the engine is strong, but at the 83rd percentile of its own range you are paying full price for it.
The price is in a confirmed uptrend (11 weeks in) while the P/E sits at the 83rd percentile of its own 10-year range. Underneath, the last four quarters read improving — profit −36.2% year on year, and 309% of the last 3 years' profit arrived as cash. What settles it: whether the earnings grow into the multiple.
Price story Before the numbers, the tape. A stock price moves through four repeating seasons: a flat base (stage 1), an advance (2), a top (3), a decline (4). Where the price sits in that cycle frames everything below.
JSW Energy Ltd trades at ₹541, in a confirmed uptrend and 11 weeks into that stage. That is +2.0% against its own 200-day average. It sits at 65% of a 52-week range of ₹441 to ₹595. On relative strength it is currently behind the NIFTY 500 on a trailing-13-week view (2 weeks and counting).
Today the stock is in a confirmed uptrend — week 11 of stage 2, confirmed. At ₹541 it trades +2.0% versus its 200-day average and sits at 65% of its 52-week range (₹441–₹595).
Against the market, two honest reads. Cumulative: over the last 10.3 years the stock moved +683% while the NIFTY 500 moved +274% — ahead of the index over the full window. Recent form: on a trailing-13-week view the stock is currently behind (2 weeks and counting; last ahead the week of 2026-07-03) — the ribbon below is that same metric, week by week.
What would end the trend, mechanically: two Friday closes in a row below the 200-day line. That is the exit rule — no debates.
→ The trend is one thing; the bill is another. Are you paying up for it? Next: the P/E sits at the 83rd percentile of its own range.
Valuation P/E is the price of ₹1 of annual profit: how many rupees the market pays for each rupee the company earns in a year.
JSW Energy Ltd trades at 50.4× P/E, at the pricey end of its own range (83rd percentile). Its long-run median P/E is 23.8×, measured across 10.4 years of weekly readings. This places the multiple against the stock’s own record, and says nothing about what the business is worth.
Today's P/E of 50.4× is at the pricey end of its own range (83rd percentile), against a long-run median of 23.8× measured over 10.4 years of weekly readings. This is a comparison against the stock's own history — not a claim about what it is worth.
Why the multiple sits where it does: over the past year annual EPS moved +14.2% against a +2.0% price move — earnings outran the price, pushing the multiple DOWN its own range.
The price move, decomposed: over 5y, of the +22.8%/yr price move, ~+19.1%/yr came from earnings growth and ~+3.7 pp from the multiple (expanding); over 10y, of the +21.1%/yr price move, ~+2.4%/yr came from earnings growth and ~+18.7 pp from the multiple (expanding). The split is the honest approximate (price return minus earnings growth); it makes the rally itself visible instead of hiding it behind the percentile.
Put together: the multiple is full against its own past, so the story rests on the earnings line underneath it, not the multiple.
The PEG ratio and its quarterly curve, which only the second data source carries, are not drawn on this page: its two data sources disagree by up to 35% on reported income across 14 comparable periods. A figure two sources cannot agree on is not drawn — the gap is a decision, not missing data.
→ Cheap or dear rides on the earnings. Are they actually growing? Next: the fundamental stage — where the business sits in its arc, and how growth has compounded.
Stage: Mixed Every business sits somewhere on a fundamental arc, and this page names the spot before anything else. The last twelve quarters of revenue, profit and EPS growth — plus the return the business earns on its capital — are read as curves: Deteriorating (the curves are falling), Turning around (a trough has just formed and the last few quarters lift off it), Improving (the climb off the trough is sustained), Consistent (steadily positive with healthy returns), Topping out (still high but decelerating from the peak). When the curves genuinely disagree the read is Mixed; too little history is No read. CAGR (compound annual growth rate) is the smooth yearly pace that turns the starting value into the latest one — the fairest way to compare growth across different time spans. Read the columns together: if the 1-year number towers over the 10-year, recent growth is running hotter than the long-run trend. A dash means that window is not held, or the base year was a loss (where a growth rate is not meaningful).
JSW Energy Ltd reads as mixed on its fundamental arc. Mixed — the growth curves are steadily positive, but ROCE at 8.0% is below the 15% bar this page requires to call it Consistent. The read is built from 8 quarters across 4 curves, on partial evidence.
Why it matters: when the curves disagree, the per-curve reads above matter more than any single verdict.
Return readings here are annual, not quarterly — read as level and direction only; they can confirm the growth curves but never drive the stage on their own.
A partial read: at least one curve is short, or the returns curve is not the computed quarterly series — hold the stage word a little more loosely.
| 1yr | 3yr | 5yr | 10yr | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | +60.9% | +22.3% | +22.3% | +6.8% |
| Profit | +39.3% | +23.1% | +27.4% | +6.6% |
| EPS | +14.2% | +12.3% | +21.4% | +3.7% |
| Share price | +2.0% | +21.1% | +22.8% | +21.1% |
→ The stage names the trajectory. Next: the revenue line that produces it, quarter by quarter.
4-Factor Sector Score
56.6/100 — rank 4 of 20 in Power - Generation/Distribution · 83% evidence confidence
JSW Energy Ltd scores 56.6 out of 100 against the 20 companies it is compared with in Power - Generation/Distribution, ranking 4. Balanced evidence: keep at normal research priority and require another comparable period before raising conviction.
The four contributions add to the total exactly: 21.8 + 11.1 + 7.3 + 16.4 = 56.6. This is the SAME number shown on the sector comparison — it is computed once, for the whole peer set, and read here.
What would change it: The read weakens if profit growth turns negative or margin improvement reverses while sector-relative strength deteriorates.
Revenue Revenue is the top line: everything the company billed its customers in the period.
JSW Energy Ltd reported ₹5,207 Cr of revenue in the Jun 26 quarter, +1.2% year on year. That is the 6th straight quarter of year-on-year growth. Over 10 years it has compounded at 6.8% a year. The last full year, FY26, came in at ₹18,901 Cr. The last four reported quarters add to ₹18,965 Cr.
JSW Energy Ltd reported ₹5,207 Cr of revenue in the Jun 26 quarter, +1.2% year on year. That is the 6th straight quarter of year-on-year growth. Over 10 years it has compounded at 6.8% a year. The last full year, FY26, came in at ₹18,901 Cr. The last four reported quarters add to ₹18,965 Cr.
FY26 revenue came in at ₹18,901 Cr (+60.9% on the year), capping 10 years at 6.8% compound. The latest quarter (Jun 26) printed ₹5,207 Cr, +1.2% year on year — the 6th consecutive quarter of year-over-year growth.
Pace check: the last four quarters averaged +42.4% growth against the decade's 6.8% — the current year is running faster than its own long-run rate.
Acceleration check: trailing-twelve-month revenue grew +35.4% over the last 4 quarters against +28.8%/yr over the last 8 — accelerating; TTM profit +7.7% vs +11.8%/yr — rolling over.
→ Revenue grew — did margins hold as it scaled? Next: 55.0% this quarter (+1.0 pp YoY).
Operating margin Operating margin is what is left of every ₹100 of sales after running the business, before interest and tax. It is the cleanest read on pricing power and cost control.
JSW Energy Ltd's operating margin is 55.0% in the Jun 26 quarter, +1.0 percentage points against the same quarter a year ago. That is the widest this company has ever printed on a full-year basis. Across 13 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged 31.0% to 53.0%. The current quarter is running above every full year in that window.
JSW Energy Ltd's operating margin is 55.0% in the Jun 26 quarter, +1.0 percentage points against the same quarter a year ago. That is the widest this company has ever printed on a full-year basis. Across 13 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged 31.0% to 53.0%. The current quarter is running above every full year in that window.
The latest quarter's operating margin is 55.0%, +1.0 pp against the same quarter a year ago. Across 13 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged 31.0%–53.0%, and FY26's 53.0% is the top of that band — a record year.
Why the margin moved: operating margin went +1.0 pp year on year while gross margin went +2.0 pp — the gain came mostly from the gross line: input costs and pricing.
Worth repeating from the valuation section: cheap against its own history on record margins is not the same thing as cheap — a record margin flatters every ratio built on top of it.
→ Margins held — did that reach the bottom line? Next: profit −36.2% in the latest quarter.
Net profit Net profit is what survives every cost, interest and tax — the number EPS, dividends and book value all grow from.
JSW Energy Ltd earned ₹533 Cr of net profit in the Jun 26 quarter, −36.2% year on year. Full-year FY26 profit was ₹2,762 Cr. The 10-year compound rate is 6.6%. That is 10.2% of the quarter's revenue. The same quarter a year earlier earned ₹836 Cr.
JSW Energy Ltd earned ₹533 Cr of net profit in the Jun 26 quarter, −36.2% year on year. Full-year FY26 profit was ₹2,762 Cr. The 10-year compound rate is 6.6%. That is 10.2% of the quarter's revenue. The same quarter a year earlier earned ₹836 Cr.
Jun 26 profit was ₹533 Cr, −36.2% year on year. On the full year, FY26 printed ₹2,762 Cr (+39.3%), and the 10-year compound rate is 6.6%.
🚨 Why profit moved: revenue contributed +1.2% and the margin +1.0 pp — the quarter was revenue-led, with the margin roughly flat.
Pace comparison, last four quarters: profit +58.3% vs revenue +42.4%. Profit is growing faster than sales — fixed costs are being spread over a bigger base, and each extra rupee of revenue drops more to the bottom line.
→ Profit rose — but did the cash follow? Next: 309% of the last 3 years' profit arrived as cash.
Cash flow — the router The P&L says what was earned; the cash-flow statement says what actually arrived. Operating cash flow (CFO) against profit is the cleanest lie detector in the accounts.
Over the last 3 fiscal years 309% of JSW Energy Ltd's reported profit arrived as operating cash — the cash follows the profit. In FY26 that was ₹9,898 Cr of operating cash against ₹2,762 Cr of profit. After ₹30,737 Cr of capital spending, ₹−20,839 Cr was left as free cash.
FY26: operating cash of ₹9,898 Cr against reported profit of ₹2,762 Cr, leaving free cash of ₹−20,839 Cr after ₹30,737 Cr of capital spending. Across the last 3 fiscal years the conversion rate is 309% of profit.
Cash-flow readings here are annual — that is the resolution our series carries, so this section moves once a year.
Why conversion sits at 309%: the cash cycle tightened 20 days between FY21 and FY26 — cash that used to wait in the cycle now reaches the bank sooner.
Router verdict: the bigger cash user is investment — capital spending ran 10.6× depreciation over three years, so the next section's job is to check what that build-out is buying.
→ So follow the cash to where it goes. Next: ₹68,653 Cr of building over 3 years.
Where the cash goes Working capital is the cash tied up between paying suppliers and getting paid: debtor days (customers owe), inventory days (stock waits), and the cash conversion cycle (the whole loop, in days of sales).
JSW Energy Ltd's cash conversion cycle runs 31 days in FY26, down from 51 days in FY21. Capital spending ran ₹68,653 Cr over the last 3 years. At FY26 sales of ₹18,901 Cr each day of that cycle holds about ₹51.8 Cr, so roughly ₹1,605 Cr sits inside the business at any moment.
FY26: debtors at 31 days (an asset-light business — no inventory to speak of) — for a full cycle of 31 days, tighter than FY21's 51.
In money terms: at FY26 sales of ₹18,901 Cr, each day of the cycle holds about ₹51.8 Cr — so the 31-day loop keeps roughly ₹1,605 Cr sitting inside the business at any moment.
On the investment side: capital spending of ₹68,653 Cr over the last 3 fiscal years against ₹6,473 Cr of depreciation — the company is building well ahead of wear-and-tear. Capital work-in-progress stands at ₹17,465 Cr (FY26) — capacity paid for but not yet earning.
The synthesis: the cash is going into capacity, not disappearing into the cycle — the question becomes whether the new capacity earns.
→ Does all this activity actually earn its cost of capital? Next: ROCE is 8%.
Return on capital Return on capital employed (ROCE) is the profit the whole business earns on all the money in it — equity and debt together. It is the single best test of whether growth creates value or just size.
JSW Energy Ltd earns a ROCE of 8% in FY26. That is up from a trough of 6% in FY25. A return-on-invested-capital spread against the cost of capital is not computable from what is held here. The wiring behind it is 14.6% net margin on 0.15× asset turns.
FY26 ROCE is 8%, recovered from a FY25 trough of 6% — the full ladder below shows the fall and the climb, undoctored.
Why the return is what it is — the wiring (FY26): 14.6% net margin × 0.15× asset turns × 4.03× balance-sheet leverage ≈ 8.8% on equity. Margin does its share; leverage is a meaningful part of the equation.
The quarterly return curves and the return-on-invested-capital overlay, which only the second data source carries, are not drawn on this page: its two data sources disagree by up to 35% on reported income across 14 comparable periods. A figure two sources cannot agree on is not drawn — the gap is a decision, not missing data.
→ Returns like these — is the balance sheet borrowing to make them? Next: debt-to-equity is 2.50.
Debt Debt-to-equity says how much of the business is funded by borrowings; interest cover says how many times operating profit pays the interest bill. Low and high, respectively, is the safe corner.
JSW Energy Ltd carries ₹76,946 Cr of borrowings against ₹30,751 Cr of equity in FY26, a debt-to-equity of 2.50. Operating profit covers the interest bill 2×. Over 5 years borrowings went from ₹8,371 Cr to ₹76,946 Cr. Capital spending ran ₹68,653 Cr across the last 3 of those years.
FY26: borrowings of ₹76,946 Cr against equity of ₹30,751 Cr — a debt-to-equity of 2.50. Operating profit covers the interest bill 2×. Over 5 years borrowings went from ₹8,371 Cr to ₹76,946 Cr while capital spending ran ₹68,653 Cr in just the last 3 — part of the build-out is riding on borrowed money.
The total-debt and debt-to-equity series, which only the second data source carries, are not drawn on this page: its two data sources disagree by up to 35% on reported income across 14 comparable periods. A figure two sources cannot agree on is not drawn — the gap is a decision, not missing data.
→ Who owns this, and are they adding or leaving? Next: Domestic institutions added 6.4 points over 8 quarters.
Ownership Who owns the stock, quarter by quarter: promoters (the controlling owners), foreign and domestic institutions, and the public. Steady accumulation by people close to the numbers is a signal; a quiet register is also an answer.
Domestic institutions added 6.4 points of JSW Energy Ltd over 8 quarters, the biggest move on the register. That takes domestic institutions to 16.2% of the company. Foreign institutions moved −3.5 points over the same window, to 11.4%. The register is read on the four disclosed classes only; nothing is inferred between filings.
The register over the last two years — Domestic institutions: +6.4 points over 8 quarters to 16.2%; Foreign institutions: −3.5 points over 8 quarters to 11.4%; Promoters: −2.8 points over 8 quarters to 66.5%.
Why the register moved: rotation — foreign institutions −3.5 points against domestic institutions +6.4 points over 8 quarters, with promoters −2.8 points — one class of institutions handing the register to the other, not a verdict change by the people closest to the numbers.
→ One last check: does the safety math agree? Next: the balance-sheet safety line.
Safety line The Z-score estimates how far a company sits from balance-sheet distress — above roughly 3 is safe, below roughly 1.8 is the danger zone. It was built for manufacturers, so it is not applied to banks and lenders.
JSW Energy Ltd: the Z-score is not available for this stock, so we say so rather than invent one. It is a distance-to-distress estimate from the balance sheet, not a forecast of failure. The debt, cash-flow and return sections above carry the balance-sheet evidence this page does hold, and each of them states its own reporting date.
The safety line in one sentence: the Z-score is not available for this stock, so we say so rather than invent one.
| Company | P/E | Mkt cap | Revenue | EPS | ROCE | Stage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JSW Energy Ltd this page | 50.4× | ₹1L Cr | Mixed | |||
| Adani Power Ltd | 28.9× | ₹4.1L Cr | Improving | |||
| NTPC Ltd | 12.1× | ₹3.4L Cr | Mixed | |||
| Adani Green Energy Ltd | 119.0× | ₹2.3L Cr | Mixed | |||
| Tata Power Company Ltd | 31.1× | ₹1.2L Cr | Mixed | |||
| NTPC Green Energy Ltd | 134.0× | ₹81,162 Cr | No read | |||
| NHPC Ltd | 21.2× | ₹79,748 Cr | Turning around | |||
| Torrent Power Ltd | 31.6× | ₹72,265 Cr | Mixed | |||
| NLC India Ltd | 11.5× | ₹40,601 Cr | Improving | |||
| SJVN Ltd | 41.4× | ₹26,558 Cr | Improving | |||
| CESC Ltd | 14.0× | ₹21,631 Cr | Mixed | |||
| Jaiprakash Power Ventures Ltd | 13.9× | ₹11,617 Cr | Turning around | |||
| Reliance Power Ltd | — | ₹9,951 Cr | No read | |||
| KPI Green Energy Ltd | 16.2× | ₹7,713 Cr | Mixed | |||
| RattanIndia Power Ltd | 41.6× | ₹4,634 Cr | No read | |||
| Gujarat Industries Power Co Ltd | 6.1× | ₹2,440 Cr | No read | |||
| BF Utilities Ltd | 14.3× | ₹2,186 Cr | Consistent | |||
| Orient Green Power Company Ltd | 22.0× | ₹1,177 Cr | Mixed | |||
| Mac Charles (India) Ltd | — | ₹938 Cr | No read | |||
| India Power Corporation Ltd | 54.5× | ₹698 Cr | Mixed |
Frequently asked questions
What is JSW Energy Ltd's share price today?
JSW Energy Ltd trades at ₹541, +2.0% over the past year. The company is valued at ₹1,01,144 Cr. The stock sits at 65% of its 52-week range of ₹441–₹595, +2.0% versus its 200-day average. On the tape, the price is in a confirmed uptrend, 11 weeks in. — as of 24 July 2026.
What were JSW Energy Ltd's latest quarterly results?
JSW Energy Ltd reported revenue of ₹5,207 Cr and net profit of ₹533 Cr for the Jun 26 quarter. Revenue rose 1.2% and profit fell 36.2% year on year. Earnings per share were ₹2.57. The operating margin was 55.0%, 1.0 pp higher than a year earlier. — as of 24 July 2026.
What is JSW Energy Ltd's revenue?
JSW Energy Ltd reported revenue of ₹5,207 Cr in the Jun 26 quarter, +1.2% year on year. For the full FY26 fiscal year, revenue was ₹18,901 Cr (+60.9%). Over the last 10 years revenue compounded at 6.8% a year. — as of 24 July 2026.
What is JSW Energy Ltd's profit?
JSW Energy Ltd earned ₹533 Cr of net profit in the Jun 26 quarter, −36.2% year on year. Full-year FY26 profit was ₹2,762 Cr. The operating margin ran 55.0% in the latest quarter. — as of 24 July 2026.
What is JSW Energy Ltd's market cap?
JSW Energy Ltd's market capitalisation is ₹1,01,144 Cr at a share price of ₹541. Market cap is the share price multiplied by shares outstanding, so it is restated whenever the price moves. — as of 24 July 2026.
What is JSW Energy Ltd's P/E ratio?
JSW Energy Ltd trades at a P/E of 50.4×, at the 83rd percentile of its own 10-year range, against a long-run median of 23.8×. This is a comparison with the stock's own history, not a value call — as of 24 July 2026.
Does JSW Energy Ltd pay a dividend?
Yes — JSW Energy Ltd's dividend payout was 16% of profit in FY26, and it recorded a payout in 12 of its last 13 reported fiscal years. This page holds the payout ratio, not a per-share amount. — as of 24 July 2026.
Is JSW Energy Ltd overvalued?
On its own history, JSW Energy Ltd looks expensive against its own history: its P/E of 50.4× sits at the 83rd percentile of its 10-year range (long-run median 23.8×). That is a percentile read against the stock's own past, not a price opinion or a direction call. One caveat: margins are the best this company has ever printed — cheap on record margins is not the same thing as cheap. — as of 24 July 2026.
Is JSW Energy Ltd growing?
Yes — JSW Energy Ltd is growing: latest-quarter revenue +1.2% year on year, profit −36.2%, and the margin +1.0 pp at 55.0%. The 10-year compound rates are 6.8% (revenue) and 6.6% (profit). The earnings engine currently reads: improving — as of 24 July 2026.
How is JSW Energy Ltd performing?
JSW Energy Ltd is in a confirmed uptrend, 11 weeks in. Its latest quarter's revenue rose 1.2% and profit fell 36.2% year on year. Against the NIFTY 500 it has been behind on a trailing-13-week view for 2 weeks. This describes what the data did, not a rating. — as of 24 July 2026.
What stage is JSW Energy Ltd in?
Mixed — the growth curves are steadily positive, but ROCE at 8.0% is below the 15% bar this page requires to call it Consistent. The read comes from the last 12 quarters of growth (revenue growth +35.4% latest, profit growth +7.7% latest, eps growth −10.5% latest) plus the ROCE curve, classified by deterministic rules — a trajectory read, not a buy or sell call — as of 24 July 2026.
Is JSW Energy Ltd in an uptrend?
Yes — the price is in a confirmed uptrend (week 11 of stage 2), trading +2.0% versus its 200-day average and at 65% of its 52-week range. Price stages cycle base → advance → top → decline, and the stage names where this stock sits in that cycle — as of 24 July 2026.
Is JSW Energy Ltd beating the market?
Not lately — on a trailing-13-week view JSW Energy Ltd is currently behind the NIFTY 500 (2 weeks and counting; last ahead the week of 2026-07-03), the same metric the week-by-week ribbon on this page draws. Separately, on the cumulative view: over the last 10.3 years the stock moved +683% against the NIFTY 500's +274% — ahead of the index over the full window. — as of 24 July 2026.
Will JSW Energy Ltd's share price go up?
This page publishes no price forecast for JSW Energy Ltd. What it measures instead: the share price is ₹541, the price is in a confirmed uptrend 11 weeks in. Its P/E of 50.4× sits at the 83rd percentile of its own 10-year range. — as of 24 July 2026.
Who owns JSW Energy Ltd?
Promoters hold 66.5% of JSW Energy Ltd, foreign institutions 11.4%, domestic institutions 16.2% and the public 5.8% (latest quarter). The biggest move on the register over the last two years: Domestic institutions added 6.4 points over 8 quarters. — as of 24 July 2026.
Does JSW Energy Ltd have too much debt?
It carries real leverage — JSW Energy Ltd's debt-to-equity is 2.50, and operating profit covers the interest bill 2×. FY26 borrowings were ₹76,946 Cr against equity of ₹30,751 Cr. Read the returns on this page with that leverage in mind — as of 24 July 2026.
What is JSW Energy Ltd's capex?
JSW Energy Ltd spent ₹68,653 Cr on capital expenditure over the last 3 fiscal years, a figure derived from the change in fixed assets plus depreciation. In FY26 alone that was ₹30,737 Cr, with ₹17,465 Cr in capital work-in-progress — capacity paid for but not yet earning. — as of 24 July 2026.
What is JSW Energy Ltd's cash flow?
JSW Energy Ltd generated ₹9,898 Cr of operating cash flow in FY26 and ₹−20,839 Cr of free cash flow after ₹30,737 Cr of capital spending. Reported profit that year was ₹2,762 Cr, so operating cash ran ahead of profit. Cash-flow resolution for India is annual. — as of 24 July 2026.
Is JSW Energy Ltd's profit real cash?
Yes — over the last 3 fiscal years, 309% of JSW Energy Ltd's reported profit arrived as operating cash. In FY26, operating cash was ₹9,898 Cr against reported profit of ₹2,762 Cr. The cash then goes mostly into building capacity. Cash-flow resolution is annual — as of 24 July 2026.
Where is JSW Energy Ltd in its business cycle?
JSW Energy Ltd's FY26 operating margin was 53.0%, against a 13-year band of 31.0%–53.0%: the top of the band — a record year. Record profitability is late-cycle territory: every ratio flatters at the top, and the story leans on margins holding. The latest quarter ran 55.0%. Profitability versus a company's own long band is the cleanest cycle clock this page holds — as of 24 July 2026.
What could break the JSW Energy Ltd story?
The sharpest disagreement: the engine is strong, but at the 83rd percentile of its own range you are paying full price for it. Mechanically, two Friday closes in a row below the 200-day average would end the price trend — that is the exit rule this page tracks — as of 24 July 2026.
Is JSW Energy Ltd a stock worth studying right now?
This is not investment advice. The machine read: JSW Energy Ltd's earnings have outrun its stock. EPS grew +14.2% in a year against a +2.0% price move. The sharpest open question: whether the earnings grow into the multiple. Every number on this page is drawn deterministically from the raw series, with no forecasts and no price opinions — as of 24 July 2026.