Muthoot Microfin Ltd

Price story Before the numbers, the tape. A stock price moves through four repeating seasons: a flat base (stage 1), an advance (2), a top (3), a decline (4). Where the price sits in that cycle frames everything below.

Muthoot Microfin Ltd trades at ₹240, in a confirmed uptrend and 10 weeks into that stage. That is +30.7% against its own 200-day average. It sits at 100% of a 52-week range of ₹146 to ₹240. On relative strength it has been ahead of the NIFTY 500 on a trailing-13-week view for 15 straight weeks.

Today the stock is in a confirmed uptrend — week 10 of stage 2, confirmed. At ₹240 it trades +30.7% versus its 200-day average and sits at 100% of its 52-week range (₹146–₹240).

Against the market, two honest reads. Cumulative: over the last 2.6 years the stock moved −4% while the NIFTY 500 moved +20% — behind the index over the full window. Recent form: on a trailing-13-week view the stock has been ahead for 15 straight weeks — the ribbon below is that same metric, week by week.

What would end the trend, mechanically: two Friday closes in a row below the 200-day line. That is the exit rule — no debates.

→ The trend is one thing; the bill is another. Are you paying up for it? Next: the P/BV sits at the 100th percentile of its own range.

Valuation For a bank we price the book, not the earnings: P/BV is what the market pays for each ₹1 of the bank's net worth. A bank below 1× book is priced below the value of what it owns, net of what it owes.

Muthoot Microfin Ltd trades at 1.5× P/BV, about the priciest it has ever traded. Its long-run median P/BV is 1.1×, measured across 2.2 years of weekly readings. This places the multiple against the stock’s own record, and says nothing about what the business is worth.

Today's P/BV of 1.5× is about the priciest it has ever traded, against a long-run median of 1.1× measured over 2.2 years of weekly readings. This is a comparison against the stock's own history — not a claim about what it is worth.

The honest context for that discount: a bank earning about 6% on its equity is worth less per rupee of book, and the market has priced that in rather than overlooked it. The discount closes only if the returns themselves improve.

Put together: the multiple is full against its own past, so the story rests on the book-value line underneath it, not the multiple.

→ Cheap or dear rides on the earnings. Are they actually growing? Next: the fundamental stage — where the business sits in its arc, and how growth has compounded.

Stage: Turning around Every business sits somewhere on a fundamental arc, and this page names the spot before anything else. The last twelve quarters of revenue, profit and EPS growth — plus the return the business earns on its capital — are read as curves: Deteriorating (the curves are falling), Turning around (a trough has just formed and the last few quarters lift off it), Improving (the climb off the trough is sustained), Consistent (steadily positive with healthy returns), Topping out (still high but decelerating from the peak). When the curves genuinely disagree the read is Mixed; too little history is No read. CAGR (compound annual growth rate) is the smooth yearly pace that turns the starting value into the latest one — the fairest way to compare growth across different time spans. Read the columns together: if the 1-year number towers over the 10-year, recent growth is running hotter than the long-run trend. A dash means that window is not held, or the base year was a loss (where a growth rate is not meaningful).

Muthoot Microfin Ltd reads as turning around on its fundamental arc. Turning around — profit growth swung from −96.8% at the trough to +1450.0%, a 3-quarter improving streak (single-quarter readings), ROE lifting at 6.0%. The read is built from 12 quarters across 3 curves, on partial evidence.

Why it matters: growth inflections are where re-ratings start — the curves say a turn is forming, so the question becomes whether the next quarters confirm it.

One or more growth curves carry a base-effect spike — a large year-on-year move off a near-zero or loss-making comparable quarter. Those spikes are capped before the classifier reads the trajectory, and shown pinned on the chart, so a single distorted quarter does not drive the stage call.

A partial read: at least one curve is short, or the returns curve is not the computed quarterly series — hold the stage word a little more loosely.

→ The stage names the trajectory. Next: the revenue line that produces it, quarter by quarter.

4-Factor Sector Score

50.6/100 — rank 4 of 7 in Finance & Investments - Microfinance · 86% evidence confidence

Muthoot Microfin Ltd scores 50.6 out of 100 against the 7 companies it is compared with in Finance & Investments - Microfinance, ranking 4. Balanced evidence: keep at normal research priority and require another comparable period before raising conviction.

The four contributions add to the total exactly: 20.1 + 10.8 + 5.9 + 13.8 = 50.6. This is the SAME number shown on the sector comparison — it is computed once, for the whole peer set, and read here.

What would change it: The read weakens if ROA rolls over or gross NPA rises while sector-relative strength deteriorates.

Revenue For a bank, revenue is everything the franchise earns — interest on the loan book plus fee and other income.

Muthoot Microfin Ltd reported ₹632 Cr of income in the Mar 26 quarter, +13.9% year on year. Over 7 years it has compounded at 17.9% a year. The last full year, FY26, came in at ₹2,375 Cr. The last four reported quarters add to ₹2,370 Cr.

Muthoot Microfin Ltd reported ₹632 Cr of income in the Mar 26 quarter, +13.9% year on year. Over 7 years it has compounded at 17.9% a year. The last full year, FY26, came in at ₹2,375 Cr. The last four reported quarters add to ₹2,370 Cr.

FY26 revenue came in at ₹2,375 Cr (−7.3% on the year), capping 7 years at 17.9% compound. The latest quarter (Mar 26) printed ₹632 Cr, +13.9% year on year.

Pace check: the last four quarters averaged −6.6% growth against the decade's 17.9% — the current year is running slower than its own long-run rate.

Acceleration check: trailing-twelve-month revenue grew −7.5% over the last 4 quarters against +2.3%/yr over the last 8 — rolling over.

→ Revenue grew — did the net margin hold as it scaled? Next: 11.2% this quarter (+83.5 pp YoY).

Net margin Net margin — what the bank keeps of every ₹100 of revenue after every cost, provision and tax. It is the cleanest single margin we can read for a lender.

Muthoot Microfin Ltd's net margin is 11.2% in the Mar 26 quarter, +83.5 percentage points against the same quarter a year ago. Across 8 fiscal years the net margin has ranged −8.7% to 26.9%. The current quarter sits inside that band.

Muthoot Microfin Ltd's net margin is 11.2% in the Mar 26 quarter, +83.5 percentage points against the same quarter a year ago. Across 8 fiscal years the net margin has ranged −8.7% to 26.9%. The current quarter sits inside that band.

The latest quarter's net margin is 11.2%, +83.5 pp against the same quarter a year ago. Across 8 fiscal years the net margin has ranged −8.7%–26.9%.

Why: the numbers show the net margin move clearly, but the cost lines behind it sit below what we hold — so we state the move without inventing its driver.

→ The net margin held — did that reach the bottom line? Next: profit null in the latest quarter.

Net profit Net profit is what survives every cost, interest and tax — the number EPS, dividends and book value all grow from.

Muthoot Microfin Ltd earned ₹71.0 Cr of net profit in the Mar 26 quarter. Full-year FY26 profit was ₹170 Cr. The 7-year compound rate is −2.4%. That is 11.2% of the quarter's revenue. The same quarter a year earlier lost ₹401 Cr. 1 of the last 12 reported quarters were loss-making.

Muthoot Microfin Ltd earned ₹71.0 Cr of net profit in the Mar 26 quarter. Full-year FY26 profit was ₹170 Cr. The 7-year compound rate is −2.4%. That is 11.2% of the quarter's revenue. The same quarter a year earlier lost ₹401 Cr. 1 of the last 12 reported quarters were loss-making.

Mar 26 profit was ₹71.0 Cr, null year on year. On the full year, FY26 printed ₹170 Cr (null), and the 7-year compound rate is −2.4%.

Pace comparison, last four quarters: profit +435.1% vs revenue −6.6%. Profit is growing faster than sales — fixed costs are being spread over a bigger base, and each extra rupee of revenue drops more to the bottom line.

→ Profit is up — how clean is the loan book behind it? Next: gross NPA is 3.89%, 3 quarters better in a row.

Asset quality — the ladder Gross NPA is the slice of the loan book where repayments have stopped. Net NPA is what remains after the money already set aside against those loans. Falling is healing; rising is damage arriving.

Muthoot Microfin Ltd's gross NPA is 3.89% of the loan book in Mar 26, down from 4.84% a year ago. Net of provisions already set aside, 1.14% remains. That is the 3rd straight quarter of improvement. Across the 7 quarters held here the book has ranged 2.75% to 4.85%.

Mar 26: gross NPA at 3.89% and net NPA at 1.14%, against 4.84% / 1.34% a year ago. Over the 7 quarters we hold, the book's worst reading was 4.85% and its best is 2.75%. The ladder has now improved for 3 consecutive quarters.

The synthesis: profit growth at a bank is only as good as the book behind it, and this book is healing on a multi-quarter streak. A note on depth: quarterly provisioning detail is not in our numbers yet, so this ladder reads levels and trend, not the cost of the cleanup.

Why the ladder moved: recoveries, write-offs and slippages each play a part, and that split sits below what we hold — the numbers show the healing; the driver mix does not travel with them.

→ Behind a cleaner book — is the book itself still growing? Next: revenue grew −7.3% in FY26.

The loan book We read the loan book through revenue — when the book grows, revenue grows with it. It is a rough proxy, and we say so: rate moves and fee swings can shift it a few points in any one year.

Muthoot Microfin Ltd's revenue grew −7.3% in FY26 to ₹2,375 Cr, so the book is flat. The latest quarter ran +13.9% year on year. The net margin on that income is 11.2%, +83.5 percentage points against a year ago. Interest income is a proxy for the book; rate moves can shift it a few points in any one year.

FY26 revenue was ₹2,375 Cr, −7.3% on the year, and the latest quarter ran +13.9% year on year. The net margin on that revenue is 11.2% this quarter (+83.5 pp YoY) — growth with a widening margin on it.

The synthesis: a lender compounds when the book grows while the margin holds and the loan book stays clean — gross NPA is the loan-quality read we carry here.

→ Does all of this actually earn its keep on equity? Next: ROE is 6%.

Returns on equity and assets Two numbers rate a bank: ROE — what it earns on shareholder money — and ROA — what it earns on everything it deploys. ROE above ~13–15% earns its keep; below that, growth builds book slowly.

Muthoot Microfin Ltd earns a return on equity of 6% in FY26. Its trough over the ladder below was −8% in FY25. On the asset side every ₹100 of the balance sheet earned about ₹1.45, which is the return before leverage is applied.

FY26 ROE came in at 6%, recovered from a FY25 trough of −8%. On assets, the latest reading is about 1.45% — every ₹100 the bank deploys earns roughly ₹1.45 a year. That return is below the bar a bank must clear to compound book value quickly — which is also the honest reason the stock trades where it does.

Why ROE moved: profit compounded −2.4% a year over 7 years while the equity base grew more slowly — earnings recovering faster than book value builds is what lifts ROE off a trough.

→ Who owns this bank, and are they adding or leaving? Next: Foreign institutions cut 3.4 points over 8 quarters.

Debt

For a bank, borrowings are raw material, not a warning sign — solvency is read through the returns and the loan book. A manufacturer’s debt is a claim against its profits, so the debt-to-equity lens that works everywhere else misleads on a lender and is not applied here.

A manufacturer’s debt is a claim against its profits; a bank’s borrowings are its inventory — money taken in to be lent out. The debt lens that works everywhere else misleads here, so this page does not apply it. The solvency questions for a bank — is the loan book sound, is the equity earning — are read through the loan-book and returns sections above.

→ Who owns this, and are they adding or leaving? Next: Foreign institutions cut 3.4 points over 8 quarters.

Ownership Who owns the stock, quarter by quarter: promoters (the controlling owners), foreign and domestic institutions, and the public. Steady accumulation by people close to the numbers is a signal; a quiet register is also an answer.

Foreign institutions cut 3.4 points of Muthoot Microfin Ltd over 8 quarters, the biggest move on the register. That takes foreign institutions to 23.1% of the company. Domestic institutions moved +1.1 points over the same window, to 3.4%. The register is read on the four disclosed classes only; nothing is inferred between filings.

The register over the last two years — Foreign institutions: −3.4 points over 8 quarters to 23.1%; Domestic institutions: +1.1 points over 8 quarters to 3.4%; Promoters: +0.0 points over 8 quarters to 55.5%.

🚨 Why the register moved: foreign institutions drove it (−3.4 points), absorbed on the other side by domestic institutions (+1.1 points) — distribution into the market’s bid.

→ One last check: does the safety math agree? Next: the balance-sheet safety line.

Safety line The Z-score estimates how far a company sits from balance-sheet distress — above roughly 3 is safe, below roughly 1.8 is the danger zone. It was built for manufacturers, so it is not applied to banks and lenders.

Muthoot Microfin Ltd: the Z-score is omitted — it was built for manufacturers, not banks, and applying it here would be theatre. The Z-score was built for manufacturers and is not applied to banks and lenders, so solvency here is read from the capital and asset-quality lines instead.

The safety line in one sentence: the Z-score is omitted — it was built for manufacturers, not banks, and applying it here would be theatre.

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