Jefferson Capital, Inc.

Price story Before the numbers, the tape. A stock price moves through four repeating seasons: a flat base (stage 1), an advance (2), a top (3), a decline (4). Where the price sits in that cycle frames everything below.

Jefferson Capital, Inc. trades at $20.5, between stages. That is +2.8% against its own 200-day average. It sits at 61% of a 52-week range of $16 to $23. On relative strength it is currently behind the S&P 500 on a trailing-13-week view (21 weeks and counting).

Today the stock is between stages. At $20.5 it trades +2.8% versus its 200-day average and sits at 61% of its 52-week range ($16–$23).

Against the market, two honest reads. Cumulative: over the last 1.0 years the stock moved +22% while the S&P 500 moved +19% — ahead of the index over the full window. Recent form: on a trailing-13-week view the stock is currently behind (21 weeks and counting; last ahead the week of 2026-03-06) — the ribbon below is that same metric, week by week.

What would end the trend, mechanically: two Friday closes in a row below the 200-day line. That is the exit rule — no debates.

→ The trend is one thing; the bill is another. Are you paying up for it? Next: the P/BV sits at the 63rd percentile of its own range.

Valuation For a bank we price the book, not the earnings: P/BV is what the market pays for each $1 of the bank's net worth. A bank below 1× book is priced below the value of what it owns, net of what it owes.

Jefferson Capital, Inc. trades at 2.6× P/BV, mid-range by its own standards (63rd percentile). Its long-run median P/BV is 2.5×, measured across 1.0 years of weekly readings. This places the multiple against the stock’s own record, and says nothing about what the business is worth.

Today's P/BV of 2.6× is mid-range by its own standards (63rd percentile), against a long-run median of 2.5× measured over 1.0 years of weekly readings. This is a comparison against the stock's own history — not a claim about what it is worth.

🚨 Why the multiple sits where it does: over the past year book value grew while the price moved +20.9% — price and book moved together, holding the multiple in its range.

Put together: the multiple is unremarkable against its own past, so the story rests on the book-value line underneath it, not the multiple.

→ Cheap or dear rides on the earnings. Are they actually growing? Next: the fundamental stage — where the business sits in its arc, and how growth has compounded.

Stage: Mixed Every business sits somewhere on a fundamental arc, and this page names the spot before anything else. The last twelve quarters of revenue, profit and EPS growth — plus the return the business earns on its capital — are read as curves: Deteriorating (the curves are falling), Turning around (a trough has just formed and the last few quarters lift off it), Improving (the climb off the trough is sustained), Consistent (steadily positive with healthy returns), Topping out (still high but decelerating from the peak). When the curves genuinely disagree the read is Mixed; too little history is No read. CAGR (compound annual growth rate) is the smooth yearly pace that turns the starting value into the latest one — the fairest way to compare growth across different time spans. Read the columns together: if the 1-year number towers over the 10-year, recent growth is running hotter than the long-run trend. A dash means that window is not held, or the base year was a loss (where a growth rate is not meaningful).

Jefferson Capital, Inc. reads as mixed on its fundamental arc. Mixed — no clean majority across the growth curves, ROE slipping at 38.6% — the per-curve reads carry the story. The read is built from 9 quarters across 3 curves, on partial evidence.

Why it matters: when the curves disagree, the per-curve reads above matter more than any single verdict.

One or more growth curves carry a base-effect spike — a large year-on-year move off a near-zero or loss-making comparable quarter. Those spikes are capped before the classifier reads the trajectory, and shown pinned on the chart, so a single distorted quarter does not drive the stage call.

A partial read: at least one curve is short, or the returns curve is not the computed quarterly series — hold the stage word a little more loosely.

→ The stage names the trajectory. Next: the revenue line that produces it, quarter by quarter.

4-Factor Sector Score

42.4/100 — rank 13 of 28 in Credit Services · 70% evidence confidence

Jefferson Capital, Inc. scores 42.4 out of 100 against the 28 companies it is compared with in Credit Services, ranking 13. Balanced evidence: keep at normal research priority and require another comparable period before raising conviction.

The four contributions add to the total exactly: 10.7 + 16.8 + 8.4 + 6.5 = 42.4. This is the SAME number shown on the sector comparison — it is computed once, for the whole peer set, and read here.

What would change it: The read weakens if ROA rolls over or gross NPA rises while sector-relative strength deteriorates.

Revenue For a bank, revenue is everything the franchise earns — interest on the loan book plus fees from its businesses.

Jefferson Capital, Inc. reported $0.2 B of income in the Mar 26 quarter, +20.0% year on year. That is the 9th straight quarter of year-on-year growth. Over 2 years it has compounded at 38.1% a year. The last full year, FY25, came in at $0.6 B. The last four reported quarters add to $0.6 B.

Jefferson Capital, Inc. reported $0.2 B of income in the Mar 26 quarter, +20.0% year on year. That is the 9th straight quarter of year-on-year growth. Over 2 years it has compounded at 38.1% a year. The last full year, FY25, came in at $0.6 B. The last four reported quarters add to $0.6 B.

FY25 revenue came in at $0.6 B (+41.9% on the year), capping 2 years at 38.1% compound. The latest quarter (Mar 26) printed $0.2 B, +20.0% year on year — the 9th consecutive quarter of year-over-year growth.

Pace check: the last four quarters averaged +32.9% growth against the decade's 38.1% — the current year is running slower than its own long-run rate.

Acceleration check: trailing-twelve-month revenue grew +31.2% over the last 4 quarters against +36.1%/yr over the last 8 — rolling over; TTM profit +6.3% vs +19.0%/yr — rolling over.

→ Revenue grew — did the net margin hold as it scaled? Next: 22.2% this quarter (−17.8 pp YoY).

Net margin Net margin — what the bank keeps of every $100 of revenue after every cost, provision and tax. With big fee businesses in the mix, it is the cleanest margin we can read for this bank.

Jefferson Capital, Inc.'s net margin is 22.2% in the Mar 26 quarter, −17.8 percentage points against the same quarter a year ago. Across 3 fiscal years the net margin has ranged 30.2% to 34.4%. The current quarter is running below every full year in that window.

Jefferson Capital, Inc.'s net margin is 22.2% in the Mar 26 quarter, −17.8 percentage points against the same quarter a year ago. Across 3 fiscal years the net margin has ranged 30.2% to 34.4%. The current quarter is running below every full year in that window.

The latest quarter's net margin is 22.2%, −17.8 pp against the same quarter a year ago. Across 3 fiscal years the net margin has ranged 30.2%–34.4%.

Why: the numbers show the net margin move clearly, but the cost lines behind it sit below what we hold — so we state the move without inventing its driver.

→ The net margin slipped — did that reach the bottom line? Next: profit −33.3% in the latest quarter.

Net profit Net profit is what survives every cost, interest and tax — the number EPS, dividends and book value all grow from.

Jefferson Capital, Inc. earned $0.0 B of net profit in the Mar 26 quarter, −33.3% year on year. Full-year FY25 profit was $0.2 B. The 2-year compound rate is 31.4%. That is 22.2% of the quarter's revenue. The same quarter a year earlier earned $0.1 B.

Jefferson Capital, Inc. earned $0.0 B of net profit in the Mar 26 quarter, −33.3% year on year. Full-year FY25 profit was $0.2 B. The 2-year compound rate is 31.4%. That is 22.2% of the quarter's revenue. The same quarter a year earlier earned $0.1 B.

Mar 26 profit was $0.0 B, −33.3% year on year. On the full year, FY25 printed $0.2 B (+46.2%), and the 2-year compound rate is 31.4%.

🚨 Why profit moved: revenue contributed +20.0% and the margin −17.8 pp — the quarter was revenue-led despite a thinner margin.

Pace comparison, last four quarters: profit +16.7% vs revenue +32.9%. Profit is growing slower than sales — costs are eating the growth before it reaches the bottom line.

→ Profit is up — how clean is the loan book behind it? Next: we hold no quarterly loan-book numbers — the section says so plainly.

Asset quality — the ladder Gross NPA is the slice of the loan book where repayments have stopped. Net NPA is what remains after the money already set aside against those loans. Falling is healing; rising is damage arriving.

Loan-book quality history is not available for Jefferson Capital, Inc., so this section names the gap rather than estimating a ratio. No gross or net non-performing-asset series is filed in a form this page can read, and none is inferred from the profit line. The income, margin and return sections above carry the evidence this business does report.

We do not hold quarterly loan-book quality numbers for this bank, so this section states that plainly rather than working around it.

Why: loan-book quality is the engine room of a bank, and its drivers — slippages, recoveries, provisioning — sit below what we hold for this name; the sections around it carry the reads we can stand behind.

→ Behind the profits — is the book itself still growing? Next: revenue grew +41.9% in FY25.

The loan book We read the loan book through revenue — when the book and the businesses grow, revenue grows with them. It is a rough proxy, and we say so: rate moves and fee swings can shift it a few points in any one year.

Jefferson Capital, Inc.'s revenue grew +41.9% in FY25 to $0.6 B, so the book is growing. The latest quarter ran +20.0% year on year. The net margin on that income is 22.2%, −17.8 percentage points against a year ago. Interest income is a proxy for the book; rate moves can shift it a few points in any one year.

FY25 revenue was $0.6 B, +41.9% on the year, and the latest quarter ran +20.0% year on year. The net margin on that revenue is 22.2% this quarter (−17.8 pp YoY) — growth with a narrowing margin on it.

The synthesis: a lender compounds when the book grows while the margin holds and the loan book stays clean — with quarterly loan-quality numbers missing here, revenue growth and margin are the two we watch.

→ Does all of this actually earn its keep on equity? Next: ROE is 37%.

Returns on equity and assets Two numbers rate a bank: ROE — what it earns on shareholder money — and ROA — what it earns on everything it deploys. ROE above ~13–15% earns its keep; below that, growth builds book slowly.

Jefferson Capital, Inc. earns a return on equity of 40% in FY25. Its trough over the ladder below was 34% in FY24. On the asset side every $100 of the balance sheet earned about $12.29, which is the return before leverage is applied.

FY25 ROE came in at 40%, recovered from a FY24 trough of 34%. On assets, the latest reading is about 12.29% — every $100 the bank deploys earns roughly $12.29 a year. That clears the bar a bank must beat for its book value to compound.

Why ROE moved: profit compounded 31.4% a year over 2 years while the equity base grew more slowly — earnings recovering faster than book value builds is what lifts ROE off a trough.

→ Who owns this bank, and are they adding or leaving? Next: short interest is 7.6% of the float.

Dividend A dividend is cash paid out per share. Dividend per share is the declared amount for the period; the trailing twelve-month total is the four most recent quarters added together.

Jefferson Capital, Inc. has 3 quarters of declared dividends on file — too few for a trailing-twelve-month figure. The most recent declaration was $0.24 for Mar 26.

Jefferson Capital, Inc. has 3 quarters of declared dividends on file — too few for a trailing-twelve-month figure. The most recent declaration was $0.24 for Mar 26.

Jefferson Capital, Inc. has declared a dividend in 3 of the last 12 reported quarters, most recently $0.24 for Mar 26. That is fewer than four quarters, so no trailing-twelve-month total is shown rather than one built from a partial year.

→ A payout is cash leaving the business. Next: what the balance sheet looks like behind it.

Debt

For a bank, borrowings are raw material, not a warning sign — solvency is read through the returns and the loan book. A manufacturer’s debt is a claim against its profits, so the debt-to-equity lens that works everywhere else misleads on a lender and is not applied here.

A manufacturer’s debt is a claim against its profits; a bank’s borrowings are its inventory — money taken in to be lent out. The debt lens that works everywhere else misleads here, so this page does not apply it. The solvency questions for a bank — is the loan book sound, is the equity earning — are read through the loan-book and returns sections above.

→ Who owns this, and are they adding or leaving? Next: short interest is 7.6% of the float.

Ownership There is no quarter-by-quarter holder register to read here, so we read the crowd through short interest — the slice of tradable shares currently sold short, positioned for a fall.

7.6% of Jefferson Capital, Inc.'s tradable float is currently sold short — some money is positioned against it. At typical trading volumes those positions would take about 2.9 days to buy back. There is no quarter-by-quarter holder register to read for this filer, so the crowd is read through short interest instead.

The latest reading: 7.6% of the float is sold short, and at typical trading volumes it would take about 2.9 days to buy those positions back. Some money is positioned against it. This is a single point-in-time reading — we do not yet hold its history, so we show no trend chart.

Why it sits there: who is doing the shorting, and why, does not travel with the number — the level is shown without inventing its story.

→ One last check: does the safety math agree? Next: the balance-sheet safety line.

Safety line The Z-score estimates how far a company sits from balance-sheet distress — above roughly 3 is safe, below roughly 1.8 is the danger zone. It was built for manufacturers, so it is not applied to banks and lenders.

Jefferson Capital, Inc.: the Z-score is omitted — it was built for manufacturers, not banks, and applying it here would be theatre. The Z-score was built for manufacturers and is not applied to banks and lenders, so solvency here is read from the capital and asset-quality lines instead.

The safety line in one sentence: the Z-score is omitted — it was built for manufacturers, not banks, and applying it here would be theatre.

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